Geophysical Images of the North Anatolian Fault Zone in the Erzincan Basin, Eastern Turkey, and their Tectonic Implications

The collision between the Arabian and Eurasian plates in eastern Turkey causes the Anatolian block to move westward. The North Anatolian Fault (NAF) is a major strike-slip fault that forms the northern boundary of the Anatolian block, and the Erzincan Basin is the largest sedimentary basin on the NAF. In the last century, two large earthquakes have ruptured the NAF within the Erzincan Basin and caused major damage (M _s = 8.0 in 1939 and M _s = 6.8 in 1992). The seismic hazard in Erzincan from future earthquakes on the NAF is significant because the unconsolidated sedimentary basin can amplify the ground motion during an earthquake. The amount of amplification depends on the thickness and geometry of the basin. Geophysical constraints can be used to image basin depth and predict the amount of seismic amplification. In this study, the basin geometry and fault zone structure were investigated using broadband magnetotelluric (MT) data collected on two profiles crossing the Erzincan Basin. A total of 24 broadband MT stations were acquired with 1–2 km spacing in 2005. Inversion of the MT data with 1D, 2D and 3D algorithms showed that the maximum thickness of the unconsolidated sediments is ~3 km in the Erzincan Basin. The MT resistivity models show that the northern flanks of the basin have a steeper dip than the southern flanks, and the basin deepens towards the east where it has a depth of 3.5 km. The MT models also show that the structure of the NAF may vary from east to west along the Erzincan Basin.     

The Lemnos 8 January 2013 (M w = 5.7) earthquake: fault slip,aftershock properties and static stress transfer modeling in the north Aegean Sea

We investigate mainshock slip distribution and aftershock activity of the 8 January 2013 M _w?=?5.7 Lemnos earthquake, north Aegean Sea. We analyse the seismic waveforms to better understand the spatio-temporal characteristics of earthquake rupture within the seismogenic layer of the crust. Peak slip values range from 50 to 64 cm and mean slip values range from 10 to 12 cm. The slip patches of the event extend over an area of dimensions 16?×?16 km². We also relocate aftershock catalog locations to image seismic fault dimensions and test earthquake transfer models. The relocated events allowed us to identify the active faults in this area of the north Aegean Sea by locating two, NE–SW linear patterns of aftershocks. The aftershock distribution of the mainshock event clearly reveals a NE–SW striking fault about 40 km offshore Lemnos Island that extends from 2 km up to a depth of 14 km. After the mainshock most of the seismic activity migrated to the east and to the north of the hypocenter due to (a) rupture directivity towards the NE and (b) Coulomb stress transfer. A stress inversion analysis based on 14 focal mechanisms of aftershocks showed that the maximum horizontal stress is compressional at N84°E. The static stress transfer analysis for all post-1943 major events in the North Aegean shows no evidence for triggering of the 2013 event. We suggest that the 2013 event occurred due to tectonic loading of the North Aegean crust.     

Frequency-dependent rupture process,stress change,and seismogenic mechanism of the 25 April 2015 Nepal Gorkha <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>w</Subscript> 7.8 earthquake

On 25 April 2015, an M _w 7.8 earthquake occurred on the Main Himalaya Thrust fault with a dip angle of ~ 7° about 77 km northwest of Kathmandu, Nepal. This Nepal Gorkha event is the largest one on the Himalayan thrust belt since 1950. Here we use the compressive sensing method in the frequency domain to track the seismic radiation and rupture process of this event using teleseismic P waves recorded by array stations in North America. We also compute the distribution of static shear stress changes on the fault plane from a coseismic slip model. Our results indicate a dominant east-southeastward unilateral rupture process from the epicenter with an average rupture speed of ~3 km s^?1. Coseismic radiation of this earthquake shows clear frequency-dependent features. The lower frequency (0.05–0.3 Hz) radiation mainly originates from large coseismic slip regions with negative coseismic shear stress changes. In comparison, higher frequency (0.3–0.6 Hz) radiation appears to be from the down-dip part around the margin of large slip areas, which has been loaded and presents positive coseismic shear stress changes. We propose an asperity model to interpret this Nepal earthquake sequence and compare the frequency-dependent coseismic radiation with that in subduction zones. Such frequency-dependent radiation indicates the depth-varying frictional properties on the plate interface of the Nepal section in the main Himalaya thrust system, similar to previous findings in oceanic subduction zones. Our findings provide further evidence of the spatial correlation between changes of static stress status on the fault plane and the observed frequency-dependent coseismic radiation during large earthquakes. Our results show that the frequency-dependent coseismic radiation is not only found for megathrust earthquakes in the oceanic subduction environment, but also holds true for thrust events in the continental collision zone.     

