A discussion on improving typhoon observation through radar by scanning the negative elevation angle

Certain feasibilities and features were discussed in typhoon detection by radar with a negative elevation angle according to the relationship between the remote detecting range and the elevation angle of the new generation weather radar, in order to rectify the disadvantages of detecting capability for remote low-level echo with a lowest elevation angle of 0.5° in the common detecting mode. The data obtained from detecting the typhoon of Haitang and Changmi with radar for their negative elevation angles and the observed data for the common lowest elevation angle of 0.5° were compared to each other. The results showed that the detection of remote low level cloud system with radar could be improved by using the negative elevation angle, and the structure and the evolution trend of a typhoon could be better judged. The increasing degree of detection for negative elevation angles in the current volume scanning mode should be helpful for predicting the intensity and developing trend of windstorms, to further improve the capability of warning and nowcasting. The detection of negative elevation angle could also help reveal the development and change of typhoon＇s low level cloud system. As far as the typhoons of Haitang and Changmi were concerned, the detecting area of Changmi was increased by 1.09 times with the negative elevation angle of 0.31°, compared with the elevation angle of 0.48° if the threshold value for the sea echo within 100 km was eliminated. Several volume scans of Haitang were increased by 2.1%-7.9% for the negative elevation angle of 0.36° compared with the elevation angle of 0.49° . Therefore, the radar detecting capability of typhoons could be improved by the detection of negative elevation angles to some extent. This could make up for the disadvantages of a low detecting capability for remote low-level echo in the common detecting mode. At the same time, a negative elevation angle could be easily influenced by the ground clutter and the close sea wave clutter which interfered with the asses     

Rainfall interception by sand-stabilizing shrubs related to crown structure

On the edge of the Tengger Desert in northern China,revegetation has changed the landscape from moving dunes to stabilized dunes covered by shrubs,which further modifies the pattern of rainfall redistribution.To study rainfall interception loss by shrubs and its relationship to rainfall properties and crown structure,throughfalls passing through crowns of Artemisia ordosica Krash.and Caragana korshinskii Kom.were measured using nine PVC cups under the canopy of each of the two shrubs during 73 rain events over a three-year period,with total rainfall of 260.9 mm.Interception losses of gross rainfall by A.ordosica and C.korshinskii account for 15% and 27% of the total on a crown area basis,and 6% and 11% on a ground area basis,respectively.Individual throughfall(T) and interception(I) were significantly related to rainfall amount(Pg),duration(D),and intensity(R).Ratios of throughfall to rainfall(T/Pg) and interception to rainfall(I/Pg) were not only significantly related to Pg,D,and R,but also to shrub species,and interactions of species with crown volume(CV) and leaf area index(LAI).Under most rain events,interceptions by C.korshinskii with greater CV and LAI were significantly higher than those by A.ordosica,and more rainfall interception occurred at locations closer to the stems of the two shrubs.For C.korshinskii,I/Pg had a significant positive linear relation with CV and LAI,while T/Pg had a significant negative linear relation with them.CV has a greater influence on T/Pg and I/Pg than does LAI.Using a regression method,canopy water storage capacities are estimated to be 0.52 and 0.68 mm,and free throughfall coefficient to be 0.62 and 0.47 for A.ordosica and C.korshinskii,respectively.     

Increase in medium-size rainfall events will enhance the C-sequestration capacity of biological soil crusts

