黄土丘陵区典型小流域土地利用变化研究——以陕西延安地区大南沟流域为例

利用航片解译和景生态学方法研究了陕北黄土丘陵区大南沟流域在20世纪70年代和90年代的土地利用结构的特点和变化，结果表：从1975年到1999年，梯田，坡耕地，稀疏林地，灌丛面积减少，所占百分比呈下降趋势，而有林地，果园，荒地所占百分比呈上升趋势，梯田，有林地，灌丛和茺地平均斑块面积在增大，而坡耕地，稀疏林地，果园的平均斑块面积在减小，果园和坡耕地分维数在变大，斑块形状趋于复杂化，而有林地，稀疏林地，灌丛，梯田和荒地的斑块分维数在变小，斑块形状趋势规则小，有林地，灌丛，果园，荒地的分离度在下降，稀疏林地，梯田和坡耕地的分离度在上升，说明有林地，罐丛，果园和荒地的地位在上升，而稀疏林地，梯田和坡耕地的地位在下降，全区单位面积的斑块数目的磁大，在一定程度上表明农田中地块之间的边界增多，其结果是导致一些土地资源和浪费和不利于土地管理，景观多样性指数和土地利用相对合理指数在增大，但变化较小，1997年与1975年相比，整体上土利用结构稍有好转，但这种土地利用结构远未达理想状态。     

Spain. Regional differences in population density in 1986: the end of a process of increasing internal disequilibrium?

This is an analysis of regional differences in population trends in Spain during the twentieth century. Data are from a variety of official sources, including the censuses of 1900, 1960, 1970, and 1981. The author notes that up until 1975, interregional migration flows had acccentuated regional economic differences. However, the economic problems that have occurred since 1975, coupled with the political changes associated with greater regional autonomy, have resulted in new trends in internal migration that could have significant effects on the future distribution of the country's population.     

Declining inner suburbs? A longitudinal-spatial analysis of large metropolitan regions in Canada

Spatially referenced quantitative research that attempts systematically to assess inner suburban decline in Canadian metropolitan areas is almost completely missing from the literature. This paper aims to fill this gap and examine whether inner suburban decline is occurring in Canada. Aggregated census tract level data are used to assess all zones for decline based on relative prosperity changes in median household income, average dwelling values, and average gross rent. The results indicate that inner suburbs in Canadian cities experienced a decline in median household income, average dwelling value, and prosperity factors between 1986 and 2006. While a few possible explanations and policy approaches are offered, more research is necessary to explore the implications of these trends.     

Estimating Future Residential Water Consumption in Phoenix,Arizona Based on Simulated Changes in Climate

Previous studies have shown that residential water consumption in Phoenix, Arizona is significantly related to changes in climate, although that sensitivity varies substantially from one census tract to another. In this investigation, we determine the empirical relationship between water consumption and variations in temperature and precipitation. We find the sensitivity of water consumption to either climate variable is positively related to the percent of land covered in mesic irrigated landscaping, mean household income, lot size, and percent of single-family residential lots containing swimming pools. We use estimated changes in temperature and precipitation for 50 model-scenario combinations presented by the IPCC, and we determined that mean water consumption should increase by an average of over 3% by ~2050, but the climate-induced change in consumption varies considerably across census tracts.     

