冰冻圈变化的适应框架与战略体系

冰冻圈变化的适应研究是冰冻圈科学领域的新兴研究方向, 是当今全球变化研究中自然科学与社会科学交叉融合研究的典型代表。文章阐述了冰冻圈变化适应研究的内容框架, 分析了目前国际冰冻圈变化适应研究的现状、 动态与发展趋势。在此基础上, 从理论探索与实践研究两方面, 详细介绍了中国冰冻圈变化的适应研究。在理论与方法研究方面, 中国冰冻圈变化适应研究2007年起步至今, 已建立了由冰冻圈变化影响（冰冻圈服务和冰冻圈灾害）-风险-恢复力-适应构成的中国冰冻圈变化适应研究理论与方法体系; 在实践研究方面, 从致利与致害两条线, 开展了冰冻圈服务与冰冻圈灾害风险研究; 从冰冻圈与人类圈交互视角, 开展了冰冻圈变化的脆弱性、 恢复力与适应典型案例研究。未来, 一方面需进一步完善和深化现有理论体系, 尤其是冰冻圈与人类圈相耦合的灾害风险、 脆弱性与适应定量评估方法; 另一方面, 既要针对不同冰冻圈问题, 加强案例研究, 又要拓展尺度, 深入宏观研究, 为国家和地方政府决策提供科学依据与对策建议。     

自然科学基金资助下的我国冰冻圈科学发展

冰冻圈是指地球表层水以固态形式存在的圈层,包括冰川、冻土、积雪、海冰、河冰、湖冰等.作为一门新兴学科,冰冻圈科学研究其各组成部分的形成机理、演化规律、与其他圈层之间的相互作用,以及对经济社会的影响.在全球变暖背景下,冰冻圈研究受到前所未有的重视,成为气候系统研究中最活跃的领域之一,也是当前全球变化和可持续发展最关注的热点之一.中国是中低纬度地区冰冻圈最发育的国家,中国冰冻圈变化的气候效应、环境效应、水资源效应和生态效应非常显著,因此,对国家西部发展战略有重大意义.我国冰冻圈科学的发展与国家自然科学基金项目的支持息息相关,许多前瞻性、先导性、基础性的项目源自于基金项目的支持.国家自然科学基金在引领冰冻圈研究新领域和人才培养两方面起到了奠基和推动作用.着重回顾了在自然科学基金资助下我国冰冻圈科学的发展历程.     

冰冻圈变化及其影响研究的主要科学问题概论

冰冻圈变化及其影响日益显著并受到广泛关注。系统梳理了目前国际冰冻圈科学研究的主要关注热点,认为冰冻圈的变化机理、冰冻圈与气候相互作用、冰冻圈变化的影响与适应等构成了国际冰冻圈科学研究的4大科学问题。冰冻圈变化机理是冰冻圈科学研究的基础领域,冰冻圈与气候相互作用是当前着力加强的重点,冰冻圈变化的影响日益受到关注,但研究基础还较薄弱,冰冻圈变化影响的适应机制是尚处在萌芽状态的研究领域。围绕上述重大科学问题,紧抓冰冻圈变化过程中的动力响应与时空差异性问题,气候模式中冰冻圈过程的精细化描述问题,准确认识影响的时空尺度与程度问题和脆弱性评价方法和指标体系等科学问题,是寻求科学突破的关键。以全球的视野审视冰冻圈的变化过程,从有机耦合的角度探讨气候模式中的冰冻圈过程,以多因素、多过程综合与集成的手段辨析冰冻圈变化的影响,从方法创新上寻求科学评估冰冻圈变化脆弱性及适应性的突破途径,是未来研究的重点。     

冰冻圈生态系统若干问题评述

冰冻圈是气候系统中的五大圈层之一,冰冻圈变化对其内部及关联生态系统的影响已成为全球变化关注的热点领域,冰冻圈生态系统的概念也得到了越来越多的应用。本文基于国内外对冰冻圈要素与生物之间相互作用的已有研究成果,对冰冻圈生态系统的组成、各冰冻圈要素与生物之间的关系进行了系统梳理。目前,冰冻圈生态系统的研究热点主要是冰冻圈生境特征和生境变化对生物群落带来的影响。从生物群落是否直接生活在冰冻圈要素内来看,可将生态系统分为以微生物为主的冰冻圈内生生态系统（endophytic ecosystem of cryosphere）和冰冻圈关联生态系统（cryosphere-related ecosystems）。总体来看,目前冰冻圈生态系统的研究主要关注不同物种（例如陆地动植物、陆地淡水生物、海洋生物、海岸动物和鸟类动物等）对冰冻圈变化的响应,未来应重点开展冰冻圈变化对生物群落影响的定量化研究,特别要考虑冰冻圈各要素变化对生物群落影响的时间尺度和空间范围。     

