Water interaction with MgCl<Subscript>2</Subscript>×6H<Subscript>2</Subscript>O and NaCl surfaces: measurements of the uptake coefficient

The uptake of water vapor on MgCl₂×6H₂O and NaCl salt dry solid films was studied over the temperature range 240 to 340 K and at 1 Torr pressure of helium using a flow reactor coupled to a modulated molecular beam mass spectrometer. The H₂O to salt uptake data were obtained from the kinetics of H₂O loss on salt coated Pyrex rods. The following Arrhenius expression was obtained for the initial uptake coefficient of H₂O on MgCl₂×6H₂O films: γ ₀ (MgCl₂) = (6.5 ± 1.0) × 10⁻⁶ exp[(470 ± 40)/T] (calculated with specific BET surface area, quoted uncertainties are 1σ statistical). The rate of H₂O adsorption on NaCl was found to be much lower than on MgCl₂×6H₂O, and only an upper limit was determined for the corresponding uptake coefficient: γ (NaCl) ≤ 5.6 × 10⁻⁶ at T = 300 K. The results show that the rate of H₂O adsorption to salt surfaces is drastically dependent on the salt sample composition.     

Atmosphere–Surface Fluxes of CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> using Spectral Techniques

Different flux estimation techniques are compared here in order to evaluate air–sea exchange measurement methods used on moving platforms. Techniques using power spectra and cospectra to estimate fluxes are presented and applied to measurements of wind speed and sensible heat, latent heat and CO₂ fluxes. Momentum and scalar fluxes are calculated from the dissipation technique utilizing the inertial subrange of the power spectra and from estimation of the cospectral amplitude, and both flux estimates are compared to covariance derived fluxes. It is shown how even data having a poor signal-to-noise ratio can be used for flux estimations.     

Methods for Estimating Air–Sea Fluxes of CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> Using High-Frequency Measurements

The most direct method for flux estimation uses eddy covariance, which is also the most commonly used method for land-based measurements of surface fluxes. Moving platforms are frequently used to make measurements over the sea, in which case motion can disturb the measurements. An alternative method for flux estimation should be considered if the effects of platform motion cannot be properly corrected for. Three methods for estimating CO₂ fluxes are studied here: the eddy-covariance, the inertial-dissipation, and the cospectral-peak methods. High-frequency measurements made at the land-based Östergarnsholm marine station in the Baltic Sea and measurements made from a ship during the Galathea 3 expedition are used. The Kolmogorov constant for CO₂, used in the inertial-dissipation method, is estimated to be 0.68 and is determined using direct flux measurements made at the Östergarnsholm site. The cospectral-peak method, originally developed for neutral stratification, is modified to be applicable in all stratifications. With these modifications, the CO₂ fluxes estimated using the three methods agree well. Using data from the Östergarnsholm site, the mean absolute error between the eddy-covariance and inertial-dissipation methods is 0.25 μmol  m^?2 s^?1. The corresponding mean absolute error between the eddy-covariance and cospectral-peak methods is 0.26 μmol m^?2 s^?1, while between the inertial-dissipation and cospectral-peak methods it is 0.14 μmol m^?2 s^?1.     

Influence of the atmospheric conditions on PM<Subscript>10</Subscript> concentrations in Poznań, Poland

This study investigates atmospheric conditions’ influence on the mean and extreme characteristics of PM₁₀ concentrations in Poznań during the period 2006–2013. A correlation analysis was carried out to identify the most important meteorological variables influencing the seasonal dynamics of PM₁₀ concentrations. The highest absolute correlation values were obtained for planetary boundary layer height (r = ?0.57), thermal (daily minimum air temperature: r = ?0.51), anemological (average daily wind speed: r = ?0.37), and pluvial (precipitation occurrence: r = ?0.36) conditions, however the highest correlations were observed for temporal autocorrelations (1 day lag: r = 0.70). As regulated by law, extreme events were identified on the basis of daily threshold value i.e. 50 μg m^?3. On average, annually there are approximately 71.3 days anywhere in the city when the threshold value is exceeded, 46.6 % of those occur in winter. Additionally, 83.7 % of these cases have been found to be continuous episodes of a few days, with the longest one persisting for 22 days. The analysis of the macro-scale circulation patterns led to the identification of an easy-to-perceive seasonal relations between atmospheric fields that favour the occurrence of high PM₁₀ concentration, as well as synoptic situations contributing to the rapid air quality improvement. The highest PM₁₀ concentrations are a clear reaction to a decrease in air temperature by over 3 °C, with simultaneous lowering of PBL height, mean wind speed (by around 1 m s^?1) and changing dominant wind directions from western to eastern sectors. In most cases, such a situation is related to the expansion of a high pressure system over eastern Europe and weakening of the Icelandic Low. Usually, air quality conditions improve along with an intensification of westerlies associated with the occurrence of low pressure systems over western and central Europe. Opposite relations are distinguishable in summer, when air quality deterioration is related to the inflow of tropical air masses originating over the Sahara desert.     

