A method to estimate climate-critical construction materials applied to seaport protection

Climate adaptation for coastal infrastructure projects raises unique challenges because global-scale environmental changes may require similar projects to be completed in many locations over the same time frame. Existing methods to forecast resource demand and capacity do not consider this phenomenon of a global change affecting many localities and the resulting increased demand for resources. Current methods do not relate to the most up-to-date climate science information, and they are too costly or too imprecise to generate global, regional, and local forecasts of “climate-critical resources” that will be required for infrastructure protection. They either require too much effort to create the many localized designs or are too coarse to consider information sources about local conditions and structure-specific engineering knowledge. We formalized the concept of a “minimum assumption credible design” (MACD) to leverage available local information (topography/bathymetry and existing infrastructure) and the essential engineering knowledge and required construction materials (i.e., a design cross-section template). The aggregation of the resources required for individual local structures then forecasts the resource demand for global adaptation projects. We illustrate the application of the MACD method to estimate the demand for construction materials critical to protect seaports from sea-level-rise-enhanced storm surges. We examined 221 of the world’s 3,300+ seaports to calculate the resource requirements for a coastal storm surge protection structure suited to current upper-bound projections of two meters of sea level rise by 2100. We found that a project of this scale would require approximately 436 million cubic meters of construction materials, including cement, sand, aggregate, steel rebar, and riprap. For cement alone, ∼49 million metric tons would be required. The deployment of the MACD method would make resource forecasts for adaptation projects more transparent and widely accessible and would highlight areas where current engineering knowledge or material, engineering workforce, and equipment capacity fall short of meeting the demands of adaptation projects.     

Numerical experiments on ice age climates

Numerical experiments with a hemispheric thermodynamic model are carried out, using present and ice age conditions. The computed surface temperatures for 18,000 years ago are in good agreement with the CLIMAP values. It is shown that the snow-ice cap that existed in the summer 18,000 years ago created a feedback mechanism which was responsible for perpetuating these ice age conditions. The increase of insolation due to orbital variations was responsible, at least in part, for the shrinkage of the snow-ice cap from 18,000 to 8,000 years ago. It is shown that the effect on the earth-atmosphere system of the changes in insolation due to the orbital variations depends on the preexisting snow-ice cap. It is significant for the ice cap that existed 18,000 years ago and insignificant for present conditions. The numerical experiments suggest that the evolution of climate depends in an important way on the initial snow-ice conditions. Therefore, according to the model the problem of simulating the evolution of climate is not determined if one does not prescribe these snow-ice conditions. Lamont Doherty Geological Observatory contribution No. 3115. Visiting Senior Research Associate at Lamont Doherty Geological Observatory, Columbia University.     

Expansion of the planar-fit method to estimate flux over complex terrain

An expanded planar-fit (PF) method over complex terrain is presented and applied to coordinate rotation of the eddy-covariance (EC) flux and vertical velocity estimation. Theoretical analysis indicates that PF coefficients depend on wind direction, and an expression of vertical velocity is deduced. We applied the theory using 1?year of observations from the KoFlux site in the Gwangneung Forest in Korea and investigated the influence of wind direction on the PF method. Then, we performed an expansion of the PF method to consider dependence of PF coefficients on wind direction and applied the PF method to every sector. The results show that the PF coefficients and tilt angles over complex terrain vary with wind direction. Two hundred 30-min data sets are sufficient to derive stable PF coefficients over hilly terrain for each sector. The relative difference in eddy-covariance flux between the general planar fit (GPF) and sector planar fit (SPF) is less than 10% for the scalar flux and about 18% for friction velocity. Vertical velocity and vertical advection (VA) terms were also calculated and compared using SPF and GPF methods, and a normal distribution and diurnal trend of real vertical velocity on clear days are presented.     

