Balloon-borne observations of mid-latitude stratospheric water vapour: comparisons with HALOE and MLS satellite data

We present here in situ measurements obtained between 1991 and 2011 in outer-vortex conditions by the ELHYSA balloon-borne frost-point hygrometer. The frost-point hygrometer profiles are used for comparisons with the satellite data from version 19 (v19) and version 3.3 (v3.3) of the HALogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) and the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) respectively. Potential Vorticity mapping is applied to all data sets to remove contributions of transient tropical intrusions and polar vortex air masses and hence ensure consistent comparisons between the balloon and satellite observations. Our selected balloon in situ observations are too sparse to directly infer mid-latitude stratospheric time series for continuous comparisons with HALOE and MLS records or derive water vapour trends but can be used to validate the satellite data. A mean difference of ?0.83?±?1.58 % (?0.04?±?0.07 ppmv) is obtained between HALOE v19 data and the balloon frost-point observations (with respect to HALOE) over the 30–80 hPa altitude range. The hygrometer-HALOE differences appear time-dependent as already presented in the literature. The mean difference reaches 2.80?±?0.96 % (0.13?±?0.04 ppmv) for MLS v3.3, with MLS systematically wetter than the balloon data reflecting a systematic bias between both datasets. We use our balloon data as reference to provide some information about the HALOE-MLS difference. From post-2000 ELHYSA-HALOE and ELHYSA-MLS comparisons, we find a HALOE-MLS difference matching the expected bias, with MLS v3.3 6.60?±?2.80 % (0.27?±?0.11 ppmv) wetter than HALOE v19. From the results obtained from our balloon-satellite data comparisons, we finally discuss the issue about merging the HALOE and MLS data sets to provide stratospheric water vapour trends.     

The frequency, intensity, and diurnal cycle of precipitation in surface and satellite observations over low- and mid-latitudes

Global precipitation data sets with high spatial and temporal resolution are needed for many applications, but they were unavailable before the recent creation of several such satellite products. Here, we evaluate four different satellite data sets of hourly or 3-hourly precipitation (namely CMORPH, PERSIANN, TRMM 3B42 and a microwave-only product referred to as MI) by comparing the spatial patterns in seasonal mean precipitation amount, daily precipitation frequency and intensity, and the diurnal and semidiurnal cycles among them and with surface synoptic weather reports. We found that these high-resolution products show spatial patterns in seasonal mean precipitation amount comparable to other monthly products for the low- and mid-latitudes, and the mean daily precipitation frequency and intensity maps are similar among these pure satellite-based precipitation data sets and consistent with the frequency derived using weather reports over land. The satellite data show that spatial variations in mean precipitation amount come largely from precipitation frequency rather than intensity, and that the use of satellite infrared (IR) observations to improve sampling does not change the mean frequency, intensity and the diurnal cycle significantly. Consistent with previous studies, the satellite data show that sub-daily variations in precipitation are dominated by the 24-h cycle, which has an afternoon–evening maximum and mean-to-peak amplitude of 30–100% of the daily mean in precipitation amount over most land areas during summer. Over most oceans, the 24-h harmonic has a peak from midnight to early morning with an amplitude of 10–30% during both winter and summer. These diurnal results are broadly consistent with those based on the weather reports, although the time of maximum in the satellite precipitation is a few hours later (especially for TRMM and PERSIANN) than that in the surface observations over most land and ocean, and it is closer to the phase of showery precipitation from the weather reports. The TRMM and PERSIANN precipitation shows a spatially coherent time of maximum around 0300–0600 local solar time (LST) for a weak (amplitude <20%) semi-diurnal (12-h) cycle over most mid- to high-latitudes, comparable to 0400–0600 LST in the surface data. The satellite data also confirm the notion that the diurnal cycle of precipitation amount comes mostly from its frequency rather than its intensity over most low and mid-latitudes, with the intensity has only about half of the strength of the diurnal cycle in the frequency and amount. The results suggest that these relatively new precipitation products can be useful for many applications.     

