Interannual and seasonal variation of the Huanghe (Yellow River) water discharge over the past 50 years: Connections to impacts from ENSO events and dams

The Huanghe, the second largest river in China, is now under great pressure as a water resource. Using datasets of river water discharge, water consumption and regional precipitation for the past 50 years, we elucidate some connections between decreasing water discharges, global El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and anthropogenic impacts in the drainage basin. Global ENSO events, which directly affected the regional precipitation in the river basin, resulted in approximately 51% decrease in river water discharge to the sea. The degree of anthropogenic impacts on river water discharge is now as great as that of natural influences, accelerating the water losses in the hydrological cycle. The large dams and reservoirs regulated the water discharge and reduced the peak flows by storing the water in the flood season and releasing it in the dry season as needed for agricultural irrigation. Thus, as a result, large dams and reservoirs have shifted the seasonal distribution patterns of water discharge and water consumption and finally resulted in rapidly increasing water consumption. Meanwhile, the annual distribution pattern of water consumption also changed under the regulation of dams and reservoirs, indicating that the people living in the river basin consume the water more and more to suit actual agricultural schedule rather than depending upon natural pattern of annual precipitation. The combination of the increasing water consumption facilitated by the dams and reservoirs and the decreasing precipitation closely associated with the global ENSO events over the past half century has resulted in water scarcity in this world-famous river, as well as in a number of subsequent serious results for the river, delta and coastal ocean.     

Sediment flux sensitivity to climate change: A case study in the Longchuanjiang catchment of the upper Yangtze River, China

Climate change may affect the sediment generation and transportation processes and the consequent sediment flux in a river. The sensitivity of suspended sediment flux to climate change in the Longchuanjiang catchment is investigated with Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). ANNs were calibrated and validated using sediment flux data from 1960 to 1990 during which the influence from human activities was relatively stable. The established ANN is used to predict the responses of sediment flux to 25 hypothetical climate scenarios, which were generated by adjusting the baseline temperature up to − 1, 1, 2 and 3 °C and by scaling the baseline precipitation by +/− 10% and +/− 20%. The results indicated when temperature remains unchanged, an increase in rainfall will lead to a rise in sediment flux; when rainfall level remains unchanged, an increase in temperature is likely to result in a decrease in sediment flux. Same percentage of changes in rainfall and temperature are likely to trigger higher responses in wetter months than in drier months. However, it is the combination of the change in temperature and rainfall that determines the change of sediment flux in a river. Higher sediment flux is expected to appear under wetter and warmer climate, when higher transport capacity is accompanied by higher erosion rate.     

Recent changes of water discharge and sediment load in the Zhujiang (Pearl River) Basin, China

The paper is concerned with identifying changes in the time series of water and sediment discharge of the Zhujiang (Pearl River), China. The gradual trend test (Mann–Kendall test), and abrupt change test (Pettitt test), have been employed on annual water discharge and sediment load series (from the 1950s–2004) at nine stations in the main channels and main tributaries of the Zhujiang. Both the Mann–Kendall and Pettitt tests indicate that water discharge at all stations in the Zhujiang Basin showed no significant trend or abrupt shift. Annual water discharges are mainly influenced by precipitation variability, while the construction of reservoirs/dams in the Zhujiang Basin had little influence on water discharge. Sediment load, however, showed significant decreasing trends at some stations in the main channel of the Xijiang and Dongjiang. More stations have seen significantly decreasing trends since the 1990s. The decreasing sediment load in the Zhujiang reflects the impacts of reservoir construction in the basin. In contrast, the Liujiang, the second largest tributary of the Xijiang, has experienced a significant upward shift of sediment load around 1991 likely caused by exacerbated rock desertification in the karst regions. The annual sediment load from the Zhujiang (excluding the delta region) to the estuary has declined from 80.4 × 10⁶ t averaged for the period 1957–1995 to 54.0 × 10⁶ t for the period 1996–2004. More specifically, the sediment load declined steadily since the early 1990s so that in 2004 it was about one-third of the mean level of pre-90s. Water discharge and sediment load of the Zhujiang would be more affected by human activities in the future with the further reservoir developments, especially the completion of the Datengxia hydroelectric project, and an intensification of the afforestation policy in the drainage basin.     

