Testing the Effect of Life on Earth's Functioning: How Gaian Is the Earth System?

The Gaia hypothesis of Lovelock states that life regulates Earth's functioning for its own benefit, maintaining habitable, or even optimum conditions for life. But what is beneficial? What is good for one species, may be bad for another. Problems associated with this important, but ill-defined hypothesis make it difficult to test. In order to address these problems and make the concept of Gaia testable, I give a precise definition of terms. Based on these definitions, I put forward four null hypotheses, describing increasing beneficial effects of life on the conditions of Earth, ranging from an ‘Antigaian’ to an ‘optimising Gaian’ null hypothesis. I list some indications for rejection of all but one hypothesis, and conclude that life has indeed a strong tendency to affect Earth in a way which enhances the overall benefit (that is, carbon uptake). However, this does not imply that the biota regulates Earth's environment for its own benefit.     

The properties of organisms are not tunable parameters selected because they create maximum entropy production on the biosphere scale: A by-product framework in response to Kleidon

Axel Kleidon (Clim Change 66:271–319, 2004) proposed that the organisms that constitute Earth’s biota have free parameters that can be selected to create states of maximum entropy production (MEP) on various scales, from the biota to the planetary radiation balance of the Earth system. I show that Kleidon’s concept, here called the biotic-MEP hypothesis, is fundamentally mistaken. A thought experiment with a life form that would be selected against even though it would generate a higher degree of entropy demonstrates my case: A hypothetical tree that puts forth a non-productive but high-entropy producing black carpet of tissue clearly separates out entropy production from other biological processes and shows that entropy production is not a functional adaptation and therefore it cannot be selected for. A real world example comes from dimethyl sulfide-emitting plankton, which, by increasing cloud albedo, do not raise but rather lower the entropy flux of the Earth system. I provide a number of other examples of biotic processes that individually either decrease or increase the environmental entropy production. It is argued that biological effects on environmental entropy production can be expected to include both positive and negative examples, because these effects are merely by-products of the actual processes that are selected for by evolution. Given my framework of entropy production as a by-product of the true processes that are being selected for, the concept of MEP on environmental scales has no great relevance for discussions of biological evolution or the time history of the effects of life on the global system.     

The Gaia Hypothesis: Conjectures and Refutations

The uncertainties surrounding global climate change provide ample evidence, if any were necessary, of the need for a whole-system view of the Earth. Arguably the most visible – and controversial – attempt to understand Earth as a system has been Lovelock's Gaia theory. Gaia has been a fruitful hypothesis generator, and has prompted many intriguing conjectures about how biological processes might contribute to planetary-scale regulation of atmospheric chemistry and climate. In many important cases, however, these conjectures are refuted by the available data. For example, Gaia theory predicts that the composition of the atmosphere should be tightly regulated by biological processes, but rates of carbon uptake into the biosphere have accelerated by only about 2% in response to the 35% rise in atmospheric CO₂ since pre-industrial times. Gaia theory would predict that atmospheric CO₂ should be more sensitively regulated by terrestrial ecosystem uptake (which is biologically mediated) than by ocean uptake (which is primarily abiotic), but both processes are about equally insensitive to atmospheric CO₂ levels. Gaia theory predicts that biological feedbacks should make the Earth system less sensitive to perturbation, but the best available data suggest that the net effect of biologically mediated feedbacks will be to amplify, not reduce, the Earth system's sensitivity to anthropogenic climate change. Gaia theory predicts that biological by-products in the atmosphere should act as planetary climate regulators, but the Vostok ice core indicates that CO₂, CH₄, and dimethyl sulfide – all biological by-products – function to make the Earth warmer when it is warm, and colder when it is cold. Gaia theory predicts that biological feedbacks should regulate Earth's climate over the long term, but peaks in paleotemperature correspond to peaks in paleo-CO₂ in records stretching back to the Permian; thus if CO₂ is biologically regulated as part of a global thermostat, that thermostat has been hooked up backwards for at least the past 300 million years. Gaia theory predicts that organisms alter their environment to their own benefit, but throughout most of the surface ocean (comprising more than half of the globe), nutrient depletion by plankton has almost created a biological desert, and is kept in check only by the nutrient starvation of the plankton themselves. Lastly, where organisms enhance their environment for themselves, they create positive feedback; thus Gaia theory's two central principles – first, that organisms stabilize their environment, and second, that organisms alter their environment in ways that benefit them – are mutually inconsistent with one another. These examples suggest that the further development of Gaia theory will require more deliberate comparison of theory and data.     

