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1.
The modification of greenhouse gas warming by the direct effect of sulphate aerosols 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
The Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) second generation climate model (GCMII) consists of an atmospheric
GCM coupled to mixed layer ocean. It is used to investigate the climate response to a doubling of the CO2 concentration together with the direct effect of scattering by sulphate aerosols. As expected, the aerosols offset some of
the greenhouse gas (GHG) warming; the global annual mean screen temperature change due to doubled CO2 is 3.4 °C in this model and this is reduced to 2.7 °C when an estimate of the direct effect of anthropogenic sulphate aerosols
is included. The pattern of climate response to the comparatively localized aerosol forcing is not itself localized, and it
bears a striking resemblance to the response pattern that arises from the globally distributed change in GHG forcing. This
“non-local” response to “localized” forcing indicates that the pattern of climate response is determined, to first order,
by the overall magnitude of the change in forcing rather than its detailed nature or structure. Feedback processes operating
in the system apparently determine this pattern by locally amplifying and suppressing the response to the magnitude of the
change in forcing. The influence of the location of the change in forcing is relatively small. These “non-local” and “local”
effects of aerosol forcing are characterized and displayed and some of their consequences discussed. Effects on the moisture
budget and on the energetics of the global climate are also examined.
Received: 10 June 1997 / Accepted: 8 January 1998 相似文献
2.
Sensitivity of the thermohaline circulation and climate to ocean exchanges in a simple coupled model 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
A new simple, coupled climate model is presented and used to investigate the sensitivity of the thermohaline circulation
and climate to ocean vertical and horizontal exchange. As formulated, the model highlights the role of thin, ocean surface
layers in the communication between the atmosphere and the subsurface ocean. Model vertical exchange is considered to be an
analogue to small-scale, diapycnal mixing and convection (when present) in the ocean. Model horizontal exchange is considered
to be an analogue to the effects of the wind-driven circulation. For small vertical exchange in the ocean, the model exhibits
only one steady-state solution: a relatively cold, mid-high-latitude climate associated with a weak, salinity-driven circulation
(“off ” mode). For large vertical and horizontal exchange in the ocean, the model also exhibits only one steady-state solution:
a relatively warm, mid-high-latitude climate associated with a strong, thermally-driven circulation (“on” mode). For sufficiently
weak horizontal exchange but large enough vertical exchange, both modes are possible stable, steady-state solutions. When
model parameters are calibrated to fit tracer distributions of the modern ocean-atmosphere system, only the “on” mode is possible
in this standard case. This suggests that the wind-driven circulation in consort with diapycnal mixing suppresses the “off ”
mode in the modern ocean-atmosphere system. Since both diapycnal mixing and the wind-driven circulation would be expected
to increase in a cold climate with greater meridional temperature gradients and enhanced winds, vertical and horizontal exchange
in the ocean are probably associated with strong negative feedbacks which tend to stabilize climate. These results point to
the need to resolve ocean wind-driven circulation and to greatly improve the treatment of ocean diapycnal mixing in more complete
models of the climate system.
Received: 16 November 1999 / Accepted: 19 June 2000 相似文献
3.
Jeffery R. Scott Andrei P. Sokolov Peter H. Stone Mort D. Webster 《Climate Dynamics》2008,30(5):441-454
The response of the ocean’s meridional overturning circulation (MOC) to increased greenhouse gas forcing is examined using
a coupled model of intermediate complexity, including a dynamic 3-D ocean subcomponent. Parameters are the increase in CO2 forcing (with stabilization after a specified time interval) and the model’s climate sensitivity. In this model, the cessation
of deep sinking in the north “Atlantic” (hereinafter, a “collapse”), as indicated by changes in the MOC, behaves like a simple
bifurcation. The final surface air temperature (SAT) change, which is closely predicted by the product of the radiative forcing
and the climate sensitivity, determines whether a collapse occurs. The initial transient response in SAT is largely a function
of the forcing increase, with higher sensitivity runs exhibiting delayed behavior; accordingly, high CO2-low sensitivity scenarios can be assessed as a recovering or collapsing circulation shortly after stabilization, whereas
low CO2-high sensitivity scenarios require several hundred additional years to make such a determination. We also systemically examine
how the rate of forcing, for a given CO2 stabilization, affects the ocean response. In contrast with previous studies based on results using simpler ocean models,
we find that except for a narrow range of marginally stable to marginally unstable scenarios, the forcing rate has little
impact on whether the run collapses or recovers. In this narrow range, however, forcing increases on a time scale of slow
ocean advective processes results in weaker declines in overturning strength and can permit a run to recover that would otherwise
collapse. 相似文献
4.