Palaeoecological constraints on late Glacial and Holocene ice retreat in the Southern Andes (53°S)

Late Glacial to Holocene ice retreat was investigated along a 120 km long fjord system, reaching from Gran Campo Nevado (GCN) to Seno Skyring in the southernmost Andes (53°S). The aim was to improve the knowledge on regional and global control on glacier recession with special emphasis on latitudinal shifting of the westerlies. The timing of ice retreat was derived from peat and sediment cores, using mineralogical and chemical characteristics, and pollen as proxies. Stratigraphy was based on ¹⁴C-AMS ages and tephrochronology. The ice retreat of the Seno Skyring Glacier lobe is marked by an ice rafted debris layer which was formed around 18,300 to 17,500 cal. yr B.P. Subsequently, fast glacier retreat occurred until around 15,000 to 14,000 cal. yr B.P. during which around 84% of Skyring Glacier were lost. This fast recession was probably also triggered by an increase of the Equilibrium Line Altitude (ELA) from 200 to 300 m. Subsequently, the ice surface was lowered below the ELA in an area that previously made up more than 50% of the accumulation area. Much slower retreat and glacier fluctuations of limited extent in the fjord channel system northeast of GCN occurred between around 14,000 to 11,000 cal. yr B.P. during both the Antarctic Cold Reversal and the Younger Dryas. This slow down of retreat indicates a decline in the general warming trend and/or increased precipitation, due to a southward migration of the westerlies. After around 11,000 cal. yr B.P. pollen distribution shows evolved Magellanic Rainforest and similar climate as at present, which lasted throughout most of the Holocene. Only Late Neoglacial moraine systems were formed in the period 1220–1460 AD, and subsequently in the 1620s AD, and between 1870 and 1910 AD. The results indicate that the Gran Campo Nevado ice cap has reacted more sensitive and partly distinct to climate change, compared to the Patagonian Ice Field.     

Permafrost warming in the Tien Shan Mountains, Central Asia

The general features of alpine permafrost such as spatial distribution, temperatures, ice content, permafrost and active-layer thickness within the Tien Shan Mountains, Central Asia are described. The modern thermal state of permafrost reflects climatic processes during the twentieth century when the average rise in mean annual air temperature was 0.006–0.032 °C/yr for the different parts of the Tien Shan. Geothermal observations during the last 30 yr indicate an increase in permafrost temperatures from 0.3 °C up to 0.6 °C. At the same time, the average active-layer thickness increased by 23% in comparison to the early 1970s. The long-term records of air temperature and snow cover from the Tien Shan's high-mountain weather stations allow reconstruction of the thermal state of permafrost dynamics during the last century. The modeling estimation shows that the altitudinal lower boundary of permafrost distribution has shifted by about 150–200 m upward during the twentieth century. During the same period, the area of permafrost distribution within two river basins in the Northern Tien Shan decreased approximately by 18%. Both geothermal observations and modeling indicate more favorable conditions for permafrost occurrences and preservation in the coarse blocky material, where the ice-rich permafrost could still be stable even when the mean annual air temperatures exceeds 0 °C.     

