基于田间试验的土壤水分运动模型选择

基于不同形式Richards方程可建立不同适用范围和计算精度的数值模型,针对具体情况下如何选择合适模型的问题,以武汉大学农田水利试验场田间入渗试验为例,选用6种模型(Picard-h模型、Picard-θ模型、Picard-mix模型、Ross模型、动力波模型和水均衡模型),运用贝叶斯模型平均(BMA)方法进行了模型选择的计算;针对BMA方法无法考虑模型计算效率的缺点,进一步提出了可同时考虑模型计算精度与计算效率的改进BMA方法。计算结果表明,在本田间尺度问题中,Ross模型排序最高,说明其兼具高精度与高效率,改进BMA方法可增加高计算效率模型被选中的概率,使模型选择更加全面合理。     

西藏拉萨河现代河漫滩及一级阶地沉积物植硅体组合特征

摘　要　通过测制西藏拉萨桑达乡第四系剖面,系统采集并分析了植硅体样品,根据植硅体的形态分类及组合、温暖指数等特征,划分为５个植硅体组合带:组合带Ⅰ为齿型—平滑棒型、石屑型、网脊块状,反映气温温凉;组合带Ⅱ为长方型—平滑棒型、多面体型,显示气候转暖;组合带Ⅲ为长方型、齿型—平滑棒型组合带,显示气候干旱的特点;组合带Ⅳ为长方型—亚铃型、齿型—平滑棒型、多面体型组合带,反映此时气候温暖潮湿;组合带Ⅴ为齿型、帽—平滑棒型、多面体型、石屑组合带,显示气候寒冷的特点。最后在总结分析该区植硅体特征的基础上,对拉萨桑达地区第四纪古植被、古环境进行了探讨。     

中国岩金矿床品位-吨位模型研究

矿床品位-吨位模型研究属于学科前沿领域, 它是系统勘查理论的重要组成部分.依据1997年全国矿产储量数据库资料, 对全国680个岩金矿床建立了地质模型、品位模型、吨位模型、吨-品位联合模型, 以及中国石英脉型金矿床吨位序列模型.模型类型包括频率直方图、累积频率分布图及双对数坐标表示的理论分布模型.分别总结了我国岩金矿床的品位及吨位分布的典型数学地质特征, 并探讨了吨位序列模型在资源预测评价中的意义和作用.      

Simulation of groundwater flow in fractured rocks using a coupled model based on the method of domain decomposition

Groundwater flow in fractured rocks is modeled using a coupled model based on the domain decomposition method. In the model, the fractured porous medium is divided into two non-overlapping sub-domains. One is the rock matrix, in which the medium is described using a continuum model. The other consists of deep fractures and fissure zones, where the medium is described using a discrete fracture network (DFN) model. The two models are coupled through the continuity of the hydraulic heads and fluxes on the common boundaries. The coupled model is used to simulate groundwater flow in a hydropower station. The results show that the model simulates groundwater levels that are in agreement with the measured groundwater levels. Furthermore, the model’s parameters relating to deep fractures and fissure zones are verified by comparing three different models (the continuum model, coupled model, and DFN model). The results show that the coupled model can capture and duplicate the hydrogeological conditions in the study domain, whereas the continuum model overestimates and the DFN model underestimates the measured hydraulic heads. A sensitivity analysis shows that fracture aperture has a considerable effect on the groundwater level. So, when the fracture aperture is large, the coupled model or DFN model is more appropriate than the continuum model in the fracture domain.     

Evaluation of alternative conceptual models for groundwater modelling

This study evaluates the alternative conceptual models for groundwater modelling. A true model was created with a synthetic alluvial fan-plain hydrogeological framework. Various alternative conceptual models were evaluated for groundwater flow simulations. The first alternative model is a single aquifer layer model; the second alternative model is a 3-layer aquifer model; and the third model is a 5-layer model consisting of 3 aquifers separated by 2 aquitards. All models could fit very well to the observations with optimized values of hydraulic conductivities. However, the single aquifer layer model can only compute water balance components with good accuracy. The 3-layer aquifer model can be used for water balance computation and groundwater head simulation with small errors. The 5-layer model is capable of simulating water budget, groundwater head distribution and travel times with high accuracy. Multi-model analysis found only the 3rd alternative model superior.     