Testing Gaia: The Effect of Life on Earth's Habitability and Regulation

The Gaia theory proposes that the Earth system self-regulates in a habitable state. Here the effect of life on the state of the Earth and its response to forcing and perturbation is considered. It is argued that life has not survived for >3.8 billion years purely by chance, rather the Earth system possesses regulatory mechanisms. The Earth system is more resistant and resilient to many (but not all) perturbations with life present and the Earth is predicted to remain inhabitable for longer with life present than it would without. With only one case to study, it is difficult to test whether the Earth exhibits such regulation by chance or because regulatory outcomes of life-environment interaction are more probable. The search for life on extra-solar planets and artificial life simulations of virtual worlds may increase the sample size. Theoretical principles suggest that regulation is a probable outcome of life-environment coupling, and on Earth it appears that there may be an innate tendency for regulatory properties to accumulate and strengthen as the biota evolves.     

On long range dependence in global surface temperature series

Long Range Dependence (LRD) scaling behavior has been argued to characterize long-term surface temperature time series. LRD is typically measured by the so-called “Hurst” coefficient, “H”. Using synthetic temperature time series generated by a simple climate model with known physics, I demonstrate that the values of H obtained for observational temperature time series can be understood in terms of the linear response to past estimated natural and anthropogenic external radiative forcing combined with the effects of random white noise weather forcing. The precise value of H is seen to depend on the particular noise realization. The overall distribution obtained over an ensemble of noise realizations is seen to be a function of the relative amplitude of external forcing and internal stochastic variability and additionally in climate “proxy” records, the amount of non-climatic noise present. There is no obvious reason to appeal to more exotic physics for an explanation of the apparent scaling behavior in observed temperature data.     

Thermodynamics and environmental constraints make the biosphere predictable – a response to Volk

In his critique of Kleidon (Clim Change 66:271–319, 2004), Volk (Clim Change 85:3–4, 2007) concludes that maximum entropy production (MEP) has no great relevance for biological evolution and the time history of life on Earth. I think that most of his points are not justified but rather reflect (a) a lack of appreciation of the central importance of entropy production as the “universal currency” that measures what keeps systems working, including the biosphere, (b) a misunderstanding of how biotic activity is embedded in the global entropy budget, and (c) a lack of distinction between optimal environmental conditions that maximize productivity and result from environmental tradeoffs versus optimal function of organisms to some internal tradeoffs. The examples that he uses to support his conclusions show flaws in that these mostly discuss single environmental effects and immediate system responses. Optimal environmental conditions, however, requires at least two effects that result in a trade-off, so it is not surprising that his examples seem to contradict optimality and MEP. And the immediate response of a system to change can be very different than the response in steady state, for which MEP applies. This is specifically important to be considered in the context of the “cheater” problem. In summary, I do not think that Volk makes convincing arguments that contradict MEP, although I certainly agree that there is a lot more work to be done to fully recognize the great importance that thermodynamics and MEP play in shaping the Earth’s biosphere and its evolutionary history.     

