Confidence levels for tsunami-inundation limits in northern Oregon inferred from a 10,000-year history of great earthquakes at the Cascadia subduction zone

To explore the local tsunami hazard from the Cascadia subduction zone we (1) evaluate geologically reasonable variability of the earthquake rupture process, (2) specify 25 deterministic earthquake sources, and (3) use resulting vertical coseismic deformations for simulation of tsunami inundation at Cannon Beach, Oregon. Maximum runup was 9–30 m (NAVD88) from earthquakes with slip of ~8–38 m and M _w ~8.3–9.4. Minimum subduction zone slip consistent with three tsunami deposits was 14–15 m. By assigning variable weights to the source scenarios using a logic tree, we derived percentile inundation lines that express the confidence level (percentage) that a Cascadia tsunami will not exceed the line. Ninety-nine percent of Cascadia tsunami variation is covered by runup ≤30 m and 90% ≤16 m with a “preferred” (highest weight) value of ~10 m. A hypothetical maximum-considered distant tsunami had runup of ~11 m, while the historical maximum was ~6.5 m.     

Great earthquakes of variable magnitude at the Cascadia subduction zone

Comparison of histories of great earthquakes and accompanying tsunamis at eight coastal sites suggests plate-boundary ruptures of varying length, implying great earthquakes of variable magnitude at the Cascadia subduction zone. Inference of rupture length relies on degree of overlap on radiocarbon age ranges for earthquakes and tsunamis, and relative amounts of coseismic subsidence and heights of tsunamis. Written records of a tsunami in Japan provide the most conclusive evidence for rupture of much of the plate boundary during the earthquake of 26 January 1700. Cascadia stratigraphic evidence dating from about 1600 cal yr B.P., similar to that for the 1700 earthquake, implies a similarly long rupture with substantial subsidence and a high tsunami. Correlations are consistent with other long ruptures about 1350 cal yr B.P., 2500 cal yr B.P., 3400 cal yr B.P., 3800 cal yr B.P., 4400 cal yr B.P., and 4900 cal yr B.P. A rupture about 700-1100 cal yr B.P. was limited to the northern and central parts of the subduction zone, and a northern rupture about 2900 cal yr B.P. may have been similarly limited. Times of probable short ruptures in southern Cascadia include about 1100 cal yr B.P., 1700 cal yr B.P., 3200 cal yr B.P., 4200 cal yr B.P., 4600 cal yr B.P., and 4700 cal yr B.P. Rupture patterns suggest that the plate boundary in northern Cascadia usually breaks in long ruptures during the greatest earthquakes. Ruptures in southernmost Cascadia vary in length and recurrence intervals more than ruptures in northern Cascadia.     

The hazard potential of the western segment of the Makran subduction zone, northern Arabian Sea

Evaluating the hazard potential of the Makran subduction zone requires understanding the previous records of the large earthquakes and tsunamis. We address this problem by searching for earthquake and tectonic proxies along the Makran Coast and linking those observations with the available constraints on historical seismicity and the tell-tale characteristics of sea floor morphology. The earthquake of Mw 8.1 of 1945 and the consequent tsunami that originated on the eastern part of the Makran are the only historically known hazardous events in this region. The seismic status of the western part of the subduction zone outside the rupture area of the 1945 earthquake remains an enigma. The near-shore shallow stratigraphy of the central part of Makran near Chabahar shows evidence of seismically induced liquefaction that we attribute to the distant effects of the 1945 earthquake. The coastal sites further westward around Jask are remarkable for the absence of liquefaction features, at least at the shallow level. Although a negative evidence, this possibly implies that the western part of Makran Coast region may not have been impacted by near-field large earthquakes in the recent past??a fact also supported by the analysis of historical data. On the other hand, the elevated marine terraces on the western Makran and their uplift rates are indicative of comparable degree of long-term tectonic activity, at least around Chabahar. The offshore data suggest occurrences of recently active submarine slumps on the eastern part of the Makran, reflective of shaking events, owing to the great 1945 earthquake. The ocean floor morphologic features on the western segment, on the contrary, are much subdued and the prograding delta lobes on the shelf edge also remain intact. The coast on the western Makran, in general, shows indications of progradation and uplift. The various lines of evidence thus suggest that although the western segment is potentially seismogenic, large earthquakes have not occurred there in the recent past, at least during the last 600?years. The recurrence period of earthquakes may range up to 1,000?years or more, an assessment based on the age of the youngest dated coastal ridge. The long elapsed time points to the fact that the western segment may have accumulated sufficient slip to produce a major earthquake.     

