A sensitivity analysis for universal kriging

Universal kriging is an interpolation method for producing contour maps from irregularly spaced sample points, taking into account the trend (or polynomial drift), which is of known form. It assumes a known covariance model to express correlation of points a short distance apart. A sensitivity analysis examines how the fitted surface will change for given perturbations in the covariance model. We develop a simple approximate analysis in preference to exact analysis and show that it is adequate for small perturbations. For large data sets, a dramatic reduction in computer time is possible using approximate analysis. Possible extensions of this work are noted.     

Is the outcrop topology of dolerite dikes of the Precambrian Singhbhum Craton fractal?

In the Precambrian Singhbhum Craton of eastern India, newer dolerite dikes occur profusely with varying outcrop lengths. We have analysed the nature of their length-size and orientation distributions in relation to the theory of fractals. Two orientational sets of dikes (NW-SE and NE-SW) are present. Both the sets show strongly non-power-law size distributions, as reflected in non-linear variations in logarithmic space. We analyzed thousands of data, revealing that polynomial functions with a degree of 3 to 4 are the best representatives of the non-linear variations. Orientation analysis shows that the degree of dispersions from the mean trend tends to decrease with increasing dike length. The length-size distributions were studied by simulating fractures in physical models. Experimental fractures also show a non-power-law distribution, which grossly conforms to those of the dolerite dikes. This type of complex size distributions results from the combined effects of nucleation, propagation and coalescence of fractures.     

Estimation of semivariogram parameters and evaluation of the effects of data sparsity

Semivariogram parameters are estimated by a weighted least-squares method and a jackknife kriging method. The weighted least-squares method is investigated by differing the lag increment and maximum lag used in the fit. The jackknife kriging method minimizes the variance of the jackknifing error as a function of semivariogram parameters. The effects of data sparsity and the presence of a trend are investigated by using 400-, 200-, and 100-point synthetic data sets. When the two methods yield significantly different results, more data may be needed to determine reliably the semivariogram parameters, or a trend may be present in the data.     

地震属性分析中水平切片的应用

利用地震数据体中含有的丰富地质信息,可以有效地进行储层预测。层拉平水平切片地层学解释方法是先将地震剖面目的层段做层拉平处理,然后对切片顺地层层面追踪,勾绘出各种地层现象,并以地层学的观点加以解释。该方法在吉林探区扶新南部地区的应用中,对于识别河道的展布趋势取得了较好的效果,而且发现了多期叠置的扇型沉积体。另外,还可指导反演数据体的解释,做到对岩性体从定性到定量的描述。     

A lineaments study of southern Norway and adjacent off-shore areas

Lineament maps based on Landsat, geological and aeromagnetic data on land, and aeromagnetic, gravity and seismic reflection data at sea have been studied to determine the main lineament trends on land and off-shore in southern Norway.On land there are three main structural trends (NE-SW, NW-SE and N-S) as well as a fourth, weaker trend (E-W). These four trends are thought to represent fracture patterns of Precambrian age.In the off-shore part of the study area, the same four trends are shown by the aeromagnetic data. (The gravity data yield unsatisfactory results for which the reasons are given.) It is therefore concluded that the same type of crystalline basement that is exposed on land also underlies the off-shore area.It is argued that these Precambrian structural trends have also pre-determined lines of weakness in Phanerozoic times. Fracture sets in the Norwegian Caledonides may provide an example of large-scale re-activation of the NE-SW structural trend, and the Viking and Oslo Grabens of the re-activation of the N-S trend.On a smaller scale, and in the off-shore part of the study area, it is likely that a re-activation of the NE-SW structural trend has played a role in the formation of the Ling Graben, the NW-SE trend in the origin of the Sele and Flekkefjord Highs, the N-S trend in the formation of the Lista Nose, and the E-W trend in the formation of the Farsund Sub-basin.     

Progressive grain-size sorting along an intertidal energy gradient

Along a 2 km NW-SE transect along the energy gradient of an intertidal sand body of the back-barrier tidal flats of Spiekeroog island (German Wadden Sea, southern North Sea), three sets of closely spaced surface sediment samples were taken at different times to investigate whether the effects of progressive size sorting could be identified in the textural parameters and size-frequency curves of the sediments. Grain-sizes analyses were carried out with a high-resolution settling tube having an internal resolution of 1/50-psi intervals. The settling velocity data were subsequently transformed numerically into equivalent settling diameters on the basis of a quartz sphere standard. At this high resolution, it was possible to visualize subtle changes in textural parameters which would not have been resolved by standard 0.25-phi sieve analyses. The first two sample sets of 1992 and 1994 show similar trends of progressive fining in the sediment, combined with a slight decrease in skewness and sorting in the direction of decreasing energy. Ten years later, in 2003, the sediments were slightly coarser but still reflected the hydrodynamic energy gradient by a distinct fining trend along the transect. However, in contrast to the former data sets, the skewness values now remained constant, whereas the sorting values revealed the existence of two overlapping hydrodynamic energy regimes on the tidal flat. The better sorting in the coarser size fractions and the general coarsening trend in the central part of the tidal flat are interpreted to reflect an increase in the hydrodynamic energy level since the first two sample sets were collected. This observation suggests that some of the finer particles in the grain-size spectrum on the tidal flat were winnowed out by wave action without, however, completely obliterating the former trend. This interpretation is supported by an increase in the frequency and duration of strong winds as recorded by the national weather bureau since the early 1990s. The results of the study demonstrate that the intertidal sediments of the Wadden Sea respond rapidly and sensitively to gradual changes in the hydrodynamic energy regime.     

