用全球大气环流模式嵌套区域气候模式模拟东亚现代气候

将区域气候模式RegCM2与中国科学院大气物理研究所的9层全球格点大气环流模式IAP-AGCM单向嵌套,对东亚现代气候进行数值模拟研究,同时检验和分析该嵌套模式的性能.已完成的10年积分结果表明,单向嵌套RegCM2由于具有较高分辨率和较完善的物理过程,因此对地面气温和降水的空间分布形势和季节变化趋势都有较好的模拟能力,且较与之嵌套的IAP-AGCM的模拟效果有较大改善,如在中国区域,它模拟的年均地面气温与实况的空间相关系数由全球环流模式的0.92提高到0.94,模拟的年均降水由0.5提高到0.7. 这与嵌套RegCM2能模拟出IAP-AGCM所不能分辨的中尺度信号有很大关系.     

Formulation of a new ocean salinity boundary condition and impact on the simulated climate of an oceanic general circulation model

The salinity boundary condition at the ocean surface plays an important role in the stability of long-term integrations of an oceanic general circulation model(OGCM) and in determining its equilibrium solutions.This study presents a new formulation of the salt flux calculation at the ocean surface based on physical processes of salt exchange at the air-sea interface.The formulation improves the commonly used virtual salt flux with constant reference salinity by allowing for spatial correlations between surface freshwater flux and sea-surface salinity while preserving the conservation of global salinity.The new boundary condition is implemented in the latest version of the National Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics/Institute of Atmospheric Physics Climate Ocean Model version 2(LICOM2.0).The impact of the new boundary condition on the equilibrium simulations of the model is presented.It is shown that the new formulation leads to a stronger Atlantic meridional overturning circulation(AMOC) that is closer to observational estimates.It also slightly improves poleward heat transport by the oceans in both the Atlantic and the global oceans.     

Effects of alternative cloud radiation parameterizations in a general circulation model

Using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) general circulation model (CCM2), a suite of alternative cloud radiation parameterizations has been tested. Our methodology relies on perpetual July integrations driven by ±2 K sea surface temperature forcing. The tested parameterizations include relative humidity based clouds and versions of schemes involving a prognostic cloud water budget. We are especially interested in testing the effect of cloud optical thickness feedbacks on global climate sensitivity. All schemes exhibit negative cloud radiation feedbacks, i.e., cloud moderates the global warming. However, these negative net cloud radiation feedbacks consist of quite different shortwave and longwave components between a scheme with interactive cloud radiative properties and several schemes with specified cloud water paths. An increase in cloud water content in the warmer climate leads to optically thicker middle- and low-level clouds and in turn negative shortwave feedbacks for the interactive radiative scheme, while a decrease in cloud amount leads to a positive shortwave feedback for the other schemes. For the longwave feedbacks, a decrease in high effective cloudiness for the schemes without interactive radiative properties leads to a negative feedback, while no distinct changes in effective high cloudiness and the resulting feedback are exhibited for the scheme with interactive radiative properties. The resulting magnitude of negative net cloud radiation feed-back is largest for the scheme with interactive radiative properties. Even though the simulated values of cloud radiative forcing for the present climate using this method differ most from the observational data, the approach shows great promise for the future.     

Land use effects on climate in China as simulated by a regional climate model

A regional climate model (RegCM3) nested within ERA40 re-analyzed data is used to investigate the climate effects of land use change over China. Two 15-year simulations (1987―2001), one with current land use and the other with potential vegetation cover without human intervention, are conducted for a domain encompassing China. The climate impacts of land use change are assessed from the difference between the two simulations. Results show that the current land use (modified by anthropogenic ac- tivities) influences local climate as simulated by the model through the reinforcement of the monsoon circulation in both the winter and summer seasons and through changes of the surface energy budget. In winter, land use change leads to reduced precipitation and decreased surface air temperature south of the Yangtze River, and increased precipitation north of the Yangtze River. Land use change signifi- cantly affects summer climate in southern China, yielding increased precipitation over the region, de- creased temperature along the Yangtze River and increased temperature in the South China area (south-end of China). In summer, a reduction of precipitation over northern China and a temperature rise over Northwest China are also simulated. Both daily maximum and minimum temperatures are affected in the simulations. In general, the current land use in China leads to enhanced mean annual precipitation and decreased annual temperature over south China along with decreased precipitation over North China.     