Bio-controlled thermostasis involving the sulfur cycle

The Gaia hypothesis proposed by Lovelock and Margulis presumes the existence of an unspecified biological means of ameliorating climate that has operated since the emergence of life 3500 Myr ago: Recently it was suggested that the mechanism of thermostasis may involve biospheric cycling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. We suggest an alternative hypothesis of biothermostasis operating through the sulfur cycle, rather than the carbon cycle. The mechanism would operate by altering planetary albedo through the selective creation of biospheric organic sulfide gases which go on to metamorphize into submicron particles and introduce cooling. In contrast to the carbon-cycle mechanism, sulfur-based cooling would have the ability to ameliorate climate well into the future, in principle over stellar Main Sequence time intervals. The main feature of interest is that the S cycle represents a particularly favorable thermodynamic pathway, involving three to four orders of magnitude less mass of active material cycled through the biospheric-atmospheric system (in response to a given temperature-imposed stress) than would be the case for a greenhouse gas hypothesis. There is no evidence that the suggested biospheric controlled particle-albedo change mechanism is actually operating, but we speculate that the probability of its rising importance and perhaps eventual dominance will improve when the partial pressure of atmospheric CO₂ drops low enough to impose stress on metabolic processes. The intriguing thing about the process is its extremely high efficiency.     

A Hierarchy of Energy- and Flux-Budget (EFB) Turbulence Closure Models for Stably-Stratified Geophysical Flows

Here we advance the physical background of the energy- and flux-budget turbulence closures based on the budget equations for the turbulent kinetic and potential energies and turbulent fluxes of momentum and buoyancy, and a new relaxation equation for the turbulent dissipation time scale. The closure is designed for stratified geophysical flows from neutral to very stable and accounts for the Earth’s rotation. In accordance with modern experimental evidence, the closure implies the maintaining of turbulence by the velocity shear at any gradient Richardson number Ri, and distinguishes between the two principally different regimes: “strong turbulence” at ${Ri \ll 1}$ typical of boundary-layer flows and characterized by the practically constant turbulent Prandtl number Pr _T; and “weak turbulence” at Ri > 1 typical of the free atmosphere or deep ocean, where Pr _T asymptotically linearly increases with increasing Ri (which implies very strong suppression of the heat transfer compared to the momentum transfer). For use in different applications, the closure is formulated at different levels of complexity, from the local algebraic model relevant to the steady-state regime of turbulence to a hierarchy of non-local closures including simpler down-gradient models, presented in terms of the eddy viscosity and eddy conductivity, and a general non-gradient model based on prognostic equations for all the basic parameters of turbulence including turbulent fluxes.     

Temperature oscillations may shorten male lifespan via natural selection in utero

Much literature argues that natural selection has conserved mechanisms that spontaneously abort fetuses, particularly males, least likely to survive in prevailing environmental conditions including cold ambient temperature. These reports imply the hypothesis that males in gestation during relatively warm periods who confront relatively cold climates in early life live, on average, shorter lives than other males. We estimate the effect of warm-to-cold temperature shifts on the observed lifespan at age one of males born in Sweden from 1850 through 1915. We test this hypothesis using annual cohort lifespan at age 1?year for Swedish males from 1850 to 1915. For our independent variable, we score a series “1” for birth cohorts that experienced relatively warm temperatures in utero but relatively cold temperatures from age 1 through 4?years, and “0” for other cohorts. We use time-series methods, which adjust the data to remove autocorrelation, to estimate the association between these variables. Consistent with theory, males in gestation during relatively warm times who encounter relatively cold temperatures in early life have a shorter lifespan than other males. The association survives adjustment for the longevity of females as well as the main effect of temperatures during gestation and early life. Our findings imply that the increased frequency and amplitude of temperature shifts expected from climate change could influence which humans survive gestation and how long they live.     