Earthquake recurrence models and occurrence probabilities of strong earthquakes in the North Aegean Trough (Greece)

The determination of strong earthquakes’ recurrence time above a predefined magnitude, associated with specific fault segments, is an important component of seismic hazard assessment. The occurrence of these earthquakes is neither periodic nor completely random but often clustered in time. This fact in connection with their limited number, due to shortage of the available catalogs, inhibits a deterministic approach for recurrence time calculation, and for this reason, application of stochastic processes is required. In this study, recurrence time determination in the area of North Aegean Trough (NAT) is developed by the application of time-dependent stochastic models, introducing an elastic rebound motivated concept for individual fault segments located in the study area. For this purpose, all the available information on strong earthquakes (historical and instrumental) with M_w ≥ 6.5 is compiled and examined for magnitude completeness. Two possible starting dates of the catalog are assumed with the same magnitude threshold, M_w ≥ 6.5 and divided into five data sets, according to a new segmentation model for the study area. Three Brownian Passage Time (BPT) models with different levels of aperiodicity are applied and evaluated with the Anderson–Darling test for each segment in both catalog data where possible. The preferable models are then used in order to estimate the occurrence probabilities of M_w ≥ 6.5 shocks on each segment of NAT for the next 10, 20, and 30 years since 01/01/2016. Uncertainties in probability calculations are also estimated using a Monte Carlo procedure. It must be mentioned that the provided results should be treated carefully because of their dependence to the initial assumptions. Such assumptions exhibit large variability and alternative means of these may return different final results.     

Stress field change around the Mount Fuji volcano magma system caused by the Tohoku megathrust earthquake, Japan

Crustal deformation by the M _w 9.0 megathrust Tohoku earthquake causes the extension over a wide region of the Japanese mainland. In addition, a triggered M _w 5.9 East Shizuoka earthquake on March 15 occurred beneath the south flank, just above the magma system of Mount Fuji. To access whether these earthquakes might trigger the eruption, we calculated the stress and pressure changes below Mount Fuji. Among the three plausible mechanisms of earthquake–volcano interactions, we calculate the static stress change around volcano using finite element method, based on the seismic fault models of Tohoku and East Shizuoka earthquakes. Both Japanese mainland and Mount Fuji region are modeled by seismic tomography result, and the topographic effect is also included. The differential stress given to Mount Fuji magma reservoir, which is assumed to be located to be in the hypocentral area of deep long period earthquakes at the depth of 15 km, is estimated to be the order of about 0.001–0.01 and 0.1–1 MPa at the boundary region between magma reservoir and surrounding medium. This pressure change is about 0.2 % of the lithostatic pressure (367.5 MPa at 15 km depth), but is enough to trigger an eruptions in case the magma is ready to erupt. For Mount Fuji, there is no evidence so far that these earthquakes and crustal deformations did reactivate the volcano, considering the seismicity of deep long period earthquakes.     

Radiated Energy of Great Earthquakes from Teleseismic Empirical Green’s Function Deconvolution

We expand on the empirical Green’s function deconvolution method of Ide et al. (2011) to estimate radiated energy for the six largest earthquakes worldwide over the last 10 years: 2011 M _w 9.0 Tohoku-Oki, 2004 M _w 9.1 Sumatra, 2010 M _w 8.8 Maule, 2005 M _w 8.7 Nias, 2007 M _w 8.5 Bengkulu, and 2012 M _w 8.6 off-Sumatra. Deconvolution of P, SV and SH components gives consistent energy results that are comparable to estimates found independently by other researchers. Apparent stress for the five great thrust earthquakes is between 0.4 and 0.8 MPa, while the 2012 off-Sumatra strike-slip earthquake has a higher apparent stress of 3 MPa, which is consistent with other studies that find a tendency for strike-slip events to be more energetic. Our results are within the spread of apparent stress from the wider global earthquake population over a large magnitude range. The azimuthal distribution of energy in each case shows signs of directivity, and in some cases, shows less energy radiated in the trench-ward direction, which may suggest enhanced tsunami potential. We find that eGfs as small as ~M 6.5 can be used for teleseismic deconvolution, and that an eGf-mainshock magnitude difference of 1.5 units yields stable results. This implies that M 8 is the minimum mainshock size for which teleseismic eGf deconvolution will work well. We propose that a database of eGf events could be used to calculate radiated energy and apparent stress of great, hazardous events in near real time, i.e., promptly enough that it could contribute to rapid response measures.     

