Impact of Cloud Microphysical Processes on the Simulation of Typhoon Rananim near Shore.Part Ⅱ:Typhoon Intensity and Track

The impact of cloud microphysical processes on the simulated intensity and track of Typhoon Rananim is discussed and analyzed in the second part of this study.The results indicate that when the cooling effect due to evaporation of rain water is excluded,the simulated 36-h maximum surface wind speed of Typhoon Rananim is about 7 m s-1 greater than that from all other experiments; however,the typhoon landfall location has the biggest bias of about 150 km against the control experiment.The simulated strong outer rainbands and the vertical shear of the environmental flow are unfavorable for the deepening and maintenance of the typhoon and result in its intensity loss near the landfall.It is the cloud microphysical processes that strengthen and create the outer spiral rainbands,which then increase the local convergence away from the typhoon center and prevent more moisture and energy transport to the inner core of the typhoon.The developed outer rainbands are supposed to bring dry and cold air mass from the middle troposphere to the planetary boundary layer (PBL).The other branch of the cold airflow comes from the evaporation of rain water itself in the PBL while the droplets are falling.Thus,the cut-off of the warm and moist air to the inner core and the invasion of cold and dry air to the eyewall region are expected to bring about the intensity reduction of the modeled typhoon.Therefore,the deepening and maintenance of Typhoon Rananim during its landing are better simulated through the reduction of these two kinds of model errors.     

Case Studies of the Microphysical and Kinematic Structure of Summer Mesoscale Precipitation Clouds over the Eastern Tibetan Plateau

Three cases of microphysical characteristics and kinematic structures in the negative temperature region of summer mesoscale cloud systems over the eastern Tibetan Plateau(TP) were investigated using X-band dual-polarization radar. The time–height series of radar physical variables and mesoscale horizontal divergence ■ derived by quasi-vertical profiles(QVPs) indicated that the dendritic growth layer(DGL,-20°C to-10°C) was ubiquitous, with large-value zones of K_DP(specific differentia...     

Impact of Surface Potential Vorticity Density Forcing over the Tibetan Plateau on the South China Extreme Precipitation in January 2008. Part Ⅱ:Numerical Simulation

The surface air convergence on the eastern flank of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) can increase the in situ surface potential vorticity density (PVD). Since the elevated TP intersects with the isentropic surfaces in the lower troposphere, the increased PVD on the eastern flank of TP thus forms a PVD forcing to the intersected isentropic surface in the boundary layer. The influence of surface PVD forcing over the TP on the extreme freezing rain/snow over South China in January 2008 is investigated by using numerical experiments based on the Finite-volume Atmospheric Model of the IAP/LASG (FAMIL). Compared with observations, the simulation results show that, by using a nudging method for assimilating observation data in the initial flow, this model can reasonably reproduce the distribution of precipitation, atmospheric circulation, and PVD propagation over and downstream of the TP during the extreme winter precipitation period. In order to investigate the impact of the increased surface PVD over the TP on the extreme precipitation in South China, a sensitivity experiment with surface PVD reduced over the TP region was performed. Compared with the control experiment, it is found that the precipitation in the TP downstream area, especially in Southeast China, is reduced. The rainband from Guangxi Region to Shandong Province has almost disappeared. In the lower troposphere, the increase of surface PVD over the TP region has generated an anomalous cyclonic circulation over southern China, which plays an important role in increasing southerly wind and the water vapor transport in this area;it also increases the northward negative absolute vorticity advection. In the upper troposphere, the surface PVD generated in eastern TP propagates on isentropic surface along westerly wind and results in positive absolute vorticity advection in the downstream areas. Consequently, due to the development of both ascending motion and water vapor transport in the downstream place of the TP, extremely heavy precipitation occurs over southern China. Thereby, a new mechanism concerning the influence of the increased surface PVD over the eastern TP slopes on the extreme weather event occurring over southern China is revealed.     

