中国大陆邻区的地震活动和中国大陆地震的关系

研究了３个方面的问题，一是中国大陆周边４个地震带地震活跃期与中国大陆地震活跃期的准同步性和它们目前的活动水平；二是欧亚地震带西部与中国大陆的地震活动呈出现明显的超前或滞后性；三是中国大陆邻区６个地震区的强震与中国大陆活跃期的开始或与中国大陆强震的对应关系。     

地震活动的高频低强度现象及其在7级强震趋势预测中的意义

分析了中国大陆地震活动的高频低强度现象与全球７级大震活动和中７级强震活动的关系。结果表明;全球７级强震活动弱时,中国大陆地区的地震活动就有可能出现这种现象。这种现象出现后的第１年中国台湾附近寺区发生７级大震的概率较大,第２年中国大陆地区发生７级大震的概率较大。     

对我国未来几年地震大形势的预测研究

根据地震期幕活动的特点,及对东北深震与华北、黄海和中国大陆地震活动关系的研究得出中国大陆地震活动第5轮回的强震活跃幕还未结束,还将延续3～5年的时间;今后几年大陆发生7级以上地震的危险性仍然存在,华北、黄海的6级地震活动也有可能增强。     

中国大陆地震活跃期和全球部分地震带强震活动的相关性研究

对全球部分地震带强震活动的研究表明，中国大陆地震活跃期与全球某些地震带强震活动呈一定程度的正相关或负相关，且有些地震带的强度震超前于中国大陆活动或平静，因此，可以利用相关地震带的强震活动和某些地震带的超前性，预测中国大陆的地震活动趋势及判定中国大陆的地震活跃期。     

中国大陆地震趋势分析

在近年全国地震大形势研究的基础上。根据中国大陆地震活动的时空强演化图像及其相关参数的统计结果,并结合大陆周围附近地区强震活动对其内部的影响等客观现象,对大陆地震活动趋势进行了研究预测。结果认为,中国大陆第五地震活跃期到2001年已经结束,2008年3月21日新疆于田7．3级地震可能是中国大陆新的地震活跃期开始。     

东南亚和中国大陆7级地震活动的关系

根据图形对比、频度比及相关分析法，对1900年以来东南亚和中国大陆地震活动的关系进行了研究，结果表明，东南亚地区和中国大陆7级地震活动是相关的。东南亚地区7级地震活动对中国大陆地震活动的影响可迟后1，2年；根据2000年全球7级大震在东南亚地区出现相对集中的情况，可以预测中国大陆在2001或2002年发生7级以上地震的可能性很大。     

孕震过程的数学物理模拟及其在地震预测研究中的应用

本文从大陆强震成组活动的事实出发 ,通过数值模拟和岩石破裂实验方法 ,对成组孕震过程中多震源体的地震活动所表现的基本特征及其相互作用和相互影响 (增减震机制 )进行了深入的研究 ,并利用数值模拟和实验分析结果对中国 2个典型地震活动地区 ,即华北地震区和川滇地震区的地震活动特征进行了解释 ,同时对地震前兆复杂性的产生原因和机制进行了初步探讨。地震活动具有空间不均匀性和时间非平稳性之特点。前者表现为地震在空间上往往成带、成区分布 ,后者则表现为地震活动在时间轴上具有活跃和平静 (高潮和低潮 )相交替的丛集特性。中国大陆…     

东北深震区的地震活动与中国大陆强震活动相关特征的初步研究

根据历史地震活动资料 ,分析研究了中国东北深震区的地震活动与中国大陆地区地震活动的相关特征 .结果表明 ,中国大陆地震活动高潮期的地震活动水平和6 .5级以上深震的发生有密切关系 .深震发生后 3年以内 ,中国大陆强震活动明显增强 .这些强震沿北纬 40°线和南北地震带呈优势分布 .     

印度板块北边界地震活动和中国大陆地震

本文研究了印度板块北边界地震活动与我国大陆地震活动的关系，给出了两者在时间起伏上的一致性，以及印度板块北边界兴都库会和缅甸两端点附近中深地震对中国大际强震活动所具有的前兆性和相关性。这些特点，对于中国大陆强震活动的预测，尤其是地震大形势预测是十分有意义的。文中还应用了中国大陆强震孕育发生的计算机模型的研究结果，讨论了强震活动的时空分布特征，对于理解中国大陆作为一个孕震系统在周围地质构造块体动力作用     

汶川8.0级地震前地震趋势分析意见的回顾

该文在系统整理自2001年昆仑山口西8.1级地震到汶川8.0级地震前年度地震趋势预测中提出的地震活动异常和分析意见的基础上, 研究汶川地震未能做出中长期预测的原因。 结果表明: 2001年昆仑山口西8.1级地震发生后, 判定中国大陆处于强震连发阶段, 仍有发生8级大震危险, 但此后的2002—2007年中国大陆周边接连发生大震, 而内部连续6年的7级地震平静, 以及中国大陆5、 6级地震相继出现的显著平静, 是导致2006年以后对中国大陆地震活动水平预测明显偏低的原因。 南北地震带中段一直是作为近几年可能发生强震的危险地区, 但2007年云南宁洱6.4级地震后, 对西南地区强震危险的紧迫性估计不足。 而汶川地震所在的龙门山地震带历史上没有7级以上地震记录, 也是该地震带未作为近几年地震重点危险区的原因之一。     

