How do Unmodeled Systematic Mean Sea Level Variations Affect Long-term Sea Level Trend Estimates from Tide Gauge Data?

Although there are over 1,800 globally distributed tide gauge stations, only a few hundred of them are suitable for monitoring and analyzing global mean sea level (MSL) changes. This is because several tide gauge records span short periods of time and therefore their trend estimates are adversely affected by unmodeled systematic sea level changes such as seasonal, interannual, decadal variations. This limitation can be improved by using more elaborate models that account for systematic fluctuations in MSL for shorter time-series. In this study, analytic expressions were derived to analyze and quantify the epoch-by-epoch and lump-sum effects of these systematic changes to the local MSL trend estimates as a function of the time-series‘ lengths. The numerical results reveal that systematic MSL variations, particularly transient/episodic ones, if they are not properly modeled or omitted from the models, will bias the trend estimates for the tide gauge data series around the world by up to 0.6 mm/year for the 50-year time-series that are needed for more reliable inferences about global MSL. Random effects, which are not a factor in estimating MSL trends for the long-term (>50 years) time-series, need to be scrutinized together with the systematic errors for time-series shorter than 50 years.     

Forecasting sea level anomalies from TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason-1 satellite altimetry

This paper aims at the prediction of both global mean sea level anomalies (SLAs) and gridded SLA data in the east equatorial Pacific obtained from TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason-1 altimetric measurements. The first prediction technique (denoted as LS) is based on the extrapolation of a polynomial-harmonic deterministic least-squares model describing a linear trend, annual and semi-annual oscillations. The second prediction method (denoted as LS + AR) is a combination of the extrapolation of a polynomial-harmonic model with the autoregressive forecast of LS residuals. In the case of forecasting global mean SLA data, both techniques allow one to compute the predictions of comparable accuracy (root mean square error for 1-month in the future is of 0.5 cm). In the case of predicting gridded SLA data, the LS + AR prediction method gains significantly better prediction accuracy than the accuracy obtained by the LS technique during El Niño 1997/1998, La Niña 1998/1999 and during normal conditions.     

联合Argo浮标、卫星测高和GRACE数据研究海平面变化

卫星测高、GRACE、Argo等数据为监测海平面变化提供了丰富的观测数据,利用Argo数据计算的比容海平面变化,可以更加深入地理解卫星测高以及卫星重力获得的海平面变化。利用2004年1月至2010年12月间Argo浮标采集的温度和盐度数据,通过数值积分方法计算了65°S~65°N间的比容海平面异常,并通过最小二乘拟合得到比容海平面变化的长期趋势为0.63±0.45 mm/a,与Llovel得到的结果吻合较好。利用卫星测高数据得到该时间段内海平面变化趋势为2.52±0.71 mm/a,GRACE反演得到的海水质量变化引起的海平面趋势为1.84±0.13mm/a,结果表明海水质量变化成为引起海平面变化的主要因素。最后对联合卫星测高、GRACE得到比容海平面变化与相应Argo浮标数据计算结果的空间分布特征进行了比较。     

利用TOPEX/Poseidon卫星测高资料监测全球海平面变化

本文利用１９９３年１月至１９９９年５月的ＴＯＰＥＸ／Ｐｏｓｅｉｄｏｎ卫星测高数据计算了全球海平变化。海平面模型误差和不恰当的加权方法都会影响全球海平面序列的周年变化,潮汐模型误差对于季节性变化有明显的影响。利用两个高度计算的海平面变化存在周年变化存在明显的差异,利用ＴＯＰＥＸ高度计和Ｐｏｓｅｉｄｏｎ高度计得到的该时段全球平均海平面的变化率分别为２．０ｍｍ／ａ和－０．５ｍｍ／ａ。与南方涛动指数的比较     