Impact of Surface Potential Vorticity Density Forcing over the Tibetan Plateau on the South China Extreme Precipitation in January 2008. Part Ⅰ:Data Analysis

The external source/sink of potential vorticity (PV) is the original driving force for the atmospheric circulation. The relationship between surface PV generation and surface PV density forcing is discussed in detail in this paper. Moreover, a case study of the extreme winter freezing rain/snow storm over South China in January 2008 is performed, and the surface PV density forcing over the eastern flank of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has been found to significantly affect the precipitation over South China in this case. The TP generated PV propagated eastward in the middle troposphere. The associated zonal advection of positive absolute vorticity resulted in the increasing of cyclo-nic relative vorticity in the downstream region of the TP. Ascending air and convergence in the lower troposphere developed, which gave rise to the development of the southerly wind. This favored the increasing of negative meridio-nal absolute vorticity advection in the lower troposphere, which provided a large-scale circulation background conducive to ascending motion such that the absolute vorticity advection increased with height. Consequently, the ascending air further strengthened the southerly wind and the vertical gradient of absolute vorticity advection between the lower and middle troposphere in turn. Under such a situation, the enhanced ascending, together with the moist air transported by the southerly wind, formed the extreme winter precipitation in January 2008 over South China.     

Numerical Simulation Study on the Impacts of Tropospheric O_3 and CO_2 Concentration Changes on Winter Wheat. Part Ⅱ: Simulation Results and Analyses

With the rapid development of industrialization and urbanization, the enrichment of tropospheric ozone and carbon dioxide concentration at striking rates has caused effects on biosphere, especially on crops. It is generally accepted that the increase of CO2 concentration will have obverse effects on plant productivity while ozone is reported as the air pollutant most damaging to agricultural crops and other plants. The Model of Carbon and Nitrogen Biogeochemistry in Agroecosystems (DNDC) was adapted to evaluate simultaneously impacts of climate change on winter wheat. Growth development and yield formation of winter wheat under different O3 and CO2 concentration conditions are simulated with the improved DNDC model whose structure has been described in another paper. Through adjusting the DNDC model applicability, winter wheat growth and development in Gucheng Station were simulated well in 1993 and 1999, which is in favor of modifying the model further. The model was validated against experiment observation, including development stage data, leaf area index, each organ biomass, and total aboveground biomass. Sensitivity tests demonstrated that the simulated results in development stage and biomass were sensitive to temperature change. The main conclusions of the paper are the following: 1) The growth and yield of winter wheat under CO2 concentration of 500 ppmv, 700 ppmv and the current ozone concentration are simulated respectively by the model. The results are well fitted with the observed data of OTCs experiments. The results show that increase of CO2 concentration may improve the growth of winter wheat and elevate the yield. 2) The growth and yield of winter wheat under O3 concentration of 50 ppbv, 100 ppbv, 200 ppbv and the based concentration CO2 are simulated respectively by the model. The simulated curves of stem, leaf, and spike organs growth as well as leaf area index are well accounted with the observed data. The results reveal that ozone has negative effects on the growth and yield of winter wheat. Ozone accelerates the process of leaf senescence and causes yield loss. Under very high ozone concentration, crops are damaged dramatically and even dead. 3) At last, by the model possible effects of air temperature change and combined effects of O3 and CO2 are estimated respectively. The results show that doubled CO2 concentration may alleviate negative effect of O3 on biomass and yield of winter wheat when ozone concentration is about 70-80 ppbv. The obverse effects of CO2 are less than the adverse effects of O3 when the concentration of ozone is up to 100 ppbv. Future work should determine whether it can be applied to other species by adjusting the values of related parameters, and whether the model can be adapted to predict ozone effects on crops in farmland environment.     

Numerical Simulation on the Rainout-Removal of Sulfur Dioxide and Acidification of Precipitation from Stratiform Clouds

The rainout-removal of SO2 and the acidification of precipitation from stratiform clouds are simulated using a one-dimensional, time-dependent model, parameterized microphysically in which dissolution and dissociation of gaseous SO2 and H2O2, and oxidation reaction in aqueous phase are taken into account. The effects of dynamic fac-tors, including updraft flow and turbulent transport, and the concentration of gaseous SO2 and H2O2 being transported into the clouds on pH value of the precipitation, the conversion rate S(IV)－S (VI) and the wet deposition rate of SO2 are discussed.     

