How can stream bank erosion be predicted on small water courses? Verification of BANCS model on the Kubrica watershed

The current paper deals with the evaluation of the BANCS erosion prediction model and its two componentsethe Bank Erosion Hazard Index(BEHI)and Near-Bank Stress(NBS)indices.To construct the erosion prediction curves,18 experimental sections were established on the Kubrica Stream,district of Trencín,Slovakia.Each section was assessed through the NBS index and BEHI index and real annual bank erosion was measured using erosion toe pins.Subsequently,the relations between the BEHI and real annual bank erosion was assessed through regression and correlation analyses.The relation proved to be moderately strong,with the correlation coefficient(R)reaching 0.47.Further,the relation between the NBS index and real annual bank erosion was evaluated,which was also moderately strong,with R=0.65.Based on the measured data,two erosion prediction curves were constructed,the first for moderate BEHI,with R=0.69 and coefficient of determination(R2)of 0.47 and the second for high BEHI with R=0.74 and R2=0.55.The prediction curves were based on data from one year of measurements and can,therefore,be used only for discharges that occurred within that year and in the region where the model was developed.In the current case,according to runoff Curve Numbers(CN),the real culmination discharge was Q=1.88 m3/s,which is roughly equivalent to 1.5-year recurrence interval flow(Q1.5).     

How can the ISC location procedures be improved?

For many decades the International Seismological Centre (ISC) has used a well defined procedure to locate seismic events using first P-onsets and the Jeffreys-Bullen tables ([Jeffreys, H., Bullen, K.E., 1940. Seismological Tables. British Association for the Advancement of Science, Gray Milne Trust, London, 50 pp]) as the travel-time reference. However, during the last two decades, more accurate spherical Earth models have been published and enhanced computer capabilities make it easier to implement more sophisticated data inversion schemes. Several features that may improve the location procedure at the ISC were systematically tested using the location program HYPOSAT. The investigated features were the influence of

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the usage of the spherical Earth models JB, PREM, IASP91, SP6, and AK135;

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the usage of later onsets;

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travel-time corrections for local crustal structure based on CRUST 5.1;

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different weighting of the residuals;

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reducing the amount of defining data at a late stage of the inversion process.

Application of different combinations of these factors led to a reduction of the location errors for the 156 test events, of which the epicenter is known with an accuracy of less than 5 km. However, no clear rule of common factors to achieve this result could be defined. Most promising is the application of AK135 as model for travel-time calculations, applying crust specific station corrections and corrections for the reflection points of surface reflections, a combined usage of surface and core reflections, and removing data which have large residuals or do not much contribute to the solution for the last iterations.     

How can the uncertainty in the natural inflow regime propagate into the assessment of water resource systems?

The Canadian Rocky Mountain headwaters support the water resource systems of the Canadian Prairies. Significant variations in natural headwater contributions have been observed due to warming climate. Projecting future natural headwater flows under climate change effects, however, has large uncertainty. First, there are difficulties in climate modeling and downscaling in alpine regions. Second, streamflow modeling in mountainous areas is extremely challenging. There is therefore a need to understand the effects of uncertainty in the natural inflow regime, and in particular how this translates into uncertainty in representing the state and the outflow of water resource systems. Considering the Oldman River basin in Alberta, Canada, we synthesized different inflow regimes based on site/inter-site properties of the historical inflow regime. The water resources system was then conditioned on the synthesized inflow regimes to identify the mechanisms of error propagation from the headwater streamflows to the water allocations. The results show that the response of the water resource system to the uncertainty in the generated inflow regime depends on the system state, flow condition and the component of interest. Generally, the response of the reservoirs to the uncertainty in the estimated inflow regime is more significant in dry years, in particular during low flow conditions. The response at the system outlet is rather different, as the propagation of the headwater uncertainty is more significant during high flow conditions. Also, similar inflow estimates in terms of error and uncertainty may result in different error and uncertainty estimates in the simulated outflows; therefore, lower bias and uncertainty in estimating the regional inflow regime does not necessarily mean lower bias and uncertainty in simulating the streamflow at the outlet of the system. Our results provide improved understanding of uncertainty propagation through complex water resource systems, but also portray the need for better climate and hydrological modeling in the Rocky Mountains for improved water management in the Canadian Prairies, particularly in the face of uncertain climate futures. This will be crucial if the natural headwater inflows decline and/or the system faces drought conditions.     

