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1.
Toward a ground-motion logic tree for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in Europe 总被引:7,自引:2,他引:7
Elise Delavaud Fabrice Cotton Sinan Akkar Frank Scherbaum Laurentiu Danciu Céline Beauval Stéphane Drouet John Douglas Roberto Basili M. Abdullah Sandikkaya Margaret Segou Ezio Faccioli Nikos Theodoulidis 《Journal of Seismology》2012,16(3):451-473
The Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe (SHARE) project, which began in June 2009, aims at establishing new standards for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in the Euro-Mediterranean region. In this context, a logic tree for ground-motion prediction in Europe has been constructed. Ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) and weights have been determined so that the logic tree captures epistemic uncertainty in ground-motion prediction for six different tectonic regimes in Europe. Here we present the strategy that we adopted to build such a logic tree. This strategy has the particularity of combining two complementary and independent approaches: expert judgment and data testing. A set of six experts was asked to weight pre-selected GMPEs while the ability of these GMPEs to predict available data was evaluated with the method of Scherbaum et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 99:3234?C3247, 2009). Results of both approaches were taken into account to commonly select the smallest set of GMPEs to capture the uncertainty in ground-motion prediction in Europe. For stable continental regions, two models, both from eastern North America, have been selected for shields, and three GMPEs from active shallow crustal regions have been added for continental crust. For subduction zones, four models, all non-European, have been chosen. Finally, for active shallow crustal regions, we selected four models, each of them from a different host region but only two of them were kept for long periods. In most cases, a common agreement has been also reached for the weights. In case of divergence, a sensitivity analysis of the weights on the seismic hazard has been conducted, showing that once the GMPEs have been selected, the associated set of weights has a smaller influence on the hazard. 相似文献
2.
Esther Hintersberger Frank Scherbaum Sebastian Hainzl 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2007,5(1):1-16
Scherbaum et al. [(2004) Bull Seismolo Soc Am 94(6): 2164–2185] proposed a likelihood-based approach to select and rank ground-motion
models for seismic hazard analysis in regions of low-seismicity. The results of their analysis were first used within the
PEGASOS project [Abrahamson et al. (2002), In Proceedings of the 12 ECEE, London, 2002, Paper no. 633] so far the only application
of a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) in Europe which was based on a SSHAC Level 4 procedure [(Budnitz et al.
1997, Recommendations for PSHA: guidance on uncertainty and use of experts. No. NUREG/CR-6372-V1). The outcome of this project
have generated considerable discussion (Klügel 2005, Eng Geol 78:285–307, 2005b) Eng Geol 78: 285–307, (2005c) Eng Geol 82:
79–85 Musson et al. (2005) Eng Geol 82(1): 43–55]; Budnitz et al. (2005), Eng Geol 78(3–4): 285–307], a central part of which
is related to the issue of ground-motion model selection and ranking. Since at the time of the study by Scherbaum et al. [(2004.)
Bull Seismolo Soc Am 94(6): 2164–2185], only records from one earthquake were available for the study area, here we test the
stability of their results using more recent data. Increasing the data set from 12 records of one earthquake in Scherbaum
et al. [(2004) Bull Seismolo Soc Am 94(6): 2164–2185] to 61 records of 5 earthquakes, which have mainly occurred since the
publication of the original study, does not change the set of the three top-ranked ground-motion models [Abrahamson and Silva
(1997) Seismolo Res Latt 68(1): 94–127; Lussou et al. (2001) J Earthquake Eng 5(1):13–33; Berge-Thierry et al. (2003) Bull
Seismolog Soc Am 95(2): 377–389. Only for the lower-ranked models do we obtain modifications in the ranking order. Furthermore,
the records from the Waldkirch earthquake (Dec, 5th, 2004, M
w = 4.9) enabled us to develop a new stochastic model parameter set for the application of Campbell’s [(2003) Bull Seismolo
Soc Am 93(3): 1012–1033] hybrid empirical model to SW Germany and neighbouring regions. 相似文献
3.
