北京城市湿地时空演变及驱动力定量分析(英文)

The decision tree and the threshold methods have been adopted to delineate boundaries and features of water bodies from LANDSAT images. After a spatial overlay analysis and using a remote sensing technique and the wetland inventory data in Beijing, the water bodies were visually classified into different types of urban wetlands, and data on the urban wetlands of Beijing in 1986, 1991, 1996, 2000, 2002, 2004 and 2007 were obtained. Thirteen driving factors that affect wetland change were selected, and gray correlation analysis was employed to calculate the correlation between each driving factor and the total area of urban wetlands. Then, six major driving factors were selected based on the correlation coefficient, and the contribution rates of these six driving factors to the area change of various urban wetlands were calculated based on canonical correlation analysis. After that, this research analyzed the relationship and mechanism between the main driving factors and various types of wetlands. Five conclusions can be drawn. (1) The total area of surface water bodies in Beijing increased from 1986 to 1996, and gradually decreased from 1996 to 2007. (2) The areas of the river wetlands, water storage areas and pool and culture areas gradually decreased, and its variation tendency is consistent with that of the total area of wetlands. The area of the mining water areas and wastewater treatment plants slightly increased. (3) The six factors of driving forces are the annual rainfall, the evaporation, the quantity of inflow water, the volume of groundwater available, the urbanization rate and the daily average discharge of wastewater are the main factors affecting changes in the wetland areas, and they correlate well with the total area of wetlands. (4) The hydrologic indicators of water resources such as the quantity of inflow water and the volume of groundwater are the most important and direct driving forces that affect the change of the wetland area. These factors have a combined contribution rate of 43.94%. (5) Climate factors such as rainfall and evaporation are external factors that affect the changes in wetland area, and they have a contribution rate of 36.54%. (6) Human activities such as the urbanization rate and the daily average quantity of waste-water are major artificial driving factors. They have an influence rate of 19.52%.     

长江三角洲地区生态足迹的时空动态及其可持续发展分析(英文)

In the urbanizing world,the Yangtze Delta Region (YDR) as one of the most developed regions in China,has drawn a lot of the world’s attention for the remarkable economic development achieved in the past decades.Nevertheless,the rapid economic development was certain to be accompanied by unprecedented consumption and loss of natural resources.Therefore,the analysis of the ecological situation and driving factors of environmental impact was of great significance to serve the local sustainable development decision-making and build a harmonious society.In this paper,the ecological footprint (EF) was taken as the index of the ecological environmental impact.With the help of Geographic Information System (GIS),we studied the spatiotemporal change of ecological footprint at two scales (region and city) and assessed urban sustainable development ability in YDR.Then we discussed the driving factors that affected the change of ecological footprint by the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population,Affluence,and Technology (STIRPAT) model.The results showed that increasing trends of regional ecological footprint during 1998-2008 (1.70-2.53 ha/cap) were accompanied by decreasing ecological capacity (0.31-0.25 ha/cap) but expanding ecological deficit (1.39-2.28 ha/cap).The distribution pattern of ecological footprint and the degree of sustainable development varied distinctly from city to city in YDR.In 2008,the highest values of ecological footprint (3.85 ha/cap) and the lowest one of sustainable development index (SDI=1) in YDR were both presented in Shanghai.GDP per capita (A) was the most dominant driving force of EF and the classical EKC hypothesis did not exist between A and EF in 1998-2008.Consequently,increasing in ecological supply and reducing in human demand due to technological advances or other factors were one of the most effective ways to promote sustainable development in YDR.Moreover,importance should be attached to change our definition and measurement of prosperity and success.     

基于方志资料重建1644-1949年长江三角洲地区台风频次序列(英文)

The proxy records on typhoons in the Yangtze River Delta from 1644 to 1949AD were extracted from historical chorographies in the Qing Dynasty and the Republic of China Period.In reference to the basic principles for identifying historical typhoons,time series on the Yangtze River Delta over a period of 306 years were developed.The conclusions are as follows.(1) There were a total of 241 typhoons from 1644 to 1949AD.Using the historical chorographies from 1884 to 1949AD,the number of typhoons was 65,equal to 87.8% recorded by meteorological observation.The number of years with differences in typhoon activities reconstructed using two ways no more than once is 55,reaching 83.3% in the period from 1884 to 1949AD.This result means the series of historical typhoons reconstructed using historical chorographies can represent the change of typhoon activities over years.(2) The average number of typhoon activities is 0.79 times per year from 1644 to 1949AD,and they show an increasing trend.These 306 years can be divided into three periods by the average number of typhoon activities:it is low from 1644 to 1784AD,and more typhoon activities are found from 1785 to 1904AD.It is worth noting that the number of typhoon activities reaches the summit in the last period,which is 1.2 times per year from 1905 to 1949AD.(3) Before the 20th century,the number of typhoon activities in warm periods is less than the number of cold periods.However,the number of typhoon activities increased dramatically in the early 20th century.Comparing the typhoon activities with El Ni o events,the data show that the number of typhoon activities did not increase when El Ni o occurred.     

