Implementing landslide path dependency in landslide susceptibility modelling

Landslide susceptibility modelling—a crucial step towards the assessment of landslide hazard and risk—has hitherto not included the local, transient effects of previous landslides on susceptibility. In this contribution, we implement such transient effects, which we term “landslide path dependency”, for the first time. Two landslide path dependency variables are used to characterise transient effects: a variable reflecting how likely it is that an earlier landslide will have a follow-up landslide and a variable reflecting the decay of transient effects over time. These two landslide path dependency variables are considered in addition to a large set of conditioning attributes conventionally used in landslide susceptibility. Three logistic regression models were trained and tested fitted to landslide occurrence data from a multi-temporal landslide inventory: (1) a model with only conventional variables, (2) a model with conventional plus landslide path dependency variables, and (3) a model with only landslide path dependency variables. We compare the model performances, differences in the number, coefficient and significance of the selected variables, and the differences in the resulting susceptibility maps. Although the landslide path dependency variables are highly significant and have impacts on the importance of other variables, the performance of the models and the susceptibility maps do not substantially differ between conventional and conventional plus path dependent models. The path dependent landslide susceptibility model, with only two explanatory variables, has lower model performance, and differently patterned susceptibility map than the two other models. A simple landslide susceptibility model using only DEM-derived variables and landslide path dependency variables performs better than the path dependent landslide susceptibility model, and almost as well as the model with conventional plus landslide path dependency variables—while avoiding the need for hard-to-measure variables such as land use or lithology. Although the predictive power of landslide path dependency variables is lower than those of the most important conventional variables, our findings provide a clear incentive to further explore landslide path dependency effects and their potential role in landslide susceptibility modelling.     

Morphological methods and dynamic modelling in landslide hazard assessment of the Campania Apennine carbonate slope

Landslide risk of the Campanian carbonate slopes covered by pyroclastic deposits is mainly connected with the occurrence of high-velocity debris avalanches and debris flows. Analyses show that flows initiate as small translational slides in the pyroclastics. The failure process is controlled by the interaction of both natural and human-induced factors. Geomorphological settings play a decisive role in locating the source failures. Therefore, the crucial aspects in landslide hazard and risk assessment are: (a) recognise the geomorphological control factors, (b) determine parameters defining landslide intensity (velocity, volume, depth of deposit) and (c) predict landslide runout distance. An approach combining geomorphology and numerical analysis has been adopted in the work reported here. Potential future landslide intensity scenarios are simulated predicting the runout behaviour of potential instabilities by using a dynamic model previously calibrated by back-analysing observed events of similar scale and type. The selected area is a sector of the Avella Mountains having the same geomorphological environment as the 1998 Sarno landslides (Campania, Southern Italy).     

Statistical modelling of Europe-wide landslide susceptibility using limited landslide inventory data

In many regions, the absence of a landslide inventory hampers the production of susceptibility or hazard maps. Therefore, a method combining a procedure for sampling of landslide-affected and landslide-free grid cells from a limited landslide inventory and logistic regression modelling was tested for susceptibility mapping of slide- and flow-type landslides on a European scale. Landslide inventories were available for Norway, Campania (Italy), and the Barcelonnette Basin (France), and from each inventory, a random subsample was extracted. In addition, a landslide dataset was produced from the analysis of Google Earth images in combination with the extraction of landslide locations reported in scientific publications. Attention was paid to have a representative distribution of landslides over Europe. In total, the landslide-affected sample contained 1,340 landslides. Then a procedure to select landslide-free grid cells was designed taking account of the incompleteness of the landslide inventory and the high proportion of flat areas in Europe. Using stepwise logistic regression, a model including slope gradient, standard deviation of slope gradient, lithology, soil, and land cover type was calibrated. The classified susceptibility map produced from the model was then validated by visual comparison with national landslide inventory or susceptibility maps available from literature. A quantitative validation was only possible for Norway, Spain, and two regions in Italy. The first results are promising and suggest that, with regard to preparedness for and response to landslide disasters, the method can be used for urgently required landslide susceptibility mapping in regions where currently only sparse landslide inventory data are available.     

