Comparison of the Hill–Siscoe polar cap potential theory with the Weimer and AMIE models

The magnetic storm on November 2004 was characterized by a high solar wind pressure and thus offers a unique opportunity to test the Hill–Siscoe formula (H–S) for the polar cap potential (PCP). To estimate the polar cap potential, we use the Weimer Statistical Convection Model (WCM), and the Assimilative Mapping of Ionospheric Electrodynamics Model (AMIE), based on ingestion of a number of data sets. H–S is in excellent agreement with WCM, and with AMIE during times when DMSP is used in the latter. The implication is that the AMIE conductivity model yields conductivities that are too high by a factor of 2–3. Both H–S and WCM display saturation effects, although WCM is more severe. The two methods track well until an IEF of about 20 mV/m occurs, where H–S continues to increase while WCM levels off. Even at high electric field values, the pressure increases the denominator of the H–S formula by 60%, keeping the potential lower than its saturation value. There are several H–S points above 250 kV, even up to 400 kV, that are not found in WCM and occur right after a rapid transition from B_z north to south. For B_z north, we find evidence for a saturation effect on the PCP at large IEF, little effect as a function of solar wind velocity, and an increase of the PCP with increasing pressure. This seems to rule out viscous interaction but may involve geometric changes in the high-altitude polar cusp that affect recombination there for B_z north.     

Assessing fertilization success of the coral Montipora capitata under copper exposure: Does the night of spawning matter?

Metal pollution is a major threat in tropical areas due to increasing pressure from anthropogenic activities along coastlines. Unfortunately there are very few toxicological studies that assess the effects of metals on marine organisms in tropical areas. To help fill this gap, this study investigated how Cu alters the fertilization success of the coral Montipora capitata over several nights of spawning. Results indicate that gametes of M. capitata are sensitive to Cu pollution, with EC₅₀ after 3 h ranging from 16.6 to 31.7 μg l^?1. Moreover, the sensitivity of the gametes to Cu toxicity was influenced by the night of spawning during which fertilization experiments were performed. This result likely reflected changes in the quality of gamete over the spawning period.     

Does sea-level rise have an impact on saltwater intrusion?

Climate change effects are expected to substantially raise the average sea level. It is widely assumed that this raise will have a severe adverse impact on saltwater intrusion processes in coastal aquifers. In this study we hypothesize that a natural mechanism, identified here as the “lifting process,” has the potential to mitigate, or in some cases completely reverse, the adverse intrusion effects induced by sea-level rise. A detailed numerical study using the MODFLOW-family computer code SEAWAT was completed to test this hypothesis and to understand the effects of this lifting process in both confined and unconfined systems. Our conceptual simulation results show that if the ambient recharge remains constant, the sea-level rise will have no long-term impact (i.e., it will not affect the steady-state salt wedge) on confined aquifers. Our transient confined-flow simulations show a self-reversal mechanism where the wedge which will initially intrude into the formation due to the sea-level rise would be naturally driven back to the original position. In unconfined systems, the lifting process would have a lesser influence due to changes in the value of effective transmissivity. A detailed sensitivity analysis was also completed to understand the sensitivity of this self-reversal effect to various aquifer parameters.     

Variation of stress field in the source region around a strong shock：an example

Ｖａｒｉａｔｉｏｎｏｆｓｔｒｅｓｓｆｉｅｌｄｉｎｔｈｅｓｏｕｒｃｅｒｅｇｉｏｎａｒｏｕｎｄａｓｔｒｏｎｇｓｈｏｃｋ：ａｎｅｘａｍｐｌｅＧｕｔ－ＬｉｎｇＤＩＡＯ（刁桂苓），Ｌｉ－ＭｉｎＹＵ（于利民）ａｎｄＱｉｎ－ＺｕＬＩ（李钦祖）（Ｓｅｉｓｍｏｌｏｇｉ...     

