Simulation of the active and quiet periods of seismicity

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The seismicity of the Kamchatka region: 1962–2011

This paper reviews the Kamchatka seismicity for a 50-year period of observation. These data were used to carry out a regionalization of Kamchatka’s seismic volume and adjacent areas. In all, ten zones were identified with differing activities and origins of seismicity. A comparative analysis was carried out for the seismicity in the more active zones. We found significant differences between the structures of the southern and the northern segment in the Kamchatka part of the Kuril-Kamchatka subduction zone. Seismological data corroborated a relationship between the subduction zone and the underthrusting of the Pacific plate under the Eurasian plate. These data from the 50-year period of observation helped identify a new Koryak seismic belt that encompasses the northwestern coast of the Bering Sea. We provide a brief review of macroseismic effects due to the most significant earthquakes for the 1962–2010 period.     

Application of mechanical and statistical models to the study of seismicity of syn-thetic earthquake

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Reservoir induced seismicity in the Koyna–Warna region,India: Overview of the recent results and hypotheses

The state of the art in the geological and geophysical study of the region of Koyna and Warna water reservoirs is reviewed. The probable geodynamical factors of induced seismicity are discussed. The detailed geophysical surveys, satellite geodetic data, and time history of the seismicity in the region reveal a complicated pattern of the structure and recent geodynamics of the region. The existing data suggest that the induced seismicity is here most likely to be caused by the regional (intraplate) stresses driving the displacements along the orthogonal network of the faults whose strength has dropped and continues decreasing due to the reservoir impoundment and operation processes. The evolution of the seismicity which started immediately after the rapid filling of the Koyna reservoir in the region of the dam, then rapidly expanded southwards and eventually became concentrated in the region of the subsequently constructed Warna reservoir shows that seismic events can be initiated by a number of factors whose contributions may vary with time. The key ones among them include reservoir loading and its seasonal variations; water saturation of the faults which guide the propagation of the front of fracture, increased permeability, and, probably, mineral transformations (hydrolysis) under the water level fluctuations in the reservoirs; and displacement of the front of the high pore pressure down to the main source zone of the earthquakes at a depth of 6–8 km. Based on the analysis presented in the paper, we outline the directions of the future research aimed at studying the nature and dynamics of induced seismicity in the region of large water reservoirs.     

Roman literary and epigraphic sources for the study of historical seismicity in Algeria circa 42–420 ad

The seismicity of Algeria since the nineteenth century is relatively well documented. However, compared with the numerous damaging earthquakes that are documented since 1850, fewer than a dozen reports of earthquakes are listed for the pre-1850 ad period, suggesting that the historical record is missing a substantial number of earthquakes. This paper examines the use of literary and epigraphic sources relevant to the investigation of seismicity in Algeria during Roman times. We provide examples where the meager written literary record may be supplemented with appropriate archaeological and epigraphic data describing damage to ancient Roman sites. The examples show that collaboration between earth scientists and archeologists is of utility in improving the seismic record and highlights the need for further study of data sources and repositories located both inside and outside of Algeria.     

Induced seismicity and the possibilities of controlled relaxation of tectonic stresses in the Earth’s crust

Natural and anthropogenic impacts on seismicity are considered. Taking into account the importance of the discussed problem, the authors propose to open the discussion on the questions considered. In this connection a wide circle of known experimental data is considered, which are indicative of the possibility in principle of active impact on the seismogenic medium for the smooth relieving of accumulated tectonic stresses in the Earth’ s crust. The reasoning is presented of one of the promising ways of the smooth controlled relaxation of the accumulated tectonic stresses in the Earth’s crust at the places of the probable onset of strong earthquakes due to a considerable increase in the plastic slips, which facilitate the decrease of the number and energy of earthquakes. The approach proposed is based on the results of the works on the excited seismicity, obtained in different regions of the Earth. Special attention is given to the most detailed long-term investigations of the excited seismicity in the region of the reservoir of the Nurek hydroelectric station in Tadzhikistan and in the neighborhood of the actively mined Romashkinskoe oil deposit in the Republic of Tatarstan. The results of the laboratory investigations of the behavior of samples made of materials of crystalline and amorphous structures under the action of pressure and vibration are invoked for the substantiation of the physical nature of the observed effects. For the reduction of seismic hazard, it is proposed to use vibration actions and water injection in the bore holes at the places of the expected seismic catastrophes in a time mode matched with the tidal motions of the Earth.     