Application of the stress evolutionary model along the Xiaojiang fault zone in Yunnan Province,Southeast China

The Xiaojiang fault zone constitutes part of the major Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang left lateral structure that bounds the rhombic-shaped block of Yunnan-Sichuan to the east. Long strike slip fault zones that have repeatedly accommodated intense seismic activity, constitute a basic feature of southeast China. Known historical earthquakes to have struck the study area are the 1713 Xundian of M6.8, 1725 Wanshou mountain of M6.8, the 1733 Dongchuan of M7.8, and the strongest one, the 1833 Songming of M8.0. Although instrumental record did not report events of this magnitude class, the 18th century clustering as well as the 19th century large event prompted the investigation of stress transfer along this fault zone. Coulomb stress changes were calculated assuming that earthquakes can be modeled as static dislocations in an elastic half-space, and taking into account both the coseismic slip in strong (M ≥ 6.8) earthquakes and the slow tectonic stress buildup along the major fault segments. Geological and geodetic data are used to infer the geometry of these faults and long term slip rates on them, as well as for the fault segments that slipped. Evidence is presented that the strong historical events as well as the ones of smaller magnitude that occurred during the instrumental era, are located in areas where the static stress was enhanced. By extending the calculations up to present, possible sites for future strong events are identified.     

An Evaluation of Coulomb Stress Changes from Earthquake Productivity Variations in the Western Gulf of Corinth,Greece

Spatial and temporal evolution of the stress field in the seismically active and well-monitored area of the western Gulf of Corinth, Greece, is investigated. The highly accurate and vast regional catalogues were used for inverting seismicity rate changes into stress variation using a rate/state-dependent friction model. After explicitly determining the physical quantities incorporated in the model (characteristic relaxation time, fault constitutive parameters, and reference seismicity rates), we looked for stress changes across space and over time and their possible association with earthquake clustering and fault interactions. We focused our attention on the Efpalio doublet of January 2010 (M = 5.5 and M = 5.4), with a high aftershock productivity, and attempted to reproduce and interpret stress changes prior to and after the initiation of this seismicity burst. The spatial distribution of stress changes was evaluated after smoothing the seismological data by means of a probability density function (PDF). The inverted stress calculations were compared with the calculations derived from an independent approach (elastic dislocation model) and this comparison was quantified. The results of the two methods are in good agreement (up to 80 %) in the far field, with the inversion technique providing more robust results in the near field, where they are more sensitive to the uncertainties of coseismic slip distribution. It is worth mentioning that the stress inversion model proved to be a very sensitive stress meter, able to detect even small stress changes correlated with spatio–temporal earthquake clustering. Data analysis was attempted from 1975 onwards to simulate the stress changes associated with stronger earthquakes over a longer time span. This approach revealed that only M > 5.5 events induce considerable stress variations, although in some cases there was no evidence for such stress changes even after an M > 5.5 earthquake.     