John Douglas Sinan Akkar Gabriele Ameri Pierre-Yves Bard Dino Bindi Julian J. Bommer Sanjay Singh Bora Fabrice Cotton Boumédiène Derras Marcel Hermkes Nicolas Martin Kuehn Lucia Luzi Marco Massa Francesca Pacor Carsten Riggelsen M. Abdullah Sandıkkaya Frank Scherbaum Peter J. Stafford Paola Traversa 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2014,12(1):341-358
This article presents comparisons among the five ground-motion models described in other articles within this special issue, in terms of data selection criteria, characteristics of the models and predicted peak ground and response spectral accelerations. Comparisons are also made with predictions from the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) models to which the models presented here have similarities (e.g. a common master database has been used) but also differences (e.g. some models in this issue are nonparametric). As a result of the differing data selection criteria and derivation techniques the predicted median ground motions show considerable differences (up to a factor of two for certain scenarios), particularly for magnitudes and distances close to or beyond the range of the available observations. The predicted influence of style-of-faulting shows much variation among models whereas site amplification factors are more similar, with peak amplification at around 1s. These differences are greater than those among predictions from the NGA models. The models for aleatory variability (sigma), however, are similar and suggest that ground-motion variability from this region is slightly higher than that predicted by the NGA models, based primarily on data from California and Taiwan. 相似文献
4.
Boumédiène Derras Pierre Yves Bard Fabrice Cotton 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2014,12(1):495-516
We have used the Artificial Neural Network method (ANN) for the derivation of physically sound, easy-to-handle, predictive ground-motion models from a subset of the Reference database for Seismic ground-motion prediction in Europe (RESORCE). Only shallow earthquakes (depth smaller than 25 km) and recordings corresponding to stations with measured $V_{s30}$ properties have been selected. Five input parameters were selected: the moment magnitude $M_{W}$ , the Joyner–Boore distance $R_{JB}$ , the focal mechanism, the hypocentral depth, and the site proxy $V_{S30}$ . A feed-forward ANN type is used, with one 5-neuron hidden layer, and an output layer grouping all the considered ground motion parameters, i.e., peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV) and 5 %-damped pseudo-spectral acceleration (PSA) at 62 periods from 0.01 to 4 s. A procedure similar to the random-effects approach was developed to provide between and within event standard deviations. The total standard deviation ( $\sigma $ ) varies between 0.298 and 0.378 (log $_{10}$ unit) depending on the period, with between-event and within-event variabilities in the range 0.149–0.190 and 0.258–0.327, respectively. Those values prove comparable to those of conventional GMPEs. Despite the absence of any a priori assumption on the functional dependence, our results exhibit a number of physically sound features: magnitude scaling of the distance dependency, near-fault saturation distance increasing with magnitude, amplification on soft soils and even indications for nonlinear effects in softer soils. 相似文献
5.
A partially non-ergodic ground-motion prediction equation is estimated for Europe and the Middle East. Therefore, a hierarchical model is presented that accounts for regional differences. For this purpose, the scaling of ground-motion intensity measures is assumed to be similar, but not identical in different regions. This is achieved by assuming a hierarchical model, where some coefficients are treated as random variables which are sampled from an underlying global distribution. The coefficients are estimated by Bayesian inference. This allows one to estimate the epistemic uncertainty in the coefficients, and consequently in model predictions, in a rigorous way. The model is estimated based on peak ground acceleration data from nine different European/Middle Eastern regions. There are large differences in the amount of earthquakes and records in the different regions. However, due to the hierarchical nature of the model, regions with only few data points borrow strength from other regions with more data. This makes it possible to estimate a separate set of coefficients for all regions. Different regionalized models are compared, for which different coefficients are assumed to be regionally dependent. Results show that regionalizing the coefficients for magnitude and distance scaling leads to better performance of the models. The models for all regions are physically sound, even if only very few earthquakes comprise one region. 相似文献
6.