A transient climate change simulation with greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing: projected climate to the twenty-first century 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
The potential climatic consequences of increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration and sulfate aerosol loading
are investigated for the years 1900 to 2100 based on five simulations with the CCCma coupled climate model. The five simulations
comprise a control experiment without change in GHG or aerosol amount, three independent simulations with increasing GHG and
aerosol forcing, and a simulation with increasing GHG forcing only. Climate warming accelerates from the present with global
mean temperatures simulated to increase by 1.7 °C to the year 2050 and by a further 2.7 °C by the year 2100. The warming is
non-uniform as to hemisphere, season, and underlying surface. Changes in interannual variability of temperature show considerable
structure and seasonal dependence. The effect of the comparatively localized negative radiative forcing associated with the
aerosol is to retard and reduce the warming by about 0.9 °C at 2050 and 1.2 °C at 2100. Its primary effect on temperature
is to counteract the global pattern of GHG-induced warming and only secondarily to affect local temperatures suggesting that
the first order transient climate response of the system is determined by feedback processes and only secondarily by the local
pattern of radiative forcing. The warming is accompanied by a more active hydrological cycle with increases in precipitation
and evaporation rates that are delayed by comparison with temperature increases. There is an “El Nino-like” shift in precipitation
and an overall increase in the interannual variability of precipitation. The effect of the aerosol forcing is again primarily
to delay and counteract the GHG-induced increase. Decreases in soil moisture are common but regionally dependent and interannual
variability changes show considerable structure. Snow cover and sea-ice retreat. A PNA-like anomaly in mean sea-level pressure
with an enhanced Aleutian low in northern winter is associated with the tropical shift in precipitation regime. The interannual
variability of mean sea-level pressure generally decreases with largest decreases in the tropical Indian ocean region. Changes
to the ocean thermal structure are associated with a spin-down of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation together with a decrease
in its variability. The effect of aerosol forcing, although modest, differs from that for most other quantities in that it
does not act primarily to counteract the GHG forcing effect. The barotropic stream function in the ocean exhibits modest change
in the north Pacific but accelerating changes in much of the Southern Ocean and particularly in the north Atlantic where the
gyre spins down in conjunction with the decrease in the thermohaline circulation. The results differ in non-trivial ways from
earlier equilibrium 2 × CO2 results with the CCCma model as a consequence of the coupling to a fully three-dimensional ocean model and the evolving nature
of the forcing.
Received: 24 September 1998 / Accepted: 8 October 1999 相似文献
5.
Observed and projected climate change in Taiwan 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Summary
This study examined the secular climate change characteristics in Taiwan over the past 100 years and the relationship with
the global climate change. Estimates for the likelihood of future climate changes in Taiwan were made based on the projection
from the IPCC climate models.
In the past 100 years, Taiwan experienced an island-wide warming trend (1.0–1.4 °C/100 years). Both the annual and daily temperature
ranges have also increased. The warming in Taiwan is closely connected to a large-scale circulation and SAT fluctuations,
such as the “cool ocean warm land” phenomenon. The water vapor pressure has increased significantly and could have resulted
in a larger temperature increase in summer. The probability for the occurrence of high temperatures has increased and the
result suggests that both the mean and variance in the SAT in Taiwan have changed significantly since the beginning of the
20th century. Although, as a whole, the precipitation in Taiwan has shown a tendency to increase in northern Taiwan and to
decrease in southern Taiwan in the past 100 years, it exhibits a more complicated spatial pattern. The changes occur mainly
in either the dry or rainy season and result in an enhanced seasonal cycle. The changes in temperature and precipitation are
consistent with the weakening of the East Asian monsoon.
Under consideration of both the warming effect from greenhouse gases and the cooling effect from aerosols, all projections
from climate models indicated a warmer climate near Taiwan in the future. The projected increase in the area-mean temperature
near Taiwan ranged from 0.9–2.7 °C relative to the 1961–1990 averaged temperature, when the CO2 concentration increased to 1.9 times the 1961–1990 level. These simulated temperature increases were statistically significant
and can be attributed to the radiative forcing associated with the increased concentration of greenhouse gases and aerosols.
The projected changes in precipitation were within the range of natural variability for all five models. There is no evidence
supporting the possibility of precipitation changes near Taiwan based on the simulations from five IPCC climate models.
