近40年中国区域的气候型变化与北半球大气环流特征10年际时空变化的关系

根据１８００－１９８９年（１１０年）的资料，分析研究了新加坡地区月平均和年平均降雨量的一些特征。主要结论是：新加坡年平均降雨量存在准２－６年和１８年的周期振荡；亚洲季风以及ＥＮＳＯ对新加坡降雨量有明显的影响。新加坡年雨量的谷值出现在西南季风期而峰值在东北季风期。在Ｅｌ Ｎｉｎｏ年，新加坡降雨量多为负距平；而在反Ｅｌ Ｎｉｎｏ年，新加坡降雨量多为正距平。     

近海海面油类漂流扩散的研究和预测实践

根据珠江口气象站风速与潮汐站潮位资料，对1955－1998年12次El Nino过程的珠江口季风强度与海平面变化特点进行合成分析，结果表明，El Nino发生前一年冬季，珠江口冬季平均风速较常年值大0．4m/s,El Nino发生当年，月平均风速也普遍大于常年，而月平均海平面则普遍较常年偏低，其中10与11月份负距平为6cm左右。东亚地区的季风异常对珠江口海平面异常有着重大的影响。     

1997/1998年ENSO过程与热带大气季节内振荡

根据珠江口气象站风速与潮汐站潮位资料,对1955～1998年12次El Nino过程的珠江口季风强度与海平面变化特点进行合成分析,结果表明,El Nino发生前一年冬季,珠江口冬季平均风速较常年值大0.4 m/s,El Nino发生当年,月平均风速也普遍大于常年,而月平均海平面则普遍较常年偏低,其中10与11月份负距平为6 cm左右。东亚地区的季风异常对珠江口海平面异常有着重大的影响。     

赤道西太平洋-印度洋海温异常对亚洲夏季风的影响

本文采用了p-σ五层原始方程模式模拟并研究了赤道西太平洋-印度洋海温距平场对亚洲夏季风的影响,计算了四种不同的海温距平试验方案。试验结果表明赤道西太平洋海温正距平使对流层下层的印度低压明显加强,副高北挺,季风槽加深,同时加强了对流层上层的反气旋环流。赤道西印度洋暖海温的模拟结果与赤道西太平洋暖海温对上述系统的影响相反,而赤道西印度洋冷海温对季风环流的影响与赤道西太平洋暧海温的影响一致。试验进一步表明赤道西太平洋-印度洋海温距平的纬向梯度方向对亚洲夏季风的影响是主要的,这一结论与实际观测结果一致。本文进一步讨论了赤道海温距平对越赤道气流、印度洋赤道东-西纬向环流和非绝热加热场的影响,结果都表明赤道西太平洋海温正距平和赤道西印度洋海温负距平的模拟特征与反El Nino年亚洲夏季环流特征类似,而赤道西印度洋海员正距平的模拟特征与El Nino年亚洲夏季坏流特征类似。     

1998年南海西南季风活动的初步分析

利用NCEP再分析资料和OLR、SST观测数据,分析了1998年南海西南季风的建立日期、强度的多时间尺度变化特征、与海面温度的相互作用以及对广东降水的影响.得出南海西南季风建立的日期为5月17日(5月4候).1998年为弱季风年,OLR具有1个月左右的振荡周期,西南风具有半个月左右的振荡周期.孟加拉湾地区季风和105°E越赤道气流是南海季风低频变化的重要策源地.1998年南海季风弱,主要是由于初春赤道东太平洋海温正距平,并导致南海-阿拉伯海海温正距平的结果.     

