Effects of triggering mechanism on snow avalanche slope angles and slab depths from field data

Natural Hazards - Field data from snow avalanche fracture lines for slope angle and slab depth (measured perpendicular to the weak layer) were analyzed for different triggering mechanisms. For...     

Tomographic evidence for a slab tear induced by fossil ridge subduction at Manila Trench,South China Sea

A tomographic travel-time inversion has been applied to trace the subducted slab of the South China Sea (SCS) beneath the Manila Trench. The dataset, taken from the International Seismological Centre (1960–2008), is composed of 13,087 P-wave arrival times from 1401 regional earthquakes and 8834 from 1350 teleseismic events. The results image the different morphology of the subducted SCS slab as a high-velocity zone. The subducting angle of the slab varies along the trench: at 16° N and 16.5° N, the slab dips at a low angle (24° ~ 32°) for 20–250 km depth and at a moderate angle (50°) for ~250–400 km depth. At 17° N, the slab dips at a low angle (32°) to near 400 km depth, and at 17.5° N and 18° N the slabs are near vertical from 70 ~ 700 km depth, while at 20° N the high-velocity anomalies exhibit features from horizontal abruptly to near vertical, extending to 500 km depth. The dramatic steepening of the slab between 17° N and 17.5° N may indicate a slab tear, which is coincident with the axis of a fossil ridge within the SCS slab at around 17° N. In addition, low-velocity zones in the three profiles above 300 km depth may represent the formation of the slab window, induced by ridge subduction and slab tear, initiating upward mantle flow and resulting in the partial melting of the edge of the slab. The slab tear could explain the volcanic gap and geochemical difference between the extinct Miocene and Quaternary volcanoes in the Luzon Arc, the much higher heat flow around the fossil ridge, and the distribution of most of the adakites and the related porphyry Cu-Au deposits in the Luzon area. Based on the geometry and morphology of the subducted slab and certain assumptions, we calculate the initial time of ridge subduction, which implies that ridge subduction and slab tear possibly started at ~8 Ma.     

An analysis of the supply process of loose materials to mountainous rivers and gullies as a result of dry debris avalanches

A dry debris avalanche will produce different volumes of colluviums or depositions (loose materials), which can have a significant impact on mountainous rivers or gullies. The loose material supply process caused by a debris avalanche is an important issue for understanding secondary disasters that form via the coupling of water flow and loose materials. Two flumes were designed for laboratory tests of the loose materials supply process to rivers/gullies, and the related impact factors were analyzed. Experimental results show that the supply of loose materials is a continuous process that directly relates to the avalanche’s mass movement processes. The sliding masses with smaller particle sizes are more sensitive to the flume slope and exhibited a longer supply time. The time-consuming for the debris avalanche travel in the flume decreased with the increasing particle size (such as flume B, time-consuming is decreased 0.2 s when the particle size increased from <1.0 to 20–60 mm), landslide volume and flume slope (flume A, consuming 1.6–2.1 s when flume slope is 29° decreased to consuming 1.3–1.5 s when flume slope is 41°), which means the increasing mobility of loose materials. The total supply time increased with the increasing landslide volume or decreasing particle size and flume slope. An empirical model for the process is presented based on numerous laboratory tests and numerical simulations, which can successfully describe the supply process for loose materials to a river/gully. The supply process of loose materials to mountainous gully from a dry debris avalanche is controlled by the material compositions of sliding masses, topographical conditions, landslide volume and bed friction, where large-volume debris avalanches that occur in mountainous river regions are more likely to obstruct the river flow and form a landslide-dammed lake.     