Received February 5, 2001 Revised July 30, 2001 相似文献
6.
We compared regional biases and transient doubled CO2 sensitivities of nine coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) from six international climate modeling
groups. We evaluated biases and responses in winter and summer surface air temperatures and precipitation for seven subcontinental
regions, including those in the 1990 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Scientific Assessment. Regional biases
were large and exceeded the variance among four climatological datasets, indicating that model biases were not primarily due
to uncertainty in observations. Model responses to altered greenhouse forcing were substantial (average temperature change=2.7±0.9 °C, range of precipitation change =−35 to +120% of control). While coupled models include more climate system feedbacks than
earlier GCMs implemented with mixed-layer ocean models, inclusion of a dynamic ocean alone did not improve simulation of long-term
mean climatology nor increase convergence among model responses to altered greenhouse gas forcing. On the other hand, features
of some of the coupled models including flux adjustment (which may have simply masked simulation errors), high horizontal
resolution, and estimation of screen height temperature contributed to improved simulation of long-term surface climate. The
large range of model responses was partly accounted for by inconsistencies in forcing scenarios and transient-simulation averaging
periods. Nonetheless, the models generally had greater agreement in their sensitivities than their controls did with observations.
This suggests that consistent, large-scale response features from an ensemble of model sensitivity experiments may not depend
on details of their representation of present-day climate.
Received: 9 September 1996 / Revised: 31 July 1997 相似文献
7.
S. Gonzi O. Dubovik D. Baumgartner E. Putz 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2007,96(3-4):277-291
Summary One of the great unknowns in climate research is the contribution of aerosols to climate forcing and climate perturbation.
In this study, retrievals from AERONET are used to estimate the direct clear-sky aerosol top-of-atmosphere and surface radiative
forcing effects for 12 multi-site observing stations in Europe. The radiative transfer code sdisort in the libRadtran environment is applied to accomplish these estimations. Most of the calculations in this study rely on observations which
have been made for the years 1999, 2000, and 2001. Some stations do have observations dating back to the year of 1995. The
calculations rely on a pre-compiled aerosol optical properties database for Europe. Aerosol radiative forcing effects are
calculated with monthly mean aerosol optical properties retrievals and calculations are presented for three different surface
albedo scenarios. Two of the surface albedo scenarios are generic by nature bare soil and green vegetation and the third relies on the ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project) data product. The ISCCP database has
also been used to obtain clear-sky weighting fractions over AERONET stations. The AERONET stations cover the area 0° to 30° E
and 42° to 52° N. AERONET retrievals are column integrated and this study does not make any seperation between the contribution
of natural and anthropogenic components. For the 12 AERONET stations, median clear-sky top-of-atmosphere aerosol radiative
forcing effect values for different surface albedo scenarios are calculated to be in the range of −4 to −2 W/m2. High median radiative forcing effect values of about −6 W/m2 were found to occur mainly in the summer months while lower values of about −1 W/m2 occur in the winter months. The aerosol surface forcing also increases in summer months and can reach values of −8 W/m2. Individual stations often have much higher values by a factor of 2. The median top-of-atmosphere aerosol radiative forcing
effect efficiency is estimated to be about −25 W/m2 and their respective surface efficiency is around −35 W/m2. The fractional absorption coefficient is estimated to be 1.7, but deviates significantly from station to station. In addition,
it is found that the well known peak of the aerosol radiative forcing effect at a solar zenith angle of about 75° is in fact
the average of the peaks occurring at shorter and longer wavelengths. According to estimations for Central Europe, based on
mean aerosol optical properties retrievals from 12 stations, the critical threshold of the aerosol single scattering albedo,
between cooling and heating in the presence of an aerosol layer, is close between 0.6 and 0.76. 相似文献
8.
W. M. Connolley 《Climate Dynamics》1997,13(10):745-756
Using a hierarchy of climate models together with observations from gridded analyses, I examine the atmosphere-only and coupled
ocean-atmosphere variability in the general circulation for the region south of 40 °S. The variability in mean sea level pressure
(MSLP) is well simulated by the coupled models. A complication is that the difference between the two analyses used for verification
is comparable to the analysis-model differences. An increase in variability is seen within the hierarchy of model runs although
even a model without interannual variations in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) captures most of the observed variability.
The temporal variation in MSLP in southern high latitudes has a white spectrum consistent with “random” forcing by weather
events and a decoupling from oceanic “integration”. In contrast, the spatial pattern of MSLP variability shows large-scale
structure that is consistent between observations and various models, even without interannual variation in SSTs. This shows
that the models are sufficiently skillful to reproduce the pattern of observed variability and suggests that the pattern of
variability is a characteristic of the land-sea distribution and topography.