热带海温变化与高原季风发展

利用NOAA长波辐射OLR，NCEP/NCAR再分析格点资料，探讨了热带太平洋、印度洋海温等环境场变化与高原季风发展的联系。揭示了春季孟加拉湾和南海以及西太平洋暖池附近海表增温、赤道东太平洋降温有利于高原夏季风发展。分析了高原季风强弱年同期和前期SST场、风场和OLR场演变特征。结果表明，高原季风强弱年热带环境场存在明显差异。高原夏季风发展时SSTA从春季到夏季, 孟加拉湾经南海到西太平洋SST呈正距平, 赤道中东太平洋SST负距平发展, 表现为La Ni?a特征。反之，高原夏季风减弱时SSTA在孟加拉湾和南海地区SST呈负距平，东南太平洋SST正距平发展。表现为El Ni?o特征。     

影响东亚季风环流异常因子的敏感性试验

文章使用改进了的OSU全球气候模式，动态地使用厄尔尼诺年（1972年）实际下垫面温度月距平资料，对太平洋海面温度异常以及太平洋中不同关键区海面温度异常进行了敏感性试验。数值试验结果表明:El Nino实际海温时空异常，特别是关键区海面温度异常，引起了东亚季风环流的异常变化，出现了干旱的环流形势。无论赤道中太平洋或是赤道东太平洋的海面温度异常都是敏感的影响因子，对预报有一定的指示意义。     

热带西太平洋暖池次表层暖水的起源--对1997/1998年ENSO事件的分析

分析了从1955～1999年45年热带、副热带太平洋地区次表层温度距平资料,在分析沿赤道距平极值曲面的深度分布后,认为它基本接近气候温跃层的深度分布.由此分析了1994～1999年该曲面上温度距平的演变发现:1997/1998年El Nino产生时,在热带西太平洋暖池次表层(160 m附近)的温度正距平,是从1994/1995年El Nino在Nino 3区的最大正距平信号传播或演变过来的,整个最大正距平信号的传播轨迹形成一似"8"字的形状.与此同时,当正的温度距平开始从暖池向东传播时,一最大温度负距平信号在Nino 3区出现,并伴随赤道最大正距平信号的东传,在其北部(5～10°N)向西传,然后又向东传最后到达Nino 3区,其传播轨迹形成一扁"0"字形状.分析表明,1997/1998年这次完整的El Nino/La Nina事件主要是在热带流系的温跃层附近形成并传播的.     

厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜事件循环演变过程的资料分析研究

利用1955-2000年热带、副热带太平洋地区次表层温度距平资料,构造了温度距平极值深度分布曲面图,它很接近20°温度面的深度分布,因此有理由认为这一深度曲面很接近热带温跃层的深度面。在温度距平极值深度曲面上,分析了20世纪60年代后期以来所有El　Nino/La Nina事件正/负海温距平信号的分布和传播“轨迹”,发现如果以暖池次表层作为起点,则一般来说,暖水或冷水先是沿赤道极值深度面向东、向上传播或运动,到达赤道东太平洋海盆边界附近后,在那里停留几个月,然后转北运动,在北纬10度左右再折向西运动到西太平洋转向南返回到暖池,即在赤道北侧形成闭合回路。温度距平运动一圈需时2-4年。如果暖（冷）水的温度距平都很强,就会在2-4年的时间上出现两次相邻的El　Nino（La Nina）事件,但可能是由于大气或海洋环境条件不合适,温度距平的强度在运动过程中有时会减弱,就不能形成El　Nino（La Nina）事件,但暖（冷）水运动的“轨迹”仍可辨认。由于暖、冷水绕环路的运动交替出现,El Nino（La　Nina）爆发前,在赤道西太平洋出现正（负）距平信号的同时,在东太平洋北纬10度左右会有负（正）距平信号出现,并且当正（负）距平信号向东传播时,负（正）距平信号向西传播,在赤道上表现为2-4年间隔的El Nino（La Nina）交     

El Nio事件与番禺降水的相关性分析

采用X^2检验方法,统计分析番禺地面气象站1961～2006年的逐月降水资料与El Nino现象的关系。结果表明：两类El Nino事件与番禺年降水量有密切关系,Ⅰ类El Nino事件与番禺年降水量呈强的正相关,降水增加量平均为26．63％,而Ⅱ类El Nino事件与番禺年降水量呈负相关,降水减少量平均为11．46％。从季节分布来看,两类El Nino事件对锋面降水和季风过渡季节降水影响较小,而对汛期降水影响较大。两类事件对降水影响的差异主要通过西太平洋副高脊线位置的差异表现出来：Ⅰ类El Nino事件影响年,4～6月副高脊线位置较常年偏南,7、8月偏北;Ⅱ类El Nino事件影响年,4～6月副高脊线位置较常年偏北,7、8月偏南。     