Depth integrated modelling of submarine landslide evolution

Landslides - Submarine landslides are a major geohazard among worldwide continental slopes, posing significant threats to offshore infrastructure, marine animal habitats and coastal urban centres....     

Advanced programming methods and data structures for computational modelling using edge‐based finite volume methods

The generation of a numerical model must consider the separate issues of the governing equations, the numerical representation of those equations, the data structure that describes the model, the choice of programming language and finally the implementation and code management issues. These issues are considered as a whole in this paper and as a consequence, 10 golden rules for numerical modelling are proposed. By way of application, a saturated–unsaturated flow problem is modelled using the Richards equation and an innovative edge‐based finite volume method. The implementation uses a novel data structure. This is shown to have over 91% code re‐use and hence code written in this way is highly flexible and applicable to many different problems. By way of example, a compacted core earth filled dam problem has been solved. Finally, we conclude that this advanced programming method can significantly reduce code development time. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Numerical modelling of rheological properties of landslide debris

Debris flow has caused severe human casualties and economic losses in landslide-prone areas around the globe. A comprehensive understanding of the morphology and deposition mechanisms of debris flows is crucial to delineate the extent of a debris flow hazard. However, due to inherent complex field topography and varying compositions of the flowing debris, coupled with a lack of fundamental understanding about the factors controlling the geomaterial flow, interparticle interactions and its final settlement resulted in a limited understanding of the flow behaviour of the landslide debris. In this study, a physical model was set up in the laboratory to simulate and calibrate the debris flow using PFC, a distinct element modelling-based software. After calibration, a case study of the Varunavat landslide was taken to validate the developed numerical model. Following validation with an acceptable level of confidence, several models were generated to evaluate the effect of slope height, slope angle, slope profile, and grain size distribution of the dislodged geomaterial in the rheological properties of debris flow. Both qualitative and quantitative analysis of the landslide debris flow was performed. Finally, the utility of retaining wall and their effect on debris flow is also studied with different retaining wall positions along the slope surface.

     

Uncertainty pattern in landslide susceptibility prediction modelling: Effects of different landslide boundaries and spatial shape expressions

In some studies on landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM), landslide boundary and spatial shape characteristics have been expressed in the form of points or circles in the landslide inventory instead of the accurate polygon form. Different expressions of landslide boundaries and spatial shapes may lead to substantial differences in the distribution of predicted landslide susceptibility indexes (LSIs); moreover, the presence of irregular landslide boundaries and spatial shapes introduces uncertainties into the LSM. To address this issue by accurately drawing polygonal boundaries based on LSM, the uncertainty patterns of LSM modelling under two different landslide boundaries and spatial shapes, such as landslide points and circles, are compared. Within the research area of Ruijin City in China, a total of 370 landslides with accurate boundary information are obtained, and 10 environmental factors, such as slope and lithology, are selected. Then, correlation analyses between the landslide boundary shapes and selected environmental factors are performed via the frequency ratio (FR) method. Next, a support vector machine (SVM) and random forest (RF) based on landslide points, circles and accurate landslide polygons are constructed as point-, circle- and polygon-based SVM and RF models, respectively, to address LSM. Finally, the prediction capabilities of the above models are compared by computing their statistical accuracy using receiver operating characteristic analysis, and the uncertainties of the predicted LSIs under the above models are discussed. The results show that using polygonal surfaces with a higher reliability and accuracy to express the landslide boundary and spatial shape can provide a markedly improved LSM accuracy, compared to those based on the points and circles. Moreover, a higher degree of uncertainty of LSM modelling is present in the expression of points because there are too few grid units acting as model input variables. Additionally, the expression of the landslide boundary as circles introduces errors in measurement and is not as accurate as the polygonal boundary in most LSM modelling cases. In addition, the results under different conditions show that the polygon-based models have a higher LSM accuracy, with lower mean values and larger standard deviations compared with the point- and circle-based models. Finally, the overall LSM accuracy of the RF is superior to that of the SVM, and similar patterns of landslide boundary and spatial shape affecting the LSM modelling are reflected in the SVM and RF models.     