"冰冻圈科学丛书"简介

中国科学家经过深思熟虑和深入研究,在国际上率先建立了冰冻圈科学学科体系,在冰冻圈科学的理论、方法和体系化方面引领着这一新兴学科的发展.围绕学科建设,2016年正式启动了"冰冻圈科学丛书"(以下简称"丛书")的编写.根据中国学者提出的冰冻圈科学学科体系,"丛书"包括《冰冻圈物理学》《冰冻圈化学》《冰冻圈地理学》《冰冻圈气候学》《冰冻圈水文学》《冰冻圈生态学》《冰冻圈微生物学》《冰冻圈气候环境记录》《第四纪冰冻圈》《冰冻圈工程学》《冰冻圈灾害学》《冰冻圈人文社会学》《冰冻圈遥感学》《行星冰冻圈》《冰冻圈地缘政治学》分卷,共计15册.     

冰冻圈及其变化的脆弱性与适应研究体系

冰冻圈及其变化的脆弱性与适应研究是以探索冰冻圈及其变化的脆弱性概念为前提和基础,以冰冻圈变化的自然影响为链接点,以社会经济影响研究为突破,以脆弱性研究为桥梁与纽带,以应对与适应冰冻圈变化影响、风险为目的的冰冻圈科学领域的新兴研究方向。探讨了冰冻圈及其变化的脆弱性概念,并以影响—脆弱性—适应为主线,针对冰冻圈变化的社会经济影响研究、脆弱性研究、适应研究内容及其关键科学问题、脆弱性评估模型、尺度问题进行了较为详细的阐述,初步搭建了中国冰冻圈及其变化的脆弱性与适应研究体系。基于冰冻圈要素的多样性、变化影响的复杂性与显著的区域差异性,从2个梯度勾绘了冰冻圈及其变化的脆弱性与适应研究格局与空间布局。中国冰冻圈及其变化的脆弱性与适应研究除深化冰冻圈变化的影响与脆弱性研究之外,应加强不同利益相关者协同设计、共同参与的冰冻圈变化适应应用研究,并关注冰冻圈灾害风险、渐变风险研究。     

冰冻圈变化对经济社会系统的综合影响及其适应性管理策略

冰冻圈是气候系统影响最直接和最敏感的圈层。在全球变化背景下,冰冻圈变化与生物圈、岩石圈、水圈、大气圈、人类圈之间的相互作用日趋加剧。特别地,冰冻圈快速变化对其影响区经济社会系统产生了广泛而深刻的负面影响,甚至危及人类福祉、经济社会系统的健康、和谐、持续发展。鉴于冰冻圈区位劣势及其较为落后的经济水平,其应对冰冻圈变化的能力极为有限。目前,适应仍然是冰冻圈应对气候变化的主要途径。冰冻圈变化对经济社会系统的综合影响分析是适应冰冻圈快速变化的基础,其适应性管理战略则是减轻冰冻圈快速变化不利影响、降低自然和经济社会系统防御其不利影响脆弱性的最终目标。     

《冰川冻土》征稿简则

<正>1.本刊是我国冰、雪、冻土和冰冻圈研究领域唯一的学报级学术期刊,积极支持在冰、雪、冻土和冰冻圈及全球变化基础研究和应用研究中具创造性、高水平和面向国民经济建设的新思想、新观点、新方法和新学说;促进国内外学术交流,传播与冰冻圈和全球变化相关的科学知识,为寒区国民经济建设服务.2.本刊刊登的论文、报道和综述内容主要包括:冰、雪、冻土(含人工冻土)的性质、过程及其控制;冰冻圈的资源与环境;冰冻圈各组分的动态变化及相互作用;冰冻圈与大气圈、水圈、生物圈、岩石圈和人类活动之间的相互作用;寒区水文     

《冰川冻土》征稿简则

<正>1.本刊是我国冰、雪、冻土和冰冻圈研究领域唯一的学报级学术期刊,积极支持在冰、雪、冻土和冰冻圈及全球变化基础研究和应用研究中具创造性、高水平和面向国民经济建设的新思想、新观点、新方法和新学说;促进国内外学术交流,传播与冰冻圈和全球变化相关的科学知识,为寒区国民经济建设服务.2.本刊刊登的论文、报道和综述内容主要包括:冰、雪、冻土(含人工冻土)的性质、过程及其控制;冰冻圈的资源与环境;冰冻圈各组分的动态变化及相互作用;冰冻圈与大气圈、水圈、生物圈、岩石圈和人类活动之间的相互作用;寒区水文     