Sea level change in Hong Kong from tide gauge measurements of 1954–1999

 Tide gauge records of Hong Kong covering the past 45 years (1954.0–1999.0) are adopted to analyze the basic features of sea level changes in the region. Data sets of atmospheric pressure, southern oscillation index and sea surface temperature during the same time span are also used to determine the possible link between the sea level changes in Hong Kong and local and global geophysical processes. Results indicate that the sea level of Hong Kong has a rising trend of 1.9 ± 0.4 mm per year, and that there is an upward offset of about 15 cm in the pre-1957.0 tide gauge records. The effect of local atmospheric pressure variations on the amplitude of the annual sea level change is about 30% of the amplitude that is calculated after the effect is corrected. It is also found that the interannual variations in the sea level of Hong Kong are related to El Ni?o and La Ni?a events that happen frequently in the tropical Pacific. Received: 27 October 1999 / Accepted: 15 August 2000     

遥感和GIS技术在全球海面风速分析中的应用

将遥感技术和地理信息系统（GIS）技术相结合，建立了一个基于TOPEX卫星的全球海面风速分析的海洋地理信息系统（MGIS）。阐述了全球海面风速分析模型的建立方法，定义了描述风场特征的相关参数，介绍了全球海面风速海洋地理信息系统的结构、功能和工作流程，另外，对系统的3个应用实例进行了地学分析。     

Seasonal global mean sea level change from satellite altimeter, GRACE, and geophysical models

We estimate seasonal global mean sea level changes using different data resources, including sea level anomalies from satellite radar altimetry, ocean temperature and salinity from the World Ocean Atlas 2001, time-variable gravity observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission, and terrestrial water storage and atmospheric water vapor changes from the NASA global land data assimilation system and National Centers for Environmental Prediction reanalysis atmospheric model. The results from all estimates are consistent in amplitude and phase at the annual period, in some cases with remarkably good agreement. The results provide a good measure of average annual variation of water stored within atmospheric, land, and ocean reservoirs. We examine how varied treatments of degree-2 and degree-1 spherical harmonics from GRACE, laser ranging, and Earth rotation variations affect GRACE mean sea level change estimates. We also show that correcting the standard equilibrium ocean pole tide correction for mass conservation is needed when using satellite altimeter data in global mean sea level studies. These encouraging results indicate that is reasonable to consider estimating longer-term time series of water storage in these reservoirs, as a way of tracking climate change.     

Continental mass change from GRACE over 2002–2011 and its impact on sea level

Present-day continental mass variation as observed by space gravimetry reveals secular mass decline and accumulation. Whereas the former contributes to sea-level rise, the latter results in sea-level fall. As such, consideration of mass accumulation (rather than focussing solely on mass loss) is important for reliable overall estimates of sea-level change. Using data from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment satellite mission, we quantify mass-change trends in 19 continental areas that exhibit a dominant signal. The integrated mass change within these regions is representative of the variation over the whole land areas. During the integer 9-year period of May 2002 to April 2011, GIA-adjusted mass gain and mass loss in these areas contributed, on average, to ?(0.7 ± 0.4) mm/year of sea-level fall and + (1.8 ± 0.2) mm/year of sea-level rise; the net effect was + (1.1 ± 0.6) mm/year. Ice melting over Greenland, Iceland, Svalbard, the Canadian Arctic archipelago, Antarctica, Alaska and Patagonia was responsible for + (1.4±0.2) mm/year of the total balance. Hence, land-water mass accumulation compensated about 20 % of the impact of ice-melt water influx to the oceans. In order to assess the impact of geocentre motion, we converted geocentre coordinates derived from satellite laser ranging (SLR) to degree-one geopotential coefficients. We found geocentre motion to introduce small biases to mass-change and sea-level change estimates; its overall effect is + (0.1 ± 0.1) mm/year. This value, however, should be taken with care owing to questionable reliability of secular trends in SLR-derived geocentre coordinates.     

