Relationship between solar radiation and dimethylsulfide concentrations using in situ data for the pristine region of the southern hemisphere

The biological processes have been proposed as climate variability contributors. Dimethylsulfide (DMS) is the main biogenic sulfur compound in the atmosphere; it is mainly produced by the marine biosphere and plays an important role in the atmospheric sulfur cycle. Currently it is accepted that terrestrial biota not only adapts to environmental conditions but also influences them through regulations of the chemical composition of the atmosphere. In the present study we used a wavelet method to investigate the relationship between DMS, Low cloud cover (LCC), Ultraviolet Radiation A (UVA), Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the so called pristine zone of the Southern Hemisphere. We found that the series analyzed have different periodicities which can be associated with large scale climatic phenomena such as El Niño (ENSO) or the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), and/or to solar activity. Our results show an intermittent but sustained DMS-SST correlation and a DMSUVA anti correlation; but DMS-TSI and DMS-LCC show nonlinear relationships. The time-span of the series allow us to study only periodicities shorter than 11 years, then we limit our analysis to the possibility that solar radiation influences the Earth climate in periods shorter than the 11-year solar cycle. Our results also suggest a positive feedback interaction between DMS and solar radiation.     

ARIMA representation for daily solar irradiance and surface air temperature time series

Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models are used to compare long-range temporal variability of the total solar irradiance (TSI) at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) and surface air temperature series. The comparison shows that one and the same type of the model is applicable to represent the TSI and air temperature series. In terms of the model type surface air temperature imitates closely that for the TSI. This may mean that currently no other forcing to the climate system is capable to change the random walk type variability established by the varying activity of the rotating Sun. The result should inspire more detailed examination of the dependence of various climate series on short-range fluctuations of TSI.     

Possible link between multi-decadal climate cycles and periodic reversals of solar magnetic field polarity

The linkage between multi-decadal climate variability and activity of the sun has been long debated based upon observational evidence from a large number of instrumental and proxy records. It is difficult to evaluate the exact role of each of solar parameters on climate change since instrumentally measured solar related parameters such as Total Solar irradiance (TSI), Ultra Violet (UV), solar wind and Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs) fluxes are more or less synchronized and only extend back for several decades. Here we report tree-ring carbon-14 based record of 11-year/22-year solar cycles during the Maunder Minimum (17th century) and the early Medieval Maximum Period (9–10th century) to reconstruct the state of the sun and the flux of incoming GCRs. The result strongly indicates that the influence of solar cycles on climate is persistent beyond the period after instrumental observations were initiated. We find that the actual lengths of solar cycles vary depending on the status of long-term solar activity, and that periodicity of the surface air temperatures are also changing synchronously. Temperature variations over the 22-year cycles seem, in general, to be more significant than those associated with the 11-year cycles and in particular around the grand solar minima such as the Maunder Minimum (1645–1715 AD). The polarity dependence of cooling events found in this study suggests that the GCRs can not be excluded from the possible drivers of decadal to multi-decadal climate change.     

A possible long-term solar impact on air temperature in relation to solar motion

Summary Using the long-term relations between solar motion and solar activity, long-term relations between solar activity and air temperature variations on the Earth's surface have been studied. A long-term periodicity in the period range from 25 to 250 years, corresponding to the periodicity of solar motion and solar activity, has been found in four very long European surface air temperature series. The positions of the spectral peaks approximately obey the relation p_i=178.7/i, i=1, 2, ... . Similar long-term patterns of solar and geomagnetic activity and of global surface air temperature have been found in the years 1861 to 1990. The results indicate that the solar activity impact on the climate could be significant, and that the prolonged minimum of solar activity, predicted from solar motion for the next 2 – 3 decades, could decreace global air temperatures.     

Modelling the impact of solar variability on climate

Computer simulations of the impact on climate of solar variability generally fall into four categories. First, there are lower atmosphere GCM experiments, in which enhanced solar activity is represented by changes in spectrally integrated solar constant. Secondly, there are GCM studies of the dynamical response of the middle atmosphere to changes in solar ultraviolet, mainly concentrating on the northern hemisphere winter, and how these impact the troposphere. These studies have been instructive in providing an understanding of some of the mechanisms involved but, because of the very different nature of the assumptions made, give rather different suggestions as to potential patterns of change. In particular predicted zonal mean temperature changes in the lower stratosphere are usually of opposite sign in these two types of experiment. None of these GCM studies include interactive photochemistry and the third category of modelling work is concerned with the photochemical response of the middle atmosphere to enhanced solar ultraviolet. These generally employ 2D models to predict changes in ozone and other gaseous species. Recently it has been realised that the responses (to a variety of external forcings) of the lower and middle atmospheres are linked through both radiative and dynamical mechanisms and should not be viewed in isolation from each other. Thus the fourth type of modelling study, which is still in its infancy, attempts to represent solar variability by realistic changes in both irradiance and ozone concentrations. In this paper these various modelling studies are reviewed and some new results presented which confirm previous theoretical suggestions that, in the northern hemisphere winter, the atmosphere may respond to solar changes in a similar way as to the injection of volcanic aerosol. The implications of the results of the model studies for the detection of solar-induced climate change are discussed.     

