A new solar activity parameter and the strength of 5-cycle periodicity

A weak 5-cycle periodicity (r = −0.64) is found in the maximum amplitudes of the modern era sunspot cycles (11–23), slightly stronger than the 8-cycle (Gleissberg) periodicity (r = 0.60).We propose a new parameter called ‘effective duration’, defined as the total sunspot numbers in a cycle divided by the maximum amplitude. This parameter has two advantages: one is that it is almost independent of the exact definition of minimum timing; another is that the maximum amplitude is found to be highly correlated (r = 0.86) with this parameter five cycles before, when applied to the smoothed monthly mean sunspot numbers in modern era.Implied is that this parameter carries some information of the amplitude five cycles later, and may become one of the parameters to study solar activity and the theory of solar dynamo. With the relationship above, the amplitude of cycle 24 is estimated to be 115.7 ± 19.7, where the error is the standard error.     

Long-Period Cycles of the Sun's Activity Recorded in Direct Solar Data and Proxies

Different records of solar activity (Wolf and group sunspot number, data on cosmogenic isotopes, historic data) were analyzed by means of modern statistical methods, including one especially developed for this purpose. It was confirmed that two long-term variations in solar activity – the cycles of Gleissberg and Suess – can be distinguished at least during the last millennium. The results also show that the century-type cycle of Gleissberg has a wide frequency band with a double structure consisting of 50–80 years and 90–140 year periodicities. The structure of the Suess cycle is less complex showing a variation with a period of 170–260 years. Strong variability in Gleissberg and Suess frequency bands was found in northern hemisphere temperature multiproxy that confirms the existence of a long-term relationship between solar activity and terrestial climate.     

Solar modulation of galactic cosmic rays during 19–23 solar cycles

We make a detailed analysis of cross-correlation and time-lag between monthly data of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) intensity and different solar activity indices (e.g., sunspot number, sunspot area, green coronal Fe line and 10.7 cm solar radio flux) during 19–23 solar cycles. GCRs time-series data from Kiel neutron monitor station and solar data from the last 50 years period, covering five solar cycles (19–23), and alternating solar polarity states (i.e., five A < 0 and four A > 0) have been investigated. We find a clear asymmetry in the cross-correlation between GCRs and solar activity indicators for both odd and even-numbered solar cycles. The time-lags between GCRs and solar parameters are found different in different solar cycles as well as in the opposite polarity states (A < 0 and A > 0) within the same solar cycle. Possible explanations of the observed results are discussed in light of modulation models, including drift effects.     

“TOY” Dynamo to Describe the Long-Term Solar Activity Cycles

Secular variations of solar activity (Gleissberg and Suess cycles) have approximately 80 – 130 and 200 year periods. They are manifested in both observed and proxy data. Here, we show that the basic dynamic features of the Schwabe cycle (asymmetry of its growth and decay phases) and secular cycles (multi-frequency structure and irregular Grand-extremes), as well as a connection between them, can be described by parameter tuning of the electromechanical “toy” dynamo system which has been widely used to model the inversions of the geomagnetic field. An amplitude-frequency diagram for the model magnetic flux has the same shape as the directly observed and reconstructed sunspot area indices. An erratum to this article is available at .     

The cyclic variation of the outburst recurrence time in GRS 1747–312

We present an analysis of the long-term evolution of outbursts in the neutron star soft X-ray transient GRS 1747–312. Observations taken from ASM/RXTE, in the 1.5–12 keV passband, are utilized. We reveal a cyclic behavior in the residuals of the outburst recurrence time with respect to the mean value of T_C = 136 ± 2 days. The profile of this cycle is approximately sinusoidal; the remaining cycle-to-cycle fluctuations possess a considerably smaller amplitude. We find that, although the peak flux of the outbursts displays a significant scatter at a given phase of the cycle, the most luminous outbursts occur after the longest T_C. The fluence displays a large scatter for the individual outbursts and tends to decrease with time. We argue that although the cycle-length of ～5.4 yr is compatible with that of the presumed magnetic activity of the late-type donor, it cannot be explained by variations of the mass outflow from the donor to the disk. In our interpretation, the stellar activity is translated to variations of T_C via interaction of the magnetic field of the spots on the donor with the magnetic field of the disk. This gives rise to a variable efficiency of the removal of the angular momentum from the quiescent disk during the activity cycle of the donor. This mechanism can be strengthened by accompanying variations of the radius of the optically thin advection-dominated accretion flow in quiescence. We show that the peak mass accretion rate onto the neutron star in the individual outbursts of GRS 1747–312 is considerably more stable than in two other similar systems with frequent outbursts, Aql X-1 and 4U 1608–52; this allows the cyclic modulation of T_C to show itself in GRS 1747–312.     

