The long-term salinity field in San Francisco Bay

Data are presented on long-term salinity behaviour in San Francisco Bay, California. A two-level, width averaged model of the tidally averaged salinity and circulation has been written in order to interpret the long-term (days to decades) salinity variability. The model has been used to simulate daily averaged salinity in the upper and lower levels of a 51 segment discretization of the Bay over the 22-yr period 1967–1988. Monthly averaged surface salinity from observations and monthly-averaged simulated salinity are in reasonable agreement. Good agreement is obtained from comparison with daily averaged salinity measured in the upper reaches of North Bay.The salinity variability is driven primarily by freshwater inflow with relatively minor oceanic influence. All stations exhibit a marked seasonal cycle in accordance with the Mediterranean climate, as well as a rich spectrum of variability due to extreme inflow events and extended periods of drought. Monthly averaged salinity intrusion positions have a pronounced seasonal variability and show an approximately linear response to the logarithm of monthly averaged Delta inflow. Although few observed data are available for studies of long-term salinity stratification, modelled stratification is found to be strongly dependent on freshwater inflow; the nature of that dependence varies throughout the Bay. Near the Golden Gate, stratification tends to increase up to very high inflows. In the central reaches of North Bay, modelled stratification maximizes as a function of inflow and further inflow reduces stratification. Near the head of North Bay, lowest summer inflows are associated with the greatest modelled stratification. Observations from the central reaches of North Bay show marked spring-neap variations in stratification and gravitational circulation, both being stronger at neap tides. This spring-neap variation is simulated by the model. A feature of the modelled stratification is a hysteresis in which, for a given spring-neap tidal range and fairly steady inflows, the stratification is higher progressing from neaps to springs than from springs to neaps.The simulated responses of the Bay to perturbations in coastal sea salinity and Delta inflow have been used to further delineate the time-scales of salinity variability. Simulations have been performed about low inflow, steady-state conditions for both salinity and Delta inflow perturbations. For salinity perturbations a small, sinusoidal salinity signal with a period of 1 yr has been applied at the coastal boundary as well as a pulse of salinity with a duration of one day. For Delta inflow perturbations a small, sinusoidally varying inflow signal with a period of 1 yr has been superimposed on an otherwise constant Delta inflow, as well as a pulse of inflow with a duration of one day. Perturbations in coastal salinity dissipate as they move through the Bay. Seasonal perturbations require about 40–45 days to propagate from the coastal ocean to the Delta and to the head of South Bay. The response times of the model to perturbations in freshwater inflow are faster than this in North Bay and comparable in South Bay. In North Bay, time-scales are consistent with advection due to lower level, up-estuary transport of coastal salinity perturbations; for inflow perturbations, faster response times arise from both upper level, down-estuary advection and much faster, down-estuary migration of isohalines in response to inflow volume continuity. In South Bay, the dominant time-scales are governed by tidal dispersion.     

Spatial correlation of shear-wave velocity in the San Francisco Bay Area sediments

Ground motions recorded within sedimentary basins are variable over short distances. One important cause of the variability is that local soil properties are variable at all scales. Regional hazard maps developed for predicting site effects are generally derived from maps of surficial geology; however, recent studies have shown that mapped geologic units do not correlate well with the average shear-wave velocity of the upper 30 m, V_s(30). We model the horizontal variability of near-surface soil shear-wave velocity in the San Francisco Bay Area to estimate values in unsampled locations in order to account for site effects in a continuous manner. Previous geostatistical studies of soil properties have shown horizontal correlations at the scale of meters to tens of meters while the vertical correlations are on the order of centimeters. In this paper we analyze shear-wave velocity data over regional distances and find that surface shear-wave velocity is correlated at horizontal distances up to 4 km based on data from seismic cone penetration tests and the spectral analysis of surface waves. We propose a method to map site effects by using geostatistical methods based on the shear-wave velocity correlation structure within a sedimentary basin. If used in conjunction with densely spaced shear-wave velocity profiles in regions of high seismic risk, geostatistical methods can produce reliable continuous maps of site effects.     

Contaminant concentrations in sport fish from San Francisco Bay, 1997

In 1997, seven sport fish species were sampled from seven popular fishing areas in San Francisco Bay. Mercury exceeded a human health screening value in 44 of 84 (52%) samples. All collected samples of leopard shark and striped bass exceeded the mercury screening value of 0.23 microg/g wet weight. PCBs exceeded the screening value in 51 of 72 (71%) samples. DDT, chlordane, and dieldrin, had lower numbers of samples above screening values: 16 of 72 (22%) for DDT, 11 of 72 (15%) for chlordanes, and 27 of 72 (37%) for dieldrin. Concentrations of PCBs and other trace organics were highest in white croaker and shiner surfperch, the two species with the highest fat content in their muscle tissue. Fish from one location, Oakland Harbor, had significantly elevated wet weight concentrations of mercury, PCBs, DDTs, and chlordanes compared to other locations. Removal of skin from white croaker fillets reduced lipid concentrations by 27-49% and concentrations of trace organics by 33-40%.     