Impacts of large-scale climatic disturbances on the terrestrial carbon cycle

Background

The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere steadily increases as a consequence of anthropogenic emissions but with large interannual variability caused by the terrestrial biosphere. These variations in the CO₂ growth rate are caused by large-scale climate anomalies but the relative contributions of vegetation growth and soil decomposition is uncertain. We use a biogeochemical model of the terrestrial biosphere to differentiate the effects of temperature and precipitation on net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) during the two largest anomalies in atmospheric CO₂ increase during the last 25 years. One of these, the smallest atmospheric year-to-year increase (largest land carbon uptake) in that period, was caused by global cooling in 1992/93 after the Pinatubo volcanic eruption. The other, the largest atmospheric increase on record (largest land carbon release), was caused by the strong El Niño event of 1997/98.

Results

We find that the LPJ model correctly simulates the magnitude of terrestrial modulation of atmospheric carbon anomalies for these two extreme disturbances. The response of soil respiration to changes in temperature and precipitation explains most of the modelled anomalous CO₂ flux.

Conclusion

Observed and modelled NEE anomalies are in good agreement, therefore we suggest that the temporal variability of heterotrophic respiration produced by our model is reasonably realistic. We therefore conclude that during the last 25 years the two largest disturbances of the global carbon cycle were strongly controlled by soil processes rather then the response of vegetation to these large-scale climatic events.     

联合时变重力数据与测高数据反演全球海平面变化及其分量贡献

理解全球海平面变化具有十分重要的意义,它间接反映了地球系统中气候性相关因素的变化。本文基于一组海平面指纹和比容经验正交函数,联合时变重力数据和卫星测高数据反演了2002年4月至2020年2月的全球海平面变化,将全球海平面变化分解成南极冰盖融化、格陵兰冰盖融化、陆地冰川融化、陆地水储量变化、冰川均衡调整和海水比容效应这6个分量的贡献。联合反演结果显示,全球平均比容海平面变化为1.08±0.05 mm/a,与相关文献的结果相吻合。研究发现,联合测高数据和时变重力数据的反演方法能够一定程度上减弱GRACE Follow-On卫星时期海水质量变化被低估的现象。本文利用联合反演的结果研究了区域海平面变化,在大部分近海区域反演效果较好,这表明该方法可用于区域海平面变化的研究。     

中国近海1992～1998海平面变化监测与分析

利用Topex/Poseidon和ERS-1卫星测高资料采用“共线”法计算出1992-10～1998-06中国近海海域海平面及其变化。在扣除T/P卫星测高仪的零点漂移影响后,发现与全球海平面上升率(+2.1±1.3)mm/a相比,不同海域的海平面变化趋势大不相同,黄、东、南海的海平面年变化率分别为：(+3.44±0.61)mm/a,(+3.12±0.47)mm/a,(-1.41±0.48)mm/a。从海平面变化异常中可以看出1993,1994,1997～1998年3次El Nino异常对中国近海海域海平面的影响是南海海域最大,东海次之,黄海最小。除了对海平面进行传统的频谱分析外,还进行了多分辨率的小波分析,还发现在上述3个海域中除了年周期变化较为稳定外,半年及季节(100 d)周期项存在着时间漂移。此外,在上述3个海域还存在着明显的两个月(62 d)周期的变化,其激发原因在此做了初步探讨。     

Recent glacier changes in the Kashmir Alpine Himalayas,India

Using Landsat data at decadal interval (1980–2013), the glacier fluctuations (glacier area, equilibrium line altitude and specific mass balance) of nine benchmark glaciers in Kashmir Himalaya were estimated. The observed changes were related to topographic and climatic variables in order to understand their influence. From the data analysis, it was observed that the glaciers have shrunk by 17%, ELA has shifted upwards (80–300 m) and SMB shows variation in glacier mass loss from ?0.77 to ?0.16 m.w.e. Annual air temperature showed a significant increasing trend, and a slight but insignificant decrease in precipitation was observed during the period. It is evident that in the same climatic regime, varying topography plays a key role in determining the glacier changes. It is believed that the observed changes in the glacier geometry and dynamics, if continued, shall have adverse effect on the streamflows, water supplies and other dependent sectors in the region.     

