湖南省耕地动态变化及驱动机制研究

利用1949~1999年的统计和普查数据,分析探讨了湖南省近50年来耕地数量变化及区域差异,并在此基础上进一步探讨了影响耕地数量动态变化的驱动机制。结果表明:50年来,湖南省耕地总体态势逐年下降,耕地变化区域差异显著;经济增长是形成湖南省耕地数量变化的主要宏观驱动因子,耕地快速减少在发生时间上与经济发展的增长基本同步,具体则受固定资产投资规模的牵动;在空间分布上具有与地区间经济发展速度和水平的差异相一致的特点。影响耕地数量动态变化驱动机制具体表现为:非农产业的发展建设与人口城镇化的发展对耕地的冲击,种植业效益下降、耕地利用方向的调整以及管理上的不完善和疏漏等。     

区域最小人均耕地面积与耕地资源调控

耕地资源对农业和国民经济可持续发展起着不可替代的基础性作用。中国人均耕地资源短缺，快速工业化、城市化进程对耕地的占用使耕地资源更趋紧张。目前的市场机制必然驱动耕地资源不断向获利更多的用途转移，最终会危急食物安全。因此，创新耕地资源利用与保护的调控机制已迫切之至。基于中国耕地资源流失原因及态势的分析，提出了最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数概念，并以此为基础提出了构建耕地资源利用和管理调控机制的思路。实际数据分析结果表明，以最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数作为耕地保护的基本标准，能因地制宜地兼顾食物安全和经济发展对土地的需求，具有显著的科学性和可操作性。     

2007年中国耕地资源安全评价

本文从耕地资源的数量安全、质量安全和生态安全3个方面,选取14个指标评价和分析了2007年中国的耕地资源安全状况。本文的数据主要来源于国土资源部土地利用变更数据、农用地分等定级数据、第二次土壤普查数据和统计数据。研究显示：（1）2007年,中国耕地资源安全评价分值为0．517,资源安全保障程度不高。区域上,耕地资源安全呈现出东部高、西部低的特点,高耕地资源安全省份主要有东部和中部的山东、福建、浙江等10个省份以及西部的新疆和西藏;低资源安全省份则大多分布在西部地区,包括陕西、内蒙古、甘肃、青海、宁夏等省份。②耕地资源数量安全评价分值为0．195,资源安全分布呈现出东北部较高,黄土高原、华北平原和四川盆地较低的特点。生态退耕和建设占用带来的耕地快速减少,以及区域粮食生产定位形成的较高耕地保有量目标是造成以上地区耕地数量安全程度较低的主要原因。③耕地质量安全评价分值为0．151,呈现出东部高、东北部和西部较低的特点。区域耕地自然本底质量（耕地自然质量等别）是造成区域耕地质量安全差别的主要原因。④耕地生态安全的评价分值为0．171,呈现出东北部高、东部低的特点。东部地区耕地资源生态安全偏低的主要原因是化肥、农药、农膜的过量施用及其引起的土壤污染问题;西部地区耕地生态安全程度不高的主要原因是相对严重的耕地水土流失状况。     

山东省耕地资源安全问题研究

构建耕地资源安全概念模型,通过对人口资源压力极值状态下的耕地资源安全需求与可能供给之间的综合平衡,分析山东省耕地资源安全态势。2004年山东省耕地总量为754万hm2,预测2020年全省耕地资源的安全需求量为747万hm2,同期各种原因将减少耕地42.5万hm2,后备耕地潜力为50万hm2。理论上可保障耕地资源安全,但实践操作难度较大,据此提出保障山东省耕地资源安全的相应对策。     

湖南省耕地变化态势分析与预测

首先利用统计资料揭示了８０ 年代以来湖南省耕地减少的状况： ①年均耕地减少呈增长趋势;②耕地减少以非建设占用为主, 但其所占比重逐步下降; ③耕地建设占用以国家建设占用为主, 并呈快速增长趋势; ④耕地减少地区分布不均。进而运用相关分析、主成份分析和多元回归分析等方法,对湖南省耕地减少的原因进行系统分析与探索, 得出湖南省耕地建设占用主要是由于市镇人口增长、居民消费增长、地方财政基本建设支出扩大和经济发展等造成的。然后根据市镇人口对耕地减少的趋势进行预测, 指出到２０１０ 年如果将湖南省市镇人口控制在３ １５０ 万人以内, 并开发全部宜耕荒地１９ ×１０４ ｈｍ ２ , 则湖南省耕地将比１９９６ 年净增３７６ ×１０４ ｈｍ ２ 。最后提出了控制耕地减少的措施     

