A macroseismic model of a tsunami source and estimation of its efficiency by numerical modeling

A typical model of the source of a tsunami (“macroseismic source”) is suggested for use in approximate estimation of maximum tsunami height using straightforward numerical modeling. In this paper the model is tested using three actual events: the 1952 North Kuril Is., 1971 Moneron, and 1994 Shikotan earthquakes, which excited considerable tsunamis at Russia’s Far East coasts. Comparison of the maximum tsunami runup values as obtained in numerical experiments with observations of actual tsunamis showed that the numerical model proposed here is suitable for crude estimation of tsunami runup and tsunami waiting times for coastal population centers in the near zone of a tsunami source.     

Tsunami Sediment Characteristics at the Thai Andaman Coast

This paper describes and summarizes the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami sediment characteristics at the Thai Andaman coast. Field investigations have been made approximately 3 years after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami event. Seven transects have been examined at five locations. Sediment samples have been collected for grain-size analyses by wet-sieve method. Tsunami sediments are compared to three deposits from coastal sub-environments. The mean grain-size and standard deviation of deposits show that shoreface deposits are fine to very fine sand, poorly to moderately well sorted; swash zone deposits are coarse to fine sand, poorly to well sorted; berm/dune deposits are medium to fine sand, poorly to well sorted; and tsunami deposits are coarse to very fine sand, poorly to moderately well sorted. A plot of deposit mean grain-size versus sorting indicates that tsunami deposits are composed of shoreface deposits, swash zone deposits and berm/dune deposits as well. The tsunami sediment is a gray sand layer deposited with an erosional base on a pre-existing soil (rooted soil). The thickness of the tsunami sediment layer is variable. The best location for observation of the recent tsunami sediment is at about 50–200 m inland from the coastline. In most cases, the sediment layer is normally graded. In some cases, the sediment contains rip-up clasts of muddy soils and/or organic matter. The vertical variation of tsunami sediment texture shows that the mean grain-size is fining upward and landward. Break points of slope in a plot of standard deviation versus depth mark a break in turbulence associated with a transition to a lower or higher Reynolds number runup. This can be used to evaluate tsunami sediment main layer and tsunami sediment sub layers. The skewness of tsunami sediment indicates a grain size distribution with prominent finer-grain or coarse-grain particles. The kurtosis of tsunami sediment indicates grain-size distributions which are flat to peak distribution (or multi-modal to uni-modal distribution) upward. Generally, the major origins of tsunami sediment are swash zone and berm/dune zone sands where coarse to medium sands are the significant material at these locations. The minor origin of tsunami sediment is the shoreface where the significant materials are fine to very fine sands. However, for a coastal area where the shoreface slope is mild, the major origin of tsunami sediment is the shoreface. The interpretation of runup number from tsunami sediment characteristics gets three runups for the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami at the Thai Andaman coast. It corresponds to field observations from local eyewitnesses. The 1st runup transported and deposited more coarse particles than the following runups. Overall, the pattern of onshore tsunami sediment transportation indicates erosion at swash zone and berm/dune zone, followed by dynamic equilibrium at an area behind the berm/dune zone and after that deposition at inland zone until the limit of sediment inundation. The total deposition is a major pattern in onshore tsunami sediment transportation at the deposition zone which the sediment must find in the direction of transport.     

The effects of the 2004 tsunami on a coastal aquifer in Sri Lanka

On December 26, 2004, the earthquake off the southern coast of Sumatra in the Indian Ocean generated far-reaching tsunami waves, resulting in severe disruption of the coastal aquifers in many countries of the region. The objective of this study was to examine the impact of the tsunami on groundwater in coastal areas. Field investigations on the east coast of Sri Lanka were carried out along a transect located perpendicular to the coastline on a 2.4 km wide sand stretch bounded by the sea and a lagoon. Measurements of groundwater table elevation and electrical conductivity (EC) of the groundwater were carried out monthly from October 2005 to August 2007. The aquifer system and tsunami saltwater intrusion were modeled using the variable-density flow and solute transport code HST3D to understand the tsunami plume behavior and estimate the aquifer recovery time. EC values reduced as a result of the monsoonal rainfall following the tsunami with a decline in reduction rate during the dry season. The upper part of the saturated zone (down to 2.5 m) returned to freshwater conditions (EC < 1000 μS/cm) 1 to 1.5 years after the tsunami, according to field observations. On the basis of model simulations, it may take more than 15 years for the entire aquifer (down to 28 m) to recover completely, although the top 6 m of the aquifer may become fresh in about 5 years.     

