Integrated risk zoning of drought and waterlogging disasters based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation in Anhui Province,China

This study presents a methodology for risk analysis, assessment, combination, and regionalization of integrated drought and waterlogging disasters in Anhui Province, which is supported by geographical information systems (GIS) and technique of natural disaster risk assessment from the viewpoints of climatology, geography, disaster science, environmental science, and so on. Along with the global warming, the occurrences of water-related disasters become more frequent and serious. It is necessary to determine the mode of spatial distribution of water-related disaster risk. Based on the principle of natural disaster risk, natural conditions, and socioeconomic situation, drought and waterlogging disaster risk index, which combined hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and restorability, was developed by using combined weights, entropy, and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Drought and waterlogging disaster risk zoning map was made out by using GIS spatial analysis technique and gridding GIS technique. It was used for comparing the relative risk of economic and life losses in different grids of Anhui Province. It can also be used to compare the situation of different levels of drought and waterlogging disaster combination risk in a similar place. The result shows that the northwestern and central parts of Anhui Province possess higher risk, while the southwestern and northeastern parts possess lower risk. The information obtained from statistical offices and remote sensing data in relation to results compiled were statistically evaluated. The results obtained from this study are specifically intended to support local and national governmental agencies on water-related disaster management.     

Integrated risk assessment of flood disaster based on improved set pair analysis and the variable fuzzy set theory in central Liaoning Province,China

This study presents the methodology and procedure for risk assessment of flood disasters in central Liaoning Province, which was supported by geographical information systems (GIS) and technology of natural disaster risk assessment. On the basis of the standard formulation of natural disaster risk and flood disaster risk index, of which weights were developed using combined weights of entropy, the relative membership degree functions of variable fuzzy set (VFS) theory were calculated using improved set pair analysis, while level values were calculated using VFSs, including hazard levels, exposure levels, vulnerability levels and restorability levels, and the flood risk level for each assessment unit was obtained using the natural disaster index method. Consequently, integrated flood risk map was carried out by GIS spatial analysis technique. The results show that the southwestern and central parts of the study area possess higher risk, while the northwestern and southeastern parts possess lower risk. The results got by the assessment model fits the area of historical flood data; this study offer new insights and possibility to carry out an efficient way for flood disaster prevention and mitigation. The study also provides scientific reference in flood risk management for local and national governmental agencies.     

Probabilistic winter storm risk assessment for residential buildings in Germany

Losses resulting from winter storms contribute a significant part to the overall losses among all natural hazards in most mid-latitude European countries. A realistic assessment of storm risk is therefore essential for prevention and coping measures. The paper presents a framework for probabilistic storm risk assessment for residential buildings which is exemplarily performed for Germany. Two different approaches are described, and results are presented. The hazard-based approach brings together hazard, vulnerability and building assets to calculate risk curves for each community. The storm-based approach uses loss information from past storm events to calculate statistical return periods of severe storms. As a result, a return period of 83 years to the most severe storm series in 1990 is calculated. Average annual losses of €170 million to residential buildings are calculated for all over Germany. The study demonstrates how the approaches complement each other and how validation is performed.     

The impact of irrigation water supply rate on agricultural drought disaster risk: a case about maize based on EPIC in Baicheng City,China

This study presents a methodology for risk analysis, assessment, and combination of drought disasters under the different irrigational levels in Baicheng City, which is supported by run theory, copula functions, crop growth model, and technique of natural disaster risk assessment from the viewpoints of climatology, geography, hydrology, agricultural science, disaster science, environmental science, and so on. Along with the global warming, the occurrences of water-related disasters become more frequent and more serious. It is necessary to determine the laws of the relationship between irrigational ability and the loss caused by drought. Drought events were identified by using run theory; the drought frequency was calculated by using copula function; the loss of every drought event was simulated by using EPIC model; and the relationship curves under the different irrigational supply conditions between the drought frequency and the yield reduction rate of the drought event were fitted to assess the impact of irrigational supply rate on the loss caused by drought. The results show that in the range of crop water demand, the loss caused by drought decreases as the result of the increase in irrigational supply rate; however, their variations are not proportional. The loss caused by the certain frequency drought event under the certain irrigational supply condition could be calculated by the curve of drought disaster risk assessment constructed by this study. The results obtained from this study are specifically intended to support local and national governmental agencies on agricultural disaster management.     