Does the Phaeocystis bloom affect the diel migration of the suprabenthos community?

The suprabenthos comprises all bottom-dependent animals, mainly crustaceans (including decapods and peracarids), which perform--with varying amplitude, intensity and regularity--seasonal or daily vertical migrations above the sea floor. The presence of organisms in the Benthic Boundary Layer is determined by two general factors: (1) organism behaviour, which depends on the light penetration in the water column and (2) boundary-layer hydrodynamics. In the coastal zone of the eastern English Channel, during the spring Phaeocystis bloom, the presence of gelatinous colonies modifies the penetration of light in the water column, which may seriously affect the abundance and/or the behaviour of the suprabenthos community. To clarify this point, 19 suprabenthic hauls were taken with a modified Macer-GIROQ sledge both during the day and during the night, from March to June 2002 (i.e., before, during and after the bloom). Two sites, located in the coastal and offshore areas of the Ophelia medium sand macrobenthic community were investigated. The bloom had no effect on species richness and abundance in either site. However, the diel migrations of some dominant species--such as the cumaceans Pseudocuma longicornis and Pseudocuma similis, the mysid Gastrosaccus spinifer and the amphipod Stenothoe marina--were modified. During the bloom, diurnal and nocturnal suprabenthic abundances were similar, and in the absence of bloom, species remained benthic during the day. The permanent presence of suprabenthic species in the Benthic Boundary Layer could have a consequence on their predation by fish (mainly juveniles which preferentially consume small crustaceans in their diet), unless fish behaviour and predation efficiency--especially for visual predators--are also disturbed by changes in light intensity.     

Does an upper limit to river water temperature apply in all places?

There remains continued use of non‐linear, logistic regression models for predicting water temperature from air temperature. A dominant feature of these non‐linear models is an upper bound on river water temperature. This upper bound is often attributed to a large increase in evaporative cooling at high air temperatures, but the exact conditions under which such an increase may occur have not been thoroughly explored. To better understand the appropriateness of the non‐linear model for predicting river water temperatures, it is essential to understand the physical basis for the upper bound and when it should and should not be included in the statistical model. This paper applies and validates an energy balance model against 8 river systems spread across different climate regions of the United States. The energy balance model is then used to develop a diagram relating vapour pressure deficit and air temperature to water temperature. With knowledge of present or future vapour pressure deficit (difference between saturation and actual vapour content in the atmosphere) conditions in a given climate, the diagram can be used to predict the likelihood of an upper bound in the air–water temperature relationship. This investigation offers a fundamental physical explanation of the most appropriate form of statistical models that should be used for predicting future water temperature from air temperature in different geographic regions with different climate conditions. In general, climatic regions that have only a slight increase in vapour pressure deficit with increasing air temperature (typically humid regions) would not be expected to have an upper bound. Conversely, climatic regions in which vapour pressure deficit sharply increases with increasing air temperature (typically arid regions) would be expected to have an upper bound.     

Does the river run wild? Assessing chaos in hydrological systems

The standing debate over whether hydrological systems are deterministic or stochastic has been taken to a new level by controversial applications of chaos mathematics. This paper reviews the procedure, constraints, and past usage of a popular chaos time series analysis method, correlation integral analysis, in hydrology and adds a new analysis of daily streamflow from a pristine watershed. Significant problems with the use of correlation integral analysis (CIA) were found to include a continued reliance on the original algorithm even though it was corrected subsequently and failure to consider the physics underlying mathematical results. The new analysis of daily streamflow reported here found no attractor with D⩽5. Phase randomization of the Fourier Transform of streamflow was used to provide a better stochastic surrogate than an Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model or gaussian noise for distinguishing between chaotic and stochastic dynamics.     

Does Pumping Volume Affect the Concentration of Micropollutants in Groundwater Samples?

