全球观测系统实地观测的内容和要求

全球性观测系统在检测，监测和预测地球系统的变化中发挥着越工重要的作用。地球系统的复杂性，多尺度性，非线性性，突变性，非平衡性等要求各种全球性观测系统之间必须加强联系与协调。评述了全球性观测系统联系与协调的发展趋势，并依据《全球性观测系统实地观测的内容和体系纲要》、介绍了全球性观测系统实地观测的内容和规范要求。     

印尼海啸地震的钻孔应力应变观测资料

钻孔应力-应变地震前兆观测台网，是全国地震前兆监测台网的一个组成部分。该手段由于美国板块边界观测（PBO）项目的影畸，正在日益受到人们的重视（邱泽华等，2002；邱泽华等，2004a；邱泽华等，2004）。钻孔应力-应变观测对象包括：体应变、分量应变、分量应力和差应变。目前登记在册并正常运行的钻孔应力一应变地震前兆监测台站共计45个，分布于14个省、自治区和直辖市。有的台站有多种观测项目，例如昌平台，作为钻孔应力-应变综合观测台，曾经有5～6种钻孔应力-应变观测项目，目前有体应变、压容分量应变和差应变三种观测。目前正常运行的观测项目共有49个。     

傍河地下水位监测断面的优化设计

为了对傍河地下水位监测断面进行优化设计,更好地掌握地下水位动态时空变化特征,以安徽省亳州市河水-地下水监测断面为例,分别采用克里金法和时间序列法,通过分析监测断面上9口地下水位观测井及河水位观测点在1982年1月—1998年12月的水位观测数据,对观测井空间布局、井数和观测频率进行优化。结果表明：空间布局优化后的观测井数量由原来的9减少到3,平均相邻井距为1 000 m,优化后的水位克里金估计标准误差平均值为0.019 2 m,误差波动范围较小;观测频率优化后由5日一测变为10日一测,能够满足观测精度要求。     

提高PHSJ-4型PH计观测质量的探讨

PHSJ-4型PH计是我局第一台高精确度的PH计,应用到实际观测过程中,遇到许多影响观测质量的具体问题。本文针对PHSJ-4型PH计使用过程中遇到的乱码、测值突跳、电极老化快、合理分辨率的确定、温度干扰因素的控制等问题展开分析,做了大量的条件实验,结合该仪器的工作原理以及PH值所遵循的化学原理,指出要提高和保障观测质量,观测时必须做到如下几点:调节观测参数时用指腹轻按,出现局部黑屏、乱码现象可采用关机后重新开机解决;电极一定要浸泡在KCL保护液中,观测完毕清洗电极后一定要用滤纸把残余的蒸馏水擦干后再授泡在KCL保护液中以免降低电极保护液的保护功效,延长电极的寿命;水样要达到室温时才能进行观测;合理分辨率应设置在0.01PH档。     

E-601型蒸发器与Φ20cm蒸发皿观测资料的相关分析

摘要：通过对肯斯瓦特水文站E-601型蒸发器与Φ20cm蒸发皿14年蒸发量观测资料的相关分析，得出了两种蒸发器(皿)的折算系数，为有效利用长序列Φ20cm蒸发皿资料提供了重要依据。     

差分GPS在水道观测上的应用

差分ＧＰＳ在水道观测上的应用周刚炎，邹家忠（长江水利委员会水文局）１前“吉长期以来，我国河道、水库的水下地形观测是采用经纬仪交会定位，配合超声测深仪的传统方法。这种方法需要大量的控制点，增设大量的标石和高标，而且受气候条件、通机条件的限制，精度低，速...     

泉州台印尼苏门答腊特大地震钻孔应变观测报告

泉州基准地震台1971年6月建成。台站位于福建省泉州市北郊清源山南麓的罗古山南坡，离海最近距离约7km，台址处在北东向长乐一诏安活动断裂带中段（见图1）。台基岩性为交代中粒二长花岗岩，岩石新鲜、致密、完整。此外，1979年在泉州市西郊白水营村建成地磁台，现搬迁至南安市洪濑镇重建。先后有测震、地磁、重力、形变、水氡、GPS等观测项目。现有全国Ⅰ类基本台的测震（数字化观测）、地磁观测项目，以及水氡、数字化钻孔应变和GPS观测项目。     

大坝观测孔有效铅垂空间的确定

导出了根据测斜数据确定观测孔内有效铅垂空间的几何作图方法,介绍了在作图法基础上产生的计算机编程思路,以及控制观测孔施工质量的数学依据。     

地球观测数据卫星分发系统发展综述

地球观测数据卫星分发系统(GEONETCast)借助通信卫星,把从地面站点、航空和航天平台获取的观测数据、产品传送给广大的用户。GEONETCast当前由CMACast,EUMETCast和GEONETCast Americas 3个区域系统组成,作为地球观测组织(GEO)提出的全球综合地球观测系统(GEOSS)的全球地球观测数据和信息卫星分发系统,旨在满足9个社会受益领域的用户需求。GEONETCast建立在现有区域系统之上,利用GEO的协调机制,共同确定GEONETCast系统的整体计划和要求。各区域系统在科研项目和业务建设的支持下,不断发展完善。未来要保障GEONET-Cast健康、良性和可持续的业务运行,还需要加强4个方面的工作:①区域系统之间的互相通信;②保持GEONETCast的开放性和动态性,发展更多的数据提供者提供地球观测数据;③发展更多的数据使用者;④数据政策。     

