尼日利亚经济增长机制和问题研究——基于荷兰病理论的分析

尼日利亚经济增长速度与石油市场盛衰息息相关,70年代石油产业繁荣时期和1999年以来初级产品超级周期中增长迅速,而80和90年代石油产业萧条时期则增长缓慢甚至出现负增长。2014年4月尼日利亚宣布调整统计基准年,GDP达5099亿美元,超越南非成为非洲最大经济体,两国经济实力的此消彼长正在改变非洲经济格局和投资版图。本文基于1970-2013年尼日利亚经济数据,分析了尼日利亚“荷兰病”主要症状,包括过度依赖石油产业,严重去工业化和去农业化,储蓄不足,投资效率低下,滋生财富集中、腐败、寻租、贫困化增长、基础设施不足、极端组织猖獗等多重严重社会问题。尼日利亚破解“荷兰病”的对策在于推动经济多元化,发展农业、劳动密集型制造业、炼油等石油行业下游产业,加大基础设施和人力资源投资,提升制度质量和执行效率。     

THE ALBERTA OIL SANDS FROM BOTH SIDES OF THE BORDER*

ABSTRACT. The United States produces less than half of the oil it consumes, a dependence unlikely to subside without drastic improvements in domestic production, development of renewable resources, and greater energy efficiency. All three of these actions, even if ultimately meaningful, will take time to produce results, so the United States is likely to continue to depend on outside suppliers. The most tempting of these suppliers is Canada, especially its massive oil sands in northeastern Alberta Province. In this article I ask why that is true and, more important whether the arrangement is mutually beneficial. The answers are strongly related to location; that is, the location of supply and the location of demand. The view from the south favors Canada above all other countries as a likely source for meeting the growing U.S. oil needs, yet not without accompanying unintended consequences. When viewed from the north, the monetary attraction of the oil sands is weakened by the environmental costs that are likely if their development expands as expected. Weighing these perspectives, the question is whether the combination of demand and environmental concerns leads to, accelerates, or discourages development. Viewing such a prospect from both sides of the border challenges the view that development of natural resources is always inevitable or wise, regardless of apparent profitability and need. Much depends on location.     

Unconventional Energy Resources: 2011 Review

This report contains nine unconventional energy resource commodity summaries prepared by committees of the Energy Minerals Division (EMD) of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists. Unconventional energy resources, as used in this report, are those energy resources that do not occur in discrete oil or gas reservoirs held in structural or stratigraphic traps in sedimentary basins. These resources include coal, coalbed methane, gas hydrates, tight gas sands, gas shale and shale oil, geothermal resources, oil sands, oil shale, and uranium resources. Current U.S. and global research and development activities are summarized for each unconventional energy commodity in the topical sections of this report. Coal and uranium are expected to supply a significant portion of the world’s energy mix in coming years. Coalbed methane continues to supply about 9% of the U.S. gas production and exploration is expanding in other countries. Recently, natural gas produced from shale and low-permeability (tight) sandstone has made a significant contribution to the energy supply of the United States and is an increasing target for exploration around the world. In addition, oil from shale and heavy oil from sandstone are a new exploration focus in many areas (including the Green River area of Wyoming and northern Alberta). In recent years, research in the areas of geothermal energy sources and gas hydrates has continued to advance. Reviews of the current research and the stages of development of these unconventional energy resources are described in the various sections of this report.     

Heavy Oil and Oil (Tar) Sands in North America: An Overview & Summary of Contributions

As conventional oil and gas reservoirs become depleted other unconventional energy sources have to be recovered and produced. Four of the major unconventional resources that are strategic for North American interests are heavy oil, oil sands, oil shales, and coal-bed methane. Recent interest and activity in Canada’s vast oil sands are progressing rapidly as soaring oil prices are fueling a ‘gold rush’ in oil sands development in Alberta. This interest is evident by the record-number of oil sands and heavy oil presentations at Energy Minerals Division (EMD)-sponsored sessions at the 2004 and 2005 Annual Conventions of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists (AAPG), held in Dallas, TX and Calgary, AB.     