Modelling the Northern Hemisphere temperature for solar cycles 24 and 25

It is uncertain whether the solar cycle 24 will have a high or a low sunspot maximum number. In its last revision the Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel indicates that the low prediction is the most likely. Also, solar cycle 25 is considered to present an equal or lower activity than cycle 24. In order to assess the possible effect of the solar activity on temperature, in the present work we attempt to model the tendency of the Northern Hemisphere temperature for the years 2009–2029, corresponding to solar cycles 24 and 25, using a thermodynamic climate model. We include as forcings the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) and the solar activity by means of the total solar irradiance, considering that the latter has not only a direct effect on climate, but also an indirect one through the modulation of the low cloud cover. We use two IPCC-2007 CO₂ scenarios, one with a high fossil consumption and other with a low use of fossil sources. Also we consider higher and lower solar activity conditions. We found that in all the performed experiments the inclusion of the solar activity produces a noticeable reduction in warming respect to the IPCC-2007 CO₂ scenarios. Such reduction goes between ～14% and ～44%. In order to evaluate the efficiency of the TCM, we use the root mean square (RMS) between the observed and model temperatures for the period 1980–2003. We find that the RMS for the experiment using the CO₂ as the only forcing is 0.06 °C,while for the experiment that includes also the solar activity it is higher, 0.13 °C.     

Long-term solar activity as a controlling factor for global warming in the 20th century

Such high-resolution indirect data on solar activity as the ¹⁴C and ¹⁰Be cosmogenic isotopes have been considered. The long-term solar activity cyclicity during the last millennium with periods of approximately 90 and 210 years, which can be related to substantial climatic warming and cooling events in this millennium, has been established based on an analysis of these data. It has been indicated that long-term recent climate warming can result from the effect of the ∼90- and ∼210-year solar cycles on the climatic system, which is characterized by the nonlinear dynamics.     

Changed relation between sunspot numbers,solar UV/EUV radiation and TSI during the declining phase of solar cycle 23

We study the mutual relation of sunspot numbers and several proxies of solar UV/EUV radiation, such as the F10.7 radio flux, the HeI 1083 nm equivalent width and the solar MgII core-to-wing ratio. It has been noted earlier that the relation between these solar activity parameters changed in 2001/2002, during a large enhancement of solar activity in the early declining phase of solar cycle 23. This enhancement (the secondary peak after the Gnevyshev gap) forms the maximum of solar UV/EUV parameters during solar cycle 23. We note that the changed mutual relation between sunspot numbers and UV/EUV proxies continues systematically during the whole declining phase of solar cycle 23, with the UV/EUV proxies attaining relatively larger values for the same sunspot number than during the several decennia prior to this time. We have also verified this evolution using the indirect solar UV/EUV proxy given by a globally averaged f₀(F2) frequency of the ionospheric F2 layer. We also note of a simultaneous, systematic change in the relation between the sunspot numbers and the total solar irradiance, which follow an exceptionally steep relation leading to a new minimum. Our results suggest that the reduction of sunspot magnetic fields (probably photospheric fields in general), started quite abruptly in 2001/2002. While these changes do not similarly affect the chromospheric UV/EUV emissions, the TSI suffers an even more dramatic reduction, which cannot be understood in terms of the photospheric field reduction only. However, the changes in TSI are seen to be simultaneous to those in sunspots, so most likely being due to the same ultimate cause.     

The influence of cosmic rays on terrestrial clouds and global warming

We analyse the new ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project) D2 cloud data to ascertain if a connection between cosmic-ray flux and cloud cover exists. Despite a previous finding that total-cloud factor and cosmic-ray fluxes were correlated, our results indicate that only the low-level cloud follows solar activity over the full period, 1983–94. Using several proxies for solar activity and the radiative forcing calculated by Ockert-Bell (1992) for the ISCCP cloud types, we estimate the possible impact that such a solar–terrestrial connection may have on climate. We conclude that, possibly excluding the most recent decades, much of the warming of the past century can be quantitatively accounted for by the direct and indirect effects of solar activity.     