灰色理论模型在矿区滑坡变形预测中的应用

灰色理论模型具有利用“少数据”、“小样本”的优点,使得其在滑坡预测分析中显示出极大的优势。利用矿区滑坡监测数据建立起GM(1, 1)模型,通过数据对比、验证和分析,证明了灰色理论模型能更好的反映观测目标的变形趋势。      

Ozone trends in the vertical structure of Upper Troposphere and Lower stratosphere over the Indian monsoon region

Ozone trends in the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere over the Indian region are investigated using three satellite data sets namely Halogen Occultation Experiment (1993–2005), Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (1993–2005) II, and Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS, 2005–2011). Estimated ozone trends using multi-variate regression analysis are compared with trends at two Indian ozonesonde stations (Delhi, 28°N, 77°E and Pune, 18°N, 73°E), and a 3-D Chemical Transport Model (CTM, SLIMCAT) for the 1993–2005 time period. Overall, all the observational data sets and model simulations indicate significant increasing trend in the upper troposphere (0–2.5 %/year). In the lower stratosphere, estimated trends are slightly positive up to 30 mb and are negative between 30 and 10 mb. Increasing trends in the upper troposphere is probably due to increasing trends in the tropospheric ozone precursor gases (e.g. CO, NO _x , NMHCs). Here, we argue that these contrasting ozone-trend profiles might be partially responsible for insignificant long-term trends in the tropical total column ozone. On seasonal scale, positive trends are observed during all the seasons in the upper troposphere while structure of trend profile varies in lower stratosphere. Seasonal variations of ozone trends and its linkages with stratospheric intrusions and increasing trends in lightning flashes in the troposphere are also discussed.     

GIS-based landslide susceptibility mapping using bivariate statistical analysis in Devrek (Zonguldak-Turkey)

Devrek town with increasing population is located in a hillslope area where some landslides exist. Therefore, landslide susceptibility map of the area is required. The purpose of this study was to generate a landslide susceptibility map using a bivariate statistical index and evaluate and compare the results of the statistical analysis conducted with three different approaches in seed cell concept resulting in different data sets in Geographical Information Systems (GIS) based landslide susceptibility mapping applied to the Devrek region. The data sets are created from the seed cells of (a) crowns and flanks, (b) only crowns, and (c) only flanks of the landslides by using ten different causative parameters of the study area. To increase the data dependency of the analysis, all parameter maps are classified into equal frequency classes based directly on the percentile divisions of each corresponding seed cell data set. The resultant maps of the landslide susceptibility analysis indicate that all data sets produce fairly acceptable results. In each data set analysis, elevation, lithology, slope, aspect, and drainage density parameters are found to be the most contributing factors in landslide occurrences. The results of the three data sets are compared using Seed Cell Area Indexes (SCAI). This comparison shows that the crown data set produces the most accurate and successful landslide susceptibility map of the study area.     

Searching for long cycles in short sections

Long sedimentary cycles with periods of 400 thousand to two million years are difficult to establish. The main reasons are a lack of stationarity in stratigraphic time series and unknown changes in sedimentation rates. Filtering, trend removal and time scale transformations can help to interpret stratigraphic sequences, but the application of any such method has to be justified by geological arguments. The effects of filtering, scale transformation and trend removal are explored using sets of field data from the Carboniferous (NW Ireland), the Cretaceous (Gubbio, Italy) and Pliocene (Sicily). Their location and stratigraphy are described.     