Landslide risk assessment and management: an overview

Landslides can result in enormous casualties and huge economic losses in mountainous regions. In order to mitigate landslide hazard effectively, new methodologies are required to develop a better understanding of landslide hazard and to make rational decisions on the allocation of funds for management of landslide risk. Recent advances in risk analysis and risk assessment are beginning to provide systematic and rigorous processes to enhance slope management. In recent years, risk analysis and assessment has become an important tool in addressing uncertainty inherent in landslide hazards.This article reviews recent advances in landslide risk assessment and management, and discusses the applicability of a variety of approaches to assessing landslide risk. Firstly, a framework for landslide risk assessment and management by which landslide risk can be reduced is proposed. This is followed by a critical review of the current state of research on assessing the probability of landsliding, runout behavior, and vulnerability. Effective management strategies for reducing economic and social losses due to landslides are described. Problems in landslide risk assessment and management are also examined.     

基于数值模拟的城镇地质灾害危险性评价方法

定量计算城镇尺度地质灾害不同降雨强度下的危险性是地质灾害风险评价中的难点。以红层地区群发性浅层滑坡链式灾害为研究对象,探索一种新的城镇尺度下的地质灾害危险性量化评价方法,为城镇地质灾害风险评价奠定基础。通过查询喜德县米市河区域不同降雨频率下降雨参数,统计分析国家雨量站数据及近50 a的18场群发性地质灾害降雨历时、雨型分布特征。以土层厚度、植被覆盖度及地形数据处理为基础,基于STEM TRAMM数值计算方法及降雨分布曲线计算城镇地质灾害危险性,绘制研究区地质灾害危险性评价图。通过遥感解译数据、地面调查数据及灾害数据库数据与数值计算结果对比,表明应用降雨特征统计及STEM TRAMM数值计算方法精细化评价红层地区城镇地质灾害危险性具有良好的适应性、便捷性及科学性,可为其他不同孕灾背景下的城镇地质灾害危险性评价提供思路。     

自然灾害脆弱性曲线研究进展

在全球变化与全球化背景下自然灾害风险逐年增大,灾害评估就成为风险防范的重要基础。灾害评估包括灾情估算与风险评估2个方面,而脆弱性分析是把灾害与风险研究紧密联系起来的重要桥梁。脆弱性曲线作为定量精确评估承灾体脆弱性的方法,近年来在多领域被广泛运用,成为灾情估算、风险定量分析以及风险地图编制的关键环节。从致灾因子角度综述脆弱性曲线的研究进展,重点阐述基于灾情数据、已有曲线、调查和模型的脆弱性曲线构建。研究表明脆弱性曲线构建由单曲线向多曲线库、单一参数向综合参数、单一方法向多领域综合应用发展,具有综合化和精细化的趋势。进一步开展多领域、多方法综合脆弱性曲线研究,对灾损快速评估及风险评价,防灾减灾具有重要意义。     

Earthquake loss estimation of residential buildings in Pakistan

Pakistan is an earthquake-prone region due to its tectonic setting resulting in high hazard with moderate-to-strong ground motions and vulnerability of structures and infrastructures, leading to the loss of lives and livelihood, property damage and economic losses. Earthquake-related disaster in Pakistan is a regular and serious threat to the community; however, the country lack tools for earthquake risk reduction through early warning (pre-earthquake planning), rapid response (prompt response at locations of high risk) and pre-financing earthquake risk (property insurance against disaster). This paper presents models for physical damageability assessment and socioeconomic loss estimation of structures in Pakistan for earthquake-induced ground motions, derived using state-of-the-art earthquake loss estimation methodologies. The methodologies are being calibrated with the site-specific materials and structures response, whereas the derived models are tested and validated against recent observed earthquakes in the region. The models can be used to develop damage scenario for earthquakes (assess damaged and collapsed structures, casualties and homeless) and estimate economic losses, i.e., cost of repair and reconstruction (for a single earthquake event as well as all possible earthquakes). The models can provide help on policy- and decision-making toward earthquake risk mitigation and disaster risk reduction in Pakistan.     