用于地质灾害监测预测的微震四维观测技术

地微震一般是微米级的自然连续振动，振动频率在10几赫以下；地微震观测技术，早已应用到工程勘察及地震安全性评价领域，并已列入相关规程。受观测、解释及成果应用水平的限制，以前的应用主要是定时定点一次性观测（在静噪条件下）,考察场地三维方向振动特性，提出构筑物抗震设计要求。由于该项技术良好的可 拓展性，20世纪80年代后期，日本利用定时定点的微震观测，推民场地地层构造、振动特性。20世纪90年代，偶见国外应用其进行一些监测工作的零星报道。地微震四维观测即空间三向振动特性随时间的变化，以自动长期连续观测系统有效监测滑坡、崩塌等地质灾害；因此，其观测的设备和技术方法须适应自动长期连续的要求。     

Strike Standard Deviation for Shallow-dipping Rock Fracture Sets

Summary The well-known problem that the observed strike of a shallow-dipping rock fracture can vary widely, even if one re-measures the strike in the same location, is dealt with in this paper. The overall purpose of the paper is to place the statistical estimation of the strike confidence interval for shallow-dipping rock fracture sets on a sound foundation. We have made series of strike measurements at each of various dips on a wooden laboratory “fracture” to allow estimation of strike standard deviation at all shallow dips. This is accurate for smooth rock and serves as a lower bound estimate for rock with a rougher surface. These estimates are used, along with two independent iterative statistical procedures, to re-estimate the dip direction confidence interval of an actual set of nineteen fractures. The dip direction confidence interval is more than three times as wide as the corresponding dip confidence interval. This will be made visible in our transformed confidence region plot for the mean pole.     

A homomorphic model for identifying abrupt abnormalities of landslide forerunners

A homomorphic model is presented for identifying the abnormalities of landslide forerunners from an observation time series. The model developed here is better than previous statistical models because it considers, in the evolution process of the landslide, material degradation or smoothing of the slip plane, groundwater level or pore water pressure fluctuations, and unexplained or random behavior. The identification of abnormalities is made in terms of the confidence interval [−qS, qS], where q is the confidence and S is the output error of the homomorphic model. The case study of the Saleshan landslide in Gansu, China, is presented to illustrate the capability and merit of the homomorphic model.     

基于Copula函数的入库洪水与坝址洪水关系研究

采用频率分析法计算入库设计洪水时,需要通过相关分析将坝址洪水系列插补得到对应的入库洪水系列。常用的线性回归法假设两者满足线性关系且入库洪水系列服从正态分布,可能与实际情况并不相符。引入Copula函数构建坝址洪水与入库洪水的联合概率分布和条件概率分布,计算给定坝址洪水时入库洪水的条件最可能值和置信区间,提出了一种基于Copula函数的入库洪水插补新方法。三峡水库的应用实例表明:线性回归法得到的入库洪水值在坝址洪水量级较大时明显偏小,甚至稀遇洪水时不在90%置信区间内。所提方法能较好地反映坝址洪水与入库洪水的内在关系,不仅可以计算入库洪水的各种点估计值,而且能够定量评价估计的不确定性。     

Series Expansion-Based Genetic Inversion of Wireline Logging Data

An evolutionary approach is applied to solve the nonlinear well logging inverse problem. In the framework of the proposed interval inversion method, nuclear, sonic, and laterolog resistivity data measured at an arbitrary depth interval are jointly inverted, where the depth variation of porosity, water saturation, and shale volume is expanded into series using Legendre polynomials as basis functions. In the interval inversion procedure, the series expansion coefficients are estimated by using an adaptive float-encoded genetic algorithm. Since the solution of the inverse problem using traditional linear optimization tools highly depends on the selection of the initial model, a heuristic search is necessary to reduce the initial model dependence of the interval inversion procedure. The genetic inversion strategy used in interval inversion seeks the global extreme of the objective function and provides an estimate of the vertical distribution of petrophysical parameters, even starting the inversion procedure from extremely high distances from the optimum. For a faster computational process, after a couple of thousand generations, the genetic algorithm is replaced by some linear optimization steps. The added advantage of using the Marquardt algorithm is the possibility to characterize the accuracy of the series expansion coefficients and derived petrophysical properties. A Hungarian oil field example demonstrates the feasibility and stability of the improved interval inversion method. As a significance, the genetic inversion method does not require prior knowledge or strong restrictions on the values of petrophysical properties and gives highly reliable estimation results practically independent of the initial model and core information.