港湾中海啸流的模拟及其时空演变特征对输入条件不确定性的响应分析

一直以来,海啸波特征作为表征海啸潜在破坏性的参数指标得到了广泛应用,特别是针对近场极端海啸事件造成的灾害来说,这种表征具有较好的适用性.然而总结分析历史海啸事件造成的损失发现：在远场近岸及港湾系统中,海啸诱导的强流却是造成损失的主要原因.陆架或港湾振荡导致海啸波幅快速升降诱发强流,可能促使港工设施受到威胁及损害,进而对海啸预警服务及海事应急管理提出了新的挑战.因此,全面理解与评估海啸在港湾中诱发的灾害特征,探索港湾中海啸流的数值模拟方法,发展针对港湾尺度的海啸预警服务指导产品尤为迫切.受限于海啸流验证数据的缺乏及准确模拟海啸流技术方法的诸多不确定性,大部分海啸数值模拟研究工作主要是针对水位特征的研究及验证,可能导致对港湾中海啸灾害危险性认识的曲解与低估.本研究基于非线性浅水方程,针对夏威夷群岛三个典型港湾建立了精细化海啸数值模型（空间分辨率达到10 m）,并联合有限断层破裂模型计算分析了日本东北地震海啸在三个港湾及其邻近区域的海啸特征,波、流计算结果与实测结果吻合较好,精细化的海啸港湾模型模拟结果可信.模拟发现港湾中较小的波幅,同样可以产生强流.综合分析日本东北地震海啸波、流特征对输入条件不确定性的响应结果发现：港湾中海啸波-流能量的空间分布特征差异较大,这与港湾系统中海啸波的驻波特性相关;相比海啸波幅空间特征,海啸流特征具有更强的空间敏感性;海啸流时空分布特征对输入条件的不确定性响应比海啸波幅对这些不确定性的响应更强,海啸流的模拟与预报更有挑战性;不确定性对海啸流计算精度的影响会进一步传导放大港湾海啸流危险性的评估及对港工设施产生的应力作用的误差,合理的输入条件对海啸流的精确模拟至关重要.最后,希望通过本文的研究可以从海啸波-流特征角度更加全面认识近岸海啸灾害特征,拓展海啸预警服务的广度与深度,从而为灾害应急管理部门提供更加科学合理的辅助决策产品.     

Field Signatures of the SE-Asian Mega-Tsunami along the West Coast of Thailand Compared to Holocene Paleo-Tsunami from the Atlantic Region

The Andaman-Sumatra Tsunami of Dec. 26, 2004, was by far the largest tsunami catastrophe in human history. An earthquake of 9 to 9.3 on the Richter scale, the extension of waves over more than 5000 km of ocean and run-ups up to 35 m are its key features. These characteristics suggest significant changes in coastal morphology and high sediment transport rates. A field survey along the west coast of Thailand (Phuket Island, Khao Lak region including some Similan Islands, Nang Pha mangrove areas and Phi Phi Don Islands) seven to nine weeks after the tsunami, however, discovered only small changes in coastal morphology and a limited amount of dislocated sediments, restricted to the lower meters of the tsunami waves. This is in striking contrast to many paleo-tsunami's events of the Atlantic region. Explanations for this discrepancy are sought in: a. Mechanics of the earthquake. A rather slow shock impulse on the water masses over the very long earthquake zone, b. Shallow water in the earthquake zone, and c. Bathymetry of the foreshore zone at the impacted sites. Shallow water west of Thailand has diminished wave energy significantly. The differences in geomorphological and sedimentological signatures of this tsunami compared with many paleo-tsunami worldwide makes it unsuitable to be used as a model for old and future tsunami imprints by an event of this extreme energy and extension.     