我国主要水稻雄性不育系的光温特性研究

根据10个水稻雄性不育系的生育期及期间的温度和日长资料，研究了它们的光、温生态特性。用通径分析方法，分析了决定各不育系生育期变化的决策变量结果表明：晚籼及晚粳类型不育系的感光性强，中籼类型不育系的感光性弱到中等，早籼类型不育系的感光性一般都弱。10个雄性不育系中感温性弱的只占少数，感温性属弱到中强的品种占多数。除HS-3和SE21S的生育期决策变量为日长外，其他各不育系的决策变量均为温度。     

生态系统在全球变化中的调节作用

讨论在全球变化的背景下,生态系统对全球变化的调节作用.首先论述陆地生态系统对全球变化的调节作用,主要包括陆地生态系统对大气成分的调节以及对全球气候的调节;其次,论述水生生态系统对全球变化的调节作用,主要包括淡水生态系统对全球变化的调节作用以及海洋生态系统对全球变化的调节作用;最后,论述湿地生态系统对全球变化的调节作用,主要包括湿地生态系统对生物多样性保护的功能,湿地对全球变化的元素调节作用以及湿地对气候和水文的调节.       

Allocating planetary boundaries to large economies: Distributional consequences of alternative perspectives on distributive fairness

The planetary boundaries (PBs) framework proposes global quantitative precautionary limits for human perturbation of nine critical Earth system processes. Together they define a global safe operating space for human development. Translating the global limits to the national level increases their policy relevance. Such translation essentially divides up the global safe operating space. What is considered fair distribution is a political decision and there is no globally agreed principle that can be applied. Here, we analyse the distributional consequences of alternative perspectives on distributive fairness. We scale the global limits of selected PBs to resource budgets for the EU, US, China and India, using three allocation approaches from the climate change literature. Furthermore, we compare the allocated budgets to 2010 environmental footprints of the four economies, to assess their performance with respect to the selected PBs. The allocation approaches are based on (1) current shares of global environmental pressure (‘grandfathering’); (2) ‘equal per capita’ shares, and (3) ‘ability to pay’ to reduce environmental pressure. The results show that the four economies are not living within the global safe operating space. Their 2010 environmental footprints are larger than the allocated budgets for all approaches and parameterisations analysed for the PBs for climate change and biogeochemical flows, and, except for India, also for the PB for biosphere integrity. Grandfathering was found to be most favourable for the EU and US for all PBs, and ability to pay as least favourable. For climate change and biogeochemical flows, ability to pay even resulted in negative resource budgets for the two economies. In contrast, for China and India, equal per capita allocation and ability to pay were most favourable. Results were sensitive to the parameterisation. Accounting for future population growth in the equal per capita approach benefits India, with lower budgets for the EU, US and China, while accounting for future economic growth in ability to pay benefits the EU and US, with lower budgets for China and India. Our results underline the need for all four economies to act, while hinting at diverging preferences for specific allocation approaches. The methodology and results may help countries to define policy targets in line with global ambitions, such as those defined by the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), accounting for differences in countries’ circumstances and capacities. Further attention is required for PB-specific allocation approaches and integration of biophysical and socioeconomic considerations in the allocation.     

Comparative study of performance of different weather forecast models at specific sites in northwest Himalaya in India

