基于DEA模型的中国资源型城市效率及其变化

利用DEA模型和Malmquist生产率指数,对2000年和2008年我国24个典型资源型城市效率及其变化进行了深入研究。研究发现,资源型城市综合效率水平一般,只有少数城市达到了综合效率最优;规模效率是决定综合效率最优的主要因素,但作用有所下降。从城市效率的分类特征看,东北地区的资源型城市效率始终排在前列;人口规模与城市效率呈一定的正相关关系。资源型城市的综合效率变化呈弱改善趋势;技术变化指数和生产率变化指数均呈下降趋势。从城市效率变化的分类特征看,西部地区的城市综合效率提高最明显;除钢铁型城市外,不同资源类型的城市综合效率都有提高;中小城市的综合效率提高幅度大于大城市。     

基于DEA模型和Malmquist生产率指数的上海市开发区用地效率及其变化

选取21个市级以上开发区为研究样本,基于单位土地面积上投入和产出指标,利用DEA模型和Malmquist生产率指数,探究2006-2011年上海市开发区整体和不同类型用地效率及其变化。研究发现：开发区用地综合效率处在一般水平,大多数开发区仍处在规模收益递增阶段,规模效率是影响开发区用地综合效率提高的主要因素;从分类特征看,国家级开发区用地效率明显高于市级开发区,市级开发区用地效率偏低是导致整体开发区用地效率不高的主要原因;从时间序列看,近郊区开发区用地效率要略高于远郊区并仍处于一般水平;“独立园区”模式的综合效率和纯技术效率均高于“一区多园”模式。用地效率变化趋势分析发现整体及不同类型生产率指数平均值均大于1,生产率呈增长趋势,市级高于国家级、近郊区高于远郊区、“独立园区”模式高于“一区多园”模式,技术变化对Malmquist生产率指数提升贡献较大,除国家级技术效率变化受规模效率下降影响外,其他类型更多的是受纯技术效率下降的影响。     

基于DEA和Malmquist的中国城市代谢效率研究

运用物质流、数据包络分析(DEA)及Malmquist指数对中国31个案例城市进行了城市代谢效率的研究。通过将城市代谢系统社会经济产出、环境非期望产出及水、电、化石能源、金属矿物、建筑材料、食物等投入部分纳入进DEA和Malmquist指数中,测得了案例城市的2000年、2010年代谢效率及变化趋势。研究结果发现,中国城市代谢系统效率总体相对较高,尤其是东中部地区城市的综合效率、纯技术效率和规模效率要高于西部地区城市,大城市的代谢综合效率高于巨型、超大和特大城市。2000~2010年,城市代谢综合效率、纯技术效率等所有效率指标的均值均呈现出下降趋势,但是中、西部地区城市的综合效率和纯技术效率却呈改善趋势,并且特大和超大城市的综合效率高于巨型城市。     

建设国际大都市目标下的中国特大城市资源效率、变化趋势及其成因(英文)

The metropolitan resources comprehensive efficiencies (also called comprehensive technical efficiency, short for CTE, thereafter), change trends and causes are investigated using DEA and Malmquist index models, respectively, in China during the period 1990–2006. Firstly, the DEA model results show that the metropolitan CTE was just fair to middling with the characteristics of almost declining from the Eastern Coastal to Western China, and only few metropolises were DEA efficient. Secondly, the results also show that the PTE was correlated with the urban population sizes of metropolises negatively, and the SE correlated positively with the urban population sizes of metropolises in 1990, 2000 and 2006, that is, with urban population sizes getting larger the corresponding PTE was decreasing accordingly, and the SE was increasing consequently and the increasing rate was smaller with the scale increase. Thirdly, the influencing factors of metropolitan efficiency were SE and PTE in 1990 and 2000, respectively. But the PTE became the predominant influencing factor with the rapid expansions of built-up areas and population scales of metropolises in 2006. Fourthly, the Malmquist index results show that the CTE change trends were increasing weakly, the technological change trends were declining, and the TFP change trends were declining obviously during 1990–2006, in which they were all increasing during the sub-period 1990–2000, and all decreasing during the sub-period 2000–2006. Fifthly, the Malmquist index results also demonstrate that the CTE change trend was increasing weakly in the Eastern Coastal China, declining in Central China, and declining evidently in Western China. And with the urban population size increasing the increasing trends of SE became weaker and weaker. And the main causes for the CTE being not too high and its change trends and TFP change trends being increasing weakly lie mainly in the technological degeneracy and PTE change trends declining significantly during 2000–2006. Finally, the analyses show that the China’s metropolitan population boom and the rapid spread of built-up area had really caused their resources efficiency losses.     

