Tidal Changes and Coastal Hazards: Past,Present and Future

A review is presented of the nature of tidal changes and their importance in the context of coastal hazards. This is done in order to illustrate the way in which tides do and may impact on the coast as a hazard and highlight the need for research to be carried out in this context. Three main aspects of tides are significant in this respect – these are: (1) tidal heights, including tidal range and the asymmetry or otherwise of the flood/ebb cycle; (2) tidal currents, the speed and direction of which affect sediment movement, sources and sinks; and (3) tidal mixing of fresh water with water of varying levels of salinity and differing temperatures. A variety of tools, from geological data to modelling, and tide gauges to satellites, may be used to assess tidal changes. Tides form the basis on which all other coastal processes operate and are therefore important with regard to the physical, chemical and biological hazards in the coastal zone. There is an urgent need to study tidal changes – both their nature and causes – in order to ensure successful coastal management.     

气候变化脆弱性及其国际研究进展

脆弱性一词广泛应用于不同的学科群体,由于各自学科研究传统和知识背景的差异,对脆弱性的理解和界定具有很大的差异性.依据近年来国外在该领域的主要研究成果,总结和综述了气候变化脆弱性概念的基本要素、脆弱性因素的分类特征;梳理了国际研究在灾害与权利的关系、社会和生态的综合集成方面的主流和进展;分析了脆弱性研究在度量、实证和治理应用等方面的主要挑战和方向.     

中国冻土对气候变化的脆弱性

冻土的脆弱性是指冻土对气候变化的脆弱性,是冻土易受气候变化,尤其是温度变化不利影响的程度. 研究冻土对气候变化的脆弱性是提高对自然生态系统、工程系统、生态-社会-经济系统对冻土变化影响的脆弱性的认知,科学适应冻土变化诸种影响的前提和基础. 基于科学性与实际相结合的原则、全面性与主导性原则、可操作性原则,以暴露度、敏感性与适应能力为标准,遴选构建了我国冻土脆弱性评价指标体系. 借助RS与GIS技术平台,使用空间主成分方法,构建了冻土脆弱性指数模型,在区域尺度上综合评价了冻土的脆弱性. 依据自然分类法,将冻土脆弱性分为潜在脆弱、轻度脆弱、中度脆弱、强度脆弱与极强度脆弱5级. 结果表明：总体上我国冻土以中度脆弱为主,但青藏高原多年冻土对气候变化尤为脆弱;冻土脆弱性具有显著的地域分布特点,青藏高原、西部高山、东北多年冻土区脆弱性相对较高,季节冻土区相对较低. 与季节冻土相比,多年冻土对气候变化更脆弱. 在当前升温幅度条件下,冻土脆弱程度主要取决于冻土的地形暴露与冻土对气候变化的适应能力.     

Atmospheric Circulation and Inland Flooding in Twentieth Century North Carolina,USA: Implications for Climate Change Impacts?

Widespread inland floods for 20th century North Carolina, USA were defined from stream flow records as events where flow was more than one standard deviation above the mean annual peak for at least two contiguous drainage basins simultaneously. Thirty-one events were identified. One snowmelt flood was detected. For the others, synoptic causes were identified from precipitation and circulation data. Eight events were directly related to hurricanes. Each required a precursor storm, often another hurricane, to provide sufficient precipitation to overcome the dry soils and low stream flows of the autumnal hurricane season. The decadal frequencies of these floods were poorly correlated with the total number of hurricanes, with no hurricane floods between 1955 and 1999 despite frequent hurricanes. Further, most events involved slow-moving decaying systems, not intense ones. An increase in hurricane intensity, often suggested as a consequence of climate change, may lead to fewer floods. The other floods were produced by either extra-tropical storms or squall lines, and precursor systems were also needed. These floods were common in the first and last three decades of the century, virtually absent in the middle four. This corresponded to a small dip in the total number of cyclones, and to periods of rising temperature statewide. This suggests a future increase in North Carolina floods as global temperatures increase. However, the synoptic causes of the relationship are not clear, and detailed quantitative analyses of recent events are required.     