陆地地震勘探随机噪声统计特性

在地震勘探随机噪声压制领域,噪声通常被假设为平稳、高斯随机过程的信息.然而,在某些情况下,这样的假设并不准确.本文应用现代统计检验方法对地震勘探随机噪声的平稳性、高斯性和线性进行了研究.结果表明地震勘探随机噪声并不是传统意义上认为的平稳随机过程,其平稳性受到噪声时长和采集环境复杂程度的影响.发现噪声时间越长,采集环境越复杂,随机噪声的平稳性越差,但是对于短时长随机噪声而言,其可以近似认为是平稳的.同时,采集环境的复杂程度也影响着随机噪声的高斯性和线性特性,环境条件越复杂,随机噪声高斯性越好,线性特性越差,但总的来说随机噪声可以归为线性非高斯随机过程.     

Cellular automation model of faults and algorithmic complexity

Ｃｅｌｌｕｌａｒ　ａｕｔｏｍａｔｉｏｎ　ｍｏｄｅｌ　ｏｆ　ｆａｕｌｔｓ　ａｎｄ　ａｌｇｏｒｉｔｈｍｉｃ　ｃｏｍｐｌｅｘｉｔｙ（陆远忠）（吕悦军）Ｃｅｌｌｕｌａｒａｕｔｏｍａｔｉｏｎｍｏｄｅｌｏｆｆａｕｌｔｓａｎｄａｌｇｏｒｉｔｈｍｉｃｃｏｍｐｌｅｘｉ...     

Effects of habitat structural complexity on diversity patterns of neotropical fish assemblages in the Bita River Basin,Colombia

Several studies have shown that fish assemblages are structured by habitat features, most of them have proposed that there is a positive relationship between habitat structural complexity and species diversity. In this study, we aimed to test this positive-relationship idea in three habitats types (creeks, oxbow lakes and river sandbanks) distributed along the Bita River Basin in South America. Standardized surveys were conducted during January and February of 2016 (low water period) in 30 sites distributed along the entire basin. We recorded 23,092 individuals representing 191 species. To investigate possible relationships between habitat structural complexity and species diversity, we calculated the first three Hill’s numbers, and performed a Non-metric Multidimensional Scaling (NMDS), a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and a Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA). Our results showed that river sandbanks and creeks had the highest species richness. Results from the NMDS analysis (stress = 0.19) showed that fish community composition was different in the assessed habitats (ANOSIM < p = 0.001). According to the results of the principal component analysis, sand percentage, dissolved oxygen, and vegetation width separated river sandbanks from the other habitats. Results from the Hill’s numbers, forward selection procedure, and canonical correspondence analysis suggested that species composition and diversity were significantly influenced by the habitat structural complexity index and conductivity.     

Seismic hazard analysis for engineering sites based on the stochastic finite-fault method

Seismic hazard analyses are mainly performed using either deterministic or probabilistic methods. However, there are still some defects in these statistical model-based approaches for regional seismic risk assessment affected by the near-field of large earthquakes. Therefore, we established a deterministic seismic hazard analysis method that can characterize the entire process of ground motion propagation based on stochastic finite-fault simulation, and we chose the site of the Xiluodu dam to demonstrate the method. This method can characterize earthquake source properties more realistically than other methods and consider factors such as the path and site attenuation of seismic waves. It also has high computational efficiency and is convenient for engineering applications. We first analyzed the complexity of seismogenic structures in the Xiluodu dam site area, and then an evaluation system for ground motion parameters that considers various uncertainties is constructed based on a stochastic finite-fault simulation. Finally, we assessed the seismic hazard of the dam site area comprehensively. The proposed method was able to take into account the complexity of the seismogenic structures affecting the dam site and provide multi-level parameter evaluation results corresponding to different risk levels. These results can be used to construct a dam safety assessment system of an earthquake in advance that provides technical support for rapidly and accurately assessing the post-earthquake damage state of a dam, thus determining the influence of an earthquake on dam safety and mitigating the risk of potential secondary disasters.     