Short-term periodicities of the sun's ‘mean’ and differential rotation

We have looked for periodicities in solar differential rotation on time scales shorter than the 11-year solar cycle through the power- spectrum analysis of the differential rotation parameters determined from Mt. Wilson velocity data (1969–1994) and Greenwich sunspot group data (1879–1976). We represent the differential rotation by a set of Gegenbauer polynomials (()= + (5sin₂–1)+ (21sin₄–14sin₂+1)). For the Mt. Wilson data, we focus on observations obtained after 1981 due to the reduced instrumental noise and have binned the data into intervals of 19 days. We calculated annual averages for the sunspot data to reduce the uncertainty and corrected for outliers occuring during solar cycle minima. The power spectrum of the photospheric mean rotation , determined from the velocity data during 1982–1994, shows peaks at the periods of 6.7–4.4 yr, 2.2 ± 0.4 yr, 1.2 ± 0.2 yr, and 243 ± 10 day with 99.9% confidence level, which are similar to periods found in other indicators of solar activity suggesting that they are of solar origin. However, this result has to be confirmed with other techniques and longer data sets. The 11-yr periodicity is insignificant or absent in . The power spectra of the differential rotation parameters and , determined from the same subset, show only the solar cycle period with a 99.9% confidence level.The time series of determined from the yearly sunspot group data obtained during 1879–1976 is very similar to the corresponding time series of . After correcting for data with large error bars (occurring during cycle minima), we find periods, which are most likely harmonics of the solar cycle, such as 18.3 ± 3.0 yr and 7.5 ± 0.5 yr in and confirmed these and the 3.0 ± 0.1 yr period in . The original time series show in addition some shorter periods, absent in the corrected data, representing temporal variations during cycle minimum. Given their large error bars, it is uncertain whether they represent a solar variation or not. The results presented here show considerable differences in the periodicities of and determined from the velocity data and the spot group data. These differences may be explained by assuming that the rotation rates determined from velocity and sunspot data represent the rotation rates of the Sun's surface layers and of somewhat deeper layers.     

Trends of sea level variations in the South China Sea from merged altimetry data

In this study, more than 13 yr of merged altimetry sea level anomalies (SLA) data were used to analyze the trends of sea level variations in the South China Sea (SCS). The result shows that the mean sea level over the SCS has a rise rate of 11.3 mm/yr during 1993–2000 and a fall rate of 11.8 mm/yr during 2001–2005. The geographical distribution of the sea level variations over the SCS is asymmetric with a pronounced variation existing in the deep water. The trends of thermosteric sea level variations were also examined using Ishii data and MITgcm assimilation data. The result indicates that the thermal change of the upper layer of the SCS has a significant contribution to the sea level variations. Heat budget analysis suggests that heat advection may be a key factor influencing the thermal change. Apart from thermal contribution, the effect of water exchange on the sea level variations was also studied.     

Fluvial fluxes into the Caribbean Sea and their impact on coastal ecosystems: The Magdalena River,Colombia

The Magdalena, a world-class river, in the top ten in terms of sediment load ∼ 150 MT/yr, is the largest river discharging directly into the Caribbean Sea. Data on water discharge, sediment load, and dissolved load of the Magdalena River is presented as an initial interpretation of coastal ecosystems changes in relation to water discharge and sediment load from the Magdalena. During the 1972–1998 yr-period, the Magdalena River has delivered approximately 4022 MT of sediment to the Caribbean coast. The river reflects high inter-annual variability and delivers large portions of its fluvial discharge and sediment loads in short periods of time. The analysis of annual deviations from the 27-yr mean sediment load indicates that 59% of the total sediment load variability of the Magdalena at Calamar could be attributed to flashy peak events. Further analyses of sediment load anomalies suggest that there was a high discharge period in the Magdalena River between 1985 and 1995 and another one in the Canal del Dique between 1985 and 1992. These increasing trends in sediment load coincide with the overall decline of live coral cover around the Rosario Islands, a 145 km² coral reef complex in the Caribbean Sea that constitutes a marine protected area. The comparison of live coral: algae ratios for the 1983–2004 yr-period, also indicates that there has been an associated increase in the percentage of algae cover (i.e., Grande Island 1983 = 5%, 2004 = 59%). Other analyses show that nearly 850 ha of seagrass existing in the Cartagena Bay in the 1930s, only 76 ha remained in 2001, which is less than 8% of the original cover. There has been a mix of multiple stressors (natural and anthropogenic; local, regional and global; temporal and chronic) affecting the coastal ecosystems in the area, but the effect of the Magdalena River runoff has been constant and very prolonged (several decades). The impacts of heavy sediment loads and freshwater discharges from the Canal del Dique to Cartagena Bay have greatly contributed to the partial disappearance of coral formations and also to a considerable reduction in abundance of seagrass beds in the bay and neighboring areas.     

