基于灰色关联分析的遗传神经网络在水下爆破中质点峰值振动速度预测研究

水下爆破是一个复杂的、非线性的动态能量释放过程,其涉及到的影响因素众多。为了充分利用少量的实测数据,较准确地预测水下爆破质点峰值振动速度,引入灰色关联分析理论,并结合遗传神经网络较强的非线性映射优势和全局化的搜索能力,建立基于灰色关联分析的遗传神经网络模型(GRA-GA-BP)。该模型利用灰色关联分析理论,充分挖掘小样本潜在信息特征,较合理地确定了影响爆破振动速度的主要因素,解决了神经网络在多变量复杂系统中输入变量无法自动寻优的难题,从而增强了神经网络的适应能力和稳定性。采用该模型对广东台山核电站1期工程大襟岛水下爆破开挖质点峰值振动速度进行预测,并与传统的遗传神经网络及萨道夫斯基公式预测结果进行对比,发现GRA-GA-BP模型的预测值与实测值吻合更好,预测误差更稳定。研究方法可为小样本、多因素影响下类似工程质点峰值振动速度预测提供借鉴。     

Prediction of peak particle velocity and peak air pressure generated by buried explosion

Summary Three sets of different formulae expressed as functions of dynamic elastic constants of rock and some design parameters involved in a buried explosion are derived explicitly for the prediction of peak particle velocity (PPV) and peak air pressure (PAP). Separate equations are derived to estimate PPV and PAP for inside, outside, and at the boundary of the crater zone. The equations incorporate the physical parameters including (i) longitudinal wave velocity, (ii) shear wave velocity, (iii) density of rock, (iv) characteristic impedance of air, (v) detonation pressure of explosive, (vi) depth of hole, (vii) radius of hole, (viii) distance of the measuring transducer. Suggested equations are tested for a few hard and medium-hard rocks. Characteristic features and important conclusions are described.     

小波降噪与粒子群优化综合回归爆破震动参数

爆破震动测试得到的数据常常具有较大的离散性,采用剔除错误数据和小波降噪对爆破震动检测数据进行预处理,以标准残差平方和作为爆破振动实测数据与萨道夫斯基公式拟合值偏差大小的判断依据,应用小波降噪对实测数据进行处理的方法,优化了粒子群算法对萨道夫斯基公式中的k和 的回归分析。研究结果表明,小波降噪和粒子群优化算法结合使用,能够较真实地反映爆破震动测试的真实情况,从而提高了对爆破震动测试模拟的精度。研究结果对爆破振动测试理论和工程实践具有一定的参考价值。     

The mitigation of the vibration effects caused by tunnel blasts in urban areas: a case study in Istanbul

Ground vibrations generated by commercial explosives in tunnel construction may cause structural damage in urban areas. Therefore, suppressing the vibration effects and mitigating the possible hazard after blasting is important. We present a new method of controlled blasting that is environmentally friendly, and easy to utilize for tunnel construction. Small charges in this method are detonated sequentially to produce minimum side effects. The efficiency of the charges may be increased based on the previously monitored shots. This method is utilized in a tunnel construction in Istanbul with five experimental shots. In these experiments, the duration and also the quantity of explosives were carefully controlled. We were able to obtain better results with short durations (480 ms) instead of long durations (9,000 ms) although the vibration levels defined as peak particle velocity (PPV) became bigger while the quantity of the explosive charge increased from 3.088 to 9.264 kg.     

爆破振动速度测试精细分析

为确定爆破震动衰减规律,通常采用最大振动速度、最大单段药量、布点到爆区中心的距离这3个变量回归计算萨道夫斯基振动速度公式系数。为精细分析爆破振动衰减规律,用单段延时串联起爆网路,结合测试速度图谱的不同时刻最大值、对应单段药量、布点到不同孔位距离,依据一元线性回归原理计算出振动速度公式系数,为爆破振动测试提供了一种精细分析方法。     

爆破振动对砂浆锚杆的影响研究

爆破振动对锚杆有不利影响,运用应力波理论,并利用波函数展开法,研究了爆炸应力波与锚杆的相互作用过程,给出了爆破振动作用下砂浆锚杆周围砂浆体中的动应力和峰值振速分布情况,比较了不同频率应力波对锚杆的影响,导出了不同频率应力波作用下砂浆锚杆的安全质点振速范围。研究结果表明：入射波频率越高,砂浆锚杆所允许的安全质点峰值振速越大。     