Commentary on “The Anthropogenic Greenhouse Era Began Thousands of Years Ago”

Bill Ruddiman (Climatic Change, 61, 261–293, 2003) recently suggested that early civilisations could have saved us from an ice age because land management over substantial areas caused an increase in atmospheric CO₂ concentration. Ruddiman suggests a decreasing “natural course” of the Holocene greenhouse gases concentrations and sea-level by referring to analogous situations in the past, namely the last three interglacials. An examination of marine isotopic stage 11 would perhaps make Ruddiman’s argument even more thought-challenging. Yet, the hypothesis of a natural lowering of CO₂ during the Holocene contradicts recent numerical simulations of the Earth carbon cycle during this period. We think that the only way to resolve this conflict is to properly assimilate the palæoclimate information in numerical climate models. As a general rule, models are insufficiently tested with respect to the wide range of climate situations that succeeded during the Pleistocene. In this comment, we present three definitions of palæoclimate information assimilation with relevant examples. We also present original results with the Louvain-la-Neuve climate-ice sheet model suggesting that if, indeed, the Holocene atmospheric CO₂ increase is anthropogenic, a late Holocene glacial inception is plausible, but not certain, depending on the exact time evolution of the atmospheric CO₂ concentration during this period.     

Identification of data-driven Dutch dietary patterns that benefit the environment and are healthy

More sustainable dietary patterns are needed to mitigate global warming. This study aims to identify data-driven healthy dietary patterns that benefit the environment. In EPIC-NL, diet was assessed using a 178-item FFQ in 36,203 participants aged 20–70 years between 1993 and 1997. The Dutch Healthy Diet index 2015 (DHD15-index) was used to score healthiness of the diet. As proxy for environmental impact, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were calculated using life cycle analysis. To determine patterns that are both healthy and environmentally friendly, reduced rank regression was applied. A “Plant-based Pattern” characterized by high consumption of fruits, vegetables, and legumes, and low consumption of fries, red meat, and processed meat and a “Dairy-based Pattern” characterized by high consumption of dairy, and nuts and seeds and low consumption of coffee and tea, sugar-containing sodas, low-fiber bread, and savory sauces were derived. At equal energy intake, the diet of adherents (highest quartile) to the “Plant-based Pattern” were significantly healthier (89.8 points on the DHD15-index, p?<?0.0001) and more sustainable (3.96 kg C0₂-eq/day, p?<?0.0001) compared to the average diet (76.2 points, 4.06 kg C0₂-eq/day), whereas the “Dairy-based Pattern” was somewhat healthier (77.9 points, p?<?0.0001), but less sustainable (4.43 kg C0₂-eq/day, p?<?0.0001). When deriving dietary patterns based on health and environmental aspects of the diets, a “Plant-based” and a “Dairy-based” pattern were observed in our study population. Of these, the plant-based diet benefits health as well as the environment.     

Viable responses to the equity-responsibility dilemma: a consequentialist view

This paper aims at clarifying some conceptual flaws blurring the equity-efficiency debates involved in the setting of objectives of GHGs emissions control beyond 2012. To this end, it carries out numerical experiments that test the viability of agreements grounded on two contrasting target allocation rules: a “Soft Landing” rule prolonging a Kyoto-type agreement; and a “Convergence” rule progressively re-directing Kyoto towards a per capita emissions endowment. The numerical results demonstrate the sensitivity of the impact to the metric used to assess it and to assumptions regarding the interaction between the cap and trade system and accompanying measures such as domestic policies (characterised as simple fiscal reforms) and international public funding. In a further step, the paper derives some lessons about how to reconcile two political imperatives: (a) an ex-post or “consequentialist” approach to equity, which however cannot fully avoid relying on ex-ante rules, and (b) the necessity of an agreement on such stable ex-ante rules to set up emissions targets and efficient emissions trading. Such reconciliation suggests a coming back to the environment/development “Gordian Knot”, which underpins all global environmental affairs since the Stockholm Conference in 1972: the equity-efficiency dilemma has to be set in a broader sustainable development perspective whereby climate policies are integrated with development priorities of the poorest countries so as to create a leverage effect on development.     