Interannual Variability of Atmospheric CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> Concentrations over Central Siberia from ZOTTO Data for 2009–2015

The interannual variations in the characteristics of the seasonal cycle (annual and seasonal amplitudes, winter emission, dates of annual minimum and maximum, and phase) and in the growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration over Central Siberia are analyzed for the period from May 2009 to January 2016. The results are based on the continuous monitoring of CO₂ concentration at the Zotino Tall Tower Observatory (ZOTTO, www.zottoproject.org). It is found that the seasonal amplitude of CO₂ concentration in the atmo spheric surface layer over Western Siberia is 26.4 ± 0.8 μmol/mol (no long-term trend toward its increase was revealed), the annual mean growth rate of CO₂ is 2.34 μmol/mol per year, its variations range from 1 to 4 μmol/mol per year.     

Do recipient country characteristics affect international spillovers of CO<Subscript>2</Subscript>-efficiency via trade and foreign direct investment?

Although there is evidence that CO₂-efficiency enhancing innovations in one country diffuse into other countries to contribute to the goals of climate change mitigation, very little is known about the conditions under which such international spillovers are most likely to take place. Our contribution in the present article seeks to address this gap by examining whether the strength of cross-border CO₂-efficiency spatial dependence working through import ties and inward foreign direct investment (FDI) stocks is greater in (a) countries with lower existing levels of domestic CO₂-efficiency and (b) countries with greater social capabilities in terms of a better educated workforce and higher institutional quality. We find that less CO₂-efficient countries and countries with higher institutional quality experience stronger FDI-weighted CO₂-efficiency spillovers, whereas a higher level of human capital increases receptivity to import-weighted international spillovers.     

Long run surface temperature dynamics of an A-OGCM: the HadCM3 4×CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> forcing experiment revisited

The global mean surface temperature (GMST) response of HadCM3 to a 1,000 year 4×CO₂ forcing is analysed using a transfer function methodology. We identify a third order transfer function as being an appropriate characterisation of the dynamic relationship between the radiative forcing input and GMST output of this Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (A-OGCM). From this transfer function the equilibrium climate sensitivity is estimated as 4.62 (3.92–11.88) K which is significantly higher than previously estimated for HadCM3. The response is also characterised by time constants of 4.5 (3.2–6.4), 140 (78–191) and 1,476 (564–11,737) years. The fact that the longest time constant element is significantly longer than the 1,000 year simulation run makes estimation of this element of the response problematic, highlighting the need for significantly longer model runs to express A-OGCM behaviour fully. The transfer function is interpreted in relation to a three box global energy balance model. It was found that this interpretation gave rise to three fractions of ocean heat capacity with effective depths of 63.0 (46.7–85.4), 1291.7 (787.3–2,955.3) and 2,358.0 (661.3–17,283.8) meters of seawater, associated with three discrete time constants of 4.6 (3.2–6.5), 107.7 (68.9–144.3) and 537.1 (196.2–1,243.1) years. Given this accounts for approximately 94% of the ocean heat capacity in HadCM3, it appears HadCM3 could be significantly more well mixed than previously thought when viewed on the millennial timescale.     

