Flood events, fatalities and damages in India from 1978 to 2006

High temporal and spatial variability of rainfall qualifies India to be highly vulnerable to floods. Recurring floods of various magnitudes play havoc with the lives and property of the people, leading to unplanned development and unchecked environmental degradation, thwarting and retarding the overall development of the country. Therefore, the purpose of the present study is to analyze the types and trends in terms of flood events, frequency, number of people killed, injured, missing and economic damage both in space and time on the basis of a nationwide database published by India Meteorological Department, Pune, from 1978 to 2006. Analysis of these long-term data has revealed that 2,443 flood events claimed about 44,991 lives with the average of 1,551 lives each year. In terms of population size, these figures translate into a loss of 1.5 human lives per million of the population. A majority (56 %) of flood fatalities were caused during severe flood events. However, the frequency of these events was just 19 % in comparison with heavy rainfall events (65 %). In spatial context, flood-related fatalities are distributed all over the country with highest fatalities in Uttar Pradesh (17 %), Maharashtra (13 %), and Bihar and Gujarat (10 % each). Most fatalities occurred during the summer season monsoon months of August (30 %) followed by July (29 %) and September (20 %). The country suffered a cumulative flood-related economic loss of about 16 billion US$ between 1978 and 2006 and a maximum economic loss of 1.6 billion US$ in the year 2000 alone. The study further suggests that both flood events and fatalities have increased in India over a period of time.     

Resilience,vulnerability and adaptive capacity of an inland rural town prone to flooding: a climate change adaptation case study of Charleville,Queensland, Australia

Australia is currently experiencing climate change effects in the form of higher temperatures and more frequent extreme events, such as floods. Floods are its costliest form of natural disaster accounting for losses estimated at over $300 million per annum. This article presents an historical case study of climate adaptation of an Australian town that is subject to frequent flooding. Charleville is a small, inland rural town in Queensland situated on an extensive flood plain, with no significant elevated areas available for relocation. The study aimed to gain an understanding of the vulnerability, resilience and adaptive capacity of this community by studying the 2008 flood event. Structured questionnaires were administered in personal interviews in February 2010 to householders and businesses affected by the 2008 flood, and to institutional personnel servicing the region (n = 91). Data were analysed using appropriate quantitative and qualitative techniques. Charleville was found to be staunchly resilient, with high levels of organisation and cooperation, and well-developed and functioning social and institutional networks. The community is committed to remaining in the town despite the prospect of continued future flooding. Its main vulnerabilities included low levels of insurance cover (32% residents, 43% businesses had cover) and limited monitoring data to warn of impending flooding. Detailed flood modelling and additional river height gauging stations are needed to enable more targeted evacuations. Further mitigation works (e.g., investigate desilting Bradley’s Gully and carry out an engineering assessment) and more affordable insurance products are needed. Regular information on how residents can prepare for floods and the roles different organisations play are suggested. A key finding was that residents believe they have a personal responsibility for preparation and personal mitigation activities, and these activities contribute substantially to Charleville’s ability to respond to and cope with flood events. More research into the psychological impacts of floods is recommended. Charleville is a valuable representation of climate change adaptation and how communities facing natural disasters should organise and operate.     

Probabilistic flood risk analysis considering morphological dynamics and dike failure

A comprehensive flood risk assessment should aim not only at quantifying uncertainties but also the variability of risk over time. In this study, an efficient modelling framework was proposed to perform probabilistic hazard and risk analysis in dike-protected river systems accounting for morphological variability and uncertainty. The modelling framework combined the use of: (1) continuous synthetic discharge forcing, (2) a stochastic dike breach model dynamically coupled to a stochastic unsteady one-dimensional hydraulic model (MIKE1D) describing river flows, (3) a catalogue of pre-run probabilistic inundation maps (MIKE SHE) and (4) a damage and loss model (CAPRA). The methodology was applied using continuous simulations to a 45-km reach of the Upper Koshi River, Nepal, to investigate the changes in breach and flood hazards and subsequent risks after 2 and 5 years of probable river bed aggradation. The study results indicated an increase in annual average loss of 4% per year driven by changes in loss distribution in the most frequent loss return periods (20–500 years). The use of continuous simulations and dike breach model also provided a more robust estimation of risk metrics as compared to traditional binary treatment of flood defence and/or the direct association of flow with loss return periods. The results were helpful to illustrate the potential impacts of dynamic river morphology, dike failure and continuous simulation and their significance when devising flood risk study methodologies.     

