Climate changes and their impacts on water resources in the arid regions: a case study of the Tarim River basin, China

Streamflow series of five hydrological stations were analyzed with aim to indicate variability of water resources in the Tarim River basin. Besides, impacts of climate changes on water resources were investigated by analyzing daily precipitation and temperature data of 23 meteorological stations covering 1960–2005. Some interesting and important results were obtained: (1) the study region is characterized by increasing temperature, however, only temperature in autumn is in significant increasing trend; (2) precipitation changes present different properties. Generally, increasing precipitation can be detected. However, only the precipitation in the Tienshan mountain area is in significant increasing trend. Annual streamflow of major rivers of the Tarim River basin are not in significant trends, except that of the Akesu River which is in significantly increasing trend. Due to the geomorphologic properties of the Tienshan mountain area, precipitation in this area demonstrates significant increasing trend and which in turn leads to increasing streamflow of the Akesu River. Due to the fact that the sources of streamflow of the rivers in the Tarim River basin are precipitation and melting glacial, both increasing precipitation and accelerating melting ice has the potential to cause increasing streamflow. These results are of practical and scientific merits in basin-scale water resource management in the arid regions in China under the changing environment.     

Effects of check dams on runoff and sediment load in a semi-arid river basin of the Yellow River

Check dam has become an efficient measure to control sediment transport and soil erosion in the gully areas. It plays an important role in soil erosion control and agricultural production in the Loess Plateau. Due to construction of numerous check dams, it is necessary to assess the impact of check dams on runoff and sediment load at basin scale. This study applied the SWAT model to simulate monthly runoff and sediment load in the Huangfuchuan basin in the middle reaches of the Yellow River. Twenty key check dams are coupled to the SWAT model simulation in the calibration (1978–1984) and validation period (1985–1989). The determination coefficient (R ²) and the Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient (NS) were 0.94 and 0.83 for runoff, and 0.82 and 0.81 for sediment load in the calibration period, respectively. During the validation period, the R ² and NS were 0.93 and 0.80 for runoff, and 0.90 and 0.83 for sediment load respectively. The results showed that the model simulation was acceptable. Subsequently, the calibrated model was used to examine the effect of check dams on runoff and sediment load between 1990 and 2012. It showed that the increasing check dams contributed 24.8 and 27.7% to the decrease of annual runoff and sediment load during the period of 1990–1999, whereas it reached up to 65.2% for runoff decline and 78.3% for sediment load reduction within 2000–2012. Overall, this study illustrated a case study of the dominant role of check dams on variation of runoff and sediment load in the Huangfuchuan basin.     

中国干旱和半干旱带的10年际演变特征

利用Thornthwaite的干湿分类函数,对近100年中国干旱和半干旱区界限的10年际变动特征进行了分析.结果发现：近50年,在东北中部和华北北部,干旱和半干旱边界呈波动式东移,有明显向东扩展的趋势;在华北南部和陕西南部,半干旱边界也呈波动式南扩,其中陕西南部半干旱边界向南扩展的范围最大.近100年,10年际的干旱和半干旱边界也呈波动式摆动且存在向东和向南扩展的趋势,但在华北南部与东北中部两个地区以20世纪20年代前后干旱和半干旱的范围最大、最强.干旱和半干旱分界线的位置变化与区域升温和降水减少密切相关.     

Comparison of evapotranspiration variations between the Yellow River and Pearl River basin, China