Temperature and precipitation in the context of the annual cycle over Asia: Model evaluation and future change

Since the early or late arrival of monsoon rainfall can be devastating to agriculture and economy, the prediction of the onset of monsoon is a very important issue. The Asian monsoon is characterized by a strong annual cycle with rainy summer and dry winter. Nevertheless, most of monsoon studies have focused on the seasonal-mean of temperature and precipitation. The present study aims to evaluate a total of 27 coupled models that participated in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) for projection of the time evolution and the intensity of Asian monsoon on the basis of the annual cycle of temperature and precipitation. And future changes of onset, retreat, and intensity of monsoon are analyzed. Four models for good seasonal-mean (GSM) and good harmonic (GH) groups, respectively, are selected. GSM is based on the seasonal-mean of temperature and precipitation in summer and winter, and GH is based on the annual cycle of temperature and precipitation which represents a characteristic of the monsoon. To compare how well the time evolution of the monsoon is simulated in each group, the onset, retreat, and duration of Asian monsoon are examined. The highest pattern correlation coefficient (PCC) of onset, retreat, and duration between the reanalysis data and model outputs demonstrates that GH models’ MME predicts time evolution of monsoon most precisely, with PCC values of 0.80, 0.52, and 0.63, respectively. To predict future changes of the monsoon, the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP 4.5) experiments for the period of 2073-2099 are compared with historical simulations for the period of 1979-2005 from CMIP5 using GH models’ MME. The Asian monsoon domain is expanded by 22.6% in the future projection. The onset date in the future is advanced over most parts of Asian monsoon region. The duration of summer Asian monsoon in the future projection will be lengthened by up to 2 pentads over the Asian monsoon region, as a result of advanced onset. The Asian monsoon intensity becomes stronger with the passage of time. This study has important implication for assessment of CMIP5 models in terms of the prediction of time evolution and intensity of Asian monsoon based on the annual cycle of temperature and precipitation.     

The use of fractional accumulated precipitation for the evaluation of the annual cycle of monsoons

Using pentad rainfall data we demonstrate the benefits of using accumulated rainfall and fractional accumulated rainfall for the evaluation of the annual cycle of rainfall over various monsoon domains. Our approach circumvents issues related to using threshold-based analysis techniques for investigating the life-cycle of monsoon rainfall. In the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-5 models we find systematic errors in the phase of the annual cycle of rainfall. The models are delayed in the onset of summer rainfall over India, the Gulf of Guinea, and the South American Monsoon, with early onset prevalent for the Sahel and the North American Monsoon. This, in combination with the rapid fractional accumulation rate, impacts the ability of the models to simulate the fractional accumulation observed during summer. The rapid fractional accumulation rate and the time at which the accumulation begins are metrics that indicate how well the models concentrate the monsoon rainfall over the peak rainfall season, and the extent to which there is a phase error in the annual cycle. The lack of consistency in the phase error across all domains suggests that a “global” approach to the study of monsoons may not be sufficient to rectify the regional differences. Rather, regional process studies are necessary for diagnosing the underlying causes of the regionally-specific systematic model biases over the different monsoon domains. Despite the afore-mentioned biases, most models simulate well the interannual variability in the date of monsoon onset, the exceptions being models with the most pronounced dry biases. Two methods for estimating monsoon duration are presented, one of which includes nonlinear aspects of the fractional accumulation. The summer fractional accumulation of rainfall provides an objective way to estimate the extent of the monsoon domain, even in models with substantial dry biases for which monsoon is not defined using threshold-based techniques.     

Atmospheric and oceanic heat transport: Simulations versus observations

Poleward transport of heat by the atmosphere as simulated by a recently developed general circulation model (GCM) is consistent with earlier GCM studies in being significantly greater than indicated from radiosonde (weather balloon) observations. However, total heat transport by the combined ocean-atmosphere system appears to be approximately the same in the models and in satellite observations of irradiances at the top of the atmosphere: in the models most of this transport takes place in the atmosphere whereas the combined satellite and radiosonde observations indicate that half or more of the transport takes place in the oceans. It is argued here that the atmospheric model results are generally closer to the truth than the radiosonde observations. If this is true, then the oceans transport less heat than often supposed, and conventional ideas about the genesis of climatic change through alterations in oceanic heat transport must be reexamined.     

A comparison of a GCM simulation of the seasonal cycle of the atmosphere with observations part I: Mean fields and the annual harmonic

Abstract

The seasonal cycle of the GLAS/U of Maryland GCM is analysed in terms of the behaviour of the monthly and seasonal mean fields and the structure of the annual harmonic. (The stationary and transient eddies are treated in a companion paper.)