俄罗斯和中亚五国资源开发现状与潜力分析

俄罗斯和中亚五国地域辽阔,土地、森林、水、能源等自然资源丰富,尤其是有色金属矿藏,种类配套齐全,在世界都占有重要地位。俄罗斯和中亚五国与中国在地缘、历史和文化等多方面有着悠久的历史,具有资源开发、经贸合作和科技交流的国际背景和有利条件。俄罗斯和中亚五国十分重视资源开发和原料出口,向主要经济合作伙伴推销资源产品,并很快引起许多国家,尤其是经济发展较快国家的重视。在未来的几年中,中国与俄罗斯和中亚五国在土地、电力、建材、机械、畜牧业、信息、交通等领域都有着广阔的合作空间。可以说,中国与俄罗斯和中亚五国及其辐射地区市场潜力巨大,待开发的领域空白点较多,特别是里海、西伯利亚的石油和天然气,是21世纪全球最具能源开发前景的地区,而能源勘探与开采领域则是我们未来需要重点发展合作的领域。但是,中亚国家的原料型经济倾向,参与世界经济一体化程度不足,生产和社会基础薄弱,这些问题都阻碍着中亚国家的可持续发展。特别是中亚国家的加工工业和轻工业相对落后,大部分日用消费品依靠进口。这是我国在中亚区域经济合作中充分发挥市场优势、加工业优势的有利条件。所以,资源和经济技术的互补性,对发展中国与中亚五国和俄罗斯双边的区域经济合作都将起到积极作用。展望21世纪的俄罗斯、中亚五国与中国的经贸合作关系,根据俄罗斯和中亚各国资源状况实地调查和统计资料等,对区域资源开发现状与潜力进行了分析,对共同面对的问题,合作的基础和条件及合作前景,都进行了探讨。     

Unconventional Energy Resources: 2007–2008 Review

This paper summarizes five 2007–2008 resource commodity committee reports prepared by the Energy Minerals Division (EMD) of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists. Current United States and global research and development activities related to gas hydrates, gas shales, geothermal resources, oil sands, and uranium resources are included in this review. These commodity reports were written to advise EMD leadership and membership of the current status of research and development of unconventional energy resources. Unconventional energy resources are defined as those resources other than conventional oil and natural gas that typically occur in sandstone and carbonate rocks. Gas hydrate resources are potentially enormous; however, production technologies are still under development. Gas shale, geothermal, oil sand, and uranium resources are now increasing targets of exploration and development, and are rapidly becoming important energy resources that will continue to be developed in the future.

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Spatiotemporal evolution of urban air quality and socioeconomic driving forces in China

Air pollution is a serious problem brought by the rapid urbanization and economic development in China, imposing great challenges and threats to population health and the sustainability of the society. Based on the real-time air quality monitoring data obtained for each Chinese city from 2013 to 2014, the spatiotemporal characteristics of air pollution are analyzed using various exploratory spatial data analysis tools. With spatial econometric models, this paper further quantifies the influences of socioeconomic factors on air quality at both the national and regional scales. The results are as follows: (1) From 2013 to 2014, the percentage of days compliance of urban air quality increased but air pollution deteriorated and the worsening situation in regions with poor air quality became more obvious. (2) Changes of air quality show a clear temporal coupling with regional socioeconomic activities, basically “relatively poor at daytime and relatively good at night”. (3) Urban air pollution shows a spatial pattern of “heavy in the east and light in the west, and heavy in the north and light in the south”. (4) The overall extent and distribution of regional urban air pollution have clearly different characteristics. The formation and evolution of regional air pollution can be basically induced as “the pollution of key cities is aggravated—pollution of those cities spreads—regional overall pollution is aggravated—the key cities lead in pollution governance—regional pollution joint prevention and control is implemented—regional overall pollution is reduced”. (5) At the national level, energy consumption, industrialization and technological progress are the major factors in the worsening of urban air quality, economic development is a significant driver for the improvement of that quality. (6) Influenced by resources, environment and the development stage, the socioeconomic factors had strongly variable impacts on air quality, in both direction and intensity in different regions. Based on the conclusion, the regional differentiation and development idea of the relationship between economic development and environmental changes in China are discussed.     