Based on daily meteorological data at 43 gauging stations in the Pearl River basin and 65 gauging stations in the Yellow River basin, we analyze changing properties of actual evapotranspiration (ET_a), reference evapotranspiration (ET_ref) and precipitation in these two river basins. In our study, Pearl River basin is taken as the ‘energy-limited’ system and the Yellow River basin as the ‘water-limited’ system. The results indicate decreasing ET_a in the Pearl River and Yellow River basin. However, different changing properties are detected for ET_ref when compared to ET_a. The middle and upper Yellow River basin are characterized by increasing ET_ref values, whereas the Pearl River basin is dominated by decreasing ET_ref values. This result demonstrates enhancing drying force in the Yellow River basin. ET_a depends mainly on the changes of precipitation amount in the Yellow River basin. In the Pearl River basin, however, ET_a changes are similar to those of ET_ref, i.e. both are in decreasing trend and which may imply weakening hydrological cycle in the Pearl River basin. Different influencing factors are identified behind the ET_a and ET_ref in the Pearl River and Yellow River basin: In the Pearl River basin, intensifying urbanization and increasing aerosol may contribute much to the evapotranspiration changes. Variations of precipitation amount may largely impact the spatial and temporal patterns of ET_a in the Yellow River basin. The current study is practically and scientifically significant for regional assessment of water resource in the arid and humid regions of China under the changing climate.     

Projection of glacier runoff in Yarkant River basin and Beida River basin,Western China

Potential changes in glacier area, mass balance and runoff in the Yarkant River Basin (YRB) and Beida River Basin (BRB) are projected for the period from 2011 to 2050 employing the modified monthly degree‐day model forced by climate change projection. Future monthly air temperature and precipitation were derived from the simple average of 17, 16 and 17 General Circulation Model (GCM) projections following the A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios, respectively. These data were downscaled to each station employing the Delta method, which computes differences between current and future GCM simulations and adds these changes to observed time series. Model parameters calibrated with observations or results published in the literature between 1961 and 2006 were kept unchanged. Annual glacier runoff in YRB is projected to increase until 2050, and the total runoff over glacier area in 1970 is projected to increase by about 13%–35% during 2011–2050 relative to the average during 1961–2006. Annual glacier runoff and the total runoff over glacier area in 1970 in BRB is projected to increase initially and then to reach a tipping point during 2011–2030. There are prominent increases in summer, but only small increase in May and October of glacier runoff in YRB, and significant increases during late spring and early summer and significant decreases in July and late summer of glacier runoff in BRB. This study highlights the great differences among basins in their response to future climate warming. The specific runoff from areas exposed after glacier retreat relative to 1970 is projected to general increasing, which must be considered when evaluating the potential change of glacier runoff. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Climate changes and their impacts on water resources in semiarid regions: a case study of the Wei River basin,China

Understanding the impacts of climate change and human activity on the hydrological processes in river basins is important for maintaining ecosystem integrity and sustaining local economic development. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of climate variability and human activity on mean annual flow in the Wei River, the largest tributary of the Yellow River. The nonparametric Mann–Kendall test and wavelet transform were applied to detect the variations of hydrometeorological variables in the semiarid Wei River basin in the northwestern China. The identifications were based on streamflow records from 1958 to 2008 at four hydrological stations as well as precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) data from 21 climate stations. A simple method based on Budyko curve was used to evaluate potential impacts of climate change and human activities on mean annual flow. The results show that annual streamflow decreased because of the reduced precipitation and increased PET at most stations. Both annual and seasonal precipitation and PET demonstrated mixed trends of decreasing and increasing, although significant trends (P < 0.05) were consistently detected in spring and autumn at most stations. Significant periodicities of 0.5 and 1 year (P < 0.05) were examined in all the time series. The spectrum of streamflow at the Huaxian station shows insignificant annual cycle during 1971–1975, 1986–1993 and 1996–2008, which is probably resulted from human activities. Climate variability greatly affected water resources in the Beiluo River, whereas human activities (including soil and water conservation, irrigation, reservoirs construction, etc.) accounted more for the changes of streamflow in the area near the Huaxian station during different periods. The results from this article can be used as a reference for water resources planning and management in the semiarid Wei River basin. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Simulation of snowmelt runoff in ungauged basins based on MODIS: a case study in the Lhasa River basin