The role of solar activity in observed climate changes in the 20th century

The possible contribution of solar and geomagnetic activity to changes in the characteristics of the main components of the climatic system—the ocean and the atmosphere—is considered and discussed. The mechanisms and models of the solar activity impact on thermobaric and climatic characteristics of the troposphere are presented. Based on a complex analysis of hydrometeorological data, it has been shown that changes in the temperature of the troposphere and the World Ocean reflect a response both to individual helio-geophysical perturbations and to long-term changes (1854–2015) of solar and geomagnetic activity. It is established that the climatic response to the influence of solar and geomagnetic activity is characterized by considerable spatio-temporal heterogeneity, is of a regional nature, and depends on the general circulation of the atmosphere. The largest contribution of solar activity to the global climate changes was observed in the period 1910–1943.     

Long-term Changes in Total Solar Irradiance and Their Predictions

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - The Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) index of solar activity attracts the attention of a wide scientific audience due to its direct influence on the Earth’s climate. A...     

A solar pattern in the longest temperature series from three stations in Europe

We analyze the longest temperature series from Prague, Bologna and Uccle. We partition daily minimum and maximum temperatures and their differences in two subsets as a function of high vs low solar activity, using the superimposed epochs method. Differences display patterns with significant amplitudes and time constants ～3 months. These are recognized in all stations and are stable against a change in the analyzed period. Amplitude of variations is ～1 °C. Differences between average annual values corresponding to high vs low activity periods are also ～1 °C. Solar activity may account for these long-term temperature variations. These variations also present local characteristics, which may render identification of a global correlation delicate. We discuss possible physical mechanisms by which solar variation could force climate changes (e.g. through solar activity itself, the EUV part of the solar flux, cosmic rays, the downward ionosphere-earth current density, etc.).     

Signatures of solar activity variability in meteorological parameters

Solar radiation (both total and in various wavelengths) varies at different time scales—from seconds to decades or centuries—as a consequence of solar activity. The energy received from the Sun is one of the natural driving forces of the Earth's atmosphere and since this energy is not constant, it has been argued that there must be some non-zero climate response to it. This response must be fully specified in order to improve our understanding of the climate system and the impact of anthropogenic activities on it. However, despite all the efforts, if and how subtle variations of solar radiation affect climate and weather still remains an unsolved puzzle. One key element that is very often taken as evidence of a response, is the similarity of periodicities between several solar activity indices and different meteorological parameters. The literature contains a long history of positive or negative correlations between weather and climate parameters like temperature, rainfall, droughts, etc. and solar activity cycles like the 27-day cycle, the prominent 11-year sunspot cycle, the 22-year Hale cycle and the Gleissberg cycle of 80–90 years. A review of these different cycles is provided as well as some of the correlative analyses between them and several stratospheric parameters (like stratospheric geopotential heights, temperature and ozone concentration) and tropospheric parameters (like temperature, rainfall, water level in lakes and river flooding, clouds) that point to a relationship of some kind. However, the suspicion on these relationships will remain as long as an indisputable physical mechanism, which might act to produce these correlations, is not available.     

The impact of solar radiation and solar activity on climate variability after the end of the last glaciation

This paper analyzes climate changes since the end of the last glaciations 19–20 thousand years ago, including the modern warm interglacial Holocene age, which started about 11.5 thousand years ago. The connection between the impact of the orbital effect and solar activity on the Earth’s climate is studied. This is important for estimation of the duration of the modern interglacial period. It is shown that there is significant inconsistency between temperature variations in Holocene, which is deduced from the large amount of recently obtained indirect data and the temperatures reproduced in the climate models. The trends of climate cooling in the Holocene on the whole and during the last 2000 years are investigated.     

Observations of Antarctic precipitable water vapor and its response to the solar activity based on GPS sensing

Predicting global climate change is a great challenge and must be based on a thorough understanding of how the climate system components behave. Precipitable water vapor (PWV) is one of the key components in determining and predicting the global climate system. It is well known that the local surface temperature and pressure have a direct influence on the production of PWV. However, the influence of solar activity on atmospheric dynamics and their physical mechanisms is still an open debate, where past studies are focused at mid-latitude regions. A new method of determining and quantifying the solar influence on PWV based on GPS observations to correlate the GPS PWV and total electron content (TEC) variations is proposed. Observed data from Scott Base (SBA) and McMurdo (MCM) stations from 2003 to 2005 have been used to study the response of PWV to solar activity. In the analysis, the effects of local conditions (wind speed and relative humidity) on the distribution of PWV are investigated. Results show significant correlation between PWV and solar activity for four geomagnetic storms, with correlation coefficients of 0.74, 0.77, 0.64 and 0.69, which are all significant at the 95% confidence level. There was no significant correlation between TEC and PWV changes during the absence of storms. On a monthly analysis, a strong relationship exists between PWV and TEC during storm-affected days, with correlation coefficients of 0.83 and 0.89 (99% confidence level) for SBA and MCM respectively. These indicate a statistically significant seasonal signal in the Antarctic region, which is very active (higher) during the summer and inactive (lower) for the winter periods.     

