The long-term salinity field in San Francisco Bay

Data are presented on long-term salinity behaviour in San Francisco Bay, California. A two-level, width averaged model of the tidally averaged salinity and circulation has been written in order to interpret the long-term (days to decades) salinity variability. The model has been used to simulate daily averaged salinity in the upper and lower levels of a 51 segment discretization of the Bay over the 22-yr period 1967–1988. Monthly averaged surface salinity from observations and monthly-averaged simulated salinity are in reasonable agreement. Good agreement is obtained from comparison with daily averaged salinity measured in the upper reaches of North Bay.The salinity variability is driven primarily by freshwater inflow with relatively minor oceanic influence. All stations exhibit a marked seasonal cycle in accordance with the Mediterranean climate, as well as a rich spectrum of variability due to extreme inflow events and extended periods of drought. Monthly averaged salinity intrusion positions have a pronounced seasonal variability and show an approximately linear response to the logarithm of monthly averaged Delta inflow. Although few observed data are available for studies of long-term salinity stratification, modelled stratification is found to be strongly dependent on freshwater inflow; the nature of that dependence varies throughout the Bay. Near the Golden Gate, stratification tends to increase up to very high inflows. In the central reaches of North Bay, modelled stratification maximizes as a function of inflow and further inflow reduces stratification. Near the head of North Bay, lowest summer inflows are associated with the greatest modelled stratification. Observations from the central reaches of North Bay show marked spring-neap variations in stratification and gravitational circulation, both being stronger at neap tides. This spring-neap variation is simulated by the model. A feature of the modelled stratification is a hysteresis in which, for a given spring-neap tidal range and fairly steady inflows, the stratification is higher progressing from neaps to springs than from springs to neaps.The simulated responses of the Bay to perturbations in coastal sea salinity and Delta inflow have been used to further delineate the time-scales of salinity variability. Simulations have been performed about low inflow, steady-state conditions for both salinity and Delta inflow perturbations. For salinity perturbations a small, sinusoidal salinity signal with a period of 1 yr has been applied at the coastal boundary as well as a pulse of salinity with a duration of one day. For Delta inflow perturbations a small, sinusoidally varying inflow signal with a period of 1 yr has been superimposed on an otherwise constant Delta inflow, as well as a pulse of inflow with a duration of one day. Perturbations in coastal salinity dissipate as they move through the Bay. Seasonal perturbations require about 40–45 days to propagate from the coastal ocean to the Delta and to the head of South Bay. The response times of the model to perturbations in freshwater inflow are faster than this in North Bay and comparable in South Bay. In North Bay, time-scales are consistent with advection due to lower level, up-estuary transport of coastal salinity perturbations; for inflow perturbations, faster response times arise from both upper level, down-estuary advection and much faster, down-estuary migration of isohalines in response to inflow volume continuity. In South Bay, the dominant time-scales are governed by tidal dispersion.     

Asymmetric deformation across the San Francisco Bay Area faults from GPS observations in Northern California

We show that geodetic data from the Bay Area Regional Deformation (BARD) network indicate asymmetric motion across the San Andreas fault in the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA), resulting from a strong contrast in rigidity across the fault, as determined previously from seismological data. Assuming asymmetric motion across the fault, we determine the location and size of the maximum strain rate in the region. We find that, compared to the determination using a symmetric model of deformation, it is shifted eastward and its value increases from ～0.4 μstrain/yr to ～0.65 μstrain/yr. Such strain rate amplitudes are consistent with previous geodetic slip rate estimates. We confirm that the geological units located east of SAF are entrained by the motion of the Pacific Plate and that the San Andreas fault (SAF) is the real rheological limit between the Pacific and North-American Plates. The asymmetry of rheology constrained in this study implies the strain rate maximum in SFBA is likely located between SAF and the Hayward fault system. This also has implications for hazards in the northern SFBA, in particular on the Rodgers creek fault.     

