空间微观模拟方法及在城市研究中的应用

基于活动主体的城市系统微观模拟可能在未来城市研究中发挥重要作用,但其通常受到微观个体数据稀缺的限制。空间微观模拟方法（spatial microsimulation）主要基于家庭、个人等微观分析单元,通过整合不同层面的数据源,如宏观汇总层面的人口普查统计表以及微观层面的家庭活动日志调查等,合成大样本微观个体数据集,可以在精细化空间尺度上对微观个体行为进行模拟研究。该方法在城市系统微观模拟、空间分析以及政策评估等方面具有一定优势,在西方国家城市研究中的应用逐渐增多,但在国内较为缺乏。本文尝试对空间微观模拟方法的起源、三种核心算法,包括条件概率（conditional probability） 、确定性加权（deterministic reweighting）以及模拟退火（simulated annealing）进行介绍,并从国际层面综述该方法在城市研究,如收入与贫困、交通出行、健康等领域中的应用,为我国相关研究的开展提供借鉴。     

基于自然主控因子和道路可达性的广东省乡村聚落空间分布特征及影响因素

以遥感图像分类解译数据为基础,利用核密度、道路交通可达性阻力值、Logistic回归模型,定量识别了1990-2013年的广东省全域范围内的乡村聚落空间分布特征及现状、乡村聚落空间分布的主导影响因素,并讨论归纳了乡村聚落演变及其机制研究的内容框架。结果表明：① 广东省乡村聚落空间分布具有低海拔、低坡度、邻河流、邻乡镇的空间指向性。呈现出“平原稠密,山区稀疏”的空间分布格局,形成了粤东潮汕平原和粤西湛江平原台地两大高密度核心区域,珠江三角洲外围山区的乡村聚落呈现出邻近于河流谷地和沿交通线串珠式布局特征。② 乡村聚落除具有邻近开放型道路空间指向性外,更为重要体现为到乡镇的道路交通可达性对乡村聚落空间分布影响最大,镇—村连接的交通网络完善度对乡村转型发展的意义重大,全面提升乡镇的综合生产和服务能力将是优化农村地区村镇体系的核心。③ 高程和坡度是影响乡村聚落的分布、规模、形态的两个重要的基础性影响因素。自然地理本底属性是村庄优化布局与空间重构规划建设考虑的第一要素。④ 在“互联网+”时代背景下,重构农村地区市场网络体系对接于全球市场网络体系,建构以乡镇为核心的乡村生活服务圈,有待进一步探寻“三生空间”的重构和社会文化传承与保护的理论与实践的研究。同时深化乡村聚落形态演化、乡村空间生产、乡村社会网络、群体行为、社会自治、社会文化领域等的研究将是全球化背景下中国乡村空间重构研究的核心领域。     

乡村空间辨析

伴随着城镇化、信息化、全球化等多种内外因素的交互作用,中国的乡村正经历着社会经济形态重组、地域功能提升等一系列转型与重构的过程,乡村地域面临着前所未有的机遇与挑战,而“乡村振兴战略”的提出也给乡村发展及乡村地理学的研究提出了新要求,全面系统地认识乡村空间系统,准确把握乡村空间是开展进一步研究的必要前提。本文在系统梳理国内外对乡村空间的认知与发展基础上,指出国内乡村地理学在乡村社会—文化空间研究上的不足。本文以人地关系地域系统为理论基础,尝试建构了由“物质空间—社会空间—文化空间”组成的乡村空间系统,以期为全面认识日益复杂的乡村地域提供理论指导。     

Measuring Potential Access to Primary Healthcare Services: The Influence of Alternative Spatial Representations of Population

Spatial accessibility measures are an important policy tool for managing healthcare provision and reducing health inequality. The two‐step floating catchment area technique, in common with many alternative methodologies, requires that demand‐side population be estimated using spatial interpolation techniques. This article studies the implications of adopting differing spatial representations of population on healthcare accessibility modeling outcomes. Results indicate that a dasymetric model yields lower accessibility scores than a standard pro rata model. More important, the difference is spatially disproportionate, suggesting that the degree of disadvantage experienced in rural areas may be greater than has previously been recognized.     

Spatial Accessibility to Health Care Facilities in Suhum District,Ghana

To improve geographical accessibility to health facilities in rural Ghana, it has been recommended that additional health facilities be built. Resource constraints make this recommendation infeasible. Using location-allocation models, this paper demonstrates that in the Suhum District of Ghana substantial improvements in accessibility can be achieved with better locational choices and without additional facilities. Also, additional facilities will produce little improvement in accessibility if location is not explicitly considered. The paper demonstrates the utility of location-allocation models for improving accessibility to services in the Third World.     