陕西陇县李家下滑坡风险评价

在野外勘查及室内实验的基础上,应用滑坡风险评价方法,对李家下滑坡进行了较为完整的风险评价,包括滑坡失稳概率计算、承灾体承灾概率计算、承灾体易损性计算和承灾体价值核算,最后得出滑坡总风险值,并将风险值用价值的形式量化表示。     

Vulnerability and risk: comparing assessment approaches

The concepts vulnerability and risk are of great importance in the fields of climate change and natural hazards. Confusion is asserted in the terminology used by the respective communities, and a large conceptual literature has not solved this problem. This affects the communication within and between the two communities and the comparison of results from vulnerability and risk assessments. This paper argues that the main difference between methods to assess vulnerability and risk in the climate and the disaster communities is not a conceptual one, but rather different terminologies are used. This point is made using a formal framework of vulnerability to climate change that makes the structure of vulnerability and risk assessments explicit. The framework distinguishes three assessment approaches in the field of vulnerability to climate change, which recur—under different labels—in the risk assessment approaches analysed. While within each community, the same terms are ambiguously used to refer to more than one assessment approach, the confusion is enhanced between the two communities by using different labels for very similar approaches. As an application of the results, similarities and differences between two assessment tools are analysed: the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment model (DIVA) for the case of vulnerability to climate change and the CATastrophe SIMulation model (CatSim) for risk of natural hazards.     

内蒙古锡林郭勒盟牧区雪灾风险评估研究

选取内蒙古锡林郭勒盟与积雪有关的雪灾致灾指标, 以气温、 风速为气象条件孕灾环境指标, 坡度、 植被盖度为下垫面孕灾环境指标, 人口密度、 牧民纯收入、 人均GDP、 牲畜超载率等数据为承灾体脆弱性指标, 基于BP方法、 层次分析法、 建立了内蒙古锡林郭勒盟白灾综合风险评价体系, 并对其进行了风险评价与区划。为提高灾害评估的准确率, 白灾的灾害等级是以月为尺度进行评定, 选取的气象指标多数都是以月为尺度的指标。研究表明： 白灾与积雪因子高度相关, 是气候灾害, 积雪、 低温、 大风等气象因子长期作用的结果。对白灾尝试用BP神经网络法进行风险评估, 评估的灾害等级和实际灾害等级十分吻合, 用训练好的神经网络对各个旗县（1980 - 2015年）的白灾进行了风险评估, 评估效果理想。因此, 可以通过数值预报产品、 气候预测产品获取相关评价因子, 采用BP方法形成白灾风险预评估产品, 进而应用于雪灾风险评估业务中, 为相关部门提供决策依据。     

泥石流灾害损失评价

泥石流灾害损失评价是对已经发生的泥百流灾害所造成的损失进行综合性的测算和统计。它是泥石流灾害评价的重要内容之一。一次泥石流灾害，除了直接造成人员伤亡和财产损失外，还可能伴有潜在的间接影响。此外，时间和空间分布状况的不同也增加了评价的难度。所以，泥石流灾害损失评价是一项复杂的工作。灾害损失的严重程度需要通过适当的指标来反映。根据承灾体特点，文章初步建立了泥石流灾害损失评价指标，分别为人员损失、经济损失和救灾投入费用，并且对于每个指标给定了相应的计算方法。人员损失主要由因灾死亡损失和因灾伤害损失两部分构成；经济损失包括直接经济损失和间接经济损失。直接经济损失集在在建筑、资产、交通、管线、资源5个方面，间接经济损失则通过与直接经；声损失的比例关系来进行换算；救灾投入费用是灾害发生后进行救援、治理、恢复等所花费的费用。最终的灾害总损失等于上述3部分损失之和。在此基础上，综合时间和地域因素，提出了灾害损失的时空比较方法，从而增加了评价的科学性和合理性。泥石流灾害损失评价为定量反映灾情、进行泥石流救灾优先性工作提供了依据。     

Probabilistic earthquake risk assessment using CAPRA: application to the city of Barcelona, Spain

The risk evaluation model CAPRA (Comprehensive Approach to Probabilistic Risk Assessment) is a techno-scientific methodology and information platform, composed of tools for evaluating and communicating risk at various territorial levels. The model allows evaluating losses on exposed elements using probabilistic metrics, such as the loss exceedance curve, the expected annual loss and the probable maximum loss, useful for multi-hazard risk analyses. In this article, the process of probabilistic seismic risk analysis is described, explaining the main features of the CAPRA modules of hazard, vulnerability and risk estimation applied to the city of Barcelona, Spain. In addition, according to the physical risk results and the information on the socioeconomic indicators of the city, this article presents the holistic evaluation of seismic risk, which is a valuable result to facilitate the integrated risk management by the different stakeholders involved in risk reduction decision making.     