Expected tsunami amplitudes and currents along the North American coast for Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes

Tsunamis are numerically modeled using the nonlinear shallow-water equations for three hypothetical Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes. Maximum zero-to-peak tsunami amplitudes and currents are tabulated for 131 sites along the North American coast. Earthquake source parameters are chosen to satisfy known subduction zone configuration and thermal constraints. These source parameters are used as input to compute vertical sea-floor displacement. The three earthquakes modeled are moment magnitude 8.8, 8.5, and 7.8. Maximum zero-to-peak tsunami amplitude for theMw = 8.8 earthquake is near 6 m normal to the fault break and maximum current is near 3.5 m/s. Maximum amplitudes decrease by about one-half north and south of the fault break in the source region. Tsunami amplitudes vary along the Alaskan coast from less than 0.5 to 1.6 m. The modeled amplitudes for theMw = 8.8 quake decrease to less than 0.4 m south of Point Conception, CA. TheMw = 7.8 earthquake generates a tsunami with a maximum amplitude of less than 1 m normal to the source. North and south of the fault break the maximum amplitude again decreases by about one-half. In all the models, amplitudes and currents arc less than one-sixth of the outer coast value within Puget Sound.     

Tsunami risk for Western Canada and numerical modelling of the Cascadia fault tsunami

The paper deals with the analysis of tsunami risks for Western Canada and the numerical modelling of a potential tsunami which could affect the region and generate significant damage to the western Canadian coastline. Following a review of the seismic risk and historical tsunamis which occurred along the western Canadian coastline, the authors concluded that this region is highly vulnerable should a major tsunami occur. Consequently, the authors conducted a study on the numerical modelling of a possible tsunami generated by movement along the Cascadia fault, which is located offshore British Columbia. The results of the model outline the significance and extent of the coastal flooding risk associated with such a rare, but destructive phenomenon. The potential for inundation of the low-lying areas around the coastline of Vancouver Island and in and around the City of Vancouver was found to be high. A number of recommendations and conclusions focusing on the results of the numerical simulation are included.     

The Late Cenozoic geodynamic evolution of the central segment of the Andean subduction zone

