Long term variations in the mesospheric mean flow observed at Grahamstown (South Africa) and Adelaide (Australia)

The seasonal and interannual behaviour of monthly mean winds at a height of 90 km recorded at Grahamstown (33.3°S, 26.5°E) and Adelaide (34.5°S, 138.5°E) between 1987 and 1994 are compared. The zonal wind is found to be consistently stronger at Grahamstown and is always eastward, whereas at Adelaide it sometimes reverses. Maxima tend to occur near the solstices, the primary maximum during summer at Grahamstown, in agreement with satellite results, and during winter at Adelaide. The meridional wind also tends to be stronger at Grahamstown, but at both stations is predominantly northward with a maximum in summer and generally not as strong as the zonal component. This seasonal behaviour is reasonably well understood in terms of the interaction of the mean flow with gravity waves propagating up from below, with coriolis forces also playing an important role in the case of the meridional wind. Satellite observations do not generally support the idea that longitudinal differences between the stations could be attributed to the presence of a tropospheric/stratospheric stationary wave. It is suggested that these differences are more probably associated with local effects. Interannual zonal wind patterns at the two sites are similar over the summer months but are less well correlated during the rest of the year. The underlying causes of this variability are not well understood but are most probably global in nature, at least during the summer.     

Global anomalies of the main geomagnetic field and the dynamic model of their sources

The model of the main geomagnetic field sources, including 12 more dipoles in addition to the main dipole, is presented. The source parameters have been determined for the 100-year-long period at an interval of 5 years. The problem is solved using the iteration method proposed and developed by the authors. Six more sources have been included in the iteration process at its current step. This made it possible to substantially smooth the time variations in the dipole parameters obtained previously and, on the other hand, to describe all global anomalies of the main geomagnetic field using this model. A change in the parameter values can be approximated by rather smooth functions describing specific features of development of the sources operating for 20–30 years. However, the short duration of the obtained series (21 points) makes the problem of prediction substantially more difficult. The parameters of 13 dipoles, extrapolated for 2000 using the linear prediction filter, are in good agreement only with the general development of the sources.     

Review Paper: Historical development of the total normalized gradient method in profile gravity field interpretation

In the Russian school, the total normalized gradient method belongs to the most wide-spread of direct interpretation methods for potential field data. This method was also used and partly developed by many experts from abroad. The main advantage of the total normalized gradient method is its relative independence of parameters such as the expected differential density of interpreted structures. The method is built from a construction of a specially transformed field (total normalized gradient) on a section crossing the potential field sources. The special properties of this transformed field allow it to be used to detect the source positions. From the 1960s, the mathematical basis of the method underwent enormous development and several modifications of the method have been elaborated. The total normalized gradient operator itself represents a relatively complicated, non-linear band-pass filter in the spectral domain. The properties of this operator can be handled by means of several parameters that act to separate the information about field sources at different depth levels. In this contribution, we describe the development of the method from its very beginning (based mostly on qualitative interpretation of simple total normalized gradient sections) through to more recent numerical improvements to the method. These improvements include the quasi-singular points method, which refines the filter properties of the total normalized gradient operator and defines an objective criteria (so called criterion ‘α’ and ‘Г') for the definition of source depths in the section. We end by describing possibilities for further development of the method in the future.     

Magnetic mineralogy and grain-size dependence of hysteresis parameters of single spherules from industrial waste products

The use of magnetic susceptibility as a proxy for the relative degree of industrial pollution of soils and sediments is only qualitative and complications arise when unmixing the contributions from different sources. Detailed characterization of anthropogenic magnetic phases is needed in order to discriminate the input from different sources. The present study investigates magnetic fractions from fly ashes from different thermoelectric power plants and lagooned ash from metal works in Bulgaria, to further our knowledge of potential sources. Thermomagnetic analysis of saturation magnetization (M_s) and magnetic susceptibility (K) revealed a low-substituted magnetite-like phase in power-plant fly ashes and magnetite/maghemite phases in lagooned ash. Magnetic hysteresis measurements on single spherules from the wastes are combined with subsequent SEM/EDX examination of the same grains, allowing for the grain size dependence of the hysteresis parameters to be directly obtained for the studied anthropogenic phases. The results suggest that the structure-sensitive magnetic parameters for the lagooned ash show stronger size dependence compared to the published data for synthetic crushed magnetites, which is due to the complex internal structure and stress level in the anthropogenic phases formed under fast cooling conditions. Moreover, the Day plot for the studied single grains shows the presence of different correlation lines for fly ashes and the lagooned ash, i.e. it discriminates between the sources.     