Oil resources for the next century: What's ahead?

Proven reserves of liquid hydrocarbons are now assessed at between 950 and 1,000 billion barrels, depending on the source. Their life expectancy at the current rate of world production is about 41 to 45 years. This lifetime is much longer than what was predicted in both 1970 and 1980. However, this wealth of resources does not necessarily mean that the security of oil supplies is guaranteed for all countries. Oil reserves are unequally distributed from a geopolitical standpoint. Reserves and output are mainly due to big fields (with more than 500 million barrels of initial reserves).Though oil supplies seem to be ensured for the coming 30 to 40 years, what does the picture look like beyond 2020–20307 The increased lifetime of proven oil reserves has been apparent only in the last 10 to 20 years. The considerable increase in proven oil reserves reported after 1986 is, in fact, mainly due to revisions and extensions, rather than to new sources of oil: conventional oil (with the price per barrel of oil on the order of $20 and recovery rate around 30 percent) remaining to be discovered today; oil resources stemming from an improvement in recovery rate; oil resources resulting from exploitation of new zones, such as deep sea zones; and unconventional types of oil, such as extra-heavy crudes, tar sands, shale oils, and liquid hydrocarbons from chemical-enhanced oil recovery methods.     

Unconventional Energy Resources: 2013 Review

This report contains nine unconventional energy resource commodity summaries and an analysis of energy economics prepared by committees of the Energy Minerals Division of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists. Unconventional energy resources, as used in this report, are those energy resources that do not occur in discrete oil or gas reservoirs held in structural or stratigraphic traps in sedimentary basins. These resources include coal, coalbed methane, gas hydrates, tight-gas sands, gas shale and shale oil, geothermal resources, oil sands, oil shale, and U and Th resources and associated rare earth elements of industrial interest. Current U.S. and global research and development activities are summarized for each unconventional energy commodity in the topical sections of this report.     

AD HOC REGIONALISM IN RURAL DEVELOPMENT*

Government units such as counties and cities have long been the basis for economic development, service delivery, and problem solving in rural America, but they are increasingly inappropriate, because many of them are too small to reach the critical mass and because rural issues often transcend arbitrarily set political boundaries. To overcome the resultant adverse effects, many rural communities have been rethinking their development strategies and actively forging regional partnerships. Ad hoc regionalism is a politically feasible and effective way for rural communities to collaborate in these initiatives. The exact issues that spark such collaboration may vary from place to place, but they are all grassroots, voluntary regional governance frameworks or innovations. They allow rural communities to pool their resources and reach the critical mass necessary to tackle a variety of regional issues and take advantage of new economic development opportunities without replacing or threatening existing government units. The two case studies discussed in this article—the western Kansas Rural Economic Development Alliance and the San Juan Forum in the Four Corners region of the southwestern United States—show that ad hoc regionalism offers several advantages over rural communities working independently but that challenges in implementing it exist.     

PLACE MAKING,HAZARDOUS WASTE,AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF TOOELE COUNTY,UTAH*

ABSTRACT. Declining populations, aging inhabitants and infrastructure, limited economic opportunities, and under‐ or unappreciated natural environments characterize a number of rural communities in the western United States. Faced with the challenges of providing for their residents, some of these communities have chosen to permit undesirable land‐use activities, including the disposal of hazardous or nuclear waste. Central to the development of such sites is how a place is perceived and portrayed. Our purpose in this article is to examine how a dominant perception and portrayal of one such place—Tooele County, Utah—was created and used to facilitate the development of hazardous‐waste‐disposal sites. We use the geographical concept of “place” to illustrate how meanings and values are attached to a region in order to justify its becoming what it is and how such views persist.     