How well can the subsurface storage–discharge relation be interpreted and predicted using the geometric factors in headwater areas?

Headwater storage–discharge (S–Q) remains one of the least understood processes, and there is renewed interest in the S–Q relation. How well can the S–Q relation be interpreted mechanistically using geometric factors? In this paper, the hillslope storage Boussinesq and hillslope storage kinematic wave equation were adopted to guide the theoretical derivations. Analytical solutions were derived based on the hsKW equation for nine idealized hillslope aquifers, which were subdivided into two groups, i.e. hillslope aquifers with exponential hillslope width function (C1) and hillslope aquifers with Gaussian hillslope width function (C2). We found that analytical expressions of the S–Q relation can be derived for C1 hillslope aquifers. For more compound hillslope aquifers, i.e. C2, no explicit S–Q relation can be obtained. The whole subsurface recession after a rainstorm is simulated by applying the initial saturation condition. We found that the simulated S–Q processes can be characterized by a two‐phase recession, i.e. quick and slow recession. The time (t_b) at the dividing point of the quick and slow recessions depends on the geometric factors, such as the plan and profile curvature. In the quick recession for C1, many of the S–Q curves can be described as linear or quasi‐linear functions, which indicate that linear reservoir models can be applied approximately for recession simulations. However, during the slow recession phase of C1 and during the whole recession of C2, the S–Q relations are highly non‐linear. Finally, we compared the hillslope storage kinematic wave and hillslope storage Boussinesq models for simulating subsurface water recession after a rainstorm event in a real‐world headwater catchment (G5) in China. Through comparison of the recession slope curves, we found that the simulated results of the models employing the Gaussian hillslope width function match the observed hydrograph. The results indicated that appropriate organization of the hillslope geometric factors enhances our ability to make S–Q predictions. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

How does water near clay mineral surfaces influence the rock physics of shales?

Clays and clay‐bearing rocks like shale are extremely water sensitive. This is partly due to the interaction between water and mineral surfaces, strengthened by the presence of nanometer‐size pores and related large specific surface areas. Molecular‐scale numerical simulations, using a discrete‐element model, show that shear rigidity can be associated with structurally ordered (bound or adsorbed) water near charged surfaces. Building on these and other molecular dynamics simulations plus nanoscale experiments from the literature, the water monolayer adjacent to hydrophilic solid surfaces appears to be characterised by shear stiffness and/or enhanced viscosity. In both cases, elastic wave propagation will be affected by the bound or adsorbed water. Using a simple rock physics model, bound water properties were adjusted to match laboratory measured P‐ and S‐wave velocities on pure water‐saturated kaolinite and smectite. To fit the measured stress sensitivity, particularly for kaolinite, the contribution from solid‐grain contact stiffness needs to be added. The model predicts, particularly for S‐waves, that viscoelastic bound water could be a source of dispersion in clay and clay‐rich rocks. The bound‐water‐based rock physics model is found to represent a lower bound to laboratory‐measured velocities obtained with shales of different mineralogy and porosity levels.     

On the predictability of high water level along the US East Coast: can the Florida Current measurement be an indicator for flooding caused by remote forcing?