Impact of the geomagnetic field and solar radiation on climate change

Recent studies have shown that, in addition to the role of solar variability, past climate changes may have been connected with variations in the Earth??s magnetic field elements at various timescales. An analysis of variations in geomagnetic field elements, such as field intensity, reversals, and excursions, allowed us to establish a link between climate changes at various timescales over the last millennia. Of particular interest are sharp changes in the geomagnetic field intensity and short reversals of the magnetic poles (excursions). The beginning and termination of the examined geomagnetic excursions can be attributed to periods of climate change. In this study, we analyzed the possible link between short-term geomagnetic variability (jerks) and climate change, as well as the accelerated drift of the north magnetic pole and surface temperature variations. The results do not rule out the possibility that geomagnetic field variations which modulate the cosmic ray flux could have played a major role in climate change in addition to previously induced by solar radiation.     

Possible manifestation of nonlinear effects when solar activity affects climate changes

The response of the nonlinear oscillatory system to an insignificant external disturbance has been considered as applied to the effect of solar activity on climatic processes. Based on a simplified model, it has been indicated that the response of a nonlinear oscillator to a weak disturbing impact can be substantial. The oscillator fluctuation spectrum can decrease under the action of a disturbing factor. This means that the effect of an even weak solar or cosmophysical signal to the Earth’s climatic system can lead to significant climate variations if this system is nonlinear. However, it will be rather difficult to identify the solar—climatic nature of these variations because a linear relation between the cause and response is absent.     

The impact of cloud inhomogeneities on the Earth radiation budget: the 14 October 1989 I.C.E. convective cloud case study

Through their multiple interactions with radiation, clouds have an important impact on the climate. Nonetheless, the simulation of clouds in climate models is still coarse. The present evolution of modeling tends to a more realistic representation of the liquid water content; thus the problem of its subgrid scale distribution is crucial. For a convective cloud field observed during ICE 89, Landsat TM data (resolution: 30m) have been analyzed in order to quantify the respective influences of both the horizontal distribution of liquid water content and cloud shape on the Earth radiation budget. The cloud field was found to be rather well-represented by a stochastic distribution of hemi-ellipsoidal clouds whose horizontal aspect ratio is close to 2 and whose vertical aspect ratio decreases as the cloud cell area increases. For that particular cloud field, neglecting the influence of the cloud shape leads to an over-estimate of the outgoing longwave flux; in the shortwave, it leads to an over-estimate of the reflected flux for high solar elevations but strongly depends on cloud cell orientations for low elevations. On the other hand, neglecting the influence of cloud size distribution leads to systematic over-estimate of their impact on the shortwave radiation whereas the effect is close to zero in the thermal range. The overall effect of the heterogeneities is estimated to be of the order of 10 W m⁻² for the conditions of that Landsat picture (solar zenith angle 65○, cloud cover 70%); it might reach 40 W m⁻² for an overhead sun and overcast cloud conditions.     

Implications for the low latitude cloud formations from solar activity and the quasi-biennial oscillation

We examined the effect of the 11-year solar cycle and quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) on the ～27-day solar rotational period detected in tropical convective cloud activity. We analyzed the data of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) for AD1979–2004, dividing into four different cases by the combination of high and low solar activities in terms of the 11-year variation, and easterly and westerly stratospheric winds associated with QBO. As a result, ～27-day variation has been most significantly detected in high solar activity period around the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool. Based on correlation analysis, we find that solar rotation signal can explain 10–20% of OLR variability around the tropical warm pool region during the high solar activity period. The spatial distribution has been, however, apparently different according to the phases of QBO. It is suggested that the 11-year solar cycle and stratospheric QBO have a possibility to cause large-scale oceanic dipole phenomena.     

Phase-coherent oscillatory modes in solar and geomagnetic activity and climate variability

Oscillatory modes with the period of approximately 7–8 yr were detected in monthly time series of sunspot numbers, geomagnetic activity aa index, NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) index and near-surface air temperature from several mid-latitude European locations. Instantaneous phases of the modes underwent synchronization analysis and their statistically significant phase coherence, beginning from 1950s, has been observed. Thus the statistical evidence for a coupling between solar/geomagnetic activity and climate variability has been obtained from continuous monthly data, independent of the season, however, confined to the temporal scale related to oscillatory periods about 7–8 yr.