PERIODICITIES IN THE NORTH–SOUTH ASYMMETRY OF THE SOLAR DIFFERENTIAL ROTATION AND SURFACE MAGNETIC FIELD

We have studied the temporal variations in the north–south asymmetries of the differential rotation parameters A, B, and the mean rotation rate , by determining their values from Greenwich data for sunspot groups (1879–1976) in the northern and southern hemispheres, during moving time intervals of lengths 3 yr and 5 yr, successively displaced by 1 yr. The variation in the north–south asymmetry ( ) of is similar to the variation in the asymmetry (B ) of B but with opposite sign. These variations of and B may represent components of an anti-symmetric torsional oscillation which are in opposite phase with each other.The FFT and MEM analyses of the temporal variations of B , , and the north–south asymmetry (A ) of A, show existence of significant periodicities: 45.5 ± 11.5 yr,21.3 ± 4.5 yr, 13.3 ± 1.5 yr, and 10.5 ± 0.5 yr. These analyses also show a few other possible periodicities in A , B , and . All these periodicities are also seen in the north–south asymmetry of sunspot activity (with similar relative magnitudes). The 22-yr periodicity was seen in even-parity modes of magnetic field inferred from sunspot data.     

Climate forced atmospheric CO2 variability in the early Holocene: A stomatal frequency reconstruction

The dynamic climate in the Northern Hemisphere during the early Holocene could be expected to have impacted on the global carbon cycle. Ice core studies however, show little variability in atmospheric CO₂. Resolving any possible centennial to decadal CO₂ changes is limited by gas diffusion through the firn layer during bubble enclosure. Here we apply the inverse relationship between stomatal index (measured on sub-fossil leaves) and atmospheric CO₂ to complement ice core records between 11,230 and 10,330 cal. yr BP. High-resolution sampling and radiocarbon dating of lake sediments from the Faroe Islands reconstruct a distinct CO₂ decrease centred on ca. 11,050 cal. yr BP, a consistent and steady decline between ca. 10,900 and 10,600 cal. yr BP and an increased instability after ca. 10,550 cal. yr BP. The earliest decline lasting ca. 150 yr is probably associated with the Preboreal Oscillation, an abrupt climatic cooling affecting much of the Northern Hemisphere a few hundred years after the end of the Younger Dryas. In the absence of known global climatic instability, the decline to ca. 10,600 cal. yr BP is possibly due to expanding vegetation in the Northern Hemisphere. The increasing instability in CO₂ after 10,600 cal. yr BP occurs during a period of increasing cooling of surface waters in the North Atlantic and some increased variability in proxy climate indicators in the region.The reconstructed CO₂ changes also show a distinct similarity to indicators of changing solar activity. This may suggest that at least the Northern Hemisphere was particularly sensitive to changes in solar activity during this time and that atmospheric CO₂ concentrations fluctuated via rapid responses in climate.     