确保中国粮食安全的根本途径

以浙江省、河南省和陕西省为例,运用耕地压力指数模型,对我国东、中、西部粮食安全状况进行了定量分析.结果显示:人均耕地面积自东向西依次增大,但耕地压力指数中部最小,粮食安全水平高于东、西部,原因在于东部地区主要是由于耕地资源流失严重,导致人均耕地面积过度降低;西部地带尽管人均占有较多的耕地资源,但因自然、经济、技术条件等因素的限制,耕地生产率水平较低且提高缓慢,人均所需耕地面积较大,致使耕地仍然承受了相当大压力,粮食安全状况形势严峻.由此可见,耕地资源数量的丰缺,并不能全面反映粮食安全水平,即使拥有数量充足的耕地资源,但由于耕地生产率水平低下也将使粮食处于不安全状态.这并不是否认耕地保护的作用,在保护耕地占补平衡的同时,更要保护耕地的生产力水平,即保护耕地的质量.因此,在保持耕地面积相对稳定的基础上,依靠科技进步,增加物质和技术的投入,提高粮食单产,是今后中国保证粮食安全的必由之路.     

快速城市化中耕地非农化的社会学解析——以江苏省为例

为探讨土地资源社会价值内涵及其定量分析方法,揭示区域土地利用变化的社会驱动机理,采用文献分析和归纳演绎等方法开展研究,结果表明:土地资源社会功能包括土地资源的权属关系、土地利用管理模式、土地资源的社会稳定与社会保障等方面;采用耕地安全指数、粮食安全指数及劳动力流转指数可进行土地资源社会价值的定量化研究;目前,我国在土地利用管理中存在着国家一省(市)一农户三级管理体制,由于它们价值标准不同,从而产生不同的行动准则,这是当前耕地流失的主要原因之一.因此,农户土地利用活动很难自发杜绝耕地流失,必须借助于政府的土地利用规划、管理与宏观监控手段.最后,尝试构建了耕地非农化的多层推拉概念模型.     

新疆建设用地适宜性分析及空间配置优化策略

采用ArcGIS 10.2对新疆维吾尔自治区土地建设开发适宜性、建设用地开发程度、布局匹配度以及压力状态进行测算分析,结合自治区主体功能区规划,利用"木桶原理",进行宏观上的优化配置。结果表明:2018年新疆适宜建设区仅有33万km~2,占总土地面积的20.3%,适宜建设面积较少,建设开发可供选择的地域空间受到约束。94.3%的县市建设用地压力较小,建设开发格局与土地资源趋于协调。建设用地在压力大、中、小状态下得出8种优化配置方案,在建设用地指标供给及是否占用耕地指标等提出对策建议。     

湖南省耕地资源态势与粮食安全研究

文章分析了湖南省耕地面积对粮食生产贡献率随时间变化的特点,以及耕地退化对粮食生产的影响状况。研究表明,耕地资源数量和质量的变化对粮食生产构成持久的约束作用,耕地资源稀缺已成为制约粮食安全的瓶颈。为了实现粮食安全,应采用的根本措施在于保持耕地数量平衡,防治土地资源退化,加强全民粮食安全意识,建立复合高效农田生态经济系统,合理开发后备耕地资源等。     

新疆耕地资源安全问题及保护策略

粮食安全问题不仅涉及国家经济安全、社会安全,它还涉及到国家战略安全。耕地资源是粮食生产及粮食安全的基础,耕地资源安全居于国家资源安全的核心地位。我国耕地资源有限。由于耕地数量持续减少,耕地保护日益引起人们的关注。新疆是我国干旱区绿洲农业的主要分布区,也是后备耕地资源最为丰富的省区,在国家耕地保护战略上占据突出地位。然而新疆生态脆弱性强,不合理的水土资源开发引发的耕地退化问题已日趋严重。本文基于国家耕地资源安全层面,分析了新疆耕地资源特点、存在的问题及其诱因,进而探讨了耕地资源的保护策略。     