Both polar regions at upper levels are much too cold in the annual mean, leading to excessive zonal winds above 200 mb. The problem is present in all seasons, but is most severe in local winter. A compensating belt of warm temperatures at lower latitudes is found. It is argued that the inclusion of gravity wave drag is not necessarily the solution to this problem.

The simulated annual harmonics of Northern Hemisphere sea‐level pressure and 200‐mb heights are realistically intense over the eastern continents and weak over the eastern oceans. Problems in the simulation include the anomalously deep Aleutian low and the low values of the height over Europe, both occurring in winter.

The simulation of the annual harmonic in sea‐level pressure and 200‐mb heights in the Southern Hemisphere is realistic. The GCM fails to show the observed amplitude of the annual harmonic in 200‐mb temperature over Antarctica.

The GCM precipitation is too intense over land, particularly in summer. It is suggested that the problem is related to the parametrizations of moist convection and the boundary layer. The seasonal patterns of precipitation over the western tropical Pacific are generally realistic.

There is no evidence that the GCM systematically underestimates momentum flux convergence.     

Trend analysis of precipitation time series in Greece and their relationship with circulation using surface and satellite data: 1955–2001

Summary In this study, the trends of annual and seasonal precipitation time series were examined on the basis of measurements of 22 surface stations in Greece for the period 1955–2001, and satellite data during the period 1980–2001. For this purpose, two statistical tests based on the least square method and one based on the Mann-Kendall test, which is also capable of detecting the starting year of possible climatic discontinuities or changes, are applied. Greece, in general, presents a clear significant downward trend in annual precipitation for the period 1955–2001, which is determined by the respective decreasing trend in winter precipitation. Both winter and annual series exhibit a downward trend with a starting year being 1984. Satellite-derived precipitation time series could be an alternative means for diagnosing the variability of precipitation in Greece and detecting trends provided that they have been adjusted by surface measurements in the wider area of interest. The relationship between precipitation variability in Greece and atmospheric circulation was also examined using correlation analysis with three circulation indices: the well-known North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI), a Mediterranean Oscillation Index (MOI) and a new Mediterranean Circulation Index (MCI). NAOI is the index that presented the most interesting correlation with winter, summer and annual precipitation in Greece, whereas the MOI and MCI were found to explain a significant proportion of annual and summer precipitation variability, respectively. The observed downward trend in winter and annual precipitation in Greece is linked mainly to a rising trend in the hemispheric circulation modes of the NAO, which are connected with the Mediterranean Oscillation Index.     

The variability of annual precipitation in Palestine

Summary The variability of the annual amounts of precipitation over Palestine is discussed by means of a measure called relative interannual variability. The geographical distribution of the values of this measure is drawn in a map and is explained with the aid of the various local climatic conditions. Besides this, a map of the mean annual amounts, of precipitation over Palestine is given (period 1921–1950). Two other measures of variability, namely relative variability and coefficient of variation, are briefly discussed. For the comparison of these three measures correlation coefficients between the average annual rain amounts and each of the three measures are evaluated. They are rather close to one another and, therefore, none of these measures is superior to the other ones.

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Zusammenfassung Mit Hilfe der relativen interannuellen Variabilität wird die Veränderlichkeit der jährlichen Niederschlagshöhen in Palästina untersucht und in einer Karte dargestellt. Die Verteilung der Prozentwerte der relativen interannuellen Variabilität über das Land wird aus den örtlichen klimatischen Bedingungen erklärt. Außerdem wird eine Karte der mittleren Jahresniederschlagsmengen des Landes (Periode 1921–1950) gegeben. Neben dem obengenannten Maß der Veränderlichkeit werden zwei weitere betrachtet, nämlich die relative Variabilität und der Variationskoeffizient. Zum Vergleich der drei Maßzahlen werden die Korrelationskoeffizienten zwischen dem Mittelwert der Jahresniederschlagsmenge und jeder dieser drei Maßzahlen für das ganze Gebiet gebildet und als annähernd gleich groß gefunden, so daß keines der drei Maße ausgezeichnet wird.