Would constraining US fossil fuel production affect global CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> emissions? A case study of US leasing policy

Avoiding dangerous climate change will require a rapid transition away from fossil fuels. By some estimates, global consumption and production of fossil fuels—particularly coal and oil—will need to end almost entirely within 50 years. Given the scale of such a transition, nations may need to consider policies that constrain growth in fossil fuel supplies in addition to those that reduce demand. Here, we examine the emissions implications of a supply-constraining measure that was rapidly gaining momentum in the United States (US) under the Obama administration: ceasing the issuance of new leases for fossil fuel extraction on federal lands and waters. Such a measure could reduce global carbon dioxide emissions by an estimated 280 million tons annually by 2030, comparable to that of other major climate policies adopted or considered by the Obama administration. Our findings suggest that measures to constrain fossil fuel supply—though not currently viable in a US Trump administration—deserve further consideration at subnational levels in the US or by other countries now, and by future US administrations.     

Seasonal and annual trends of carbonaceous species of PM<Subscript>10</Subscript> over a megacity Delhi,India during 2010–2017

PM₁₀ samples were collected to characterize the seasonal and annual trends of carbonaceous content in PM₁₀ at an urban site of megacity Delhi, India from January 2010 to December 2017. Organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC) concentrations were quantified by thermal-optical transmission (TOT) method of PM₁₀ samples collected at Delhi. The average concentrations of PM₁₀, OC, EC and TCA (total carbonaceous aerosol) were 222?±?87 (range: 48.2–583.8 μg m^?3), 25.6?±?14.0 (range: 4.2–82.5 μg m^?3), 8.7?±?5.8 (range: 0.8–35.6 μg m^?3) and 54.7?±?30.6 μg m^?3 (range: 8.4–175.2 μg m^?3), respectively during entire sampling period. The average secondary organic carbon (SOC) concentration ranged from 2.5–9.1 μg m^?3 in PM₁₀, accounting from 14 to 28% of total OC mass concentration of PM₁₀. Significant seasonal variations were recorded in concentrations of PM₁₀, OC, EC and TCA with maxima during winter and minima during monsoon seasons. In the present study, the positive linear trend between OC and EC were recorded during winter (R²?=?0.53), summer (R²?=?0.59) and monsoon (R²?=?0.78) seasons. This behaviour suggests the contribution of similar sources and common atmospheric processes in both the fractions. OC/EC weight ratio suggested that vehicular emissions, fossil fuel combustion and biomass burning could be the major sources of carbonaceous aerosols of PM₁₀ at the megacity Delhi, India. Trajectory analysis indicates that the air mass approches to the sampling site is mainly from Indo Gangetic plain (IGP) region (Uttar Pradesh, Haryana and Punjab etc.), Thar desert, Afghanistan, Pakistan and surrounding areas.     

Diurnal variation of atmospheric CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> concentration and δ<Superscript>13</Superscript>C in an urban atmosphere during winter—role of the Nocturnal Boundary Layer

The paper presents the importance of the Nocturnal Boundary Layer in driving the diurnal variability of the atmospheric CO₂ mixing ratio and the carbon isotope ratio at ground level from an urban station in India. Our observations are the first of their kind from this region. The atmospheric CO₂ mixing ratio and the carbon isotopic ratio were measured for both the morning (05:30–07:30 IST) and afternoon time (16:00–18:00 IST) air samples at 5 m above ground level in Bangalore city, Karnataka State (12° 58′ N, 77° 38′ E, masl = 920 m) for a 10 day period during the winter of 2008. We observed a change of ~7% the in CO₂ mixing ratio between the morning and afternoon time air samples. A stable isotope analysis of CO₂ from morning samples showed a depletion in the carbon isotope ratio by ~2‰ compared to the afternoon samples. Along with the ground-based measurement of air samples, data of radiosonde measurements were also obtained from the Indian Meteorological Department to identify the vertical atmospheric structure at different time in a day. We proposed the presence or absence of the NBL as a controlling factor for the observed variability in the mixing ratio as well as its isotopic composition. Here we used the Keeling model approach to find out the carbon isotope ratio for the local sources. The local sources have further been characterized as anthropogenic and biological respiration (in %) using a two-component mixing model. We also used a vertical mixing model based on the concept of the mixing of isotopically depleted (carbon isotope) “polluted air” (PA) with isotopically enriched “free atmospheric air” (FA) above. Using this modeling approach, the contribution of FA at ground level is being estimated for both the morning and afternoon time air samples.     