In the framework of the 2004 reference seismic hazard map of Italy the amplitude of the strong-motion (expressed in terms
of Peak Horizontal Acceleration with 10% probability of non-exceedence in 50 years, referred to average hard ground conditions)
was computed using different predictive relationships. Equations derived in Italy and in Europe from strong-motion data, as
well as a set of weak and strong-motion based empirical predictive relationships were employed in a logic tree procedure,
in order to capture the epistemic uncertainty affecting ground-motion attenuation. This article describes the adjustments
and conversions required to eliminate the incompatibilities amongst the relations. Particularly significant are distance conversions
and style-of-faulting adjustments, as well as the problems related to the use of regional relations, such as the selection
of a reference depth, the quantification of random variability and the strong-motion prediction. Moreover, a regional attenuation
relationship specific for volcanic areas was also employed, allowing a more realistic evaluation of seismic hazard, as confirmed
by the attenuation of macroseismic intensities. 相似文献
7.
Kotha Sreeram Reddy Bindi Dino Cotton Fabrice 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2022,20(2):711-740
Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering - Typical seismic ground-motion models predict the response spectral ordinates (GMM-SA), which are the damped responses of a suite of single-degree-of-freedom... 相似文献
8.
Current empirical ground-motion prediction equations for Europe and their application to Eurocode 8 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
The first ground-motion prediction equation derived from European and Middle Eastern strong-motion data was published more
than 30 years ago; since then strong-motion networks and the resulting databank of accelerograms in the region have expanded
significantly. Many equations for the prediction of peak ground-motion parameters and response spectral ordinates have been
published in recent years both for the entire Euro-Mediterranean and Middle Eastern region as well as for individual countries
within this region. Comparisons among empirical ground-motion models for these parameters, developed using large regional
datasets, do not support the hypothesis of there being significant differences in earthquake ground-motions from one area
of crustal seismicity to another. However, there are certain regions within Europe—affected by different tectonic regimes—for
which the existing pan-European equations may not be applicable. The most recent European equations make it possible to now
implement overdue modifications to the presentation of seismic design actions in Eurocode 8 that allow an improved approximation
to the target uniform hazard spectrum (UHS). Using these recent equations, this study outlines a new approach via which an
approximation to the UHS may be constructed using hazard maps calculated for peak ground velocity and the corner period T
D in addition to the maps for peak ground acceleration that underpin the current stipulations of Eurocode 8. 相似文献
9.
Empirical ground-motion models for point- and extended-source crustal earthquake scenarios in Europe and the Middle East 总被引:12,自引:9,他引:3
This article presents the latest generation of ground-motion models for the prediction of elastic response (pseudo-) spectral accelerations, as well as peak ground acceleration and velocity, derived using pan-European databases. The models present a number of novelties with respect to previous generations of models (Ambraseys et al. in Earthq Eng Struct Dyn 25:371–400, 1996, Bull Earthq Eng 3:1–53, 2005; Bommer et al. in Bull Earthq Eng 1:171–203, 2003; Akkar and Bommer in Seismol Res Lett 81:195–206, 2010), namely: inclusion of a nonlinear site amplification function that is a function of $\text{ V }_\mathrm{S30}$ and reference peak ground acceleration on rock; extension of the magnitude range of applicability of the model down to $\text{ M }_\mathrm{w}$ 4; extension of the distance range of applicability out to 200 km; extension to shorter and longer periods (down to 0.01 s and up to 4 s); and consistent models for both point-source (epicentral, $\text{ R }_\mathrm{epi}$ , and hypocentral distance, $\text{ R }_\mathrm{hyp}$ ) and finite-fault (distance to the surface projection of the rupture, $\text{ R }_\mathrm{JB}$ ) distance metrics. In