Computational fluid dynamics modelling of landslide generated water waves

This paper describes the application of detailed computational fluid dynamics (CFD) to simulate the formation and propagation of waves generated by the impact of landslide material with water. The problem is schematised as a multiphase–multicomponent fluid flow: compressible air, water and transported alluvial material. The landslide simulation is performed by means of a hybrid approach: as a rigid solid body slipping down along an inclined slope until it starts penetrating the water body. The CFD model solves the Navier–Stokes equations with the RNG k-ɛ turbulence closure scheme and the volume of fluid multiphase method, which maintains the interface as a sharp front. The governing equations are solved using the commercial CFD code, FLUENT. The computed results are compared with experimental data reported in the literature. The model is then applied to simulate the 1958 Lituya bay Tsunami event with a 2D a simplified geometry and the results are compared to others found in literature.     

Canelles landslide: modelling rapid drawdown and fast potential sliding

A large landslide (40 × 10⁶ m³) was reactivated on the left bank of Canelles reservoir, Spain. The instability was made evident after a considerable reduction of the reservoir level. The drawdown took place during the summer of 2006 after several years of high water levels. The drawdown velocity reached values between 0.5 and 1.2 m/day (registered at low elevations). The paper reports the geological and geotechnical investigations performed to define the movement. The geometry of the slip surface was established from the detailed analysis of the continuous cores recovered in deep borings and from limited information provided by inclinometers. Deep piezometric records provided also valuable information on the pore water pressure in the vicinity of the failure surface. These data allowed validating a flow–deformation coupled calculation model, which takes into account the changes in water level that occurred 4  years previous to the failure as well as the average rainfall. The analysis indicates that the most likely reason for the instability is the rapid drawdown that took place during the summer of 2006. The potential sudden acceleration of the slide is also analysed in the paper introducing coupled thermal hydraulic and mechanical effects that may develop at the basal shearing surface of the sliding mass. The results indicate that the slide velocity may reach values around 16 m/s when displacement reaches 250 m.     

A statistical approach to landslide risk modelling at basin scale: from landslide susceptibility to quantitative risk assessment

A procedure for landslide risk assessment is presented. The underlying hypothesis is that statistical relationships between past landslide occurrences and conditioning variables can be used to develop landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk models. The latter require also data on past damages. Landslides occurred during the last 50 years and subsequent damages were analysed. Landslide susceptibility models were obtained by means of Spatial Data Analysis techniques and independently validated. Scenarios defined on the basis of past landslide frequency and magnitude were used to transform susceptibility into quantitative hazard models. To assess vulnerability, a detailed inventory of exposed elements (infrastructures, buildings, land resources) was carried out. Vulnerability values (0–1) were obtained by comparing damages experienced in the past by each type of element with its actual value. Quantitative risk models, with a monetary meaning, were obtained for each element by integrating landslide hazard and vulnerability models. Landslide risk models showing the expected losses for the next 50 years were thus obtained for the different scenarios. Risk values obtained are not precise predictions of future losses but rather a means to identify areas where damages are likely to be greater and require priority for mitigation actions.     

Improving basin scale shallow landslide modelling using reliable soil thickness maps

Soil thickness is a well-known factor controlling shallow landsliding. Notwithstanding, its spatial organisation over large areas is poorly understood, and in basin scale slope analyses it is often established using simple methods. In this paper, we apply five different soil thickness models in two test sites, and we use the obtained soil thickness maps to feed a slope stability model. Validation quantifies how errors in soil thickness influence the resulting factor of safety and points out which method grants the best results. In particular, in our cases, slope-derived soil thickness patterns produced the worst slope stability assessment, while the use of reliable soil thickness maps obtained by means of a more complex geomorphologically indexed model improved shallow landslides modelling.     