广东省乡村聚落空间分布的影响机制及研究内容框架展望（英文）

Based on land use classification data of remote sensing images, using kernel density, the minimal cumulative resistance model of road traffic accessibility, and a logistic regression model, the characteristics of the spatial pattern and the main factors influencing it were quantitatively examined in Guangdong Province from 1990 to 2013. The framework of the research concerning rural settlement evolution and its effect mechanisms were also discussed and generalized for the future. The results are as follows:(1) The spatial distribution of rural settlements showed spatial directivity of low altitude, low slope, and adjacent to rivers, as well as to villages and towns; thus a special pattern was formed, which was dense on the plains, sparse in mountainous areas, and included two core high density regions of rural settlements in the Chaoshan plain in the east and the Zhanjiang plain tableland region in the west. The spatial distribution of rural settlements was located along the rivers, valleys, and roads with traffic in the mountainous regions surrounding the Pearl River Delta region.(2) In addition to the spatial orientation of the open road, it was important to show that the accessibility of road traffic to the township has had the greatest influence on the spatial distribution of the rural settlements. The connected transport network between towns and villages is significant for rural transformation as a comprehensive increase in township production and service capacity will be the key to optimizing the town-village system in rural areas.(3) Elevation and slope were two basic but influential factors that have affected the distribution, scale, and form of rural settlements. The attributes of the physical geography are the first elements in optimizing village layout and planning spatial reconstruction.(4) In the current Internet and social media era, the reconstruction of market network system orders connects with the global market network system in rural areas. The rural life service circle will be constructed with the township at its core to explore the theory and practice of spatial reconstruction, including its production, life and ecology, and socio-cultural heritage and protection. It will also allow for exploration of the rural settlements' evolution, rural spatial production, rural social networks, group behavior, social autonomy, and social and cultural fields, which will bethe core focus of China's rural spatial reconstruction research against a background of globalization.     

县域农村居民点空间格局与可达性——以江苏省射阳县为例

基于全国第二次土地利用调查数据,借助GIS 软件平台,运用核密度估算、最近邻距离指数、探索性空间数据分析、栅格成本加权距离算法等模型分析江苏省射阳县农村居民点空间格局与可达性。研究表明：在可达性成本上,镇中心半小时经济圈为5 km,成本从中心沿公路网向外围呈增长态势;村中心半小时经济圈半径为1 km,呈现“满天星”分布格局;耕作成本一般为5 min,西部村庄可达性高于东部。在点格局上,农村居民点分布集聚,呈现“西密东疏”的空间格局特征。在规模空间格局上,农村居民点规模普遍较小,具有“太极”状结构。在可达性空间格局上,镇中心平均可达性呈现“双管”结构,高值区在射阳县西部和中部形成条带状分布;村中心平均可达性空间上类似“树枝”结构,呈现中西部高值集聚和东部低值连片分布的格局;耕作平均可达性具有南部高值、东部低值连片和中部高值集聚特征。空间可达性可划分为可达性高值区、可达性中值区和可达性低值区三级,射阳县可达性以中值为主,具有圈层状和“公路沿线”布局特征。     

Rural settlement spatial patterns and effects: Road traffic accessibility and geographic factors in Guangdong Province,China

Journal of Geographical Sciences - Based on land use classification data of remote sensing images, using kernel density, the minimal cumulative resistance model of road traffic accessibility, and a...     

Accessibility to basic services in one of the most sparsely populated areas in Europe: the province of Teruel (Spain)

This paper analyses local differences in access to basic health services in the province of Teruel (Spain), one of the most sparsely populated areas in Europe. The demographic decline and the concentration of the remaining population in the main settlements has meant that there is a high degree of spatial fit of supply and demand and average aggregate accessibility is good. However, access costs are high for the scarce and aged population resident in the most remote villages and hamlets scattered over an extensive and tacitly ignored territory. In such circumstances the demands of the inhabitants for more attention from the public authorities, expressed through the 'Teruel Exists' movement, can be readily understood.     

Measuring the accessibility of different household income groups to basic community services in upland Misamis Oriental,Northern Mindanao,Philippines

Improving household accessibility to basic community services can help reduce poverty in upland areas. In this study, spatial analysis with GIS was used to measure the accessibility of different household income groups to community services in the landlocked upland municipality Claveria in Northern Mindanao, the Philippines. Important community services were identified through villagers' participation in a matrix‐scoring activity. Travel information was derived from key informant interviews while the geographical coordinates of sample households and important services were collected using GPS receivers. The Flowmap GIS software (version 7.2) was used to compute accessibility to services along the road network by habal‐habal (two‐wheel motorcycle). Outcomes from the participatory data gathering activities revealed that agricultural, educational and health facilities, as well as government services are important to the community to achieve sustainable livelihoods. Because local people perceive accessibility in terms of monetary costs, rather than distance, road distance measurements were converted into fare costs. Results of the accessibility analysis show that higher‐income household groups generally incur lower mean one‐way travel costs to reach important community services than poorer households. However, almost all households spend more than the daily per capita poverty threshold for the province to reach basic community services. A scenario to improve accessibility to services in the study area was investigated to emphasize the potential of GIS‐based accessibility analysis in rural service planning.     