Received: 18 December 1996/Accepted: 23 May 1997 相似文献
9.
A time-slice experiment with the ECHAM4 AGCM at high resolution: the impact of horizontal resolution on annual mean climate change 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
The climate response to increasing levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases, prescribed according to the International Panel
of Climate Change (IPCC) scenario IS92a, is studied in two model simulations. The reference simulation is a transient response
experiment performed with a medium-resolution (T42) coupled general circulation model of the atmosphere and ocean (ECHAM4/OPYC)
developed at the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology. For two 30-year “time slices”, representing the present-day climate
and the future climate at the time of effective CO2 doubling, the annual mean climate states are compared with those obtained from the high-resolution (T106) ECHAM4 model forced
with monthly sea surface temperatures and sea-ice from the coupled model. The large-scale changes in temperature, zonal wind,
sea-level pressure and precipitation are broadly similar. This applies, in particular, to the respective zonal means. In general,
except for precipitation, the responses in the time-slice experiments are slightly weaker than those simulated in the coupled
model due to a smaller effect of the horizontal resolution on the simulations of the future (warmer) period than on the simulations
of the present period. On a regional scale, the impact of horizontal resolution is smaller in the Southern than in the Northern
Hemisphere, where the response differences are caused mainly by changes in the positions of the stationary waves. Although
the precipitation responses are broadly similar, there are few notable exceptions such as a more pronounced maximum over the
equatorial oceans in the T106 experiment but a weaker response over low-latitude land areas. Differences in precipitation
response are found especially in areas with strong topographical control such as South America, for example.
Received: 17 January 2000 / Accepted: 7 July 2000 相似文献
10.
The Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis global coupled model and its climate 总被引:16,自引:5,他引:11
G. M. Flato G. J. Boer W. G. Lee N. A. McFarlane D. Ramsden M. C. Reader A. J. Weaver 《Climate Dynamics》2000,16(6):451-467
A global, three-dimensional climate model, developed by coupling the CCCma second-generation atmospheric general circulation
model (GCM2) to a version of the GFDL modular ocean model (MOM1), forms the basis for extended simulations of past, current
and projected future climate. The spin-up and coupling procedures are described, as is the resulting climate based on a 200 year
model simulation with constant atmospheric composition and external forcing. The simulated climate is systematically compared
to available observations in terms of mean climate quantities and their spatial patterns, temporal variability, and regional
behavior. Such comparison demonstrates a generally successful reproduction of the broad features of mean climate quantities,
albeit with local discrepancies. Variability is generally well-simulated over land, but somewhat underestimated in the tropical
ocean and the extratropical storm-track regions. The modelled climate state shows only small trends, indicating a reasonable
level of balance at the surface, which is achieved in part by the use of heat and freshwater flux adjustments. The control
simulation provides a basis against which to compare simulated climate change due to historical and projected greenhouse gas
and aerosol forcing as described in companion publications.
Received: 24 September 1998 / Accepted: 8 October 1999 相似文献
11.
Arun Chakraborty H. C. Upadhyaya O. P. Sharma Divya Jaisawal S. K. Deb 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2003,83(3-4):197-220
Summary ?A three-dimensional Ocean General Circulation Model has been developed in stretched coordinate from scratch. The same model
has been used to perform some numerical experiments to simulate the basic circulation pattern and the model variability to
atmospheric forcing. For numerical simulations 72 × 25 grid points in the horizontal directions and nine (10, 30, 75, 250,
500, 1000, 1500, 2000 and 3000 m) vertical levels are considered. The lateral boundaries are set at 60° N and 60° S. The basic
focus of the paper is on the demonstration of the performance of the model and its assessment by employing appropriate forcing
from the outputs of an atmospheric general circulation model. Hence, the model was forced with the forcing (wind and thermodynamic)
derived from the ECMWF runs from the AMIP archives. The preliminary results show the realistic simulation of basic pattern
of different fields. The model simulations show that the model is able to reproduce some of the general features of the ocean,
such as surface currents, surface temperature and salinity, mass transport and meridional heat transport. It is also to be
noted that the model is capable to capture the El-Ni?o and La-Ni?a type events.
Received April 3, 2002; revised June 6, 2002; accepted July 24, 2002
Published online: February 20, 2003 相似文献
12.