Scaling fluctuation analysis and statistical hypothesis testing of anthropogenic warming

Although current global warming may have a large anthropogenic component, its quantification relies primarily on complex General Circulation Models (GCM’s) assumptions and codes; it is desirable to complement this with empirically based methodologies. Previous attempts to use the recent climate record have concentrated on “fingerprinting” or otherwise comparing the record with GCM outputs. By using CO₂ radiative forcings as a linear surrogate for all anthropogenic effects we estimate the total anthropogenic warming and (effective) climate sensitivity finding: ΔT _anth  = 0.87 ± 0.11 K, $\uplambda_{{2{\text{x}}{\text{CO}}_{2} ,{\text{eff}}}} = 3.08 \pm 0.58\,{\text{K}}$ . These are close the IPPC AR5 values ΔT _anth  = 0.85 ± 0.20 K and $\uplambda_{{2{\text{x}}{\text{CO}}_{2} }} = 1.5\!-\!4.5\,{\text{K}}$ (equilibrium) climate sensitivity and are independent of GCM models, radiative transfer calculations and emission histories. We statistically formulate the hypothesis of warming through natural variability by using centennial scale probabilities of natural fluctuations estimated using scaling, fluctuation analysis on multiproxy data. We take into account two nonclassical statistical features—long range statistical dependencies and “fat tailed” probability distributions (both of which greatly amplify the probability of extremes). Even in the most unfavourable cases, we may reject the natural variability hypothesis at confidence levels >99 %.     

Tracer dispersal by mid-ocean mesoscale eddies. Part I. Ensemble statistics

The rate at which, and the processes by which, a passive tracer is stirred and mixed in a turbulent mesoscale eddy field are examined for environmental parameters characteristic of a homogeneous mid-ocean region. The simulated, time-dependent eddy field is obtained by direct integration of the forced/damped barotropic vorticity equation; the dispersal of a spatially localized, instantaneous release of tracer (a “tracer spot”) within the evolving velocity field is subsequently computed from the advective-diffusive equation. An ensemble of 10 independent releases is used to determin the average spreading properties of the tracer spot.On an f-plane, the ensemble-averaged dispersal is approximately isotropic, and is associated with an effective diffusion rate substantially greater than that supported in the absence of turbulent advection. Quantitatively, the effective ensemble-averaged diffusivity is shown to be 0(UL), where U and L are characteristic velocity and length scales of the turbulent flow. This estimate is consistent with the traditional mixing length hypothesis. With the addition of β, the simulated flow field has substantial zonal anisotropy. Ensemble-averaged dispersal of tracer spots is similarly anisotropic, and the overall rate of tracer dispersal is substantially reduced over its f-plane value.Both with and without β, the initial rate at which maximum tracer concentration and total tracer variance decay are given by the approximate law exp[? αγt] where γ is the RMS rate of strain, and α is approximately constant at a value of 0.5. The heightened rate of variance loss over that associated with pure (subgridscale) diffusion is shown to be accommodated by the rapid transfer of tracer variance from the largest to the shortest scale tracer features, that is, by the rapid sharpening of tracer gradients by turbulent advection. A detailed examination of the dispersal of individual tracer realizations, and the associated question of tracer streakiness, is given in part II of this work (Keffer and Haidvogel, in preparation).     

Pursuing sustainable nitrogen management following the “5 Ps” principles: Production,People, Planet,Policy and Partnerships

Nitrogen (N) is an essential nutrient to support life, but if poorly managed, can adversely affect the environment, ecosystems and human health. The global challenge of achieving food security with minimal ecosystem degradation and human health impacts hinges on sustainable N management, which goes beyond farm level and requires concerted efforts from a range of stakeholders. While various metrics have been developed to inform N management, most of them focus on one or two stakeholders only. Few efforts have tried to integrate N metrics to derive a coherent set of actions for all stakeholders. Here we propose the “5 Ps” principles (Production, People, Planet, Policy and Partnerships) that shape guidelines for sustainable N management with multidimensional N metrics (i.e., N use efficiency, virtual N factor, N footprint, N neutrality, reactive N spatial intensity, N boundary, N price and N equity). The “5 Ps” principles address the environmental, social and economic dimensions of sustainability. These principles allow multidimensional evaluation of N management, highlight specific areas for improvement, direct future research, and support the design of effective policy and legislation. They facilitate collective actions of producers, consumers, researchers and policy makers towards sustainable N management regionally and globally.     