基于改进3SFCA的乡村地区公共医疗设施空间可达性与公平性评价——以海口市为例

公共医疗设施配置合理与否影响城乡居民健康和福祉,科学客观测算乡村地区公共医疗设施公平可达性具有重要意义。乡村地区人口规模较小且分散居住,居民就医行为有别于城市居民,2SFCA或3SFCA方法难以客观揭示乡村地区人口分布规律和就医出行特征,导致评估乡村地区医疗设施可达性时效果不佳。论文根据海口市乡村居民就医出行规律选择距离衰减函数,格网化研究区形成人口需求点,考虑不同等级医疗机构对居民就医的吸引,改进了3SFCA算法,建立乡村地区公共医疗设施可达性与空间公平性评估方法体系,并以海口市为案例进行实证分析。结果表明：① 基于改进3SFCA法建立的可达性评价模型可以获得更精准客观的评价结果;② 海口市乡村地区公共医疗设施可达性整体较差且空间分异明显,高值区分布在东部的三江、云龙及甲子镇,低值区主要集中在研究区西部;③ 海口市乡村地区公共医疗设施配置的公平性不佳,少量的高和较高公平等级区域均位于中低人口密度区,而低和极低公平等级区域覆盖了广大的高人口密度区,医疗资源配置的公平性亟需改善。     

Community transport, social capital and social exclusion in rural areas

The concept of social capital has been used by numerous authors to investigate various topics. As yet, however, little attention has been paid to its relationship with mobility and social exclusion. Those findings which have been published suggest that the maintenance of social capital and associated networks within and between communities largely depends on mobility, but that local social networks are being undermined as a result of growing car ownership and use. This paper draws on the results of recent rural transport research to suggest that, at the same time, strong local social capital appears important in conferring mobility on certain social groups, especially those without access to a car. In the context of community transport, our analysis uses a geographic framework to attempt to explore these positions and reviews arising policy and research implications.     

A comparative analysis of accessibility measures by the two-step floating catchment area (2SFCA) method

The recent decade has witnessed a new wave of development in the place-based accessibility theory, revolving around the two-step floating catchment area (2SFCA) method. The 2SFCA method, initially serving to evaluate the spatial inequity of health care services, has been further applied to other urban planning and facility access issues. Among these applications, different distance decay functions have been incorporated in the thread of model development, but their applicability and limitations have not been thoroughly examined. To this end, the paper has employed a place-based accessibility framework to compare the performance of twenty-four 2SFCA models in a comprehensive manner. Two important conclusions are drawn from this analysis: on a small analysis scale (e.g., community level), the catchment size is the most critical model component; on a large analysis scale (e.g., statewide), the distance decay function is of elevated importance. In sum, this comparative analysis provides the theoretical support necessary to the choice of the catchment size and the distance decay function in the 2SFCA method. Justification of model parameters through empirical evidence (e.g., field surveys about local travel activities) and model validation through sensitivity analysis are needed in future 2SFCA applications for various urban planning, service delivery, and spatial equity scenarios.     

中国乡村转型重构研究进展与展望——逻辑主线与内容框架

伴随快速城镇化,乡村地域正经历着经济社会发展方式转变为主导的人文过程,前瞻性地研究乡村转型发展过程格局、演进机理及空间优化重组研究意义重大。本文系统梳理乡村发展转型内涵、过程格局、驱动机制、类型模式、乡村空间重构、农村发展理论及农村空心化等系列成果研究进展,并进行简要研究评述。在此基础上,对中国乡村发展转型与重构的研究核心内容和逻辑主线加以凝练总结。未来乡村发展转型与重构研究应以人地关系地域系统理论为指导,以揭示不同地域类型区的乡村转型发展过程及演进机制为核心,以建构乡村空间优化重组理论和探究模式途径为目标,综合集成遥感与GIS、抽样调查和模型方法,重点研究不同典型地域的乡村转型发展的多尺度过程规律、地域类型、动力机制,深化乡村空间体系演化规律和优化重组的内外机制,及乡村社会文化网络、技术制度转型重组等方面的研究,进行乡村多维空间重组的情景模拟。结合典型案例实证研究,解构乡村多维空间重构理论与模式的成长机制与区域主导地理要素;比较分析典型模式的演化过程和要素互馈作用机制;探寻推进乡村良性转型发展及空间优化重组的地域模式和科学途径。     