Quantifying bed-related suspended load in gravel bed rivers through an analysis of the bedload-suspended load relationship

Suspended load transport can strongly impact ecosystems, dam filling and water resources. However, contrary to bedload, the use of physically based predicting equations is very challenging because of the complexity of interactions between suspended load and the river system. Through the analysis of extensive data sets, we investigated extent to which one or several river bed or flow parameters could be used as a proxy for quantifying suspended fluxes in gravel bed rivers. For this purpose, we gathered in the literature nearly 2400 instantaneous field measurements collected in 56 gravel bed rivers. Among all standard dimensionless parameters tested, the strongest correlation was observed between the suspended sediment concentration and the dimensionless bedload rate. An empirical relation between these two parameters was calibrated. Used with a reach average bedload transport formula, the approach allowed to successfully reproduce suspended fluxes measured during major flood events in seven gravel bed alpine rivers, morphodynamically active and distant from hillslope sources. These results are discussed in light of the complexity of the processes potentially influencing suspended load in a mountainous context. The approach proposed in this paper will never replace direct field measurements, which can be considered the only confident method to assess sediment fluxes in alpine streams; however, it can increment existing panel tools that help river managers to estimate even rough but not unrealistic suspended fluxes when measurements are totally absent. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Scale Effects in Simple Models for the Dynamics of Faults

Although the evidence for complexity is overwhelming, the dynamics of faulting is still poorly understood. Whilst it has long been known that discreteness in numerical earthquake models produces complexity, the mathematical structure and form of this complexity has never been fully established. Using a simple 1D nonlinear fault model we show how complexity can arise in discrete models through the presence of nonlinear, scale-dependent (or mesh-dependent) terms. We show that scale-dependencies may be a significant factor in the generation of slip complexity and pulse-like rupture over multiple earthquake cycles. We demonstrate that the introduction of length scales in discrete earthquake models implies that both strongly weakening friction and scale-dependent processes may be necessary in generating the pulse-like rupture mode and earthquake complexity over multiple earthquake cycles.     

THE WEST COAST OF BRITAIN: STATISTICAL SELF-SIMILARITY VS. CHARACTERISTIC SCALES IN THE LANDSCAPE

Mandelbrot (Science, 1967, 156, 636–638) used the west coast of Britain as an example of a naturally occurring statistically self-similar fractal. Evidence from this study indicates that the west coast of Britain is not statistically self-similar over the range of scale of measurement, and that complexity reaches maxima at characteristic scales related to identifiable features on the coastline. A fractal analysis is conducted using the divider method, and although the resulting log–log plot of measured length against steplength appears linear, statistical tests for linearity strongly suggest that the coastline is not statistically self-similar. An angle measure technique (AMT) developed by the author to examine changes in line complexity with scale, shows that within the range of scale of measurement there are two peaks in complexity for the west coast of Britain, suggesting that two processes acting at different scales have influenced coastal development. The AMT is also used to identify differences in complexity between northern and southern sections of the coastline. Additionally, high r² values associated with regressions of log L(G) against log G are shown to be insufficient evidence of statistical self-similarity, and apparently linear segments (fractal elements) often found in Richardson plots may contain systematic curvature revealed only by more rigorous tests for non-linearity.     

Investigating the effect of complexity on groundwater flow modeling uncertainty

Considering complexity in groundwater modeling can aid in selecting an optimal model, and can avoid over parameterization, model uncertainty, and misleading conclusions. This study was designed to determine the uncertainty arising from model complexity, and to identify how complexity affects model uncertainty. The Ajabshir aquifer, located in East Azerbaijan, Iran, was used for comprehensive hydrogeological studies and modeling. Six unique conceptual models with four different degrees of complexity measured by the number of calibrated model parameters (6, 10, 10, 13, 13 and 15 parameters) were compared and characterized with alternative geological interpretations, recharge estimates and boundary conditions. The models were developed with Model Muse and calibrated using UCODE with the same set of observed data of hydraulic head. Different methods were used to calculate model probability and model weight to explore model complexity, including Bayesian model averaging, model selection criteria, and multicriteria decision-making (MCDM). With the model selection criteria of AIC, AICc and BIC, the simplest model received the highest model probability. The model selection criterion, KIC, and the MCDM method, in addition to considering the quality of model fit between observed and simulated data and the number of calibrated parameters, also consider uncertainty in parameter estimates with a Fisher information matrix. KIC and MCDM selected a model with moderate complexity (10 parameters) and the best parameter estimation (model 3) as the best models, over another model with the same degree of complexity (model 2). The results of these comparisons show that in choosing between models, priority should be given to quality of the data and parameter estimation rather than degree of complexity.     

库车坳陷高陡构造地震勘探复杂性定量分析

波与非均匀介质的相互作用是多年来地球物理研究的理论问题之一.本文基于地震成像算子,定量分析了库车坳陷盐相关逆冲推覆构造的复杂性.首先,根据地震资料计算了大北构造、博孜构造、却勒构造、西秋10构造和西秋4构造的速度横向变化非均质谱和地层倾角变化非均质谱,这些量化表征高陡构造地质复杂性的地质非均质谱定最描述了速度横向变化和...     

利用GDSN宽频带资料研究青海地区1988—1990年强震的震源过程

１９８８至１９９０年，青海地区发生了４次震级大于６．０的强震。利用ＧＤＳＮ宽频带波形资料，通过波形模拟，结合地质构造的背景资料对这几次地震进行了震源破裂和发震构造背景的研究。使用台站的准震源时间函数和准时间差的分析方法，对震源和复杂性进行了讨论。