addition, data from more than 1.5 times as many earthquakes, compared to previous pan-European models, have been used, leading to regressions based on approximately twice as many records in total. The metadata of these records have been carefully compiled and reappraised in recent European projects. These improvements lead to more robust ground-motion prediction equations than have previously been published for shallow (focal depths less than 30 km) crustal earthquakes in Europe and the Middle East. We conclude with suggestions for the application of the equations to seismic hazard assessments in Europe and the Middle East within a logic-tree framework to capture epistemic uncertainty. 相似文献
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In a companion article Akkar et al. (Bull Earthq Eng, doi:10.1007/s10518-013-9461-4, 2013a; Bull Earthq Eng, doi:10.1007/s10518-013-9508-6, 2013b) present a new ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) for estimating 5 %-damped horizontal pseudo-acceleration spectral (PSA) ordinates for shallow active crustal regions in Europe and the Middle East. This study provides a supplementary viscous damping model to modify 5 %-damped horizontal spectral ordinates of Akkar et al. (Bull Earthq Eng, doi:10.1007/s10518-013-9461-4 2013a; Bull Earthq Eng, doi:10.1007/s10518-013-9508-6, 2013b) for damping ratios ranging from 1 to 50 %. The paper also presents another damping model for scaling 5 %-damped vertical spectral ordinates that can be estimated from the vertical-to-horizontal (V/H) spectral ratio GMPE that is also developed within the context of this study. For consistency in engineering applications, the horizontal and vertical damping models cover the same damping ratios as noted above. The article concludes by introducing period-dependent correlation coefficients to compute horizontal and vertical conditional mean spectra (Baker in J Struct Eng 137:322–331, 2011). The applicability range of the presented models is the same as of the horizontal GMPE proposed by Akkar et al. (Bull Earthq Eng, doi:10.1007/s10518-013-9461-4 2013a; Bull Earthq Eng, doi:10.1007/s10518-013-9508-6, 2013b): as for spectral periods $0.01 \hbox { s}\le \,\hbox {T}\le \,4\hbox { s}$ as well as PGA and PGV for V/H model; and in terms of seismological estimator parameters $4\le \hbox {M}_\mathrm{w} \le 8, \hbox { R} \le 200 \hbox { km}, 150\hbox { m/s}\le \hbox { V}_\mathrm{S30}\le $ 1,200 m/s, for reverse, normal and strike-slip faults. The source-to-site distance measures that can be used in the computations are epicentral $(\hbox {R}_\mathrm{epi})$ , hypocentral $(\hbox {R}_\mathrm{hyp})$ and Joyner–Boore $(\hbox {R}_\mathrm{JB})$ distances. The implementation of the proposed GMPEs will facilitate site-specific adjustments of the spectral amplitudes predicted from probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in Europe and the Middle East region. They can also help expressing the site-specific design ground motion in several formats. The consistency of the proposed models together with the Akkar et al. (Bull Earthq Eng, doi:10.1007/s10518-013-9461-4 2013a; Bull Earthq Eng, doi:10.1007/s10518-013-9508-6, 2013b) GMPE may be advantageous for future modifications in the ground-motion definition in Eurocode 8 (CEN in Eurocode 8, Design of structures for earthquake resistance—part 1: general rules, seismic actions and rules for buildings. European Standard NF EN 1998-1, Brussels, 2004). 相似文献
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围绕建立一个地震核查数据库的主题,论述了地震核查数据库的设计思路,数据库的数据结构和数据服务。 相似文献
17.
利用数据库系统进行地震数据管理和共享服务 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
讨论了在数据管理和共享服务中数据库系统相对于文件系统的优越 ,介绍了当今数据库系统的发展现状和方向,并列举了成功应用数据库系统进行数据管理和共享服务的范例,从而论证了地震系统建设分布式数据库系统的必要性。 相似文献
18.
微震高发区佛子岭单台地震数据库及日常分析应用软件 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
佛子岭地震台周围30km范围内是微震多发地区,每年都发生大量1级左右的微震,其中很多微震因为震级小,其他台站记录不到。我们建立了佛子岭单台微震数据库,研制了微震统计分析软件,在日常微震活动分析工作中发挥了较好的作用。 相似文献
19.
Introduction In recent years, with the development of earthquake observation technology, increasing ofobservation stations and improvement of observation instruments which are digitalized and con-nected by network, a great deal of data is recorded, to some extend, which brings difficulty for usto manage and store them. It leads to traditional methods, which use the file system to managemass data, could not satisfy our requirement, and it is necessary to find a new method in place oftradit… 相似文献