Biomization and quantitative climate reconstruction techniques in northwestern Mexico—With an application to four Holocene pollen sequences

New paleovegetation and paleoclimatic reconstructions from the Sierra Madre Occidental (SMO) in northwestern Mexico are presented. This work involves climate and biome reconstruction using Plant Functional Types (PFT) assigned to pollen taxa. We used fossil pollen data from four Holocene peat bogs located at different altitudes (1500‑2000 m) at the border region of Sonora and Chihuahua at around 28° N latitude (Ortega-Rosas, C.I. 2003. Palinología de la Ciénega de Camilo: datos para la historia de la vegetación y el clima del Holoceno medio y superior en el NW de la Sierra Madre Occidental, Sonora, Mexico. Master Thesis, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, México D.F.; Ortega-Rosas, C.I., Peñalba, M.C., Guiot, J. Holocene altitudinal shifts in vegetation belts and environmental changes in the Sierra Madre Occidental, Northwestern Mexico. Submitted for publication of Palaeobotany and Palynology). The closest modern pollen data come from pollen analysis across an altitudinal transect from the Sonoran Desert towards the highlands of the temperate SMO at the same latitude (Ortega-Rosas, C.I. 2003. Palinología de la Ciénega de Camilo: datos para la historia de la vegetación y el clima del Holoceno medio y superior en el NW de la Sierra Madre Occidental, Sonora, Mexico. Master Thesis, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, México D.F.). An additional modern pollen dataset of 400 sites across NW Mexico and the SW United States was compiled from different sources (Davis, O.K., 1995. Climate and vegetation pattern in surface samples from arid western U.S.A.: application to Holocene climatic reconstruction. Palynology 19, 95–119, North American Pollen Database, Latin-American Pollen Database, personal data, and different scientific papers). For the biomization method (Prentice, I.C., Guiot, J., Huntley, B., Jolly, D., Cheddadi, R., 1996. Reconstructing biomes from paleoecological data: a general method and its application to European pollen data at 0 and 6 ka. Climate Dynamics 12, 185–194), we modified the pollen-PFT and PFT-biomes assignation of Thompson and Anderson (Thompson, R.S., Anderson, K.H., 2000. Biomes of western North America at 18,000; 6000 and 0 14C yr BP reconstructed from pollen and packrat midden data. Journal of Biogeography 27, 555–584) for a better representation of the modern vegetation of NW Mexico. The biome reconstruction method was validated with the modern pollen sites and applied to the fossil sites. Our results show that, during the early Holocene, a cool conifer forest extended at least down to 1700 m, while today this biome is present above 2000 m in the Chihuahua state. The Younger Dryas event was recorded in one site with cold and dry conditions. The reconstructed annual temperature for this period was 3°–6 °C colder than today, and annual precipitation was 250 mm lower than at present (900 mm/yr). The middle Holocene after 9200 cal yr BP was marked by a warming trend, reaching temperatures 2 °C warmer than today at 7000 cal yr BP, and by the installation of a warm mixed forest, the present day biome, at 1700 m elevation, while at higher elevations (1900 m) the cool conifer forest was still present. Summer precipitation was 200 mm/yr above the early Holocene values, suggesting that monsoon-like conditions strengthened since 9200 cal yr BP at this region. During the last 4000 yr, the same warm mixed forest was reconstructed below 1700 m and a conifer forest above 1700 m. A great variability of vegetation and climate patterns was recorded for the last 3000 yr particularly at high elevation sites, where warming and cooling trends would be coeval of the Medieval warm period and Little Ice Age, likely related to ENSO variability.     

Geodetic GPS-based analysis of recent crustal motions in Victoria Land (Antarctica)

GPS measurements were collected within the framework of the VLNDEF (Victoria Land Network for DEFormation control) project, which was started in 1999 with the aim of detecting crustal deformation in Northern Victoria Land (Antarctica). The network was established in 1999 and is composed of one permanent station (TNB1), which has been observing since 1998, and 28 periodically surveyed control points. Three complete campaigns and some partial surveying of the network have been carried out to date.Data processing and analysis have been performed using an undifferenced approach for the network position within the ITRF. A double-differences-based strategy has been applied for movement detection. The data processing and analysis of results have been carried out for all available data, both periodically acquired and long time series.GPS measurements collected between December 1999 and February 2006 indicate a mean “absolute” motion of the region of v_e = 11.3 mm/yr and v_n = − 11.1 mm/yr and rock uplift rates of v_u = 2.8 mm/yr. These values are consistent with Antarctic plate motion and the general postglacial rebound models of the region. The relative motions within VLNDEF are small and only few points show velocities greater than the confidence levels.     