基于DEA的中国特大城市资源效率及其变化

利用DEA、Malmquist指数模型方法,对1990-2006年中国特大城市要素资源效率及其变化进行了深入的研究.城市效率研究显示,特大城市平均效率一般,只有少数城市达到了效率最优.进一步的分类研究发现:①东、中部地区特大城市综合效率一般要高于西部地区,呈现出与我国区域经济格局相似的特征;②纯技术效率与城市规模成弱负相关关系,即城市规模越大,城市纯技术效率越低;③城市规模与规模效率成一定的正相关关系,即城市规模越大,规模效率越高.城市效率变化研究显示,1990-2006年特大城市效率呈现弱改善趋势,但技术退步和生产率下降明显.其中1990-2000年全都呈上升趋势,而2000-2006年全都呈下降趋势.进一步的分类研究显示:①城市综合效率和生产率变化趋势是,东部沿海地区有一定提高,中西部地区下降,其中,西部地区下降最明显.②不同规模城市的综合效率变化表现为,特大城市提高,超大城市和巨型城市下降;③不同规模城市的生产率都呈现下降趋势;④不同规模城市的规模效率都呈上升趋势,存在随特大城市规模的增大,城市规模效率提高的趋势呈现递减的现象.     

基于DEA模型的中国城市资源环境效率评价(英文)

本研究以全国地级以上城市为实证数据,试图刻画我国城市资源-环境效率的空间差异并分析影响这一空间格局的主要因素。研究中采用数据包络分析法(DEA),对全国285个城市的资源-环境效率进行了评价。结果表明,城市平均资源-环境效率指数为0.6381,该指数的分解结果表明城市的纯技术效率指数为0.6964,低于规模效率指数0.9225。对城市资源-环境效率影响因素的回归分析结果表明,城市资源-环境效率与城市收入水平呈U形关系。经济增长可以通过三个渠道影响城市的资源-环境效率:规模效应(包括人口规模和城市化水平)、经济结构效应以及空间效应。城市资源-环境效率的提高并不是自然发生的,而需依赖于技术创新和有效管治等手段。因此各级政府、企业和组织必须实施一系列应对措施才能确保城市的高效发展。     

中国科技资源配置效率测度及其时空格局演变特征(英文)

According to the connotation and structure of science and technology resources and some relevant data of more than 286 cities at prefecture level and above during 2001–2010, using modified method—Data Envelopment Analysis(DEA), science and technology(ST) resource allocation efficiency of different cities in different periods has been figured out, which, uncovers the distributional difference and change law of ST resource allocation efficiency from the time-space dimension. Based on that, this paper has analyzed and discussed the spatial distribution pattern and evolution trend of ST resource allocation efficiency in different cities by virtue of the Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis(ESDA). It turned out that:(1) the average of ST resource allocation efficiency in cities at prefecture level and above has always stayed at low levels, moreover, with repeated fluctuations between high and low, which shows a decreasing trend year by year. Besides, the gap between the East and the West is widening.(2) The asymmetrical distribution of ST resource allocation efficiency presents a spatial pattern of successively decreasing from Eastern China, Central China to Western China. The cities whose ST resource allocation efficiency are at higher level and high level take on a cluster distribution, which fits well with the 23 forming urban agglomerations in China.(3) The coupling degree between ST resource allocation efficiency and economic environment assumes a certain positive correlation, but not completely the same. The differentiation of ST resource allocation efficiency is common in regional development, whose existence and evolution are directly or indirectly influenced by and regarded as the reflection of many elements, such as geographical location, the natural endowment and environment of ST resources and so on.(4) In the perspective of the evolution of spatial structure, ST resource allocation efficiency of the cities at prefecture level and above shows a notable spatial autocorrelation, which in every period presents a positive correlation. The spatial distribution of ST resource allocation efficiency in neighboring cities seems to be similar in group, which tends to escalate stepwise. Meanwhile, the whole differentiation of geographical space has a diminishing tendency.(5) Viewed from LISA agglomeration map ofST resource allocation efficiency in different periods, four agglomeration types have changed differently in spatial location and the range of spatial agglomeration. And the continuity of ST resource allocation efficiency in geographical space is gradually increasing.     