Analysis of Signals from an Unique Ground-Truth Infrasound Source Observed at IMS Station IS26 in Southern Germany

Quantitative modeling of infrasound signals and development and verification of the corresponding atmospheric propagation models requires the use of well-calibrated sources. Numerous sources have been detected by the currently installed network of about 40 of the final 60 IMS infrasound stations. Besides non-nuclear explosions such as mining and quarry blasts and atmospheric phenomena like auroras, these sources include meteorites, volcanic eruptions and supersonic aircraft including re-entering spacecraft and rocket launches. All these sources of infrasound have one feature in common, in that their source parameters are not precisely known and the quantitative interpretation of the corresponding signals is therefore somewhat ambiguous. A source considered well-calibrated has been identified producing repeated infrasound signals at the IMS infrasound station IS26 in the Bavarian forest. The source results from propulsion tests of the ARIANE-5 rocket’s main engine at a testing facility near Heilbronn, southern Germany. The test facility is at a range of 320 km and a backazimuth of ~280° from IS26. Ground-truth information was obtained for nearly 100 tests conducted in a 5-year period. Review of the available data for IS26 revealed that at least 28 of these tests show signals above the background noise level. These signals are verified based on the consistency of various signal parameters, e.g., arrival times, durations, and estimates of propagation characteristics (backazimuth, apparent velocity). Signal levels observed are a factor of 2–8 above the noise and reach values of up to 250 mPa for peak amplitudes, and a factor of 2–3 less for RMS measurements. Furthermore, only tests conducted during the months from October to April produce observable signals, indicating a significant change in infrasound propagation conditions between summer and winter months.     

A Hierarchical Bayesian Model Averaging Framework for Groundwater Prediction under Uncertainty

Groundwater prediction models are subjected to various sources of uncertainty. This study introduces a hierarchical Bayesian model averaging (HBMA) method to segregate and prioritize sources of uncertainty in a hierarchical structure and conduct BMA for concentration prediction. A BMA tree of models is developed to understand the impact of individual sources of uncertainty and uncertainty propagation to model predictions. HBMA evaluates the relative importance of different modeling propositions at each level in the BMA tree of model weights. The HBMA method is applied to chloride concentration prediction for the “1,500‐foot” sand of the Baton Rouge area, Louisiana from 2005 to 2029. The groundwater head data from 1990 to 2004 is used for model calibration. Four sources of uncertainty are considered and resulted in 180 flow and transport models for concentration prediction. The results show that prediction variances of concentration from uncertain model elements are much higher than the prediction variance from uncertain model parameters. The HBMA method is able to quantify the contributions of individual sources of uncertainty to the total uncertainty.     

Modeling the Usefulness of Spatial Correlation Analysis on Karst Systems

Cross-correlation analyses on field data collected in karst aquifer systems can be used to develop a conceptual understanding of the aquifer. This includes the use of many data sets from the same aquifer to develop an understanding of how properties vary spatially. We focus on a method for characterizing the distribution of recharge, which is becoming increasingly important in regions where urban development encroaches on these important sources of water. Spatially varying precipitation data and cross-correlation analysis provide a means of spatially characterizing recharge locations on a karst aquifer. Our work expands on the numerical experiments conducted by Padilla and Pulido-Bosch (1995) using the numerical ground water model MODFLOW to introduce spatially varying parameters. The numerical experiments include conduit-controlled, matrix-controlled, and mixed karst systems with more than one precipitation time series input. The results show that spatially varying parameters can be inferred based on the cross-correlation of precipitation data and spring discharge. Simulations were completed using aquifer parameters derived from studies of the Barton Springs segment of the Edwards Aquifer. The simulations indicate that spatial variability within an aquifer can be inferred using cross-correlation analysis. A field study using these methods is summarized for Barton Springs near Austin, Texas.     