Is Larger Scale Better? Evidence from Rice Farming in Jianghan Plain

Small-scale household agricultural production has been in conflict with China’s agricultural modernization. In the context of vigorously promoting rural land circulation and moderate scale management nationwide, research on the relationship between farm size and scale efficiency has become increasingly important. In this paper, we use the “DEA-OLS” two stage method to analyze data from 368 surveys of rice farming households in the Jianghan Plain. The scale efficiency of rice farming was calculated, and the relationship between farm size and scale efficiency investigated. The results indicate that (1) the rice farm size is generally small in Jianghan Plain, with an average of 0.77 ha. The average scale efficiency is 0.88, and it is the main factor limiting an increase in comprehensive technical efficiency. Moreover, 88.32% of households are in the stage of increasing returns to scale. (2) There is a stable inverted “U” type relationship between rice farm size and scale efficiency. Considering characteristics of the householder, the household and land quality, the maximum scale efficiency corresponds to a household with 5 ha of rice farm. (3) Among householder characteristics, age has a significant negative influence on scale efficiency, and scale efficiency is lower for a household whose householder is engaged in non-farm work than for one whose householder is devoted to farming. As for land quality, there was a significant positive effect of irrigation on scale efficiency. Among family characteristics, the application of a machine during the seeding process increased scale efficiency by 3.07%. Therefore, we suggest that local government should actively promote rural land circulation, implement a staged-scale management subsidy, and other forms of support for the purchase of agricultural machinery and technical popularization. Increased investment in irrigation improvements and mechanical facilities and encouragement of farmers to enlarge their farm size could improve scale efficiency and farming profit and lead to the development of moderate scale management.     

CHANGES IN SOVIET NATURAL GAS FLOWS: 1970–1985*

Natural gas flows in the USSR are modeled using the out-of-kilter algorithm after the transmission system is abstracted into a network of demand and supply nodes and bounded arcs. Evaluation of the resulting flow pattern is done for 1970, 1975, 1980, and 1985. Shifts in gas supplies from the European area to Central Asia and now to West Siberia have necessitated changes in the Soviet natural gas pipeline system. The system is entering a period of long run stability between the geographic distribution of supply and demand in contrast to a continually changing distribution pattern before 1980.     

重庆市武隆县农地流转下农业劳动力对耕地撂荒的不同尺度影响

在农地流转市场日趋完善的背景下,农户间的耕地流转无疑会缓解因部分农户劳动力不足造成的耕地撂荒现象,但仅从农户尺度上分析难以揭示农业劳动力数量与耕地撂荒间的关系。运用重庆市武隆县17 个乡镇40个自然村的308 份农户调查数据,通过二分类Logistic 回归模型、简单相关和偏相关分析,从农户和村庄两个层次上探讨农业劳动力对耕地撂荒的影响程度及农地流转对两者关系的影响。结果显示：① 农户尺度上亩均农业劳动力对耕地是否撂荒的影响不显著,而在村庄尺度上显著。② 亩均务农劳动力与耕地撂荒规模的偏相关回归分析中,控制耕地流转和不控制流转条件下,农户尺度上两者的偏相关系数和简单相关系数分别为-0.138 和-0.027,前者在1%水平上显著,而后者不显著;村庄尺度上,控制流转和不控制流转的相关系数分别为-0.273 和-0.294,均在5%水平上显著。③ 在农地流转市场较为完善的地区,选择在村庄尺度上进行农业劳动力对耕地撂荒影响分析研究是比较合理的。     

国内外生命历程与居住选择研究回顾和展望

1970年代后生命历程分析成为贯穿居住选择微观研究的核心方法。住房权属选择和居住流动是西方居住选择微观研究的主要内容。西方研究大多为应用生命历程观念将住房权属转换和居住流动决策与家庭生命历程和住房市场中的重要诱因联系起来,发现家庭特征、家庭生命周期变化和住房市场环境等都是居住选择的重要影响因素。对比西方的研究,中国城市居住选择微观研究非常缺乏,一些研究发现除了家庭特征和住房市场特征外,政府和工作单位的影响非常大。     