Asymmetric deformation across the San Francisco Bay Area faults from GPS observations in Northern California

We show that geodetic data from the Bay Area Regional Deformation (BARD) network indicate asymmetric motion across the San Andreas fault in the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA), resulting from a strong contrast in rigidity across the fault, as determined previously from seismological data. Assuming asymmetric motion across the fault, we determine the location and size of the maximum strain rate in the region. We find that, compared to the determination using a symmetric model of deformation, it is shifted eastward and its value increases from ～0.4 μstrain/yr to ～0.65 μstrain/yr. Such strain rate amplitudes are consistent with previous geodetic slip rate estimates. We confirm that the geological units located east of SAF are entrained by the motion of the Pacific Plate and that the San Andreas fault (SAF) is the real rheological limit between the Pacific and North-American Plates. The asymmetry of rheology constrained in this study implies the strain rate maximum in SFBA is likely located between SAF and the Hayward fault system. This also has implications for hazards in the northern SFBA, in particular on the Rodgers creek fault.     

The interannual variabilities of chlorophyll and nutrients in San Francisco Bay: a modeling study

Ocean Dynamics - San Francisco Bay (SFB) is a complex ecosystem that has been heavily impacted by human activities. It has experienced strong year-to-year variations in physical, chemical, and...     

Organochlorines and other environmental contaminants in muscle tissues of sportfish collected from San Francisco Bay

Edible fish species were collected from 13 locations throughout San Francisco Bay, during the spring of 1994, for determination of contaminant levels in muscle tissue. Species collected included white croaker, surfperch, leopard and brown smoothhound sharks, striped bass, white sturgeon and halibut. 66 composite tissue samples were analysed for the presence of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), polychlorinated biphenyls (P0CBs), pesticides, trace elements and dioxin/furans. The US EPA approach to assessing chemical contaminant data for fish tissue consumption was used for identifying the primary chemicals of concern. Six chemicals or chemical groups were found to exceed screening values (SVs) established using the US EPA approach. PCBs (as total Aroclors) exceeded the screening level of 3 ng g⁻¹ in all 66 muscle tissue samples, with the greatest concentrations (638 ng g⁻¹) found near San Francisco's industrial areas. Mercury was elevated (> 0.14 μg g⁻¹) in 40 of 66 samples with the greatest concentrations (1.26 μg g⁻¹) occurring in shark muscle tissues. Concentrations of the organochlorine pesticides dieldrin, total chlordane and total dichlorodiphenyltri-chloroethane (DDT) exceeded screening levels in a number of samples. Dioxin/furans (as toxic equivalent concentrations (TEQ's)) were elevated (> 0.15 pg g⁻¹) in 16 of the 19 samples analysed. Fish with high lipid content (croaker and surfperch) in their muscle tissue generally exhibited higher organic contaminant levels while fish with low lipid levels (halibut and shark) exhibited lower organic contaminant levels. Tissue samples taken from North Bay stations most often exhibited high levels of chemical contamination. The California Office of Health Hazard Assessment is currently evaluating the results of this study and has issued an interim Health Advisory concerning the human consumption of fish tissue from San Francisco Bay.     

1906年旧金山地震与火灾:超级灾难(保险)模型

引言十几年前,风险管理公司(RMS)和斯坦福大学对重要大都市地区的大地震事件的影响作了系列分析研究。虽然当时大灾难模型还处于科学发展的初期,但研究证明对一系列不确定事件和可能的后果,它不仅能提供保险风险管理,而且还提供了全球范围内各种可能的备灾和减灾方案。今天,风险管理公司帮助客户、合作伙伴和社区领导人了解潜在的灾难性破坏、人员伤亡以及象地震、洪水甚至恐怖袭击等灾难性事件的经济后果。保险行业利用我们的     

Empirical model of Skeletonema costatum photosynthetic rate,with applications in the San Francisco Bay estuary

An empirical model of Skeletonema costatum photosynthetic rate is developed and fit to measurements of photosynthesis selected from the literature. Because the model acknowledges existence of: 1) a light-temperature interaction (by allowing optimum irradiance to vary with temperature), 2) light inhibition, 3) temperature inhibition, and 4) a salinity effect, it accurately estimates photosynthetic rates measured over a wide range of temperature, light intensity, and salinity. Integration of predicted instantaneous rate of photosynthesis with time and depth yields daily net carbon assimilation (pg C cell^?1 day^?1) in a mixed layer of specified depth, when salinity, temperature, daily irradiance and extinction coefficient are known. The assumption of constant carbon quota (pg C cell^?1) allows for prediction of mean specific growth rate (day^?1), which can be used in numerical models of Skeletonema costatum population dynamics.Application of the model to northern San Francisco Bay clearly demonstrates the limitation of growth by low light availability, and suggests that large population densities of S. costatum observed during summer months are not the result of active growth in the central deep channels (where growth rates are consistently predicted to be negative). But predicted growth rates in the lateral shallows are positive during summer and fall, thus offering a testable hypothesis that shoals are the only sites of active population growth by S. costatum (and perhaps other neritic diatoms) in the northern reach of San Francisco Bay.     

