Sea-level change and paleogeographic reconstructions,southern Vancouver Island,British Columbia,Canada

Forty-eight new and previously published radiocarbon ages constrain deglacial and postglacial sea levels on southern Vancouver Island, British Columbia. Sea level fell rapidly from its high stand of about +75 m elevation just before 14 000 cal BP (12 000 radiocarbon yrs BP) to below the present shoreline by 13 200 cal BP (11 400 radiocarbon years BP). The sea fell below its present level 1000 years later in the central Strait of Georgia and 2000 years later in the northern Strait of Georgia, reflecting regional differences in ice sheet retreat and downwasting. Direct observations only constrain the low stand to be below ?11 m and above ?40 m. Analysis of the crustal isostatic depression with equations utilizing exponential decay functions appropriate to the Cascadia subduction zone, however, places the low stand at ?30 ± 5 m at about 11 200 cal BP (9800 BP). The inferred low stand for southern Vancouver Island, when compared to the sea-level curve previously derived for the central Strait of Georgia to the northwest, generates differential isostatic depression that is consistent with the expected crustal response between the two regions. Morphologic and sub-bottom features previously interpreted to indicate a low stand of ?50 to ?65 m are re-evaluated and found to be consistent with a low stand of ?30 ± 5 m. Submarine banks in eastern Juan de Fuca Strait were emergent at the time of the low stand, but marine passages persisted between southern Vancouver Island and the mainland. The crustal uplift presently occurring in response to the Late Pleistocene collapse of the southwestern sector of the Cordilleran Ice Sheet amounts to about 0.1 mm/yr. The small glacial isostatic adjustment rate is a consequence of low-viscosity mantle in this tectonically active region.     

Extreme sea levels,coastal flooding and climate change with a focus on Atlantic Canada

Estimation of the probability distribution of extreme sea levels, for the present time and the next century, is discussed. Two approaches are described and their strengths and weaknesses are compared. The first approach is based on dynamics and uses a storm surge model forced by tides, winds and air pressure fields. The second approach is based on the statistical analysis of observed hourly sea level records using a new first-order Markov process that can capture non-Gaussian characteristics (such as skewness) in the non-tidal component of the observed sea level record. It is shown that both approaches can provide good estimates of present day flooding probabilities for regions with relatively strong tides. The limitations of both approaches in terms of assessing the effect of global sea level rise, glacial-isostatic adjustment of the land, and changes in the frequency and severity of storms and hurricanes, are illustrated using recent results for the Northwest Atlantic. Some sensitivity studies are carried out to transform uncertainty in climate change projections into uncertainties in the probability of coastal flooding.     

Correlation between land-use change and greenhouse gas emissions in urban areas

Urban areas are the main sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Previous studies have identified the effectiveness of better urban design on mitigating climate change and land-use patterns in cities as important factors in reducing GHG by local governments. However, studies documenting the link between land-use and GHG emissions are scant. Therefore, this study explores the driving forces of land-use change and GHG emission increments in urban areas and investigates their correlations. The study area, Xinzhuang, is a satellite city of Taipei that has rapidly urbanized in the past few decades. Twenty-one potential variables were selected to determine the driving forces of land-use change and GHG emission increments by binomial logistic regression based on the investigation data of national land use in 1996 and 2007. The correlation of land-use change and GHG increments was examined by Spearman rank-order analysis. Results of logistic regression analysis identified that population and its increasing density rate are main driving forces on both land-use change and GHG increments. The Spearman rank correlation matrix indicates that fluctuating urbanization level is significantly correlated with the increase of total GHG emissions, the emissions of residence, commerce, and transportation sectors in neighborhoods; and the emissions of residence and transportation sectors seem closely connected to current urbanization level. The findings suggest that relationships among land-use, urbanization, and GHG emissions in urban areas vary greatly according to residence and transportation characteristics. Land-based mitigation may provide the most viable mechanism for reducing GHG emissions through residence and transportation sectors.     

Modeling and assessing land-use and hydrological processes to future land-use and climate change scenarios in watershed land-use planning

Effective information regarding environmental responses to future land-use and climate change scenarios provides useful support for decision making in land use planning, management and policies. This study developed an approach for modeling and examining the impacts of future land-use and climate change scenarios on streamflow, surface runoff and groundwater discharge using an empirical land-use change model, a watershed hydrological model based on various land use policies and climate change scenarios in an urbanizing watershed in Taiwan. The results of the study indicated that various demand and conversion policies had different levels of impact on hydrological components in all land-use scenarios in the study watershed. Climate changes were projected to have a greater impact in increasing surface runoff and reducing groundwater discharge than are land use changes. Additionally, the spatial distributions of land-use changes also influenced hydrological processes in both downstream and upstream areas, particularly in the downstream watershed. The impacts on hydrological components when considering both land use and climate changes exceeded those when only considering land use changes or climate changes, particularly on surface runoff and groundwater discharge. However, the proposed approach provided a useful source of information for assessing the responses of land use and hydrological processes to future land use and climate changes.     