基于三阶段DEA模型中国区域能源效率研究(英文)

能源短缺、利用率低、环境恶化已经成为制约我国经济发展的重要环节。本文运用三阶段DEA模型对中国29个省市2009年的能源效率进行了分析。文章将技术效率分为纯技术效率和规模效率,并利用其数值来分析能源效率,同时,加入环境变量来分析完善上述计算结果。结果表明,在剔除外部因素和环境变量以前规模效率被高估,纯技术效率被低估。大部分省在第三阶段计算出的规模收益是递增的,这说明很多企业规模较小不能体现出规模经济性。从区域上来看则是东部地区的能源效率最高,中部次之,西部最低。针对这一结果,本文给出几点建议:中西部地区应加强合作,发挥各自优势,开发新技术新能源,提高能源利用率,促进经济健康发展。     

东北黑土区容许土壤流失量研究(英文)

Soil loss tolerance(T) is the maximum rate of annual soil erosion that is tolerated and still allows a high level of crop productivity to be sustained economically and indefinitely.In the black soil region of Northeast China,an empirically determined,default T value of 200(t/km2?a) is used for designing land restoration strategies for different types of soils.The ob-jective of this study was to provide a methodology to calculate a quantitative T for different black soil species.A field investigation was conducted to determine the typical soil profiles of 21 black soil species in the study area and a quantitative methodology based on a modified soil productivity index model was established to calculate the T values.These values,which varied from 68 t/km2?a to 358 t/km2?a,yielded an average T value of 141 t/km2?a for the 21 soil species.This is 29.5% lower than the current national standard T value.Two significant factors that influenced the T value were soil thickness and vulnerability to erosion.An ac-ceptable reduction rate of soil productivity over a planned time period of 1% is recommended as necessary for maintaining long-term sustainable soil productivity.Compared with the cur-rently used of regional unified standard T value,the proposed method,which determines T using specific soil profile indices,has more practical implications for effective,sustainable management of soil and water conservation.     

基于数据包络分析的长三角城市群土地利用效率及其变化研究

先利用数据包络分析对长三角城市群16个城市2009年和2010年土地利用效率及其分类进行分析,再利用Malmquist指数对16个城市2000年至2010年土地利用效率的变化及其分类情况进行考察。研究发现,长三角城市群土地利用技术效率一般,仅有少数城市达到DEA有效,规模效率是影响土地利用水平的主要因素。浙江土地利用技术效率要低于上海和江苏,技术效率与城市规模和城市行政级别的相关性均不明显。长三角城市群土地利用效率呈现出弱衰退的趋势,技术有所进步,但技术效率有所下降。除上海外,江苏、浙江的土地利用效率均有所下降;除直辖市外,副省级和地级城市的土地利用效率均有所下降;超大城市和特大城市土地利用效率均有所上升,而大城市和中等城市有所下降。     

2000-2013年中国城市群经济绩效动态实证分析——基于DEA和Malmquist生产率指数法

在全球化和新型城镇化大背景下,城市群是辐射面最广、潜力最大、活力最强的核心增长极,但其高速成长背后是各类要素的大量投入,客观评估城市群经济绩效对于推动中国城镇化持续健康发展意义深远。在总结既有研究的基础上,选取中国13个典型城市群为样本,以2000-2013年为研究时段,采用资本、土地、劳动、科技和经济五大要素长时间序列数据,在全要素生产率(TFP)分析框架下,通过数据包络分析方法(DEA)静态评价时间截面的城市群投入产出效率,进而运用Malmquist生产率指数法动态分析城市群TFP年际变化,探讨其时空格局和内在演化机制。研究发现：城市群经济绩效进步明显,但空间分布仍不均衡;科技进步贡献的滞后在一定程度上抵消了通过规模扩张和资源配置优化带来的正效应,只有长三角、珠三角和京津冀三大城市群初步实现依靠科技进步促进发展,表明各城市群所处发展阶段和动力机制差异显著。据此,提出针对不同地区、不同发展阶段城市群的发展策略。     

中国资源型城市经济发展效率评析

从城市经济运行的角度,运用数据包络分析方法(DEA模型),对2007年我国75个地级资源型城市的经济发展规模效益进行了定量评价,揭示出我国资源型城市经济发展效率在空间分布、资源类别上的差异,分析了影响资源型城市经济发展效率的原因,并就如何提高资源型城市经济发展效益,促进其持续发展提出了相应建议.     