Recent studies show that in addition to wind and air pressure effects, a significant portion of the variability of coastal sea level (CSL) along the US East Coast can be attributed to non-local factors such as variations in the Gulf Stream and the North Atlantic circulation; these variations can cause unpredictable coastal flooding. The Florida Current transport (FCT) measurement across the Florida Straits monitors those variations, and thus, the study evaluated the potential of using the FCT as an indicator for anomalously high water level along the coast. Hourly water level data from 12 tide gauge stations over 12 years are used to construct records of maximum daily water levels (MDWL) that are compared with the daily FCT data. An empirical mode decomposition (EMD) approach is used to divide the data into high-frequency modes (periods T < ～30 days), middle-frequency modes (～30 days < T < ～90 days), and low-frequency modes (～90 days < T < ～1 year). Two predictive measures are tested: FCT and FCT change (FCC). FCT is anti-correlated with MDWL in high-frequency modes but positively correlated with MDWL in low-frequency modes. FCC on the other hand is always anti-correlated with MDWL for all frequency bands, and the high water signal lags behind FCC for almost all stations, thus providing a potential predictive skill (i.e., whenever a weakening trend is detected in the FCT, anomalously high water is expected along the coast over the next few days). The MDWL-FCT correlation in the high-frequency modes is maximum in the lower Mid-Atlantic Bight, suggesting influence from the meandering Gulf Stream after it separates from the coast. However, the correlation in low-frequency modes is maximum in the South Atlantic Bight, suggesting impact from variations in the wind pattern over subtropical regions. The middle-frequency and low-frequency modes of the FCT seem to provide the best predictor for medium to large flooding events; it is estimated that ～10–25% of the sea level variability in those modes can be attributed to variations in the FCT. An example from Hurricane Joaquin (September–October, 2015) demonstrates how an offshore storm that never made landfall can cause a weakening of the FCT and unexpected high water level and flooding along the US East Coast. A regression-prediction model based on the MDWL-FCT correlation shows some skill in estimating high water levels during past storms; the water level prediction is more accurate for slow-moving and offshore storms than it is for fast-moving storms. The study can help to improve water level prediction since current storm surge models rely on local wind but may ignore remote forcing.     

Climate change impacts on groundwater hydrology – where are the main uncertainties and can they be reduced?

ABSTRACT

This paper assesses how various sources of uncertainty propagate through the uncertainty cascade from emission scenarios through climate models and hydrological models to impacts, with a particular focus on groundwater aspects from a number of coordinated studies in Denmark. Our results are similar to those from surface water studies showing that climate model uncertainty dominates the results for projections of climate change impacts on streamflow and groundwater heads. However, we found uncertainties related to geological conceptualization and hydrological model discretization to be dominant for projections of well field capture zones, while the climate model uncertainty here is of minor importance. How to reduce the uncertainties on climate change impact projections related to groundwater is discussed, with an emphasis on the potential for reducing climate model biases through the use of fully coupled climate–hydrology models.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor not assigned     

How is water availability related to the land use and morphology of an inland valley wetland in Kenya?

Small inland valley wetlands contribute substantially to the livelihoods of rural communities in East Africa. Their conversion into farmland is driven by water availability. We quantified spatial-temporal dynamics of water availability in a headwater wetland in the humid zone of Kenya. Climatic conditions, soil moisture contents, groundwater levels and discharge data were monitored. A land-use map and a digital elevation model of the valley bottom were created to relate variations in soil moisture to dominant land uses and valley morphology.Upland crops occupied about a third of the wetland area, while approximately a quarter of the wet, central part of the valley bottom was designated for flood-tolerant taro, grown either by itself or in association or in rotation with upland crops. Finally, natural vegetation was found in 3% of the mapped area, mainly in sections with nearpermanent soil saturation.The HBV rainfall-runoff model's overestimation of stream discharge during the long dry season of the hydrological year 2010/2011 can be explained by the strong seasonal impact of water abstraction on the wetland's water balance.Our study vividly demonstrates the necessity of multi-method approaches for assessing the impact of management practices on water availability in valley bottom wetlands in East Africa.     

What factors drive seasonal variation of phytoplankton,protozoans and metazoans on leaves of Posidonia oceanica and in the water column along the coast of the Kerkennah Islands,Tunisia?