Unsteady magnetohydrodynamic flows in a rotating elastico-viscous fluid

This paper points out the errors in the solutions of a research work by N. Nanousis under the same title published in this journal, volume 199, 1993. The correct solutions of the problem for the velocity field and the drag on the plate, by the Laplace transform technique, are presented. The results are discussed for two cases of an arbitrary time-dependent forcing effect. It is shown that the viscoelastic parameterk > 0 influences the velocity and introduces reverse flow. For a suddenly accelerated plate,k > 0 increases the velocity forz < and decreases it forz > . In the case of the ramp-type boundary condition,k > 0 tends to decrease the velocity.     

Glacier changes in the Tien Shan as determined from topographic and remotely sensed data

This research presents a precise evaluation of the Tien Shan glacier's recession based on data of geodetic surveys 1861–1869, aerial photographs from 1943, 1963, 1977, 1981, 1:25,000 scale topographic maps, SRTM, and ASTER data from 2000/2003 for the Akshiirak glacierized massif in the central Tien Shan with 178 glaciers covering 317.6 km², and for the Ala Archa glacier basin in the northern Tien Shan with 48 glaciers covering 36.31 km².The Tien Shan glaciers retreated as much as 3 km from the 1860s to 2003. From 1943 to 1977, Akshiirak and Ala Archa shrunk 4.2% and 5.1% respectively, and from 1977 to 2003 the area shrunk 8.6% and 10.6%, respectively. The volume of the Akshiirak glaciers was reduced by 3.566 km³ from 1943 to 1977 and 6.147 km³ from 1977 to 2000.The total reduction of the Tien Shan glacier is 14.2% during the last 60 yr. The northern and central Tien Shan have not experienced a significant increase of precipitation during the last 100 yr, but they have experienced an increase in summer air temperatures, especially observable since the 1970s, which caused an acceleration of the Tien Shan glaciers recession.     

Reconstructing the Younger Dryas ice dammed lake in the Baltic Basin: Bathymetry, area and volume

A digital 3D-reconstruction of the Baltic Ice Lake's (BIL) configuration during the termination of the Younger Dryas cold phase (ca. 11 700 cal. yr BP) was compiled using a combined bathymetric–topographic Digital Terrain Model (DTM), Scandinavian ice sheet limits, Baltic Sea Holocene bottom sediment thickness information, and a paleoshoreline database maintained at the Lund University. The bathymetric–topographic DTM, assembled from publicly available data sets, has a resolution of 500 × 500 m on Lambert Azimuthal Equal Area projection allowing area and volume calculations of the BIL to be made with an unprecedented accuracy. When the damming Scandinavian ice sheet margin eventually retreated north of Mount Billingen, the high point in terrain of Southern central Sweden bordering to lower terrain further to the north, the BIL was catastrophically drained resulting in a 25 m drop of the lake level. With our digital reconstruction, we estimate that approximately 7800 km³ of water drained during this event and that the ice dammed lake area was reduced by ca. 18%. Building on previous results suggesting drainage over 1 to 2 years, our lake volume calculations imply that the freshwater flux to the contemporaneous sea in the west was between about 0.12 and 0.25 Sv. The BIL reconstruction provides new detailed information on the paleogeography in the area of southern Scandinavia, both before and after the drainage event, with implications for interpretations of geological records concerning the post-glacial environmental development.     