基于多元回归分析的煤储层高渗区预测——以沁水盆地为例

煤储层的渗透性是控制煤层气开采的主要储层参数之一。本文以沁水盆地为例,在总结我国煤储层渗透性特征的基础上,依据煤储层渗透性的影响因素,用多元回归分析方法建立煤储层渗透性预测模型。沁水盆地煤储层渗透性的多元回归方程,具有较高的拟合度。预测结果显示,沁水盆地有利于煤层气开发的高渗区,主要集中在南部的潘庄-阳城、北部的阳泉-寿阳及太原西山煤田等地区。     

基于多元逐步回归分析的煤储层含气量预测模型——以沁水盆地为例

以沁水盆地为例,运用多元逐步回归分析方法,建立了以Langmuir体积和含气饱和度为参数的含气量预测模型;复相关系数、F检验、t检验结果表明,该模型满足线性与方差齐性的假设,拟合效果较好。运用此模型,结合多因素权重分析确定的含气饱和度和实测的Langmuir体积数据,实现了沁水盆地山西组主煤层含气量预测。对比分析显示,该含气量预测模型有一定的可行性。     

Prediction of ground vibration due to quarry blasting based on gene expression programming: a new model for peak particle velocity prediction

Blasting is a widely used technique for rock fragmentation in opencast mines and tunneling projects. Ground vibration is one of the most environmental effects produced by blasting operation. Therefore, the proper prediction of blast-induced ground vibrations is essential to identify safety area of blasting. This paper presents a predictive model based on gene expression programming (GEP) for estimating ground vibration produced by blasting operations conducted in a granite quarry, Malaysia. To achieve this aim, a total number of 102 blasting operations were investigated and relevant blasting parameters were measured. Furthermore, the most influential parameters on ground vibration, i.e., burden-to-spacing ratio, hole depth, stemming, powder factor, maximum charge per delay, and the distance from the blast face were considered and utilized to construct the GEP model. In order to show the capability of GEP model in estimating ground vibration, nonlinear multiple regression (NLMR) technique was also performed using the same datasets. The results demonstrated that the proposed model is able to predict blast-induced ground vibration more accurately than other developed technique. Coefficient of determination values of 0.914 and 0.874 for training and testing datasets of GEP model, respectively show superiority of this model in predicting ground vibration, while these values were obtained as 0.829 and 0.790 for NLMR model.     

基于多元线性回归分析的页岩气有利区评价新方法——以上扬子地区五峰组—龙马溪组海相页岩为例

本文以四川盆地及其周缘五峰组-龙马溪组页岩气评价为例,总结了页岩气有利区优选的储层参数、保存参数和压力系数等参数,量化了各关键参数平面分布,运用多元线性回归分析方法计算了参数权重,通过多参数加权叠加公式建立了多元线性回归模型：有利区=-0.317+0.75×埋深+0.285×TOC+0.148×R_O+0.093×孔隙度-0.128×渗透率+0.201×脆性矿物-0.199×压力系数,并开展了定量化优选评价页岩气有利区工作。分析结果表明,各参数权重由大到小排序为：埋深、TOC、脆性矿物和压力系数、R_O、孔隙度、渗透率,代表对含气性的影响作用依次减小。经过量化优选的有利区主要集中于四川盆地内,包括威远-自贡一线、宜宾-泸州-涪陵一线和川东区域为主,盆外的昭通、金沙、道真和黔江区域为相对有利区。该预测评价结果与四川盆地页岩气勘探实际基本相符,有利区表现形式较传统综合地质方法更清晰、直观。     

以剪切波速与地表峰值加速度为依据的地震液化确定性及概率判别法

剪切波速作为土性的基本参数,为评价土体抵抗地震液化的能力提供了一种方法。回顾了以剪切波速和地表峰值加速度为依据的场地地震液化判别方法的演化历史,依据他人收集的现场液化资料,合计49次地震、618例液化/不液化场地数据,提出了确定液化临界曲线的基本原则,给出了基于修正剪切波速与地表峰值加速度的液化临界曲线,验证了液化临界曲线的位置对细粒含量、有效上覆压力、震级等因素取值变化的合理性,分析了估计土层循环应力比CSR的剪应力折减系数、震级标定系数、有效上覆压力修正系数等因素的不确定性对液化临界曲线的敏感性。结果表明：液化临界曲线对各种影响因素具有很好的适用性。利用Monte Carlo模拟、加权最大似然法和加权经验概率法,给出了建议的液化临界曲线的名义抗液化安全系数与液化概率的经验关系式及概率等值线,并对核电厂Ⅰ类、Ⅱ类和Ⅲ类抗震物项地基,分别建议了相应的液化临界曲线。该方法以丰富的现场液化数据为依据,具有广泛的应用前景。     