Examining barriers and opportunities for sustainable adaptation to climate change in Interior Alaska

Human adaptation to climate change is comprised of “adjustments” in response to (or anticipation of) climatic impacts. Adaptation does not necessarily imply favorable or equitable change, nor does it automatically imply sustainable use of ecosystems. “Sustainable adaptation” in this case implies strategic, collective action to respond to or anticipate harmful climate change to reduce disruption to key resource flows and adverse effects on general well-being. This research examined social-ecological system responses to recent warming trends in the remote northwest region of Interior Alaska using a unique vulnerability and adaptive capacity assessment (VA) approach that integrated indigenous observations and understanding of climate (IC) with western social and natural sciences. The study found that Alaska Native communities that were historically highly mobile and flexible across the landscape for subsistence hunting are increasingly restricted by the institutional rigidity of the regulatory system for wildlife and subsistence management. This has resulted in negative impacts to game harvest access and success threatening food security and community well-being. This suggests that policies limiting the ability of natural resource-dependent societies to be flexible, diversify, or innovate can threaten livelihoods and exacerbate vulnerability. Nevertheless, opportunities for sustainable adaptation exist where wildlife management is adaptive and includes an understanding of and response to climate variability and slow-onset climate change with the human dimensions of subsistence hunting for more effective “in-season” management.     

Earth Summit Mission 2022: Scientific Expedition and Research on Mt. Qomolangma Helps Reveal the Synergy between Westerly Winds and Monsoon and the Resulting Climatic and Environmental Effects

“Earth summit mission 2022” is one of the landmark scientific research activities of the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research(STEP). This scientific expedition firstly used advanced technology and methods to detect vertical meteorological elements and produce forecasts for mountain climbing. The “Earth summit mission 2022”Qomolangma scientific expedition exceeded an altitude of over 8000 meters for the first time and carried out a comprehensive scientific investigation missi...     

Impacts of snow cover on vegetation phenology in the arctic from satellite data

The dynamics of snow cover is considered an essential factor in phenological changes in Arctic tundra and other northern biomes. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)/Terra satellite data were selected to monitor the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of vegetation phenology and the timing of snow cover in western Arctic Russia (the Yamal Peninsula) during the period 2000-10. The magnitude of changes in vegetation phenology and the timing of snow cover were highly heterogeneous across latitudinal gradients and vegetation types in western Arctic Russia. There were identical latitudinal gradients for "start of season" (SOS) (r2 = 0.982, p<0.0001), "end of season" (EOS) (r2 = 0.938, p<0.0001), and "last day of snow cover" (LSC) (r2 = 0.984, p<0.0001), while slightly weaker relationships between latitudinal gradients and "first day of snow cover" (FSC) were observed (r2 = 0.48, p<0.0042). Delayed SOS and FSC, and advanced EOS and LSC were found in the south of the region, while there were completely different shifts in the north. SOS for the various land cover features responded to snow cover differently, while EOS among different vegetation types responded to snowfall almost the same. The timing of snow cover is likely a key driving factor behind the dynamics of vegetation phenology over the Arctic tundra. The present study suggests that snow cover urgently needs more attention to advance understanding of vegetation phenology in the future.     

A note on the multi-α solutions of the upper bounding problem for thermal convection

The transition to “multi-α” solutions of the upper bounding problem for thermal convection is discussed. For convection in a fluid contained between parallel stress-free perfectly conducting boundaries, the “single-α” solutions of Straus (1973) are used to determine the Rayleigh number R at which the first transition occurs. Two upper bounding problems are treated: one valid for all values of the Prandtl number and one valid only for large Prandtl numbers. A significant difference between the two problems is noted. The former has a transition at R ～ 28200; the latter has no transition within the range of Rayleigh numbers treated here: R ? 2.3 · 10⁵.