Assessing uncertainties in a conceptual water balance model using Bayesian methodology / Estimation bayésienne des incertitudes au sein d’une modélisation conceptuelle de bilan hydrologique

Abstract

Abstract The aim of this study was to estimate the uncertainties in the streamflow simulated by a rainfall–runoff model. Two sources of uncertainties in hydrological modelling were considered: the uncertainties in model parameters and those in model structure. The uncertainties were calculated by Bayesian statistics, and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm was used to simulate the posterior parameter distribution. The parameter uncertainty calculated by the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm was compared to maximum likelihood estimates which assume that both the parameters and model residuals are normally distributed. The study was performed using the model WASMOD on 25 basins in central Sweden. Confidence intervals in the simulated discharge due to the parameter uncertainty and the total uncertainty were calculated. The results indicate that (a) the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and the maximum likelihood method give almost identical estimates concerning the parameter uncertainty, and (b) the uncertainties in the simulated streamflow due to the parameter uncertainty are less important than uncertainties originating from other sources for this simple model with fewer parameters.     

Deep sounding with industrial power lines in conjunction with MTS measurements

This study is devoted to the development of a method for deep tensor electromagnetic inductive sounding of the Baltic Shield lithosphere with the use of mutually orthogonal industrial power lines alternately connected to a generator of up to 100 kW in power. The first results of the sounding are obtained at separations of up to 510 km from the source. The electrical conductivity of the Baltic Shield lithosphere in the crust-mantle transition zone (depths of 20–50 km) is numerically estimated from soundings with natural and controlled sources. The perspectives of future investigations are associated with synchronous observations on a 2-D network of measuring stations. This will enable the study of the relation of deep geoelectric parameters of the lithosphere to the geological structure of the crust in terms of 3-D models.     

Development of substorm bulges during storms of different interplanetary origins

Different solar wind structures are observed: magnetic clouds (MC), recurrent streams (RS), and regions of their interaction with undisturbed solar wind (Sheath and CIR). Three of these structures, Sheath, CIR, MC, are the sources of geomagnetic storms. We have searched for distinctions in the development of substorm bulges occurring during geomagnetic storms connected with the MC, Sheath and CIR. Solar wind parameters were taken from the Wind spacecraft and the auroral bulge parameters were obtained from the Ultra Violet Imager onboard Polar spacecraft. We determined the dimensions of the auroral bulges, the poleward aurora propagation, and the onset latitude of auroral bulges. It is shown that auroral bulges “geometry” is different for the examined types of storms. In consequence, the ratio between longitudinal and latitudinal sizes is also different.     

Seismotectonic Model for 1966 Xingtai Earthquake Swarm——Nucleation of Newly Generated Fault or Friction Stick-slip Along a Preexisting Active Fault

Volume 15,Number 275INTRODUCTIONThe Xln抄al eafthquake swarrn occurred In Shulu basin In the western part ofNorih China PlainIncludes Malan M6．8 eafthquake In hn纽M Countyon Marchs,1966,Don驯aug M6．7 and M7．2earthquakes In Ningln County on March 22,1966,Balchekou M6．2 ealthquake In Shulu County onMarch 26,1966,and啊…ac M6．0 earthquake in Juhi County on March 29 1966．They aredlstnbutedin an elliptical area in N35”E direction with long axisd劝out 110 km and short axis o…     

A nonstationary runoff frequency analysis for future climate change and its uncertainties

With the intensification of climate change, its impact on runoff variations cannot be ignored. The main purpose of this study is to analyse the nonstationarity of runoff frequency adjusted for future climate change in the Luanhe River basin, China, and quantify the different sources of uncertainties in nonstationary runoff frequency analysis. The advantage of our method is the combination of generalized additive models in location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS) and downscaling models. The nonstationary GAMLSS models were established for the nonstationary frequency analysis of runoff (1961–2010) by using the observed precipitation as a covariate, which is closely related to runoff and contributes significantly to its nonstationarity. To consider the nonstationary effects of future climate change on future runoff variations, the downscaled precipitation series in the future (2011–2080) from the general circulation models (GCMs) were substituted into the selected nonstationary model to calculate the statistical parameters and runoff frequency in the future. A variance decomposition method was applied to quantify the impacts of different sources of uncertainty on the nonstationary runoff frequency analysis. The results show that the impacts of uncertainty in the GCMs, scenarios, and statistical parameters of the GAMLSS model increase with increasing runoff magnitude. In addition, GCMs and GAMLSS model parameters have the main impacts on runoff uncertainty, accounting for 14% and 83% of the total uncertainty sources, respectively. Conversely, the interactions and scenarios make limited contributions, accounting for 2% and 1%, respectively. Further analysis shows that the sources of uncertainty in the statistical parameters of the nonstationary model mainly result from the fluctuations in the precipitation sequence. This result indicates the necessity of considering the precipitation sequence as a covariate for runoff frequency analysis in the future.     