Coastal Inundation due to Sea Level Rise in the Pearl River Delta,China

This paper examines the increased potential risk of tidalinundations in the Pearl River delta, China, due to futurerises in sea level. The research is based on tidal recordsof 54 tide gauges distributed across the delta plain, andemploys mathematical calculations to predict potentialrises of water level in different parts of the delta undera number of flood scenarios. After assessing a 72-yeartidal record of Hong Kong and factors such as estuarinebackwater effects and long-term geological subsidence,it suggests that a 30 cm rise in relative sea level at themouth of the estuary is possible by 2030. Based on theprediction and five freshwater discharge scenarios, thepotential impacts on water levels across the delta plain arecalculated. Three zones are identified as least affected,heavily affected and severely affected. The impacts arealso translated into return periods of water level. It issuggested that in a large part of the delta plain, returnperiods will be shortened and hence will be increasinglyvulnerable to tidal inundation. Finally, managementimplications are discussed along with assessment ofthe adequacy of the existing tidal flood defences, as well asevaluation of the cost implications if they are to be improved.     

压实作用下广西典型红树林区沉积速率及海平面上升对红树林迁移效应的制衡

气候变化造成的海平面上升是迫使红树林向陆迁移的主要驱动力, 而其自身通过捕沙促淤不同程度的减缓了海平面上升速率的影响。基于广西典型红树林区8根短柱的210Pb测年和含水率分析, 以考虑/未考虑沉积物压实作用为研究情景, 通过对比研究红树林区潮滩地表高程抬升速率和相对海平面上升速率的大小关系, 揭示当前海平面上升对广西红树林向陆/向海迁移的驱动机制。研究发现:未考虑压实作用下的沉积速率约是考虑压实作用下沉积速率的1.00~1.34倍(平均1.12倍), 压实作用明显;压实沉积速率介于0.16~0.78 cm/a, 其底层压实沉积速率与潮滩地表高程抬升速率相等。压实作用下, 英罗湾和丹兜海红树林区的地表高程抬升速率小于相对海平面上升速率;与未考虑压实作用得到的结论相悖。由于广西红树林海岸大都建有防波堤, 限制了红树林向陆的迁移;表明英罗湾和丹兜海的红树林正面临海平面上升的威胁。压实作用校正与否对地表高程抬升速率与相对海平面上升速率相当的区域尤为重要。     

Climate shifts and coastal changes in a geological perspective. A contribution to integrated coastal zone management

This Special Issue deals with the impact of climate change on western European coastal systems. Notwithstanding the inherent problems of studying geological data in terms of climate shifts, the results show that on the meso- and the macroscale of time, climatic forcing is a major drive for coastal change. However, its impact is largely influenced by other factors. Sediment availability plays a dominant role in the evolution of coastal systems and it can be considered one of the most important thresholds at the land-ocean interface. Sea-level changes are expected to have a significant impact on most European coasts. There is particular concern for the tidally influenced flats and marshes, and for those coastal areas known to have already a net sediment deficit and to be threatened by erosion. Areas where isostatic uplift has countered sea-level rise until now, are expected to become subject to coastal erosion in the near future under an accelerated sea-level rise scenario. The sensitivity and vulnerability of coastal systems to climate shifts is shown to be largely controlled by storm magnitude and fetch. A particular case of vulnerability is the impact of tsunamis. Finally, the consequences of human interference have been demonstrated in many cases. The implementation of geoscientific studies for rational, comprehensive and cost-effective strategies on a regional or national level of integrated coastal zone management is reviewed.     

Flooding of Sinking Creek,Garretts Spring karst drainage basin,Jessamine and Woodford counties,Kentucky, USA

Tashamingo Subdivision in Sinking Creek karst valley, a tributary of the Garretts Spring drainage basin in Jessamine and Woodford counties, Kentucky, was flooded in February 1989. To determine the cause of flooding, the groundwater basin boundary was mapped, discharge data were measured to determine intake capacity of swallets, and hydrologic modeling of the basin was conducted. Swallet capacity was determined to be limited by the hydraulic parameters of the conduit, rather than by obstruction by trash. Flooding from a precipitation event is more likely, and will be higher, when antecedent soil moisture conditions in the watershed are near saturation. Hydrologic modeling shows that suburban development of 20 percent of the southeast basin will cause a small increase in flood stage at Tashamingo Subdivision.     