It is theoretically and practically significant to conduct snowmelt runoff simulations and hydrological research for high-elevation regions. The Lhasa River basin, an ungauged basin, is a typical alpine headwater region where snowmelt runoff contributes significantly to its stream flow. In this study, the snowmelt period, defined by the snow cover curves obtained at different altitudinal zones based on Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Digital Elevation Model data, occurred from March 6 to July 12 in the basin. The snowmelt processes were simulated with the Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) in 2002 and 2003 for calibration and validation, respectively. The coefficients of determination (R ² ) were 0.86 and 0.87 for calibration and validation, respectively, and the Nash–Sutcliffe coefficients were both 0.80, which indicate reasonable performances in simulating hydrological processes in the Lhasa River basin. The simulated snowmelt at altitudes below 5,000 m accounts for most of the snowmelt. And the simulated snowmelt runoff contributed 3–6 % to the total runoff. The sensitivity of individual parameters was analysed and ranked as follows: α and γ > C _S  > C _R  > T _crit . In short, the SRM based on MODIS remotely sensed data performed well for the ungauged Lhasa River basin.     

Attribution of runoff change in the alpine basin: a case study of the Heihe Upstream Basin,China

Quantifying the relative contributions of different factors to runoff change is helpful for basin management, especially in the context of climate change and anthropogenic activities. The effect of snow change on runoff is seldom evaluated. We attribute the runoff change in the Heihe Upstream Basin (HUB), an alpine basin in China, using two approaches: a snowmelt-based water balance model and the Budyko framework. Results from these approaches show good consistency. Precipitation accounts for 58% of the increasing runoff. The contribution of land-cover change seems unremarkable for the HUB as a whole, where land-cover change has a major effect on runoff in each sub-basin, but its positive effect on increasing runoff in sub-basins 1 and 3 is offset by the negative effect in sub-basin 2. Snow change plays an essential role in each sub-basin, with a contribution rate of around 30%. The impact of potential evapotranspiration is almost negligible.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis

ASSOCIATE EDITOR S. Huang     

Trends in precipitation extremes over the Yellow River basin in North China: Changing properties and causes

The Mann–Kendall test, composite analysis, and 68 high‐quality meteorological stations were used to explore the spatiotemporal variations and causes of precipitation extremes over the Yellow River basin (YRB) during the period of 1960–2011. Results showed that (a) the YRB is characterized by decreases of most precipitation indices, excluding the simple daily intensity index, which has increasing trends in most locations, suggesting that the intensity of rainfall and the probability of occurrence of droughts have increased during the last decades. (b) Trends of extreme precipitation show mixed patterns in the lower reach of the YRB, where drought–flood disasters have increased. The increases in heavy rainfall and decreases in consecutive wet days in recent years over the northwestern portions of the YRB indicate that the intensity and frequency of above‐normal precipitation have been trending upward in domains. In the central‐south YRB, the maximum 1‐day precipitation (RX1day) and precipitation on extremely wet days (R99p) have significantly increased, whereas the number of consecutive dry days has declined; these trends suggest that the intensity of precipitation extremes has increased in those regions, although the frequency of extreme and total rainfall has decreased. (c) The spatial distributions of seasonal trends in RX1day and maximum 5‐day precipitation (RX5day) exhibited less spatial coherence, and winter is becoming the wettest season regionwide, particularly over the central‐south YRB. (d) There were multiple and overlapping cycles of variability for most precipitation indices, indicating variations of time and frequency. (e) Elevation is intimately correlated with precipitation indices, and a weakening East Asian summer monsoon during 1986–2011 compared to that in 1960–1985 may have played an important role in the declines in most indices over the YRB. Therefore, the combined effects from local and teleconnection forcing factors have collectively influenced the variations in precipitation extremes across the YRB. This study may provide valuable evidence for the effective management of water resources and the conduct of agricultural activities at the basin scale.     