河西走廊西端灌丛沙丘发育过程及其对沙漠化的指示意义

在风沙活动强烈的荒漠地区开展环境变化研究常缺乏符合要求的地质测年材料。灌丛沙丘是干旱区发育的一种特殊生物地貌类型,具有计年和储存环境信息的功能,可以用来重建沙丘的发育过程和过去的环境变化。以河西走廊西端花海盆地发育的灌丛沙丘沉积剖面为研究对象,基于AMS¹⁴C年代学及沉积物粒度、碳酸盐含量、地球化学元素等代用指标的分析,与文献记载、沙漠化监测数据和近几十年的器测气象资料对比分析,试图揭示区域灌丛沙丘的发育过程及其环境指示意义。结果表明：花海盆地灌丛沙丘的发育时间已超过800 年;20世纪60年代中后期至70年代早期人类活动的干扰曾使灌丛沙丘的堆积过程中断,但丰富的物源随后又促使灌丛沙丘再次快速发育。沙丘物源曾发生过剧烈的变化,使得灌丛沙丘沉积物中的粗颗粒组分和中值粒径并不适于作为环境代用指标重建区域的风沙环境变化,而细颗粒组分（<63 μm和<10 μm）和碳酸盐含量的变化,则揭示了研究区在20世纪70-80年代（沙丘高度300~420 cm）时获得了丰富的物质来源。灌丛沙丘沉积物中的Zr/Rb比值,能够作为良好的环境代用指标指示1970-1988年（沙丘高度300~420 cm）区域处在风沙活动较强烈的环境;近几十年花海盆地土地沙漠化明显,尤其是20世纪70年代和80年代。灌丛沙丘可以作为有较高可信度的地质记录载体,在河西走廊西端重建较长时间尺度的、高分辨率的区域气候环境演变历史。     

近30年来西藏那曲地区湖泊变化对气候波动的响应

根据1975年地形图、20世纪80年代至2005年的TM、CBERS卫星遥感资料和近45年的气温、降水量、蒸发量、最大积雪深度和最大冻土深度等气候资料分析得出,西藏那曲地区东南部的巴木错、蓬错、东错、乃日平错等四个湖泊的水位面积在近30年来呈较显著的扩大趋势,2005年与1975年相比,分别增加了48.2 km²、38.2km²、19.8 km² (比2004年)、26.0 km²,增长幅度分别为25.6%、28.2%、16.2%、37.6%。其主要原因与该地区近年来气温的上升、降水量的增加和蒸发量的减少、冻土退化等暖湿化的气候变化有很大关系。     

基于HLM和GWR的汪清县农村贫困成因探究

明确贫困成因是提高精准扶贫效率和稳定脱贫成效的基本前提。对偏远少数民族聚居区——吉林省汪清县农村贫困成因进行解析,采用多层线性模型(HLM)同时分析了家庭层次和环境层次因素对农村贫困家庭年纯收入的影响,并利用地理加权回归方法(GWR)探索了环境层次变量影响的空间异质性。研究结果显示： ① 汪清县贫困农户家庭层次因素对家庭年纯收入的影响强于环境层次因素,但环境层次因素的影响作用亦不可忽视; ② 剔除环境层次因素的影响后,绝大多数家庭层次因素对贫困家庭年纯收入存在显著影响; ③ 环境层次因素能够在不同程度上解释家庭层次因素影响效应的差异性; ④ 环境层次因素的影响在不同区域的作用方向和强度上存在显著差异。最后从村域发展环境、医疗就业、区域内部贫困差异方面提出改善建议。     

Migration and household change in the population aged 65 and over, 1971-1991

"This analysis uses the ONS [Office for National Statistics] Longitudinal Study, a record linkage study including individual-level data from three national Censuses (1971, 1981 and 1991) and linked vital registration data, to examine migration patterns among older people [in Great Britain]. The aims of this study are to examine regional differences in household composition, to look at changes in the relationship between household change and migration over time, and finally, to analyse the interrelationships between changes in household composition, health and migration in the 1981-91 period.... Despite...dramatic changes in the living arrangements of older people, results show that mobility among the elderly remained relatively stable between the 1971-81 and 1981-91 decades."     