天津市地下水开采对地面沉降影响的多元回归分析

地下水的过量开采是天津市引起地面沉降的主要原因。因此天津市提出了“压缩地下水开采量”、“地下水人工回灌”、“调整地下水开采层次”等控制地面沉降的3大技术措施。经过多年的努力,控制地面沉降效果明显。如何解决地下水开发与控制地面沉降的关系,更好的贯彻这3大技术措施,是该文编写的初衷。即在开采同样地下水量的情况下,如何使地面沉降量最小;或在地面沉降量容许的情况下,如何开采最大量的地下水。压缩地下水开采量是治理地面沉降的根本措施,亦即如何压缩采水量或调整开采层次会达到最好效果。论文对天津市某区各个地下水开采层的多年累计开采量、累计沉降量进行数据统计分析,建立了该地区累计沉降量及各个地下水开采层的多元相关方程。在此基础上,分析了各个地下水开采层对地面沉降影响的相关程度。以此为该区控制地面沉降的提供依据。     

多元线性回归分析在车大人沟河泥石流分区与评价中的应用

本文在概述车大人沟河流域泥石流形成的地形地貌、物源和水源等条件的基础上，采用多元线性回归分析方法，选取了物源储量、支沟完整性系数、支沟边坡坡度、支沟沟床比降、冲沟密度、侵蚀模数、不良地质现象和植被覆盖率等八个指标作为自变量，建立与泥石流活跃度间相关关系的数学表达式，计算出车大人沟河40条泥石流支沟活跃度值，从而进行分区评价。将该区泥石流活跃度划分为高、中、低易发区和不发育区，其结果与实地灾情相符，可为车大人沟河流域泥石流防治规划提供科学依据。     

Experimental and simulation studies on the role of fluid velocity during particle separation in a liquid–solid fluidized bed

The fluidization technique has been in use for particulate material processing operations for many years. It has been widely believed that the ratio of size and density of the particulate components controls the separation efficiency. In this paper, it is demonstrated that fluid velocity during fluidization could assume an overriding significance when an improvement in separation efficiency is required. This was at first experimentally established by analyzing simpler particulate systems, and later a simulation scheme was adopted to study a wider range of particulate systems. The numerical scheme known as the discrete element method (DEM), that incorporates both the solid- and hydro-dynamic components of the interactive forces, served as an important tool in understanding the separation behavior of binary particulate systems in fluidized beds. It has been established that mere fluidization does not necessarily guarantee an optimal separation, especially when the particles differ widely in density and size.     

Landslide susceptibility analysis and its verification using likelihood ratio, logistic regression, and artificial neural network models: case study of Youngin, Korea

The likelihood ratio, logistic regression, and artificial neural networks models are applied and verified for analysis of landslide susceptibility in Youngin, Korea, using the geographic information system. From a spatial database containing such data as landslide location, topography, soil, forest, geology, and land use, the 14 landslide-related factors were calculated or extracted. Using these factors, landslide susceptibility indexes were calculated by likelihood ratio, logistic regression, and artificial neural network models. Before the calculation, the study area was divided into two sides (west and east) of equal area, for verification of the models. Thus, the west side was used to assess the landslide susceptibility, and the east side was used to verify the derived susceptibility. The results of the landslide susceptibility analysis were verified using success and prediction rates. The verification results showed satisfactory agreement between the susceptibility map and the existing data on landslide locations.     

Explorative data analysis of heavy metal contaminated soil using multidimensional spatial regression

To obtain data on heavy metal contaminated soil requires laborious and time-consuming data sampling and analysis. Not only has the contamination to be measured, but also additional data characterizing the soil and the boundary conditions of the site, such as pH, land use, and soil fertility. For an integrative approach, combining the analysis of spatial distribution, and of factors influencing the contamination, and its treatment, the Mollifier interpolation was used, which is a non-parametric kernel density regression. The Mollifier was capable of including additional independent variables (beyond the spatial dimensions x and y) in the spatial interpolation and hence explored the combined influence of spatial and other variables, such as land use, on the heavy metal distribution. The Mollifier could also represent the interdependence between different heavy metal concentrations and additional site characteristics. Although the uncertainty measure supplied by the Mollifier at first seems somewhat unusual, it is a valuable feature and supplements the geostatistical uncertainty assessment.     