Seasonally asymmetric transition of the Asian monsoon in response to ice age boundary conditions

Modulation of a monsoon under glacial forcing is examined using an atmosphere?Cocean coupled general circulation model (AOGCM) following the specifications established by Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase 2 (PMIP2) to understand the air?Csea?Cland interaction under different climate forcing. Several sensitivity experiments are performed in response to individual changes in the continental ice sheet, orbital parameters, and sea surface temperature (SST) in the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM: 21?ka) to evaluate the driving mechanisms for the anomalous seasonal evolution of the monsoon. Comparison of the model results in the LGM with the pre-industrial (PI) simulation shows that the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal are characterized by enhancement of pre-monsoon convection despite a drop in the SST encompassing the globe, while the rainfall is considerably suppressed in the subsequent monsoon period. In the LGM winter relative to the PI, anomalies in the meridional temperature gradient (MTG) between the Asian continents minus the tropical oceans become positive and are consistent with the intensified pre-monsoon circulation. The enhanced MTG anomalies can be explained by a decrease in the condensation heating relevant to the suppressed tropical convection as well as positive insolation anomalies in the higher latitude, showing an opposing view to a warmer future climate. It is also evident that a latitudinal gradient in the SST across the equator plays an important role in the enhancement of pre-monsoon rainfall. As for the summer, the sensitivity experiments imply that two ice sheets over the northern hemisphere cools the air temperature over the Asian continent, which is consistent with the reduction of MTG involved in the attenuated monsoon. The surplus pre-monsoon convection causes a decrease in the SST through increased heat loss from the ocean surface; in other words, negative ocean feedback is also responsible for the subsequent weakening of summer convection.     

一种新的时间序列预报方法

本文将车贝雪夫多项式应用于时间序列的研究,提出了一种新的时间序列预报方法.这种方法精度较高,简便易行,可以用计算机算,也可以手工计算.文中给出了预报公式,估计了预报误差,并给出了预报实例.     

A new type of time-series-forecasting method

By use of Chebyshev polynomial, a new method is proposed for predicting time series. It is found to be of greater accuracy, easy and convenient for use with operation run either by computer or by hand. Predicting formulae are shown with estimates of the error. In addition, calculated cases are given to show the fidelity with this method.     

Coupled climate modelling of ocean circulation changes during ice age inception

Freshening of high latitude surface waters can change the large-scale oceanic transport of heat and salt. Consequently, atmospheric and sea ice perturbations over the deep water production sites excite a large-scale response establishing an oceanic "teleconnection" with time scales of years to centuries. To study these feedbacks, a coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice model consisting of a two dimensional atmospheric energy and moisture balance model (EMBM) coupled to a thermodynamic sea ice model and an ocean general circulation model is utilised. The coupled model reproduces many aspects of the present oceanic circulation. We also investigate the climate impact of changes in fresh water balance during an ice age initiation. In this experiment part of the precipitation over continents is stored within continental ice sheets. During the buildup of ice sheets the oceanic stratification in the North Atlantic is weakened by a reduced continental run-off leading to an enhanced thermohaline circulation. Under these conditions salinity is redistributed such that deep water is more saline than under present conditions. Once the ice sheets built up, we simulate an ice age climate without net fresh water storage on the continents. In this case the coupled model reproduces the shallow and weak overturning cell, an ice edge advance insulating the upper ocean, and many other aspects of the glacial circulation.     

A mathematical method for estimation of soil temperatures in England and Scotland

A mathematical expression (fourth-degree polynomial) is derived to calculate the maximum and minimum soil temperatures at a 10-cm depth for any day of the year at 18 locations in England and Scotland. Coefficients for the equations are tabulated.     