Contribution of the demographic factor to the migration turnarounds in Japan,Sweden and Canada

"It is well known that similar changes of migration pattern occurred during recent decades in most developed countries; core regions recorded a greatly decreased net in-migration in the 1970s, but increased net in-migration in the 1980s. Based on shift-share analysis of the migration data of Japan, Sweden and Canada, this paper reveals that changing cohort size, especially related to the fertility fluctuation of baby boom and bust, has played an important role in the turnarounds. Furthermore, it is elucidated from a series of correlation analyses that this demographic factor was closely linked with labour-market restructuring in terms of industrial/occupational employment changes."     

Ocean-bottom seismograph observations on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge near 45° N

Summary. Rayleigh-wave phase velocities at very long periods (185–290 s) are investigated and regionalized, taking into account the lateral heterogeneities within ocean plates revealed by earlier studies at shorter periods. The two-station method is applied to a few 'pure-age' oceanic paths, and is shown to be compatible with the average Earth model C2 (Anderson & Hart 1976) below depths of 180 km. Under this assumed oceanic model, regionalized for age above 180 km, continental velocities are then derived from a set of experimental great-circle values, both new or taken from previously published studies. The results basically agree with earlier studies (Dziewonski 1970; Kanamori 1970), although they exhibit less scatter than Kanamori's model. Results are successfully checked against a set of values derived by the two-station method from a pure continental path.
Although the shield velocities are substantially different from the mean oceanic ones, they still fall within the range of variation of oceanic velocities with the age of the plate. This makes velocities derived theoretically from Jordan's (1975a, b) models of deep continent—ocean lateral heterogeneities, inconsistent with the present set of experimental data. Finally, we show that Dziewonski's (1971) model S2 reconciles all experimental seismic data relative to shields, without being significantly different from oceanic models below 240 km.     

Violence and the Dialectics of Landscape: Memorialization in Cambodia

Between 1975 and 1979, approximately two million people were killed in the Cambodian genocide. To date, considerable research has examined the legacies of this period of Cambodia's history, as well as the geographies of memorialization associated with genocidal violence. In this paper we both critique and expand current understandings. We do so, first, through a destabilization of the periodization of Cambodia's violent past and, second, through a re‐theorization of violence itself. Specifically, we resituate the Cambodian genocide as part of a more systemic effort of post‐conflict reconstruction. We argue that from the perspective of the Khmer Rouge, those policies and practices imposed post‐1975 were forwarded in the context of state‐building following five years of civil war (1970–1975). Consequently, a view of genocide as post‐conflict reconstruction calls into question standard understandings of the genocide and especially the post‐1979 memorialization of genocide. To accomplish our goals, we introduce a dialectical understanding of both potential and realized violence, and potential and realized memorialized landscapes.     

不同城市化水平地区农户农地收入分析——基于浙江省农户的问卷调查

用SPSS13.0单因素方差分析和均值比较方法,对浙江省不同城市化地区的农户农地收入比重进行比较分析。认为城市化不同,农户农地收入比重不同,城市化程度高的地区农户农地利用经济收入比值的平均值低于城市化程度低的地区,但城市化程度高的地区农户农地收入比值标准差大于城市化低的地区,其中主要原因是城市化不同导致农户兼业时间不同。提出要创造条件促进资源集中型农户兼业化,使农户农地利用经济效率得到提高,缩小城乡收入差距。     

Recent changes in diatom-inferred pH, heavy metals, and spheroidal carbonaceous particles in lake sediments near an oil refinery at Mongstad, Western Norway

Sediments from two naturally acid lakes have been used to investigate whether there is any local impact of atmospheric pollution from an oil refinery at Mongstad in Western Norway. The refinery started production in 1975 and expanded in 1987. One lake was selected as a reference site as it only receives long-range transported air pollution, whereas a second lake was selected as it was expected to receive both long-range transported and local air pollution from the refinery. Heavy metal (Pb, Ni and Zn) and spheroidal carbonaceous particle (SCP) (> 5 µm in diameter) concentrations and accumulation rates have been estimated and lake-water pH has been reconstructed by weighted averaging and weighted averaging partial least squares regression and calibration from the fossil diatom assemblages.Heavy metals that are in the size range for which atmospheric residence time is greatest do not show any enhanced levels in the sediments after 1975 that could be associated with local impacts from the refinery. SCPs in the sediments that are in the size range thought to be effectively removed by dry deposition, and thus have a more local deposition pattern, show an increase after 1975 and an additional large increase after 1987 that can be explained by impacts from the local oil refinery. After 1975 the SCP diameter distribution changed from being dominated by SCPs with a small diameter in the range 5-10 µm to SCPs with larger diameters. The SO₂ emission from the oil refinery seems to have had no significant effect on lake pH. The reconstructed lake pH history is complex, possibly related to land-use changes and long-range transported air pollution.     