Source mechanism of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake

Surface-wave amplitudes in the period range 50–100 s at eight European and North American stations, horizontal slip profiles along the rupture zone and the timing of certain events along the fault during rupture time are all engaged in unison to reconstruct the motion at the source. A modified source model is used to accommodate a moving rupture with variable dislocation in the direction of propagation.It is inferred that the rupture started at about 13 h 11 m 55 s GMT near San Juan Bautista and propagated unilaterally northwestward along N35°W over 400 km with an average rupture velocity of 3.5 km/s. At 13 h 12 m 12 s, the dynamic shear front, moving with the rupture speed, hit the Lick Observatory. Then, at 13 h 12 m 18 s, the rupture arrived to the vicinity of the epicenter in the Santa Cruz Mountains given by B. Bolt. There the slip changed sharply from an average of 0.5 m to a high value of 3 m causing extensive landslides and avalanches. At 13 h 12 m 32.5 s two railroad clocks at San Rafael were stopped. Finally, at 13 h 12 m 36 s the offset front hit the Naval Observatory at Mare Island and stopped the astronomical clocks there. Conspicuous surface waves, visible on Wiechert seismograms in Europe in the period range 55–65 s, reflect the true rupture time.The seismic data inversion yields an effective radiation source some 240 km long with an average vertical extent of some 34 km over a total fault length of 400 km ($\text{U}\text{d}\text{S ? 29,000}\text{m km}{}^2\text{or}\text{μ}\text{U}\text{d}\text{S ? 9 · 10}{}^{27}\text{dyn cm}$). It began at the Santa Cruz Mountains and ended some 20 km off coast Point Arena. Thus, due to the nonuniform slip profile, only $\text{3}\text{5}$ of the total fracture length contributed to the far radiation field.Although the product of the average source displacement (over the entire fault) and the vertical extent appears to be fairly well determined from the surface-wave spectrums, the separate values of these entities cannot be uniquely determined. If the average surface displacements (～ 3.2 m) are diagnostic of the entire fault, a vertical extent of H = 34 km is required.Finally, a new analysis of surface waves from the Alaska earthquake of July 10, 1958, the Queen Charlotte Islands earthquake of August 22, 1949 and the Kern County shock of July 21, 1952, enables us to draw parallels between the three biggest major events which occurred along the NE Pacific coast during 1906–1958. A common feature of all of these earthquakes is that vertical failure extents of 30–40 km are implied.     

Surveillance for previously unmonitored organic contaminants in the San Francisco Estuary

The San Francisco Estuary Regional Monitoring Program initiated surveillance monitoring to identify previously unmonitored synthetic organic contaminants in the San Francisco Estuary. Organic extracts of water samples were analyzed using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry in full scan mode. The major contaminant classes identified in the samples were fire retardants, pesticides, personal care product ingredients, and plasticizers. Evidence from the literature suggests that some of these contaminants can persist in the environment, induce toxicity, and accumulate in marine biota and in higher food chain consumers. The major sources of these contaminants into the marine environment are the discharge of municipal and industrial wastewater effluents, urban stormwater, and agricultural runoff. As a proactive effort, it is suggested that surveillance studies be used routinely in monitoring programs to identify and prevent potential problem contaminants from harming the marine environment.     

The 1914 Earthquake in the Altai Region

The data on the earthquakes of April 13 and 25, 1914 in Altai from (Novyi katalog…, 1977) have been summarized. Based on an analysis of the earlier publications and the new data from the initial sources, it has been shown that the only seismic event occurred on April 25 (12 old style), 1914. The weak differentiation of macroseismic effects over the area does not allow us to reliably locate the epicenter; the best spatial accuracy is ±50 km. Based on the entire data volume, the magnitude is estimated at 5.5 ± 0.3 which is slightly higher than was believed earlier.     

Measurement of butyltin compounds in San Diego Bay

Inorganic tin and butyltin compounds were analysed in water samples collected from several areas within San Diego Bay. Highest concentrations of butyltins were detected in the Shelter Island and Commercial Basin Yacht harbours where anthropogenic inputs of butyltin from antifouling paints were probable. A distinct increase in tributyltin concentration was seen in the Shelter Island Yacht harbour over a period spanning more than 2 years, suggesting that the use of antifouling paints containing tributyltin is increasing. Samples extracted with methylisobutyl ketone and analysed by graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrophotometry consistently yielded higher tin concentrations than the same samples analysed by a hydride reduction/flame atomic absorption method, suggesting a non-hydride reducible tin fraction was present. Gas chromatographymass spectrometry confirmed the presence of tributyltin in an environmental marine water sample following derivatization to the hydride species.     