“一带一路”区域冰冻圈变化及其对水资源的影响

"一带一路"区域横跨亚洲、欧洲和非洲东部、北部,空间范围大。在全球气候变暖背景下,"一带一路"区域的冰冻圈正在发生快速变化,将对区域水资源、生态系统、北极航道等带来深刻影响。综述了近几十年来"一带一路"沿线和周边区域(包括亚洲、欧洲、北极和非洲等)冰冻圈要素(包括冰川、多年冻土、积雪、海冰、河冰和湖冰)的变化及其对水资源的影响,主要认知为:①绝大部分冰川面积萎缩、冰川物质平衡处于亏损状态,但存在区域差异;②多年冻土温度升高,冻土分布下限上升,活动层厚度增大,多年冻土整体处于退化状态;③积雪范围明显缩减、积雪深度总体呈增加趋势,积雪期缩短,即积雪首日延后、消融期提前,但变化存在显著区域差异;④北极夏季海冰范围快速减少、厚度减薄,多年冰减少,反映了海冰的快速萎缩,河/湖冰初冰日延后、消融日提前、冰封期缩短;⑤中国冰川融水径流显著增加,积雪融水和多年冻土退化也在不同程度上增加了流域径流,反映出冰冻圈变化对径流的重要影响。"一带一路"区域冰冻圈萎缩的现状及其对水资源的影响分析,将为应对气候变化和区域可持续发展提供重要科学支撑。     

Unity of the national and the international in the socio-cultural development of the peoples of the USSR

International unity is becoming ever stronger in this country owing to an increasing similarity in the development of the cultural environment. This comprises the provision of all the country's republics with a sufficient number of schools, theatres, and other institutions and cultural information media in accordance with the needs of the population. An important part is played by the rise in ‘the general educational level, as well as the level of professional qualifications and skills. Among all the Soviet nations and nationalities, this rise being more rapid among formerly backward peoples. Prominent among the factors of internationalization is the progressive development of the nationalities’ cultural resources, while professional culture is being increasingly brought within the reach of the masses.The implementation of the nationalities policy promotes the all-round development of all Soviet nations and nationalities, their drawing together, the upsurge of the individual capabilities of every Soviet citizen.     

Global repeating events in the history of the Earth and the motion of the Sun in the Galaxy

Chronological analyses of correlations between certain global repeating events (mass extinctions of marine organisms, meteorite impacts, and flashes in the frequency of geomagnetic reversals) during the Phanerozoic Eon and the motion of the solar system in the Galaxy are presented for five rotationally symmetrical models for the regular Galactic gravitational field. Thirteen of sixteen mass-extinction events can be described by a repetition interval of 183±3 million years. This is in agreement with the anomalistic period (interval between two subsequent passages of the Sun through the apocenter of its Galactic orbit) in the model of Allen and Martos. The positions of the minima and maxima in Gaussian functions approximating the frequency distribution for geomagnetic reversals also agree with the times of passage of the Sun through the apocenter and pericenter, respectively, of its Galactic orbit in this model. The maximum in the distribution of the deviations of the dates of mass extinctions from the nearest dates of impacts of large, crater-forming bodies is close to zero, providing evidence that many such events are correlated. As a rule, extinctions follow impact events. The impacts of large bodies have occurred most often when the solar system passes through the Galactic plane, while mass extinctions occur more often at some distance from the Galactic plane (about 40 pc). As a rule, intervals of increases in the frequency of geomagnetic reversals coincide with dates of impacts of large bodies. At the same time, these intervals do not show a clear correlation with the dates of mass extinctions. The intensity of mass extinctions, like the energy released by impacts, is consistently higher in periods when the Sun is moving from the apocenter toward the pericenter of its orbit, than when it is moving from the pericenter toward the apocenter. Thus, there is evidence for a variety of relationships between repeating global events in the Phanerozoic and the motion of the Sun in the Galaxy. Long-period variations in the frequency of geomagnetic reversals are correlated with the orbital motion of the Sun, and increases in the frequency of geomagnetic reversals are correlated with impacts. Mass extinctions are correlated with the impacts of large bodies, whose motions may have been perturbed by clouds of interstellar material concentrated toward the Galactic plane and by the shock front associated with the Perseus spiral arm, through which the solar system passes. The velocity of the Sun relative to the spiral pattern is estimated.     

Deviation of the major axis of the inertia ellipsoid of the Moon from the direction toward the Earth

It is known from observations that the center of mass of the Moon does not coincide with the geometric center of its figure, and the line connecting these two centers is not aligned with the direction toward the center of the Earth, instead deviating toward the Southeast. This stationary deviation of the axis of the inertia ellipsoid of the Moon to the South of the direction toward the Earth is analyzed. A system of five linear differential equations describing the physical libration of the Moon in latitude is considered, and these equations are derived using a new vector method taking into account perturbations from the Earth and partly from the Sun. The characteristic equation of this system is obtained, and all five oscillation frequencies are found. Special attention is paid to the fifth (zero) frequency, for which the solution of the latitude libration equations are stationary and represents a previously unknown additional motion of the rotational axis of theMoon in a cone with a small opening angle. In contrast to the astronomical precession of the Earth, the rotation of the angular-velocity vector is in the positive direction (counter-clockwise), with the period T ₃ = 27.32 days. On this basis, this phenomenon has been named “quasi-precession.” This quasi-precession leads to a stationary inclination of the major axis of the inertia ellipsoid of theMoon to the South (for an observer on Earth), making it possible to explain one component of the observed deviation of the center of mass of the Moon from the direction toward the Earth. The opening angle of the quasiprecession cone is approximately 0.834″.     