Empirical model of Skeletonema costatum photosynthetic rate,with applications in the San Francisco Bay estuary

An empirical model of Skeletonema costatum photosynthetic rate is developed and fit to measurements of photosynthesis selected from the literature. Because the model acknowledges existence of: 1) a light-temperature interaction (by allowing optimum irradiance to vary with temperature), 2) light inhibition, 3) temperature inhibition, and 4) a salinity effect, it accurately estimates photosynthetic rates measured over a wide range of temperature, light intensity, and salinity. Integration of predicted instantaneous rate of photosynthesis with time and depth yields daily net carbon assimilation (pg C cell^?1 day^?1) in a mixed layer of specified depth, when salinity, temperature, daily irradiance and extinction coefficient are known. The assumption of constant carbon quota (pg C cell^?1) allows for prediction of mean specific growth rate (day^?1), which can be used in numerical models of Skeletonema costatum population dynamics.Application of the model to northern San Francisco Bay clearly demonstrates the limitation of growth by low light availability, and suggests that large population densities of S. costatum observed during summer months are not the result of active growth in the central deep channels (where growth rates are consistently predicted to be negative). But predicted growth rates in the lateral shallows are positive during summer and fall, thus offering a testable hypothesis that shoals are the only sites of active population growth by S. costatum (and perhaps other neritic diatoms) in the northern reach of San Francisco Bay.     

Source mechanism of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake

Surface-wave amplitudes in the period range 50–100 s at eight European and North American stations, horizontal slip profiles along the rupture zone and the timing of certain events along the fault during rupture time are all engaged in unison to reconstruct the motion at the source. A modified source model is used to accommodate a moving rupture with variable dislocation in the direction of propagation.It is inferred that the rupture started at about 13 h 11 m 55 s GMT near San Juan Bautista and propagated unilaterally northwestward along N35°W over 400 km with an average rupture velocity of 3.5 km/s. At 13 h 12 m 12 s, the dynamic shear front, moving with the rupture speed, hit the Lick Observatory. Then, at 13 h 12 m 18 s, the rupture arrived to the vicinity of the epicenter in the Santa Cruz Mountains given by B. Bolt. There the slip changed sharply from an average of 0.5 m to a high value of 3 m causing extensive landslides and avalanches. At 13 h 12 m 32.5 s two railroad clocks at San Rafael were stopped. Finally, at 13 h 12 m 36 s the offset front hit the Naval Observatory at Mare Island and stopped the astronomical clocks there. Conspicuous surface waves, visible on Wiechert seismograms in Europe in the period range 55–65 s, reflect the true rupture time.The seismic data inversion yields an effective radiation source some 240 km long with an average vertical extent of some 34 km over a total fault length of 400 km ($\text{U}\text{d}\text{S ? 29,000}\text{m km}{}^2\text{or}\text{μ}\text{U}\text{d}\text{S ? 9 · 10}{}^{27}\text{dyn cm}$). It began at the Santa Cruz Mountains and ended some 20 km off coast Point Arena. Thus, due to the nonuniform slip profile, only $\text{3}\text{5}$ of the total fracture length contributed to the far radiation field.Although the product of the average source displacement (over the entire fault) and the vertical extent appears to be fairly well determined from the surface-wave spectrums, the separate values of these entities cannot be uniquely determined. If the average surface displacements (～ 3.2 m) are diagnostic of the entire fault, a vertical extent of H = 34 km is required.Finally, a new analysis of surface waves from the Alaska earthquake of July 10, 1958, the Queen Charlotte Islands earthquake of August 22, 1949 and the Kern County shock of July 21, 1952, enables us to draw parallels between the three biggest major events which occurred along the NE Pacific coast during 1906–1958. A common feature of all of these earthquakes is that vertical failure extents of 30–40 km are implied.     

Surveillance for previously unmonitored organic contaminants in the San Francisco Estuary

The San Francisco Estuary Regional Monitoring Program initiated surveillance monitoring to identify previously unmonitored synthetic organic contaminants in the San Francisco Estuary. Organic extracts of water samples were analyzed using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry in full scan mode. The major contaminant classes identified in the samples were fire retardants, pesticides, personal care product ingredients, and plasticizers. Evidence from the literature suggests that some of these contaminants can persist in the environment, induce toxicity, and accumulate in marine biota and in higher food chain consumers. The major sources of these contaminants into the marine environment are the discharge of municipal and industrial wastewater effluents, urban stormwater, and agricultural runoff. As a proactive effort, it is suggested that surveillance studies be used routinely in monitoring programs to identify and prevent potential problem contaminants from harming the marine environment.     