BOOK REVIEWS

Book Reviewed in this article: Development and Environment in Peninsular Malaysia . S. Robert Aiken, Colin H. Leigh, Thomas R. Leinbach, Michael R. Moss. The Rural-Urban Fringe: Canadian Perspectives . Ken B. Beesley and Lorne H. Russwurm, eds. Women and Development . Lourdes Benería, ed. The Border that Joins: Mexican Migrants and U.S. Responsibility . Peter G. Brown and Henry Shue, eds. Cities of the World: World Regional Urban Development . Stanley D. Brunn and Jack L. Williams, eds. Time Resources, Society, and Ecology: On the Capacity for Human Interaction in Space and Time (Vol. I, Preindustrial Societies). Tommy Carlstein. Urban Geography . David Clark. Spanish City Planning in North America . Dora P. Crouch, Daniel J. Garr, and Axel I. Mundigo. Not On Our Street: Community Attitudes to Mental Health Care . M. J. Dear and S. M. Taylor Unequal growth: Urban and Regional Employment Change in the U.K. Stephen Fothergill and Graham Gudgin. Agricultural Land in an Urban Society . Owen J. Furuseth and John T. Pierce. The Petroleum Industry in Oil-Importing Developing Countries . Fariborz Ghadar. Historical Understanding in Geography, An Idealist Approach . Leonard Guelke. Regional Planning in Europe . R. Hudson and J. R. Lewis, eds. Remote Sensing for Resource Management . Chris J. Johannsen and James L. Sanders, eds. Geography and The State . R. J. Johnston. Texas Graveyards: a Cultural Legacy . Tlrry G. Jordan. The Politics of Location: An Introduction . Andrew Kirby. A Social Geography of the City . David Ley. Energy and the Future . Douglas MacLean and Peter Brown, eds. The Natural Environment of Newfoundland Past and Present . A. G. Macpherson and J. B. Macpherson, eds. Tourism: Economic, Physical and Social Impacts . Alister Mathieson and Geoffrey Wall. Railroads and Land Grant Policy: A Study in Government Intervention . Lloyd J. Mercer. Progress in Rural Geography . Michael Pacione, ed. Progress in Urban Geography . Michael Pacione, ed. Models of Spatial Inequality: Settlement Patterns in Historical Archaeology . Robert Paynter. Natural Hazard Risk Assessment and Public Policy, Anticipating the Unexpected . William J. Petak and Arthur A. Atkisson. The Nature of Geomorphology . Alistair F. Pitty. Regional Conflict and National Policy . Kent A. Price Women and Spatial Change: Learning Resources for Social Science Courses . Arlene C. Rengert and Janice J. Monk, eds. Urban and Regional Analysis for Development Planning . Richard Rhoda. Rivers: Form and Process in Alluvial Channels . Keith Richards. This Remarkable Continent: An Atlas of United States and Canadian Society and Culture . John F. Rooney, Jr., Wilbur Zelinsky, and Dean R. Louder, gen. eds. The Origins of Open-Field Agriculture . Trevor Rowley, ed. Residential Location Determinants of the Older Population . Gundars Rudzitis. Borderland Sourcebook: A Guide to the Literature on Northern Mexico and the American Southwest . Ellwyn R. Stoddard, Richard L. Nostrand, and Jonathan P. West, eds. Arctic and Antarctic . David Sugden. Tall Timbers Ecology and Management Conference, February 22–24, 1979, Proceedings No. 16 . Graphic Communication and Design in Contemporary Cartography (Progress in Contemporary Cartography , Vol. II). D. R. Fraser Taylor, ed. Living with Energy Shortfall: A Future for American Towns and Cities . Jon Van Til. The United States: Habitation of Hope . J. Wreford Watson. Air Photo Interpretation for Archaeologists . D. R. Wilson. Urban and Rural Change in West Germany . Trevor Wild, ed. Population and Resources . Harry Robinson.     