Medium-scale natural disaster risk scenario analysis: a case study of Pingyang County, Wenzhou, China

A series of empirical studies involving typhoon rainstorm and flood risk scenario analysis were carried out on a medium spatial scale, covering Pingyang County. Considering a rainstorm/water-logging conversion process, active flooding submergence and per unit area values (million yuan/km²), two typical risk scenarios (50- and 100-year frequency) were simulated and analyzed. The study revealed that high-risk areas distributed across the towns of Aojiang, Qiancang and Xiaojiang, with a maximum submerged depth of 4.61 m for a 100-year flood hazard. In the case of a disaster loss rate >65 %, the potential maximum loss could be more than 10 million yuan/km². For medium-scale disaster risk, more attention must be paid to catastrophic events, which have a low probability of occurrence but would induce great losses. An amended risk formula could determine the degree of priority for responses to hazards of equal risk value better. In Pingyang County, the 50-year flood risk for Kunyang, Aojiang, Qiancang and Xiaojiang is greater than that of 100-year events for the next 50 years. However, these areas should give priority to their responses to 100-year disaster events during the next 100 years. In addition, the attention of disaster risk should vary in different spatial regions.     

Climate and solar signals in property damage losses from hurricanes affecting the United States

The authors show that historical property damage losses from US hurricanes contain climate signals. The methodology is based on a statistical model that combines a specification for the number of loss events with a specification for the amount of loss per event. Separate models are developed for annual and extreme losses. A Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure is used to generate posterior samples from the models. Results indicate the chance of at least one loss event increases when the springtime north–south surface pressure gradient over the North Atlantic is weaker than normal, the Atlantic ocean is warmer than normal, El Ni?o is absent, and sunspots are few. However, given at least one loss event, the magnitude of the loss per annum is related only to ocean temperature. The 50-year return level for a loss event is largest under a scenario featuring a warm Atlantic Ocean, a weak North Atlantic surface pressure gradient, El Ni?o, and few sunspots. The work provides a framework for anticipating hurricane losses on seasonal and multi-year time scales.     

Does a Kuznets curve apply to flood fatality? A holistic study for China and Japan

A Kuznets curve is the graphical representation of Simon Kuznets’ hypothesis that as a country develops, there is a natural cycle of economic inequality driven by market forces, which at first increase inequality and then decrease it after a certain average income is attained. The concept has been applied to environmental studies hypothesizing that the relationship between per capita income and the use of natural resources and/or the emission of wastes has an inverted-U shape. This paper presents a holistic study aimed at validating the applicability of the Kuznets curve to flood disaster. The focus is China and Japan. Both countries are prone to flooding and have experienced great economic growth. Data analysis detected the turning points of annual flood fatality in both countries, and the change in annual flood fatality with economic growth in both countries was found to match the Kuznets curve. However, the variation pattern of annual flood-caused economic loss was different between China and Japan. The difference may be partially attributed to the difference in residential characteristics between the two countries. Besides, it was found that climate change affected the flood-caused economic loss in Japan over recent decades. Furthermore, the variations in annual flood fatality and economic loss in the largest city of China were also analyzed.     

Projected impacts of land use and road network changes on increasing flood hazards using a 4D GIS: A case study in Makkah metropolitan area,Saudi Arabia

Makkah City, west of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, is considered the third main highly populated metropolitan area in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. It exhibits two unique features that increase the hazardous flood consequences: (1) its topography is very complex and (2) about three million Muslims are gathered annually in Makkah to perform Hajj over a 2-week period. Floods are natural returning hydrological phenomena that have been affecting human lives. The objectives of the current study are: (1) identification of land use types and road networks in Makkah, (2) hydrological modeling of flood characteristics in Makkah based on precise up-to-date databases, (3) examination of the relationship between land use, land cover changes, transportation network expansion, and the floods' prosperities and hazards, and (4) development of digital hydrological maps for present and near future flood hazards in Makkah. The attained results show that the mean runoff depth and the total flood volume are significantly increased from 2010 to 2030. Additionally, it has been found that a great part of the road network in Makkah City is subjected to high dangerous flood impacts. The overall length of flood danger-factor roads is increased from 481 km (with almost 37 %) to 1,398 km (with 74 % approximately) between 2010 and 2030. Thus, it is concluded that urbanization has a direct strong relationship with flood hazards. Consequently, it is recommended that the attained results should be taken into account by decision makers in implementing new development planning of the Makkah metropolitan area.     