作揖沱崩滑堆积体稳定性评价及防治对策

本文首先从地质背景、形态特征、滑面特征及水文地质等方面,对作揖沱崩滑堆积体的特征进行了概括。在总结已有研究成果的基础上,将降雨对斜坡稳定性的影响进行了定量确定,并在剩余推力法公式和程序中加入这些量化关系,对剩余推力法进行了改进。然后用试验、参数反演及综合经验等方法确定了作揖沱崩滑堆积体稳定性计算的参数,采用改进的剩余推力法与Sarma法对其进行稳定性计算,结果表明:降雨与库水位的提升对作揖沱崩滑堆积体稳定性的影响较大。最后,根据作揖沱崩滑堆积体失稳可能产生的危害,提出了相应的防治对策。     

GIS-based weights-of-evidence modelling of rainfall-induced landslides in small catchments for landslide susceptibility mapping

Landslide susceptibility mapping is a vital tool for disaster management and planning development activities in mountainous terrains of tropical and subtropical environments. In this paper, the weights-of-evidence modelling was applied, within a geographical information system (GIS), to derive landslide susceptibility map of two small catchments of Shikoku, Japan. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the importance of weights-of-evidence modelling in the generation of landslide susceptibility maps in relatively small catchments having an area less than 4 sq km. For the study area in Moriyuki and Monnyu catchments, northeast Shikoku Island in west Japan, a data set was generated at scale 1:5,000. Relevant thematic maps representing various factors (e.g. slope, aspect, relief, flow accumulation, soil depth, soil type, land use and distance to road) that are related to landslide activity were generated using field data and GIS techniques. Both catchments have homogeneous geology and only consist of Cretaceous granitic rock. Thus, bedrock geology was not considered in data layering during GIS analysis. Success rates were also estimated to evaluate the accuracy of landslide susceptibility maps and the weights-of-evidence modelling was found useful in landslide susceptibility mapping of small catchments.     

Centrifuge modelling of landslides and landslide hazard mitigation: A review

Landslides are serious geohazards that occur under a variety of climatic conditions and can cause many casualties and significant economic losses. Centrifuge modelling, as a representative type of physical modelling, provides a realistic simulation of the stress level in a small-scale model and has been applied over the last 50 years to develop a better understanding of landslides. With recent developments in this technology, the application of centrifuge modelling in landslide science has significantly increased. Here, we present an overview of physical models that can capture landslide processes during centrifuge modelling. This review focuses on (i) the experimental principles and considerations, (ii) landslide models subjected to various triggering factors, including centrifugal acceleration, rainfall, earthquakes, water level changes, thawing permafrost, excavation, external loading and miscellaneous conditions, and (iii) different methods for mitigating landslides modelled in centrifuge, such as the application of nails, piles, geotextiles, vegetation, etc. The behaviors of all the centrifuge models are discussed, with emphasis on the deformation and failure mechanisms and experimental techniques. Based on this review, we provide a best-practice methodology for preparing a centrifuge landslide test and propose further efforts in terms of the seven aspects of model materials, testing design and equipment, measurement methods, scaling laws, full-scale test applications, landslide early warning, and 3D modelling to better understand the complex behaviour of landslides.     

滑(边)坡稳定性计算分析中的滑坡推力计算方法

滑坡推力计算一直是边坡稳定性分析、防护加固设计及滑坡治理抗滑工程设计中的核心问题。根据抗滑支挡工程结构与被加固滑坡体的力学关系,滑坡推力计算方法可概括为分离法、虚力法及结构与岩土数值耦合法。不同的计算方法得到的滑坡推力值有差异。用以上3种方法对拟设桩结构物的内力进行计算,对比分析发现,分离法及虚力法最终均需对桩侧滑坡推力分布形式进行假定,假定分布形式不同所得内力不同;数值耦合法可直接得到桩侧应力分布形式,且考虑了桩与岩土的偶合效应,计算结果较为合理,有必要进一步分析研究与推广应用。     

Physically based modelling of shallow landslide sediment yield at a catchment scale