环渤海地区城乡发展转型的过程及成因研究(英文)

China's reform and opening-up policy has brought the country a great development opportunity. The high-speed growth of the economy not only led China to a period of industrialization, urbanization, informatization and agricultural modernization, but also exacerbated the situation of the urban–rural dual structure. Based on the review of current studies, we first used the analytic hierarchy process(AHP) method to evaluate the urban–rural development and transformation level by population transformation index, land transformation index, industrial transformation index and social transformation index between 1996 and 2012 around the Bohai Rim Region. Then, based on the results of each index, we used the exploratory spatial data analysis(ESDA) method to investigate the spatial autocorrelation of the change in the urban–rural development transformation index during the 16-year period using Global Moran's I index and Local Moran's I index. Finally, we investigated the mechanism of change of the urban–rural development transformation index at county level, summarizing five main factors:(1) the radiation from the surrounding big cities,(2) the acceleration of the urbanization process,(3) the upgrading of the industrial structure,(4) the publishing and implementation of a macro development strategy and regional policy, and(5) natural factors such as topology.     

1984-2008年北京湿地景观格局驱动机制(英文)

The landscape pattern of Beijing wetlands has undergone a significant change as a result of natural and artificial elements.Supported by remote sensing and GIS technology,using multi-temporal TM images from 1984 to 2008 in Beijing,this paper analyzed the dynamic characteristics of wetlands landscape pattern through selected typical indices including patch area,patch average area,fractal dimension index,diversity,dominance,contagion indices and the spatial centroids of each wetlands type were calculated.Finally,the paper explored the evolution mode and driving factors of wetland landscape pattern.The results were obtained as follows:the total wetland area increased during the period 1984-1996,then decline from 1996 to 2004.The wetland area in 1994 accounted for only 47.37% of that in 2004.The proportion of artificial wetland area was larger than that of natural wetland.The proportion of reservoir wetland was 33.50% to 53.73% and had the maximum average area.pond and paddy field wetland type with the least average area accounted for 16.46% to 45.09% of the total wetland area.The driving forces of the natural river wetland were mainly natural elements;its fractal dimension index was greater than the others.The Shannon diversity index of wetland landscape increased from 1.11 in 1992 to 1.34 in 2004,indicating that the difference between proportions of each wetland type decreased and areas of each wetland type were evenly distributed.The contagion index went down from 65.59 to 58.41,indicating that the connectivity degraded.Miyun Reservoir had the largest area and its area change had a great impact on the location of the centroid.Wetland resources degenerated gradually from the joint effects of natural and artificial factors.During the period 2006-2008,the precipitation increased and the drought condition was relieved.The government implemented series of positive policies to save water resources,and the wetland area increased.     

中国城市群分布及范围的定量评价(英文)

Urban clusters are the expected products of high levels of industry and urbanization in a country, as well as being the basic units of participation in global competition. With respect to China, urban clusters are regarded as the dominant formation for boosting the Chinese urbanization process. However, to date, there is no coincident, efficient, and credible methodological system and set of techniques to identify Chinese urban clusters. This research investigates the potential of a computerized identification method supported by geographic information techniques to provide a better understanding of the distribution of Chinese urban clusters. The identification method is executed based on a geographic information database, a digital elevation model, and socio-economic data with the aid of ArcInfo Macro Language programming. In the method, preliminary boundaries are identified accord-ing to transportation accessibility, and final identifications are achieved from limiting city numbers, population, and GDP in a region with the aid of the rasterized socio-economic dataset. The results show that the method identifies nine Chinese urban clusters, i.e., Pearl River Delta, Lower Yangtze River Valley, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, Northeast China Plain, Middle Yangtze River Valley, Central China Plains, Western Taiwan Strait, Guanzhong and Chengdu-Chongqing urban clusters. This research represents the first study involving the computerized identification of Chinese urban clusters. Moreover, compared to other related studies, the study’s approach, which combines transportation accessibility and socio-economic characteristics, is shown to be a distinct, effective and reliable way of identifying urban clusters.     