IHACRES模型在无资料地区径流模拟中的应用研究

IHACRES模型以单位线为基础,结构简单、概念明确、优选参数少,在国外已被广泛研究和应用,并认为是一个相当成功的流域水文模型。选择石门、高关、白云山水库流域以及汉江支流牧马河四个流域,假定其中一个流域有实测资料,对模型进行参数优选之后移用于其它流域,分别运用 IHACRES模型和新安江模型进行径流模拟。结果表明,IHACRES模型模拟精度高于新安江模型, 对无资料地区的径流模拟更为适用。     

全过程沉降预测的新模型与方法

地面沉降是普通存在的一种环境灾害为此提出了一种新模型,它概括了泊松曲线模型与Verhulst模型,能准确预测全过程沉降量的变化规律。提出了将非线性回归与3次样条插值相结合求解新模型的思路与方法,突破了泊松曲线模型所用三段计算法的局限。实例分析结果表明：所提出的方法能准确地求得非线性模型的解;新模型及方法与Verhulst模型及方法相比,能使模型计算值与实测值之间的残差大幅度减小。新模型为岩土工程设计提供了新的科学依据。     

Stein estimation for SIR-predictable models of earthquake occurrence

It is usually accepted that a time-predictable model of earthquake occurrences is better than the so-called slip-predictable model. Here a size-interval relation (SIR)-predictable model is proposed which combines the features of the time-predictable and slip-predictable models. Unlike a constant, and hence nonpredictive, relation between the size of the next earthquake and the inter-event interval, given by the so-called slip-predictable model, the SIR-predictable model prescribes such a relation contingent upon the size of the previous earthquake. Unlike the time-predictable model, instead of predicting the time interval, it proposes a size-interval relation. Using data about a seismogenic source called Cephalonia in Greece, the superiority of the SIR-predictable model over the time-predictable model is illustrated. The SIR-predictable model can be made more efficient by employing two-stage nonlinear estimation procedures motivated by the initial work by Stein. Introducing these procedures to seismologists is an independent objective of this paper. Also, Stein estimators have a dimensionality threshold. This work discusses two techniques of threshold extension.     

Real‐scale miscible grout injection experiment and performance of advection–dispersion–filtration model

A model was developed, to describe miscible grout propagation in a saturated deformable porous medium, based on Bear's statistical model with spatial volume averaging. In a previous paper, the model was first successfully confronted to one‐dimensional laboratory experiments. In the present paper, the numerical model is used to simulate practical grouting operation in a cylindrical injection model. The cylindrical injection model lends itself to study main flow and propagation character istics for a dispersed suspension‐type grout, under axisymmetric conditions close to real scale conditions. Comparison between numerical solutions and experimental results is essential to confirm the validity and accuracy of the proposed model from a phenomenological standpoint. The numerical model performances show that the underlying mathematical model constitutes a realistic predictive model reproducing most prominent features during injection of a suspension‐type grout into a deformable porous medium. The basic mechanism by which injected miscible grout permeates a soil mass is discussed in detail. Such a tool leads to quality control criteria for grouting on a theoretical basis, which complements existing criteria acquired through engineering practice. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

降雨型浅层滑坡危险性预测模型

通过分析SHALSTAB和TRIGRS等浅层滑坡物理确定性模型存在的问题,提出了基于降雨入渗动态守恒的瞬态降雨入渗模型,该模型考虑了初期降雨过程、降雨历程以及饱和非饱和入渗过程,证明了SHALSTAB模型是该模型的特殊形式,并克服了TRIGRS模型参数繁多及一维入渗路径的问题.将无限边坡模型、瞬态降雨入渗模型和GIS进行耦合,研发了可用于大范围降雨型浅层滑坡危险性预测的集成系统,根据边坡的地质条件、地形参数和降雨特征即可对降雨条件下浅层滑坡的危险性进行评估.     

滑坡预报模型的质量检验研究

滑坡预报模型主要用来预报滑坡发生的时间,但是如何检验效果是滑坡预报者和决策者面临的一个重要课题。本文通过提出滑坡拟合效果指标(包括后验差指标、模型拟合效率指数和均方根误差)和试预报效果指标(包括试报效果指标和相关系数指标),初步建立了滑坡的预报质量检验模型。依据建立的检验模型,针对链子崖危岩体监测资料分别采用灰色GM(1,1)数学模型、三次指数平滑模型和时间序列模型进行预报。预报结果表明:三种模型中,综合指标GM(1,1)数值最高,建议该滑坡采用GM(1,1)进行预报。通过模型的综合分析评判,不仅分析了模拟效果,而且直接比较了模型间的拟合效果,并为建立模拟效果好的模型提供了充分的依据,从而表明滑坡预报质量检验模型是一种有效、实用的方法。     

New variogram modeling method using MGGP and SVR

A critical step for kriging in geostatistics is estimation of the variogram. Traditional variogram modeling comprise of the experimental variogram calculation, appropriate variogram model selection and model parameter determination. Selecting of the variogram model and fitting of model parameters is the most controversial aspect of geostatistics. Shapes of valid variogram models are finite, and sometimes, the optimal shape of the model can not be fitted, leading to reduced estimation accuracy. In this paper, a new method is presented to automatically construct a model shape and fit model parameters to experimental variograms using Support Vector Regression (SVR) and Multi-Gene Genetic Programming (MGGP). The proposed method does not require the selection of a variogram model and can directly provide the model shape and parameters of the optimal variogram. The validity of the proposed method is demonstrated in a number of cases.     