Neural network based prediction of ground surface settlements due to tunnelling

Ground surface settlement due to tunnel excavation varies in magnitude and trend depending on several factors such as tunnel geometry, ground conditions, etc. Although there are several empirical and semi-empirical formulae available for predicting ground surface settlement, most of these do not simultaneously take into consideration all the relevant factors, resulting in inaccurate predictions. In this study, an artificial neural network (ANN) is incorporated with '113' of monitored field results to predict surface settlement for a tunnel site with prescribed conditions. To achieve this, a standard format (a protocol) for a database of monitored field data is first proposed and then used for sorting out a variety of monitored data sets available in KICT. Using the capabilities of pattern recognition and memorization of the ANN, an attempt is made to capture the rich physical characteristics smeared in the database and at the same time filter inherent noise in the monitored data. Here, an optimal neural network model is suggested through preliminary parametric studies. It is shown that preliminary studies for generating an optimal ANN under given training data sets are necessary because no analytical method for this purpose is available to date. In addition, this study introduces a concept of relative strength of effects (RSE) [Yang Y, Zhang Q. A heirarchical analysis for rock engineering using artificial neural networks. Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering 1997; 30(4): 207–22] in sensitivity analysis for various major factors affecting the surface settlement in tunnelling. It is seen in some examples that the RSE rationally enables us to recognize the most significant factors of all the contributing factors. Two verification examples are undertaken with the trained ANN using the database created in this study. It is shown from the examples that the ANN has adequately recognized the characteristics of the monitored data sets retaining a generality for further prediction. It is believed that an ANN based hierarchical prediction procedure shown in this paper can be further employed in many kinds of geotechnical engineering problems with inherent uncertainties and imperfections.     

利用BP神经网络进行水库滑坡变形预测

滑坡变形监测与预测是滑坡预警预报中一种非常重要的途径。文章首先简单介绍了神经网络的基本原理和学习算法,然后利用某水库滑坡24期的GPS地表位移监测数据及其诱发因素即水库水位、降雨等资料,采用BP神经网络模型对该水库滑坡变形进行建模,最后将6期水库水位、降雨等资料输入模型进行滑坡变形预测,结果表明预测结果与实测数据符合性好,总体上能较好反映变形趋势。     

Accounting for spatial patterns of multiple geological data sets in geological thematic mapping using GIS-based spatial analysis

This paper presents a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based spatial analysis scheme to account for spatial patterns and association in geological thematic mapping with multiple geological data sets. The multi-buffer zone analysis, the main part of the present study, was addressed to reveal the spatial pattern around geological source primitives and statistical analysis based on a contingency table was performed to extract information for the assessment of an integrated layer. Mineral potential mapping using multiple geological data sets from Ogdong in Korea was carried out to illustrate application of this methodology. The results obtained from the case study indicated that some geochemical elements and residual magnetic anomaly dominantly affected spatial patterns of the mineral potential map in the study area and the dominant classes of input data layers were also extracted. This information on spatial patterns of multiple geological data sets around mines could be used as effective evidences for the interpretation of the integrated layer within GIS.     

Kinematic significance of fold- and fault-related fracture systems in the Zagros mountains, southern Iran

Initiation and formation of folds and the Kazerun high-angle fault zone, in the Zagros fold-and-thrust belt, were related to the continuing SW–NE oriented contraction that probably initiated in the Late Cretaceous, and intensified, starting in Miocene, when the Arabian and Eurasian plates collided. The contraction that led to folding and thrusting of the Phanerozoic sequence in the belt has led to the strike–slip reactivation of basement faults that formed during the Precambrian. Two major systems of fractures have developed, under the same regional state of contraction, during the folding and strike–slip faulting processes. Folding led to the formation of a system of fold-related fractures that comprises four sets of fractures, which include an axial and a cross-axial set that trend parallel and perpendicular to the confining fold axial trace, respectively, and two oblique sets that trend at moderate angles to the axial trace. Slip along high-angle, strike–slip faults formed a system of fractures in the damage zone of the faults (e.g., Kazerun), and deformed folds that existed in the shear zone by rotating their axial plane. This fault-related fracture system is made of five sets of fractures, which include the two sets of Riedel shear fractures (R and R′), P- and Y-shear fractures, and an extensional set.

Remote sensing analysis of both fracture systems, in a GIS environment, reveals a related kinematic history for folding outside of the Kazerun shear zone and faulting and deformation (fracturing and rotation of folds) within the Kazerun fault zone. Rotation of the folds and formation of the five sets of the fault-related fractures in the Kazerun shear zone are consistent with a dextral motion along the fault. The mean trends of the shortening directions, independently calculated for the fold- and fault-related fracture systems, are remarkably close (N53 ± 4°E and N50 ± 5°E, respectively), and are perpendicular to the general NW–SE trend of the Zagros fold-and-thrust belt. Although segments of the Kazerun fault are variably oriented within a narrow range, the angular relationships between sets of fault-related fractures and these segments remain constant.     