长江口悬沙浓度变化的同步性和差异性(英文)

The sediment discharge from the Yangtze River Basin has a stepwise decreasing trend in recent years. The impounding of the Three Gorges Reservoir exacerbated this decreasing trend and affected the change of the suspended sediment concentration(SSC) in the Yangtze River Estuary through the transmission effect. The SSC data of the Yangtze River Estuary during 1959–2012 showed that:(1) The SSC in the South Branch of the Yangtze River in the estuary and in the off-shore sea area displayed decreasing trends and decreased less towards the sea. At the same time, the difference in decreasing magnitude between SSC and sediment discharge became bigger towards the sea.(2) For the North Branch the preferential flow did not change much but the SSC tended to decrease, which was mainly caused by the decrease of SSC in the South Branch and China East Sea.(3) Due to the decreased runoff and the relatively strengthened tide, the peak area of the SSC in the bar shoal section in 2003–2012 moved inward for about 1/6 longitude unit compared with that in 1984–2002, and the inward-moving distance was in the order of flood season > annual average > dry season.(4) In the inlet of the South Passage, the SSC decreased mainly because the increase caused by resuspension and shore-groove exchange was less than the decrease caused by the sharp SSC decrease in the basin and the sea areas. The reverse was true in the middle section, where the SSC showed an increasing trend.(5) In the inlet of the North Passage, under the combined influence of decreased flow split and sediment split ratios, the decreased SSC in the basin and the sea area and decreased amount of resuspension, the SSC displayed a decreasing trend. In the middle section, because the increased amount caused by sediment going over the dyke was markedly more than the decreased amount caused by external environments, the SSC tended to increase. Holistically, the sharp decrease in sediment discharge caused synchronized SSC decreases in the Yangtze River Estuary. But there were still areas, where the SSC displayed increasing trends, indicating synchronicity and difference in the response of SSC to the sharp decrease in sediment discharge from the basin.     

基于重心-GTWR模型的京津冀城市群研究

Research into urban expansion patterns and their driving forces is of great significance for urban agglomeration development planning and decision-making.In this paper,we reveal the multi-dimensional characteristics of urban expansion patterns,based on the intensity index of the urban expansion,the differentiation index of the urban expansion,the fractal dimension index,the land urbanization rate,and the center of gravity model,by taking the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(Jing-Jin-Ji)urban agglomeration as an example.We then build the center of gravity-geographically and temporally weighted regression(GTWR)model by coupling the center of gravity model with the GTWR model.Through the analysis of the temporal and spatial patterns and by using the center of gravity-GTWR model,we analyze the driving forces of the urban land expansion and summarize the dominant development modes and core driving forces of the Jing-Jin-Ji urban agglomeration.The results show that:1)Between 1990 and 2015,the expansion intensity of the Jing-Jin-Ji urban agglomeration showed a down-up-down trend,and the peak period was in 2005-2010.Before 2005,high-speed development took place in Beijing,Tianjin,Baoding,and Langfang;after 2005,rapid development was seen in Xingtai and Handan.2)Although the barycenter of cities in the Jing-Jin-Ji urban agglomeration has shown a divergent trend,the local interaction between cities has been enhanced,and the driving forces of urban land expansion have shown a characteristic of spatial spillover.3)The spatial development mode of the Jing-Jin-Ji urban agglomeration has changed from a dual-core development mode to a multi-core development mode,which is made up of three functional cores:the transportation core in the northern part,the economic development core in the central part,and the investment core in the southern part.The synergistic development between each functional core has led to the multi-core development mode.4)The center of gravity-GTWR model combines the analysis of spatial and temporal nonstationarity with urban spatial interaction,and analyzes the urban land expansion as a space-time dynamic system.The results of this study show that the model is a feasible approach in the analysis of the driving forces of urban land expansion.     

长沙市人居环境与经济协调发展的不确定性评价(英文)

The coordinated development of human settlement environment and economy is of vital significance to urban sustainable development and urban ecosystem health. Urban human settlement and economic systems exist in urban ecosystems, which are a structural complexity. Therefore the research is being challenged by some uncertain factors between human settlements and economic systems. However most of the researches were focused on its determinate objective aspects and qualitative analyses while less concern on the quantitative evaluation of coordinated development of urban human settlement environment and economy, especially little on its uncertain aspect. At present, the urgent task is to study the coordinated development of urban settlement environment and economy in terms of the effect of uncertainty. This study analyzed the uncertain characteristics, which would be confronted at different stages, such as confirming the index categories, their bound values, and their construction rate, etc. According to the actual urban conditions, many construction principles based on uncertainties are put forward and an indicating system for human settlement and economic evaluation is established. Moreover, the application of fuzzy mathematics presents a new method and a calculation model for the comprehensive assessment of the coordinated development of urban human settlement environment and economy. The application of the method and model in Changsha city of China showed that the assessment results can reflect not only the overall coordination degree of the city, but also the mode of interactive mechanism between urban economic system and human settlement environment.     