Biological soil crusts(BSCs) play important roles in the carbon(C) balance in arid regions. Net C balance of BSCs is strongly dependent on rainfall and consequent activation of microbes in the BSCs. The compensation-rainfall size for BSCs(the minimum rainfall amount for a positive net C balance) is assumed to be different with BSCs of different developmental stages. A field experiment with simulated rainfall amount(SRA) of 0, 1, 5, 10, 20, and 40 mm was conducted to examine the C fluxes and compensation-rainfall size of BSCs in different parts of fixed dunes in the ecotone between the Badain Jaran Desert and the Minqin Oasis. We found algae-lichen crust on the interdunes and crest, algae crust on the leeward side, and lichen-moss crust on the windward. Even a small rainfall(1 mm) can activate both photosynthesis and respiration of all types of BSCs. The gross ecosystem production, ecosystem respiration, and net ecosystem exchange were significantly affected by SRA, hours after the simulated rainfall, position on a dune, and their interactions. The rapid activation of photosynthesis provides a C source and therefore could be responsible for the increase of C efflux after each rewetting. C-uptake and-emission capacity of all the BSCs positively correlated with rainfall size, with the lowest C fluxes on the leeward side. The compensation rainfall for a net C uptake was 3.80, 15.54, 8.62, and 1.88 mm for BSCs on the interdunes, the leeward side, the crest, and the windward side, respectively. The whole dune started to show a net C uptake with an SRA of 5 mm and maximized with an SRA of about 30 mm. The compensation-rainfall size is negatively correlated with chlorophyll content. Our results suggest that BSCs will be favored in terms of C balance, and sand dune stabilization could be sustained with an increasing frequency of 5-10 mm rainfall events in the desert-oasis transitional zone.-     

Vegetation greenness modeling in response to climate change for Northeast Thailand

In Northeast Thailand, the climate change has resulted in erratic rainfall and tem- perature patterns. The region has experienced both periods of drought and seasonal floods with the increasing severity. This study investigated the seasonal variation of vegetation greenness based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index （NDVI） in major land cover types in the region. An assessment of the relationship between climate patterns and vegeta- tion conditions observed from NDVI was made. NDVI data were collected from year 2001 to 2009 using multi-temporal Terra MODIS Vegetation Indices Product （MOD13Q1）. NDVI pro- files were developed to measure vegetation dynamics and variation according to land cover types. Meteorological information, i.e. rainfall and temperature, for a 30 year time span from 1980 to 2009 was analyzed for their patterns. Furthermore, the data taken from the period of 2001-2009, were digitally encoded into GIS database and the spatial patterns of monthly rainfall and temperature maps were generated based on kriging technique. The results showed a decreasing trend in NDVI values for both deciduous and evergreen forests. The highest productivity and biomass were observed in dry evergreen forests and the lowest in paddy fields. Temperature was found to be increasing slightly from 1980 to 2009 while no significant trends in rainfall amounts were observed. In dry evergreen forest, NDVI was not correlated with rainfall but was significant negatively correlated with temperature. These re- sults indicated that the overall productivity in dry evergreen forest was affected by increasing temperatures. A vegetation greenness model was developed from correlations between NDVI and meteorological data using linear regression. The model could be used to observe the change in vegetation greenness and dynamics affected by temperature and rainfall.     

Impact of changes in precipitation pattern on food supply in a monsoon interlacing area and its mechanism:A case study of Yunnan Province

Following climate change, changes in precipitation patterns and food security are major challenges faced by humans. However, research on how these changes in precipitation pattern impacts food supply is limited. This study aims to elucidate this impact and response mechanisms using precipitation data of a climate change-sensitive confluence zone of the southwest and southeast monsoons in Yunnan Province from 1988 to 2018. The results revealed that the precipitation pattern could be divided into three periods: abundant precipitation(Stage I, from 1988 to 2004), decreased precipitation(Stage II, from 2005 to 2015), and drought recovery(Stage III, from 2016 to 2018). Following the transition from Stage I to Stage II and from Stage II to Stage III, the area of precipitation changed significantly, accounting for 15.07%, 13.87%, and 16.53% of Yunnan's total area, for Stages I, II, and III, respectively. At the provincial level, a significant positive correlation was observed between precipitation and food production(r = 0.535, P 0.01), and the correlation coefficient between precipitation and grain yield was higher than that between precipitation and meat and milk production. Based on a precipitation–grain yield transect and breakpoint detection method, key precipitation thresholds affecting grain yield were estimated as 700 and 1500 mm, respectively; when precipitation was 700, 700–1500, and ≥1500 mm, the correlation coefficients between precipitation and grain yield were 0.448(P 0.01), 0.370(P 0.01), and –0.229(P 0.05), respectively. Based on the precipitation thresholds, Yunnan Province can be divided into precipitation surplus, precipitation equilibrium, and precipitation deficit regions, corresponding countermeasures to stabilize grain yield were proposed for each of these regions. The threshold effect of precipitation on grain yield is controlled by molecular-level water–crop mechanisms, in which reactive oxygen species, a by-product of plant aerobic metabolism, plays a key regulatory role.     