基于DEA和主成分分析的中国城市代谢效率研究

城市代谢效率测度是城市可持续发展研究的重要方向。该文运用数据包络分析(DEA)和主成分分析法考察了2010年中国31个案例城市的代谢效率特征。研究结果显示,中国城市代谢系统效率的地域分异性显著,尤其是西部城市代谢系统的非DEA有效比例较高。这些非DEA有效城市在非可再生资源要素(钢材、原煤、焦炭等)投入、社会经济产出(人均GDP、城市化率等)、非期望产出(固体废弃物、废水和废气)方面有较大改善空间。     

中国旅游业技术效率及其分解的时空格局——基于DEA模型的研究

以省(市)为核算单位,利用数据包络分析模型(DEA),评价1999～2008年间中国旅游产业技术效率,并将之分解为纯技术效率与规模效率,探寻旅游效率的时空特征及其演变的源泉。结论如下:(1)中国旅游业的综合技术效率平均值仅为0.330,1999～2008年间旅游效率呈现先下降后增加的趋势,由于受"非典"大爆发的影响,2003年旅游效率明显下降;(2)各省(市)旅游技术效率存在着明显的区域的差异,经济发展水平较高的东部地区,旅游效率较高。经济发展水平较低的中部和西部地区的旅游效率较低,二者均在全国平均效率水平以下;(3)纯技术效率和规模效率整体都不高,提升空间很大。从分解效率对总效率的贡献来看,纯技术效率对总效率的影响及制约能力略强于规模效率;(4)大部分省(市)旅游产业都处于规模报酬递增阶段,通过扩大规模可以获得更高的收益。     

长江三角洲地区生态足迹的时空动态及其可持续发展分析(英文)

In the urbanizing world,the Yangtze Delta Region (YDR) as one of the most developed regions in China,has drawn a lot of the world’s attention for the remarkable economic development achieved in the past decades.Nevertheless,the rapid economic development was certain to be accompanied by unprecedented consumption and loss of natural resources.Therefore,the analysis of the ecological situation and driving factors of environmental impact was of great significance to serve the local sustainable development decision-making and build a harmonious society.In this paper,the ecological footprint (EF) was taken as the index of the ecological environmental impact.With the help of Geographic Information System (GIS),we studied the spatiotemporal change of ecological footprint at two scales (region and city) and assessed urban sustainable development ability in YDR.Then we discussed the driving factors that affected the change of ecological footprint by the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population,Affluence,and Technology (STIRPAT) model.The results showed that increasing trends of regional ecological footprint during 1998-2008 (1.70-2.53 ha/cap) were accompanied by decreasing ecological capacity (0.31-0.25 ha/cap) but expanding ecological deficit (1.39-2.28 ha/cap).The distribution pattern of ecological footprint and the degree of sustainable development varied distinctly from city to city in YDR.In 2008,the highest values of ecological footprint (3.85 ha/cap) and the lowest one of sustainable development index (SDI=1) in YDR were both presented in Shanghai.GDP per capita (A) was the most dominant driving force of EF and the classical EKC hypothesis did not exist between A and EF in 1998-2008.Consequently,increasing in ecological supply and reducing in human demand due to technological advances or other factors were one of the most effective ways to promote sustainable development in YDR.Moreover,importance should be attached to change our definition and measurement of prosperity and success.     

基于Malmquist指数的上海市星级饭店效率变化分析

利用DEA(数据包络分析)的Malmquist(曼奎斯特)指数对上海市星级饭店的全要素生产率进行研究,分析2000～2009年上海市星级饭店的效率演化过程,得到以下结论:(1)总体上,上海市星级饭店的全要素生产率进步快,技术进步对其贡献大,但呈现波动性,先进的技术有待充分发挥;(2)高星级饭店技术进步和管理效率方面都有一定程度的提高,原因是得到先进跨国饭店集团的支持,但易受突发事件影响;(3)中低星级饭店与高星级饭店存在较大距离,全要素生产率整体上处于下降趋势,技术应用不足,管理水平有待提高.     