苏北地区乡村聚落的空间格局

基于苏北地区2008年卫星遥感影像,通过运用空间插值、空间关联指数、空间变差函数等空间测度模型,深入分析了苏北地区乡村聚落的空间格局特征。结果表明:在空间分布上,苏北地区乡村聚落具有"南密北疏"的特征;在规模分布上,苏北地区乡村聚落表现出很强的空间自相关性,并出现高值簇的空间集聚,其主要集中于徐州、连云港和宿迁等地,总体上呈现"南低北高"的空间分布特征;在形态分布上,苏北地区乡村聚落形态的空间分布格局具有较好的连续性和稳定性。空间分异格局中的随机成份较低,而由空间自相关引起的结构化分异则较为显著。从不同方向来看,苏北地区乡村聚落形态分布表现出一定的各向异性,其中东南-西北方向的乡村聚落形态呈现出明显的阶梯状分布特征,自东南向西北,聚落形态具体表现为由带状、长矩形、矩形到方形或不规则团块状的渐进性演变。总体来看,苏北地区乡村聚落的空间格局具有明显的空间依赖性。     

The enigma of social sustainability in rural Australia

While much previous work has been done on the general concept of ecological sustainability, there is relatively little that examines the likely spatial aspects of a socially sustainable rural system. Having defined essential concepts, this study first identifies major current forces for rural change likely to influence any future sustainable system. It goes on to specify those features of modern rural social formations which I believe deserve retention. Finally, some essential requirements for a socially sustainable system are established.     

A three-step floating catchment area method for analyzing spatial access to health services

Gravity-based spatial access models have been widely used to estimate spatial access to healthcare services in an attempt to capture the interaction of various factors. However, these models are inadequate in informing health resource allocation work due to their inappropriate assumption of healthcare demand. For the purpose of effective healthcare resource planning, this article proposes a three-step floating catchment area (3SFCA) method to minimize the healthcare-demand overestimation problem. Specifically, a spatial impedance-based competition scheme is incorporated into the enhanced two-step floating catchment area (E2SFCA) method to account for a reasonable model of healthcare supply and demand. A case study of spatial access to primary care physicians along the Austin–San Antonio corridor area in central Texas showed that the proposed method effectively minimizes the overestimation of healthcare demand and reflects a more balanced geographic pattern of spatial access than E2SFCA. In addition, by using an adjusted spatial access index, the 3SFCA method indicates strong potential for identifying health professional shortage areas. The study concludes that 3SFCA is a promising method to provide health professionals and decision makers with useful healthcare accessibility information.     

干旱区绿洲农村居民点景观格局演变及机制分析

基于1987年、2002年、2013年三期Landsat TM、ETM+、OLI遥感影像提取研究区农村居民点时空分布信息,利用GIS空间分析、景观指数分析及多元线性回归分析干旱区绿洲农村居民点景观演化特征及驱动机制。研究表明：① 农村居民点集中分布在绿洲内部平原区,其中城市周边及沿河道、道路是居民点空间聚集较明显的区域。② 1987-2013年农村居民点面积增长较形状变化更为显著。新建居民点和旧居民点边界扩张是导致研究区农村居民点面积显著增长主要原因,且在不同时空区域表现出不同的增长方式;居民点形状以矩形和近圆形居多,条带型较少。③ 通过对居民点景观演变机制进行分析,发现城市辐射距离、水源地远近及距离道路远近是影响农村居民点景观变化的首要因素,其次是人口规模,最后才是区域经济的发展。     

巩义市农村居民点空间格局演变及其影响因素

综合运用GIS 技术、景观指数定量分析方法以及空间统计方法,分析河南省巩义市1990-2010 年农村居民点规模结构、空间分布、形态结构的演变特征,探索地形因素、区位因素以及社会经济因素对农村居民点发展变化的影响。结果表明：在快速城镇化背景下,巩义市农村居民点规模扩张明显,集约用地程度较低;居民点斑块形态趋于规则,规划管理效果已开始有初步体现;聚落斑块空间分布聚集特征明显,呈现大斑块低密度分布与小斑块高密度分布格局;但巩义市农村聚落近20 年来整体空间格局变化不大,只是局部集中趋势进一步增加,不仅在平原与丘陵地区具有集中趋势,在其之外的经济快速发展地区的集中趋势亦较为明显。居住空间格局变化与自然条件有关,但在时间与空间的微观层面上区位条件、社会经济因素具有更大的影响。本文对农村居民点的空间布局调整具有一定的政策指导意义。