The presented model of the Late Cenozoic geodynamic evolution of the central Andes and the complex tectonic, geological, and geophysical model of the Earth’s crust and upper mantle along the Central Andean Transect, which crosses the Andean subduction zone along 21°S, are based on the integration of voluminous and diverse data. The onset of the recent evolution of the central Andes is dated at the late Oligocene (27 Ma ago), when the local fluid-induced rheological attenuation of the continental lithosphere occurred far back of the subduction zone. Tectonic deformation started to develop in thick-skinned style above the attenuated domain in the upper mantle and then in the Earth’s crust, creating the bivergent system of the present-day Eastern Cordillera. The destruction of the continental lithosphere is correlated with ore mineralization in the Bolivian tin belt, which presumably started at 16° S and spread to the north and to the south. Approximately 19 Ma ago, the gently dipping Subandean Thrust Fault was formed beneath the Eastern Cordillera, along which the South American Platform began to thrust under the Andes with rapid thickening of the crust in the eastern Andean Orogen owing to its doubling. The style of deformation in the upper crust above the Subandean Thrust Fault changed from thick- to thin-skinned, and the deformation front migrated to the east inland, forming the Subandean system of folds and thrust faults verging largely eastward. The thickening of the crust was accompanied by flows at the lower and/or middle crustal levels, delamination, and collapse of fragments of the lower crust and lithospheric mantle beneath the Eastern Cordillera and Altiplano-Puna Plateau. As the thickness of the middle and lower crustal layers reached a critical thickness about 10 Ma ago, the viscoplastic flow in the meridional direction became more intense. Extension of the upper brittle crust was realized mainly in gliding and rotation of blocks along a rhombic fault system. Some blocks sank, creating sedimentary basins. The rate of southward migration estimated from the age of these basins is 26 km/Ma. Tectonic deformation was accompanied by diverse magmatic activity (ignimbrite complexes, basaltic flows, shoshonitic volcanism, etc.) within the tract from the Western Cordillera to the western edge of the Eastern Cordillera 27–5 Ma ago with a peak at 7 Ma; after this, it began to recede westward; by 5 Ma ago, the magmatic activity reached only the western part of the Altiplano-Puna Plateau, and it has been concentrated in the volcanic arc of the Western Cordillera during the last 2 Ma.     

中美洲俯冲带南段上覆板块沉积物化学组分及其地质意义

在剥蚀型汇聚板块边缘,俯冲输入板块剥蚀上覆板块并将剥蚀物质带入俯冲隧道,随后,这些剥蚀物质与俯冲板块物质一同参与了俯冲带浅部与深部地幔的地球化学循环。构造地质学和地球物理研究显示中美洲俯冲带南段是典型的俯冲剥蚀型汇聚板块边缘,这为研究上覆板块俯冲剥蚀物质是否参与俯冲带物质循环过程提供了天然的实验室。由于目前仍然缺乏对该俯冲剥蚀机制的地球化学制约,综合大洋钻探计划(IODP) 344航次对中美洲俯冲带南部哥斯达黎加西部的俯冲板块和上覆板块开展了钻探工作,并获取了系统的岩芯样品。本文对IODP344航次取自上覆板块中陆坡和上陆坡的U1380和U1413站位中沉积物中的粗碎屑层位样品,开展了系统的主、微量元素与Sr-Nd-Pb-Hf同位素地球化学研究。这些沉积物粗碎屑层位组分与加勒比大火成岩省基底相似,指示它们可能来自加勒比大火成岩省基底在弧前出露的区域,可以代表上覆板块基底被俯冲剥蚀的物质组成。研究进一步探讨了晚中新世中美洲俯冲带南部大陆弧火山岩的成因,并指出上覆板块底部被剥蚀物质参与了中美洲俯冲带南部大陆弧火山岩岩浆过程,这为中美洲俯冲带南部存在俯冲剥蚀过程提供了直接的地质学证据。     

Insights from trace element geochemistry as to the roles of subduction zone geometry and subduction input on the chemistry of arc magmas

Subduction zones of continental, transitional, and oceanic settings, relative to the nature of the overriding plate, are compared in terms of trace element compositions of mafic to intermediate arc rocks, in order to evaluate the relationship between subduction parameters and the presence of subduction fluids. The continental Chilean Southern Volcanic Zone (SVZ) and the transitional to oceanic Central American Volcanic Arc (CAVA) show increasing degrees of melting with increasing involvement of slab fluids, as is typical for hydrous flux melting beneath arc volcanoes. At the SVZ, the central segment with the thinnest continental crust/lithosphere erupted the highest-degree melts from the most depleted sources, similar to the oceanic-like Nicaraguan segment of the CAVA. The northern part of the SVZ, located on the thickest continental crust/lithosphere, exhibits features more similar to Costa Rica situated on the Caribbean Large Igneous Province, with lower degrees of melting from more enriched source materials. The composition of the slab fluids is characteristic for each arc system, with a particularly pronounced enrichment in Pb at the SVZ and in Ba at the CAVA. A direct compositional relationship between the arc rocks and the corresponding marine sediments that are subducted at the trenches clearly shows that the compositional signature of the lavas erupted in the different arcs carries an inherited signal from the subducted sediments.     