BOOK REVIEWS

Book Reviewed in this article: Geography and the Third World. International Seminar, 14–18 May 1980, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia . Ishmail Ahmad and Jamaluddin Md Jahi, eds. The Growth Dilemma: Residents' Views and Local Population Change in the United States . Mark Baldassare. Sport and Place: A Geography of Sport in England, Scotland & Wales . John Bale. The Deindustrialization of America: Plant Closings, Community Abandonment, and the Dismantling of Basic Industry . Barry Bluestone and Bennett Harrison. Selected Essays 1963–1975: Carl O. Sauer . Bob Callahen, ed. Housing and Planning in the Countryside . G. Clark. Conflict, Politics and the Urban Scene . Kevin R. Cox and R. J. Johnston, eds. Thematic Maps: Their Design and Production . David J. Cuff and Mark T. Mattson. Wine: A Geographic Appreciation . Harm Jan de Blij. USSR in Maps . J. C. Dewdney. Political Geography: A Contemporary Perspective . Ramesh D. Dikshit. Rethinking Human Adaptation . Rada Dyson-Hudson and Michael A. Little, eds. Sacred Sands: The Struggle for Community in the indiana Dunes . J. Ronald Engel. Geography of the Biosphere . A. Furley and Walter W. Newey. Disaster and Reconstruction . Robert Geipel. Glasgow: The Making of a City . Andrew Gibb. Design for Arid Regions . Giden S. Golany, ed. Urbanization and Cancer Mortality: The United States Experience, 1950–1975 . Michael R. Greenberg. Geology in the Nineteenth Century: Changing Views of a Changing World . Mott T. Greene. Colonización y Destrucción de Bosques en Panamá . Stanley Heckadon Moreno and Alberto McKay, eds. Urban Geography: A First Approach . David T. Herbert and Colin J. Thomas. The Visual and Spatial Structure of Landscapes . Tadahiko Higuchi. Climate from Tree Rings . M. K. Hughes, P. M. Kelly, J. R. Pilcher, and V. C. LaMarche, Jr., eds. The structure of Nineteenth Century Cities . James H. Johnson and Colin G. Pooley, eds. The American Planner: Biographies and Recollections . Donald A. Krueckeberg, ed. Urban Land Policy For the 1980s, the Message for State and Local Government . George Lefcoe, ed. Regional Planning: Evolution, Crisis and Prospects . Gill C. Lim, ed. Relevance and Ethics In Geography . Bruce Mitchell and Dianne Draper. China: The Geography of Development and Modernization . Clifton W. Pannell and Laurence J. C. MA. The Urban Retailing System . Robert B. Potter. Hants. Nonconventional Energy Resources . Philip R. Pryde. Caribbean Migrants: Environment and Human Survival on St. Kitts and Nevis . Bonham C. Richardson. Population and Resources . Harry Robinson. East Los Angeles: History of A Barrio . Ricardo Romo. Integrated Impact Assessment . Frederick A. Rossini and Alan L. Porter, eds. Environmental Aesthetics: Essays in Interpretation . Barry Sadler and Allen Carlson, eds. Earthwatch . Charles Sheffield. Field Techniques and Research Methods in Geography . Robert H. Stoddard. Haiti: Land of Poverty . Robert J. Tata. Weathering and Erosion: Sources and Methods in Geography . Stephen T. Trudgill. Once Beneath the Forest. Prehistoric Terracing in the Río Bec Region of the Maya Lowlands . B. L. Turner, II. The Historical Geography of Scotland since 1707 . David Turnock.     

PRODUCTIVITY OF AMERICAN PH.D.-GRANTING DEPARTMENTS OF GEOGRAPHY

Reviews of geographic software in this article:

DEMO-GRAPHICS: WORLD POPULATIONS AND PROJECTIONS.

ESP

GAUSS.

CEMODEL S. Damus

LIMDEP. William H. Greene

MICROSTAT 4.1

OTIS

PCIPS. (Personal Computer Image Processing System). H.J. Meyers and R. Bernstein.

REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF TIME SERIES (RATS)

SPSS/PC+

URBAN DATA MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE (UDMS)     

BOOK REVIEWS

Book Reviewed in this article: Rabat: Urban Apartheid in Morocco . Janet Abu -Lughod . Marketplaces in a Developing Country: The Case of Western Nigeria . Isaac Ayinde Adalemo . Farming Development and Space: A World Agricultural Geography . Bernd Andreae . Section and Party: A Political Geography of American Presidential Elections, from Andrew Jackson to Ronald Reagan . J. Clark Archer and Peter J. Taylor . Women and Space: Ground Rules and Social Maps . Shirley Ardener , ed. European Progress in Spatial Analysis . R. J. Bennett , ed. The Origins of Academic Geography in the United States . Brian W. Blouet Geographic Perspectives on Global Problems . Ronald Reed Boyce . Seasonal Dimensions to Rural Poverty . Robert Chambers , Richard Longhurst and Arnold Pacey eds. The New Nationalism and the Use of Common Spaces: Issues in Marine Pollution and the Exploitation of Antarctica . Jonathan I. Charney , ed. Communications Tomorrow: The Coming of the Information Society . Edward Cornish , ed. The Design of Suburbia . Arthur Edwards . Explorer on the Northern Plains: Lieutenant Gouverneur K. Warren's Preliminary Report of Explorations in Nebraska and Dakota in the Years 1855–56–57. With an Introduction by Frank N. Schubert . The Changing Climate: Responses of the Natural Flora and Fauna . Michael J. Ford . Essentials of Physical Geography . Robert E. Gabler , Robert J. Sager , Sheila Brazier , and Daniel L. Wise. The Road to Jaramillo . William Glen . Valued Environments . John R. Gold and Jacquelin Burgess , eds. Proximity and Preference: Problems in the Multidimensional Analysis of Large Data Sets . Reginald G. Golledge and John N. Rayner , eds. A Search for Common Ground . Peter Gould and Gunnar Olsson , eds. Geography: Its History and Concepts . Arild Holt -Jensen . A Population Geography . Huw R. Jones . The Human Mosaic: A Thematic Introduction to Cultural Geography, 3rd ed. Terry G. Jordan and Lester Rowntree . Urban Social Geography: An Introduction . Paul Knox . The Anatomy of Job Loss: The How, Why and Where of Employment Decline . Doreen Massey and Richard Meegan . The Information Society as Post-Industial Society . Yoneji Masuda . Map Librarianship, 2nd ed. Harold Nichols . India: Cultural Patterns and Processes . Allen G. Noble and Ashok K. Dutt , eds. The God that Limps: Science and Technology in the Eighties . Colin Norman . Geography: An Introductory Perspective . Robert E. Norris , Keith D. Harries and John D. Vitek . The Politics of Technology Assessment . David M. O'Brien and Donald A. Marchand . Ethnic Segregation in Cities . Ceri Peach , Vaughan Robinson and Susan Smith , eds. Churches and Church Membership in the United States, 1980 . Bernard Quinn , Herman Anderson , Martin Bradley , Paul Goetting and Peggy Shriver . Energy in Australia: Politics and Economics . Hugh Saddler . Development from Above or Below? The Dialectics of Regional Planning in Developing Countries . Walter B. Stóuhr and D. R. Fraser Taylor , eds. Human Impact on the Ecosystem . Joy Tivy and Greg O'Hare . Plants and People: Vegetation Change in North America . Thomas R. Vale . The Mapmakers: The Story of the Great Pioneers in Cartography from Antiquity to the Space Age . John Noble Wilford .     

Deserts and Aeolian Desertification in China: Book review and some thoughts

Desertification is a global phenomenon that affects about two billion people. It occurs in arid zones where the annual precipitation is below 400 mm, partic- ularly in the marginal areas of the world＇s largest deserts. It is a result of water and wind erosion, over- grazing, global warm-ing, improper soil cultivation, and increased pressure ot population growth, and it causes degradation of soil and natural and agricultural vegetation. The direct result is less food for people and livestock, which influences pop- ulation and animal husbandry fluctuations. Despite ef- forts to combat and reduce desertification, the affected areas are annually increasing.     