Many-year variations of river runoff in the Selenga basin

Many-year variations of river runoff in the Selenga basin are analyzed along with precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and basin water storages. Data of ground-based (1932–2015) and satellite observations, as well as the analysis of literature data suggest the presence of within-century cycles in the series of annual and minimum runoff. Compared with 1934–1975, the Selenga Basin shows a general tendency toward a decrease in the maximum (by 5–35%) and mean annual (up to 15%) runoff at an increase in the minimum runoff (by 30%), a decrease in the mean annual precipitation (by 12%), and an increase in potential evapotranspiration by 4% against the background of a decrease in evaporation because of lesser soil moisture content and an increase in moisture losses for infiltration because of permafrost degradation. The observed changes in water balance may have unfavorable environmental effects.     

Analyses of trends and causes for variations in runoff and sediment load of the Yellow River

Due to the impacts of globe climate change and human activities, dramatic variations in runoff and sediment load were observed for the Yellow River. Analyses of nearly 65 years' data measured at main hydrologic-stations on the Yellow River from 1950 to 2014 indicated that, except for the Tangnaihai station in the head region, sharp downward trends existed in both the annual runoff and annual sedi-ment load according to the Mann–Kendal trend test;and their abrupt changes occurred in 1986 and in 1980, respectively, according to the rank sum test. Factors affecting the changes in the runoff and sediment load were very complicated. Results indicated that the reducing precipitation and the increasing water consumption were the main causes for the runoff decline, while the impoundment of the Longyangxia Reservoir and its combined operation with the Liujiaxia Reservoir exerted a direct bearing on the abrupt change in the annual runoff. In addition to the sediment load decrease associated with the runoff reduction, the reduced storm intensity, the conducted soil erosion control, and the constructed dam buildings all played an important role in the trends and abrupt changes of sediment load decline.     

Quantitative assessment of the impact of climate variability and human activities on runoff changes: a case study in four catchments of the Haihe River basin,China

Quantitative evaluation of the effect of climate variability and human activities on runoff is of great importance for water resources planning and management in terms of maintaining the ecosystem integrity and sustaining the society development. In this paper, hydro‐climatic data from four catchments (i.e. Luanhe River catchment, Chaohe River catchment, Hutuo River catchment and Zhanghe River catchment) in the Haihe River basin from 1957 to 2000 were used to quantitatively attribute the hydrological response (i.e. runoff) to climate change and human activities separately. To separate the attributes, the temporal trends of annual precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PET) and runoff during 1957–2000 were first explored by the Mann–Kendall test. Despite that only Hutuo River catchment was dominated by a significant negative trend in annual precipitation, all four catchments presented significant negative trend in annual runoff varying from ?0.859 (Chaohe River) to ?1.996 mm a^?1 (Zhanghe River). Change points in 1977 and 1979 are detected by precipitation–runoff double cumulative curves method and Pettitt's test for Zhanghe River and the other three rivers, respectively, and are adopted to divide data set into two study periods as the pre‐change period and post‐change period. Three methods including hydrological model method, hydrological sensitivity analysis method and climate elasticity method were calibrated with the hydro‐climatic data during the pre‐change period. Then, hydrological runoff response to climate variability and human activities was quantitatively evaluated with the help of the three methods and based on the assumption that climate and human activities are the only drivers for streamflow and are independent of each other. Similar estimates of anthropogenic and climatic effects on runoff for catchments considered can be obtained from the three methods. We found that human activities were the main driving factors for the decline in annual runoff in Luanhe River catchment, Chaohe River catchment and Zhanghe River catchment, accounting for over 50% of runoff reduction. However, climate variability should be responsible for the decrease in annual runoff in the Hutuo River catchment. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Response of runoff to climate change in the Wei River basin,China

Abstract

Climate change will likely have severe effects on water shortages, flood disasters and the deterioration of aquatic systems. In this study, the hydrological response to climate change was assessed in the Wei River basin (WRB), China. The statistical downscaling method (SDSM) was used to downscale regional climate change scenarios on the basis of the outputs of three general circulation models (GCMs) and two emissions scenarios. Driven by these scenarios, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was set up, calibrated and validated to assess the impact of climate change on hydrological processes of the WRB. The results showed that the average annual runoff in the periods 2046–2065 and 2081–2100 would increase by 12.4% and 45%, respectively, relative to the baseline period 1961–2008. Low flows would be much lower, while high flows would be much higher, which means there would be more extreme events of droughts and floods. The results exhibited consistency in the spatial distribution of runoff change under most scenarios, with decreased runoff in the upstream regions, and increases in the mid- and lower reaches of the WRB.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor D. Yang     