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Résumé L'auteur a recherché la variation des précipitations annuelles de Palestine en se basant sur la variabilité relative interannuelle. Ce calcul a permis d'établir une carte de la dite variation, carte couvrant toute la région. La répartition géographique du taux de la variabilité relative interannuelle s'explique par les conditions climatiques locales variées. On donne en outre une carte des précipitations annuelles moyennes du pays (période 1921 à 1950). A part la mesure de la variation citée plus haut, l'auteur a considéré deux autres mesures: la variabilité relative et le coefficient, de variation. Afin de comparer ces trois mesures, il a calculé le coefficient de corrélation existant entre chacune d'elles et la moyenne des précipitations et cela pour toute la région. Il constate que les trois coefficients de corrélation ainsi obtenus ont à peu près la même valeur, si bien qu'aucune des trois mesures considérées n'est préférable aux deux autres.

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A strategy for merging objective estimates of global daily precipitation from gauge observations,satellite estimates,and numerical predictions

This paper describes a strategy for merging daily precipitation information from gauge observations, satellite estimates(SEs), and numerical predictions at the global scale. The strategy is designed to remove systemic bias and random error from each individual daily precipitation source to produce a better gridded global daily precipitation product through three steps.First, a cumulative distribution function matching procedure is performed to remove systemic bias over gauge-located land areas. Then, the overall biases in SEs and model predictions(MPs) over ocean areas are corrected using a rescaled strategy based on monthly precipitation. Third, an optimal interpolation(OI)–based merging scheme(referred as the HL-OI scheme)is used to combine unbiased gauge observations, SEs, and MPs to reduce random error from each source and to produce a gauge—satellite–model merged daily precipitation analysis, called BMEP-d(Beijing Climate Center Merged Estimation of Precipitation with daily resolution), with complete global coverage. The BMEP-d data from a four-year period(2011–14) demonstrate the ability of the merging strategy to provide global daily precipitation of substantially improved quality.Benefiting from the advantages of the HL-OI scheme for quantitative error estimates, the better source data can obtain more weights during the merging processes. The BMEP-d data exhibit higher consistency with satellite and gauge source data at middle and low latitudes, and with model source data at high latitudes. Overall, independent validations against GPCP-1DD(GPCP one-degree daily) show that the consistencies between BMEP-d and GPCP-1DD are higher than those of each source dataset in terms of spatial pattern, temporal variability, probability distribution, and statistical precipitation events.     

基于多套卫星资料的ERA5全球小时降水频率评估

最近发布的新一代全球再分析资料集ERA5,提供了全球小时降水再分析值,为全球小时降水研究提供又一个数据参考。然而,目前针对ERA5小时降水频率的评估工作还较为有限。本研究采用多套全球卫星观测小时降水对ERA5小时降水的频率进行了评估。对比分析发现:尽管ERA5总降水量与卫星资料出现较好的一致性,但ERA5的小时降水频率约为卫星资料的2～3倍,呈现系统性偏高。进一步分析表明,这主要是由于ERA5大大高估了中、低强度降水事件的数量。其中,ERA5对弱降水频率的高估尤为明显,平均可达卫星降水频率的6倍;此外,ERA5对海洋降水频率的高估程度也大于陆地。ERA5小时降水频率的系统性高估问题对相关研究的潜在影响,尚在进一步评估中。     

Evaluation of precipitation trends from high-resolution satellite precipitation products over Mainland China

Climate Dynamics - Many studies have reported the excellent ability of high-resolution satellite precipitation products (0.25° or finer) to capture the spatial distribution of precipitation....     

RTTOV和CRTM对“罗莎”台风卫星微波观测的模拟研究与比较

快速辐射传输模式中水成物辐射效应的考虑对卫星观测模拟具有重要的影响。利用区域中尺度数值模式WRF预报输出水成物含量和温湿廓线等参数,使用欧洲中期数值天气预报中心和美国卫星资料同化联合中心发展建立的快速辐射传输模式RTTOV和CRTM,结合雅可比模式计算得到的响应函数,分析了各种水成物辐射效应对AMSUA/B卫星微波观测各通道亮温模拟的影响,并比较了RTTOV和CRTM结果间的异同。结果表明,RTTOV和CRTM两个快速辐射传输模式计算得到的水成物响应函数和水成物辐射效应对模拟亮温影响特征基本一致,但量级上存在差异。雅可比表征的水成物响应函数和水成物本身的分布层次对应关系良好,云水和雨水的响应函数主要分布在中下层,冰水和雪则分布在中上层。相对于RTTOV,CRTM计算得到的水成物响应函数要大一些。对AMSUA,云水和雨水的辐射效应对通道模拟亮温主要以增温为主,尤其是在低频的窗区通道,冰晶和雪则体现散射效应为主的降温作用。对AMSUB,水成物辐射效应的考虑使得模拟亮温降低,尤其是通道2降温幅度最大。CRTM计算出的水成物辐射效应带来的模拟亮温变化幅度大于RTTOV。目前,CRTM除了考虑云、雨、冰和雪4种水成物外,还考虑霰和雹的辐射效应,对水成物辐射效应的考虑比RTTOV更完善一些。     