Independent test results of four different weather forecast models [climatological, persistence, analogue, and regional mesoscale weather simulation (MM5) model] have been compared for four past winters (winter 2003–2004 to winter 2006–2007) for qualitative weather (snow day/no snow day) and quantitative categorical snowfall prediction at six different areas in northwest Himalaya (NW-Himalaya) in India. Weather forecast guidance provided by the MM5 model at 10 km resolution was taken for the study. Test results of MM5 and the analogue model were compared for a limited number of days (with irregular gaps) due to lack of availability of MM5 weather forecast guidance for complete winter periods. Forecasts based on the persistence, climatological, and analogue models were compared for day 1 predictions only. Performance of the analogue model for qualitative weather prediction was found to be comparable to that of the MM5 model for day 1 prediction. However, for day 2 and day 3, performance of the MM5 model was found to be marginally better than that of the analogue model. Marginal difference in overall accuracy of the analogue and MM5 models was found for quantitative categorical snowfall prediction for day 3. The quantitative categorical snowfall forecast error of the MM5 model was found to be greater than that for the analogue model for all three days. Comparative study of the performance of the climatological, persistence, and analogue models showed that the analogue model performs better than the persistence and climatological models for day 1 predictions. The results of this study suggest that the analogue model shows some capability for weather prediction and, along with the MM5 model, could be a useful tool for weather forecasters. Comparative study of the performance of the MM5 model at high resolution (about 2–3 km) and the analogue model for complete winter period may provide some interesting and fruitful results.     

Internal variability in a regional climate model over West Africa

Sensitivity studies with regional climate models are often performed on the basis of a few simulations for which the difference is analysed and the statistical significance is often taken for granted. In this study we present some simple measures of the confidence limits for these types of experiments by analysing the internal variability of a regional climate model run over West Africa. Two 1-year long simulations, differing only in their initial conditions, are compared. The difference between the two runs gives a measure of the internal variability of the model and an indication of which timescales are reliable for analysis. The results are analysed for a range of timescales and spatial scales, and quantitative measures of the confidence limits for regional model simulations are diagnosed for a selection of study areas for rainfall, low level temperature and wind. As the averaging period or spatial scale is increased, the signal due to internal variability gets smaller and confidence in the simulations increases. This occurs more rapidly for variations in precipitation, which appear essentially random, than for dynamical variables, which show some organisation on larger scales.     

CMIP3与CMIP5模式对中国西北干旱区气温和降水的模拟能力比较

通过对15组CMIP3和CMIP5两代模式集合平均对中国西北干旱区气温和降水的模拟能力比较,发现CMIP5模式对气温和降水的模拟更接近观测值。CMIP5模式模拟年、春季、夏季、秋季平均气温的相关系数比CMIP3模式分别提升了0.15、0.13、0.24和0.02,冬季下降了0.07。CMIP5模式对西北干旱区的平均气温变化趋势的模拟效果比CMIP3有所提高,对年、春季、夏季、秋季、冬季趋势的模拟偏差比CMIP3分别减少了0.03℃/10a、0.10℃/10a、0.01℃/10a、0.06℃/10a、0.14℃/10a。对西北干旱区平均气温年、季的模拟偏差分布上,CMIP5模式的偏差均比CMIP3低1~2℃。但是天山区年、季节平均气温的模拟与整体模拟偏低情况相反,CMIP3和CMIP5分别偏高3~6℃和1~4℃,对夏季的模拟偏高最严重,分别达到6℃和4℃。CMIP5模式整体对西北干旱区降水量的模拟结果与观测值的平均相关系数与CMIP3相差不大,均不超过0.1,而且偏差仍然较大。CMIP5模式对西北干旱区的降水量的变化趋势模拟效果比CMIP3有所降低,对年、春季、夏季、秋季、冬季趋势的模拟偏差比CMIP3增加了0.67 mm/10a、0.23 mm/10a、0.51 mm/10a、0.11 mm/10a、0.14 mm/10a。CMIP5模式对年、春季、夏季、秋季和冬季的降水量模拟的均方根误差相比CMIP3分别减少77.6 mm、25.5 mm、25.0 mm、18.8 mm和13.9 mm。在空间上,CMIP5模式对年、季节降水模拟仍然偏高,但是比CMIP3有明显缓解;CMIP3和CMIP5模式对夏季天山区年降水量和夏季降水量的模拟也与大部分区域偏高的趋势明显相反,两代模式对夏季天山区的降水模拟均偏低50 mm左右。     