Downscaling two versions of a general circulation model to estimate local hydroclimatic factors under climate change

Abstract

The regional hydroclimatological effect of global climate change has been estimated and compared using a semi-empirical downscaling method with two versions (T21 and T42) of the general circulation model (GCM) developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Germany. The comparisons were performed with daily mean temperature and daily precipitation amounts for the continental climate of the state of Nebraska, USA. Both the T21 and the T42 versions resulted in an increase of daily mean temperature under a 2 x C02 climatess. The magnitude of warming was substantially greater for T21 than for T42, except for February and June and at some stations in July where the T42 model suggested greater warming. Both GCMs resulted in a slight decrease in precipitation frequency and an increase in the amount of precipitation on wet days. Here, the T42 model again led to smaller changes. Different locations within Nebraska exhibited somewhat different temperature and precipitation responses with both GCM versions.     

Optimisation of a parallel ocean general circulation model

This paper presents the development of a general-purpose parallel ocean circulation model, for use on a wide range of computer platforms, from traditional scalar machines to workstation clusters and massively parallel processors. Parallelism is provided, as a modular option, via high-level message-passing routines, thus hiding the technical intricacies from the user. An initial implementation highlights that the parallel efficiency of the model is adversely affected by a number of factors, for which optimisations are discussed and implemented. The resulting ocean code is portable and, in particular, allows science to be achieved on local workstations that could otherwise only be undertaken on state-of-the-art supercomputers.     

Correcting circulation biases in a lower-resolution global general circulation model with data assimilation

In this study, we aim at developing a new method of bias correction using data assimilation. This method is based on the stochastic forcing of a model to correct bias by directly adding an additional source term into the model equations. This method is presented and tested first with a twin experiment on a fully controlled Lorenz ’96 model. It is then applied to the lower-resolution global circulation NEMO-LIM2 model, with both a twin experiment and a real case experiment. Sea surface height observations are used to create a forcing to correct the poorly located and estimated currents. Validation is then performed throughout the use of other variables such as sea surface temperature and salinity. Results show that the method is able to consistently correct part of the model bias. The bias correction term is presented and is consistent with the limitations of the global circulation model causing bias on the oceanic currents.     

Deep circulation in the South China Sea simulated in a regional model

Ocean Dynamics - In this study, deep circulation in the South China Sea (SCS) is investigated using results from mesoscale-eddy-resolving, regional simulations using the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean...     

The effect of horizontal resolution on gravity waves simulated by the GFDL “SKYHI” general circulation model

To examine the effects of horizontal resolution on internal gravity waves simulated by the 40-level GFDL SKYHI general circulation model, a comparison is made between the 3° and 1° resolution models during late December. The stratospheric and mesospheric zonal flows in the winter and summer extratropical regions of the 1° model are much weaker and more realistic than the corresponding zonal flows of the 3° model. The weaker flows are consistent with the stronger Eliassen-Palm flux divergence (EPFD).The increase in the magnitude of the EPFD in the winter and summer extratropical mesospheres is due mostly to the increase in the gravity wave vertical momentum flux convergence (VMFC). In the summer extratropical mesosphere, the increase in the resolvable horizontal wavenumbers accounts for most of the increase in the gravity wave VMFC. In the winter extratropical mesosphere, the increase of VMFC associated with large-scale eastward moving components also accounts for part of the increase in the gravity wave VMFC.The gravity waves in the summer and winter mesosphere of the 1° model are associated with a broader frequency-spectral distribution, resulting in a more sporadic time-distribution of their VMFC. This broadening is due not only to the increase in resolvable horizontal wavenumbers but also occurs in the large-scale components owing to wave-wave interactions. It was found that the phase velocity and frequency of resolvable small-scale gravity waves are severely underestimated by finite difference approximations.     