Data-driven mapping of avalanche release areas: a case study in South Tyrol, Italy

Avalanche hazard and risk mapping is of utmost importance in mountain areas in Europe and elsewhere. Advanced methods have been developed to describe several aspects of avalanche hazard assessment, such as the dynamics of snow avalanches or the intensity of snowfall to assume as a reference meteorological forcing. However, relatively little research has been conducted on the identification of potential avalanche release areas. In this paper, we present a probabilistic assessment of potential avalanche release areas in the Italian Autonomous Province of Bolzano, eastern Alps, using the Weights of Evidence and Logistic Regression methods with commonly available GIS datasets. We show that a data-driven statistical model performs better than simple, although widely adopted, screening criteria that were proposed in the past, although the complexity of observed release areas is only partly captured by the model. In the best case, the model enables predicting about 70 % of avalanches in the 20 % of area classified at highest hazard. Based on our results, we suggest that probabilistic identification of potential release areas could provide a useful aid in the screening of sites for subsequent, more detailed hazard assessment.     

Characteristics of wet-snow avalanche activity: 20 years of observations from a high alpine valley (Dischma,Switzerland)

The occurrence of wet-snow avalanches is, in general, poorly understood. For 20 years (winters of 1975–1976 to 1994–1995), the avalanche activity has been observed in the Dischma valley near Davos (Eastern Swiss Alps). The study area comprises a large starting zone of north-easterly aspect (2,300 m a.s.l.) with several avalanche paths. We have analyzed the occurrence data in combination with meteorological and snowpack data collected at an elevation of 2,090 m a.s.l. During the 20-year observation period, almost 800 wet-snow avalanches were observed, about 4.5 times more loose snow avalanches than slab avalanches. Considering both types of avalanches jointly, snow depth, precipitation and air temperature showed the highest correlation with avalanche activity. Most loose snow avalanches occurred when air temperature was high and/or after a precipitation period. Slab avalanches occurrence was primarily related to warm air temperatures and snowpack properties such as the isothermal state and the existence of capillary barriers. Radiation did not show up as a significant variable. The results suggest that in a transitional snow climate wet-snow avalanches are, as dry snow avalanches, often related to precipitation events, and that wet slab instability strongly depends on snowpack properties in relation to warming of the snowpack and melt water production.     

Rock slope response to strong earthquake shaking

The 2010–2011 Canterbury earthquakes triggered many mass movements in the Port Hills including rockfalls, debris avalanches, slides and slumps, and associated cliff-top cracking. The most abundant mass movements with the highest risk to people and buildings were rockfalls and debris avalanches sourced from up to 100 m high cliffs inclined at angles >65°. Cliffs lower than 10 m in height generally remained stable during the strong shaking, with only isolated release of a few individual boulders. We used site-specific data to investigate the factors that controlled the response of the cliffs to the main earthquakes of the Canterbury sequence, adopting two-dimensional finite element seismic site response and stability modeling that was calibrated using the field observations and measurements. Observations from the assessed cliffs in response to the earthquakes show the taller cliffs experienced larger amounts of permanent cliff-top displacement and produced larger volumes of debris than the smaller cliffs. Results indicated a mean K_MAX amplification ratio for all sites under study of 1.6 (range of 1.1–3.8). Field data and numerical modeling results, however, show that amplification of shaking does not necessarily increase linearly with increasing cliff height. Instead, our results show that accelerations are amplified mainly due to the impedance contrasts between the geological materials, corresponding to where strong differences in rock mass shear wave velocity exist. The resulting acceleration contrasts and rock mass strength control cliff stability. However, the amount of permanent slope displacement and volume of debris leaving the cliffs varied between the sites, due to site-specific geometry and rock mass strength.     