We demonstrate that a hemispherically averaged upwelling-diffusion energy-balance climate model (UD/EBM) can emulate the
surface air temperature change and sea-level rise due to thermal expansion, predicted by the HadCM2 coupled atmosphere-ocean
general circulation model, for various scenarios of anthropogenic radiative forcing over 1860–2100. A climate sensitivity
of 2.6 °C is assumed, and a representation of the effect of sea-ice retreat on surface air temperature is required. In an
extended experiment, with CO2 concentration held constant at twice the control run value, the HadCM2 effective climate sensitivity is found to increase
from about 2.0 °C at the beginning of the integration to 3.85 °C after 900 years. The sea-level rise by this time is almost
1.0 m and the rate of rise fairly steady, implying that the final equilibrium value (the `commitment') is large. The base
UD/EBM can fit the 900-year simulation of surface temperature change and thermal expansion provided that the time-dependent
climate sensitivity is specified, but the vertical profile of warming in the ocean is not well reproduced. The main discrepancy
is the relatively large mid-depth warming in the HadCM2 ocean, that can be emulated by (1) diagnosing depth-dependent diffusivities
that increase through time; (2) diagnosing depth-dependent diffusivities for a pure-diffusion (zero upwelling) model; or (3)
diagnosing higher depth-dependent diffusivities that are applied to temperature perturbations only. The latter two models can be run to equilibrium, and with a climate sensitivity of 3.85 °C, they give sea-level rise
commitments of 1.7 m and 1.3 m, respectively.
Received: 27 April 1999 / Accepted: 13 September 2000 相似文献
13.
The coupling of optimal economic growth and climate dynamics 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Olivier Bahn Laurent Drouet Neil R. Edwards Alain Haurie Reto Knutti Socrates Kypreos Thomas F. Stocker Jean-Philippe Vial 《Climatic change》2006,79(1-2):103-119
In this paper, we study optimal economic growth programs coupled with climate change dynamics. The study is based on models derived from MERGE, a well established integrated assessment model (IAM). We discuss first the introduction in MERGE of a set of “tolerable window” constraints which limit both the temperature change and the rate of temperature change. These constraints, obtained from ensemble simulations performed with the Bern 2.5-D climate model, allow us to identity a domain intended to preserve the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. Next, we report on experiments where a two-way coupling is realized between the economic module of MERGE and an intermediate complexity “3-D-” climate model (C-GOLDSTEIN) which computes the changes in climate and mean temperature. The coupling is achieved through the implementation of an advanced “oracle based optimization technique” which permits the integration of information coming from the climate model during the search for the optimal economic growth path. Both cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit analysis modes are explored with this combined “meta-model” which we refer to as GOLDMERGE. Some perspectives on future implementations of these approaches in the context of “collaborative” or “community” integrated assessment modules are derived from the comparison of the different approaches. 相似文献
14.
This work concerns an analysis of inter-basin and inter-layer exchanges in the component ocean part of the coupled ECHAM4/OPYC3
general circulation model, aimed at documenting the simulation of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) and related thermohaline
circulations in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. The modeled NADW is formed mainly in the Greenland– Iceland–Norwegian Seas
through a composite effect of deep convection and downward cross-isopycnal transport. The modeled deep-layer outflow of NADW
can reach 16 Sv near 30 °S in the South Atlantic, with the corresponding upper-layer return flow mainly coming from the “cold
water path” through Drake Passage. Less than 4 Sv of the Agulhas “leakage” water contributes to the replacement of NADW along
the “warm water path”. In the South Atlantic Ocean, the model shows that some intermediate isopycnal layers with potential
densities ranging between 27.0 and 27.5 are the major water source that compensate the NADW return flow and enhance the Circumpolar
Deep Water (CDW) flowing from the Atlantic into Indian Ocean. The modeled thermohaline circulations in the Indian and Pacific
Oceans indicate that the Indian Ocean may play the major role in converting deep water into intermediate water. About 16 Sv
of the CDW-originating deep water enters the Indian Ocean northward of 31 °S, of which more than 13 Sv “upwell” mainly near
the continental boundaries of Africa, South Asia and Australia through inter-layer exchanges and return to the Antarctic Circumpolar
Current (ACC) as intermediate-layer water. As a contrast, only 4 Sv of Pacific intermediate water is connected to “upwelling”
flow southward across 31 °S while the magnitude of northward deep flow across 31 °S in the Pacific Ocean is significantly
greater than that in the Indian Ocean. The model suggests that a large portion of the deep waters entering the Pacific Ocean
(about 14 Sv) “upwells” continually into some upper layers through the thermocline, and becomes the source of the Indonesian
throughflow. Uncertainties in these results may be related to the incomplete adjustment of the model’s isopycnal layers and
the sensitivity of the Indonesian throughflow to the model’s geography and topography.