鲜水河断裂带色拉哈段中谷村一带的最新地表破裂讨论

鲜水河断裂带色拉哈段是2014年康定M_S6.3地震的发震断裂段,其最新一次地表破裂事件(1725年康定7级地震)的离逝时间较长,是最可能发生7级以上地表破裂型大震的危险地段之一。获得色拉哈段最新地震地表破裂的展布范围对确定断裂带的地震活动历史、评估断裂带的未来地震危险性以及防震减灾具有重要意义。然而,迄今色拉哈段最新地表破裂的北西端位置仍存有较大争议。对此,在以往资料认为没有同震地表破裂的中谷村一带开挖了探槽组,获得了这一带的破裂历史,其最新一次事件(E6)的限定年代为A.D.746±51之后。综合探槽剖面证据和附近的断错地貌特征以及历史地震资料,探槽揭露的最新事件E6可能对应1725年康定7级地震,色拉哈段的地表破裂北西端至少已延伸到中谷村一带。     

A Rhizocarpon geographicum growth curve for the Cascade Range of Washington and northern Oregon, usa

Lichen thallus measurements from 22 surfaces of known age on Mount Baker, Mount Hood, and Mount Rainier are used to construct a regional Rhizocarpon geographicum growth curve for the Cascade Range of Washington and northern Oregon. Growth rates determined by measuring the largest thallus diameters on the same surfaces at Mount Rainier in 1976 and 2002 are used for comparison with lichenometric data from Mount Baker and Mount Hood. Similar lichen thallus diameter vs age relationships identified in the data from the three mountains suggest the presence of uniform growth rates over the 400-km range. A regional growth curve developed during our study shows three growth phases of successively slower growth: a rapid phase from 8 to 20 yr, a linear phase from 20 to 145 yr, and a slow phase of unknown duration beyond ca. 145 yr. Uncertainty in lichen growth rates beyond 145 yr limits projection of the curve beyond that age; however, the age range of the constrained growth curve covers an important period of recent climate variability. When applied in appropriate settings, our growth curve can be used to determine numeric ages to ±10 yr for surfaces between 20 and 145 years old in areas where other techniques are not applicable or do not provide unique or well-constrained ages.     

郯庐断裂带北段构造特征及构造演化序列

根据大量野外地质调查和盆地地震资料分析,认为郯庐断裂北段在中-新生代发生多期不同性质的活动,形成各具特色的构造变形现象。密山县知一镇敦密断裂韧性剪切带具有左旋走滑特征,其中黑云母~(40)Ar/~(36)Ar-~(39)Ar/~(36)Ar等时线年龄为161±3Ma,是郯庐断裂带被利用发生第二期左旋走滑运动并向北扩展到中国东北-俄罗斯远东地区的产物。四平市叶赫乡佳伊断裂带中负花状断裂形成于早白垩世早中期,是郯庐断裂北段在早白垩世遭受左旋走滑-拉张作用的典型代表。四平市石岭镇佳伊断裂大型走滑-逆冲断褶带、桦甸县敦密断裂"逆地堑"、沈阳-哈尔滨逆冲断裂形成于晚白垩世嫩江运动-晚白垩世末期,这一时期脆性右旋走滑-逆冲事件规模大,影响范围广,导致整个郯庐断裂北段遭受到强烈改造。佳伊断裂带和敦密断裂带中古近纪盆地在横剖面上呈不对称地堑,并且不对称地堑沿断裂带走向发生断、超方向左右变位,是郯庐断裂带北段在古近纪时受右旋走滑、伸展双重机制控制的产物。根据郯庐断裂带北段中-新生代不同地质时期变形特征,建立了郯庐断裂北段构造演化序列。即郯庐断裂北段构造演化分为左旋韧性剪切(J_2末期)、左旋张扭(K_1早中期)、右旋压扭(K_2晚期-末期)、右旋走滑断陷(E)和构造反转(E_3末期)五个阶段。其演化历史主要受控于环太平洋构造域的构造作用。     