 A shallow landslide erosion and sediment yield component, applicable at the basin scale, has been incorporated into the physically based, spatially distributed, hydrological and sediment transport modelling system, SHETRAN. The component determines when and where landslides occur in a basin in response to time-varying rainfall and snowmelt, the volume of material eroded and released for onward transport, and the impact on basin sediment yield. Derived relationships are used to link the SHETRAN grid resolution (up to 1 km), at which the basin hydrology and final sediment yield is modelled, to a subgrid resolution (typically around 10–100 m) at which landslide occurrence and erosion is modelled. The subgrid discretization, landslide susceptibility and potential landslide impact are determined in advance using a geographic information system (GIS), with SHETRAN then providing information on temporal variation in the factors controlling landsliding. The ability to simulate landslide sediment yield is demonstrated by a hypothetical application based on a catchment in Scotland. Received: 30 October 1996 · Accepted: 25 June 1997     

滑坡推力计算方法的对比研究与应用

滑坡推力计算方法可以概括为传递系数法、刚体极限平衡分析方法和有限元数值法等三类。传递系数法被工程技术人员所广泛应用,但随着滑(边)坡稳定性分析计算理论的发展,传统传递系数法有将逐步被先进而更实用的方法所取代的趋势;Morgenstern-Price法为刚体极限平衡分析方法的代表之一,这类方法在滑动面出现反坡段时计算结果偏于不合理;有限元数值法在模拟路堑开挖边坡时应追踪实际的应力场变化过程、依序建模,才能更符合工程实际,有限元数值法能同时得到滑坡推力与桩身内力图,比"K"法优越之处为能反映出由岩土本身性质的差异所造成的滑面下桩侧应力值差异。对比分析结果显示,有限元数值法进行滑坡推力计算结果较为合理,有必要进一步分析研究与推广应用。     

自动网格法在大型滑坡模型试验位移测试中的应用

应用非接触式光学测量方法中自动网格法原理,研究了大型滑坡模型试验中的位移测试方法及其分布规律。以石榴树包滑坡模型试验为例,针对自动网格法用于大型滑坡模型试验位移测量时所存在的问题提出了解决措施,并对石榴树包滑坡在不同水位运行工况下的位移规律进行了研究分析。     

Finite element modelling of landslide prone slopes around Rudraprayag and Agastyamuni in Uttarakhand Himalayan terrain

Himalayan mountain chains are neo-tectonically active and significantly susceptible to frequent geohazards like landslides, earthquakes, cloudburst and flash floods, etc. Himalayan slopes are characterized by highly fractured, jointed and sheared rock mass. This affects the strength of the rocks and thus largely influences the stability characteristic of slopes which have been aggravated by human intervention. The ongoing developmental activities, particularly in the last two decades, are responsible for large-scale destabilization of slopes. In rugged terrain, safer designs along hill-cut roads must be ensured. Despite extensive geotechnical works for slope stabilization done in the Himalayan range, slope sections evolve due to various natural and man-made factors are need to be understood in greater details. Proper evaluation and treatment were done on the cut slopes that are severely affected during Kedarnath disaster of June 2013. One of such roads is national highway from Rudraprayag to Gaurikund near Kedarnath. In this study, the stability of vulnerable road cut slopes from Rudraprayag to Agastmuni was investigated. Three key road cut slopes were considered. Finite element analysis was conducted using PLAXIS simulator. Factors of safety, stress, strain, horizontal and vertical displacement have been determined for each slope. The most unstable slope had a factor of safety (FoS) equal to 0.935, while the most stable slope had FoS equal to 2.56. Outcomes from simulation are in good agreement with the prevailing field conditions. Slope stability evaluation must be performed to ensure better safety and to achieve disaster mitigated design.     

崩塌滑坡地质灾害治理方法的研究进展

论文对崩塌、滑坡等地质灾害的防治处理进行归纳总结，并依据灾害的类型、性质、成因、规模大小、滑体特点提出了不同的治理方法。包括：绕避、加载反压、清方减重、防崩滑挡土墙、抗滑明洞、排水工程、抗滑桩、锚杆加固等。根据工程特点，需要在地质勘探和稳定性分析后对治理方案进行优化。