A peat core based estimate of Late-glacial and Holocene methane emissions from northern peatlands

We estimate the intensity of Late-glacial and Holocene methane emissions from peatlands based on their paleo net primary production (PNPP). The PNPP is derived from the carbon accumulation rates of the studied bog profile (Etang de la Gruère, Switzerland), which are corrected for the degree of peat degradation. The obtained PNPP curve is taken as a proxy for methane emissions. It shows relatively high values (90 g C m^− 2 yr^− 1) early in the Bolling/Allerod and drops to low values (40 g C m^− 2 yr^− 1) during the Younger Dryas cold period. With the onset of the Holocene the PNPP increases strongly up to 150 g C m^− 2 yr^− 1 around ca. 10,000 Cal. yr bp. This is followed by a decline to minimum values (30 to 40 g C m^− 2 yr^− 1) between 6500 and 4000 Cal. yr bp. Thereafter, the PNPP starts to increase again to reach its highest value (175 g C m^− 2 yr^− 1) around 1000 Cal. yr bp.The PNPP curve correlates well with the evolution of the atmospheric methane concentrations as derived from Greenland ice-cores. For example, minima in atmospheric methane reported during the Younger Dryas and around 5200 Cal. yr bp are coinciding with the lowest values of PNPP and the negative atmospheric methane peak at 8200 Cal. yr bp corresponds to a marked decrease in PNPP.Our PNPP curve suggests that the methane emissions from northern peatlands evolved similar to those of low latitude wetlands and together they largely determined the evolution of atmospheric methane throughout the Late-glacial and the Holocene. The abruptness of the rise of atmospheric methane at the end of the Younger Dryas probably points to an additional source (e.g. marine gas hydrates), but very early in the Holocene the peatlands have likely become the dominant source of atmospheric methane.     

Surface processes and tectonics: Forcing of continental subduction and deep processes

It is now well accepted that surface processes provide a critical feedback on the surface tectonic deformation, whatever it is, orogenic building or basin evolution. However, the idea that the influence of these processes may go below the crustal levels, is less common. In this preliminary study, we use coupled thermo-mechanical numerical models to investigate the possible influence of surface processes on the styles of continental collision, in particular, continental subduction. For that, we further exploit the recent successful model of continental subduction of the early stages of India–Asia collision by Toussaint et al. [Toussaint G., Burov, E., and J.-P. Avouac, Tectonic evolution of a continental collision zone: a thermo-mechanical numerical model, Tectonics, 23, TC6003, doi:10.1029/2003TC001604, 2004b.]. On the example of India–Asia-like settings, we show that not only the surface topography but also the total amount of subduction may largely vary as function of denudation rate (controlled by the coefficient of erosion, k). Erosion provides a dynamic discharge of the hanging wall of the major thrust zone, whereas the sedimentation increases loading on the footwall and this helps down-thrusting of the lower plate. Both processes reduce the resistance of the major thrust and subduction channel to subduction. However, very strong or very slow erosion/sedimentation enhance the possibility of plate coupling and promote whole-scale thickening or buckling. The maximal amount of subduction is thus achieved for some intermediate values of erosion rates when the tectonic uplift rate is fine-balanced by the denudation rate. In our case the optimal balance is reached for the values of k on the order of 3000 m²/yr. We then extended our model beyond the conditions of India–Asia collision, in terms of the tested range of k and convergence rates. The experiments suggest that for provided settings, both extra slow (k < 50–100 m²/yr) and extra rapid erosion (k > 6000–8000 m²/yr) limit, by up to 50%, the total amount of subduction, if not totally prevent it. The model demonstrates the large capability of surface processes to adopt to different deformation styles: the orogenic building and subduction successfully develop (subduction number, S > 0.5) in the range of k between 500 m²/yr and 6000 m²/yr at convergence rates ranging from 1 cm/yr to 6 cm/yr. Within this range, some peculiar features of orogenic style such as the geometry of the accretion prism, amount of upper crustal subduction, horizontal progression of the mountain range/thrust fault and the amount of exhumation of metamorphic facies are sometimes quite different. We conclude that surface processes may control deep, mantle level tectonic evolution.     