Geochemical relation between gas hydrates and water venting in the seismic blanking zone on the northern Cascadia continental margin offshore Vancouver Island, Canada

The isotopic composition (δD and δ¹⁸O) and chloride concentration (Cl⁻) of pore waters from the northern Cascadia continental margin offshore Vancouver Island were measured to characterize the relations between the water flow regime and the distribution, formation and dissociation of gas hydrates. The δD values of pore waters in gas hydrate-bearing sediments are slightly higher ( 1‰) than those of seawater as the result of gas hydrate dissociation during core recovery and handling. Within the seismic blanking zone, the δD values were slightly lower (− 1‰) than values measured from sites outside the blanking area (0‰). We attribute these differences to 1) distillation of D-rich water during hydrate formation in the center of the blanking zone and 2) limited migration of pore water between inside and outside of the blanking zone due to different fluid fluxes. In contrast, the δ¹⁸O values and Cl⁻ concentrations do not show significant spatial variation due to decreased isotopic fractionation of oxygen and small fraction of chloride relative to hydrogen isotope during gas hydrate formation. The δD value of pore water, therefore, appears to be a sensitive indicator of gas hydrate occurrence. We estimate that gas hydrate occupied at least 2.0 to 6.3% of sediment pore space using δD distribution in this area.     

Geochemistry of southern Pagan Island lavas,Mariana arc: the role of subduction zone processes

New major and trace element abundances, and Pb, Sr, and Nd isotopic ratios of Quaternary lavas from two adjacent volcanoes (South Pagan and the Central Volcanic Region, or CVR) located on Pagan Island allow us to investigate the mantle source (i.e., slab components) and melting dynamics within the Mariana intra-oceanic arc. Geologic mapping reveals a pre-caldera (780–9.4 ka) and post-caldera (<9.4 ka) eruptive stage for South Pagan, whereas the eruptive history of the older CVR is poorly constrained. Crystal fractionation and magma mixing were important crustal processes for lavas from both volcanoes. Geochemical and isotopic variations indicate that South Pagan and CVR lavas, and lavas from the northern volcano on the island, Mt. Pagan, originated from compositionally distinct parental magmas due to variations in slab contributions (sediment and aqueous fluid) to the mantle wedge and the extent of mantle partial melting. A mixing model based on Pb and Nd isotopic ratios suggests that the average amount of sediment in the source of CVR (~2.1%) and South Pagan (~1.8%) lavas is slightly higher than Mt. Pagan (~1.4%) lavas. These estimates span the range of sediment-poor Guguan (~1.3%) and sediment-rich Agrigan (~2.0%) lavas for the Mariana arc. Melt modeling demonstrates that the saucer-shaped normalized rare earth element (REE) patterns observed in Pagan lavas can arise from partial melting of a mixed source of depleted mantle and enriched sediment, and do not require amphibole interaction or fractionation to depress the middle REE abundances of the lavas. The modeled degree of mantle partial melting for Agrigan (2–5%), Pagan (3–7%), and Guguan (9–15%) lavas correlates with indicators of fluid addition (e.g., Ba/Th). This relationship suggests that the fluid flux to the mantle wedge is the dominant control on the extent of partial melting beneath Mariana arc volcanoes. A decrease in the amount of fluid addition (lower Ba/Th) and extent of melting (higher Sm/Yb), and an increase in the sediment contribution (higher Th/Nb, La/Sm, and Pb isotopic ratios) from Mt. Pagan to South Pagan could reflect systematic cross-arc or irregular along-arc melting variations. These observations indicate that the length scale of compositional heterogeneity in the mantle wedge beneath Mariana arc volcanoes is small (~10 km).     