世界资源贸易格局与中国利用国外资源的环境分析

从总体上看，发达国家在世界资源贸易格局中占据主导地位。在农产品出口贸易方面，发达国家以粮食为主，发展中国家以经济作物出口为主；在矿产品贸易方面，石油是最重要的贸易产品；发达国家在非矿物原料上对发展中国家的依赖在减少。从中国利用国外资源的环境来看，经济环境相对较好，政治军事环境比较复杂。     

Economic‐Development Stakeholder Perspectives on Boomtown Dynamics in the Eagle Ford Shale,Texas

Unconventional oil and gas production in the United States reversed a decades‐old trend of rising oil imports, provided an argument for lifting the U.S. crude oil export ban and motivated the development of domestic natural gas export facilities. But the most visible impact of unconventional‐hydrocarbon extraction is the creation of boomtowns in rural regions. Despite widespread media coverage, scholarly analysis of boomtowns is restricted to regional econometric studies with little attention to how economic stakeholders understand and respond to booming economies. Here we analyze interviews with key economic stakeholders in the Eagle Ford Shale in Texas. Respondents consider their community's economic success relative to the price of oil and indicate concerns about the deterioration of roads, high housing demand, and skyrocketing wages. We also re‐examine John Gilmore's foundational work on boomtowns in the 1970s in the context of contemporary unconventional extraction.     

哈萨克斯坦水环境与水资源现状及问题分析

水是最重要的自然资源之一,水资源的可利用量取决于自然条件和人为因素两个方面。亚洲中部干旱区水资源有限,近年来河湖萎缩、生态环境系统退化,已成为区域社会经济持续发展的瓶颈。以丝绸之路经济带沿线国家之一哈萨克斯坦内按照水资源需求程度划分的八大流域作为研究区,在进行各个流域水质及水资源现状特征分析的基础上,通过径流占比、人为影响程度以及水资源需求程度等3项指标分别对八大流域水资源进行综合评估,并采用可变模糊优选模型评价哈萨克斯坦境内不同流域人类活动对水资源的影响程度,对八大流域进行轻微、中等和显著等3个影响程度的等级划分。结果表明：人类活动对锡尔河-咸海及伊希姆河流域水资源以及水环境的影响程度处于显著水平,而且前者流域水质污染问题较为严重;乌拉尔河-里海流域的地表径流占比最高,但该区域因大量油气资源开发对水资源需求量非常高,处于危险等级。巴尔喀什湖-阿拉湖流域的用水需求处于临界程度,属于第三类（处于危重程度）。额尔齐斯河流域水储量最为丰富,但流域中游哈萨克斯坦境内矿产开发引起的水质污染严重。另外,近几十年来哈萨克斯坦地表径流变化分析表明,1965年以来年总径流量减少39.4 km³,其中跨境径流量减少23 km³,境内径流减少16.5 km³。近年虽然灌溉面积和工业活动减少,年均耗水量也有所减少,但是人口增长导致公共服务和生活等方面耗水量增加2.58 km³,区域水资源供需矛盾日益凸显。因此,需要综合考虑各国利益和整个区域社会经济与生态环境的和谐可持续发展,共同商定水资源开发利用及保护的措施。     

“The Community Helped Me:” Community Cohesion and Environmental Concerns in Personal Assessments of Post-Disaster Recovery

Abstract

This study investigates long-term appraisals of community recovery after a major environmental disaster. Specifically, we conducted a survey of 351 individuals living in coastal counties in Alabama and Florida on the five-year anniversary of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Using mixed methods that combined content analysis and ordinary least squares regression, we find that residents who believe they live in a community where neighbors help each other are more likely to see their communities as recovering. Conversely, reporting major effects from environmental problems, like lost fishing income, reduces perceptions of community recovery. Five years after the oil spill a majority of respondents saw little economic recovery and almost half perceived low environmental recovery. This reflects the importance of the environment to the long-term health and success of areas dependent on natural resources. It also suggests the need for directing funding toward community-level programs and preserving shared natural resources post-disaster.     