基于电流理论识别多物种扩散廊道的优先度——以西南西双版纳为例（英文）

Ecological corridor networks can efficiently improve regional landscape connectivity. Corridors for multiple faunal species movements are receiving increasing attention and graph theory is considered a promising way to explore landscape connectivity. In Xishuangbanna, the circuit theory was applied to explore the corridor networks for biodiversity for the first time. In addition, disturbances caused by the road network and the protection efficiency of National Nature Reserves and planned area for corridors were evaluated. Results indicated that the regional corridor networks could be estimated using a modified circuit method and Zonation model. Spatially, the key corridors were concentrated in the central-western, southeastern and northern regions. We detected 66 main intersections between key corridors and the road buffer. Of these points, 65% are forest, 23% grassland and 12% farmland. More than half of the area of National Nature Reserves constituted the top 50% of the corridors, and the planned corridor areas could efficiently protect some key corridors. However, these reserves only protected about 17% of regional key corridors, and the corridor conservation area in the western and northern regions were absent. The issues addressed in our study aided in the elucidation of the importance of regional landscape connectivity assessments and operational approaches in conservation planning.     

泾河中游全新世古洪水沉积学与水文学研究(英文)

Palaeo-hydrological field investigation was carried out in the middle reaches of the Jinghe River. A set of palaeoflood slackwater deposit beds was identified in the Holocene loess-soil sequence in the riverbanks. The sediment samples were collected from the profile, and the particle-size distribution, magnetic susceptibility, loss-on-ignition were analyzed in laboratory. The analytical results showed that the palaeoflood slackwater deposits have re-corded extraordinary flood events in the Jinghe River valley. According to stratigraphic cor-relation and OSL dating, the palaeoflood events were dated to 4100-4000 a BP. The pa-laeoflood peak discharges were estimated to be 19,410-22,280 m3/s by using the hydro-logical model and checked by different approaches. These results have the flood data se-quence of the Jinghe River extended to 10,000-year time-scale. It provided significant data for hydraulic engineering and for mitigation of flood hazards in the Jinghe River drainage basin.     

黄土丘陵区雨强对水流含沙量的影响

To study the effects of changes in the rainfall intensity on sediment concentrations in the Loess Plateau,the observed rainfall intensities and sediment concentrations from three typical small watersheds were used to analyze the relationship between these parameters.The results showed that the sediment concentration generally increased with the increasing rainfall intensity on slope scale.However,at watershed scale,a significant threshold phenomenon was observed for the effects of the rainfall intensity on the sediment concentration.When the rainfall intensity exceeds the threshold,the flood sediment concentration will no longer increase with the increase in the rainfall intensity.The rainfall intensity threshold increased with increasing vegetation coverage.The rainfall intensity threshold was 10–15 mm/h during 1956–1969,reached 20 mm/h from 1990 to 1997 and is approximately 40 mm/h at present.Due to a rainfall intensity of 10–15 mm/h almost happened every year,the vegetation did not change much from the 1950s to 1980s.Sediment yield mainly depends on soil erosion caused by surface flow,but the surface flow speed does not increase indefinitely with the increase in the flow discharge.Thus,the annual maximum sediment concentration of the tributaries in the loess area has been basically stable before the 1990s.     