Structure and seismicity of the Aegean subduction zone

Tomographic results show the presence of a high-velocity anomaly dipping north beneath the Aegean Sea (Hellenic arc), down to a depth of at least 600 km. This anomaly is interpreted as the image of the subducting lithosphere of the African plate. No deep seismicity, however, is associated with this downgoing slab, although this would be expected on the basis of the age of the downbending lithosphere (approximately 100 Myr) and the inferred duration of the present ongoing episode of subduction. Using a thermo-mechanical model for the subduction zone we find that the non-stationary input of the subduction zone-both in convergence rate and in thermal structure of the downgoing lithosphere - adequately accounts for both the presence of a velocity anomaly associated with a slab and the absence of deep seismicity. The non-stationarity follows from the large-scale tectonic setting of the Eastern Mediterranean basin.     

Assessment of flexural analysis applied to the Sumatra-Java subduction zone

Indian Ocean subduction zone is one of the most active plate margins of the globe as evident from its vast record of great magnitude earthquake and tsunami events. We use Bouguer admittance (Morlet isostatic response function) in Sumatra-Java subduction zones comprising both the subduction and over-riding plates to determine the lithospheric mechanical strength variations. We determine effective elastic thickness (T _e ) for five oceanic windows (size 990 × 990 km²) by analyzing the admittance using Bouguer gravity and bathymetry data. The results show bimodal T _e values < 20 km for Sumatra and 20−40 km for Java. The lower bimodal values obtained for Sumatra appears to correlate well with the zones of historical seismicity. This is in sharp contrast with Java subduction zone, which shows higher T _e values (20–40 km) and apparently associated with low magnitude earthquakes. We suggest a strong and wide interseismic coupling for Sumatra between the subducting and over-riding plates, and deeper mantle contributing to low strength, shallow focus — high magnitude seismicity and vice versa for Java, leading to their seismogenic zonation.     

俯冲带脱碳和固碳作用过程

俯冲带作为联系地表和地球深部系统的纽带,不仅是将地表碳带入地球深部的主要通道,也是地表物质和地球深部物质发生交换的重要场所.俯冲作用可以将地表碳以有机碳或无机碳酸盐矿物等形式带入地球深部,再通过火山作用或去气作用返回到地表系统.俯冲带深部碳循环控制着地表碳通量变化,对于研究全球气候变化和地球宜居环境具有重要意义.本文结...     

Petrology of amphibolite-facies mafic and ultramafic rocks from the Catalina Schist, southern California: metasomatism and migmatization in a subduction zone metamorphic setting

Abstract The Catalina Schist of southern California is a subduction zone metamorphic terrane. It consists of three tectonic units of amphibolite-, high- P greenschist- and blueschist-facies rocks that are structurally juxtaposed across faults, forming an apparent inverted metamorphic gradient. Migmatitic and non-migmatitic metabasite blocks surrounded by a meta-ultramafic matrix comprise the upper part of the Catalina amphibolite unit. Fluid-rock interaction at high- P , high- T conditions caused partial melting of migmatitic blocks, metasomatic exchange between metabasite blocks and ultramafic rocks, infiltration of silica into ultramafic rocks, and loss of an albitic component from nonmigmatitic, clinopyroxene-bearing metabasite blocks.
Partial melting took place at an estimated P =˜8–11 kbar and T =˜640–750°C at high H₂O activity. The melting reaction probably involved plagioclase + quartz. Trondhjemitic melts were produced and are preserved as leucocratic regions in migmatitic blocks and as pegmatitic dikes that cut ultramafic rocks.
The metasomatic and melting processes reflected in these rocks could be analogous to those proposed for fluid and melt transfer of components from a subducting slab to the mantle wedge. Aqueous fluids rather than melts seem to have accomplished the bulk of mass transfer within the mafic and ultramafic complex.