A methodology study of the validation of clouds in GCMs using ISCCP satellite observations

The cloudiness fields simulated by a general circulation model and a validation using the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) satellite observations are presented. An adapted methodology is developed, in which the issue of the sub-grid scale variability of the cloud fields, and how it may affect the comparison exercise, is considered carefully. In particular different assumptions about the vertical overlap of cloud layers are made, allowing us to reconstruct the cloud distribution inside a model grid column. Carrying out an analysis directly comparable to that of ISCCP then becomes possible. The relevance of this method is demonstrated by its application to the evaluation of the cloud schemes used in Laboratoire de Météoroligie Dynamique (LMD) general circulation model. We compare cloud properties, such as cloud-top height and cloud optical thickness, analysed by ISCCP and simulated by the LMD GCM. The results show that a direct comparison of simulated low cloudiness and that shown from satellites is not possible. They also reveal some model deficiencies concerning the cloud vertical distribution. Some of these features depend little on the cloud overlap assumption and may reveal inadequate parameterisation of the boundary layer mixing or the cloud water precipitation rate. High convective clouds also appear to be too thick.     

Microwave vegetation optical depth and inverse modelling of soil emissivity using Nimbus/SMMR satellite observations

Summary A radiative transfer model has been used to determine the large scale effective 6.6 GHz and 37 GHz optical depths of the vegetation cover. Knowledge of the vegetation optical depth is important for satellite-based large scale soil moisture monitoring using microwave radiometry. The study is based on actual observed large scale surface soil moisture data and observed dual polarization 6.6 and 37 GHz Nimbus/SMMR brightness temperatures over a 3-year period. The derived optical depths have been compared with microwave polarization differences and polarization ratios in both frequencies and with Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values from NOAA/AVHRR. A synergistic approach to derive surface soil emissivity from satellite observed brightness temperatures by inverse modelling is described. This approach improves the relationship between satellite derived surface emissivity and large scale top soil moisture fromR ²=0.45 (no correction for vegetation) toR ²=0.72 (after correction for vegetation). This study also confirms the relationship between the microwave-based MPDI and NDVI earlier described and explained in the literature.List of Symbols f frequency [Hz] - f _i(p) fractional absorption at polarizationp - h surface roughness - h h cos² - H horizontal polarization - n _i complex index of refraction - p polarization (H orV) - R _s microwave surface reflectivity - T _B(p) brightness temperature at polarizationp - T ^* normalized brightness temperature - T polarization difference (T _v-T _H) - T _s temperature of soil surface - T _c temperature of canopy - T _max daily maximum air temperature - T _min daily minimum air temperature - V vertical polarization - soil moisture distribution factor; also used for the constant to partition the influence of bound and free water components to the dielectric constant of the mixture - empirical complex constant related to soil texture - microwave transmissivity of vegetation (=e ^–) - ^* effective transmissivity of vegetation (assuming =0) - microwave emissivity - _s emissivity of smooth soil surface - _rs emissivity of rough soil surface - _vs emissivity of vegetated surface - soil moisture content (% vol.) - K dielectric constant [F·m^–1] - K _fw dielectric constant of free water [F·m^–1] - K _ss dielectric constant of soil solids [F·m^–1] - K _m dielectric constant of mixture [F·m^–1] - K _o permittivity of free space [8.854·10^–12 F·m^–1] - high frequency limit ofK _wf [F·m^–1] - wavelength [m] - incidence angle [degrees from nadir] - polarization ratio (T _H/T _V) - b soil bulk density [gr·cm^–3] - s soil particle density [gr·cm^–3] - R surface reflectivity in red portion of spectrum - NIR surface reflectivity in near infrared portion of spectrum - _eff effective conductivity of soil extract [mS·cm^–1] - vegetation optical depth - _6.6 vegetation optical depth at 6.6 GHz - ₃₇ vegetation optical depth at 37 GHz - ^* effective vegetation optical depth (assuming =0) - single scattering albedo of vegetation With 12 Figures