Source parameters for the M<Subscript>w</Subscript> = 6.6, 03 February 2002, Çay Earthquake (Turkey) and aftershocks from GPS,Southwestern Turkey

The 03 February 2002 Çay Earthquake (M_w ～6.7) occurred on the fault segment between Eber and Ak?ehir Lakes followed by a large aftershock (M_w ～5.6) near the western end of the fault and two sequential aftershocks. We computed the coseismic surface displacements from static GPS measurements to determine the fault geometry parameters and uniform slip components. The coseismic displacements were obtained through combining the regional pre-earthquake and post-earthquake GPS data. Fault geometry and slips were acquired through the inversion of GPS data modeling the events as elastic dislocations in a half-space and assuming all four events took place on the same fault plane. Results suggest that one-segment fault of ～33 km length and dipping ～43° northward suffices to model the dislocation, assuming uniform slip distribution with 0.51 m dip slip, 0.26 m left-lateral slip extending to a depth down to ～11.5 km which is consistent with seismological evidence. The results also verify the normal faulting in the eastern flank of Isparta Angle which has long been assumed as a thrusting structure. While the available data cannot identify the four individual events on the same day, an attempted distributed slip model differentiates dip slip and left-lateral slips near the hypocenter with maximum values of ～1 and 0.6 m, respectively.     

Correlation of Static Stress Changes and Earthquake Occurrence in the North Aegean Region

A systematic analysis is made of static Coulomb stress changes and earthquake occurrence in the area of the North Aegean Sea, Greece, in order to assess the prospect of using static stress changes to construct a regional earthquake likelihood model. The earthquake data set comprises all events of magnitude M ≥ 5.2 which have occurred since 1964. This is compared to the evolving stress field due to constant tectonic loading and perturbations due to coseismic slip associated with major earthquakes (M ≥ 6.4) over the same period. The stress was resolved for sixteen fault orientation classes, covering the observed focal mechanisms of all earthquakes in the region. Analysis using error diagrams shows that earthquake occurrence is better correlated with the constant tectonic loading component of the stress field than with the total stress field changes since 1964, and that little, if any, information on earthquake occurrence is lost if only the maximum of the tectonic loading over the fault orientation classes is considered. Moreover, the information on earthquake occurrence is actually increased by taking the maximum of the evolving stress field since 1964, and of its coseismic-slip component, over the fault orientation classes. The maximum, over fault orientation classes, of linear combinations of the tectonic loading and the evolving stress field is insignificantly better correlated with earthquake occurrence than the maximum of the tectonic loading by itself. A composite stress-change variable is constructed from ordering of the maximum tectonic loading component and the maximum coseismic-slip component, in order to optimize the correlation with earthquake occurrence. The results indicate that it would be difficult to construct a time-varying earthquake likelihood model from the evolving stress field that is more informative than a time-invariant model based on the constant tectonic loading.     

Coseismic deformation of the 2021 MW7.4 Maduo earthquake from joint inversion of InSAR,GPS, and teleseismic data

The M_W7.4 Maduo earthquake occurred on 22 May 2021 at 02:04 CST with a large-expansion surface rupture. This earthquake was located in the Bayan Har block at the eastern Tibetan Plateau, where eight earthquakes of M_S >7.0 have occurred in the past 25 years. Here, we combined interferometric synthetic aperture radar, GPS, and teleseismic data to study the coseismic slip distribution, fault geometry, and dynamic source rupture process of the Maduo earthquake. We found that the overall coseismic deformation field of the Maduo earthquake is distributed in the NWW-SEE direction along 285°. There was slight bending at the western end and two branches at the eastern end. The maximum slip is located near the eastern bending area on the northern branch of the fault system. The rupture nucleated on the Jiangcuo fault and propagated approximately 160 km along-strike in both the NWW and SEE directions. The characteristic source rupture process of the Maduo earthquake is similar to that of the 2010 M_W6.8 Yushu earthquake, indicating that similar earthquakes with large-expansion surface ruptures and small shallow slip deficits can occur on both the internal fault and boundary fault of the Bayan Har block.     

Stress Release and Source Scaling of the 2010–2011 Canterbury,New Zealand Earthquake Sequence from Spectral Inversion of Ground Motion Data