Parameters of Tsunami Source Versus Earthquake Magnitude

This study employs an empirical-analytical approach in combination with Monte-Carlo method to establish relationships between earthquake moment magnitude and upper limits of tsunami source parameters: double-amplitude of vertical bottom deformation, displaced water volume, and potential energy of initial elevation. The approach is based on the Okada solution for a finite rectangular fault and empirical scaling laws for earthquake sources. Results are compared to empirical and theoretical relationships published previously. Parameters of some recent tsunami sources, those for which USGS provides slip distribution data, are considered in light of the established relationships.     

Imaging magnetic sources using Euler's equation

The conventional Euler deconvolution method has the advantage of being independent of magnetization parameters in locating magnetic sources and estimating their corresponding depths. However, this method has the disadvantage that a suitable structural index must be chosen, which may cause spatial diffusion of the Euler solutions and bias in the estimation of depths to the magnetic sources. This problem becomes more serious when interfering anomalies exist. The interpretation of the Euler depth solutions is effectively related to the model adopted, and different models may have different structural indices. Therefore, I suggest a combined inversion for the structural index and the source location from the Euler deconvolution, by using only the derivatives of the magnetic anomalies. This approach considerably reduces the diffusion problem of the location and depth solutions. Consequently, by averaging the clustered solutions satisfying a given criterion for the solutions, we can image the depths and attributes (or types) of the causative magnetic sources. Magnetic anomalies acquired offshore northern Taiwan are used to test the applicability of the proposed method.     

Point source radiation in inhomogeneous anisotropic structures

The ray formulae for the radiation from point sources in unbounded inhomogeneous isotropic as well as anisotropic media consist of two factors. The first one depends fully on the type and orientation of the source and on the parameters of the medium at the source. We call this factor the directivity function. The second factor depends on the parameters of the medium surrounding the source and this factor is the well-known geometrical spreading. The displacement vector and the radiation pattern defined as a modulus of the amplitude of the displacement vector measured on a unit sphere around the source are both proportional to the ratio of the directivity function and the geometrical spreading.For several reasons it is desirable to separate the two mentioned factors. For example, there are methods in exploration seismics, which separate the effects of the geometrical spreading from the observed wave field (so-called true amplitude concept) and thus require the proposed separation. The separation also has an important impact on computer time savings in modeling seismic wave fields generated by point sources by the ray method. For a given position in a given model, it is sufficient to calculate the geometrical spreading only once. A multitude of various types of point sources with a different orientation can then be calculated at negligible additional cost.In numerical examples we show the effects of anisotropy on the geometrical spreading, the directivity and the radiation pattern. Ray synthetic seismograms due to a point source positioned in an anisotropic medium are also presented and compared with seismograms for an isotropic medium.     

Relation between seismic source parameters and mechanical properties of rocks: A case study

This study attempts to determine the relation between source parameters and mechanical properties of the rock matrix in which the microseismic events occur. For this purpose, accurate geological, mechanical and seismological data were acquired on a gas field experiencing induced seismicity due to its reservoir pressure drop. More than 30 deep boreholes (depth greater than 4 km) are concentrated in a 10×10×5 km volume, providing core samples for both geological and mechanical assessment. In this study, we focus on induced seismic events recorded by the local seismic network, over a three-year-long period. Characteristics of the seismic sources were obtained using spectral analysis and a dynamic model of failure. Results point out correlation between physical parameters of the seismic sources and the geomechanical properties of the rocks involved. Maximal static stress drops are found to be associated with the mechanical strength of the geological strata where the rupture occurs. The fracture size, using a circular model of failure, is also found to be dependent on the geomechanical setting. It is found that the size of the seismic fractures is dependent on the layer thickness and the prefracturation of the medium, both factors influencing the extension of preexisting discontinuities. The parameters of the seismic sources also show important changes when the gas reservoir is reached. The reservoir unit experienced a 45 MPa pore fluid pressure drop over a period of 20 years.     