黄河流域资源型城市转型效率及其影响因素

资源型城市是黄河流域分布较广和问题较突出的一类城市,提高城市效率、促进资源型城市转型是实现黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展的重要途径。论文利用DEA模型评价了2007—2017年黄河流域41个资源型城市的转型效率,通过固定效应模型对资源型城市转型效率的影响因素及其差异性进行了面板回归分析。结果表明：① 黄河流域资源型城市转型效率并不理想,2017年综合效率最优的城市只有39.02%,2015年以来城市间转型效率的差距有所扩大;② 规模效率是决定综合效率的主要因素,但规模效率最优的城市数量先增后减,规模报酬递减趋势愈发明显,说明部分城市的转型效率存在投入冗余现象;③ 总体看,人均GDP、政府财政收入占GDP的比重、普通高等学校在校学生数对资源型城市转型效率的影响显著为正,第三产业比重的影响显著为负;分类型看,外商投资工业企业占比对煤炭型城市转型效率的影响显著为正,采矿业从业人员占比对成熟型资源型城市转型效率的影响显著为正,不同城市间转型效率的影响因素存在差异性。     

中国热带气旋潜在影响力指数分析(英文)

Tropical cyclone,a high energy destructive meteorological system with heavy rainfall and gale triggered massive landslides and windstorms,poses a significant threat to coastal areas.In this paper we have developed a Tropical Cyclone Potential Impact Index (TCPI) based on the air mass trajectories,disaster information,intensity,duration,and frequency of tropical cyclones.We analyzed the spatial pattern and interannual variation of the TCPI over the period 1949-2009,and taking the Super Typhoon Saomai as an example have examined the relationship between the TCPI and direct economic losses,total rainfall,and maximum wind speed.The results reveal that China’s TCPI appears to be a weak decreasing trend over the period,which is not significant overall,but significant in some periods.Over the past 20 years,the TCPI decreased in the southern China coastal provinces of Hainan,Guangdong and Guangxi,while it increased in the southeastern coastal provinces of Zhejiang,Fujian and Taiwan.The highest values of TCPI are mainly observed in Taiwan,Hainan,the coastal areas of Guangdong and Fujian and Zhejiang’s southern coast.The TCPI has a good correlation (P=0.01) with direct economic loss,rainfall,and maximum wind speed.     

基于三阶段DEA模型的新疆工业创新效率及其区域差异

技术创新效率提升对促进新疆工业经济转型升级具有重要意义。为了明确新疆工业技术创新活动的绩效特点,采用三阶段DEA模型以及地级行政区的大中型工业企业数据,测度并分析了新疆工业创新效率及其影响因素、区际差异。2008年以来,各区域工业创新活动普遍缺乏DEA有效性,规模效率低下是主要原因;经济市场化、产业集聚都有利于区域工业创新效率提升,但人力资本积累表现为反向作用,FDI和出口的影响不显著;剔除环境效应和统计噪音后,工业创新效率分布呈现"北疆高于南疆、核心区高于外围区"的空间极化格局。     

基于DEA的中国国家级风景名胜区 使用效率评价

风景名胜区是重要的旅游资源和产品形态,对其绩效进行评价有利于区域旅游发展制定更合理的资源利用政策。采用数据包络分析(DEA)和空间对比分析方法,对136个中国国家级风景名胜区的使用效率进行了计算和空间特征刻画。结果表明:国家级风景名胜区的使用效率普遍偏低,且多数处于规模收益递增阶段;在总效率的分解效率中,利用效率较高,而规模效率和技术效率则较低;规模效率是影响总效率、并导致总效率普遍偏低的最重要因素;国家级风景名胜区沿云南-贵州-湖南-安徽-浙江(江苏)等省份形成了一条东西向的高效率分布带,该分布带的形成与这些省份旅游资源丰度较大、风景名胜区与各类型旅游资源之间不断产生互补和替代作用密切相关。文章最后探讨了区域旅游发展过程中旅游资源使用效率提高的实际应用途径。