The Canterbury earthquake sequence beginning with the 2010 M _W 7.2 Darfield earthquake is one of the most notable and well-recorded crustal earthquake sequences in a low-strain-rate region worldwide and as such provides a unique opportunity to better understand earthquake source physics and ground motion generation in such a tectonic setting. Ground motions during this sequence ranged up to extreme values of 2.2 g, recorded during the February 2011 M _W 6.2 event beneath the city of Christchurch. A better understanding of the seismic source signature of this sequence, in particular the stress release and its scaling with earthquake size, is crucial for future ground motion prediction and hazard assessment in Canterbury, but also of high interest for other low-to-moderate seismicity regions where high-quality records of large earthquakes are lacking. Here we present a source parameter study of more than 200 events of the Canterbury sequence, covering the magnitude range M _W 3–7.2. Source spectra were derived using a generalized spectral inversion technique and found to be well characterized by the ω ^?2 source model. We find that stress drops range between 1 and 20 MPa with a median value of 5 MPa, which is a factor of 5 larger than the median stress drop previously estimated with the same method for crustal earthquakes in much more seismically active Japan. Stress drop scaling with earthquake size is nearly self-similar, and we identify lateral variations throughout Canterbury, in particular high stress drops at the fault edges of the two major events, the M _W 7.2 Darfield and M _W 6.2 Christchurch earthquakes.     

Millennium recurrence interval of morphogenic earthquakes on the Qingchuan fault,northeastern segment of the Longmen Shan Thrust Belt,China

The 2008 M _w 7.9 Wenchuan produced a ～285–300-km-long coseismic surface rupture zone, including a 60-km-long segment along the Qingchuan fault, the northeastern segment of the Longmen Shan Thrust Belt (LSTB), Sichuan Basin, central China. Field investigations, trench excavations, and radiocarbon dating results reveal that (i) the Qingchuan fault is currently active as a seismogenic fault, along which four morphogenic earthquakes including the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake occurred in the past ca. 3500 years, suggesting an average millennium recurrence interval of morphogenic earthquakes in the late Holocene; (ii) the most recent event prior to the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake took place in the period between AD 1400 and AD 1100; (iii) the penultimate paleoseismic event occurred in the period around 2000 years BP in the Han Dynasty (206 BC–AD 220); (iv) the third paleoseismic event occurred in the period between 900 and 1800 BC; and (v) at least three seismic faulting events occurred in the early Holocene. The present results are comparable with those inferred in the central and southwestern segments of the LSTB within which the Wenchuan magnitude earthquakes occurred in a millennium recurrence interval, that are in contrast with previous estimates of 2000–10,000 years for the recurrence interval of morphogenic earthquakes within the LSTB and thereby necessitating substantial modifications to existing seismic hazard models for the densely populated region at the Sichuan region.     

Source parameters of the 27th of June 2015 Gulf of Aqaba earthquake

On the 27 June 2015, at 15:34:03 UTC, a moderate-sized earthquake of M _w 5.0 occurred in the Gulf of Aqaba. Using teleseismic P waves, the focal mechanism of the mainshock was investigated by two techniques. The first technique used the polarities of the first P wave onsets, and the second technique was based on the normalized waveform modeling technique. The results showed that the extension stress has a NE orientation with a shallow southward plunge while the compression stress has a NW trend with a nearly shallow westward plunge, obtaining a strike-slip mechanism. This result agrees well with the typical consequence of crustal deformation resulting from the ongoing extensional to shear stress regime in the Gulf of Aqaba (NE-SW extension and NW-SE compression). The grid search method over a range of focal depths indicates an optimum solution at 15 ± 1 km. To identify the causative fault plane, the aftershock hypocenters were relocated using the local waveform data and the double-difference technique. Considering the fault trends, the spatial distribution of relocated aftershocks demarcated a NS-oriented causative fault, in consistence with one of the nodal planes of the focal mechanism solution, emphasizing the dominant stress regime in the region. Following the Brune model, the estimates of source parameters exhibited fault lengths of 0.29 ≤ L ≤ 2.48 km, moment magnitudes of 3.0 ≤ M _w ≤ 5.0, and stress drops of 0.14 ≤ Δσ < 1.14 MPa, indicating a source scaling similar to the tectonic earthquakes related to plate boundaries.     

Did the M S7.0 Lushan earthquake dynamically trigger earthquakes in the Datong volcanic region (Shanxi Province)?