Dynamic Evolution of Precursory Field and Its Relation With the Group of Strong Earthquakes

Spatial scanning is done for two regions in Chinese Mainland,where displayed a denseprecursory network during 1994～1998.The two regions are the mid-southern segment of theNorth-south seismic belt(20°～35°N,95°～110°E)and North China(36°～42°N,110°～120°E).We took 0.5°×0.5°as a spatial window with a step of 0.25°and 4 months as atemporal window with a step of 1 month.For the two regions,the anomaly density is scannedfrom 1994 and 1995 respectively in the two regions.The precursory anomalies are all fromthe Division of Seismic Trend in China and the Division of Seismic Trend in the Capital Area,Center for Analysis and Prediction,China Seismological Bureau.A seismogenic tectonicmodel is introduced to explain the scanning results.In the model,the frictional strength ofthe focal sources is distributed randomly.After the boundary plate motion rate and all othergeological parameters are given,the stress of the sources in the system changesinhomogenously due to the variation of the frictional streng     

Induction in a layered plane earth by uniform and non-uniform source fields

A review of electromagnetic induction in a multi-layered earth is built around a development of the general theory from first principles. Induction by transient and periodic fields and by dipole and electrojet sources are discussed and the method of complex images is briefly described. The review concludes with a discussion of induction by elementary harmonic sources whose non-uniformity is characterised by Price's ν-parameter and which include the uniform source field (ν=0) as a special case. The conditions under which the source may be assumed uniform for computing the surface impedance and other ratios of field components are examined.     

Interactive 3D forward modeling of total field surface and three-component borehole magnetic data for the Daye iron-ore deposit (Central China)

The ground magnetic response of deep ore bodies in the Daye iron-ore deposit is relatively weak, and sometimes concealed by the strong magnetic background of shallower sources. Apart from the low-quality ground magnetic data, another critical problem for reconstructing the deep skarn-type ore bodies is developing a versatile inversion scheme that can simultaneously resolve 3D sources with arbitrary shapes. In this case, we resort to interactive 3D forward modeling solution with the joint use of two data sets-total field surface and three-component borehole magnetic data. Joint inversion of the two data sets is expected to help resolve the ambiguity associated with either data set and greatly reduces the nonuniqueness of the magnetic inversion. Such nonuniqueness is especially severe when a 3-D distribution of magnetic susceptibility, instead of a simple body, is sought from the inversion.In this paper, we calculate the magnetic field on the surface and in the borehole caused by 3D arbitrarily-shaped bodies with the triple integral method. The complex 3D magnetic sources having arbitrary shapes are constructed with cross-sections, termination points and facets in our visualization technology. We specify, interactively and in a user-friendly environment, the outline of the sources in terms of geometric elements and their magnetic parameters. The method automatically fits the observations within a prescribed precision. If dissatisfied, the user can redefine the model parameters and proceed to a new inversion. The method's ability to interpret a complicated 3D geologic environment is demonstrated on synthetic models and real data profiles in the Daye iron-ore deposit in central China. The interactive forward modeling results in all tests demonstrate a good correlation of estimated magnetic sources with corresponding known geologic features.     

Evolutionary properties of stochastic models of earthquake accelerograms: Their dependence on magnitude and distance

An approach to generate artificial earthquakeaccelerograms on hard soil sites is presented. Eachtime-history of accelerations is considered as arealization of a non-stationary gaussian stochasticprocess, with statistical parameters depending onmagnitude and source-to-site distance. In order tolink the values of these parameters for each groundmotion record with the corresponding magnitude andsource-to-site distance, semi-empirical functionalrelations called generalized attenuationfunctions are determined. The set of realground-motion time histories used to obtain thesefunctions correspond to shocks generated at differentsources and recorded at different sites in thevicinity of the southern coast of Mexico. The resultsshow significant dispersion in the parameters of themodel adopted, which reflect that associated with thereal earthquakes included in the sample employed.The problem of conditional simulation of artificialacceleration time histories for prescribed intensitiesis briefly presented, but its detailed study is leftfor a companion paper. The criteria and modelsproposed are applied to generate two families ofartificial acceleration records for recurrenceintervals of 100 and 200 years at a specific sitelocated in the region under study. The results shownin this article correspond to acceleration timehistories recorded on firm ground for earthquakesgenerated at the subduction zone that runs along thesouthern coast of Mexico, and cannot be generalized tocases of earthquakes generated at other sources orrecorded at other types of local conditions. Thismeans that the methods and functional forms presentedhere are applicable to these other cases, but thevalues of the parameters that characterize thosefunctions may differ from those presented here.