Simple new methods to estimate global solar radiation based on meteorological data in Egypt

Three simple methods to estimate global solar radiation are proposed in addition to (Solar Energy 63 (1998) 147). All were tested seasonally and at different sky conditions at seven locations in Egypt. The methods use ground-based measurements of maximum and minimum temperature, daily mean of cloud cover and extraterrestrial global radiation. Average of root mean square differences (RMSD) for a comparison between observed and estimated global radiation for all locations tested was around 10% for the new methods and 13% for Supit–Van Kappel method. The coefficient of determination R² is higher for the new methods for all tested locations. Better results were obtained when applying the new methods to different seasons. The differences in root mean square error (RMSE) between the new methods and Ångstrom–Prescott method that is based on sunshine duration data were less than 1.0 MJ m⁻² day⁻¹ at all sites. On the whole, the performance statistics demonstrate that the new methods are better when compared by Ångstrom–Prescott method.     

The initiation of ice sheet growth,Milankovitch solar radiation variations,and the 100 ky ice age cycle

Much work has gone into deciphering the causes of the large scale glacial/interglacial variations in the climate system over the last 900 000 years. While variations on the 41 thousand year (ky) and 23 ky time scales seem to be linearly linked to the variations in the distribution of solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere, Milankovitch solar radiation variations, the causes of the dominant 100 ky cycle in the geologic record are still unknown. One of the aspects of this cycle that is not well understood is how large scale ice sheet growth is initiated. Here we describe the mechanisms by which large scale ice sheet growth may have been initiated by the changes in the seasonal and latitudinal distribution of solar radiation over the past 160 ky. This is done through the use of a coupled energy balance climate-thermodynamic sea ice model that includes a hydrologic cycle which computes precipitation, and a land surface energy balance which determines the net accumulation of snow and ice. Results indicate that the initiation of ice sheet growth is possible during times of extremely low summer solstice solar radiation as a result of a large decrease in ablation during the critical melt season.     

A new algorithm to estimate sky condition based on 5 minutes-averaged values of clearness index and relative optical air mass

Summary This work describes a new algorithm to characterize sky condition in intervals of 5 min using four categories of sun exposition: apparent sun with cloud reflection effects; apparent sun without cloud effects; sun partially concealed by clouds; and sun totally concealed by clouds. The algorithm can also be applied to estimate hourly and daily sky condition in terms of the traditional three categories: clear, partially cloudy and cloudy day. It identifies sky conditions within a confidence interval of 95% by minimizing local climate and measurement effects. This is accomplished by using a logistic cumulative probability function to characterize clear sky and Weibull cumulative probability function to represent cloudy sky. Both probability functions are derived from frequency distributions of clearness index, based on 5 minutes-averaged values of global solar irradiance observed at the surface during a period of 6 years in Botucatu, Southeastern of Brazil. The relative sunshine estimated from the new algorithm is statistically comparable to the one derived from Campbell-Stocks sunshine recorder for both daily and monthly values. The new method indicates that the highest frequency of clear sky days occurs in Botucatu during winter (66%) and the lowest during the summer (38%). Partially cloudy condition is the dominant feature during all months of the year.     

The Pangean ice age: studies with a coupled climate-ice sheet model

 Application of an ice sheet model developed for the Pleistocene to the extensive Carboniferous glaciation on Gondwana yields an ice sheet which has several features consistent with observations. While complete deglaciation is not achieved without CO₂ changes, the Milankovich-induced fluctuations in ice sheet volume are comparable to Pleistocene glacial/ interglacial signals. This result is shown to hold for a large fraction of physically reasonable parameter space. The model also exhibits multiple equilibria and sharp bifurcations, as infinitesimal changes in the solar constant or precipitation can lead to a qualitatively different climate. The success of the model in predicting ice location in an environment quite different from the Pleistocene provides additional support for the robustness of the basic model physics and suggests that the model can be applied with some confidence to other pre-Pleistocene glaciations. Received: 30 June 1998 / Accepted: 5 January 1999     

A method for the reconstruction of mountain air temperatures with automatic cartographic applications