工程滑坡防治关键问题初论

在概述工程滑坡灾害防治研究主要进展的基础上,从工程边坡扰动过程与机理、潜在工程滑坡危险性识别评估和监测预警3个方面,集成探索工程滑坡灾害有效预防的主要途径,强调潜在工程滑坡危险性识别评估是有效预防工程滑坡灾害的关键;从快速钻探勘察技术、快速评估和快速锚固技术,特别是深层滑坡自适应锚固技术研究方面,概述工程滑坡快速防治技术研究新进展;从主动减灾防灾理念和意识、工程滑坡风险评估与控制、综合减灾3个方面,集成研究主动减轻工程滑坡灾害的有效途径,强调构建“防、治、管”为一体的国家级综合减灾信息共享平台,是综合减灾防灾的关键。     

工程滑坡防治关键问题初论

在概述工程滑坡灾害防治研究主要进展的基础上,从工程边坡扰动过程与机理、潜在工程滑坡危险性识别评估和监测预警3个方面,集成探索工程滑坡灾害有效预防的主要途径,强调潜在工程滑坡危险性识别评估是有效预防工程滑坡灾害的关键;从快速钻探勘察技术、快速评估和快速锚固技术,特别是深层滑坡自适应锚固技术研究方面,概述工程滑坡快速防治技术研究新进展;从主动减灾防灾理念和意识、工程滑坡风险评估与控制、综合减灾3个方面,集成研究主动减轻工程滑坡灾害的有效途径,强调构建“防、治、管”为一体的国家级综合减灾信息共享平台,是综合减灾防灾的关键。     

基于三维地质信息模型的边坡风险分析

风险分析是降低边坡灾害损失的有效途径。以地理信息系统（Arcview GIS）为二次开发平台,建立边坡风险评估系统。该系统通过建立边坡的三维地质信息模型,根据模型的物理力学参数等属性数据,运用Monte-Carlo法求出三维边坡的失效概率,在易损性分析的基础上,计算边坡失稳的经济风险和生命风险。实例分析表明,基于三维地质信息模型的边坡风险分析可为相关风险决策提供科学依据     

单体滑坡灾害风险简易评价研究

按照灾害风险评价的一般框架,定性定量相结合,运用破坏概率、滑坡强度、承灾因子、遭遇特征与易损程度等5项指标,尝试提出单体滑坡灾害风险简易评价模型,并结合防治规划,提出了滑坡灾害风险管理对策建议。采用云南新平县滑坡灾害调查数据,开展了实例校验,结果表明,该模型基本反映了滑坡灾害的相对风险水平,可为现阶段管理提供更加明确的分级依据。同时,以期抛砖引玉,讨论险情调查与风险调查之间的关系。     

Up-scaling of impact dependent loss distributions: a hybrid convolution approach for flood risk in Europe

This paper introduces a new method to up-scale dependent loss distributions from natural hazards to higher spatial levels, explicitly incorporating their dependency structure over the aggregation process. The method is applied for flood risk in Europe. Based on this “hybrid convolution” approach, flood loss distributions for nearly all European countries are calculated and presented. Such risk-based estimates of extreme event losses are useful for determining suitable risk management strategies on various spatial levels for different risk bearers. The method is not only applicable for natural disaster risk but can be extended for other cases as well, i.e., where comonotonic risks have to be “summed up” without loss of risk information.     

Integrated application of the analytic hierarchy process and the geographic information system for flood risk assessment and flood plain management in Taiwan

Flooding is one of the major natural hazards in Taiwan, and most of the low-lying areas in Taiwan are flood-prone areas. In order to minimize loss of life and economic losses, a detailed and comprehensive decision-making tool is necessary for both flood control planning and emergency service operations. The objectives of this research were (i) to develop a hierarchical structure through the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to provide preferred options for flood risk analysis, (ii) to map the relative flood risk using the geographic information system (GIS), and (iii) to integrate these two methodologies and apply them to one urban and one semi-rural area in central Taiwan. Fushin Township and the floodplain of Fazih River (1 km on either side of the channel) in Taichung City were selected for this study. In this paper, the flood risk is defined as the relative flood risk due to broken dikes or the failure of stormwater drainage systems. Seven factors were considered in relation to the failure of stormwater drainage, and five to that of broken dikes. Following well-defined procedures, flood maps were drawn based on the data collected from expert responses to a questionnaire, the field survey, satellite images, and documents from flood management agencies. The relative values of flood risk are presented using a 200-m grid for the two study areas. It is concluded that integration of AHP and GIS in flood risk assessment can provide useful detailed information for flood risk management, and the method can be easily applied to most areas in Taiwan where required data sets are readily available.