从榴辉岩与围岩的关系论苏鲁榴辉岩的形成与折返

位于华北和扬子两板块碰撞带中的苏鲁榴辉岩形成的温压条件不但是超高压，而且是高温。榴辉岩的PTt轨迹表明其为陆-陆磁撞俯冲带的产物。榴辉岩的区域性围岩花岗质片麻岩为新元古代同碰撞期花岗岩，榴辉岩及其他直接围岩皆呈包体存在于其中，并见新元古代花岗岩呈脉状侵入榴辉岩包体中。区域性围岩新元古代花岗岩的锆石中发现有柯石英、绿辉石等包裹体，表明新元古代花岗岩的组成物质也经受过超高压变质作用，且榴辉岩与围岩新元古代花岗岩的锆石U-Pb体系同位素年龄基本相同。但新元古代花岗岩所记录的变质作用和变形作用期次（或阶段）却少于榴辉岩。椐上述可得如下推断：超高压榴辉岩与新元古代花岗岩岩浆是同时在碰撞带底部（俯冲板块前部）形成的；榴辉岩的第一折返阶段是由新元古代花岗岩岩浆携带上升的，其第二折返阶段是和新元古代花岗岩一起由逆冲及区域性隆起而上升，遭受剥蚀。     

某高速公路下伏煤矿采空区稳定性分析

在论述某高速公路下伏砦脖煤矿采空区地质、采矿和工程地质特征的基础上, 进行了稳定性数值模拟分析, 定性与定量地分析与评价了该煤矿采空区的地表变形特征及稳定性。研究结果表明: 该煤矿采空区的变形尚未完成, 对拟建的高速公路将产生很大的危害, 必须采取相应的工程治理措施。      

摩擦桩基桩土间极限摩阻力取值问题探讨

通过对广珠东线高速公路横沥大桥的试桩及土体的工程地质条件分析,总结出影响摩擦桩基桩土间极限摩阻力取值的一般问题以及解决问题的方法和措施。     

The Importance of the Precipitation and the Susceptibility of the Slopes for the Triggering of Landslides Along the Roads

In order to characterise the influence of the heavyrains on the observed landslides during the 1996–1997hydrological cycle, rainfall records for the last 100years are analysed from 104 stations in easternAndalusia. Regarding the amounts of rain recordedbetween October 1996 and March 1997 in the 104stations studied, 31 presented new all-time records;15 presented values that were 80–100% of thepre-1995 record; 49 stations, 80–50%; and 9stations, < 50%. A map has been devised of thesusceptibility of the materials through which thesouth-eastern Andalusian road network crosses,together with an inventory of the damage caused byinstability phenomena on banks and cuttings of theroad network during the winter of 1996–1997. Therelationships between the rainfall during the studyperiod, the damage caused to the road network and thesusceptibility of the materials affected are analysed.The results indicate that there is a clearcorrespondence between the rainfall recorded and thesusceptibility of the materials with the inventorieddamage. It is concluded that the widespread seriousdamage caused in early 1997 to the roads andsurrounding areas in the Alpujarra region and thecoast of the Province of Granada was mainly caused bythe extraordinarily heavy rains. However, considerablyless damage was observed where the susceptibility ofthe terrain is low, thus highlighting the extremeusefulness of terrain-susceptibility maps for riskprevention and territorial planning.     

On the consistency of proposed models for the Pyrenees with the structure of the eastern parts of the belt

The structure of the eastern Pyrenees consists mainly of south-directed thrusts involving basement and cover rocks. An antiformal stack developed by the piling up of basement thrust sheets which outcrop in the Axial zone. These structures account for a thin-skinned thrust model rather than a vertical fault model in which the Axial zone would be essentially autochthonous, and the North-Pyrenean fault the axial plane of a fan thrust system. New data from the Eastern Pyrenees and the thin-skinned model suggest that(1) the structure east of the Pedraforca nappe is similar to that of the Central Pyrenees; (2) the cover rocks of the South-Pyrenean units and of the Axial zone-after restoration—built up a northwards-thickening prism consistent with the existence of a unique Pyrenean sedimentary basin during Mesozoic time; (3) the Axial zone is only a complex antiformal stack developed as a part of South-Pyrenean system related to the Paleogene thrusting-tectonics. The Axial zone palaeogeographic area had no special meaning during Mesozoic time.