Measurements of PM<Subscript>10</Subscript> ions and trace gases with the online system MARGA at the research station Melpitz in Germany – A five-year study

An hourly quantification of inorganic water-soluble PM₁₀ ions and corresponding trace gases was performed using the Monitor for AeRosols and Gases in ambient Air (MARGA) at the TROPOS research site in Melpitz, Germany. The data availability amounts to over 80% for the five-year measurement period from 2010 to 2014. Comparisons were performed for the evaluation of the MARGA, resulting in coefficients of determinations (slopes) of 0.91 (0.90) for the measurements against the SO₂ gas monitor, 0.84 (0.88), 0.79 (1.39), 0.85 (1.20) for the ACSM NO₃ ^?, SO₄ ^2? and NH₄ ⁺ measurements, respectively, and 0.85 (0.65), 0.88 (0.68), 0.91 (0.83), 0.86 (0.82) for the filter measurements of Cl^?, NO₃ ^?, SO₄ ^2? and NH₄ ⁺, respectively. A HONO comparison with a batch denuder shows large scatter (R² = 0.41). The MARGA HNO₃ is underestimated compared to a batch and coated denuder with shorter inlets (slopes of 0.16 and 0.08, respectively). Less NH₃ was observed in coated denuders for high ambient concentrations. Long-time measurements show clear daily and seasonal variabilities. Potential Source Contribution Function (PSCF) analysis indicates the emission area of particulate ions Cl^?, NO₃ ^?, SO₄ ^2?, NH₄ ⁺, K⁺ and gaseous SO₂ to lie in eastern European countries, predominantly in wintertime. Coarse mode sea salt particles are transported from the North Sea to Melpitz. The particles at Melpitz are nearly neutralised with a mean molar ratio of 0.90 for the five-year study. A slight increase of the neutralization ratio over the last three years indicates a stronger decrease of the anthropogenically emitted NO₃ ^? and SO₄ ^2? compared to NH₄ ⁺.     

A Case Study of CO<Subscript>2</Subscript>, CO and Particles Content Evolution in the Suburban Atmospheric Boundary Layer Using a 2-μm Doppler DIAL,a 1-μm Backscatter Lidar and an Array of In-situ Sensors

A network of remote and in-situ sensors was deployed in a Paris suburb in order to evaluate the mesoscale evolution of the daily cycle of CO₂ and related tracers in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) and its relation to ABL dynamics and nearby natural and anthropogenic sources and sinks. A 2-μm heterodyne Doppler differential absorption lidar, which combines measurements of, (1) structure of the atmosphere, (2) radial velocity, and (3) CO₂ differential absorption was a particularly unique element of the observational array. We analyse the differences in the diurnal cycle of CO, CO₂, lidar reflectivity (a proxy for aerosol content) and H₂O using the lidar, airborne measurements in the free troposphere and ground-based measurements made at two sites located few kilometres apart. We demonstrate that vertical mixing dominates the early morning drawdown of CO and aerosol content trapped in the former nocturnal layer but not the H₂O and CO₂ mixing ratio variations. Surface fluxes, vertical mixing and advection all contribute to the ABL CO₂ mixing ratio decrease during the morning transition, with the relative importance depending on the rate and timing of ABL rise. We also show evidence that when the ABL is stable, small-scale (0.1-km vertical and 1-km horizontal) gradients of CO₂ and CO are large. The results illustrate the complexity of inferring surface fluxes of CO₂ from atmospheric budgets in the stable boundary layer.     

Dealing with displacement: Can “social protection” facilitate long-term adaptation to climate change?

This article explores the possibilities of using social protection to manage and reduce the risks of forced displacement resulting from climate change. It reviews the relevant literature on migration, disasters and climate change, and constructs a model through which international policies may be used to encourage resettlement options that support the capabilities and entitlements of poor and vulnerable populations. By distinguishing between rapid-onset disasters and long-term environmental change, it explores the ways in which cash transfers, asset transfers and conditional cash transfers may be used to break the cycle of vulnerability, destitution and distress migration that can occur during times of severe environmental stress. An important distinction is made between “economic migration,” which implies that households have at their disposal an opportunity to engage in forward-looking analysis about the ways in which they will invest household resources and “distress migration,” which implies that household decisions about investment and migration are largely ad hoc responses to external environmental processes and events. The article reviews recent discussions about the prospects of revising the international refugee regime, and identifies the opportunities and challenges of using social protection to support household decisions that can facilitate economic migration over the long-term.     