Summary Mountain areas are characterized by a great variety of relief and topoclimates. As a result, the network of stations measuring temperatures is generally not dense enough to enable interpolations based on the temperature records of nearby stations. This obstacle may be overcome by reconstructing minimum and maximum monthly temperatures by multiple regression analysis using quantified topographic parameters that characterize the environment of each station. The paper presents regression models that have yielded very satisfactory results for mountain relief in the Alpes-Maritimes Department in southeastern France. A thirty-year record of 28 stations was used to generate these models which have also been used to automatically map instantaneous temperatures measured by a network of 21 automatic sensors.With 15 Figures     

Radiative forcing and response of a GCM to ice age boundary conditions: cloud feedback and climate sensitivity

 A general circulation model is used to examine the effects of reduced atmospheric CO₂, insolation changes and an updated reconstruction of the continental ice sheets at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). A set of experiments is performed to estimate the radiative forcing from each of the boundary conditions. These calculations are used to estimate a total radiative forcing for the climate of the LGM. The response of the general circulation model to the forcing from each of the changed boundary conditions is then investigated. About two-thirds of the simulated glacial cooling is due to the presence of the continental ice sheets. The effect of the cloud feedback is substantially modified where there are large changes to surface albedo. Finally, the climate sensitivity is estimated based on the global mean LGM radiative forcing and temperature response, and is compared to the climate sensitivity calculated from equilibrium experiments with atmospheric CO₂ doubled from present day concentration. The calculations here using the model and palaeodata support a climate sensitivity of about 1 Wm^-2 K^-1 which is within the conventional range. Received: 8 February 1997 / Accepted: 4 June 1997     

A discussion of statistical methods used to estimate extreme wind speeds

Summary Wind speeds in extra-tropical latitudes are known to be approximately Weibull distributed. Hence a Weibull distribution fitted to all available data is often used to predict extreme winds. The most extreme values then, however, have little influence on the estimated parent Weibull distribution, and the accuracy of the extreme value predictions obtained in this manner may be questioned. In the present paper such a “Weibull method” is compared to a method based on statistical extreme value theory, “the annual maxima method”. The comparison is based on 30 years of 10 minute wind speed averages measured hourly at 12 meteorological stations located at airports in Sweden. Results show that the Weibull method generates incorrect estimates of the tails of the distributions of wind speeds and of the distribution of yearly maximum wind speed, and that serial dependence of individual measurements has to be taken into account. In addition, it is inherent in the Weibull method that it does not provide any confidence bounds for the estimates. The annual maxima method avoids these problems. The measurements were rounded, first to entire knots, and then to m/s. A further, “technical”, result is that if this rounding were disregarded in the estimation procedure, then the computed standard errors of the parameter estimates would be erroneously low. Hence, if rounding is done, it should be taken into account in the estimation procedure. We also believe this to be a clear indication that rounding of the data decreases estimation accuracy.     

A new method for multi-point pollution source identification

对于污染源源项特征(数量,位置及排放强度)的快速且精确估计是污染事件应急响应的关键.与单点源估计相比,多点源的重建更具挑战性.本文提出了一种新的针对于多点源污染事件的两步反演算法,该算法通过结合大气化学模式与有限的浓度观测数据以实现对于未知数量的多点源的准确估计.在其计算过程中,无需任何未知量的先验信息,且可以自动识别污染源的数量,并确定每一个污染源的位置及强度.本文通过使用若干组理想试验验证了算法的适用性,试验结果表明,该算法可准确估计单点源,两点源和三点源的个数及位置,强度的估计误差可基本忽略.且该算法的估计精度和计算效率不会随着点源个数的增加而减弱.     

A new analytic method for finding policy-relevant scenarios

Scenarios play a prominent role in policy debates over climate change, but questions continue about how best to use them. We describe a new analytic method, based on robust decision making, for suggesting narrative scenarios that emerge naturally from a decision analytic framework. We identify key scenarios as those most important to the choices facing decision makers and find such cases with statistical analysis of datasets created by multiple runs of computer simulation models. The resulting scenarios can communicate quantitative judgments about uncertainty as well as support a well-defined decision process without many drawbacks of current approaches. We describe an application to long-term water planning in California.