中国城市扩展对气温观测的影响及其高估程度

由于中国城市扩展导致部分气象站点被动进入城市内部,从而造成对区域气温的高估.本文利用遥感多期影像对中国700多个气象站点各历史时期的下垫面进行判别,得到"进城"站点及其进城时间.通过比较"进城"站点的观测数据和背景气温,计算出70年代以来"进城"气象站点上的平均热岛效应强度,并对热岛效应强度的季节性筹异进行了分析,得出70年代以来秋冬季节的热岛强度高于春季和夏季的结沦.通过比较真实气温和背景气温的空间数据,识别出了气温高估区域,得出中国东部地区的气温高估略高于中部地区,东部地区和中部地区的气温高估均远高于西部地区的结论.通过计算真实气温和背景气温序列的年平均气温变化趋势,得出近40年来全国的增温值约为1.58℃,其中凶城市扩展带来的增温贡献约为0.01℃,在气温高估的核心区域的贡献约为0.09℃.     

近百年来全球不同冷、暖期温度分布及环流特征

本文用全球格点气温、海面温度、海平面气压等资料分析了本世纪以来四个不同冷暖时段（１９０６－１９１５，１９３６－１９４５，１９６６－１９７５及１９７９－１９８８年）的温度场和地面气压场。着重讨论了不同冷、暖期之间温度距平场的分布特点、区域和季节差异以及海、陆变化的不同步性等。在温度的纬向谐波分析中发现冬季暖期，中、高纬度超长波活动盛行，表明１０年尺度冷、暖的环流机制与天气尺度是一致的。     

Variations of bank shift rates along the Yinchuan Plain reach of the Yellow River and their influencing factors

It is important to examine the lateral shift rate variation of river banks in different periods. One of the challenges in this regard is how to obtain the shift rate of river banks, as gauging stations are deficient for the study of river reaches. The present study selected the Yinchuan Plain reach of the Yellow River with a length of 196 km as a case study, and searched each point of intersection of 153 cross-sections (interval between two adjacent cross-sections was 1.3 km) and river banks in 1975, 1990, 2010 and 2011, which were plotted according to remote sensing images in those years. Then the shift rates for the points of intersection during 1975–1990, 1990–2010 and 2010–2011 were calculated, as well as the average shift rates for different sections and different periods. The results show that the left bank of the river reach shifts mostly to the right, with the average shift rates being 36.5 m/a, 27.8 m/a and 61.5 m/a in the three periods, respectively. Contemporarily, the right bank shifts mostly to the right in the first period, while it shifts to the left in the second and third periods, with the average shift rates being 31.7 m/a, 23.1 m/a and 50.8 m/a in the three periods, respectively. The average shift rates for the left and right banks during the period 1975–2011 are 22.3 m/a and 14.8 m/a, respectively. The bank shift rates for sections A, B and C are different. The shift rate ratio of the left bank in the three sections is 1:7.6:4.6 for shift to the left and 1:1.7:3.8 for shift to the right, while that of the right bank is 1:1.8:1.2 for shift to the left and 1:5.6:17.7 for shift to the right during the period 1975–2011. Obviously, the average shift rate is the least in section A, while it is maximum in section B for shift to the left and in section C for shift to the right. The temporal variation of the shift rate is influenced by human activities, while the spatial variation is controlled by the local difference in bank materials.