Demand vs supply-side approaches to mitigation: What final energy demand assumptions are made to meet 1.5 and 2 °C targets?

Today’s climate policies will shape the future trajectory of emissions. Consumption is the main driver behind recent increases in global greenhouse gas emissions, outpacing savings through improved technologies, and therefore its representation in the evidence base will impact on the success of policy interventions. The IPCC’s Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C (SR1.5) summarises global evidence on pathways for meeting below-2 °C targets, underpinned by a suite of scenarios from integrated assessment models (IAMs). We explore how final energy demand is framed within these, with the aim to making demand-related assumptions more transparent, and evaluating their significance, feasibility, and use or underutilisation as a mitigation lever. We investigate how the integrated assessment models compensate for higher and lower levels of final energy demand across scenarios, and how this varies when mitigating for 2 °C and 1.5 °C temperature targets through an analysis of (1) final energy demand projections, (2) energy-economy relationships and (3) differences between energy system decarbonisation and carbon dioxide removal in the highest and lowest energy demand pathways. We look across the full suite of mitigation pathways and assess the consequences of achieving different global carbon budgets. We find that energy demand in 2100 in the highest energy demand scenarios is approximately three to four times higher than the lowest demand pathways, but we do not find strong evidence that 1.5 °C-consistent pathways cluster on the lower end of demand levels, particularly when they allow for overshoot. The majority of demand reductions happen pre-2040, which assumes absolute decoupling from economic growth in the near-term; thereafter final energy demand levels generally grow to 2100. Lower energy demand pathways moderately result in lower renewable energy supply and lower energy system investment, but do not necessarily reduce reliance on carbon dioxide removal. In this sense, there is more scope for IAMs to implement energy demand reduction as a longer-term mitigation lever and to reduce reliance on negative emissions technologies. We demonstrate the need for integrated assessments to play closer attention to how final energy demand interacts with, relates to, and can potentially offset supply-side characteristics, alongside a more diverse evidence base.     

Statistics of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">Z</Emphasis>–<Emphasis Type="Italic">R</Emphasis> Relationship for Strong Convective Weather over the Yangtze–Huaihe River Basin and Its Application to Radar Reflectivity Data Assimilation for a Heavy Rain Event

The relationship between the radar reflectivity factor (Z) and the rainfall rate (R) is recalculated based on radar observations from 10 Doppler radars and hourly rainfall measurements at 6529 automatic weather stations over the Yangtze–Huaihe River basin. The data were collected by the National 973 Project from June to July 2013 for severe convective weather events. The Z–R relationship is combined with an empirical q_r–R relationship to obtain a new Z–q_r relationship, which is then used to correct the observational operator for radar reflectivity in the three-dimensional variational (3DVar) data assimilation system of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to improve the analysis and prediction of severe convective weather over the Yangtze–Huaihe River basin. The performance of the corrected reflectivity operator used in the WRF 3DVar data assimilation system is tested with a heavy rain event that occurred over Jiangsu and Anhui provinces and the surrounding regions on 23 June 2013. It is noted that the observations for this event are not included in the calculation of the Z–R relationship. Three experiments are conducted with the WRF model and its 3DVar system, including a control run without the assimilation of reflectivity data and two assimilation experiments with the original and corrected reflectivity operators. The experimental results show that the assimilation of radar reflectivity data has a positive impact on the rainfall forecast within a few hours with either the original or corrected reflectivity operators, but the corrected reflectivity operator achieves a better performance on the rainfall forecast than the original operator. The corrected reflectivity operator extends the effective time of radar data assimilation for the prediction of strong reflectivity. The physical variables analyzed with the corrected reflectivity operator present more reasonable mesoscale structures than those obtained with the original reflectivity operator. This suggests that the new statistical Z–R relationship is more suitable for predicting severe convective weather over the Yangtze–Huaihe River basin than the Z–R relationships currently in use.     

Preaching to different choirs: How to motivate dismissive,uncommitted, and alarmed audiences to adapt to climate change?