Received: 12 August 1997/Accepted: 12 March 1998 相似文献
15.
The predictability of atmospheric responses to global sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies is evaluated using ensemble
simulations of two general circulation models (GCMs): the GENESIS version 1.5 (GEN) and the ECMWF cycle 36 (ECM). The integrations
incorporate observed SST variations but start from different initial land and atmospheric states. Five GEN 1980–1992 and six
ECM 1980–1988 realizations are compared with observations to distinguish predictable SST forced climate signals from internal
variability. To facilitate the study, correlation analysis and significance evaluation techniques are developed on the basis
of time series permutations. It is found that the annual mean global area with realistic signals is variable dependent and
ranges from 3 to 20% in GEN and 6 to 28% in ECM. More than 95% of these signal areas occur between 35 °S–35 °N. Due to the
existence of model biases, robust responses, which are independent of initial condition, are identified over broader areas.
Both GCMs demonstrate that the sensitivity to initial conditions decreases and the predictability of SST forced responses
increases, in order, from 850 hPa zonal wind, outgoing longwave radiation, 200 hPa zonal wind, sea-level pressure to 500 hPa
height. The predictable signals are concentrated in the tropical and subtropical Pacific Ocean and are identified with typical
El Ni?o/ Southern Oscillation phenomena that occur in response to SST and diabatic heating anomalies over the equatorial central
Pacific. ECM is less sensitive to initial conditions and better predicts SST forced climate changes. This results from (1)
a more realistic basic climatology, especially of the upper-level wind circulation, that produces more realistic interactions
between the mean flow, stationary waves and tropical forcing; (2) a more vigorous hydrologic cycle that amplifies the tropical
forcing signals, which can exceed internal variability and be more efficiently transported from the forcing region. Differences
between the models and observations are identified. For GEN during El Ni?o, the convection does not carry energy to a sufficiently
high altitude, while the spread of the tropospheric warming along the equator is slower and the anomaly magnitude smaller
than observed. This impacts model ability to simulate realistic responses over Eurasia and the Indian Ocean. Similar biases
exist in the ECM responses. In addition, the relationships between upper and lower tropospheric wind responses to SST forcing
are not well reproduced by either model. The identification of these model biases leads to the conclusion that improvements
in convective heat and momentum transport parametrizations and basic climate simulations could substantially increase predictive
skill.
Received: 25 April 1996 / Accepted: 9 December 1996 相似文献
16.
Trace Metal Solid State Speciation in Aerosols of the Northern Levantine Basin,East Mediterranean 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
Mustafa Koçak Nilgun Kubilay Barak Herut Malcolm Nimmo 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》2007,56(3):239-257
An established three stage sequential leach scheme was applied to a series of selected high volume aerosol samples (n = 35) collected from the Turkish Eastern Mediterranean coastline (Erdemli). Samples were selected according to their air
mass back trajectory history to reflect the contrasting mixtures of aerosol material present in the Eastern Mediterranean
marine aerosol. Two populations were adopted, those samples which were classed as “anthropogenic” and those which were “Saharan”
dominated aerosol populations. Applying the three stage leach it was possible to define the proportion for each of the considered
metals (Al, Fe, Cu, Pb, Cd, Zn and Mn) present in the (a) “exchangeable” (b) “carbonate / oxide” and (c) “refractory” phases,
representing novel solid state aerosol speciation data for this marine system. Clear trends were established, conforming with
data from previous studies with mainly crustal derived metals (Al and Fe) being present in the refractory phases (Al > 88%;
Fe > 84%) and those influenced by anthropogenic sources being dominating in the exchangeable phase, although for these metals
the variability was comparatively high (12–64%; 19–85%; 40–100% for Zn, Pb and Cd, respectively). For the majority, greater
exchangeable fractions were present the lower the crustal source contribution to the aerosol population, whereas the “refractory”
fraction exhibited contrasting behaviour. This was illustrated by the novel application of the mixing diagram, presenting
each of the three speciation stages against the corresponding percent anthropogenic contribution to each collected sample.