Global climate change and human health

Predicted changes in temperature during the next century and the possibility of substantial depletion of stratospheric ozone would represent an unprecedently rapid change in the global environment with enormous effects including important impacts on human health. These are likely to be most obvious in the Third World where some areas can expect an intencification of existing major health hazards: an increased frequency of floods and storms; changes to the availability of food and good quality domestic water supplies and climate-related changes in the ecology of insect vectors for diseases such as malaria. In developed countries significant impacts can be also be anticipated. More frequent episodes of hot weather could be associated with more food poisoning and with increases in deaths from circulatory diseases. These might be offset by lower mortality rates in warmer winters. Exposure to photochemical atmospheric pollution is likely to increase. Stratospheric ozone depletion together with more exposure to sun in warmer weather could accelerate the existing rise in the incidence of skin cancer and increase the risk of cataracts.     

Global climate change and human health

Predicted changes in temperature during the next century and the possibility of substantial depletion of stratospheric ozone would represent an unprecedently rapid change in the global environment with enormous effects including important impacts on human health. These are likely to be most obvious in the Third World where some areas can expect an intensification of existing major health hazards: an increased frequency of floods and storms; changes to the availability of food and good quality domestic water supplies and climate-related changes in the ecology of insect vectors for diseases such as malaria. In developed countries significant impacts can also be anticipated. More frequent episodes of hot weather could be associated with more food poisoning and with increases in deaths from circulatory diseases. These might be offset by lower mortality rates in warmer winters. Exposure to photochemical atmospheric pollution is likely to increase. Stratospheric ozone depletion together with more exposure to sun in warmer weather could accelerate the existing rise in the incidence of skin cancer and increase the risk of cataracts.     

Compositional evolution in Ca-amphibole in the Karmutsen metabasites, Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada

Abstract The 6-km-thick Karmutsen metabasites, exposed over much of Vancouver Island, were thermally metamorphosed by intrusions of Jurassic granodiorite and granite. Observations of about 800 thin sections from the Campbell River and Buttle Lake area show that the metabasites provide a complete succession of mineral assemblages ranging from the zeolite to pyroxene hornfels facies around the intrusion. The most important observations are as follows. (1) The compositional change of Ca-amphiboles with increasing metamorphic grade is not straightforward. The tremolite component decreases from the prehnite–actinolite facies to the greenschist facies with a compensating tschermak component increase, but the tendency is not clear thereafter. Instead, the edenite component increases from the amphibolite facies to the pyroxene hornfels facies. (2) The most pargasitic Ca-amphibole occurs in high-Fe²⁺/Mg metabasite from the greenschist/amphibolite transition zone. (3) The reasons for such irregular compositional trends, even in the rather uniform MORB-like composition of the Karmutsen metabasites, are non-ideal solid solutions of Ca-amphibole at low temperature and the effective control by bulk rock composition in the amphibolite facies. (4) The data from this study support, but do not prove, a transition loop for the actinolite–hornblende compositional gap rather than a solvus. If the gap is a solvus, its shape is asymmetric, and is highly dependent on the other compositional parameters such as Fe³⁺/Al and Fe²⁺/Mg. (5) The X_NaA/X_A±X_Ab) ratios between Ca-amphibole and plagioclase are most useful as an indicator of metamorphic grade even within the amphibolite facies, and these change systematically from 0.2 to 0.5 from the greenschist to pyroxene hornfels facies. (6) The compositional trend of Ca-amphibole from the Karmutsen metabasites indicates a typical low-P/T metamorphic facies series on a Rbk–Gln–Tr–Ts diagram.     