Application of Radar Reflectivity Factor in Initializing Cloud-Resolving Mesoscale Model. Part Ⅰ: Retrieval of Microphysical Elements and Vertical Velocity

Assuming that cloud reaches static state in the warm microphysical processes, water vapor mixing ratio(qv), cloud water mixing ratio (qc), and vertical velocity (w) can be calculated from rain water mixing ratio (qr)- Through relation of Z-qr, qr can be retrieved by radar reflectivity factor (Z). Retrieval results indicate that the distributions of mixing ratios of vapor, cloud, rain, and vertical velocity are consistent with radar images, and the three-dimensional spatial structure of the convective cloud is presented. Treating q,v saturated at the echo area, the retrieved qr is about 0.1 g kg-1, qc is always less than 0.3 g kg-1, w is usually below 0.5 m s-1, and rain droplet terminal velocity (vr) is around 5.0 m s-1 in the place where radar reflectivity factor is about 25 dBz; in the place where echo is 45 dBz, the retrieved qr and qc are always about 3.0 g kg-1, w is greater than 5.0 m s-1, and vr is around 7.0 m s-1. In the vertical, the maximum updraft velocity is greater than 3.0 m s-1 at the height of around 5.0 kin, the maximum cloud water content is about 3.0 g kg-1 above 5 km and the maximum rain water content is about 3.0 g kg-1 below 6 kin. Due to the assumption that the cloud is in static state, there will be some errors in the retrieved variables within the clouds which axe rapidly growing or dying-out, and in such cases, more sophisticated radar data control technique will help to improve the retrieval results.     

Numerical Simulation Study on the Impacts of Tropospheric and CO_2 Concentration Changes on Winter Wheat. Part I: Model Description

Ozone is well documented as the air pollutant most damaging to agricultural crops and other plants. It is reported that tropospheric O3 concentration increases rapidly in recent 20 years. Evaluating and predicting impacts of ozone concentration changes on crops are drawing great attention in the scientific community. In China, main study method about this filed is controlled experiments, for example, Open Top Chambers. But numerical simulation study about impacts of ozone on crops with crop model was developed slowly, what is more, the study about combined impacts of ozone and carbon dioxide has not been reported. The improved agroecosystem model is presented to evaluate simultaneously impacts of tropospheric O3 and CO2 concentration changes on crops in the paper by integrating algorithms about impacts of ozone on photosynthesis with an existing agroecosystem biogeochemical model (named as DNDC). The main physiological processes of crop growth (phenology, leaf area index, photosynthesis, respiration, assimilated allocation and so on) in the former DNDC are kept. The algorithms about impacts of ozone on photosynthesis and winter wheat leaf are added in the modified DNDC model in order to reveal impacts of ozone and carbon dioxide on growth, development, and yield formation of winter wheat by coupling the simulation about impacts of carbon dioxide on photosynthesis of winter wheat which exists in the former DNDC. In the paper, firstly assimilate allocation algorithms and some genetic parameters (such as daily thermal time of every development stage) were modified in order that DNDC can be applicable in North China. Secondly impacts of ozone on crops were simulated with two different methods- one was impacts of ozone on light use efficiency, and the other was direct effects of ozone on leaves photosynthesis. The latter simulated results are closer to experiment measurements through comparing their simulating results. At last the method of direct impacts of ozone on leaf growth is adopted and the coefficients about impacts of ozone on leaf growth and death are ascertained. Effects of climate changes, increasing ozone, and carbon dioxide concentration on agroecosystem are tried to be simulated numerically in the study which is considered to be advanced and credible.     

An Updated Coupled Model for Land-Atmosphere Interaction. Part Ⅰ: Simulations of Physical Processes

A new two-way land-atmosphere interaction model (R42_AVIM) is fulfilled by coupling the spectral at- mospheric model (SAMIL_R42L9) developed at the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmo- spheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sci- ences (LASG/IAP/CAS) with the land surface model, Atmosphere-Vegetation-Interaction-Model (AVIM). In this coupled model, physical and biological components of AVIM are both included. Climate base state and land surface physical fluxes simulated by R42_AVIM are analyzed and compared with the results of R42_SSIB [which is coupled by SAMIL_R42L9 and Simplified Simple Biosphere (SSIB) models]. The results show the performance of the new model is closer to the observations. It can basically guarantee that the land surface energy budget is balanced, and can simulate June-July-August (JJA) and December-January- February (DJF) land surface air temperature, sensible heat flux, latent heat flux, precipitation, sea level pressure and other variables reasonably well. Compared with R42_SSIB, there are obvious improvements in the JJA simulations of surface air temperature and surface fluxes. Thus, this land-atmosphere coupled model will offer a good experiment platform for land-atmosphere interaction research.     