黑龙江省冷害与全球变暖对水稻产量的影响(英文)

This study is focused on indexes for the rice chilling injury in Heilongjiang Province during 1960-2009. Firstly, we compared a new derived climate data weighted by rice planting density with the traditional method, and found that the new one is more reasonable to assess the impact of climate change on crop yields. Considering the frequency and intensity of rice chilling in the province, secondly, chilling indexes defined by meteorological, national and international levels were assessed. The result showed that the meteorological standards were suitable for the delayed-type injury, while the international one, so-called sum of Grow-ing Degree Day below threshold (GDDn-), characterized best the sterile-type chilling injury for rice. The explanation ability of the rice yield time series model including both injury types as two independent variables reached approximately 92% (p < 0.05). Finally, we concluded that the contribution rates of human and weather factors to rice yields are about 87.2% and 12.8% respectively, and as light increasing trend for sterile-type chilling injury was found during heading to flowing period in recent years, indicating a high chilling risk for rice planting in Heilongjiang Province in the future global warming.     

Influence of canopy and topographic position on soil moisture response to rainfall in a hilly catchment of Three Gorges Reservoir Area,China

Rainfall provides essential water resource for vegetation growth and acts as driving force for hydrologic process, bedrock weathering and nutrient cycle in the steep hilly catchment. But the effects of rainfall features, vegetation types, topography, and also their interactions on soil water movement and soil moisture dynamics are inadequately quantified. During the coupled wet and dry periods of the year 2018 to 2019, time-series soil moisture was monitored with 5-min interval resolution in a hilly catchment of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area in China. Three hillslopes covered with evergreen forest(EG), secondary deciduous forest mixed with shrubs(SDFS) and deforested pasture(DP) were selected, and two monitoring sites with five detected depths were established at upslope and downslope position, respectively. Several parameters expressing soil moisture response to rainfall event were evaluated, including wetting depth, cumulative rainfall amount and lag time before initial response, maximum increase of soil water storage, and transform ratio of rainwater to soil water. The results indicated that rainfall amount is the dominant rainfall variable controlling soil moisture response to rainfall event. No soil moisture response occurred when rainfall amounts was 8 mm, and all the deepest monitoring sensors detected soil moisture increase when total rainfall amounts was 30 mm. In the wet period, the cumulative rainfall amount to trigger surface soil moisture response in EG-up site was significantly higher than in other five sites. However, no significant difference in cumulative rainfall amount to trigger soil moisture response was observed among all study sites in dry period. Vegetation canopy interception reduced the transform ratio of rainwater to soil water, with a higher reduction in vegetation growth period than in other period. Also, interception of vegetation canopy resulted in a largeraccumulated rainfall amount and a longer lag time for initiating soil moisture response to rainfall. Generally, average cumulative rainfall amount for initiating soil moisture response during dry period of all sites(3.5–5.6 mm) were less than during wet period(5.7–19.7 mm). Forests captured more infiltration water compared with deforested pasture, showing the larger increments of both soil water storage for the whole soil profile and volumetric soil water content at 10 cm depth on two forest slopes. Topography dominated soil subsurface flow, proven by the evidences that less rainfall amount and less time was needed to trigger soil moisture response and also larger accumulated soil water storage increment in downslope site than in corresponding upslope site during heavy rainfall events.     

Representative rainfall thresholds for landslides in the Nepal Himalaya

Measuring some 2400 km in length, the Himalaya accommodate millions of people in northern India and Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan, and parts of other Asian nations. Every year, especially during monsoon rains, landslides and related natural events in these mountains cause tremendous damage to lives, property, infrastructure, and environment. In the context of the Himalaya, however, the rainfall thresholds for landslide initiation are not well understood. This paper describes regional aspects of rainfall thresholds for landslides in the Himalaya. Some 677 landslides occurring from 1951 to 2006 were studied to analyze rainfall thresholds. Out of the 677 landslides, however, only 193 associated with rainfall data were analyzed to yield a threshold relationship between rainfall intensity, rainfall duration, and landslide initiation. The threshold relationship fitted to the lower boundary of the field defined by landslide-triggering rainfall events is I = 73.90D^− 0.79 (I = rainfall intensity in mm h^− 1 and D = duration in hours), revealing that when the daily precipitation exceeds 144 mm, the risk of landslides on Himalayan mountain slopes is high. Normalized rainfall intensity–duration relationships and landslide initiation thresholds were established from the data after normalizing rainfall-intensity data with respect to mean annual precipitation (MAP) as an index in which N_I = 1.10D^− 0.59 (N_I = normalized intensity in h^− 1). Finally, the role of antecedent rainfall in causing landslides was also investigated by considering daily rainfall during failure and the cumulative rainfall to discover at what point antecedent rainfall plays an important role in Himalayan landslide processes. Rainfall thresholds presented in this paper are generalized so they can be used in landslide warning systems in the Nepal Himalaya.     