Nonlinear dynamics and recurrence analysis of extreme precipitation for observed and general circulation model generated climates

A statistical framework based on nonlinear dynamics theory and recurrence quantification analysis of dynamical systems is proposed to quantitatively identify the temporal characteristics of extreme (maximum) daily precipitation series. The methodology focuses on both observed and general circulation model (GCM) generated climates for present (1961–2000) and future (2061–2100) periods which correspond to 1xCO₂ and 2xCO₂ simulations. The daily precipitation has been modelled as a stochastic process coupled with atmospheric circulation. An automated and objective classification of daily circulation patterns (CPs) based on optimized fuzzy rules was used to classify both observed CPs and ECHAM4 GCM‐generated CPs for 1xCO₂ and 2xCO₂ climate simulations (scenarios). The coupled model ‘CP‐precipitation’ was suitable for precipitation downscaling. The overall methodology was applied to the medium‐sized mountainous Mesochora catchment in Central‐Western Greece. Results reveal substantial differences between the observed maximum daily precipitation statistical patterns and those produced by the two climate scenarios. A variable nonlinear deterministic behaviour characterizes all climate scenarios examined. Transitions’ patterns differ in terms of duration and intensity. The 2xCO₂ scenario contains the strongest transitions highlighting an unusual shift between floods and droughts. The implications of the results to the predictability of the phenomenon are also discussed. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Passive tracers in a general circulation model of the Southern Ocean

Passive tracers are used in an off-line version of the United Kingdom Fine Resolution Antarctic Model (FRAM) to highlight features of the circulation and provide information on the inter-ocean exchange of water masses. The use of passive tracers allows a picture to be built up of the deep circulation which is not readily apparent from examination of the veloCity or density fields. Comparison of observations with FRAM results gives good agreement for many features of the Southern Ocean circulation. Tracer distributions are consistent with the concept of a global “conveyor belt” with a return path via the Agulhas retroflection region for the replenishment of North Atlantic Deep Water.     

Effects of a variety of Indian Ocean surface temperature anomaly patterns on the summer monsoon circulation: Experiments with the NCAR general circulation model

The time mean response of the summer monsoon circulation, as simulated by the 2.5° latitude-longitude resolution, July version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) General Circulation Model (GCM), to a variety of Indian Ocean surface temperature anomaly patterns is examined. In separate experiments, prescribed changes in surface temperature are imposed in the Western Arabian Sea, the Eastern Arbian Sea or the Central Indian Ocean. The influence of these anomaly patterns on the simulated summer monsoon circulation is evaluated in terms of the geographical distribution of the prescribed change response for any field of interest. This response is defined as the grid point difference between a 30-day mean from a prescribed change experiment and the ensemble average of the 30-day means from the control population for which the same set of climatological ocean surface temperatures are used in each simulation. The statistical significance of such a prescribed change response is estimated by relating the normalized response (defined as the ratio of the prescribed change response to the standard deviation of 30-day means as estimated from the finite sample of control cases) to the classical Student'st-statistic. Using this methodology, the most prominent and statistically significant features of the model's response are increased vertical velocity and precipitation over warm anomalies and typically decreased vertical velocity and precipitation in some preferred region adjacent to the prescribed change region. In the case of cold anomalies, these changes are of opposite sign. However, none of the imposed anomaly patterns produces substantial or statistically significant precipitation changes over large areas of the Indian sub-continent. The only evidence of a major nonlocal effect is found in the experiment with a large positive anomaly (+3°C) in the Central Indian Ocean. In this instance, vertical velocity and precipitation are reduced over Malaysia and a large area of the Equatorial Western Pacific Ocean. Thus, while these anomaly experiments produce only a local response (for the most part), it is hoped, as one of the purposes of the planned Monsoon Experiment (MONEX), that the necessary data will be provided to produce detailed empirical evidence on the extent to which Indian Ocean surface temperature anomalies correlate with precipitation anomalies over the Indian subcontinent—a correlation which generally does not appear in these GCM results.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation     

Equilibration mechanisms in an adjoint ocean general circulation model

We examine the equilibrated and time-evolving adjoint solutions of an ocean general circulation model. Adjoint models calculate the sensitivity of a diagnostic, (here, the strength of the meridional overturning) to all forcing fields in a single integration. The time evolution of the sensitivity patterns demonstrates the validity of the adjoint modeling approach over climatological time scales in coarse-resolution ocean models. Our objective is to identify the principle adjustment mechanisms through which the meridional overturning strength adapts to perturbations in wind and buoyancy forcing. The adjoint approach is shown to be a valuable alternative to traditional perturbation methods in highlighting the processes and time scales important to ocean and climate modeling.     