Topographical features of rainfall-triggered landslides in Mon State,Myanmar, August 2019: spatial distribution heterogeneity and uncommon large relative heights

Continuous 5-day (August 4–9, 2019) torrential rainfall in the monsoon season triggered more than 90 landslides on northwest-southeast extended mountain range of Mon State, Myanmar. In this study, remote sensing images, DEM, and limited fieldworks were used to create the landslide inventory. The topography features of these landslides are analyzed via ArcGIS. The largest one occurred on 9 August 2019 and caused 75 deaths and 27 buildings were damaged. This landslide occurred on gentle topography (slope angle, 23°) with long run-out, in which the angle of reach was relatively low (10°). The volume was 111,878 m³ was mainly composed of weathered granite and red soil and the sliding depth was approximately 7.5 m. Topographic characteristics including the relative slope height, angle of reach, and slope angle of source area of 35 landslides with areas?>?4000 m² were analyzed. The spatial distribution characteristics and topographic features of the 35 landslides below are distinguished: (1) the concentration of most of landslides on southwest-facing slopes showing the heterogeneous spatial distribution of landslide; (2) an uncommon landslide distribution in which more than half of landslide originates from upper slope; (3) the range of the angle of the source area (17°–38°) compatible with the internal friction angle of soils in tropical regions (17°–33°); and (4) the tangent of the angle of reach is generally smaller than 0.5 (angle of reach?<?27°) shows a relative high mobility and the relation between landslide mobility and the slope angle of the landslide source area is similar to the one of earthquake-triggered landslides, even though the triggering mechanism, landslide type, and landslide volume are dramatically different.

     

Recent extreme slope failures in glacial environments: effects of thermal perturbation

This paper describes recent exceptional slope failures in high-mountain, glacial environments: the 2002 Kolka–Karmadon rock–ice avalanche in the Caucasus, a series of ice–rock avalanches on Iliamna Volcano, Alaska, the 2005 Mt. Steller rock–ice avalanche in Alaska, and ice and rock avalanches at Monte Rosa, Italy in 2005 and 2007. Deposit volumes range from 10⁶ to 10⁸ m³ and include rock, ice and snow. Here we focus on thermal aspects of these failures reflecting the involvement of glacier ice and permafrost at all sites, suggesting that thermal perturbations likely contributed to the slope failures. We use surface and troposphere air temperatures, near-surface rock temperatures, satellite thermal data, and recent 2D and 3D thermal modeling studies to document thermal conditions at the landslide sites. We distinguish between thermal perturbations of volcanic-geothermal and climatic origin, and thermal perturbations related to glacier–permafrost interaction. The data and analysis support the view that recent, current and future climatic change increases the likelihood of large slope failures in steep glacierized and permafrost terrain. However, some important aspects of these settings such as the geology and tectonic environment remain poorly understood, making the identification of future sites of large slope instabilities difficult. In view of the potentially large natural disasters that can be caused by such slope failures, improved data and understanding are needed.     

HP–UHP metamorphism as an indicator of slab dip variations in the Alpine arc

HP/UHP and LT metamorphic units that commonly occur in the inner parts of mountain belts result from the subduction of continental and oceanic material, most often exhumed prior to continental collision. The prograde pressure–temperature history of HP–UHP rocks strongly depends on the convergence rate and on the subduction zone geometry. The maximum pressure recorded provides a proxy for the depth of shearing off and stacking of HP metamorphic nappes. A 2-D thermal model of continental subduction at lithospheric scale is used to compute the length and pressure peak of detached HP metamorphic units as a function of the slab dip angle and the convergence rate. Model results are applied to the metamorphic nappe pile of the inner Alps. A mean convergence rate of 1 cm/year during the subduction of the Briançonnais terrane is indicated by the paleogeographic reconstructions between 46 and 38 Ma. On this basis, the available petrological data and lengths of metamorphic units are used to compute the variations of the slab dip angle. The slab dip angle is shown to increase, from the northeast to the southwest, along the Alpine arc with estimated values of 20° for Suretta, 30–45° for Monte Rosa and Gran Paradiso, and 60° for Dora Maira. From Eocene to Oligocene times, the increase in slab dip angle is controlled by changes of buoyancy, due to the spatial configuration of the Valaisan trough and the incoming of crustal material within the subduction zone.     