Evaluating Tsunami Hazard in the Northwestern Indian Ocean

We evaluate here the tsunami hazard in the northwestern Indian Ocean. The maximum regional earthquake calculated from seismic hazard analysis, was used as the characteristic earthquake for our tsunami hazard assessment. This earthquake, with a moment magnitude of M _w 8.3 and a return period of about 1000 years, was moved along the Makran subduction zone (MSZ) and its possible tsunami wave height along various coasts was calculated via numerical simulation. Both seismic hazard analysis and numerical modeling of the tsunami were validated using historical observations of the Makran earthquake and tsunami of the 1945. Results showed that the possible tsunami may reach a maximum height of 9.6 m in the region. The distribution of tsunami wave height along various coasts is presented. We recommend the development of a tsunami warning system in the region, and emphasize the value of education as a measure to mitigate the death toll of a possible tsunami in this region.     

Archaeomagnetic studies on some archaeological sites in Tamil Nadu, India

A new secular variation curve for the geomagnetic field intensity for the Tamil Nadu region, India, is obtained using bricks, potteries and tiles of known archaeological ages. The data were obtained with the aid of a large volume zero-field space and an improved version of the astatic magnetometer.

The secular variation curve can be used with advantage for archaeological dating. The ages of the recent excavations in Tamil Nadu — Kodumanal, Darasuram, Erukkur and Auroville are established in this way.     

地震海啸在东海大陆架上传播过程的数值模拟研究

在东海潜在震源区冲绳海槽假定了五个震源点,根据Steven地震海啸地震参数经验值作为初始条件,分别考虑6.5、7.0、7.5、8.0、8.5、9.0级地震条件下的30个震例,采用数值模拟的方法,对海啸在东海传播过程进行情境分析,特别是对上海沿岸地区可能会遭受的海啸灾害做了较为精细的研究.结果发现:小于8.0级的震例对上海地区几乎不会造成影响;8.0级震例只有最北端震源点震例会对上海地区有明显影响;8.5级以及9.0级震级基本上均会对上海沿岸地区造成较大的影响.特别是冲绳海槽北段9.0级震例可能会对上海沿岸局部地区造成危害,最大波高可达3.9m.     

Logic-tree Approach for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis and its Applications to the Japanese Coasts

For Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA), we propose a logic-tree approach to construct tsunami hazard curves (relationship between tsunami height and probability of exceedance) and present some examples for Japan for the purpose of quantitative assessments of tsunami risk for important coastal facilities. A hazard curve is obtained by integration over the aleatory uncertainties, and numerous hazard curves are obtained for different branches of logic-tree representing epistemic uncertainty. A PTHA consists of a tsunami source model and coastal tsunami height estimation. We developed the logic-tree models for local tsunami sources around Japan and for distant tsunami sources along the South American subduction zones. Logic-trees were made for tsunami source zones, size and frequency of tsunamigenic earthquakes, fault models, and standard error of estimated tsunami heights. Numerical simulation rather than empirical relation was used for estimating the median tsunami heights. Weights of discrete branches that represent alternative hypotheses and interpretations were determined by the questionnaire survey for tsunami and earthquake experts, whereas those representing the error of estimated value were determined on the basis of historical data. Examples of tsunami hazard curves were illustrated for the coastal sites, and uncertainty in the tsunami hazard was displayed by 5-, 16-, 50-, 84- and 95-percentile and mean hazard curves.     