Spatial distribution of monthly potential evaporation over mountainous regions: case of the Lhasa River basin,China

Abstract

This paper develops an algorithm for computing spatially-distributed monthly potential evaporation (PE) over a mountainous region, the Lhasa River basin in China. To develop the algorithm, first, correlation analysis of different meteorological variables was conducted. It was observed that PE is significantly correlated with vapour pressure and temperature differences between the land surface and the atmosphere. Second, the Dalton model, which was developed based on the mass transfer mechanism, was modified by including the influence of the related meteorological variables. Third, the influence of elevation on monthly temperature, vapour pressure and wind velocity was analysed, and functions for extending these meteorological variables to any given altitude were developed. Fourth, the inverse distance weighting method was applied to integrate the extended meteorological variables from five stations adjacent to and within the Lhasa River basin. Finally, using the modified Dalton model and the integrated meteorological variables, we computed the spatially-distributed monthly PE. This study indicated that spatially-distributed PE can be obtained using data from sparse meteorological stations, even if only one station is available; the results show that in the Lhasa River basin PE decreases when elevation increases. The new algorithm, including the modified model and the method for spatially extending meteorological variables can provide the basic inputs for distributed hydrological models.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz     

Year-to-year and many-year river runoff variations in Baikal drainage basin

New approaches, methods, and formulas, proposed by the author, are used to study many-year and year-to-year variations of the annual, maximal, and minimal runoff of rivers in Baikal Lake drainage basin. The stationary character of most changes in the annual and maximal runoff (including major Baikal tributaries at the gages nearest to the lake) is demonstrated and the percentage of transient changes in the minimal runoff is shown to be close to the mean world characteristics. Some effects found in Baikal Basin have been generally recorded only in the data of runoff observations in much larger basins or globally: “the law of the power of minus 0.5” for the dependence of the coefficient of variation and the correlation between neighboring years on the mean runoff depth, a fixed structure of the orders of stochastic (autoregression models), the effect of bifurcation of the models of maximal and minimal runoff at the passage from drier to wetter watersheds.     

Relative effects of human activities and climate change on the river runoff in an arid basin in northwest China

Understanding the mechanisms of river runoff variation is important for the effective management of water resources in arid and semi‐arid regions. This study uses long‐term observational data as a basis for examining the effects of human activities and climate change on the runoff variation of Jinghe River Basin, a typical arid inland basin in northwest China. A distributed hydrological model called the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, combined with a sequential cluster method and a separation approach, was used to quantify and distinguish the effects of human activities and climate change on runoff. The hydrological sequence before 1981 can be considered natural. However, human activities have significantly affected runoff since 1981. The runoff reduction caused by human activities between 1981 and 2008 accounted for 85.7% of the total reduction in the downstream of Jinghe River, whereas that caused by climatic variation was only 14.3%. This observation suggests that human activities are the major driver of runoff variation in the basin. Although the role of climate change in driving runoff variation has been identified to be prevalent and dominant in arid regions, this study highlights the importance of human activities. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Shallow groundwater dynamics and its driving forces in extremely arid areas: a case study of the lower Heihe River in northwestern China