People vary considerably in terms of their knowledge, beliefs, and concern about climate change. Thus, an important challenge for climate change communicators is how to most effectively engage different types of audiences. This study aimed to identify distinct audience segments that vary in terms of their values, beliefs, and responses to climate change and determine for each segment which specific message attributes increased motivation to engage in climate adaptation. A sample of 1031 Australian residents (aged 18–66 years) completed an online survey assessing their values, beliefs, and behaviors related to climate change, and recording their responses to a broad range of climate change adaptation messages. Latent profile analysis identified three distinct audience segments: alarmed (34.4%), uncommitted (45.2%), and dismissive (20.3%). Sixty climate change adaptation messages were coded in terms of the presence/absence of six attributes: explicit reference to climate change, providing specific adaptation advice, strong negative emotive content, emphasis on collective responsibility, highlighting local impacts, and underscoring financial impacts. Participants viewed a random sample of six messages and rated the extent to which each message motivated them to seek out more information and immediately respond to the climate change threat portrayed in the message. Multilevel modeling indicated messages that included strong negative emotive content or provided specific adaptation advice increased adaptation intentions in all three audience segments. Omitting any mention of climate change and emphasizing local impacts increased adaptation intentions in dismissive audiences. Implications for tailoring and targeting climate change adaptation messages are discussed.     

From observer to extension agent—using research experiences to enable proactive response to climate change

A shared learning model is described, in which researchers and local practitioners collaborate on climate change studies. The legacy of such partnerships is that beyond the generation of research results, practitioners may become climate change extension agents, supporting governments and businesses in responding to climate change.     

Are there social limits to adaptation to climate change?

While there is a recognised need to adapt to changing climatic conditions, there is an emerging discourse of limits to such adaptation. Limits are traditionally analysed as a set of immutable thresholds in biological, economic or technological parameters. This paper contends that limits to adaptation are endogenous to society and hence contingent on ethics, knowledge, attitudes to risk and culture. We review insights from history, sociology and psychology of risk, economics and political science to develop four propositions concerning limits to adaptation. First, any limits to adaptation depend on the ultimate goals of adaptation underpinned by diverse values. Second, adaptation need not be limited by uncertainty around future foresight of risk. Third, social and individual factors limit adaptation action. Fourth, systematic undervaluation of loss of places and culture disguises real, experienced but subjective limits to adaptation. We conclude that these issues of values and ethics, risk, knowledge and culture construct societal limits to adaptation, but that these limits are mutable.     

Integrated assessment modelling as a positive science: private passenger road transport policies to meet a climate target well below 2 <Superscript>∘</Superscript>C

Transport generates a large and growing component of global greenhouse gas emissions contributing to climate change. Effective transport emissions reduction policies are needed in order to reach a climate target well below 2 ^°C. Representations of technology evolution in current integrated assessment models (IAM) make use of systems optimisations that may not always provide sufficient insight on consumer response to realistic policy packages for extensive use in policy-making. Here, we introduce FTT: transport, an evolutionary technology diffusion simulation model for road transport technology, as an IAM sub-component, which features sufficiently realistic features of consumers and of existing technological trajectories that enables to simulate the impact of detailed climate policies in private passenger road transport. Integrated to the simulation-based macroeconometric IAM E3ME-FTT, a plausible scenario of transport decarbonisation is given, defined by a detailed transport policy package, that reaches sufficient emissions reductions to achieve the 2 ^°C target of the Paris Agreement.     

“20110809”石家庄西部大暴雨分析

利用雷达、自动站和GPS可降水量等高时空分辨率加密观测资料,对石家庄一次局地大暴雨天气过程进行分析。结果表明：在高温高湿的大气环境下,弱切变线的西摆北伸是此次强对流天气过程出现的触发机制和预报难点,切变线位置是造成石家庄西部大暴雨的主要环流背景;强降水出现前大气水汽含量快速积累,GPS可降水量突升且存在着两个峰值,其中最大值刚好对应降水开始时间,次大值提前于降水出现时间16 h。强降水回波缘于主体回波、阵风锋以及新生回波的合并发展加强,CR、VIL和ET峰值分别达61 dBz、55 kg·m^-2和17 km。在高温高湿的大气环境下,新生发展的回波、阵风锋、速度图上辐合、气旋或逆风区等都可以预示强对流天气发展。