The 11 March 2011 East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami: Tsunami Effects on Coastal Infrastructure and Buildings

The 11 March 2011 East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami caused unprecedented damage to well-engineered buildings and coastal structures. This report presents some notable field observations of structural damage based on our surveys conducted along the Sanriku coast in April and June 2011. Engineered reinforced concrete buildings failed by rotation due to the high-velocity and deep tsunami inundation: entrapped air in the buildings and soil liquefaction by ground shaking could have contributed to the failure. The spatial distribution pattern of destroyed and survived buildings indicates that the strength of tsunami was affected significantly by the locations of well-engineered sturdy buildings: weaker buildings in the shadow zone tended to survive while jet and wake formations behind the sturdy buildings enhanced the tsunami forces. We also found that buildings with breakaway walls or breakaway windows/doors remained standing even if the surrounding buildings were washed away or destroyed. Several failure patterns of coastal structures (seawalls) were observed. Flow-induced suction pressure near the seawall crown could have caused the failure of concrete panels that covered the infill. Remarkable destruction of upright solid-concrete type seawalls was closely related with the tsunami induced scour and soil instability. The rapid decrease in inundation depth during the return-flow phase caused soil fluidization down to a substantial depth. This mechanism explains severely undermined roads and foundations observed in the area of low flow velocities.     

Best-fit distribution and log-normality for tsunami heights along coastal lines

The best-fit distribution of the tsunami height was investigated along the Eastern Coast of Korean Peninsula. Firstly, the tsunami heights corresponding to the nine probable undersea earthquakes were obtained along the coastline using the numerical simulation. The method of L-moment ratio diagram was used to identify the best-fit probability density function of the tsunami heights caused by each undersea earthquake. The result indicates the generalized Pareto distribution is the best-fit distribution representing the tsunami heights regardless of the characteristics of the undersea earthquakes. This is particularly because the area of high tsunami heights and its relative magnitude to the adjacent locations were similar for the most simulations cases. In addition, this study further investigated the reason why the tsunami height distribution is not represented by the log-normal (LN) distribution as suggested by the previous studies. Result of the investigation indicates that the log-normality of the tsunami heights can be preserved when the length of a coastal line is not long such that the homogeneity of the length of the wave propagation paths reaching at different locations of the coastal line is preserved. This subsequently secures the central limit theorem making the distribution of the tsunami heights have the LN distribution. As the length of the coastal line increases, the deviation of the tsunami height distribution from the log-normality increases.     

基于强震台网的我国沿海海啸走时预警

经济快速发展的中国沿海地区,面临着潜在海啸袭击危险。海啸传播走时分析是海啸预警系统的重要组成部分。本文基于强震台网提供的地震要素,从理论上讨论海啸预警时间计算方法。在球坐标系下,建立了远洋海啸传播模型,采用差分技术,实现远洋海啸传播数值模拟,首次针对我国主要城市进行了海啸走时计算,分析了我国沿海走时特点,指出了未来发生在太平洋的远洋海啸对我国的长江三角洲会有较大影响。本文计算海啸走时方法可以为我国建设的新一代基于数值海啸预警系统提供技术支持。     

2010年智利地震海啸数值模拟及其对我国沿海的影响分析

2010年2月27日06时34分(北京时间14时34分),在智利中南部近岸(36.1°S,72.6°W)发生Mw8.8级地震,并引发了泛太平洋范围的海啸,太平洋沿岸多个国家的验潮站和海啸监测浮标均监测到了强震引发的海啸;海啸波传播25 h后到达我国沿海.本文利用海啸数值模型对此次地震海啸进行了数值模拟.重点模拟了我国沿...     