BOOK REVIEWS

Book Reviewed in this article: The Rice Economy of Asia . Randolph Barker and Robert W. Herdt with Beth Rose. Using Microcomputers: A Guidebook for Writers, Teachers, and Researchers in the Social Sciences . Blaine A. Erie—the Lake that Survived . Noel M. Burns. Geology and Society . Donald R. Coates. Caves and Karst of Kentucky . Percy H. Dougherty, ed. Altered Harvest: Agriculture, Genetics, and the Fate of the World's Food Supply . Jack Doyle. The Middle East and North Africa, A Political Geography . Alasdair Drysdale and Gerald H. Blake. Clamor at the Gates. The New American Immigration . Nathan Glazer, ed. Development and the Landowner: An analysis of the British experience . Robin Goodchild and Richard Munton. Discovering Landscape in England and Wales . Andrew Goudie and Rita Gardner. The Modern Plantation in the Third World . Edgar Graham and Ingrid Floering. Social Relations and Spatial Structures . Derek Gregory and John Urry, eds. The World Food Problem 1950–1980 . David Grigg. Costa Rica: A Geographical Interpretation in Historical Perspective . Carolyn Hall. The Urbanization of Capital: Studies in the History and Theory of Capitalist Urbanization . David Harvey Consciousness and the Urban Experience: Studies in the History and Theory of Capitalist Urbanization . David Harvey. Reviving Main Street . Deryck Holdsworth, ed. Rural Roads and Poverty Alleviation . John Howe and Peter Richards, eds. Uneven Development in Southern Europe: Studies of Accumulation, Class, Migration and the State . Ray Hudson and Jim Lewis, eds. Karst Geomorphology . J. N. Jennings. The Geomorphology of North-west England . R. H. Johnson, ed. Climate Impact Assessment: Studies of the Interaction of Climate and Society . Robert Kates, Jesse Ausubel, Mimi Berberian, eds. Public Service Provision and Urban Development . Andrew Kirby, Paul Knox, and Steven Pinch, ed. State and Market: The Politics of the Public and the Private . Jan-Erik Lane, ed. Living Cities . Twentieth Century Fund Task Force on Urban Preservation Policies. World Climatic Systems . John G. Lockwood. Urban Ethnicity in the United States. New Immigrants and Old Minorities . Lionel Maldonaldo and Joan Moore, eds. Culture and Conservation: The Human Dimension in Environmental Planning . Jeffrey A. McNeely and David Pitt, eds. The Andean Past. Land, Societies, and Conflicts . Magnus Mörner. Gaia: An Atlas of Planet Management . Norman Myers, ed. Progress in Industrial Geography . Michael Pacione, ed. Progress in Political Geography . Michael Pacione, ed. Rivers and Landscape . Geoff Petts and Ian Foster. Urbanization and Planning in the 3rd World: Spatial Perceptions and Public Participation . Robert B. Potter. One Island, Two Nations? A Political Geographical Analysis of the National Conflict in Ireland . D. G. Pringle. Circulation in Third World Countries . R. Mansell Prothero and Murray Chapman. The Ozarks Outdoors: A Guide for Fishermen, Hunters, and Tourists . Milton D. Rafferty. Suburban Burglary: A Time and a Place for Everything . George Rengert and John Wasilchick. Geomorphology and Soils . K.S. Richards, R.R. Arnett, and S. Ellis, eds. The Homes and Homeless of Post-War Britain . Frederick Shaw. Indochinese Refugees in America . Paul J. Strand and Woodrow Jones, Jr. Wild Horses and Sacred Cows . Richard Symanski. Forever Wild: Environmental Aesthetics and the Adirondack Forest Preserve . Philip G. Terrie. The Regional Economic Impact of Technological Change . A.T. Thwaites and R.P. Oakey, eds. The Good Life . Yi-Fu Tuan.     

REVIEWS OF GEOGRAPHIC SOFTWARE

Reviews of geographic software in this article: DEMO-GRAPHICS: WORLD POPULATIONS AND PROJECTIONS. ESP GAUSS. CEMODEL S. Damus LIMDEP. William H. Greene MICROSTAT 4.1 OTIS PCIPS. (Personal Computer Image Processing System) . H.J. Meyers and R. Bernstein. REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF TIME SERIES (RATS) SPSS/PC+ URBAN DATA MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE (UDMS)     

Guidelines to Authors

1. Aims and scope
Sciences in Cold and Arid Regions （SCAR） is a bimonthly journal that publishes in English the latest research achievements in processes and the pattems of the Earth surface system in cold and arid regions. Researches in cold regions emphasize particularly on the cold-region-characterized physical,