A complete and homogeneous magnitude earthquake catalogue of Iraq

A complete and homogeneous magnitude earthquake catalogue spanning the period 1900 to 2010 was created. The catalogue covers the area 29° to 37.5° N and 39° to 48° E. Entries in the new earthquake catalogue were cross checked and additions made from various sources of earthquake records to ensure that repetitions are not included in this analysis. Events were considered duplicates if they had a time difference of 10 s or less and space origin difference of 0.5° or less. In a given set of duplicate events, an event, which had a magnitude and International Seismological Center source, was retained as the record of the event. The unified magnitude scale, the moment magnitude (M _w), was applied throughout the catalogue. The M _w for 18 events was reported. The M _w for other events was estimated using empirical relations between m _b, M _s, M _L, and M _w. Magnitude of completeness, M _c, was estimated using the maximum curvature. It was 4.3 M _w. Finally, a list of 213 events from 1900 to 2010 with M _w?≥?4.3 is presented. The list is considered complete for the period from 1962 to 2010.     

Floods in Greece, a statistical and spatial approach

Flooding is one of the most important types of disasters in southern Europe recording many victims and extended damages over the last century. The increased pressure for urban expansion together with the high population density has increased flood risk considerably in the region. Greece is not an exception in this regime, having a very rich flooding record since the ancient times. In this work, an extensive catalogue of flooding phenomena during the last 130?years in Greece has been compiled based on numerous sources. Based on this record the temporal and spatial distribution of flood events and victims was examined. In total, 545 events were identified, causing 686 human casualties and inflicting extensive damage across the country. Results showed seasonality patterns with more events clustering in November. They also showed that urban environments tend to present a higher flood recurrence rates than mountainous and rural areas. An increasing trend in reported flood event numbers during the last decades was discovered, even though the number of human casualties remains relatively stable during the same period. Moreover, spatial patterns were identified highlighting areas and administrational entities with higher flood recurrence rates across the country.     

The need for data: natural disasters and the challenges of database management

Hundreds of natural catastrophes occur worldwide every year—there were 780 loss events per year on average over the last 10 years. Since 1980, these disasters have claimed over two million lives and caused losses worth US$ 3,000 billion. The deadliest disasters were caused by earthquakes: the tsunami following the Sumatra quake (2004) and the Haiti earthquake (2010) claimed more than 220,000 lives each. The Great East Japan Earthquake of 11 March 2011 was the costliest natural disaster of all times, with total losses of US$ 210 billion. Hurricane Katrina, in 2005, was the second costliest disaster, with total losses of US$ 140 billion (in 2010 values). To ensure that high-quality natural disaster analyses can be performed, the data have to be collected, checked and managed with a high degree of expertise and professionality. Scientists, governmental and non-governmental organisations and the finance industry make use of global databases that contain losses attributable to natural catastrophes. At present, there are three global and multi-peril loss databases: NatCatSERVICE (Munich Re), Sigma (Swiss Re) and EM-Dat (Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters). They are supplemented by numerous databases focusing on national or regional issues, certain hazards and specific sectors. This paper outlines the criteria and definitions relating to how global and multi-peril databases are operated, and the efforts being made to ensure consistent and internationally recognised standards of data management. In addition, it presents the concept and methodology underlying the NatCatSERVICE database, and points out the many challenges associated with data acquisition and data management.     

1980—2019年新疆南部不同强度暴雨洪水灾害的空间分布和时间变化特征

以1980—2019年新疆南部出现的暴雨洪水灾害事件造成的死亡人数、倒塌房屋数、倒塌棚圈数、牲畜死亡数、受灾面积作为灾情要素,采用比值权重法和无量纲化线性求和,构建了暴雨洪水灾害事件的灾损指数。根据灾损指数,采用百分位数法将每次暴雨洪水灾害事件定量划分为一般、较重、严重、特重四个等级。结果表明：新疆南部暴雨洪水事件在塔里木盆地北缘多于南缘,西部多于东部,高值区集中在阿克苏地区、喀什地区、克孜勒苏柯尔克孜自治州一带;暴雨洪水事件多发在3—10月,年出现次数呈现明显上升趋势,增幅为8次·（10a）^-1,主要表现为一般性灾害发生频次的增加;新疆南部暴雨洪水灾害年平均灾损指数在1985年和1999年发生两次突变,平均值表现出“低—高—低”阶段性变化;暴雨洪水灾害发生次数与3—10月降水量、大雨发生日数、暴雨发生日数密切相关。近40年来新疆南部降水量的增多,导致暴雨洪水灾害次数增加;年平均灾损指数与特重和严重灾害发生次数关系密切,后者对其贡献率达87%。     

The sun-hurricane connection: Diagnosing the solar impacts on hurricane frequency over the North Atlantic basin using a space–time model