Information on concentrations of micropollutants (such as pharmaceuticals, pesticides, and industrial chemicals) in most highly dynamic riverbank filtration (RBF) systems is lacking, in contrast to data on standard chemical parameters. Sampling protocols have thus far been based on the stabilization of standard chemical parameters in relatively pristine environments. To determine whether groundwater samples for micropollutant analysis can be taken at a similar pumping volume as samples for testing standard chemical parameters in both environments, three groundwater monitoring wells in an RBF system were sampled at two points in time (after pumping of 3 well volumes and after pumping of 15 well volumes). Micropollutant concentrations were not significantly different between the two sampling points; therefore, appropriate samples can be drawn after pumping 3 well volumes. For a specific microbiological parameter (leucin incorporation), a statistically significant difference was found.     

Accidental design eccentricity: Is it important for the inelastic response of buildings to strong earthquakes?

To deal with earthquake-induced torsion in buildings due to some uncertain factors, difficult to account for directly in design, modern codes have introduced the so-called accidental design eccentricity (ADE). This provision has been based primarily on elastic investigations with special classes of multi-story buildings or with simplified, one-story inelastic models. In the present paper, the effectiveness of this provision is investigated using inelastic models, both of the typical one-story, 3-DOF type, and the more sophisticated MDOF, frame idealizations of the plastic hinge type. One, three and five story, realistic, frame buildings with different natural eccentricities were designed for different ADEs, including those specified by the EC8 and IBC codes. The evaluation is made using mean peak ductility factors of the edge frames as measures of their inelastic response, obtained from dynamic analyses for ten pairs of semi-artificial earthquake motions. The simplified models indicate that the accidental design eccentricity is very effective in reducing ductility demands, especially for very stiff systems. However, this is not confirmed by the more accurate and detailed plastic hinge building models, which show that designs accounting for accidental eccentricity do not exhibit any substantial reduction or better distribution of ductility demands, compared to designs in which accidental eccentricity has been entirely ignored. These findings suggest that the ADE provisions in codes, especially the more complicated ones as in the IBC, should be re-examined, by weighting their importance against the additional computational work they impose on designers. In the cases examined herein this importance can be characterized as marginal. Obviously additional studies are required, to include more building types and earthquake motions, in order to arrive at firm conclusions and recommendations for code modifications.     

Does the QBO and the Mt. Pinatubo Volcanic Eruption Affect the Gravity Wave Activity in the Lower Ionosphere ?

All existing data (6 years) on gravity wave activity, inferred from the nighttime A3 (oblique incidence on the ionosphere) radio wave absorption measurements in the lower ionosphere on 270 kHz at Prhonice in Central Europe, have been exploited to get information on the effects of QBO phases and the Mt. Pinatubo volcanic eruption on the gravity wave activity in the winter half of the year. There appears to be an enhancement of gravity wave activity in the two winters just after the strong volcanic eruption of Mt. Pinatubo. This enhancement is remarkable for long-period waves (T=2–3 hours). No clear effect of the phase of QBO on the level of gravity wave activity has been found; a possible effect of QBO on the correlations between gravity wave activities in individual period bands is indicated. The results are limited by a relatively short data series; however, no more data will he available.     

Does hillslope trenching enhance groundwater recharge and baseflow in the Peruvian Andes?