Activity and distribution of geohazards induced by the Lushan earthquake,April 20, 2013

An Ms7.0 earthquake, focal depth 13 km, struck Lushan on April 20, 2013, caused 196 deaths and 21 missing, 13,484 injuries, and affected more than two million people. A field investigation was taken immediately after the quake, and the induced hazards were analyzed in comparison with the Wenchuan earthquake. We have identified 1,460 landslides and avalanches and four dammed lakes, which were generally small and concentrated on high elevation. Avalanches and rockfalls developed in cliffs and steep slopes of hard rocks, including Jinjixia of Baosheng Town and Dayanxia of Shuangshi Town, Lushan, and the K317 section the Xiaoguanzi section north to Lingguan Town along the provincial highway S210. Landslides were relatively less, mainly in moderate and small scales, developing in sandstone, shale, and loose colluviums. Only one single large landslide was observed to turn into debris slide-flow. Dammed lakes were formed by avalanches and landslides, all in small size and of low danger degree. The earthquake-induced hazards distributed in belt on the hanging wall along the faults, and their major controlling factors include tectonics, lithology, structure surface, and landform. More than 99 % landslides were within 30 km to the epicenter, and 678 within 10 km, accounting for 46 % of the total; about 50 % landslides were distributed on slopes between 35° and 55°, and 11 % on slope exceeding 75°; 60 % on slopes at the altitudes between 1,000 and 1,500 m, 77 % on slopes between 900 and 1,500 m; and 24 and 62 % in hard rocks and section between hard and soft rocks, respectively. Compared with the case of Wenchuan earthquake, both the number and extension of landslides and avalanches in Lushan earthquake-affected area are much smaller, only 5.53 % in number and 0.57 % in area. The earthquake has increased the instability of slope and potentiality of landslide and debris flow. Accordingly, the active period is expected to be relatively short comparing with that in Wenchuan earthquake-hit area. However, the insidious and concealed hazards bring difficulty for risk investigation.     

Logistic models as a forecasting tool for snow avalanches in a cold maritime climate: northern Gaspésie,Québec,Canada

Snow avalanches are a major natural hazard for road users and infrastructure in northern Gaspésie. Over the past 11 years, the occurrence of nearly 500 snow avalanches on the two major roads servicing the area was reported. No management program is currently operational. In this study, we analyze the weather patterns promoting snow avalanche initiation and use logistic regression (LR) to calculate the probability of avalanche occurrence on a daily basis. We then test the best LR models over the 2012–2013 season in an operational forecasting perspective: Each day, the probability of occurrence (0–100%) determined by the model was classified into five classes avalanche danger scale. Our results show that avalanche occurrence along the coast is best predicted by 2 days of accrued snowfall [in water equivalent (WE)], daily rainfall, and wind speed. In the valley, the most significant predictive variables are 3 days of accrued snowfall (WE), daily rainfall, and the preceding 2 days of thermal amplitude. The large scree slopes located along the coast and exposed to strong winds tend to be more reactive to direct snow accumulation than the inner-valley slopes. Therefore, the probability of avalanche occurrence increases rapidly during a snowfall. The slopes located in the valley are less responsive to snow loading. The LR models developed prove to be an efficient tool to forecast days with high levels of snow avalanche activity. Finally, we discuss how road maintenance managers can use this forecasting tool to improve decision making and risk rendering on a daily basis.     