Study of large solar energetic particle events with halo coronal mass ejections and their associated solar flares

The purpose of the present study is to investigate the association of solar energetic particle (SEP) events with halo coronal mass ejections (CME) and with their associated solar flares during the period 1997–2014 (solar cycle 23 and 24). We have found that halo CMEs are more effective in producing SEP events. The occurrence probability and peak fluxes of SEPs strongly depend on the halo CMEs speed (V) as follows. The highest associations, 56% for occurrence probability and 90% for average peak fluxes, are found for the halo CMEs with V> 1400 km s⁻¹ but the lowest associations, 20% for occurrence probability and 5% for average peak fluxes, are found for halo CMEs with speed range 600 ≤ V ≤ 1000 km s⁻¹. We have also examined the relationship between SEP events and halo CME associated solar flares and found that 73% of events are associated with western solar flares while only 27% are with eastern solar flares. For longitudinal study, 0–20° belt is found to be more dominant for the SEP events. The association of SEP events with latitudinal solar flares is also examined in the study. 51% of events are associated with those halo CMEs associated solar flares which occur in the southern hemisphere of the Sun while 49% are with those solar flares that occur in the northern hemisphere of the Sun. Also, 10–20° latitudinal belt is found to be likely associated with the SEP events. Further, 45% of SEP events are associated with M-class solar flares while 44% and 11% are with X and C-class respectively. Maximum number of SEP events are found for the fast halo CME associated X- class solar flares (68%) than M and C- class solar flares.     

Reading the climate record of the martian polar layered deposits

The martian polar regions have layered deposits of ice and dust. The stratigraphy of these deposits is exposed within scarps and trough walls and is thought to have formed due to climate variations in the past. Insolation has varied significantly over time and caused dramatic changes in climate, but it has remained unclear whether insolation variations could be linked to the stratigraphic record. We present a model of layer formation based on physical processes that expresses polar deposition rates of ice and dust in terms of insolation. In this model, layer formation is controlled by the insolation record, and dust-rich layers form by two mechanisms: (1) increased summer sublimation during high obliquity, and (2) variations in the polar deposition of dust modulated by obliquity variations. The model is simple, yet physically plausible, and allows for investigations of the climate control of the polar layered deposits (PLD). We compare the model to a stratigraphic column obtained from the north polar layered deposits (NPLD) (Fishbaugh, K.E., Hvidberg, C.S., Byrne, S., Russel, P.S., Herkenhoff, K.E., Winstrup, M., Kirk, R. [2010a]. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L07201) and show that the model can be tuned to reproduce complex layer sequences. The comparison with observations cannot uniquely constrain the PLD chronology, and it is limited by our interpretation of the observed stratigraphic column as a proxy for NPLD composition. We identified, however, a set of parameters that provides a chronology of the NPLD tied to the insolation record and consistently explains layer formation in accordance with observations of NPLD stratigraphy. This model dates the top 500 m of the NPLD back to ～1 million years with an average net deposition rate of ice and dust of 0.55 mm a^?1. The model stratigraphy contains a quasi-periodic ～30 m cycle, similar to a previously suggested cycle in brightness profiles from the NPLD (Laskar, J., Levrard, B., Mustard, F. [2002]. Nature, 419, 375–377; Milkovich, S., Head, J.W. [2005]. J. Geophys. Res. 110), but here related to half of the obliquity cycles of 120 and 99 kyr and resulting from a combination of the two layer formation mechanisms. Further investigations of the non-linear insolation control of PLD formation should consider data from other geographical locations and include radar data and other stratigraphic datasets that can constrain the composition and stratigraphy of the NPLD layers.     

Periodicity of flare index revisited using the Hilbert–Huang transform method

Using the Hilbert–Huang Transform (HHT) method, we investigate the periodicity in the monthly mean flare indices from 1966 to 2007 (corresponding to almost four complete solar cycles), calculated by T. Atac and A. Ozguc. The results show as following. (1) The periods of 9.37 ± 2.53, 11.8 ± 0.172 and 23.6 ± 0.316 years are found to be statistically significant in the flare index. The most eminent period is 9.37 ± 2.53 years. (2) Other periods of 0.237 ± 0.196 years (86.6 ± 71.6 days), 0.525 ± 0.0508 years (191 ± 18.5 days), 1.05 ± 0.478 years (383 ± 174 days) and 2.37 ± 0.395 years are below the 99% confidence level line, suggesting they are due to stochastic random noise.     