Elevation change around Dome A region of Antarctica from EnviSat satellite radar altimetry during 2002–2012

The expected responses of ice sheets to climate warming are growth in the thickness of the inland ice areas and thinning near the margins. In recent decades, researchers have identified glacier acceleration along Antarctic ice sheet coastal margins. However, the study of ice sheet interiors where seasonal accumulation eventually balances ice wastage at the lower elevation is poorly understood. In this paper, the ice sheet elevation change around Dome A region is analyzed from 2002 to 2012 using two million elevation change measurements from EnviSat satellite radar altimeter data covering an area of about 7000 km². A declining trend of 0.572 ± 1.31 mm/year which means that the Dome A region was in balance during the last decade can be captured. In addition, two obvious changes in accumulation which divide elevation change time series into three independent equilibration stages are also extracted. In order to explain this phenomenon, two speculations related to snowfall and firn compaction are proposed in this paper.     

Soil salinity and vegetation cover change detection from multi-temporal remotely sensed imagery in Al Hassa Oasis in Saudi Arabia

Detecting soil salinity changes and its impact on vegetation cover are necessary to understand the relationships between these changes in vegetation cover. This study aims to determine the changes in soil salinity and vegetation cover in Al Hassa Oasis over the past 28 years and investigates whether the salinity change causing the change in vegetation cover. Landsat time series data of years 1985, 2000 and 2013 were used to generate Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Soil Salinity Index (SI) images, which were then used in image differencing to identify vegetation and salinity change/no-change for two periods. Soil salinity during 2000–2013 exhibits much higher increase compared to 1985–2000, while the vegetation cover declined to 6.31% for the same period. Additionally, highly significant (p < 0.0001) negative relationships found between the NDVI and SI differencing images, confirmed the potential long-term linkage between the changes in soil salinity and vegetation cover.     

Africa and the global carbon cycle

The African continent has a large and growing role in the global carbon cycle, with potentially important climate change implications. However, the sparse observation network in and around the African continent means that Africa is one of the weakest links in our understanding of the global carbon cycle. Here, we combine data from regional and global inventories as well as forward and inverse model analyses to appraise what is known about Africa's continental-scale carbon dynamics. With low fossil emissions and productivity that largely compensates respiration, land conversion is Africa's primary net carbon release, much of it through burning of forests. Savanna fire emissions, though large, represent a short-term source that is offset by ensuing regrowth. While current data suggest a near zero decadal-scale carbon balance, interannual climate fluctuations (especially drought) induce sizeable variability in net ecosystem productivity and savanna fire emissions such that Africa is a major source of interannual variability in global atmospheric CO₂. Considering the continent's sizeable carbon stocks, their seemingly high vulnerability to anticipated climate and land use change, as well as growing populations and industrialization, Africa's carbon emissions and their interannual variability are likely to undergo substantial increases through the 21st century.     

联合卫星重力、卫星测高和海洋资料研究全球海平面变化

利用GRACE、卫星测高和海洋实测温盐数据,探讨了2003~2012年间全球海平面、比容海平面和海水质量等的变化特征,并讨论了南极冰盖和格陵兰冰盖消融对全球海平面变化的影响。全球海平面整体呈上升趋势,上升速度为2.72±0.07 mm/a,且存在显著的空间分布特征。全球海平面、比容海平面和海水质量等的变化还具有显著的季节性特征,其中全球海平面变化的年周期振幅为4.6±0.3 mm。使用经验正交函数分析(EOF)得到全球海平面和比容海平面的季节性变化在南北半球存在显著的差异,但海水质量季节性变化不存在这种差异。南极冰盖和格陵兰冰盖的消融速率分别为-75.7±12.3 Gt/a和-124.1±2.9 Gt/a,对海平面的长期趋势项贡献分别为0.21±0.03 mm/a和0.34±0.01 mm/a,仅占全球海水质量增加速度1.80±0.10 mm/a的12%和19%,总计占31%,因此,两极冰盖质量消融并不是2003-2012年间海水质量增加的最主要因素。     