Streamflow simulations for continental-scale river basins in a global atmospheric general circulation model

Streamflow simulations for 23 major river basins from the third-generation general circulation model (GCM) of the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis are assessed. Precipitation and runoff data are used from the AMIP II simulation in which the GCM is integrated for a 17-yr period with specific sea surface temperatures and sea-ice concentrations. Compared to the observations, the components of the global hydrological cycle and, the globally averaged precipitation and runoff over land, are well simulated. There remain, however, discrepancies in the simulation of regional precipitation and consequently runoff amounts, which lead to differences in basin-wide averaged quantities. Mean annual model precipitation is within 20% of the observed estimates for 13 out of 23 river basins considered. Model mean annual runoff is within 20% of the observed estimates for only 4 out of these 13 river basins. Analysis of basin-wide averaged monthly precipitation and streamflow data, and the errors associated with the mean, and amplitude and phase of the annual cycles, indicate that model streamflow simulations improve with improvement in GCM precipitation.     

The physics of precipitation in cumulus clouds

Summary Over the past several years, the University of Chicago has conducted a program of research into the physics and chemistry of cumulus cloud precipitation. From these measurements it has been possible to isolate the sublimation-coalescence mechanism (Bergeron process) from the condensation-coalescence mechanism and to estimate the relative role of each process in the formation of rain n cumulus clouds. It is found that size of cloud capable of raining is a strong function of geography, that the environment of the cloud is very important in determining the probability of rain and that liquid water content is one of the most important within-cloud parameters.An essential part of the research concerned cloud treatment. Definite, positive treatment effects were demonstrated for rain initiation through coalescence using water spray. No effects were detectable from dry ice seeding of subcooled clouds, although any such effects may have been obscured by sample size (27 cloud pairs).Text of paper presented before Physical Society and Royal Meteorological Society Joint Conference on Cloud Physics, London, England, Jan. 4–5, 1956. The research reported in this paper has been sponsored by the Geophysics Research. Directorate of the Air Force Cambridge Research Center, Air Research and Development Command under Contract Nos. AF 19 (604)-618 and AF 19 (604)-1388.     

A non-breaking-wave-generated turbulence mixing scheme for a global ocean general circulation model

Ocean Dynamics - A novel vertical mixing scheme to describe the influence of the non-breaking surface waves in ocean general circulation models is proposed based on the second-order turbulence...     

Effects of wave-induced forcing on a circulation model of the North Sea

The effect of wind waves on water level and currents during two storms in the North Sea is investigated using a high-resolution Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) model forced with fluxes and fields from a high-resolution wave model. The additional terms accounting for wave-current interaction that are considered in this study are the Stokes-Coriolis force, the sea-state-dependent energy and momentum fluxes. The individual and collective role of these processes is quantified and the results are compared with a control run without wave effects as well as against current and water-level measurements from coastal stations. We find a better agreement with observations when the circulation model is forced by sea-state-dependent fluxes, especially in extreme events. The two extreme events, the storm Christian (25–27 October 2013), and about a month later, the storm Xaver (5–7 December 2013), induce different wave and surge conditions over the North Sea. Including the wave effects in the circulation model for the storm Xaver raises the modelled surge by more than 40 cm compared with the control run in the German Bight area. For the storm Christian, a difference of 20–30 cm in the surge level between the wave-forced and the stand-alone ocean model is found over the whole southern part of the North Sea. Moreover, the modelled vertical velocity profile fits the observations very well when the wave forcing is accounted for. The contribution of wave-induced forcing has been quantified indicating that this represents an important mechanism for improving water-level and current predictions.     

Seasonal variation of non-migrating semidiurnal tide in the polar MLT region in a general circulation model

Behavior of semidiurnal tides in the north and south polar MLT regions simulated by Middle Atmosphere Circulation Model at Kyushu University is described. Summertime enhancement of westward propagating semidiurnal tide with zonal wavenumber s=1 is found, which is consistent with the observed result at the South Pole (Ann. Geophys. 16 (1998) 828). Additional numerical simulations show that the non-migrating semidiurnal tide is mainly generated by the nonlinear interactions between stationary planetary waves with zonal wavenumber s=1 and the migrating semidiurnal tide in the stratosphere and mesosphere as suggested by Forbes et al. (Geophys. Res. Lett. 22(23) (1995) 3247).