Zn, Pb and Cd all illustrated progressive decrease in the percent exchangeable with increasing crustal contribution to the
aerosol population. The percent exchangeable was discussed in terms of its use to represent the upper limit of the bioavailable
fraction of metal associated with the aerosol, post deposition. The mixing diagram approach enabled the prediction of the
residual fractions for Cd, Pb and Zn (41 ± 4%; 62 ± 4% and 82 ± 5%, respectively,) in Saharan end-member material. 相似文献
17.
Haiyan Teng Warren M. Washington Gerald A. Meehl Lawrence E. Buja Gary W. Strand 《Climate Dynamics》2006,26(6):601-616
Arctic climate change in the Twenty-first century is simulated by the Community Climate System Model version 3.0 (CCSM3).
The simulations from three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1) are analyzed using eight (A1B and B1) or five (A2) ensemble
members. The model simulates a reasonable present-day climate and historical climate trend. The model projects a decline of
sea-ice extent in the range of 1.4–3.9% per decade and 4.8–22.2% per decade in winter and summer, respectively, corresponding
to the range of forcings that span the scenarios. At the end of the Twenty-first century, the winter and summer Arctic mean
surface air temperature increases in a range of 4–14°C (B1 and A2) and 0.7–5°C (B1 and A2) relative to the end of the Twentieth
century. The Arctic becomes ice-free during summer at the end of the Twenty-first century in the A2 scenario. Similar to the
observations, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is the dominant factor in explaining the variability of the atmosphere and sea ice
in the 1870–1999 historical runs. The AO shifts to the positive phase in response to greenhouse gas forcings in the Twenty-first
century. But the simulated trends in both Arctic mean sea-level pressure and the AO index are smaller than what has been observed.
The Twenty-first century Arctic warming mainly results from the radiative forcing of greenhouse gases. The 1st empirical orthogonal
function (explains 72.2–51.7% of the total variance) of the wintertime surface air temperature during 1870–2099 is characterized
by a strong warming trend and a “polar amplification”-type of spatial pattern. The AO, which plays a secondary role, contributes
to less than 10% of the total variance in both surface temperature and sea-ice concentration. 相似文献
18.
G. C. Hegerl K. Hasselmann U. Cubasch J. F. B. Mitchell E. Roeckner R. Voss J. Waszkewitz 《Climate Dynamics》1997,13(9):613-634
A multi-fingerprint analysis is applied to the detection and attribution of anthropogenic climate change. While a single
fingerprint is optimal for the detection of climate change, further tests of the statistical consistency of the detected climate
change signal with model predictions for different candidate forcing mechanisms require the simultaneous application of several
fingerprints. Model-predicted climate change signals are derived from three anthropogenic global warming simulations for the
period 1880 to 2049 and two simulations forced by estimated changes in solar radiation from 1700 to 1992. In the first global
warming simulation, the forcing is by greenhouse gas only, while in the remaining two simulations the direct influence of
sulfate aerosols is also included. From the climate change signals of the greenhouse gas only and the average of the two greenhouse
gas-plus-aerosol simulations, two optimized fingerprint patterns are derived by weighting the model-predicted climate change
patterns towards low-noise directions. The optimized fingerprint patterns are then applied as a filter to the observed near-surface
temperature trend patterns, yielding several detection variables. The space-time structure of natural climate variability
needed to determine the optimal fingerprint pattern and the resultant signal-to-noise ratio of the detection variable is estimated
from several multi-century control simulations with different CGCMs and from instrumental data over the last 136 y. Applying
the combined greenhouse gas-plus-aerosol fingerprint in the same way as the greenhouse gas only fingerprint in a previous
work, the recent 30-y trends (1966–1995) of annual mean near surface temperature are again found to represent a significant
climate change at the 97.5% confidence level. However, using both the greenhouse gas and the combined forcing fingerprints
in a two-pattern analysis, a substantially better agreement between observations and the climate model prediction is found
for the combined forcing simulation. Anticipating that the influence of the aerosol forcing is strongest for longer term temperature
trends in summer, application of the detection and attribution test to the latest observed 50-y trend pattern of summer temperature
yielded statistical consistency with the greenhouse gas-plus-aerosol simulation with respect to both the pattern and amplitude
of the signal. In contrast, the observations are inconsistent with the greenhouse-gas only climate change signal at a 95%
confidence level for all estimates of climate variability. The observed trend 1943–1992 is furthermore inconsistent with a
hypothesized solar radiation change alone at an estimated 90% confidence level. Thus, in contrast to the single pattern analysis,
the two pattern analysis is able to discriminate between different forcing hypotheses in the observed climate change signal.