基于模糊隶属函数的吉林市烤烟种植气候适宜性区划

为合理利用吉林市气候资源,提升烤烟生产效益,开展烤烟栽培气候适宜性定量评估,以制定烤烟种植优化调整方案。采用烤烟产量、气象和海拔高程等数据,基于气象条件对当地烤烟的影响,以及烤烟栽培气候资源供求关系,确定影响烤烟栽培的气象要素。采取模糊数学方法建立吉林市烤烟适宜度隶属函数及综合评价模型。考虑到海拔高度和经纬度与气象条件的关系,建立吉林山区诸气象要素的地理分布模式,在GIS平台下实现吉林市烤烟种植适宜度的精细化气候区划。结果表明：吉林市大部分地方都比较适宜烤烟栽培,但气候适宜度存在明显的区域差异,可划分为最适宜区、适宜区、次适宜区、不适宜区4类。研究区域东部和南部海拔500-800 m左右的中山地带适合烤烟栽培,但其中海拔800 m以上的高山地带气温过低,不适宜烤烟栽培;西部半山-平原区适宜度并不高。蛟河市适宜烤烟种植面积最大,其次是桦甸市,磐石市和舒兰市也较适宜烤烟栽培。烤烟精细区划结果与当地多年烤烟种植区域有一致性,但仍有较大的优化调整空间和增产增收潜力。     

气象探空测风软件系统的标准化研究

高空气象观测是气象业务的基础，是天气预报、气候分析、科学研究和国际交换的气象情报和资料的主要来源。气象探空测风软件是高空气象站探空测风综合探测系统的重要组成部分，它包括了一系列严密的处理方法，同时又融汇了日益发展的计算机处理技术，其规范化、标准化程度直接影响着新一代探空系统效益的发挥。该文介绍了高空气象台站探空测风标准化软件系统的设计思路，重点在软件需求、系统结构、实现技术等方面进行阐述，旨在设计出适合于各种高空探测系统，方便实用的“标准化”探空测风软件，为进一步的软件开发工作奠定坚实的基础。     

The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change

We separate and quantify the sources of uncertainty in projections of regional (～2,500 km) precipitation changes for the twenty-first century using the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble, allowing a direct comparison with a similar analysis for regional temperature changes. For decadal means of seasonal mean precipitation, internal variability is the dominant uncertainty for predictions of the first decade everywhere, and for many regions until the third decade ahead. Model uncertainty is generally the dominant source of uncertainty for longer lead times. Scenario uncertainty is found to be small or negligible for all regions and lead times, apart from close to the poles at the end of the century. For the global mean, model uncertainty dominates at all lead times. The signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) of the precipitation projections is highest at the poles but less than 1 almost everywhere else, and is far lower than for temperature projections. In particular, the tropics have the highest S/N for temperature, but the lowest for precipitation. We also estimate a ‘potential S/N’ by assuming that model uncertainty could be reduced to zero, and show that, for regional precipitation, the gains in S/N are fairly modest, especially for predictions of the next few decades. This finding suggests that adaptation decisions will need to be made in the context of high uncertainty concerning regional changes in precipitation. The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional temperature projections is far greater. These conclusions on S/N are for the current generation of models; the real signal may be larger or smaller than the CMIP3 multi-model mean. Also note that the S/N for extreme precipitation, which is more relevant for many climate impacts, may be larger than for the seasonal mean precipitation considered here.     

An Investigation of the Relationship between Pesticide Usage and Climate Change

One concern of agriculturalists when regarding climate change involves the effects on pest populations. Climate change may allow pest migration or population expansions which may adversely affect agricultural productivity, profitability and possibly even viability. We examine the effect of current climate variations on the average and variability of U.S. per acre pesticide costs across the U.S. as a proxy for investigating the consequence for pest populations. Empirically, we find that increases in rainfall increases average per acre pesticide usage costs for corn, cotton, potatoes, soybeans, and wheat while hotter weather increases pesticide costs for corn, cotton, potatoes, and soybeans but decreases the cost for wheat. We also investigated the influence of climate on the variability of pesticide costs. There we find that hotter temperatures increase pesticide cost variance for corn, potatoes, and wheat while decreasing it for soybeans. Rainfall increases cause an increase in cost variability for cotton while decreasing it for corn, potatoes, soybeans, and wheat.