Accumulation of Butyltins in Sediments and Lipid Tissues of the Asian Clam,Potamocorbula amurensis,Near Mare Island Naval Shipyard,San Francisco Bay

Studies of butyltin compounds in soil, benthic sediments and the Asian clam Potamocorbula amurensis were conducted at the former Mare Island Naval Shipyard, and nearby Mare Island and Carquinez Straits in San Francisco Bay, California. Soils from a sandblast abrasives dump site at the shipyard contained low concentrations of mono-, di- and tributyltin (0.3–52 ng/g, total butyltin). Similarly, concentrations of total butyltin in benthic sediments from nearby Mare Island and Carquinez Straits ranged from 1.3 to 8.1 ng/g. In contrast, clams accumulated much greater concentrations (152–307 ng/g, total butyltin). Tributyltin (TBT) and dibutyltin (DBT) made up from 54–85% to 15–46%, respectively, of the total butyltin body burden of the clams. Biota Sediment Accumulation Factors (BSAFs) for butyltins in Potamocorbula were in reasonable agreement with literature values; they are greater than those of neutral hydrophobic compounds, suggesting that partitioning and binding processes may be involved in bioaccumulation. Tributyltin is a potent endocrine disrupting chemical. There is potential for long-term chronic effects of TBT in San Francisco Bay.     

张北近场资料处理及震源区地震分布三维图像

简要介绍张北近场地震资料处理软件平台的主要功能，提出了计算机自动查找近场地震事件的快速有效方法，解决了小震、微震的快速查找，提出了利用密集的震源区精确地震定位结果获得该区地震分布三维图像的方法，可以反映震源区活动构造的三维形态，获得了张北震源区地震分布的三维图像，它展现了该区域现今活动断裂分布的三维构造格局。该震源区周围存在五条断裂，北东和北西向的四条断裂围成的“棱形”边界包围了震中区，北东向的（1）和北西向的（2）及北北西向的（3）三条断裂交汇于单晶河附近，地震分布最密集的区域位于该三条断裂的交汇处附近，该区域的地震主要是由这三条断裂的活动所造成。     

Earthquake Potential in the Zagros Region,Iran

Seismic strain and b value are used to quantify seismic potential in the Zagros region (Iran). Small b values (0.69 and 0.69) are related to large seismic moment rates (9.96×10¹⁷ and 4.12×10¹⁷) in southern zones of the Zagros, indicating more frequent large earthquakes. Medium to large b values (0.72 and 0.92) are related to small seismic moment rates (2.94×10¹⁶ and 6.80×10¹⁶) in middle zones of the Zagros, indicating less frequent large earthquakes. Small b value (0.64) is related to medium seismic moment rate (1.38×10¹⁷) in middle to northern zone of the Zagros, indicating frequent large earthquakes. Large b value (0.87) is related to large seismic moment rate (2.29×10¹⁷) in northwestern zone, indicating more frequent large earthquakes. Recurrence intervals of large earthquakes (M > 6) are short in southern (10 and 14 years) and northwestern (13 years) zones, while the recurrence intervals are long in the middle (46 and 114 years) and middle to northern (25 years) zones.     

Electromagnetic induction in the San Juan Bay region of Vancouver Island

The response of the electric and magnetic field variations over the San Juan Bay region of Vancouver Island is studied using a scaled laboratory analogue model. The laboratory frequencies simulate periods of 10 and 100 s in the geophysical problem. The model results indicate that, for both E- and H-polarization of the source field, induced current in the ocean is deflected around Cape Flattery and channelled into the Juan de Fuca Strait. With increasing period, the proportion of current channelled into the Strait decreases sharply. Induced current in the strait is also funnelled into San Juan Bay, a finger-shaped bay ca. 4 km wide and 7.5 km long, for both polarizations of the source field. The effect of the Bay on the field response is confined to the local region, within approximately 6 km of the centre of the Bay. Good agreement between field station and analogue model H_z results was obtained for the San Juan Bay. The behaviour of the Parkinson arrow for these two stations is examined with the aid of the analogue model results.     

2011年缅甸7.2级地震及震后云南强震趋势分析

系统收集了缅甸7.2级地震前后地震学基础资料,对缅甸地震地震地质、震源机制、烈度分布、发震构造、区域应力场、震源参数、地震灾害及地震序列时空分布进行详细分析,尤其对人们较为关切的缅甸地震后云南的强震形势进行了详细分析讨论,得到的认识对今后地震预测预报工作具有较大现实意义.