Immediately following the M _S7.0 Lushan earthquake on April 20, 2013, using high-pass and low-pass filtering on the digital seismic stations in the Shanxi Province, located about 870–1,452 km from the earthquake epicenter, we detected some earthquakes at a time corresponding to the first arrival of surface waves in high-pass filtering waveform. The earthquakes were especially noticed at stations in Youyu (YUY), Shanzizao (SZZ), Shanghuangzhuang (SHZ), and Zhenchuan (ZCH), which are located in a volcanic region in the Shanxi Province,but they were not listed in the Shanxi seismic observation report. These earthquakes occurred 4–50 min after the passage of the maximum amplitude Rayleigh wave, and the periods of the surface waves were mainly between 15 and 20 s following. The Coulomb stresses caused by the Rayleigh waves that acted on the four stations was about 0.001 MPa, which is a little lower than the threshold value of dynamic triggering, therefore, we may conclude that the Datong volcanic region is more sensitive to the Coulomb stress change. To verify, if the similar phenomena are widespread, we used the same filtering to observe contrastively continuous waveform data before, and 5 h after, the M _S7.0 Lushan earthquake and M _S9.0 Tohoku earthquake in 2011. The results show that the similar phenomena occur before the earthquakes, but the seismicity rates after the earthquakes are remarkably increased. Since these weak earthquakes are quite small, it is hard to get clear phase arrival time from three or more stations to locate them. In addition, the travel time differences between P waves and S waves (S–P) are all less than 4 s, that means the events should occur in 34 km around the stations in the volcanic region. The stress of initial dynamic triggering of the M _S9.0 Tohoku earthquake was about 0.09 MPa, which is much higher than the threshold value of dynamic triggering stress. The earthquakes after the M _S9.0 Tohoku earthquake are related to dynamic triggering stress, but the events before the earthquake cannot be linked to seismic events, but may be related to the background seismicity or from other kinds of local sources, such as anthropogenic sources (i.e., explosions). Using two teleseismic filtering, the small background earthquakes in the Datong volcanic region occur frequently, thus we postulate that previous catalog does not apply bandpass filter to pick out the weak earthquakes, and some of the observed weak events were not triggered by changes in the dynamic stress field.     

Joint inversion of GNSS and teleseismic data for the rupture process of the 2017 <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>w</Subscript>6.5 Jiuzhaigou,China, earthquake

The spatio-temporal slip distribution of the earthquake that occurred on 8 August 2017 in Jiuzhaigou, China, was estimated from the teleseismic body wave and near-field Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data (coseismic displacements and high-rate GPS data) based on a finite fault model. Compared with the inversion results from the teleseismic body waves, the near-field GNSS data can better restrain the rupture area, the maximum slip, the source time function, and the surface rupture. The results show that the maximum slip of the earthquake approaches 1.4 m, the scalar seismic moment is ~ 8.0 × 10¹⁸ N·m (M_w?≈?6.5), and the centroid depth is ~ 15 km. The slip is mainly driven by the left-lateral strike-slip and it is initially inferred that the seismogenic fault occurs in the south branch of the Tazang fault or an undetectable fault, a NW-trending left-lateral strike-slip fault, and belongs to one of the tail structures at the easternmost end of the eastern Kunlun fault zone. The earthquake rupture is mainly concentrated at depths of 5–15 km, which results in the complete rupture of the seismic gap left by the previous four earthquakes with magnitudes >?6.0 in 1973 and 1976. Therefore, the possibility of a strong aftershock on the Huya fault is low. The source duration is ~ 30 s and there are two major ruptures. The main rupture occurs in the first 10 s, 4 s after the earthquake; the second rupture peak arrives in ~ 17 s. In addition, the Coulomb stress study shows that the epicenter of the earthquake is located in the area where the static Coulomb stress change increased because of the 12 May 2017 M_w7.9 Wenchuan, China, earthquake. Therefore, the Wenchuan earthquake promoted the occurrence of the 8 August 2017 Jiuzhaigou earthquake.     