The 1914 Earthquake in the Altai Region

The data on the earthquakes of April 13 and 25, 1914 in Altai from (Novyi katalog…, 1977) have been summarized. Based on an analysis of the earlier publications and the new data from the initial sources, it has been shown that the only seismic event occurred on April 25 (12 old style), 1914. The weak differentiation of macroseismic effects over the area does not allow us to reliably locate the epicenter; the best spatial accuracy is ±50 km. Based on the entire data volume, the magnitude is estimated at 5.5 ± 0.3 which is slightly higher than was believed earlier.     

Earthquake Potential in the Zagros Region,Iran

Seismic strain and b value are used to quantify seismic potential in the Zagros region (Iran). Small b values (0.69 and 0.69) are related to large seismic moment rates (9.96×10¹⁷ and 4.12×10¹⁷) in southern zones of the Zagros, indicating more frequent large earthquakes. Medium to large b values (0.72 and 0.92) are related to small seismic moment rates (2.94×10¹⁶ and 6.80×10¹⁶) in middle zones of the Zagros, indicating less frequent large earthquakes. Small b value (0.64) is related to medium seismic moment rate (1.38×10¹⁷) in middle to northern zone of the Zagros, indicating frequent large earthquakes. Large b value (0.87) is related to large seismic moment rate (2.29×10¹⁷) in northwestern zone, indicating more frequent large earthquakes. Recurrence intervals of large earthquakes (M > 6) are short in southern (10 and 14 years) and northwestern (13 years) zones, while the recurrence intervals are long in the middle (46 and 114 years) and middle to northern (25 years) zones.     

Electromagnetic induction in the San Juan Bay region of Vancouver Island

The response of the electric and magnetic field variations over the San Juan Bay region of Vancouver Island is studied using a scaled laboratory analogue model. The laboratory frequencies simulate periods of 10 and 100 s in the geophysical problem. The model results indicate that, for both E- and H-polarization of the source field, induced current in the ocean is deflected around Cape Flattery and channelled into the Juan de Fuca Strait. With increasing period, the proportion of current channelled into the Strait decreases sharply. Induced current in the strait is also funnelled into San Juan Bay, a finger-shaped bay ca. 4 km wide and 7.5 km long, for both polarizations of the source field. The effect of the Bay on the field response is confined to the local region, within approximately 6 km of the centre of the Bay. Good agreement between field station and analogue model H_z results was obtained for the San Juan Bay. The behaviour of the Parkinson arrow for these two stations is examined with the aid of the analogue model results.     

2011年缅甸7.2级地震及震后云南强震趋势分析

系统收集了缅甸7.2级地震前后地震学基础资料,对缅甸地震地震地质、震源机制、烈度分布、发震构造、区域应力场、震源参数、地震灾害及地震序列时空分布进行详细分析,尤其对人们较为关切的缅甸地震后云南的强震形势进行了详细分析讨论,得到的认识对今后地震预测预报工作具有较大现实意义.     

Interplate Earthquake Fault Slip During Periodic Earthquake Cycles in a Viscoelastic Medium at a Subduction Zone

--A 2-D finite-element-method (FEM) numerical experiment of earthquake cycles at a subduction zone is performed to investigate the effect of viscoelasticity of the earth on great interplate earthquake fault slip. We construct a 2-D viscoelastic FEM model of northeast Japan, which consists of an elastic upper crust and a viscoelastic mantle wedge under gravitation overlying the subducting elastic Pacific plate. Instead of the dislocation model prescribing an amount of slip on a plate interface, we define an earthquake cycle, in which the plate interface down to a depth is locked during an interseismic period and unlocked during coseismic and postseismic periods by changing the friction on the boundary with the master-slave method. This earthquake cycle with steady plate subduction is periodically repeated to calculate the resultant earthquake fault slip.¶As simulated in a previous study (Wang, 1995), the amount of fault slip at the first earthquake cycle is smaller than the total relative plate motion. This small amount of fault slip in the viscoelastic medium was considered to be one factor explaining the small seismic coupling observed at several subduction zones. Our simulation, however, shows that the fault slip grows with an increasing number of repeated earthquake cycles and reaches an amount comparable to the total relative plate motion after more than ten earthquake cycles. This new finding indicates that the viscoelasticity of the earth is not the main factor in explaining the observed small seismic coupling. In comparison with a simple one-degree-of-freedom experiment, we demonstrate that the increase of the fault slip occurs in the transient state from the relaxed initial state to the stressed equilibrium state due to the intermittent plate loading in a viscoelastic medium.     