熵视角下的广州城市生态系统可持续发展能力分析(英文)

The urban ecosystem possesses dissipating structures that can absorb substances and energy from the external environment and export products and wastes to maintain order within the system. Given these circumstances, this paper analyzed the ability of the urban ecosystem in Guangzhou City to sustain development from the perspective of entropy. The research was carried out in three steps. First, an evaluation index system that considers the ability of the urban ecosystem for sustainable development was formed based on the structures and functions of the urban ecosystem and the change in the entropy of the urban socioeconomic ecosystem. Second, the sustainable development ability assessment model for the urban ecosystem was built using information entropy. Last, by combining the time series variation of the evaluation indicators with the entropy weights, this paper analyzed the influence of the combined factors on the sustainable development ability of the urban ecosystem in Guangzhou and suggested some measures to promote the sustainable development of the urban ecosystem in Guangzhou. The conclusions of this study can be summarized as follows: (1) The urban ecosystem has developed in an orderly and healthy direction, with effective control over the urban environmental pollution problems in Guangzhou between 2004 and 2010. (2) The sustainable development ability of the urban ecosystem had been on an upward trend in Guangzhou during the study period. The ability of the natural urban ecosystem to support the urban socioeconomic ecosystem increased continuously, and the improved ecoenvironment enhanced the harmony and vitality of the urban ecosystem in Guangzhou.     

产业集聚与城镇空间格局的耦合关系及时空演化——以长三角区域为例

产业集聚与城镇空间格局的变动之间存在着密切的联系。针对两者之间的耦合关系及时空演化问题,构建区域产业集聚与城镇空间格局演化综合评价指标,并利用1990—2016年长三角区域16个城市的统计数据,基于面板回归模型和空间重心模型探究两系统之间演化的互动作用关系和时空演化。结果表明：长三角区域的产业集聚与城镇空间格局间存在较显著的耦合关系;长三角区域各市区的耦合协调度及空间匹配度均稳步提升,但长三角区域耦合协调发展程度不够均衡,长三角南部的耦合协调的发展程度稍弱于长三角区域北部的发展;在近几十年的发展中,长三角北部地区逐渐形成以上海-南京为轴线的耦合协调发展区域,整个长三角区域的耦合协调则呈现“Z”字形特征。     

高速铁路对生产性服务业空间集聚的影响——以长三角城市群为例

为深入探究高铁与生产性服务业空间集散间的关系,论文以长三角城市群为研究区域,基于2002—2017年26个地级及以上城市高铁运营数据和城市经济数据,通过多期双重差分模型的静态视角和动态双重差分模型的动态视角考察高速铁路对生产性服务业及其细分行业的空间集聚效应。结果表明：① 高铁效应与城市高铁发展水平密切相关,受时空压缩和客运组织的综合影响。对生产性服务业而言,静态层面上,高铁显著促进生产性服务业向沿线城市集聚;动态层面上,高速铁路对生产性服务业空间集聚效应具有显著的阶段性和滞后性,且作用强度随高铁网络化逐年增强。② 高铁影响下生产性服务业细分行业空间组织趋于差异化,其中研发设计业为“高显著促进型”产业,信息服务业和金融服务业为“中显著促进型”产业,运输服务业、节能与环保服务业、生产性租赁服务与商务服务业为“高显著抑制型”产业,高铁对批发与贸易经纪代理服务业影响不显著。③ 高铁对生产性服务业细分行业动态效应具有显著行业异质性和阶段性,这一阶段性特征与高铁对生产性服务业整体的动态效应保持相对一致;具有相同静态特征的产业在高铁影响下表现出相同的动态空间特征。     

快速城镇化背景下长三角城镇建设用地群态化特征及演变模式

城市群作为国家新型城镇化的主体形态,表征其空间结构和组织演变的城镇建设用地具有明显"群态化"特征.借鉴群落生态学理论,利用城镇用地开发速率指数、景观指数、核密度估计等方法 ,对长三角城市群1978-2017年城镇建设用地的规模分布、形态变化和集聚状态进行探讨,提炼出快速城镇化背景下城镇建设用地的群态化演变模式.研究结果...     