梅里雪山1991年和2019年雪崩事件重建及影响因素分析北大核心CSCD

梅里雪山雪崩多发,但缺乏系统监测和研究。1991年1月3日梅里雪山发生了造成中日联合登山队17名队员遇难的巨大雪崩事件。2019年安装在明永冰川末端附近的物候相机拍摄到临近梅里雪山明永冰川的一次雪崩事件。两次事件类型不同,这对我们进行雪崩预测预警有良好的指示作用。本研究以RAMMS(Rapid Mass Movement System)模型为手段,利用经验值和经验公式确定影响模拟结果的主要模型参数和积雪可能断裂深度,在优化分析的基础上,对两次雪崩事件进行重建,定量分析雪崩堆积量、堆积范围等。结果显示:1991年雪崩共持续了192s,雪崩体从海拔5730m处断裂,沿坡面崩塌而下最终堆积在海拔约5000m的冰川粒雪盆地区,形成面积为0.6km^(2),体积约67×10^(4)m^(3)的堆积体。2019年雪崩共持续了158s,雪崩流最大高度35.91m,最大速度79.34m·s,堆积量76.2×10^(4)m^(3),雪崩堆积范围与野外观测到的一致。两次雪崩事件发生地位于雪崩极高危险区和高危险区,在一定程度上验证了风险评估的准确性。研究结果可为梅里雪山地区未来潜在雪崩灾害的风险评估提供依据,为雪崩预测预警提供良好的参考。     

沟道型滑坡-碎屑流运动距离经验预测模型研究

沟道型滑坡-碎屑流具有隐蔽性强、危险性高、力学机理复杂的特点,研究其运动距离预测模型具有重要的理论意义和实践意义。本文基于遥感GIS技术,结合野外调查,获取了汶川地震触发的38个沟道型滑坡-碎屑流的基础数据。通过相关性分析确定沟道型滑坡-碎屑流最大水平运动距离L的影响因素从大到小依次是滑坡体积V、最大垂直运动距离H、滑源区高差Hs、沟道段坡度β。采用逐步回归方法建立了滑坡-碎屑流最大水平运动距离L的最优多元回归模型,检验结果表明模型具有较高精度。将最优多元回归模型与国际上应用较多的滑坡运动距离和泥石流运动距离预测模型进行对比,表明考虑滑坡体积、地形落差和沟道段坡度的运动距离预测指标体系,具有最高的拟合优度和较好的物理含义,可为沟谷山区滑坡-碎屑流危险性评价提供参考依据。     

The strength and weight of evidence in backcountry avalanche forecasting

In North America and Europe, most fatalities due to snow avalanches occur in the backcountry during recreational pursuits. Of these, more than 90% of the fatal avalanches are triggered by the victims themselves. This pattern suggests that the primary cause of avalanche fatalities for human-triggered avalanches is a failure in human perception. For the latter, people thought that the state of stability or instability of the snow cover was different than it actually was. In this paper, the strength and weight of evidence used to make decisions in backcountry travel are discussed from: (a) the perspective of the favored hypothesis to proceed for good recreational enjoyment based on stability evaluation and (b) the null hypothesis based on an assessment of instability. Based on the facts about snow slab avalanche release, it is argued that instability analysis is the best framework for avalanche forecasting, whereas human action is most closely related to the favored hypothesis (stability evaluation). Using scaling laws derived from: (a) fracture mechanics about the size of imperfections causing avalanches and (b) avalanche dimensions, it is suggested that a snow slab could show stability over more than 99% of the total area. From the concepts of Bayesian probability, it is shown that overconfidence about stability can arise when the weight of the likelihood is high and the weight of prior is low. Similarly, underconfidence (excessive conservatism) often results when the weight of the prior is high with little regard for the likelihood, which may be low. Overconfidence about stability is considered to be a prime source of accidents.     

ICL/IPL activities in West Africa: landslide risk assessment and hazard mapping approach

The ICL/IPL Project achieved results in capacity building, investigation of landslides in West Africa and also evaluated some other slope movements in the region. These include the catastrophic rock–debris avalanche at the Cameroon–Nigeria border and the Iva Valley landslides in Enugu. During the avalanche, an estimated 100 M m³ of rock and debris was moved more than 2 km from the source of the slide at 600 m above sea level to the toe in the valley in a few minutes. The materials range from mud and soil debris to blocks of rocks up to 20 m in diameter. The grain size of moved material tended to increase upslope and closer to the head scarp though it tended to decrease again close to and at the source area. Nature and composition of the basement bedrock with foliation planes dipping in the direction of slope, dominant joint sets oriented perpendicularly to the foliation, the nature of weathered material and high relief were strong factors in the avalanche. Field studies identified 43 landslides at the Iva Valley area of Enugu state, which were shallow, short run-out movements with slip-surface depth less than 2 m. The shallow slides and the avalanche are triggered by water infiltration in slopes with high topographic gradient. The soil saturation leads to a reduction of the shear strength of the soil because of a rise in pore water pressure. These landslides are known to occur during or after intense rainfalls at the beginning or at the tail end of rainy season.     