Application of Radar Reflectivity Factor in Initializing Cloud-Resolving Mesoscale Model. Part Ⅰ： Retrieval of Microphysical Elements and Vertical Velocity

Assuming that cloud reaches static state in the warm microphysical processes, water vapor mixing ratio （qv）, cloud water mixing ratio （qc）, and vertical velocity （w） can be calculated from rain water mixing ratio （qr）. Through relation of Z-qr, qr can be retrieved by radar reflectivity factor （Z）. Retrieval results indicate that the distributions of mixing ratios of vapor, cloud, rain, and vertical velocity are consistent with radar images, and the three-dimensional spatial structure of the convective cloud is presented. Treating qv saturated at the echo area, the retrieved qr is about 0.1 g kg^-1, qc is always less than 0.3 g kg^-1, w is usually below 0.5 m s^-1, and rain droplet terminal velocity （vr） is around 5.0 m s^-1 in the place where radar reflectivity factor is about 25 dBz; in the place where echo is 45 dBz, the retrieved qr and qc are always about 3.0 g kg^-1, w is greater than 5.0 m s^-1, and vr is around 7.0 m s^-1. In the vertical, the maximum updraft velocity is greater than 3.0 m s^-1 at the height of around 5.0 km, the maximum cloud water content is about 3.0 g kg^-1 above 5 km and the maximum rain water content is about 3.0 g kg^-1 below 6 km. Due to the assumption that the cloud is in static state, there will be some errors in the retrieved variables within the clouds which are rapidly growing or dying-out, and in such cases, more sophisticated radar data control technique will help to improve the retrieval results.     

Numerical Simulation for the Impact of Deforestation on Climate in China and Its Neighboring Regions

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Assimilation of FY-3D MWTS-Ⅱ Radiance with 3D Precipitation Detection and the Impacts on Typhoon Forecasts

Precipitation detection is an essential step in radiance assimilation because the uncertainties in precipitation would affect the radiative transfer calculation and observation errors. The traditional precipitation detection method for microwave only detects clouds and precipitation horizontally, without considering the three-dimensional distribution of clouds.Extending precipitation detection from 2D to 3D is expected to bring more useful information to the data assimilation without using the a...     

Effect of Baroclinicity on Vortex Axisymmetrization. Part Ⅰ:Barotropic Basic Vortex

The barotropic and baroclinic disturbances axisymmetrized by the barotropic basic vortex are examined in an idealized modeling framework consisting of two layers. Using a Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin approach, the radial propagation of a baroclinic disturbance is shown to be slower than a barotropic disturbance, resulting in a slower linear axisymmetrization for baroclinic disturbances. The slower-propagating baroclinic waves also cause more baroclinic asymmetric kinetic energy to be transferred directly to the barotropic symmetric vortex than from barotropic disturbances, resulting in a faster axisymmetrization process in the nonlinear baroclinic wave case than in the nonlinear barotropic wave case.     

Application of Linear Thermodynamics to the Atmospheric System. Part Ⅰ: Linear Phenomenological Relations and Thermodynamic Property of the Atmospheric System

从一般的热力学原理或其它自然原理对唯象关系所强加的限制，能够演绎出大气系统的一系列热力学性质。利用非平衡态线性热力学导出了湍流K闭合理论中湍流交换系数同唯象系数的关系，从理论上证明大气系统热量湍流输送同水泡之间存在交叉耦合，还导出了湍流强度同速度和位温梯度的关系，从而证明速度和位温空间分布的非均匀性是湍流之源。并证明湍流强度定理，不可压缩气体和各向同性湍流大气中，湍流强度正比于速度与位温梯度的标积。进而证明大气涡旋定理，位温的切变将导致涡旋运动或各种环流运动，速度涡度等于速度同位温相对梯度的矢积。展现了线性热力学在大气系统的应用前景。     