An analysis of methods for identifying social vulnerability to climate change and sea level rise: a case study of Hampton Roads,Virginia

Natural Hazards - This paper examines methods for quantitatively identifying communities that have high social vulnerability to environmental hazards. We first provide an overview of the existing...     

Response of large benthic foraminifera to climate and local changes: Implications for future carbonate production

Large benthic foraminifera are major carbonate components in tropical carbonate platforms, important carbonate producers, stratigraphic tools and powerful bioindicators (proxies) of environmental change. The application of large benthic foraminifera in tropical coral reef environments has gained considerable momentum in recent years. These modern ecological assessments are often carried out by micropalaeontologists or ecologists with expertise in the identification of foraminifera. However, large benthic foraminifera have been under-represented in favour of macro reef-builders, for example, corals and calcareous algae. Large benthic foraminifera contribute about 5% to modern reef-scale carbonate sediment production. Their substantial size and abundance are reflected by their symbiotic association with the living algae inside their tests. When the foraminiferal holobiont (the combination between the large benthic foraminifera host and the microalgal photosymbiont) dies, the remaining calcareous test renourishes sediment supply, which maintains and stabilizes shorelines and low-lying islands. Geological records reveal episodes (i.e. late Palaeocene and early Eocene epochs) of prolific carbonate production in warmer oceans than today, and in the absence of corals. This begs for deeper consideration of how large benthic foraminifera will respond under future climatic scenarios of higher atmospheric carbon dioxide (pCO₂) and to warmer oceans. In addition, studies highlighting the complex evolutionary associations between large benthic foraminifera hosts and their algal photosymbionts, as well as to associated habitats, suggest the potential for increased tolerance to a wide range of conditions. However, the full range of environments where large benthic foraminifera currently dwell is not well-understood in terms of present and future carbonate production, and impact of stressors. The evidence for acclimatization, at least by a few species of well-studied large benthic foraminifera, under intensifying climate change and within degrading reef ecosystems, is a prelude to future host–symbiont resilience under different climatic regimes and habitats than today. This review also highlights knowledge gaps in current understanding of large benthic foraminifera as prolific calcium carbonate producers across shallow carbonate shelf and slope environments under changing ocean conditions.     

上扬子克拉通南缘中泥盆统-石炭系高频层序及复合海平面变化

上扬子克拉通南缘中泥盆统—石炭系地层高频层序可以划分为三个级别 ,并与层序地层学术语可以对比 :六级层序—韵律层 ;五级层序—准层序 ;四级层序—准层序组。不同级别高频层序的形成受米兰柯维奇驱动力引起的具不同周期和频率的复合海平面变化控制。克拉通边缘沉积环境中 ,低频海平面变化的上升阶段形成以淹没节拍为主的高频层序 ,而在停滞至下降阶段形成以暴露节拍为主的高频层序。所以 ,通过对不同特征的高频层序及垂向叠加的分析 ,可以求解低频海平面的变化     

Coastal dunes and strandplains in southeast Queensland: Sequence and chronology

Parabolic dunes invade coastal strandplains and overlie prior blown dunes in southeast Queensland. These coastal dune landscapes were produced primarily by real changes in wind strength and frequency. Sand movement began in past glacial ages and in the most recent instance persisted into Holocene time. Four interglacial shores are identified with marine isotope stages 5, 7, 9 and 11, and allow estimation of the ages of the dune and beach sands, by correlation with the EPICA Dome C ice core, as follows: Triangle dune sand, n.d.; Garawongera dune sand, 65 ka; Woorim beach sand, 125 ka; Bribie beach sand, 245 ka; Bowarrady dune sand, 270 ka; Poyungan beach sand, 335 ka; Yankee Jack dune sand, 360 ka; Ungowa beach sand, 410 ka; Awinya dune sand, 430 – 486 ka; Cooloola dune sand, >486 ka.     