Earthquake shaking probabilities for communities on Vancouver Island,British Columbia,Canada

Comprehensive risk assessments are fundamental to effective emergency management. These assessments need to identify the range of hazards (or perils) an entity is exposed to and quantify the specific threats associated with each of those hazards. While hazard identification is commonly, if not formally, conducted in most circumstances, specific threat analysis is often overlooked for a variety of reasons, one of which is poor communication with subject matter experts. This poor communication is often attributable to an adherence to scientific jargon and missed opportunities to simplify information. In Canada, for example, earthquake hazard calculations have been readily available to engineers and scientists for decades. This hazard information, however, is expressed in terms of peak ground accelerations (PGA) or spectral accelerations (SA) that are foreign concepts to most emergency managers, community decision-makers and the public-at-large. There is, therefore, a need to more clearly, simply and effectively express seismic hazard information to the non-scientific community. This paper provides crustal, sub-crustal and subduction interface earthquake shaking probabilities, expressed as simple percentages for each of 57 locations across Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada. Calculations present the likelihood of earthquake shaking on Vancouver Island as the probabilities of exceeding each of three shaking intensity thresholds (“widely felt”; onset of “non-structurally damaging” shaking; and onset of “structurally damaging” shaking) over four timeframes (10, 25, 50 and 100 years). Results are based on the latest Geological Survey of Canada hazard models used for the 2010 national building code and are presented in both tabular and graphic formats. This simplified earthquake hazard information is offered to aid local residents, organizations and governments in understanding and assessing their risk and to encourage and facilitate sound earthquake preparedness funding decisions.     

Holocene alluviation and land-use change on Callaly Moor,Northumberland, England

Archaeological survey and palaeoenvironmental investigations in Coe Burn, Callaly Moor, Northumberland, have examined the chronology and nature of prehistoric and historic land-use change in a small upland river catchment. These studies have revealed an intensively used landscape with evidence of late Neolithic to Bronze Age, medieval and post-medieval land use and settlement. Two episodes of valley floor alluviation are identified and dated to the middle-late Bronze Age and post-medieval periods. Magnetic mineral and geochemical analyses of fine sediments from the older alluvial fill show it to contain a high proportion of topsoil, which is believed to have been produced by soil erosion resulting from Bronze Age tree clearance and cultivation. Deposition of the younger alluvial fill (post AD 1500) was associated with the inwash of relatively unweathered bedrock generated by coal mining in the catchment. It is demonstrated that by integrating archaeological field survey with off-site palaeoenvironmental investigations a much fuller picture of human activity and land-use change has emerged than otherwise would have been the case. Studies of this type may be particularly useful in other upland river catchments where archaeological survival is limited or poor.     

Example of a debris-flow risk analysis from Vancouver Island,British Columbia,Canada

In July 2005, a debris flow and a water flood occurred on two adjacent gullies in the White River area, on northern Vancouver Island in British Columbia, Canada. The 16,000 m³ debris flow buried approximately 7.5 ha of second-growth trees, buried approximately 500 m of a forestry road, and reached two fish-bearing streams. The water flood eroded approximately 240 m of the same forestry road and plugged four culverts before overtopping and inundating the road. To better plan for future events, risk analyses of debris flows, debris floods, and water floods were carried out for the two gullies involved, plus a third adjacent gully. The elements at risk that were analyzed included, in order of priority: users of the forestry road, the fish-bearing streams, the forestry road itself, and a timber bridge. Using a series of qualitative, but defined, relative-risk matrices, the following components of specific risk were estimated for each of the three types of events on each of the three gullies for each of the four elements at risk: probability of occurrence, probability that the event will reach or otherwise affect the site of the element at risk, the probability that the element at risk will be at the site when the event occurs, and the probability of loss or damage resulting from the element being at the site when the event occurs.     

加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚省温哥华岛纳奈莫群的帆翼龙类化石

An unusual jaw found in a calcite nodule from Collishaw Point, Hornby Island, British Columbia (off the east coast of Vancouver Island) represents the first definitive pterosaur found in British Columbia, and the first istiodactylid from Canada.     

Pollen indicators of land-use change in southern Connecticut

Changes in fossil pollen assemblages from a 2-m core from Linsley Pond, North Branford, Connecticut, are compared with historically documented land use changes in the lake watershed. Dating with ²¹⁰Pb and ¹⁴C reveals two sedimentation rate changes in the core which are associated with the arrival of European farmers; the building of cabins and suburban housing subdivisions on the lake shore. At European settlement in 1700 Ambrosia and Rumex pollen first appear, Gramineae-type pollen increases, and Tsuga decreases. Just before the beginning of agricultural disturbance Fagus pollen declines. The chestnut blight of 1913 causes a reduction of Castanea pollen and a subsequent vegetational succession through Betula to Quercus. The sedimentation rate determined by the chestnut blight horizon is consistent with the rate deduced from ²¹⁰Pb analysis.     