Modeled impacts of changes in tundra snow thickness on ground thermal regime and heat flow to the atmosphere in Northernmost Alaska

Seasonal snow covers the tundra surface for up to nine months of each year on the Alaskan North Slope. Variations in the snow thickness could strongly influence the thermal regime of the underlying soil and permafrost, and the surface energy balance. The impacts of increases and decreases in the tundra snow thickness on the thermal regime of snow surface, active layer, and permafrost, and on the conductive heat flow to the atmosphere were investigated numerically, by using an improved surface energy balance approach based one-dimensional heat transfer model. The baseline inputs for the numerical model are mean daily meteorological data and surface albedos collected at Barrow, Alaska from 1995 through 1999. Based on a study for the long-term mean daily maximum and minimum snow thickness distributions at Barrow in the snow season of 1948 through 1997, a snow thickness factor was defined and five simulation cases were run for the snow season of 1997–1998 by changing the snow thickness factor. The modeled results indicate that changes in snow thickness have significant impacts on ground thermal regimes and conductive heat flow to the atmosphere. Decreasing the snow thickness by 50% led to the maximum ground temperature decrease of 1.48 °C at 0.29 m depth, and 0.72 °C at 3.0 m depth; the magnitude of the mean conductive heat flow to the atmosphere for December increase of 4.3 Wm^− 2. Increasing the snow thickness by 50% resulted in the maximum ground temperature increase of 1.44 °C at 0.29 m depth, and 0.66 °C at 3.0 m depth; the magnitude of the mean conductive heat flow to the atmosphere for December decrease of 1.57 W m^− 2. On an annual basis, variation in the snow thickness by 50%, the ground temperature variations of more than 0.25 °C occurred as deep as 8.0 m below the ground surface. The modeled results also show that changes in snow thickness have a relatively small influence on the snow surface temperature.     

Some comments on the asymptotic limit of antiproton-proton flux ratio at the top of the atmosphere

Using the leaky-box model the upper limit of the antiproton-proton flux ratio at the top of the atmosphere has been estimated from the latest primary nucleon spectrum and accelerator data on inclusive reactions. The estimated value of flux ratio comes out to be (3.6±0.3)×10^–4 is in accord with the previous results but still far from the measurements.     

Clay mineralogy of a red clay–loess sequence from Lingtai, the Chinese Loess Plateau

The Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP) comprises an extensive record of eolian deposition that contains important information about climate change. The objective of this study is to investigate if mineralogy can provide more insight into the long-term evolution of the East Asian monsoon. Comparisons between mineralogy and other paleoclimatic records (grain size and magnetic susceptibility) from the CLP have been made to evaluate the efficacy of mineralogy as a paleoclimatic tool.Here we present data from a mineralogical study of a red clay–loess sequence at Lingtai, central Chinese Loess Plateau. Changes related to source area(s), transport processes and weathering regime over time are recorded in mineral variation.Higher average concentrations of kaolinite, chlorite and quartz in the red clay, together with abrupt changes in relative mineral abundances across the red clay–loess boundary suggest a change of source area at 2.6 Ma. From 2.6 Ma to about 1.7 Ma the summer monsoon influence increases, destroying chlorite and contributing fine illite particles to the sediment. At around 1.7 Ma the mineralogy becomes relatively constant, suggesting that the monsoon was fairly stable during this period. At 0.7–0.5 Ma an increase of both summer monsoon and winter monsoon activity is inferred from illite, kaolinite, chlorite and plagioclase concentrations. Over the last 0.5 Ma mineralogy suggests an aridification of source area(s) as chlorite and plagioclase concentrations increase where illite concentration decreases. The last major change occurred around 0.07 Ma and indicates reducing summer monsoon influence as chlorite and quartz concentrations increase and illite concentration, as well as the < 2 μm size fraction, decreases. The mineralogical trends and differences between loess and paleosols units suggest different source areas in the last 0.5 Ma.