山西临汾市地下水动态预测模型灰色研究

本文提出了将非线性的维尔赫斯特（Ｖｅｒｈｕｌｓｔ）模型与线性的ＧＭ（１,１）残差分析模型结合起来的一种新的综合模型。该综合模型兼具有以上两种模型的优点。它将非线性与不断修正性有机结合起来。通过对山西临汾市地下水动态分析,发现运用综合模型具有较高的精确度,是一种较好的预测方法     

Modelling the time‐dependent behaviour of granular material with hypoplasticity

This paper presents a constitutive model for time‐dependent behaviour of granular material. The model consists of 2 parts representing the inviscid and viscous behaviour of granular materials. The inviscid part is a rate‐independent hypoplastic constitutive model. The viscous part is represented by a rheological model, which contains a high‐order term denoting the strain acceleration. The proposed model is validated by simulating some element tests on granular soils. Our model is able to model not only the non‐isotach behaviour but also the 3 creep stages, namely, primary, secondary, and tertiary creep, in a unified way.     

论生态经济型环境水利模式——走水利绿色道路

基于可持续发展思想,创导了一个名为生态经济型的环境水利模式,从热力学上讲这是一低熵模式,从哲学上讲这是一“天人合一”的模式。该模式中的环境水利学为近年来中国专家学者率先提出的全面系统研究水利与环境相互关系的新学科。对该模式中的8个方面进行了详尽的探讨。     

粗糙裂隙水、气两相流相对渗透系数模型与数值分析

粗糙裂隙水、气两相流相对渗透系数是岩体工程多相渗流以及水力耦合分析的重要参数。从粗糙裂隙的细观结构出发，基于毛细吸持理论和立方定理，提出了粗糙裂隙水、气两相流相对渗透系数模型。通过与具有不同空间分布的粗糙裂隙水、气两相流试验数据对比分析，验证了模型的准确性。为进一步验证理论模型对不同粗糙程度裂隙的适用性，基于SRAM与Invasion Percolation模型，提出了粗糙裂隙的开度分布生成以及水、气两相流数值分析方法，计算结果表明理论模型与数值数据基本吻合一致，且优于X模型、V-C模型以及Corey模型。     

Change of Support in Spatial Variance-Based Sensitivity Analysis

Variance-based global sensitivity analysis (GSA) is used to study how the variance of the output of a model can be apportioned to different sources of uncertainty in its inputs. GSA is an essential component of model building as it helps to identify model inputs that account for most of the model output variance. However, this approach is seldom applied to spatial models because it cannot describe how uncertainty propagation interacts with another key issue in spatial modeling: the issue of model upscaling, that is, a change of spatial support of model output. In many environmental models, the end user is interested in the spatial average or the sum of the model output over a given spatial unit (for example, the average porosity of a geological block). Under a change of spatial support, the relative contribution of uncertain model inputs to the variance of aggregated model output may change. We propose a simple formalism to discuss this issue within a GSA framework by defining point and block sensitivity indices. We show that the relative contribution of an uncertain spatially distributed model input increases with its correlation length and decreases with the size of the spatial unit considered for model output aggregation. The results are briefly illustrated by a simple example.     

4D-Var data assimilation system for a coupled physical-biological model

A 3-compartment model of phytoplankton growth dynamics has been coupled with a primitive-equation circulation model to better understand and quantify physical and biological processes in the Adriatic Sea. This paper presents the development and application of a data assimilation procedure based on optimal control theory. The aim of the procedure is to identify a set of model coefficient values that ensures the best fit between data and model results by minimizing a function that measures model and data discrepancies. In this sense, twin experiments have been successfully implemented in order to have a better estimation of biological model parameters and biological initial conditions.     

数字黑河的思考与实践3:模型集成

介绍了"数字黑河"模型集成研究的进展.①流域科学研究中的模型集成由发展流域集成模型和建模环境这2个主题所构成,前者可概括为"水-土-气-生-人"集成模型,后者是支持集成模型的高效开发的软件工具,注重于应用先进的信息技术为建模提供支撑.②将模型集成分为知识途径和技术途径,讨论了建模环境在模型集成中的作用,以及科学模型和流域管理模型的关系.③回顾了黑河流域模型集成的总体目标是发展两种类型的集成模型,其中第一种回应科学目标,是地球系统模型在流域尺度上的具体体现,以建成能够综合反映流域水文-生态-经济相互作用的模型为标志;第二种集成模型回应管理目标,以建成空间显式的流域水资源决策支持系统为目标.④对黑河流域已有的水文、地下水、水资源、陆面过程、土地利用、生态、社会经济与生态经济建模工作做了系统的综述.⑤分析了黑河流域集成模型研究中存在的问题和所面临的挑战.