Shallow groundwater is an important source of water for the maintenance and restoration of ecosystems in arid environments, which necessitates a deeper understanding of its complex spatial and temporal dynamics driven by hydrological processes. This study explores the dominant hydrological processes that control the shallow groundwater dynamics in the Gobi Desert‐riparian‐oasis system of the lower Heihe River, a typical arid inland river basin located in northwestern China. The groundwater level and temperature were monitored in 14 shallow wells at 30‐min intervals during the 2010–2012 period. After combining this information with meteorological and hydrological data, a comprehensive analysis was conducted to understand the dynamic behaviour of the shallow groundwater system and to determine the dominant factors that control the groundwater flow processes. The results of the study indicate notably large temporal and spatial variations in both the groundwater level and temperature. Noticeable fluctuations in the groundwater level (0.5–1 m) and temperature (4–8 °C) were observed in the riparian zone, evidencing a clear river influence. In comparison, the groundwater fluctuations in the Gobi Desert were more stable (the annual variations of the water table were less than 0.5 m, and the water temperature varied by no more than 2 °C). Strong variations in the groundwater table (1.5–5.0 m/year) and temperature (1.5–6.5 °C), mainly caused by surface flood irrigation and groundwater pumping, were observed in the oasis area. The investigated sites were categorized into three types that reflect the dominant hydrological processes: (1) the riparian zone, dominated by riverbank filtration and groundwater evapotranspiration; (2) the Gobi Desert area, controlled by groundwater evaporation and lateral recharge; and (3) the oasis area, dominated by groundwater evapotranspiration as well as surface–groundwater interactions caused by human activities. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Study on snowmelt runoff simulation in the Kaidu River basin

Alpine snowmelt is an important generation mode for runoff in the source region of the Tarim River basin, which covers four subbasins characterized by large area, sparse gauge stations, mixed runoff supplied by snowmelt and rainfall, and remarkably spatially heterogeneous precipitation. Taking the Kaidu River basin as a research area, this study analyzes the influence of these characteristics on the variables and parameters of the Snow Runoff Model and discusses the corresponding determination strategy to improve the accuracy of snowmelt simulation and forecast. The results show that: (i) The temperature controls the overall tendency of simulated runoff and is dominant to simulation accuracy, as the measured daily mean temperature cannot represent the average level of the same elevation in the basin and that directly inputting it to model leads to inaccurate simulations. Based on the analysis of remote sensing snow maps and simulation results, it is reasonable to approximate the mean temperature with 0.5 time daily maximum temperature. (ii) For the conflict between the limited gauge station and remarkably spatial heterogeneity of rainfall, it is not realistic to compute rainfall for each elevation zone. After the measured rainfall is multiplied by a proper coefficient and adjusted with runoff coefficient for rainfall, the measured rainfall data can satisfy the model demands. (iii) Adjusting time lag according to the variation of snowmelt and rainfall position can improve the simulation precision of the flood peak process. (iv) Along with temperature, the rainfall increases but cannot be completely monitored by limited gauge stations, which results in precision deterioration.     

Simulated impacts of irrigation on evapotranspiration in a strongly exploited region: a case study of the Haihe River basin,China

Irrigation is the major water supply for crop production in water‐limited regions. However, this important water component is usually neglected or simplified in hydrological modelling primarily because information concerning irrigation is notably difficult to collect. To assess real effects of irrigation on the simulation of evapotranspiration (ET) in water‐limited region, the Community Land Model version 4 was established over a typical semi‐humid agricultural basin in the northern China – the Haihe River basin. In the irrigated cropland, incorporating an irrigation scheme can enhance the simulated ET and improve the simulation of spatial variability of soil moisture content. We found that different configurations in the irrigation scheme do not cause significant differences in the simulated annual ET. However, simulated ET with simulated irrigation differs clearly from that with observed irrigation in mean annual magnitude, long‐term trend and spatial distribution. Once the irrigation scheme is well‐calibrated against observations, it reasonably reproduces the interannual variability of annual irrigation, when irrigation water management is relatively stable. More importantly, parameter calibration should be consistent with the configuration of the source of irrigation water. However, an irrigation scheme with a constant parameter value cannot capture the trend in the annual irrigation amount caused by abrupt changes in agricultural water management. Compared with different remotely sensed ET products, the enhancement in the simulated ET by irrigation is smaller than the differences among these products, and the trend in simulated ET with the observed irrigation cannot be captured correctly by the remotely sensed ET. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.