Vampire rock avalanches of January 2008 and 2003, Southern Alps, New Zealand

Rock avalanches fell from Vampire (2,645 m) Peak in the Southern Alps of New Zealand during January 2008. There were no direct witnesses, casualties or damage to infrastructure. Field observations indicate about 150,000 m³ (±50,000) of indurated greywacke collapsed retrogressively from a 73° slope between 2,380 and 2,520 m. Debris fell 800 m down Vampire’s south face and out 1.7 km across Mueller Glacier, with a 27.5° angle of reach. The resulting 300,000 m² avalanche deposit contains three distinct lobes. The national seismograph network recorded two pulses of avalanche-type shaking, equivalent in amplitude to a M _L 2.4 tectonic earthquake, for 60 s on Monday 7 January at 2349 hours (NZDT); then 45 s of shaking at M _L 2.5 on Sunday 13 January at 0923 hours (NZDT). Deposit lobes are inferred to relate directly with shaking episodes. The avalanche fell across the debris from an older avalanche, which was also unwitnessed and fell from a different source on Vampire’s south face between February and November 2003. The 2003 avalanche involved 120,000 m³ (±40,000) of interlayered sandstone and mudstone which collapsed from a 65° slope between 2,440 and 2,560 m, then fell 890 m down across Mueller Glacier at a 24° angle of reach. Prolonged above-freezing temperatures were recorded during January 2008, but no direct trigger has been identified. The event appears to be a spontaneous, gravitationally induced, stress failure.     

Monitoring and early warning of the 2012 Preonzo catastrophic rockslope failure

In this paper, we describe the investigations and actions taken to reduce risk and prevent casualties from a catastrophic 210,000 m³ rockslope failure, which occurred near the village of Preonzo in the Swiss Alps on May 15, 2012. We describe the geological predisposition and displacement history before and during the accelerated creep stage as well as the development and operation of an efficient early warning system. The failure of May 15, 2012, occurred from a large and retrogressive instability in gneisses and amphibolites with a total volume of about 350,000 m³, which formed an alpine meadow 1250 m above the valley floor. About 140,000 m³ of unstable rock mass remained in place and might collapse partially or completely in the future. The instability showed clearly visible signs of movements along a tension crack since 1989 and accelerated creep with significant hydromechanical forcing since about 2006. Because the active rockslide at Preonzo threatened a large industrial facility and important transport routes located directly at the toe of the slope, an early warning system was installed in 2010. The thresholds for prealarm, general public alarm, and evacuation were derived from crack meter and total station monitoring data covering a period of about 10 years, supplemented with information from past failure events with similar predisposition. These thresholds were successfully applied to evacuate the industrial facility and to close important roads a few days before the catastrophic slope failure of May 15, 2012. The rock slope failure occurred in two events, exposing a compound rupture plane dipping 42° and generating deposits in the midslope portion with a travel angle of 39°. Three hours after the second rockslide, the fresh deposits became reactivated in a devastating debris avalanche that reached the foot of the slope but did not destroy any infrastructure. The final run-out distance of this combined rock collapse–debris avalanche corresponded to the predictions made in the year 2004.     