豫北地区地震活动性研究

利用豫北地区1485年至今M≥4.7级地震和1970年以来ML≥3.0级地震资料,采用了地震活动韵律、6级地震的减震效应、P轴方向变化等方法,对豫北地区,特别是聊兰地震带近几年地震活动特点进行了分析,并剖析了其与1983年菏泽6.0级地震震前异常的差异。     

Slip- and Time-dependent Fault Constitutive Law and its Significance in Earthquake Generation Cycles

-- By integrating effects of microscopic interactions between statistically self-similar fault surfaces, we succeeded in deriving a slip- and time-dependent fault constitutive law that rationally unifies the slip-dependent law and the rate- and state-dependent law. In this constitutive law the slip-weakening results from the abrasion of surface asperities that proceeds irreversibly with fault slip. On the other hand, the restoration of shear strength after the arrest of faulting results from the adhesion of surface asperities that proceeds with contact time. At the limit of high slip-rate the unified constitutive law is reduced to the slip-weakening law. At the limit of low slip-rate it shows the well-known log t strengthening of faults over the wide range of contact time t. In the steady state with a constant slip-rate V the shear strength has the negative log V dependence, known as the velocity-weakening. Another important property expected from the unified constitutive law is the gradual increase of the critical weakening displacement D_c with stationary contact time. We numerically examined behavior of a single degree of freedom elastic system following the slip- and time-dependent constitutive law, and found that the periodic stick-slip motion is realized when the adhesion rate is high in comparison with the loading rate. If the adhesion rate is very low, behavior of the system gradually changes from stick-slip motion to steady sliding with time.     

海地地震发生在构造复杂的地震活动带

北京时间2010年1月13日5时53分（当地时间2010年1月12日16时53分）,加勒比岛国海地发生7．3级地震（震中18．5°N,72．5°W）,首都太子港及全国大部分地区受灾情况严重,大片建筑物倒塌,死亡人数不断攀升。这场地震是海地自1770年以来遭遇的最强地震,     

Study on Crustal Structure in Haiyuan Strong Earthquake Region

INTRODUCTIONXIJI－Halyuan－Zhon驯el region Is a well－known eaythquake－prone one In China．From 876 to1989,IOrty－five earthquakes with M。34．7 occurred In and around the。glon(Ma Xingyuan,et al,1989)．Seismic activity In this area Is evidently cha。cterized by large matlnltude and high frequency．The 1920 Haiyuan earthquake(M＝8．5)happened nght In this region,which caused a seriousdisaster and had a wide－ranging effect seldom seen worldwide．For the years,lots of…     

华南地震区的某些丛集特性

对东南沿海地区54次中强以上地震(Ms≥43/4级以上地震)的时间间隔序列,计算了时间变异系数δ值,利用δ值研究地震的丛集特性;从1943年至今的时间变异系数计算结果为1.2,说明该时间段明显处于丛集状态.对东南沿海地震带通过有序样品序列聚类分析得出了较为合理四个地震活跃幕的划分结果,各个活跃幕地震的累积频次与发震系统内部时间的关系基本符合N=ctd.四个活跃幕的非线性时间结构演化幂指数d变化范围分布在0.6到0.8左右.Ms6.0以上的强震也基本符合该关系式.只是其活跃幕演化幂指数d为0.47.     

Physics-Based 3-D Simulation for Earthquake Generation Cycles at Plate Interfaces in Subduction Zones