Spectroscopic and photometric study of the contact binary BO CVn

We present the results of the study of the contact binary system BO CVn. We have obtained physical parameters of the components based on combined analysis of new, multi-color light curves and spectroscopic mass ratio. This is the first time the latter has been determined for this object. We derived the contact configuration for the system with a very high filling factor of about 88%. We were able to reproduce the observed light curve, namely the flat bottom of the secondary minimum, only if a third light has been added into the list of free parameters. The resulting third light contribution is significant, about 20–24%, while the absolute parameters of components are: M₁ = 1.16, M₂ = 0.39, R₁ = 1.62 and R₂ = 1.00 (in solar units).The O-C diagram shows an upward parabola which, under the conservative mass transfer assumption, would correspond to a mass transfer rate of dM/dt = 6.3 × 10^?8M_⊙/yr, matter being transferred from the less massive component to the more massive one. No cyclic, short-period variations have been found in the O-C diagram (but longer-term variations remain a possibility).     

New wind measurements in Venus’ lower mesosphere from visible spectroscopy

The dynamics of Venus’ mesosphere (70–110 km) is characterized by the superposition of two different wind regimes: (1) Venus’ retrograde superrotation; (2) a sub-solar to anti-solar (SS–AS) flow pattern, driven by solar EUV heating on the sunlit hemisphere. Here, we report on new ground-based velocity measurements in the lower part of the mesosphere. We took advantage of two essentially symmetric Venus elongations in 2001 and 2002 to perform high-resolution Doppler spectroscopy (R=120,000) in ¹²C¹⁶O₂ visible lines of the 5ν₃ band and in a few solar Fraunhofer lines near 8700 Å. These measurements, mapped over several points on Venus’ illuminated hemisphere, probe the region of cloud tops. More precisely, the solar Fraunhofer lines sample levels a few kilometers below the UV features (i.e. near ∼67 km), while the CO₂ lines probe an altitude higher by about 7 km. The wind field over Venus’ disk is retrieved with an rms uncertainty of 15–25 m s⁻¹ on individual measurements. Kinematical fit to a one- or two-component circulation model indicates the dominance of the zonal retrograde flow with a mean equatorial velocity of ∼75 m s⁻¹, exhibiting very strong day-to-day variations (±65 m s⁻¹). Results are very consistent for the two kinds of lines, suggesting a negligible vertical wind shear over 67–74 km. The SS–AS flow is not detected in single-day observations, but combining the results from all data suggests that this component may invade the lower mesosphere with a ∼40 m s⁻¹ velocity.     

Latest results on Jovian disk X-rays from XMM-Newton

We present the results of a spectral study of the soft X-ray emission (0.2–2.5 keV) from low-latitude (‘disk’) regions of Jupiter. The data were obtained during two observing campaigns with XMM-Newton in April and November 2003. While the level of the emission remained approximately the same between April and the first half of the November observation, the second part of the latter shows an enhancement by about 40% in the 0.2–2.5 keV flux. A very similar, and apparently correlated increase, in time and scale, was observed in the solar X-ray and EUV flux.The months of October and November 2003 saw a period of particularly intense solar activity, which appears reflected in the behavior of the soft X-rays from Jupiter's disk. The X-ray spectra, from the XMM-Newton EPIC CCD cameras, are all well fitted by a coronal model with temperatures in the range 0.4–0.5 keV, with additional line emission from Mg XI (1.35 keV) and Si XIII (1.86 keV): these are characteristic lines of solar X-ray spectra at maximum activity and during flares.The XMM-Newton observations lend further support to the theory that Jupiter's disk X-ray emission is controlled by the Sun, and may be produced in large part by scattering, elastic and fluorescent, of solar X-rays in the upper atmosphere of the planet.     