Detection capabilities of the BURAR seismic array—contributions to the monitoring of regional and distant seismicity

Data recorded with the Bucovina Romanian Seismic Array (BURAR) seismic array between January 2005 and December 2008 were analyzed to verify the monitoring capabilities of regional and distant seismicity. For this time interval, nearly 35,000 events detected by BURAR and identified in seismic bulletins (Preliminary Determination of Epicenters and Romanian Earthquake Catalogue) were investigated using parameters as backazimuth, epicentral distance and magnitude. A remarkably detection capability is emphasized for teleseismic observations (Δ > 20°). BURAR onsets could be associated to almost 60% of all events in the teleseismic distance, with a magnitude detection threshold of 4.5 (mb). When no threshold magnitude is applied, the full detection capability of BURAR is in the same order as the performance of GERES array, which is one of the most sensitive stations in Central Europe. For regional events, detection capability decreases to about 16% of all events within regional distance range. The site conditions (crustal structure and high frequency cultural noise) as well as array dimension, affect the signal coherency and reduce the array detection capability for regional events. For both teleseismic and regional distances, a monthly variation of BURAR detection capabilities has been found; the number of events detected during the summer time is diminished by the specific seasonal human activity and atmospheric conditions (thunderstorms). To prove the good detection capability of the BURAR for teleseismic distances, a comparison with the observations of the Romanian Real Time Network in terms of magnitude and epicentral distance was carried out. The higher signal detection capability of BURAR is due to the array techniques applied in data processing, which enhance the signal-to-noise ratio. The monitoring performed by the BURAR seismic array provides a good azimuthal coverage of the regional and distant seismicity, in a large range of epicentral distances.     

Magmatic plumbing systems of the Koryakskii–Avacha Volcanic Cluster as inferred from observations of local seismicity and from the regime of adjacent thermal springs

An analysis of local seismicity within the Avacha–Koryakskii Volcanic Cluster during the 2000–2016 period revealed a sequence of plane-oriented earthquake clusters that we interpret as a process of dike and sill emplacement. The highest magmatic activity occurred in timing with the 2008–2009 steam–gas eruption of Koryakskii Volcano, with magma injection moving afterwards into the cone of Avacha Volcano (2010–2016). The geometry of the magma bodies reflects the NF geomechanical conditions (tension and normal faults, \(S_V>S_{H_{\text{max}}}>S_{h_{\text{min}}}\)) at the basement of Koryakskii Volcano dominated by vertical stresses S _v , with the maximum horizontal stress \(S_{h_{\text{max}}}\) pointing north. A CFRAC simulation of magma injection into a fissure under conditions that are typical of those in the basement of Koryakskii Volcano (the angle of dip is 60°, the size is 2 × 2 km², and the depth is –4 km abs.) showed that when the magma discharge is maintained at the level of 20000 kg/s during 24 hours the fissure separation increases to reach 0.3 m and the magma injection is accompanied by shear movements that occur at a rate as high as 2 × 10^–3 m/s, thus corresponding to the conditions of local seismic events with Mw below 4.5. We are thus able to conclude that the use of planeoriented clusters of earthquakes for identification of magma emplacement events is a physically sound procedure. The August 2, 2011 seismicity increase in the area of the Izotovskii hot spring (7 km from the summit of Koryakskii Volcano), which is interpreted as the emplacement of a dike, has been confirmed by an increase in the spring temperature by 10–12°C during the period from October 2011 to July 2012.     

A comprehensive analysis of Kamchatka seismicity for the period 2005–2007 using the regional catalog

We characterize the Kamchatka seismicity for the period 2005–2007. Regional catalogs of Kamchatka earthquakes were used to develop 2D distributions of parameters of background seismicity. The characteristics we consider include the activity A ₁₀, the slope of the recurrence curve γ, the parameters involved in the methods RTL, ΔS, and the “Z-function”, as well as the control of earthquake clustering. We have detected the space-time agreement between the anomalies exhibited by several parameters.     

Mining seismicity, gas outburst and the significance of their relationship in the study of physics of earthquake source

This paper presents an overview of mining seismicity, gas outburst and their origin. The internal relation of mining seismicity and gas outburst in the dynamic process is studied on the basis of the fact that these disasters sometimes occur simultaneously. The examples show a close relationship between mining seismicity and gas outburst in high gassy coal mines. It is proposed that strong mine shocks plus the response of low value and delay time are early warning signals. The mechanism of the relationship between mining seismicity and gas outburst is analyzed by using the location of mining shocks, focus mechanism, cause of mining shocks and conditions of gas outburst. The trigger action of gas fluid on mining shocks, especially the effect of the anomalous property of supercritical fluid on the preparation and occurrence of mining shocks is discussed. According to the similarity between min-ing-induced earthquakes and tectonic earthquakes in terms of mechanism, the significance of the above results in the study of physics of earthquake source is also discussed.     

Clustering properties of Etna seismicity during 1981–1991

Space and time clustering properties ofseismic activity, affecting Etna Volcano (Italy)during 1981–1991, are investigated by fractaldimension analysis. Very interesting volcanic andseismic activity occurred within this time interval.Temporal evolution of the time fractal dimension D _t calculated on a moving window, revealscorrelation with the eruptive processes at differenttime scales confirming results obtained for a differenttime span (De Rubeis et al., 1997). Spatial fractaldimension D _s shows to be negativelycorrelated with the time fractal dimension D _t, suggesting a peculiar dynamic patternassociated with volcanic processes.     