Validation of landslide hazard models using a semantic engine on online news

The objective of this work is twofold: (i) automatically setting up a landslide inventory using a state-of-the art semantic engine based on data mining on online news and (ii) evaluating if the automatically generated inventory can be used to validate a regional scale landslide warning system based on rainfall-thresholds.The semantic engine scanned internet news in real time in a 50 months test period. At the end of the process, an inventory of approximately 900 landslides was automatically set up for the Tuscany region (23,000 km², Italy). Using a completely automated procedure, the inventory was compared with the outputs of the regional landslide early warning system and a good correspondence was found, e.g. 84% of the events reported in the news is correctly identified by the warning system.On the basis of the obtained results, we conclude that automatic validation of landslide models using geolocalized landslide events feedback is possible. The source of data for validation can be obtained directly from the Internet channel using an appropriate semantic engine dedicated to perform a monitoring of the Google News aggregator.Moreover, validation statistics can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of the predictive model and, if deemed necessary, an update of the rainfall thresholds could be performed to obtain an improvement of the forecasting effectiveness of the warning system.In the near future, the proposed procedure could operate in continuous time and could allow for a periodic update of landslide hazard models and landslide early warning systems with minimum or none human intervention.     

Rainfall thresholds for landsliding in the Himalayas of Nepal

Landsliding of the hillslope regolith is an important source of sediment to the fluvial network in the unglaciated portions of the Himalayas of Nepal. These landslides can produce abrupt increases of up to three orders of magnitude in the fluvial sediment load in less than a day. An analysis of 3 years of daily sediment load and daily rainfall data defines a relationship between monsoonal rainfall and the triggering of landslides in the Annapurna region of Nepal. Two distinct rainfall thresholds, a seasonal accumulation and a daily total, must be overcome before landslides are initiated. To explore the geomorphological controls on these thresholds, we develop a slope stability model, driven by daily rainfall data, which accounts for changes in regolith moisture. The pattern of rainfall thresholds predicted by the model is similar to the field data, including the decrease in the daily rainfall threshold as the seasonal rainfall accumulation increases. Results from the model suggest that, for a given hillslope, regolith thickness determines the seasonal rainfall necessary for failure, whereas slope angle controls the daily rainfall required for failure.     

Determining landslide susceptibility in Central Taiwan from rainfall and six site factors using the analytical hierarchy process method

This work provides a landslide susceptibility assessment model for rainfall-induced landslides in Central Taiwan based on the analytical hierarchy process method. The model considers rainfall and six site factors, including slope, geology, vegetation, soil moisture, road development and historical landslides. The rainfall factor consists of 10-day antecedent rainfall and total rainfall during a rainfall event. Landslide susceptibility values are calculated for both before and after the beginning of a rainfall event. The 175 landslide cases with detailed field surveys are used to determine a landslide-susceptibility threshold value of 9.0. When a landslide susceptibility assessment value exceeds the threshold value, slope failure is likely to occur. Three zones with different landslide susceptibility levels (below, slightly above, and far above the threshold) are identified. The 9149 landslides caused by Typhoon Toraji in Central Taiwan are utilized to validate the study's result. Approximately, 0.2%, 0.4% and 15.3% of the typhoon-caused landslides are located in the three landslide susceptibility zones, respectively. Three villages with 6.6%, 0.4% and 4.9% of the landslides respectively are used to validate the accuracy of the landslide susceptibility map and analyze the main causes of landslides. The landslide susceptibility assessment model can be used to evaluate susceptibility relative to accumulated rainfall, and is useful as an early warning and landslide monitoring tool.     