Characteristics of Soil Response in Near-Fault Zones During the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, Earthquake

Distribution of parameters characterizing soil response during the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, earthquake (M _w = 7.6) around the fault plane is studied. The results of stochastic finite-fault simulations performed in Pavlenko and Wen (2008) and constructed models of soil behavior at 31 soil sites were used for the estimation of amplification of seismic waves in soil layers, average stresses, strains, and shear moduli reduction in the upper 30 m of soil, as well as nonlinear components of soil response during the Chi-Chi earthquake. Amplification factors were found to increase with increasing distance from the fault (or, with decreasing the level of “input” motion to soil layers), whereas average stresses and strains, shear moduli reduction, and nonlinear components of soil response decrease with distance as ~ r ^?1 . The area of strong nonlinearity, where soil behavior is substantially nonlinear (the content of nonlinear components in soil response is more than ~40–50% of the intensity of the response), and spectra of oscillations on the surface take the smoothed form close to E(f) ~ f ^?n , is located within ~20–25 km from the fault plane (~ 1/4 of its length). Nonlinearity decreases with increasing distance from the fault, and at ~40–50 km from the fault (~ 1/2 of the fault length), soil response becomes virtually linear. Comparing soil behavior in near-fault zones during the 1999 Chi-Chi, the 1995 Kobe (M _w = 6.8), and the 2000 Tottori (Japan) (M _w = 6.7) earthquakes, we found similarity in the behavior of similar soils and predominance of the hard type of soil behavior. Resonant phenomena in upper soil layers were observed at many studied sites; however, during the Chi-Chi earthquake they involved deeper layers (down to ~ 40–60 m) than during lesser-magnitude Kobe and Tottori earthquakes.     

Stochastic Finite Fault Modeling of Subduction Zone Earthquakes in Northeastern India

In this article, a stochastic finite fault source model is calibrated to estimate ground motion in northeastern India for intermediate depth events originating in the Indo-Burmese tectonic domain. A total of 47 three-component accelerograms from eight events with magnitudes ranging from M _w 4.8–6.4 are used to estimate the input source and site parameters of the finite fault source model. Key seismic parameters such as stress drop (Δσ) and site amplification function are determined from the recorded strong motion data. The obtained stress drop of the eight recorded events lies in between 105 and 165 bars.     

Earthquake Triggering along the Xianshuihe Fault Zone of Western Sichuan,China

Western Sichuan is among the most seismically active regions in southwestern China and is characterized by frequent strong (M 6.5) earthquakes, mainly along the Xianshuihe fault zone. Historical and instrumental seismicity show a temporal pattern of active periods separated by inactive ones, while in space a remarkable epicenter migration has been observed. During the last active period starting in 1893, the sinistral strike–slip Xianshuihe fault of 350 km total length, was entirely broken with the epicenters of successive strong earthquakes migrating along its strike. This pattern is investigated by resolving changes of Coulomb failure function (CFF) since 1893 and hence the evolution of the stress field in the area during the last 110 years. Coulomb stress changes were calculated assuming that earthquakes can be modeled as static dislocations in an elastic halfspace, and taking into account both the coseismic slip in strong (M 6.5) earthquakes and the slow tectonic stress buildup associated with major fault segments. The stress change calculations were performed for faults of strike, dip, and rake appropriate to the strong events. We evaluate whether these stress changes brought a given strong earthquake closer to, or sent it farther from, failure. It was found that all strong earthquakes, and moreover, the majority of smaller events for which reliable fault plane solutions are available, have occurred on stress–enhanced fault segments providing a convincing case in which Coulomb stress modeling gives insight into the temporal and spatial manifestation of seismic activity. We extend the stress calculations to the year 2025 and provide an assessment for future seismic hazard by identifying the fault segments that are possible sites of future strong earthquakes.     

Multi-disciplinary earthquake researches in Western Turkey: Hints to select sites to study geochemical transients associated to seismicity

Warm and hot spring water as well as soil gas radon release patterns have been monitored in the Aegean Extensional Province of Western Turkey, alongside regional seismic events, providing a multi-disciplinary approach. In the study period of 20 months, seven moderate earthquakes with M _L between 4.0 and 4.7 occurred in this seismically very active region; two earthquakes with magnitude 5.0 also occurred near the study area. Seismic monitoring showed no foreshock activity. By contrast, hydro-geochemical anomalies were found prior to these seismic events, each lasting for weeks. The anomalies occurred foremost in conjunction with dip-slip events and seem to support the dilatancy and water diffusion hypothesis. Increased soil gas radon release was recorded before earthquakes associated with strike-slip faults, but no soil radon anomalies were seen before earthquakes associated with dip-slip faults. Geochemical anomalies were also noticeably absent at some springs throughout the postulated deformation zones of impending earthquakes. The reason for this discrepancy might be due to stress/strain anisotropies.