Combined Effects of Tectonic and Landslide-Generated Tsunami Runup at Seward, Alaska During the M W 9.2 1964 Earthquake

We apply a recently developed and validated numerical model of tsunami propagation and runup to study the inundation of Resurrection Bay and the town of Seward by the 1964 Alaska tsunami. Seward was hit by both tectonic and landslide-generated tsunami waves during the $M_{\rm W}$ 9.2 1964 megathrust earthquake. The earthquake triggered a series of submarine mass failures around the fjord, which resulted in landsliding of part of the coastline into the water, along with the loss of the port facilities. These submarine mass failures generated local waves in the bay within 5?min of the beginning of strong ground motion. Recent studies estimate the total volume of underwater slide material that moved in Resurrection Bay to be about 211?million m³ (Haeussler et?al. in Submarine mass movements and their consequences, pp 269?C278, 2007). The first tectonic tsunami wave arrived in Resurrection Bay about 30?min after the main shock and was about the same height as the local landslide-generated waves. Our previous numerical study, which focused only on the local landslide-generated waves in Resurrection Bay, demonstrated that they were produced by a number of different slope failures, and estimated relative contributions of different submarine slide complexes into tsunami amplitudes (Suleimani et?al. in Pure Appl Geophys 166:131?C152, 2009). This work extends the previous study by calculating tsunami inundation in Resurrection Bay caused by the combined impact of landslide-generated waves and the tectonic tsunami, and comparing the composite inundation area with observations. To simulate landslide tsunami runup in Seward, we use a viscous slide model of Jiang and LeBlond (J Phys Oceanogr 24(3):559?C572, 1994) coupled with nonlinear shallow water equations. The input data set includes a high resolution multibeam bathymetry and LIDAR topography grid of Resurrection Bay, and an initial thickness of slide material based on pre- and post-earthquake bathymetry difference maps. For simulation of tectonic tsunami runup, we derive the 1964 coseismic deformations from detailed slip distribution in the rupture area, and use them as an initial condition for propagation of the tectonic tsunami. The numerical model employs nonlinear shallow water equations formulated for depth-averaged water fluxes, and calculates a temporal position of the shoreline using a free-surface moving boundary algorithm. We find that the calculated tsunami runup in Seward caused first by local submarine landslide-generated waves, and later by a tectonic tsunami, is in good agreement with observations of the inundation zone. The analysis of inundation caused by two different tsunami sources improves our understanding of their relative contributions, and supports tsunami risk mitigation in south-central Alaska. The record of the 1964 earthquake, tsunami, and submarine landslides, combined with the high-resolution topography and bathymetry of Resurrection Bay make it an ideal location for studying tectonic tsunamis in coastal regions susceptible to underwater landslides.     

Field Measurements and Numerical Simulations of the 2004 Tsunami Impact on the East Coast of Sri Lanka

This paper employs a numerical model of tsunami propagation together with documented observations and field measurements of the evidence left behind by the tsunami in December 2004, to identify and interpret the factors that have contributed to the significant spatial variability of the level of tsunami impact along the coastal belt of the eastern province of Sri Lanka. The model results considered in the present analysis include the distribution of the amplitude of the tsunami and the pattern of wave propagation over the continental shelf off the east coast, while the field data examined comprise the maximum water levels measured at or near the shoreline, the horizontal inundation distances and the number of housing and other buildings damaged. The computed maximum amplitude of the tsunami at water points nearest the shoreline along the east coast shows considerable variation ranging from 2.2 m to 11.4 m with a mean value of 5.7 m; moreover, the computed amplitudes agree well with the available field measurements. We also show that the shelf bathymetry off the east coast, particularly the submarine canyons at several locations, significantly influences the near-shore transformation of tsunami waves, and consequently, the spatial variation of the maximum water levels along the coastline. The measured values of inundation also show significant variation along the east coast and range from 70 m to 4560 m with a median value of 700 m. Our analyses of field data also show the dominant influence of the coastal topography and geomorphology on the extent of tsunami inundation. Furthermore, the measured inundation distances indicate no apparent correlation with the computed tsunami heights at the respective locations. We also show that both the computed tsunami heights and the measured inundation distances for the east coast closely follow the log-normal statistical distribution.     