Late Quaternary dynamics of forest vegetation on northern Vancouver Island,British Columbia,Canada

Pollen analysis of radiocarbon-dated lake sediment from northern Vancouver Island, southwest British Columbia reveals regional changes in forest vegetation over the last 12,200 ¹⁴C yr (14,900 cal yr). Between at least 12,200 and 11,700 ¹⁴C yr BP (14,900–13,930 cal yr BP), open woodlands were dominated by Pinus contorta, Alnus crispa, and various ferns. As P. contorta decreased in abundance, Alnus rubra and more shade-tolerant conifers (i.e., Picea and Tsuga mertensiana) increased. Increases in T. mertensiana, P. contorta, and A. crispa pollen accumulation rates (PARs) between 10,600 and 10,400 ¹⁴C yr BP (11,660–11,480 cal yr BP) reflect a cool and moist climate during the Younger Dryas chronozone. Orbitally induced warming around 10,000 ¹⁴C yr BP (11,090 cal yr BP) allowed the northward extension of Pseudotsuga menziesii, although Picea, Tsuga heterophylla, and A. rubra dominated early Holocene forests. By 7500 ¹⁴C yr BP (8215 cal yr BP), shade-tolerant T. heterophylla was the dominant forest tree. Cupressaceae (Thuja plicata and Chamaecyparis nootkatensis) was present by 7500 ¹⁴C yr BP but reached its maximum after 3500 ¹⁴C yr BP (3600 cal yr BP), when a cooler and wetter regional climate facilitated the development of temperate rainforest. The highest rates of vegetation change are associated with Lateglacial climate change and species with rapid growth rates and short life spans.     

Endolithic biodegradation of cool-water skeletal carbonates on Scott shelf, northwestern Vancouver Island, Canada

Biodegradation of shell material is widespread in the cool-water skeletal carbonate deposits on Scott shelf, northwestern Vancouver Island, and is especially evident in the large aragonitic bivalves, Glycymeris and Humilaria, major primary sediment contributors. Ten types of endolithic microborings have been identified in the shells, including representatives of green algae (e.g., Ostreobium quekettii), blue-green algae (e.g., Plectonema terebrans, ?Scytonema sp.), fungi, bacteria and clionid sponges, as well as macroborings of phoronids, polychaetes and naticid gatropods. Microcrystalline carbonate is not precipitated in vacated bores. Boring physically weakens the shells, rendering them more prone to mechanical abrasion during sediment transport and bioturbation, and to biological abrasion by grazing benthos. Tumbling experiments demonstrate that the rate of carbonate mud production is much greater for bored as compared to fresh bivalve shells, and that mud production rates decrease with tumbling time because most endolithic microborings are confined to the periphery of grains. Boring also increases significantly the porosity and surface area of skeletal grains, and destroys their organic matrix, making them susceptible to maceration and dissolution on cool-water shelves. Fostered by the generally low rates of carbonate production and accumulation, many aragonitic bivalve shells on Scott shelf have become thoroughly degraded through a combination of endolithic microboring, maceration and dissolution within about 1000 years in ambient sea water. In geologic terms, such selective taphonomic loss of skeletal material may be considerable in ancient temperate-shelf limestones and should be evaluated when interpreting their paleoecology and paleoenvironments.     

Record of large, Late Pleistocene outburst floods preserved in Saanich Inlet sediments, Vancouver Island, Canada

Two anomalous, gray, silty clay beds are present in ODP cores collected from Saanich Inlet, Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada. The beds, which date to about 10,500 ¹⁴C yr BP (11,000 calendar years BP), contain Tertiary pollen derived from sedimentary rocks found only in the Fraser Lowland, on the mainland of British Columbia and Washington just east of the Strait of Georgia. Abundant illite-muscovite in the sediments supports a Fraser Lowland provenance.The clay beds are probably distal deposits of huge floods that swept through the Fraser Lowland at the end of the Pleistocene. Muddy overflow plumes from these floods crossed the Strait of Georgia and entered Saanich Inlet, where the sediment settled from suspension and blanketed diatom-rich mud on the fiord floor. The likely source of the floods is Late Pleistocene, ice-dammed lakes in the Fraser and Thompson valleys, which are known to have drained at about the time the floods occurred.     