     

General and local estimation of local average and their application in geotechnical parameter estimations

Two kinds of estimation variance functions for estimating a local average (LA) of a stationary (homogeneous) random field (RF) are derived. One is local estimation (LE) and the other is general estimation (GE) of LA. The former is for estimating LA at the observation location, and the latter is for obtaining LA at any arbitrary location within the RF. The geotechnical implications of these two estimations are that LE is for estimating LA of geotechnical parameters at the spot where the investigations are made, whereas GE is for estimating LA at any arbitrary location within the same layer. The behavior of the two estimation variance functions differs greatly, controlled by the number of observations (i.e. sample size) and the normalized layer thickness (layer thickness divided by autocorrelation distance of RF). Based on the derived estimation variance functions, methods for determining reliable characteristic values of geotechnical parameters and necessary sample size are proposed. The methods are based on the same framework as that of the traditional statistical theory, i.e. confidence interval of estimated parameters. However, the assumption of independently and identically distributed (i.i.d.) samples in the traditional statistical theory is replaced by the assumption of correlated samples from a stationary RF. The results obtained from the proposed methods for LE and GE differ from each other as well as from the traditional results, which has significant implications for geotechnical parameter estimation in geotechnical engineering practice.     

青藏铁路路基表面太阳总辐射和温度反演方法

通过对“青藏铁路乌丽垭口大桥段不同走向路基表面热状况观测试验”资料的分析,改进了已有的青藏铁路边坡表面上的太阳总辐射和表面温度反演方法,并利用中日合作“青藏高原能量水分循环试验”（GAME Tibet）沿青藏公路长时间序列地面观测资料,建立了地理位置和海拔高度与反演系数之间的统计关系,将该反演方法推广到青藏铁路全线。     

More accurate,calibrated bootstrap confidence intervals for estimating the correlation between two time series

Estimation of Pearson’s correlation coefficient between two time series, in the evaluation of the influences of one time-dependent variable on another, is an often used statistical method in climate sciences. Data properties common to climate time series, namely non-normal distributional shape, serial correlation, and small data sizes, call for advanced, robust methods to estimate accurate confidence intervals to support the correlation point estimate. Bootstrap confidence intervals are estimated in the Fortran 90 program PearsonT (Mudelsee, Math Geol 35(6):651–665, 2003), where the main intention is to obtain accurate confidence intervals for correlation coefficients between two time series by taking the serial dependence of the data-generating process into account. However, Monte Carlo experiments show that the coverage accuracy of the confidence intervals for smaller data sizes can be substantially improved. In the present paper, the existing program is adapted into a new version, called PearsonT3, by calibrating the confidence interval to increase the coverage accuracy. Calibration is a bootstrap resampling technique that performs a second bootstrap loop (it resamples from the bootstrap resamples). It offers, like the non-calibrated bootstrap confidence intervals, robustness against the data distribution. Pairwise moving block bootstrap resampling is used to preserve the serial dependence of both time series. The calibration is applied to standard error-based bootstrap Student’s $t$ confidence intervals. The performance of the calibrated confidence interval is examined with Monte Carlo simulations and compared with the performance of confidence intervals without calibration. The coverage accuracy is evidently better for the calibrated confidence intervals where the coverage error is acceptably small already (i.e., within a few percentage points) for data sizes as small as 20.     

Assessment of the amount of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) on the basis of perennial vessel counts

This article presents a method of assessment of the amount of polar bears on the basis of data on vessel counts. The results of 32 vessel transect counts in the southern part of the Kara Sea are used as the primary data. They are processed in an original program using separate extrapolation by sectors and summarizing of data of several different counts. In recent years, the calculated amount of bears in the studied region has varied from 3300 to 3100 individuals (3200, on average). The relative statistical error of estimations smoothly decreases from 8 to 7%. The confidence interval of the estimation at statistical error of 7% and probability level of 95% is 2700–3500 individuals.     

改进加权马尔科夫链模型在喀什地区承压含水层参数动态识别中的应用研究

承压含水层的估算对于地下水开发利用的合理规划十分重要。而承压含水层参数识别对于含水层水量参数估算至关重要。结合改进加权马尔科夫链模型,以喀什为研究实例,对该地区承压含水层参数进行动态识别,从置信区间分析结果可看出,喀什地区承压含水层参数的变幅为7.93 m^2/min,而承压含水层参数μ的变幅为0.048,从不同置信度下的变幅结果可看出,相比于传统模型,改进加权马尔科夫链模型提高了参数识别收敛效率和计算精度。计算结果的可靠性程度较高。研究成果对于喀什地区含水层水量估算具有重要的参考价值。     

统计权重矩阵法在雷达估测降水集成中的应用

Z～R关系法和6种雷达雨量计联合法反演的区域降水量与雨量计观测得到的降水场存在较大的误差,将这7种降水估测结果作为信息源,采用统计权重矩阵法对上述7种反演结果进行集成分析,提出了一种改进雷达估测降水的方法。结果表明:在被集成资料中,Z～R关系法估测的降雨场具有明显的偏低现象,精度最差,6种雷达雨量计联合法的估测精度明显优于Z～R关系法。通过统计权重矩阵集成后,精度比集成前所有方法均有明显提高,尤其是降水场分布形势和降水中心的强度都与雨量计场非常吻合。集成得到的降水空间分布场能够较真实地反映地面的降水情况,可以在估测区域降水量中进行业务试用。