The authors define a spatio-statistical response of hurricane frequency to the solar cycle. Previous research indicates reduced (increased) hurricane intensities and frequency in the western (eastern) tropical Atlantic. However, no formal quantitative relationship has been spatially established between hurricane frequency and solar activity. The authors use a Bayesian hierarchical space–time model, an increasingly popular approach due to its advantage in facilitating regression modeling of space–time phenomena in the context of large data sets. Regional hurricane frequency over the period 1866–2010 is examined in response to September sunspot number (SSN) while controlling for other relevant climate factors. The response features a 13 % reduction in probability of annual hurricane occurrence for southeastern Cuba, the southern Bahama islands, Haiti, and Jamaica when the SSN is 80 sunspots. In contrast, hurricane risk in regions of the southeastern Atlantic is predicted to increase by 73 % when the SSN is 160 sunspots. The model can be ported to explore other relationships over contiguous space.     

Global Perspectives on Loss of Human Life Caused by Floods

Every year floods cause enormous damage all over the world. This study investigates loss of human life statistics for different types of floods and different regions on a global scale. The OFDA/CRED Database contains data on international disasters and is maintained by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters in Brussels (CRED) in cooperation with United States Office for Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA). Information from this source on a large number of flood events, which occurred between January 1975 and June 2002, is evaluated with respect to flood location and flood type. Due to the limited availability of information on coastal flood events, the scope of this study is limited to three types of freshwater flooding: river floods, flash floods and drainage problems. First, the development of loss of life statistics over time is discussed. Second, the dataset is analysed by region, by flood type and by the combination of type and region. The study shows that flash floods result in the highest average mortality per event (the number of fatalities divided by the number of affected persons). A cross analysis by flood type and location shows that average mortality is relatively constant for the different types over various continents, while the magnitude of the impacts (numbers of killed) and affected for a certain type varies between the different continents. On a worldwide scale Asian river floods are most significant in terms of number of persons killed and affected. Finally, a comparison with figures for other types of natural disasters shows that floods are the most significant disaster type in terms of the number of persons affected.     

Adaptation to climate change in the insurance sector: examples from the UK,Germany and the Netherlands

Adaptation to climate change, particularly flood risks, may come to pose large challenges in the future and will require cooperation among a range of stakeholders. However, there presently exists little research especially on the integration of the private sector in adaptation. In particular, recently developed state programs for adaptation have so far been focused on the public sector. Insurance providers may have much to contribute as they offer other parts of society services to appropriately identify, assess and reduce the financial impacts of climate change-induced risks. This study aims to explore how the institutional distribution of responsibility for flood risk is being renegotiated within the UK, Germany and Netherlands. Examining how the insurance industry and the public sector can coordinate their actions to promote climate change adaptation, the study discusses how layered natural hazard insurance systems may result from attempts to deal with increasing risks due to increasing incidences of extreme events and climate change. It illustrates that concerns over the risks from extreme natural events have prompted re-assessments of the current systems, with insurance requiring long-term legislative frameworks that defines the objectives and responsibilities of insurers and the different political authorities.     

Monitoring the temporal development of natural hazard risks as a basis indicator for climate change adaptation

The potential effects of climatic changes on natural risks are widely discussed. But the formulation of strategies for adapting risk management practice to climate changes requires knowledge of the related risks for people and economic values. The main goals of this work were (1) the development of a method for analysing and comparing risks induced by different natural hazard types, (2) highlighting the most relevant natural hazard processes and related damages, (3) the development of an information system for the monitoring of the temporal development of natural hazard risk and (4) the visualisation of the resulting information for the wider public. A comparative exposure analysis provides the basis for pointing out the hot spots of natural hazard risks in the province of Carinthia, Austria. An analysis of flood risks in all municipalities provides the basis for setting the priorities in the planning of flood protection measures. The methods form the basis for a monitoring system that periodically observes the temporal development of natural hazard risks. This makes it possible firstly to identify situations in which natural hazard risks are rising and secondly to differentiate between the most relevant factors responsible for the increasing risks. The factors that most influence the natural risks could be made evident and eventual climate signals could be pointed out. Only with this information can the discussion about potential increases in natural risks due to climate change be separated from other influencing factors and be made at an objective level.     