A regional real-time debris-flow warning system for the District of North Vancouver, Canada

Engineered (structural) debris-flow mitigation for all creeks with elements at risk and subject to debris flows is often outside of the financial capability of the regulating government, and heavy task-specific taxation may be politically undesirable. Structural debris-flow mitigation may only be achieved over long (decadal scale) time periods. Where immediate structural mitigation is cost-prohibitive, an interim solution can be identified to manage residual risk. This can be achieved by implementing a debris-flow warning system that enables residents to reduce their personal risk for loss of life through timely evacuation. This paper describes Canada??s first real-time debris-flow warning system which has been operated for 2 years for the District of North Vancouver. The system was developed based on discriminant function analyses of 20 hydrometric input variables consisting of antecedent rainfall and storm rainfall intensities for a total of 63 storms. Of these 27 resulted in shallow landslides and subsequent debris flows, while 36 storms were sampled that did not reportedly result in debris flows. The discriminant function analysis identified as the three most significant variables: the 4-week antecedent rainfall, the 2-day antecedent rainfall, and the 48-h rainfall intensity during the landslide-triggering storm. Discriminant functions were developed and tested for robustness against a nearby rain gauge dataset. The resulting classification functions provide a measure for the likelihood of debris-flow initiation. Several system complexities were added to render the classification functions into a usable and defensible warning system. This involved the addition of various functionality criteria such as not skipping warning levels, providing sufficient warning time before debris flows would occur, and hourly adjustment of actual rainfall vs. predicted rainfall since predicted rainfall is not error-free. After numerous iterations that involved warning threshold and cancelation refinements and further model calibrations, an optimal solution was found that best matches the actual debris-flow data record. Back-calculation of the model??s 21-year record confirmed that 76% of all debris flows would have occurred during warning or severe warning levels. Adding the past 2 years of system operation, this percentage increases marginally to 77%. With respect to the District of North Vancouver boundaries, all debris flows occur during Warning and Severe Warnings emphasizing the validity of the system to the area for which it was intended. To operate the system, real-time rainfall data are obtained from a rain gauge in the District of North Vancouver. Antecedent rainfall is automatically calculated as a sliding time window for the 4-week and 2-day periods every hour. The predicted 48-h storm rainfall data are provided by the Geophysical Disaster Computational Fluid Dynamics Centre at the Earth and Ocean Science Department at the University of British Columbia and is updated every hour as rainfall is recorded during a given storm. The warning system differentiates five different stages: no watch, watch level 1 (the warning level is unlikely to be reached), watch level 2 (the warning level is likely to be reached), warning, and severe warning. The debris-flow warning system has operated from October 1, 2009 to April 30, 2010 and October 1, 2010 and April 30, 2011. Fortunately, we were able to evaluate model performance because the exact times of debris flows during November 2009 and January 2010 were recorded. In both cases, the debris flows did not only occur during the warning level but coincided with peaks in the warning graphs. Furthermore, four debris flows occurred during a warning period in November 2009 in the Metro Vancouver watershed though their exact time of day is unknown. The warning level was reached 13 times, and in four of these cases, debris flows were recorded in the study area. One debris flow was recorded during watch II level. There was no severe warning during the 2 years of operation. The current warning level during the wet season (October to April) is accessible via District of North Vancouver??s homepage (www.dnv.org) and by automated telephone message during the rainy season.     

Geochemical relation between gas hydrates and water venting in the seismic blanking zone on the northern Cascadia continental margin offshore Vancouver Island, Canada

The isotopic composition (δD and δ¹⁸O) and chloride concentration (Cl⁻) of pore waters from the northern Cascadia continental margin offshore Vancouver Island were measured to characterize the relations between the water flow regime and the distribution, formation and dissociation of gas hydrates. The δD values of pore waters in gas hydrate-bearing sediments are slightly higher ( 1‰) than those of seawater as the result of gas hydrate dissociation during core recovery and handling. Within the seismic blanking zone, the δD values were slightly lower (− 1‰) than values measured from sites outside the blanking area (0‰). We attribute these differences to 1) distillation of D-rich water during hydrate formation in the center of the blanking zone and 2) limited migration of pore water between inside and outside of the blanking zone due to different fluid fluxes. In contrast, the δ¹⁸O values and Cl⁻ concentrations do not show significant spatial variation due to decreased isotopic fractionation of oxygen and small fraction of chloride relative to hydrogen isotope during gas hydrate formation. The δD value of pore water, therefore, appears to be a sensitive indicator of gas hydrate occurrence. We estimate that gas hydrate occupied at least 2.0 to 6.3% of sediment pore space using δD distribution in this area.     

Effects of urban development on future multi-hazard risk: the case of Vancouver,Canada

Natural Hazards - Disaster risk reduction should anticipate how future natural hazard risk would be influenced by changes in urban vulnerability. This paper investigates the effect of one key...