As Andean glaciers rapidly retreat due to climate change, the balance of groundwater and glacial meltwater contributions to stream discharge in tropical, proglacial watersheds will change, potentially increasing vulnerability of water resources. The Shullcas River Watershed, near Huancayo, Peru, is fed only partly by the rapidly receding Huaytapallana glaciers (<20% of dry season flow). To potentially increase recharge and therefore increase groundwater derived baseflow, the government and not‐for‐profit organizations have installed trenches along large swaths of hillslope in the Shullcas Watershed. Our study focuses on a nonglacierized subcatchment of the Shullcas River Watershed and has 2 objectives: (a) create a model of the Shullcas groundwater system and assess the controls on stream discharge and (b) investigate the impact of the infiltration trenches on recharge and baseflow. We first collected hydrologic data from the field including a year‐long hydrograph (2015–2016), meteorological data (2011–2016), and infiltration measurements. We use a recharge model to evaluate the impact of trenched hillslopes on infiltration and runoff processes. Finally, we use a 3‐dimensional groundwater model, calibrated to the measured dry season baseflow, to determine the impact of trenching on the catchment. Simulations show that trenched hillslopes receive approximately 3.5% more recharge, relative to precipitation, compared with unaltered hillslopes. The groundwater model indicates that because the groundwater flow system is fast and shallow, incorporating trenched hillslopes (~2% of study subcatchment area) only slightly increases baseflow in the dry season. Furthermore, the location of trenching is an important consideration: Trenching higher in the catchment (further from the river) and in flatter terrain provides more baseflow during the dry season. The results of this study may have important implications for Andean landscape management and water resources.     

Seasonal compensation implied no weakening of the land carbon sink in the Northern Hemisphere under the 2015/2016 El Ni?o

The recurrent extreme El Ni?o events are commonly linked to reduced vegetation growth and the land carbon sink over many but discrete regions of the Northern Hemisphere(NH). However, we reported here a pervasive and continuous vegetation greening and no weakened land carbon sink in the maturation phase of the 2015/2016 El Ni?o event over the NH(mainly in the extra-tropics), based on multiple evidences from remote sensing observations, global ecosystem model simulations and atmospheric CO₂     

Does the complexity in temporal precipitation disaggregation matter for a lumped hydrological model?

ABSTRACT

Flood peaks and volumes are essential design variables and can be simulated by precipitation–runoff (P–R) modelling. The high-resolution precipitation time series that are often required for this purpose can be generated by various temporal disaggregation methods. Here, we compare a simple method (M1, one parameter), focusing on the effective precipitation duration for flood simulations, with a multiplicative cascade model (M2, 32/36 parameters). While M2 aims at generating realistic characteristics of precipitation time series, M1 aims only at accurately reproducing flood variables by P–R modelling. Both disaggregation methods were tested on precipitation time series of nine Swiss mesoscale catchments. The generated high-resolution time series served as input for P–R modelling using a lumped HBV model. The results indicate that differences identified in precipitation characteristics of disaggregated time series vanish when introduced into the lumped hydrological model. Moreover, flood peaks were more sensitive than flood volumes to the choice of disaggregation method.     

Does the permeability of gravel river beds affect near‐bed hydrodynamics?

The permeability of river beds is an important control on hyporheic flow and the movement of fine sediment and solutes into and out of the bed. However, relatively little is known about the effect of bed permeability on overlying near‐bed flow dynamics, and thus on fluid advection at the sediment–water interface. This study provides the first quantification of this effect for water‐worked gravel beds. Laboratory experiments in a recirculating flume revealed that flows over permeable beds exhibit fundamental differences compared with flows over impermeable beds of the same topography. The turbulence over permeable beds is less intense, more organised and more efficient at momentum transfer because eddies are more coherent. Furthermore, turbulent kinetic energy is lower, meaning that less energy is extracted from the mean flow by this turbulence. Consequently, the double‐averaged velocity is higher and the bulk flow resistance is lower over permeable beds, and there is a difference in how momentum is conveyed from the overlying flow to the bed surface. The main implications of these results are three‐fold. First, local pressure gradients, and therefore rates of material transport, across the sediment–water interface are likely to differ between impermeable and permeable beds. Second, near‐bed and hyporheic flows are unlikely to be adequately predicted by numerical models that represent the bed as an impermeable boundary. Third, more sophisticated flow resistance models are required for coarse‐grained rivers that consider not only the bed surface but also the underlying permeable structure. Overall, our results suggest that the effects of bed permeability have critical implications for hyporheic exchange, fluvial sediment dynamics and benthic habitat availability. © 2017 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.