山东沿海地区地震海啸研究

地震海啸是一种极其严重的地震次生灾害。山东是世界上最早记录地震海啸的地区。收集整理了山东沿海地区记载的7次地震海啸史料,对每次地震海啸进行了信度评级,认为仅有一次可能是海啸。根据山东沿海地区历史地震海啸、地震类型、沿海地理环境、现代地震海啸记录资料等分析,表明山东沿海未来遭受破坏性地震海啸的可能性较小。     

Tsunami hazard in the shorelines of Khark island (Persian Gulf), Iran

Iran is located in one of the seismically active regions of the world. Due to the high probability of earthquakes throughout the country and the potential for tsunami inundation along the coasts and offshore, comprehensive studies on the interaction of these natural phenomena are necessary. In this study, the most conservative scenarios are determined for possible earthquakes within the Khark zone (Persian Gulf) based on experimental relations between the fault length, magnitude and displacement, which are parameters for determining tsunamigenic sources. Subsequently, the maximum height of tsunami waves are calculated based on the specifications of the seismic source and its distance from the shore as well as the coastal slope. A zoning map of tsunami hazard is finally presented.     

1604年泉州海外大地震及其海啸影响分析

由于史料记载的模糊和局限性, 1604年泉州海外8级大地震是否引发地震海啸灾难, 一直是有争议的。 该文从这次地震历史资料的辨别、 考证和分析研究认为, 泉州海外大地震并未引发地震海啸产生的显著灾害。 在相关的史料与台湾海峡发震构造的分析基础上, 通过潜在海啸源的鉴别以及海啸源参数的确定, 对泉州滨海断裂和台湾海峡浅滩南缘海啸源进行数值模拟计算。 在计算过程中, 利用了1994年台湾海峡浅滩南缘地震的海啸波验潮站资料, 对计算模型和方法进行了检验。 1604年泉州海外大地震的潜在海啸源(滨海断裂)的数值计算结果表明, 海啸波对泉州湾沿岸的增减水效应不足以造成灾难性的影响, 因此也为1604年泉州海外大地震未引发灾难性的海啸提供了新的证据。     

Tsunami damage to coastal defences and buildings in the March 11th 2011 M w 9.0 Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami

On March 11th 2011 a M _w 9.0 mega-thrust interface subduction earthquake, the Great East Japan Earthquake, occurred 130 km off the northeast coast of Japan in the Pacific Ocean at the Japan Trench, triggering tsunami which caused damage along 600 km of coastline. Observations of damage to buildings (including vertical evacuation facilities) and coastal defences in Tōhoku are presented following investigation by the Earthquake Engineering Field Investigation Team (EEFIT) at 10 locations in Iwate and Miyagi Prefectures. Observations are presented in the context of the coastal setting and tsunami characteristics experienced at each location. Damage surveys were carried out in Kamaishi City and Kesennuma City using a damage scale for reinforced concrete (RC), timber and steel frame buildings adapted from an earlier EEFIT tsunami damage scale. Observations show that many sea walls and breakwaters were overtopped, overturned, or broken up, but provided some degree of protection. We show the extreme variability of damage in a local area due to inundation depth, flow direction, velocity variations and sheltering. Survival of many RC shear wall structures shows their high potential to withstand local earthquake and significant tsunami inundation but further research is required into mitigation of scour, liquefaction, debris impact, and the prevention of overturning failure. Damage to steel and timber buildings are also discussed. These observations are intended to contribute to mitigation of future earthquake and tsunami damage by highlighting the key features which influence damage level and local variability of damage sustained by urban coastal infrastructure when subjected to extreme tsunami inundation depths.     

Introduction to “Tsunami Science Four Years After the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, Part II: Observation and Data Analysis”

In this introduction we briefly summarize the fourteen contributions to Part II of this special issue on Tsunami Science Four Years After the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami. These papers are representative of the new tsunami science being conducted since the occurrence of that tragic event. Most of these were presented at the session: Tsunami Generation and Hazard, of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics XXIV General Assembly held at Perugia, Italy, in July of 2007. That session included over one hundred presentations on a wide range of topics in tsunami research. The papers grouped into Part II, and introduced here, cover field observations of recent tsunami’s, modern studies of historical events, coastal sea-level observations and case studies in tsunami data analysis.