The relative importance of soil crust and slope angle in runoff and soil loss: a case study in the hilly areas of the Loess Plateau, North China

Soil crust and slope angle are of important factors affecting runoff production and sediment yield. In the hilly areas of the Loess Plateau, North China, slope lands are distributed extensively and subjected to soil crusting; therefore, the research on the responses of runoff and soil loss to soil crust and slope angle is essential to soil and water conservation. In the study, five pairs of 1 m × 5 m plots with slope angles of 5°, 10°, 15°, 20° and 25° respectively, were established in Wangjiagou watershed, which was located at the Loess Plateau, China. Based on the two simulated rainfall events, uncrusted surface prior to the first simulated rainfall event, and crusted surface prior to the second rainfall event were distinguished. The runoff production and soil loss were measured at intervals of 5 min during the simulated events. It indicated that both soil crust and slope angle played an important role in runoff production and soil loss. With the reference slope angle of 5°, the relative importance of soil crust and slope angle in runoff production was calculated. It showed that soil crust effect on the total runoff volume decreased from 100 to ～40%, while slope angle effect increased from 0 to ～60% with increasing slope angle because soil crust less developed on the steeper slopes. Furthermore, soil crust effect was associated with rainfall duration. At the same slope angle, the relative importance of soil crust decreased with rainfall duration because new crust was formed on the uncrusted surface. The critical slope of erosion was also discussed. Soil loss increased with slope angle when the slope angle was less than 20°. Generally speaking, soil crust effect decreased with slope angle and/or rainfall duration.     

Avalanche Risk During Backcountry Skiing – An Analysis of Risk Factors

Skier-triggered avalanches are the main cause of avalanche accidents in backcountry skiing. The risk of accidents during backcountry skiing was analysed statistically and related to factors such as elevation level, aspect, stability rating and the time of the year. The analysis is based on a database about terrain usage and avalanche accidents from a large heli-skiing operator in Canada, which makes it possible to study the conditional probability of accidents given the recorded pattern of terrain usage. This study shows that the historical risk of accidentally triggering an avalanche greater than size 1 depends highly on the stability rating, with the highest risk occurring during “poor” stability. The risk is greater at high elevations, and it is lower during the late season than earlier on. Skier risk does not depend as much on aspect as may be indicated from avalanche data alone. However, it is relatively high in the N–NE–E sector. These factors are not independent of each other and therefore analyses of combined factors were also performed. Questionnaires and interviews were used to gain knowledge about the terrain selection of professional mountain guides. These results indicate that when selecting terrain, guides first look at the overall shape and size of the terrain, but avalanche history of terrain and inclination are also important factors. Finally, remarks in avalanche reports were analysed, and common human factors identified.     

Research on catastrophic rock avalanche at Guanling, Guizhou, China

On June 28, 2010, a catastrophic rock avalanche occurred after an extreme rainstorm at Guanling with N 25°59′10′′ in latitude and E 105°16′50′′ in longitude, Guizhou, China. This rock avalanche has a long run-out distance of 1.5 km, with 1.75 million cubic meters of debris instantly burying two villages and resulting in 99 deaths. It originated in the coal measure strata, with the upper part of limestone and dolomite, the middle part of the sandstone with gentle inclination, and the lower part of shale and mudstone, together locally with coals. This kind of unique structure, with hard resistant caprock overlying softer ductile rocks, coupled with the central outflow region at the contact zone, has catastrophic potential for rock avalanches and creates challenges for engineering geological/hydrogeological analysis. The topography showed that the hillside slopes were steeper at the upper portion but gentler in the lower portion, looked like the shape of a “boot.” The upper steep landform easily led to slope instability due to its high static shear stresses, and the wide middle and lower parts provided kinematic conditions for long run-out. Transformation of the larger potential energy into kinetic energy contributed to the formation of a rapid long run-out rock avalanche. The rainfall from June 27 to 28 was the apparent trigger of this catastrophic avalanche. The measured rainfall of more than 310 mm within 24 h exceeded the local historical records that were recorded over the last 60 years. The pore pressure on discontinuities of sandstone had an effect on the slope stability. The valley runoff supplied a saturated base for the long run-out debris, inducing an additional increase of the terminus distance and the increased velocity of the avalanche movement.