Earthquake mechanisms of the Adriatic Sea and Western Greece: implications for the oceanic subduction-continental collision transition

We present 21 focal solutions (magnitude > 5.5) reliably computed by body-wave modelling for the western Hellenic arc from Yugoslavia to the southern Peloponnese. Mechanisms located within the Aegean show normal faulting, the T-axis trending N-S in the centre and parallel to the active boundary in the external part. Mechanisms associated with the Keffalinia fault are consistent with dextral strike-slip motion. Reverse mechanisms located along the active boundary are remarkably consistent and do not depend on the nature of the active boundary (continental collision or oceanic subduction). The consistency in azimuth of the slip vectors and of the GPS velocity relative to Africa, all along the active boundary, suggests that the deformation is related to the same motion. The discrepancy between seismic-energy release and the amount of shortening confirms that the continental collision is achieved by seismic slip on faults but the oceanic subduction is partially aseismic. The northward decrease in velocity between continental collision and oceanic subduction suggests the continental collision to be a recent evolution of the active subduction.     

Geological and morphological study of the Jiufengershan landslide triggered by the Chi-Chi Taiwan earthquake

The Jiufengershan rock and soil avalanche is one of the largest landslides triggered by the Chi-Chi earthquake Taiwan 1999. The landslide destabilized the western limb of the Taanshan syncline along a weak stratigraphic layer. It involved a flatiron remnant, which was almost entirely mobilized during the earthquake. The avalanche was slowed down by NS trending ridges located downstream along the Jiutsaihu creek. The landslide affected a 60 m thick and 1.5 km long sedimentary pile composed of shales and sandstones, which dip 22°SE toward a transverse valley. The triggering mechanism and the sliding process were analyzed by means of geological and morphological data from aerial photographs and observed in the field. A high-resolution airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) image taken 2.5 years after the landslide allows the identification of morphological structures along the sliding surface and the landslide accumulation. The sliding surface shows several deformation structures such as fault scarps and folds. These structures are interpreted in terms of basal shear stresses created during the avalanche. Three major joint sets were identified at the sliding surface. The isopach map of the landslide was calculated from the comparison between elevation models before and after the earthquake. The coseismic volume of mobilized material and landslide deposit data are 42 × 10⁶ m³ and 50 × 10⁶ m³, respectively. The geometry of the landslide accumulation in the field has an irregular star shape. The morphology of the deposit area shows a sequence of smooth reliefs and depressions that contrast with the neighboring ridges.     

An assessment of oil supply and its implications for future prices

This paper examines three issues related to both the U.S. and world oil supply: (1) the nature of the long-term, postpeak production profile for the U.S. and, by inference, other regions (the Hubbert curve is used as a “strawman” model); (2) implications on U.S. energy security of using a modified Hubbert-type conceptual model of prepeak production, testing the adequacy of Latin America to be the primary source of U.S. oil imports; and (3) the cyclic behavior of oil prices. it shows that U.S. production will exhibit a more attenuated decline than that simulated by the Hubbert curve and not decline to zero. it asserts that U.S. production is better predicted by past reserves than past production, but that this argument does not apply to nations that keep a much larger proportion of reserves in the ground. Such nations could considerably expand production without any growth in reserves. The paper concedes that the potential total production for these nations could be examined with a Hubbert curve model linked to reserves, but with great uncertainty. Such an uncertain optimistic forecast predicts that the cumulative production of Latin America could far exceed that of the United States. Nevertheless, a statistical model of oil prices since 1870 implies that real wellhead oil prices in the United States are on a long-term upward path, underlying a much more “noisy” cyclical pattern estimated to include 22- and 27-year cycles. The statistical model predicts a severe oil shock within a few years (of 1998) but also predicts that through 2030, real oil prices will not reach 1981 levels again. The paper examines U.S. and world trends in seismic exploration, drilling locations and depths, drilling costs, oil/gas reserves, oil/gas use rates, and oil demand. After taking these factors into consideration, it concludes that the statistical model of oil prices cannot be disputed, despite its lack of basis in economic theory.     

论俄罗斯北方航道治理路径及前景评估

随着气候变暖及融冰加剧,近年来北极问题的影响逐步扩散,北方航道的预期经济性也引发关于大规模开发利用的讨论。在内外需求交织的背景下,俄罗斯以"有限开放"原则为基础采取"选择性妥协"治理路径,在航行规则和基础设施建设等问题上主动妥协,努力将北方航道作为应对外部挑战和国内发展需求的新增长点。北方航道有限的数据背后反映出航运需求和经济性预期的片面性,且缺乏对自然条件、航运安全、污染防控等多重不确定因素评估,在短期内尚不具备大规模商业通航和投资的条件。以季节性运输及试航积累冰区航行经验,以港口基建为路径配置资金技术输出,以航运企业为主体主动配合俄罗斯战略调整需求,或是我国参与北方航道事务的优选方案。