珠三角城市群工业生产空间的时空演化及驱动机制

基于多时相卫星遥感影像和GIS技术,对珠三角城市群不同时期的工业生产空间信息进行精准提取,利用多种模型定量分析了其空间扩展格局与特征,并进一步揭示了影响其时空演化的驱动机制。结果表明：① 1990年以来,珠三角城市群的工业生产空间总体上呈现由核心向边缘扩散的特征,且扩展热点格局不断变动,热点区的中心极化作用逐渐减弱;② 珠三角城市群工业生产空间的形态变化呈现明显的阶段性和异质性,2007年以前工业生产空间的破碎化程度增加而紧凑性降低,其面积的增加以外部扩展为主,而2007年以后的变化与此相反;③ 在工业生产空间扩展的不同阶段,驱动机制有所不同,政策因素、经济全球化、区域城镇化以及技术的进步与创新等,推动着珠三角城市群工业生产空间的演化与重构。     

城市韧性对旅游经济的空间溢出效应研究——以长三角城市群为例

城市为旅游发展提供支撑,其韧性水平对区域旅游发展具有重要的影响。论文利用长三角城市群各地区2004—2018年的面板数据,在定量测算城市韧性的基础上,借助空间面板杜宾模型揭示城市韧性对旅游经济的空间溢出效应。结果显示：长三角各地区城市韧性水平空间差异显著,但总体上韧性水平呈现上升趋势。城市韧性与旅游经济之间存在较强的空间相关性,城市韧性对旅游经济具有显著的空间溢出效应(ρ=0.444,P<0.01)。其中,城市经济韧性和城市生态韧性对旅游经济具有正向溢出效应,城市社会韧性和城市工程韧性对旅游经济具有负向溢出效应。未来城市旅游发展需要关注城市韧性水平,注重城市韧性的空间溢出效应,避免虹吸效应,同时还需要加强长三角城市群区域间交流合作,促进旅游经济高质量发展。     

城市群范围界定方法研究——以长江三角洲城市群为例

城市群是中国推进新型城镇化的主体形态,也是中国参与全球治理的基本单元,因而关于其范围界定研究一直是地理学关注的重要议题。突出地理学自然—人文要素融合研究优势,在改进传统万有引力模型、交通可达性、金融联系网络等定量分析方法基础上,结合主体功能区、语言—文化地理和国家战略等定性方法,集成构建城市群空间范围界定综合方法,据此在上海、江苏、浙江、安徽“一市三省”内遴选出26个城市,作为长江三角洲城市群的组成范围。尝试为城市群范围界定方法研究提供一种新思路,也希望能够为相关城市群规划编制工作提供依据和参考。     

基于新经济地理学的长三角城市群空间格局及发展因素

城市群空间格局发展并非均匀的发展,而是密度(Density)更为集中、距离(Distance)逐渐缩短、整合(Division)更为强烈的过程。基于2009年世界银行发展报告,在劳动生产率基础上分析了长三角城市群空间发展状态。结果表明:1城市化的推进取决于密度的增加,区域发展取决于距离约束的克服,而区域一体化则取决于减少分割并增强整合,因此3D对于认识城市群区域发展及其一体化进程是非常合适的框架。2上海、苏州和无锡表现为3D类型,常州和南京表现为"密度—距离"2D类型,杭州表现为"距离—整合"2D类型,南通等表现为"距离"1D类型,绍兴等表现为"整合"1D类型,扬州等表现出0D类型;3长三角城市群的经济密度、心理距离、制造业专业化指数和外商直接投资均与劳动生产率存在显著性,弹性系数分别为1.727、0.218、0.102和0.237,而交通综合可达性作用不再显著,说明现阶段提升城市群内部经济密度和整合内外部资源比缩短各城市间距离更为重要。     

土地利用冲突的时空格局刻画与多情景模拟研究——以长江三角洲城市群为例

科学刻画与模拟土地利用冲突的时空演化格局是精准认知区域土地利用结构进而寻求人地关系协调的基础。采用景观格局指数构建土地利用冲突模型,借助GIS等手段分析长江三角洲城市群1980—2020年间土地利用冲突的时空演化特征,并结合斑块生成土地利用变化模拟模型和多目标规划法多情景模拟2035年的土地利用冲突格局。结果表明：①长江三角洲城市群土地利用冲突受地形等因素影响呈现“北高南低”的分布格局,且在高速城镇化和城市无序蔓延等因素作用下,人地关系趋于不协调发展,土地利用冲突程度逐年加剧。②受人口迁徙和城镇化发展阶段的影响,土地利用冲突的热点区域由乡村空间转移至了城市空间。③在土地利用过程中,耕地是各利益主体争夺的核心区域,也是权衡土地利用冲突的“关键地带”。④可持续发展情景兼顾了经济发展与生态保护两方面的用地需求,是缓和土地利用冲突的一种合理选择。     

长江三角洲城市群发展展望

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