The results are subject to uncertainties associated with the forcing history, which is poorly known for the solar and aerosol
forcing, the possible omission of other important forcings, and inevitable model errors in the computation of the response
to the forcing. Further uncertainties in the estimated significance levels arise from the use of model internal variability
simulations and relatively short instrumental observations (after subtraction of an estimated greenhouse gas signal) to estimate
the natural climate variability. The resulting confidence limits accordingly vary for different estimates using different
variability data. Despite these uncertainties, however, we consider our results sufficiently robust to have some confidence
in our finding that the observed climate change is consistent with a combined greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing, but inconsistent
with greenhouse gas or solar forcing alone.
Received: 28 April 1996 / Accepted: 27 January 1997 相似文献
19.
Numerical convergence of the dynamics of a GCM 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) are characterized by many features but especially by: (1) the manner of discretizing the governing equations and of representing the variables involved at a given resolution, and (2) the manner of parameterizing unresolved physical processes in terms of those resolved variables. These two aspects of model formulation are not independent
and it is difficult to untangle their intertwined effects when assessing model performance. The attempt here is to separate
these aspects of GCM behaviour and to ask, “Given a perfect parameterization of the physical processes in a model, what resolution is needed to capture the dominant dynamical aspects
of the atmospheric climate?” Alternatively, “At what resolution do the dynamics of a GCM converge”? The perfect parameterization
approach assumes that the calculation of the physical terms returns the “correct” result at all resolutions. In the idealized
case, a time-independent forcing is one of the simplest that satisfies this condition. However, experiments show that it is
difficult for the dynamics of a GCM to balance a time-independent forcing with atmosphere-like flows and structures. The model
requires, and the atmosphere presumably includes, physical feedback mechanisms which act so as to maintain the kinds of flows
and structures that are observed. Resolution experiments are performed with a simplified forcing function for the thermodynamic
equation which combines a dominant time-independent specified forcing with a weak linear relaxation feedback. These experiments
show that the dynamics of the GCM have essentially converged at T32 and certainly by T63 which is the next resolution considered.
This is shown by the constancy of structures, variances, covariances, transports and energy budgets with increasing resolution.
Experiments with an alternative forcing proposed by Held and Suarez, which has the form of a linear relaxation, show somewhat
less evidence of convergence at these resolutions. In both cases the “physics” are known by assumption. However, the form
and nature of the forcing is different, as is the behaviour with resolution. The implication for the real system is that the
resolution required for simulating the dynamical aspects of climate is rather modest. The simulated climate does, however, apparently depend on the ability to correctly and
consistently parameterize the physical processes in a GCM, involving both forcing and feedback mechanisms, as a function of
resolution.
Received 19 January 1996/Accepted 22 August 1996 相似文献
20.
Evaluation of the North Atlantic Oscillation as simulated by a coupled climate model 总被引:12,自引:1,他引:11
T. J. Osborn K. R. Briffa S. F. B. Tett P. D. Jones R. M. Trigo 《Climate Dynamics》1999,15(9):685-702
The realism of the Hadley Centre’s coupled climate model (HadCM2) is evaluated in terms of its simulation of the winter North
Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a major natural mode of the Northern Hemisphere atmosphere that is currently the subject of considerable
scientific interest. During 1400 y of a control integration with present-day radiative forcing levels, HadCM2 exhibits a realistic
NAO associated with spatial patterns of sea level pressure, synoptic activity, temperature and precipitation anomalies that
are very similar to those observed. Spatially, the main model deficiency is that the simulated NAO has a teleconnection with
the North Pacific that is stronger than observed. In a temporal sense the simulation is compatible with the observations if
the recent observed trend (from low values in the 1960s to high values in the early 1990s) in the winter NAO index (the pressure
difference between Gibraltar and Iceland) is ignored. This recent trend is, however, outside the range of variability simulated
by the control integration of HadCM2, implying that either the model is deficient or that external forcing is responsible
for the variation. It is shown, by analysing two ensembles, each of four HadCM2 integrations that were forced with historic
and possible future changes in greenhouse gas and sulphate aerosol concentrations, that a small part of the recent observed
variation may be a result of anthropogenic forcing. If so, then the HadCM2 experiments indicate that the anthropogenic effect
should reverse early next century, weakening the winter pressure gradient between Gibraltar and Iceland. Even combining this
anthropogenic forcing and internal variability cannot explain all of the recent observed variations, indicating either some
model deficiency or that some other external forcing is partly responsible.
Received: 20 August 1998 / Accepted: 12 May 1999 相似文献