Analysis of 2010-flood causes, nature and magnitude in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan

This article attempts to analyse the nature, magnitude and causes of 2010 disastrous flood that seriously affected the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK), Pakistan. Pakistan is famous for its summer floods, but the flood of 2010 is considered to be the century’s worst. It has broken all the previous records in terms of discharge, damages and amount of rainfall occurred. Most of the meteorological stations have received rainfall above normal. Data for this study were collected both from primary and secondary sources. A total 150 questionnaires were filled in from the flood victims. However, secondary data were obtained from the Pakistan Meteorology Department, Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre, Federal Flood Commission, Provincial Disaster Management Authority, National Disaster Management Authority, Surface Water Hydrology Department and Provincial Irrigation and Drainage Authority. The analysis reveals that heavy and prolonged rainfall for four consecutive days (27–30 July) was the major cause of 2010-flood. In addition to this, the development of unusual low pressure zone over the northern Pakistan, aggradations of river bed, rapid deforestation, ponding back of river by motorway, blocking of bridges by tree trunks and subsequent bursting of temporary dams have played their role in causing the disastrous flood in almost all the rivers of KPK. This has inflicted terrible damages to human lives, standing crops, housing, infrastructure and other properties.     

Individual and societal risk owing to landslides in the Campania region (southern Italy)

This paper deals with the estimation of both individual and societal risks owing to landslides in the Campania region (southern Italy) thanks to the availability of an extensive catalogue of historical incident data spanning from the 5^th century up to now. Individual risk is estimated by computing the landslide mortality rate. Societal risk is measured by plotting the annual frequency F of events causing N or more fatalities against the number N of fatalities (i.e. an F–N curve). The results obtained show that in Campania both individual and societal risks owing to landslides are very high when compared to similar risks of the Italian territory. Moreover, the analysis of the incident data clearly highlights the most prone areas to catastrophic events, essentially related to the occurrence of flow-like fast-moving phenomena, where the societal risk is proved to be one of the highest in Europe.     

新疆洪灾时间序列突变及其气候原因分析

利用统计方法对新疆农田洪灾成灾面积和洪灾次数时间序列进行了非参数突变检验, 发现新疆农田洪灾成灾面积和洪灾次数时间序列在1980年代中后期发生了明显的突变.突变现象在洪灾直接经济损失上也有明显表现, 主要表现为洪灾直接经济损失在1980年代中后期出现了明显的差异, 即1980年代中后期以前损失较低, 之后急剧增大.在分析了洪灾序列和降水序列的相关关系的基础上, 认为1980年代中后期新疆洪灾损失突变的主要原因之一是此时期新疆气候发生了由干到湿的转折.     

Repeated glacial-lake outburst floods in Patagonia: an increasing hazard?

Five similar glacial-lake outburst floods (GLOFs) occurred in April, October, December 2008, March and September 2009 in the Northern Patagonia Icefield. On each occasion, Cachet 2 Lake, dammed by the Colonia Glacier, released circa 200-million m³ water into the Colonia River. Refilling has occurred rapidly, such that further outbreak floods can be expected. Pipeflow calculations of the subglacial tunnel drainage and 1D hydraulic models of the river flood give consistent results, with an estimated peak discharge surpassing 3,000 m³ s^?1. These floods were larger in magnitude than any flood on record, according to gauged data since 1963. However, geomorphological analysis of the Colonia valley shows physical evidence of former catastrophic outburst floods from a larger glacial-lake, with flood discharges possibly as high as 16,000 m³ s^?1. Due to potential impacts of climate change on glacier dynamics in the area, jökulhlaups may increase future flood risks for infrastructure and population. This is particularly relevant in view of the current development of hydropower projects in Chilean Patagonia.     

How Accurate are Disaster Loss Data? The Case of U.S. Flood Damage

Policy makers need accurate disaster loss data for decisions about disaster assistance, policy evaluation, and scientific research priorities. But loss estimation is difficult in a disaster situation, and initial loss estimates are seldom evaluated in comparison with actual costs. This paper uses the example of historical flood damage data in the U.S. to evaluate disaster loss data. It evaluates the accuracy of historical flood damage estimates from two federal agencies. The U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) has compiled annual flood loss estimates for each state since 1955. Comparison of the NWS data with similar estimates from five state emergency management agencies reveals substantial disagreement between estimates from different sources. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) began in the 1990s to systematically collect damage estimates and cost data associated with its disaster assistance programs. Comparison of early damage estimates with actual expenditures in a California flood disaster reveals large errors in some estimates for individual counties, but no statistically significant tendency to underestimate or overestimate. Positive and negative errors tend to average out and the total damage estimate for the state approximates the final expenditures. Both comparisons indicate that damage estimates for small events or local jurisdictions often are extremely inaccurate. On the other hand, estimates aggregated over large areas or long time periods appear to be reasonably reliable; that is, this study finds that independent estimates for events with losses greater than $500 million disagree by less than 40. The paper suggests ways of interpreting and using such loss estimates to reduce the likelihood of misinterpretation.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.