The generation of interplate earthquakes can be regarded as a process of tectonic stress accumulation and release, driven by relative plate motion. We completed a physics-based simulation system for earthquake generation cycles at plate interfaces in the Japan region, where the Pacific plate is descending beneath the North American and Philippine Sea plates, and the Philippine Sea plate is descending beneath the North American and Eurasian plates. The system is composed of a quasi-static tectonic loading model and a dynamic rupture propagation model, developed on a realistic 3-D plate interface model. The driving force of the system is relative plate motion. In the quasi-static tectonic loading model, mechanical interaction at plate interfaces is rationally represented by the increase of tangential displacement discontinuity (fault slip) across them on the basis of dislocation theory for an elastic surface layer overlying Maxwell-type viscoelastic half-space. In the dynamic rupture propagation model, stress changes due to fault slip motion on non-planar plate interfaces are evaluated with the boundary integral equation method. The progress of seismic (dynamic) or aseismic (quasi-static) fault slip on plate interfaces is governed by a slip- and time-dependent fault constitutive law. As an example, we numerically simulated earthquake generation cycles at the source region of the 1968 Tokachi-oki earthquake on the North American-Pacific plate interface. From the numerical simulation, we can see that postseismic stress relaxation in the asthenosphere accelerates stress accumulation in the source region. When the stress state of the source region is close to a critical level, dynamic rupture is rapidly accelerated and develops over the whole source region. When the stress state is much lower than the critical level, the rupture is not accelerated. This means that the stress state realized by interseismic tectonic loading essentially controls the subsequent dynamic rupture process.     

Analysis of Shallow and Deep Earthquake Doublets in the Fiji-Tonga-Kermadec Region

For the Fiji-Tonga-Kermadec area and for the period from January 1977 to July 2003, the Harvard CMT catalogue lists 1022 shallow, 410 intermediate and 633 deep earthquakes of moment magnitude from 4.9 to 8.0. The magnitude threshold, above which the catalogue is complete, is 5.3–5.4, and the number of earthquakes of magnitude above this value is 691 for shallow, 329 for intermediate and 476 for deep events, respectively. The proportion of earthquakes associated with doublets and multiplets against the total number of earthquakes is approximately the same in both data sets and therefore all earthquake pairs were considered regardless of their magnitude. We investigated all the pairs of earthquakes that occurred at a centroid distance of less than 40, 60 or 90 km from each other and within a time interval of 200, 300 or 450 days, depending on their magnitude. We found 208 pairs of shallow, 31 of intermediate and 92 of deep events. To ascertain whether these earthquakes in pairs are not connected by chance, the possibility of their occurrence in an uncorrelated Poissonian catalogue was considered. It was assumed that in such a catalogue the inter-event time is exponentially distributed, the earthquake magnitude follows the Gutenberg-Richter relation, and the distribution of centroid distances between the events in pairs is controlled by its non-parametric kernel estimate. The probability of the appearance of the observed proportion of doublets of shallow earthquakes in the Poissonian catalogue was found to be very low. The low probability of occurrence in a semi-random catalogue, created by randomising centroid locations in the actual data set, also indicates major importance of the distance criterion used for a doublet specification. In general, shallow earthquakes tend to form pairs at shorter distances and within shorter time intervals than deep earthquakes. Both the distance and the time intervals do not depend on the magnitude of involved events. The largest number of pairs of deep earthquakes is observed at a depth of about 600 km, and the proportion of deep events associated with doublets against the number of all events increases with depth. From comparison of the focal mechanism of earthquakes in pairs, measured by the 3-D rotation angle, it follows that deep earthquakes forming pairs have a more diverse focal mechanism than shallow events; the rotation angle for three quarters of shallow pairs and only for about one third of deep pairs is reasonably small. The azimuth between two events forming a doublet is in about 60–65% of cases close to the strike of one of nodal planes of the first or the second event.     

俄、蒙、中交界M7.9地震特征

2003年9月27日19点33分，在俄、蒙、中交界地区的俄罗斯境内发生了M7．9地震，之后在同一地区又相继发生了M6．9、7．3两次强余震。在其后的一个多月时间内，5级左右余震不断，新疆阿勒泰地区强烈有感，乌鲁木齐、石河子、克拉玛依等地普遍有感。地震使边境     

Study on the Attenuation Features of Earthquake Intensity in the Yunnan Region

This research on the attenuation features of intensity in the Yunnan region has been conducted by using intensity isoseismals of 127 earthquakes, and the following three conclusions have been put forward : ( 1 ) The average ratio value of long axis to short axis of innermost isoseismals in the Yunnan region is larger than that of eastern China and smaller than that of western China.The velocity of intensity attenuation varies in different directions; (2) The zoning feature of intensity attenuation in the Yunnan region is obvious; (3) In Northwest China and North China, the ratios of long axis to short axis of low-magnitude isoseismals are larger than those of high magnitude ones. Compared with that phenomenon, the ratios in the Yunnan region are more complicated. Finally, some relevant questions are discussed.