Flooding and its relationship with land cover change,population growth,and road density

Bangladesh experiences frequent hydro-climatic disasters such as flooding.These disasters are believed to be associated with land use changes and climate variability.However,identifying the factors that lead to flooding is challenging.This study mapped flood susceptibility in the northeast region of Bangladesh using Bayesian regularization back propagation(BRBP)neural network,classification and regression trees(CART),a statistical model(STM)using the evidence belief function(EBF),and their ensemble models(EMs)for three time periods(2000,2014,and 2017).The accuracy of machine learning algorithms(MLAs),STM,and EMs were assessed by considering the area under the curve-receiver operating char-acteristic(AUC-ROC).Evaluation of the accuracy levels of the aforementioned algorithms revealed that EM4(BRBP-CART-EBF)outperformed(AUC＞90％)standalone and other ensemble models for the three time periods analyzed.Furthermore,this study investigated the relationships among land cover change(LCC),population growth(PG),road density(RD),and relative change of flooding(RCF)areas for the per-iod between 2000 and 2017.The results showed that areas with very high susceptibility to flooding increased by 19.72％between 2000 and 2017,while the PG rate increased by 51.68％over the same period.The Pearson correlation coefficient for RCF and RD was calculated to be 0.496.These findings highlight the significant association between floods and causative factors.The study findings could be valuable to policymakers and resource managers as they can lead to improvements in flood management and reduction in flood damage and risks.     

Paleoshoreline reconstruction: A proposed method to approach submerged prehistoric landscapes of Espiritu Santo Island,Baja California Sur,Mexico

When the first Americans inhabited the area now known as Isla Espiritu Santo, around 12.5 and 6 ka, the sea level continuously rose. This resulted in the loss of the coastal territory and the retreat of the human population further inland. Part of the archaeological evidence of this period currently lies over the seafloor and under the seabed. Therefore, reconstructing paleoshorelines is a necessary first step toward submerged precontact archaeology and a broad understanding of the spatial context in which those human populations interacted and how the landscapes changed. Isla Espiritu Santo is of prehistoric importance as it contains numerous Paleocoastal tradition sites as early as ~12,400 Cal B.P. This research aims to reconstruct the changing shoreline positions as sea levels rose around Isla Espiritu Santo between 12.5 and 6.5 ka. We apply numerical modeling to map digital elevation models at 1 ka intervals by estimating the changes in the morphology of the seafloor according to the deposition rates and global sea-level curve. The results show the evolution of coastal morphology and paleoshoreline's position. Three primary geoforms are proposed: (1) coastal plains, (2) tombolo, and (3) a coastal lagoon–island barrier system. This also offers insights into the physical aspect of submerged prehistoric landscapes and the possible resource exploitation options of early societies. In this research, the reconstruction of submerged landscapes seeks to contribute to the long-term goal of locating submerged precontact sites.     

气候变化影响下水资源脆弱性评估方法及其应用

气候变化和人类活动影响下的水资源脆弱性评价,是将气候变化影响纳入水资源规划管理、提出缓解气候变化不利影响的适应性对策的重要科学依据。针对与气候变化影响的水资源系统的敏感性和抗压性相联系的脆弱性与适应性问题,提出变化环境下水资源脆弱性评估理论体系和一般性公式。进一步,以水资源供需安全为出发点,采用温度、降雨双参数弹性系数和有水资源基础,直观、简单的水资源关键性指标体系方法,提出气候变化和人类活动背景下水资源脆弱性评估模型。将模型应用于缺水最严重的海河流域,评价了现状和未来情境下流域水资源的脆弱性情况。结果表明:整体上海河流域水资源脆弱性偏高,且平原区较山区更脆弱;气候因素对流域水资源的脆弱性影响明显,未来如不采取措施,海河流域的水资源脆弱性将进一步加重。     

贵州扁平紫松晚期-罗甸期的相对海平面变化特征

根据贵州紫云扁平剖面沉积记录，分析了该区在二叠纪早期的相对海平面变化特征。研究表明，扁平地区在早二叠世紫松晚期－罗甸期存在6次连续的三级旋回海平面升降过程，其中，海平面上升速率最快的是第3次旋回；水体深度最大的是第4次旋回；海平面上升幅度最大的是第5次旋回。该时期的Ting类生物事件可能与这些特征有关。     