A hydroclimatic threshold for landslide initiation on the North Shore Mountains of Vancouver, British Columbia

Landslides triggered by rainfall are the cause of thousands of deaths worldwide every year. One possible approach to limit the socioeconomic consequences of such events is the development of climatic thresholds for landslide initiation. In this paper, we propose a method that incorporates antecedent rainfall and streamflow data to develop a landslide initiation threshold for the North Shore Mountains of Vancouver, British Columbia. Hydroclimatic data were gathered for 18 storms that triggered landslides and 18 storms that did not. Discriminant function analysis separated the landslide-triggering storms from those storms that did not trigger landslides and selected the most meaningful variables that allow this separation. Discriminant functions were also developed for the landslide-triggering and nonlandslide-triggering storms. The difference of the discriminant scores, ΔCS, for both groups is a measure of landslide susceptibility during a storm. The variables identified that optimize the separation of the two storm groups are 4-week rainfall prior to a significant storm, 6-h rainfall during a storm, and the number of hours 1 m³/s discharge was exceeded at Mackay Creek during a storm. Three thresholds were identified. The Landslide Warning Threshold (LWT) is reached when ΔCS is −1. The Conditional Landslide Initiation Threshold (CTL_I) is reached when ΔCS is zero, and it implies that landslides are likely if 4 mm/h rainfall intensity is exceeded at which point the Imminent Landslide Initiation Threshold (ITL_I) is reached. The LWT allows time for the issuance of a landslide advisory and to move personnel out of hazardous areas. The methodology proposed in this paper can be transferred to other regions worldwide where type and quality of data are appropriate for this type of analysis.     

Empirical models of rain-spells characteristics – A case study of a Mediterranean-arid climatic transect

Environmental (geomorphological, hydrological and ecological) processes are controlled by rainfall, particularly in the Mediterranean, semi-arid and arid regions. Rainfall was analyzed using the concept of rain-spells, i.e., a period of successive rain days preceded and followed by at least one day without rainfall. Daily data from 13 stations along a climatic transect extending from the Judean Mountains with a Mediterranean climate to the Dead Sea arid region in Israel were studied. Rain-spell characteristics (number, yield and duration), based on these data, are presented for different rainfall thresholds, which might be used for different environmental processes such as rock weathering, soil organic matter dynamics, landslides, overland flow and floods and soil erosion. Three estimation models have been developed in order to predict the mean annual Number of Rain-Spells (NRS), mean Rain-Spell Yield (RSY), and mean Rain-Spell Duration (RSD) for the mean annual rainfall and for any given rainfall threshold. These models can be used for current climatic conditions and for scenarios in which the rainfall total changes.     

A rain on snow climatology and temporal analysis for the eastern United States

ABSTRACT

Rain-on-snow (ROS) has the potential to produce devastating floods by enhancing runoff from snowmelt. Although a common phenomenon across the eastern United States, little research has focused on ROS in this region. This study used a gridded observational snow dataset from 1960–2009 to establish a comprehensive seasonal climatology of ROS for this region. Additionally, different rain and snow thresholds were compared while considering temporal trends in ROS occurrence at four grid cells representing individual locations. Results show most ROS events occur in MAM (March-April-May). ROS events identified with rainfall >1 cm are more frequent near the east coast and events identified with >1 cm snow loss are more common in higher latitudes and/or elevations. Decreasing trends in DJF (December-January-February) ROS events were identified near the coastal areas, with increasing trends in the northern portion of the domain. Significant decreasing trends in MAM ROS are likewise present on a regional scale. Factors playing a role in snowpack depth and rainfall, such as movement of storm tracks in this region, should be considered with future work to discern mechanisms causing the changes in ROS frequency.     