A phenomenological study of the timing of solar activity minima of the last millennium through a physical modeling of the Sun–Planets Interaction

We numerically integrate the Sun’s orbital movement around the barycenter of the solar system under the persistent perturbation of the planets from the epoch J2000.0, backward for about one millennium, and forward for another millennium to 3000 AD. Under the Sun–Planets Interaction (SPI) framework and interpretation of Wolff and Patrone (2010), we calculated the corresponding variations of the most important storage of the specific potential energy (PE) within the Sun that could be released by the exchanges between two rotating, fluid-mass elements that conserve its angular momentum. This energy comes about as a result of the roto-translational dynamics of the cell around the solar system barycenter. We find that the maximum variations of this PE storage correspond remarkably well with the occurrences of well-documented Grand Minima (GM) solar events throughout the available proxy solar magnetic activity records for the past 1000 yr. It is also clear that the maximum changes in PE precede the GM events in that we can identify precursor warnings to the imminent weakening of solar activity for an extended period. The dynamical explanation of these PE minima is connected to the minima of the Sun’s position relative to the barycenter as well as the significant amount of time the Sun’s inertial motion revolving near and close to the barycenter. We presented our calculation of PE forward by another 1000 yr until 3000 AD. If the assumption of the solar activity minima corresponding to PE minima is correct, then we can identify quite a few significant future solar activity GM events with a clustering of PE minima pulses starting at around 2150 AD, 2310 AD, 2500 AD, 2700 AD and 2850 AD.     

Ultraviolet spectral variations of FK Comae and V 1794 Cygni

Ultraviolet spectra of FK Comae and V1794 Cygni observed with the Hubble Space Telescope Cosmic Origins Spectrograph (HST COS) and the International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE) satellites were analyzed for the period 1981–2011. Temporal variations of line fluxes of the O I 1306 Å, C II 1336 Å, C IV 1550 Å, He II 1640 Å and Mg II k & h 2800 Å, produced in the transition regions and chromospheres of these stars, imply variations in density and temperature changes in the line emitting regions as a result of the rapid rotation and magnetic fields responsible for stellar activity. Results are consistent with the models of Ramsey et al. (1981), Oliveira and Foing (1999), and Korhonen et al. (2000).     

Characteristics of the Expansion of Magnetic Funnels in Solar Quiet Regions

Via the potential field extrapolation of the observed photospheric magnetic field, the structure of the photospheric magnetic fields above solar quiet regions is renewed. As revealed by the result, below 20 Mm the open magnetic lines exhibit many obvious small funnel structures. These funnels expand with height and at the height of about 20 Mm they combine into large funnel structures. By a systematic study of the tendency of change of the cross section areas of funnels, it is discovered that the cross section areas of funnels in solar quiet regions expand approximately linearly. The velocity of expansion of magnetic funnels at rather low altitudes (< 20 Mm) is larger than that at high altitudes (> 20 Mm). This phenomenon has important significance for the two-dimensional numerical simulations of the origin of solar wind and the mass flow in magnetic loops. At the same time it is found that the number of closed magnetic lines decreases in the form of exponential function.     

Contamination of the 5394 Å spectral region by telluric lines

The spectral region in the vicinity of 5394 Å contains three prominent photospheric spectral lines, which can be used as a solar plasma diagnostic tool. The occurrence of telluric lines in this region is a potential source of systematic and random errors in these solar spectral lines. The goal of our investigation was to determine the telluric line contamination of this interesting spectral region. Several series of high-resolution solar spectra within an interval of about 4 Å around the 5394 Å wavelength were observed at different zenith distances of the Sun. Comparison of these spectra has permitted identification of telluric lines in this spectral interval. The observations were carried out with the horizontal solar spectrograph of the Heliophysical Observatory in Debrecen. Telluric feature blending was identified in the blue and red wings of the Fe I 5393.2 Å line, and in the local continuum of the Mn I 5394.7 Å line. The blue wing of the Fe I 5395.2 Å line is contaminated by a weak telluric feature too. The red continuum of this line has a more prominent telluric contamination. A dozen of water vapor telluric lines that determined the observed telluric features were identified in this spectral interval. The profiles of three telluric lines that have a significant influence on both the profiles of solar spectral lines and the level of local continuum were derived, and the variation of their parameters (equivalent width and central depth) with air mass were analyzed.     