资源环境承载力与中国经济发展可持续性模拟

1978年改革开放以来中国经济创造了长期高速增长的奇迹,但人和自然关系出现严重不协调,突出表现为资源的过度消耗与环境污染的加剧。与此同时,为实现2050年成为现代化强国的发展目标,中国亟需持续发展。为此,中国学者和政府需着力解决问题是,在未来中长期内,中国应当期望多高的经济增长率及其对应的发展模式或调控手段?本文对影响乃至决定国民经济增长的资源环境支撑系统以及建立在这之上的发展模式进行分析,揭示经济增长及发展模式与支撑系统之间的耦合关系,模拟发展与环境之间相互作用过程,阐释未来经济增长可能的方案及其对资源环境支撑系统（主要因素）的要求,对中国资源环境状态和发展状态做出预警。模拟结果显示,为实现2050年进入发达国家行列并保持良好生态环境的发展目标,在考虑技术进步会改善资源利用效率和污染排放的前提下,中国采取3.8%~6.3%的经增速较为适宜。在该区间内,3.8%~4.4%是较为安全的发展速度,而4.4%~6.3%的发展速度则要求较高的技术进步。本文所构建的系统动力学模型可用于对比分析不同发展情景,选择更优发展方案,为实现国家的可持续发展提供决策支持。本研究也是对“未来地球”框架文件的响应,从人口和产业发展速度方面发展了资源环境承载力的理论体系,具有重要理论探索意义和应用价值。     

东非油气资源开发的历史透视与现状解析

东非油气资源开发始于一战前,二战后出现第一个勘探高峰期。随着冷战结束,东非油气资源开发的力度不断加大,国际能源公司纷纷入驻。在中小型能源公司的积极开拓下,于2006年以后相继取得重大勘探成果。东非油气资源已呈现出分布广、储量大的特点,并吸引一批国际大型能源公司的投资,加快了能源产业的发展,推动了能源立法的建设。随着东非在全球能源版图中地位的凸显,地区外大国在该地区的博弈也日趋激烈。东非各国则获得发展的新机遇,并将推进地区一体化进程。然而,若东非各国不能妥善处理政府能力问题、腐败问题、经济结构问题、利益分配问题、恐怖主义问题等,将有可能陷入"资源诅咒"的陷阱中。     

简论以色列的区域环境合作开发战略

随着经济发展和人口的增加,环境与资源问题在中东国家日益普遍和突出。环境问题的根源及其影响超越了国界,环境问题也必须国际合作才能解决,这对以色列所在的东地中海地区特别重要。东地中海国家开展环境治理和管理的合作不但符合该地区社会经济的可持续发展要求,也是促进和巩固中东政治和平的重要手段。本文分析了以色列政府1996年1月提出的《区域环境合作和发展选择》文件的基本框架和内容,指出：这个规划对区域经济合作具有宏观指导意义和操作意义,更是新时期以色列抢占中东经济高地的一个前瞻性战略,将对中东的政治经济新格局产生深远的影响。     

尼日尔河三角洲油气工业生产与布局

尼日尔河三角洲油气工业地带,既是非洲最主要的两大油气工业地带之一,也是世界油气工业地带的重要组成部分。尼日尔河三角洲不仅油气资源极为丰富,而且与世界其他地区相比,其油气资源具有独特优势和特点。在分析尼日尔河三角洲油气资源的分布及生产布局特点的基础上,进一步分析其油气炼化工业的发展与布局,对进一步加强中-尼(尼日利亚)油气合作具有重要意义。     

Life in the Goldilocks Zone: Perceptions of Place Disruption on the Periphery of the Bakken Shale

Community impacts from oil development in the Bakken Shale, located in the north central region of the United States, have been well reported in the press, including highly publicized accounts of social disruption. Less examined are communities on the periphery of such development, which experience related impacts unique to their location. Twenty-eight long-time residents from three Bakken periphery communities were interviewed to evaluate social and environmental impact perceptions, including perceived risks of place disruption. Findings suggest that whereas place meanings and identities were disrupted by the oil boom in Bakken core communities, they remain intact in these periphery communities. Findings further suggest periphery residents view their proximal location to the Bakken region as a social and economic “Goldilocks Zone:” close enough to benefit from spillover economic impacts, yet far enough away to avoid serious negative social impacts. This research extends understanding of place disruption and development impacts in energy periphery communities.