Pacific climate variability and the possible impact on global surface CO2 flux

Background  

Climate variability modifies both oceanic and terrestrial surface CO2 flux. Using observed/assimilated data sets, earlier studies have shown that tropical oceanic climate variability has strong impacts on the land surface temperature and soil moisture, and that there is a negative correlation between the oceanic and terrestrial CO2 fluxes. However, these data sets only cover less than the most recent 20 years and are insufficient for identifying decadal and longer periodic variabilities. To investigate possible impacts of interannual to interdecadal climate variability on CO2 flux exchange, the last 125 years of an earth system model (ESM) control run are examined.     

Contribution of new AAM data source to δLOD excitation

Data sets of the changes of the length of day (ΔLOD) measured by space geodetic techniques and of the atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) derived from global meteorological data by the National Meteorological Center (NMC) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) are used to reanalyze and study the excitations of ΔLOD, and to examine and compare the contribution of each AAM series to ΔLOD. The main results are as follows. 1. The AAM reanalyzed with the assimilated global meteorological data by NCEP/NCAR are more accurate and have lower noise than the original AAM derived by NMC. The NCEP/NCAR-based AAM is more consistent with the changes of the length-of-day series. 2. The NCEP reanalysed AAM data may better explain the non-tidal LOD variations on intraseasonal to interannual time scales, especially on the quasi-biennial time scale. The atmosphere cannot, however, explain all LOD variations; other excitation sources are possible. 3. The effects of atmosphere on the estimated values of tides for ΔLOD components up to a month are weak. The preliminary results of the annual and semiannual tides can be estimated after removing the effects of atmosphere from ΔLOD. Received: 27 May 1998 / Accepted: 22 March 1999     

卫星测高推求的中国近海与全球海平面变化的趋势及小波相关分析

基于多种卫星测高资料融合海面高数据对黄海、东海、南海和全球海平面异常在1993年至2005年期间的变化趋势进行分析,结果表明:黄海、东海、南海线性趋势分别为5.05mm/a,4.8mm/a,4.27mm/a,均大于全球平均趋势项2.66mm/a,各海域的周期振幅和相位变化也存在较大差异。近海各海域与全球的海平面异常的小波交叉谱和相关谱分析表明,近海各海域与全球海平面异常变化在年际周期上具有较高的谱能,但相位差异较大,短周期相关性不明显。     

Land change attribution based on Landsat time series and integration of ancillary disturbance data in the Athabasca oil sands region of Canada

The Alberta Oil Sands (AOS) is a unique area in Canada undergoing significant disturbance and recovery due to a variety of anthropogenic and natural factors. Accurately quantifying these changes in space and time is important for assessing ecosystem status and trends. In this research, we implemented an approach to combine Landsat time series for the period 1984–2012 with ancillary change datasets to derive detailed change attribution in the AOS. Detected changes were attributed to causes including fire, forest harvest, surface mining, insect damage, flooding, regeneration, and several generic change classes (abrupt/gradual, with/without regeneration) with accuracies ranging from 74% to 100% for classes that occurred frequently. Lower accuracies were found for the generic gradual change classes which accounted for less than 3% of the affected area. Timing of abrupt change events were generally well captured to within ±1 year. For gradual changes timing was less accurate and variable by change type. A land-cover time series was also created to provide information on “from-to” change. A basic accuracy assessment of the land cover showed it to be of moderate accuracy, approximately 69%. Results show that fire was the major cause of change in the region. As expected, surface mine development and related activities have increased since 2000. Insect damage has become a more significant agent of change in the region. Further investigation is required to determine if insect damage is greater than past historical events and to determine if industrial development is linked to the increasing trend observed.