Meridional Wind Stress Anomalies over Tropical Pacific and the Onset of El Nino. Part Ⅰ: Data Analysis

对热带太平洋海表经向风应力异常与EI Nino事件之间的关系进行了诊断分析。结果表明，超前的经向风应力距平场与NINO3区(150°-90°W，5°S-5°N)的海面温度异常(SSTA)有显著的超前相关，这种相关性在超前6个月甚至更早一些就有显示。利用奇异值分解方法分析超前的经向风应力距平场与太平洋海表温度异常场之间的耦合模，结果表明对应于赤道中东太平洋的海面温度异常升高，大气风应力场在超前6个月甚至更早的时候，在赤道中东太平洋表现为辐合的经向异常风应力场，即赤道以北为北风异常应力，赤道以南为南风异常应力。这种耦合模的时间系数与NINO3 SSTA指数所表示的El Nino事件有很好的对应关系，表明这种耦合模反映的正是超前的经向风应力异常与El Nino事件所对应的海表温度异常之间的相关模态。通过与热带西太平洋纬向风应力异常的比较，赤道中东太平洋辐合的经向风应力异常与El Nino事件发生的同样具有重要的联系。     

Development and Validation of an Evaporation Duct Model.Part Ⅰ:Model Establishment and Sensitivity Experiments

Based on the Coupled Ocean-Atmospheric Response Experiment（COARE）bulk algorithm and the Naval Postgraduate School（NPS）model,a universal evaporation duct（UED）model that can flexibly accommodate the latest improvements in component（such as stability function,velocity roughness,and scalar roughness）schemes for different stratification and wind conditions,is proposed in this paper.With the UED model,the sensitivity of the model-derived evaporation duct height（EDH）to stability function（Ψ）,ocean wave effect under moderate to high wind speeds,and scalar roughness length parameterization,is investigated,and relative contributions of these factors are compared.The results show that the stability function is a key factor influencing the simulated EDH values.Under unstable conditions,the EDH values from stability functions of Fairall et al.（1996）and Hu and Zhang（1992）are generally higher than those from others;while under stable conditions,unreasonably high EDHs can be avoided by use of the stability functions of Hu and Zhang（1992）and Grachev et al.（2007）.Under moderate to high wind speeds,the increase in velocity roughness length z₀ due to consideration of the true ocean wave effect acts to reduce modeled EDH values;this trend is more pronounced under stable conditions.Although the scalar roughness length parameterization has a minor effect on the model-derived EDH,a positive correlation is found between the scalar roughness length z_0qand the model-derived EDH.     

Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Production in the Sahel – Part 1. Methodological Approach and Case Study for Millet in Niger

In the last 30 years the climate of the West African Sahel has shown various changes, especially in terms of rainfall, of which inter-annual variabilityis very high. This has significant consequences for the poor-resource farmers, whose incomes depend mainly on rainfed agriculture. The West African Sahel is already known as an area characterized by important interaction between climate variability and key socio-economic sectors such as agriculture and water resources. More than 80% of the 55 million population of West African Sahel is rural, involved in agriculture and stock-farming, the two sectors contributing almost 35% of the countries' GDPs. It is thereforeobvious that climate change seriously affects the economies of these countries. Adding to this situation the high rate of population increase(3%), leading to progressive pressure upon ecosystems, and poorsanitary facilities, one comes to the conclusion that Sahelian countries, Niger amongst them, will be highly vulnerable to climate change.This paper investigates the impact of current climate variability and future climate change on millet production for three major millet-producing regions in Niger. Statistical models have been used to predict the effects of climate change on future production on the basis of thirteen available predictors. Based on the analysis of the past 30-years of rainfall and production data, the most significant predictors of the model are (i) seasurface temperature anomalies, (ii) the amount of rainfall in July, August and September, (iii) the number of rainy days and (iv) the wind erosion factor. In 2025, production of millet is estimated to be about 13% lower as a consequence of climate change, translated into a reduction of the total amount of rainfall for July, August and September, combined with an increase in temperature while maintaining other significant predictors at a constant level. Subsequently,various potential strategies to compensate this loss are evaluated, including those to increase water use efficiency and to cultivate varieties that are adapted to such circumstances.