基于量纲分析的非充分采动导水裂缝带高度预测

为准确预测非充分采动导水裂缝带高度,选取开采厚度M、煤层埋深H、工作面倾斜长度L、煤层倾角α、覆岩力学性质R、覆岩结构特征S为非充分采动导水裂缝带高度主要影响因素。采用量纲分析建立了导水裂缝带高度与M,H,L,α,S间的无量纲关系式。结合30组实测数据,采用多元回归得到无量纲关系式的最优函数关系式。选取2个非充分采动工作面导水裂缝带现场实例对预测模型进行了工程验证,预测模型预测结果与实测结果吻合良好,其相对误差分别为3.64%和2.93%,预测模型的预测精度可以满足煤矿安全生产现场需要。     

井间地震时频域联合速度和衰减系数同步层析反演

井间地震资料中蕴含丰富的地下储层岩性和物性信息,利用井间地震直达波初至信息,通过层析反演可以得到两井之间的速度剖面。通过对井间地震直达波振幅衰减信息的处理,可以实现井间的吸收衰减层析成像。基于井间地震直达波射线路径的一致性,提出了井间地震时域直达波走时层析反演和频域质心频率衰减层析同步反演方法,增加了约束条件,增强了抗干扰能力。对模型和实际资料的处理结果表明,速度和吸收衰减同步反演方法,提高了速度层析反演精度,得到了对油气更为敏感的衰减属性,增强了井间地震在储层描述和油气预测中的应用能力。     

峰丛洼地自然封育过程岩溶水溶解无机碳的变化——以桂林丫吉试验场为例

以桂林丫吉试验场为例,检验植被恢复对岩溶碳汇的影响作用。上世纪80年代,丫吉试验场峰丛洼地的植被受砍伐干扰,地表以草地居多,此后施行自然封山育林,植被经二十多年的封育后,现在变成为灌木林,土壤中植物根系呼吸和微生物异养呼吸增强,土壤空气中CO2含量上升,岩溶作用增强,泉水输出的无机碳通量增加。通过建立系统的水化学混合模型,将泉水的无机碳通量分解为原水输出和降雨补给引起的新水输出。在一次典型的强降雨过程,S31岩溶泉原水输出量占总量的65%~83%,而降雨补给引起的新水无机碳输出通量较少,且不能反映生态环境的变化,因此应以原水中溶解无机碳的浓度衡量整个生态环境对岩溶作用的影响。长期的观测表明由于植被的改变导致原水输出的无机碳含量提高了27%,而原水在岩溶泉的年流量中所占的比例高达72%~84%,其中由植被演化造成岩溶碳汇增加的幅度为19%~23%。      

Advanced reliability analysis of slopes in spatially variable soils using multivariate adaptive regression splines

This study aims to extend the multivariate adaptive regression splines(MARS)-Monte Carlo simulation(MCS) method for reliability analysis of slopes in spatially variable soils. This approach is used to explore the influences of the multiscale spatial variability of soil properties on the probability of failure(P_f) of the slopes. In the proposed approach, the relationship between the factor of safety and the soil strength parameters characterized with spatial variability is approximated by the MARS, with the aid of Karhunen-Loeve expansion. MCS is subsequently performed on the established MARS model to evaluate Pf.Finally, a nominally homogeneous cohesive-frictional slope and a heterogeneous cohesive slope, which are both characterized with different spatial variabilities, are utilized to illustrate the proposed approach.Results showed that the proposed approach can estimate the P_f of the slopes efficiently in spatially variable soils with sufficient accuracy. Moreover, the approach is relatively robust to the influence of different statistics of soil properties, thereby making it an effective and practical tool for addressing slope reliability problems concerning time-consuming deterministic stability models with low levels of P_f.Furthermore, disregarding the multiscale spatial variability of soil properties can overestimate or underestimate the P_f. Although the difference is small in general, the multiscale spatial variability of the soil properties must still be considered in the reliability analysis of heterogeneous slopes, especially for those highly related to cost effective and accurate designs.