Reconstructing high-magnitude/low-frequency landslide events based on soil redistribution modelling and a Late-Holocene sediment record from New Zealand

A sediment record is used, in combination with shallow landslide soil redistribution and sediment-yield modelling, to reconstruct the incidence of high-magnitude/low-frequency landslide events in the upper part of a catchment and the history of a wetland in the lower part. Eleven sediment cores were obtained from a dune-impounded wetland at Te Henga, west Auckland, northern New Zealand. Sediment stratigraphy and chronology were interpreted by radiocarbon dating, foraminiferal analysis, and provisional tephrochronology. Gradual impoundment of the wetland began c. 6000 cal yr BP, coinciding with the start of a gentle sea-level fall, but complete damming and initial sedimentation did not begin until c. 1000 cal yr BP. After damming, four well-defined sediment pulses occurred and these are preserved in the form of distinct clay layers in most of the sediment cores. For interpreting the sediment pulses, a physically based landslide model was used to determine spatially distributed relative landslide hazard, applicable at the catchment scale. An empirical landslide-soil redistribution component was added and proved able to determine the volumes and spatial pattern of eroded and deposited soil material, sediment delivery ratio and the impact on total catchment sediment yield. Sediment volumes were calculated from the wetland cores and corresponding landslide scenarios are defined through back-analysis of modelled sediment yield output. In general, at least four major high-magnitude landslide events, both natural and intensified by forest clearance activities, occurred in the catchment upstream of Te Henga Wetland during the last c. 1000 years. The spatial distribution of modelled critical rainfall values for the catchment can be interpreted as an expression of shallow landslide hazard. The magnitude of the sediment pulses represented in the wetland can be back-calculated to critical rainfall thresholds representing a shallow landslide model scenario.     

Landslides in blanket peat on Cuilcagh Mountain, northwest Ireland

The northern and eastern sides of the Cuilcagh Mountain upland, in northwest Ireland, are mantled with over 50 km² of blanket bog that has experienced an unusually high spatial and temporal frequency of peat mass movements. In all, 29 peaty-debris slides, nine bog slides, two peat slides and five more peat landslides of uncertain type have been recorded within this study area. More than 27 km² of this peatland has been afforded several levels of statutory protection as well as international recognition of its geo-environmental importance. Field and laboratory investigations of the peat at several of the more recent failure sites showed it to be typical of Irish and Pennine (northern England) blanket bogs in most physical and hydrological respects. Field geomorphological evidence and modelling of stability thresholds indicate that the particular susceptibility of the Cuilcagh Mountain blanket bog to failure arises from two local factors: (i) the attainment of threshold maximum peat depths on the East Cuilcagh plateau, and (ii) the unconformable deposition of thin layers of glacial till (in places) and blanket peat over the pre-existing topographic surface formed from the major shale formations that underlie the northern slopes. With two exceptions, there is no conclusive evidence that human activities and management strategies for the area have had any significant influence on the occurrence of the peat landslides. The high frequency of large rainfall events since 1961 that did not trigger landslides suggests that failures are unlikely to become more frequent in response to climate change effects because they are controlled by slowly changing internal thresholds.     

Establishing an early warning system for flash floods in Hoang Su Phi District,Ha Giang Province,Vietnam

Hoang Su Phi is a mountainous district in Ha Giang province, Vietnam. When the rainy season arrives in these parts, flash floods (besides landslides), frequently occur in many areas, seriously affecting the socio‐economic condition of the district. Therefore, in this paper, we have developed an early warning system for flash floods, established based on a geomorphological and hydrological approach. The basic principle underlying this system is the fact that flash floods will often occur where there is high potential risk with sufficient rainfall. In the model, eight parameters of the basin were used to build a potential flash flood map. Using the spatial processing module in an open source software, early predictions from automatic weather stations were interpolated and processed online to produce a potential risk map. Depending on the threshold of precipitation values, the results determined locations where flash flood may occur at various flash flood risk indices (FFRI). The system may be applied to support provision of early flash flood warning up to 1?6 days in advance in the district, allowing the local government ample time to make appropriate decisions on the prevention and/or mitigation of damages caused by flash flood hazards.