广东惠来地区早—中侏罗世桥源组海平面相对升降及构造背景的元素地球化学证据

惠来葵潭地区早—中侏罗世桥源组以海相和过渡相沉积为主。对样品进行全岩分析和ICP-MS微量元素分析,常量、微量元素及其比值反映的古盐度高低与古水深的深浅变化受海平面变化升降影响,具正相关。利用反映古盐度和古水深的m值、Sr/Ba、Ca/Mg、B/Ga和Rb/K曲线编制了桥源组海平面相对变化曲线。桥源组显示2次海侵的沉积旋回,海侵发生在桥源组中下部和中上部时期。对样品进行ICP-MS稀土元素分析和砂岩矿物成分分析,根据稀土元素分布模式图和La/Yb-∑REE源岩判别图解判断,桥源组源岩主要来自上地壳的沉积岩、玄武岩和花岗岩。根据Dickinson图解、Zr-Th、La-Th-Sc、Th-Co-Zr/10判别图解和稀土元素特征值综合分析,构造背景为弧后挤压盆地,具有大陆岛弧的特性,但少有被动大陆边缘成分。物源来自于火山弧造山带。     

DRASTIC与同位素方法在内蒙古呼和浩特市地下水防污性评价中的应用

以内蒙古呼和浩特市平原区地下水系统为例,采用传统DRASTIC方法和同位素3H浓度、3H与14C测年的新方法划分了不同的地下水系统防污性能区,开展了地下水系统防污性评价方法研究.研究结果表明, DRASTIC 方法评价结果显示了浅层地下水系统对来自垂向上污染物的固有防御能力;同位素方法评价结果反映了浅、深层含水层系统对来自补给区污染物的防御能力.并且文中指出了两种评价方法各自具有优、缺点.最后指出应根据区域水文地质条件、地下水开发利用现状,以及城市发展规划,采取DRSTIC和同位素辅助方法综合区划地下水系统的防污性能,为环境管理和决策者划分地下水源保护区,制定地下水保护措施提供科学依据.     

Concept,Analytical Framework and Assessment Method of Livelihood Vulnerability

Research on the internal factors and mechanism of livelihood vulnerability, which has become one of the hot spots in sustainable scientific field, can improve the level of livelihood security. This paper reviewed the livelihood vulnerability literature from the perspective of concept, analysis framework, assessment methods. Three conclusions were achieved. Firstly, the scholars' understanding of the concept of livelihood vulnerability has reached consensus. Secondly, the existing evaluation method is lack of multiple perspectives, and the selection of the indicator system is not comprehensive enough. Thirdly, the research on the dynamic mechanism and regulation of livelihood vulnerability and the framework of adaptability will still be further needed. Additionally, some suggestions were given in this paper such as establishing a unified concept system and analysis framework for livelihood vulnerability, improving the evaluation index system and deepening the dynamic mechanism and regulation study of livelihood vulnerability in the study of livelihood vulnerability. In the future, we should gradually unify the livelihood vulnerability analysis framework, enhance the study of driving and regulating mechanisms and evaluation methods of the livelihood vulnerability, promote the research of livelihood vulnerability in the context of national policies and new technologies, and provide a scientific basis for the formulation of related policies.     

重庆市青木关地下河流域岩溶水脆弱性评价的COPK模型

岩溶地下水脆弱性评价对于保护岩溶地下水水质具有至关重要的作用,目前很多的地下水脆弱性评价模型是以现有的水文地质为基础,然而气候变化对岩溶地下水的脆弱性也产生一定的影响。本文利用COPK模型评价2008~2012年降水变化条件下重庆青木关流域岩溶地下水的脆弱性及变化。结果表明,流域地下水脆弱性高的地区主要分布在洼地槽谷地区;流域降水变化对其脆弱性产生明显影响,降水量和极端降雨事件的增加使得岩溶地下水脆弱性高的面积增大。