The prediction for seismicity trends of M≥8 in the world by analysis of seismicity patterns

After completion of a study on predicting risky zones of earthquake of M≥8 for 1-3 years in the mainland of China,which was supported by Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation(D07018 and D08009),a further study was extended to that of greater magnitudes in the world.Based on the historical earthquake cases,we finished the research report,forecasting global earthquakes with magnitude more than 8.0 using the image analysis of seismicity.In this research report,we summarize 11 abnormal seismicity images for predicting earthquake of M≥8.0 around the world.In our research report,we predicted earthquakes of M≥8.0 from June 2009 to June 2014,the medium term predicting within 5 years period.Among these 5 predictive areas,three earthquakes occurred,which is Samoa M8.1 Earthquake on 29 September 2009,Talca M8.5 Earthquake on 27 January 2010,Chile,and Eastern Sendai M9.0 Earthquake on 11 March 2011,Japan respectively.Here we introduce the main items of the image analysis of seismicity and we predict three earthquakes and think that the image analysis of seismicity can be of help.     

Statistical assessment of seismicity patterns in Italy: Are they precursors of subsequent events?

The variations of seismicity rate in Central Apenninesprior to the sequence started in September, 1997 (at00:33 UTC, M _L5.6) has been analysedby statistical methods, with the purpose of pointingup eventual periods of quiescence. The analysis wascarried out on the instrumental catalogue of theIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica (ING), covering theperiod from January 1975 to March 1998. In apreliminary phase, the catalogue was declustered usingthe Reasenberg algorithm. After that, eventualmagnitude shifts due to variations in the modalitiesof observation have been individuated and corrected.The subsequent analysis, carried out making use of theZmap software package, has put in evidence thatthe sequence of September 1997 was preceded bya 2.5 year period characterised by absence of eventsof magnitude larger than 3.2, in an area approximately20 × 40 km wide, including the epicentre of themain shock. The statistical methodology shows thatonly 1/10³ of the space-time volumes analysed inthis study, exhibited quiescence of the same level.The study of seismicity rate change correlated toprevious main shocks in a larger area of CentralApennines shows that none of them were preceded by aseismic quiescence, specially close to the epicentreof the main shock, and lasting until the time ofoccurrence of the main shock as in the 1997 case.Actually, we found other patterns of precursoryquiescence with different time or space distribution.We conclude that precursory quiescence is a realfeature of Central Apennines seismicity, but it isdifficult to define a simple hypothesis, which appliesto the generality of cases and can be tested beforeimplementation in a system of earthquake riskmitigation.     

Primary component analysis method and reduction of seismicity parameters

Introduction Data mining (SHAO and YU, 2003) is a new kind of technique developed with database and artificial intelligence in recent years, which processes the data in the database to abstract the im- plied and pre-unknown, but potentially useful information and knowledge from large amounts of incomplete, noisy, blurring and stochastic data. For data mining, data purging is an important link beforehand that includes eliminating noise, making up lost domain, and deleting ineffective data, as…     

Prediction of maximum magnitude and original time of reservoir induced seismicity

Introduction Prediction of RIS includes earlier stage prediction and seismic tendency prediction. In earlier stage, the prediction is to predict the possibility and maximum magnitude of RIS before reservoir are built up. It is made up on the basis of geological condition and the definite method and the statistical model method are usually used. The definite method by analogy with geological condi-tion is to analyze and sum up the main conditions of RIS. Using the main conditions compared w…     

A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for the Turkish territory: part II—fault source and background seismicity model

Over the years, several local and regional seismic hazard studies have been conducted for the estimation of the seismic hazard in Turkey using different statistical processing tools for instrumental and historical earthquake data and modeling the geologic and tectonic characteristics of the region. Recently developed techniques, increased knowledge and improved databases brought the necessity to review the national active fault database and the compiled earthquake catalogue for the development of a national earthquake hazard map. A national earthquake strategy and action plan were conceived and accordingly with the collaboration of the several institutions and expert researchers, the Revision of Turkish Seismic Hazard Map Project (UDAP-Ç-13-06) was initiated, and finalized at the end of 2014. The scope of the project was confined to the revision of current national seismic hazard map, using the state of the art technologies and knowledge of the active fault, earthquake database, and ground motion prediction equations. The following two seismic source zonation models are developed for the probabilistic earthquake hazard analysis: (1) Area source model, (2) Fault and spatial smoothing seismic source model (FSBCK). In this study, we focus on the development and the characterization of the Fault Source model, the background spatially smoothed seismicity model and intrinsic uncertainty on the earthquake occurrence-rates-estimation. Finally, PSHA results obtained from the fault and spatial smoothed seismic source model are presented for 43, 72, 475 and 2475 years return periods (corresponding to 69, 50, 10, and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years) for PGA and 5% damped spectral accelerations at 0.2 and 1.0 s.