浙江省龙游县北部土壤中植物营养元素动态变化研究

土壤中植物营养元素含量及其平衡状况对作物生长有重要影响。识别判断土壤中营养元素的时空变化趋势是土地质量地球化学监测的重要任务。利用浙江省龙游县北部地区2008年与2014年两期区域土壤地球化学调查数据,在对分析测试系统误差进行校正之后,采用统计分析与空间分析的方法,研究土壤中重要营养元素含量与空间分布的变化特征。结果表明,整体上大量营养元素N、K2O的含量有所降低,其净相对累积率分别为-4.40%和-13.81%;营养元素B和P的含量变化幅度很小;土壤中植物营养元素累积变化受土壤类型和土地利用类型的影响,不同土壤类型和土地利用现状下,营养元素相对累积率存在差异。如水田土壤N呈明显的富集趋势,林地、菜地、旱地等土地利用方式下土壤N呈贫化趋势;菜地、园地、旱地土壤P具有较明显的富集趋势,而水田土壤P呈贫化趋势。     

山东半岛2000～2014年蒸散发时空分异特征

蒸散发的时空格局分析对于合理利用水资源、水资源短缺问题的解决以及旱涝灾害预警和监测具有重要意义。基于山东半岛区域气象资料、MOD16遥感影像数据集及GIS背景信息,分析了山东半岛20002014年地表蒸散量的时空变化特征及趋势,并在年时间尺度上通过基于像元的相关分析法分析了蒸散量与降水和气温的相关性。研究结果表明:在研究时段内平均蒸散量年际波动较大,波动范围为397.9479.8mm,多年蒸散平均值为440.78mm;其中2003年和2008年蒸散量最大,分别超出平均值77.3mm和81.9mm。除水体、滨海湿地外,ET年平均值有明显的由东南向西北递减的特征,降水量和地表植被覆盖度的差异是其空间变异的主要因素。蒸散量与气象因素的相关分析表明,年平均降水量与蒸散量变化呈现明显的正相关关系（0.663）,温度与蒸散量呈显著负相关关系（-0.143）,NDVI与蒸散量相关性较弱（0.33）。     

分离重力区域场与局部场的Matlab趋势分析法

趋势分析法作为场分离的一种方法,当地形情况复杂、测区面积较大时,往往很难达到场分离的要求。文章通过改变多项式数学模型的阶次,选择最优的多项式数学模型进行趋势分析。通过对剖面趋势分析和曲面趋势分析的对比得知,在同一地质模型上剖面趋势分析效果较曲面趋势分析效果好,由此运用切割法将叠加异常数据直接截取,获得多个剖面进行趋势分析,再由剖面趋势分析得到曲面趋势分析。实验结果表明趋势分析效果理想,能达到场分离的要求。     

The sulfur and strontium isotopic compositions of Permian evaporites from the Zechstein basin, northern Germany

The sulfur isotopic composition of stratigraphically well constrained samples from five evaporitic cycles of the German Zechstein (upper Permian) displays no systematic lateral variation and no significant temporal trend. With an average δ³⁴S value close to 11‰, results confirm the previously determined sulfur isotope minimum for Phanerozoic seawater. Least radiogenic ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios for these sulfates define a clear temporal variation with a minimum value at 0.707008. A conclusive assessment of this temporal trend in comparison with other data sets for upper Permian seawater is not possible due to substantial differences in (bio)stratigraphic assignments.     

Selective gravel entrainment and the empirical evaluation of flow competence

The concept of flow competence is generally employed to evaluate velocities and bed stresses of river floods from the sizes of the largest sediment particles transported. For the most part, this evaluation has been empirical, combining data from a number of separate flood events in different river systems. Those data are re-examined and compared with empirical equations for the selective entrainment of gravel from deposits of mixed sizes. It is found that the competence relationships trend counter to those obtained for selective entrainment, indicating that the competence evaluations are affected by varying degrees of selective size entrainment. Individual data sets which have been employed to establish the flow-competence relationships either show no trend on their own or yield a trend which runs counter to the competence equation, instead being more compatible with the selective-entrainment relationships. In most instances, the empirical competence equations greatly overestimate the hydraulics of flood flows, and it is suggested that the better established selective entrainment equations be used for competence evaluations as well. Empirical equations are available for this purpose, relating the dimensionless Shields entrainment function or the bed shear stress to the diameter of the largest grain moved and to the median diameter of the deposit as a whole.     

胶南晚中生代大珠花岗岩岩体的脆性变形机制

在长期变化的构造应力作用下,胶南大珠山花岗岩岩体自早白垩世冷凝冷却以来发生强烈的脆性破裂变形,形成了多样的破裂类型如岩脉、节理和断层。在该岩体冷凝冷却早期侵入的细晶花岗岩脉和稍后形成的N-S向节理组反映出与同期区域构造应力场协调的N-S向挤压作用,而后伴随着揭顶剥蚀,出现了交替变化的构造应力场形成了岩体内主导的NW-NNW向和NE向节理组。整体上,恢复出的岩体内构造应力场发生顺时针方向旋转,最大水平挤压由早期的N-S向偏转为晚期的近E-W向。构造应力场的长期变化、平行节理作用和节理断层化作用造成了研究区复杂的破裂型式和破裂序列。