Penetration of nearby supernova dust in the inner solar system

We investigate the method by which nearby supernovae – within a few tens of pc of the solar system – can penetrate the solar system and deposit live radioactivities on earth. The radioactive isotopic signatures that could potentially leave an observable geological imprint are in the form of refractory metals; consequently, it is likely they would arrive in the form of supernova-produced dust grains. Such grains can penetrate into the solar system more easily than the bulk supernova plasma, which gets stalled and deflected near the solar system due to the solar wind plasma pressure. We therefore examine the motion of charged grains as they decouple from the supernova plasma and are influenced by the solar magnetic, radiation, and gravitational fields. We characterize the dust trajectories with analytical approximations which display the roles of grain size, initial velocity, and surface voltage. These results are verified with full numerical simulations for wide ranges of dust properties. We find that supernova dust grains traverse the inner solar system nearly undeflected, if the incoming grain velocity – which we take to be that of the incident supernova remnant – is comparable to the solar wind speeds and much larger than the escape velocity at 1 AU. Consequently, the dust penetration to 1 AU has essentially 100% transmission probability and the dust capture onto the earth should have a geometric cross section. Our results cast in a new light the terrestrial deposition of radioisotopes from nearby supernovae in the geological past. For explosions beyond ～10 pc from earth, dust grains can still deliver supernova ejecta to earth, and thus the amount of supernova material deposited is set by the efficiency of dust condensation and survival in supernovae. Turning the problem around, we use observations of live ⁶⁰Fe in both deep-ocean and lunar samples to infer a conservative lower bound iron condensation efficiency of M_dust,Fe/M_tot,Fe ? 4  × 10^?4 for the supernova which apparently produced these species 2–3 Myr ago.     

The Sunspot and Auroral Activity Cycle Derived from Korean Historical Records of the 11th–18th Century

Historical records of sunspots and aurorae are valuable information to examine variations of solar activity and the terrestrial climate on a long-term scale. We have collected the historical records of Korea during the 11th–18th century. Through a power-spectrum analysis of these data, we have found solar activity cycles, which coincide with the Schwabe cycle and the Gleissberg cycle on short and long-term periods, respectively.     

Hemispheric asymmetry of sunspot area in solar cycle 23 and rising phase of solar cycle 24: Comparison of three data sets

Analysis of long-term solar data from different observatories is required to compare and confirm the various level of solar activity in depth. In this paper, we study the north–south asymmetry of monthly mean sunspot area distribution during the cycle-23 and rising phase of cycle-24 using the data from Kodaikanal Observatory (KO), Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) and Solar Optical Observing Network (SOON). Our analysis confirmed the double peak behavior of solar cycle-23 and the dominance of southern hemisphere in all the sunspot area data obtained from three different resources. The analysis also showed that there is a 5–6 months time delay in the activity levels of two hemispheres. Furthermore, the wavelet analysis carried on the same data sets showed several known periodicities (e.g., 170–180 days, 2.1 year) in the north–south difference of sunspot area data. The temporal occurrence of these periods is also the same in all the three data sets. These results could help in understanding the underlying mechanism of north–south asymmetry of solar activity.     

A Kinematical Study of the Galaxy Based on the Revised Hipparcos Astrometric Data

On the basis of the revised Hipparcos data recently released, the zero-point of the period-luminosity relation for classical cepheids is reexamined. Fitting the proper motion and radial velocity data via an axisymmetric model, the Oort constants and circular rotation velocity of the LSR are calculated to obtain the Galactocentric distance of the Sun, R₀ = 8.0 ± 0.8 kpc. From the rotation curve in solar neighborhood, the existence of weak ellipticity of the Galactic potential is found. Adopting a simple asymmetric model, we have obtained the ellipticity ∈(R₀) = 0.067 ± 0.036 at the Sun, while the minor axis points to φ_b = 32° ± 15°.     

Spectral behavior of the symbiotic nova AG Pegasi observed with IUE and HST

Ultraviolet spectra from the International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE) and from the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) of the symbiotic novae AG Peg during the period 1978–1996 are analyzed. Some spectra showing the modulations of spectral lines at different times are presented. We determined the reddening from the 2200 Å feature, finding that E(B−V) = 0.10 ± 0.02. We studied N IV] at 1486 Å, C IV 1550 Å, and O III] at 1660 Å, produced in the fast wind from the hot white dwarf. The mean wind velocity of the three emission lines is 1300 km s⁻¹ (FWHM). The mean wind mass loss rate is ∼6 × 10⁻⁷ M_⊙ yr⁻¹. The mean temperature is ∼6.5 × 10⁵ K. The mean ultraviolet luminosity is ∼5 × 10³³ erg s⁻¹. The modulations of line fluxes in the emitting region at different times are attributed to the variations of density and temperature of the ejected matter as a result of variations in the rate of mass loss.