A hierarchical sampling design was used during two seasons (spring (May) and summer (August) 2006). Using this design, three regions of the Kerkennah Islands (Tunisia) were analyzed for the distribution of microalgal, protozoan and metazoan assemblages in two different habitats: (1) the water column; and (2) on Posidonia oceanica (L.) Delile (P. oceanica) leaves in shallow meadows. A total of 85 species were obtained. In particular, the diatom family Naviculacea consistently dominated (both numerically and in their diversity) the micro-algae in all regions for the two seasons of the study and in both habitats. In the Chergui region, which is the closest area to a source of impact, fast growing centric diatoms (such as Thalassionema, Rhizosolenia, Striatella, and Skeletonema) were identified as indicators of high organic matter and nutrient enrichment in water bodies. Protozoan and metazoan species abundance in the different regions indicate a non-random spatial and temporal distribution of the epiphytic organisms on leaves of P. oceanica that correlated with phytoplankton. The results also indicate that (1) the abundance of micro- and macroorganisms in the three regions were higher on P. oceanica leaves than in the water column for the two seasons; (2) environmental factors such as currents and tide influenced assemblages; and (3) the highest abundance was due to direct exposure to the polluted coast of Sfax and the effect of tidal asymmetries generating nutrient-rich inputs from the city.     

How fast does tufa grow? Very high-resolution measurement of the tufa growth rate on artificial substrates by the development of a contactless image-based modelling device

Accurate determination of the tufa growth rate (TGR) is required to answer the fundamental geomorphological question of tufa evolution. The TGR has been measured by various direct and indirect methods. One of the most popular direct methods uses modified micro-erosion meter (MEM), which has several drawbacks. Here, we present for the first time a coordinate measuring macro-photogrammetry device (CMD) for monitoring the TGR in a contactless manner. The CMD was applied on 28 limestone plates at 14 locations within the Skradinski buk area, Croatia, and measurements were performed in the laboratory. The TGR was derived from digital tufa high-resolution models (DTHRMs). The accuracy of the device was evaluated using state-of-the-art three-dimensional (3D) scanners and error calculation at checkpoints. Moreover, the precision was evaluated with the split test (n = 5). A total of 74 DTHRMs with a spatial resolution of 0.0236 mm were created. The TGR ranged from 0.327 to 19.302 mm a⁻¹, with an average of 5.771 mm a⁻¹. A higher TGR was observed on the limestone plates near mosses, located in fast and turbulent water rather than in stagnant water. We found that specific micro-environmental factors (e.g. proximity to moss) positively affected tufa growth. Erosion events were observed, as well as the presence of aquatic insect larvae (Simuliidae and Chironomidae), which positively affected tufa growth. The CMD is a precise and accurate device that does not suffer from the drawbacks of the MEM method and has many other advantages. It has a high capability of tufa erosion detection, enables the identification of macroinvertebrates, and multispectral or hyperspectral cameras can be mounted on the device for spectral reflectance analysis of the tufa surface. The CMD can be applied in any study requiring a sub-millimetre data quality and involving the comparison of consecutive 3D models and derivation of various parameters of smaller objects. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A field,laboratory, and literature review evaluation of the water retention curve of volcanic ash soils: How well do standard laboratory methods reflect field conditions?

Accurate determination of the water retention curve (WRC) of a soil is essential for the understanding and modelling of the subsurface hydrological, ecological, and biogeochemical processes. Volcanic ash soils with andic properties (Andosols) are recognized as important providers of ecological and hydrological services in mountainous regions worldwide due to their large fraction of small size particles (clay, silt, and organic matter) that gives them an outstanding water holding capacity. Previous comparative analyses of in situ (field) and standard laboratory methods for the determination of the WRC of Andosols showed contrasting results. Based on an extensive analysis of laboratory, experimental, and field measured WRCs of Andosols in combination with data extracted from the published literature we show that standard laboratory methods using small soil sample volumes (≤300 cm³) mimic the WRC of these soils only partially. The results obtained by the latter resemble only a small portion of the wet range of the Andosols' WRC (from saturation up to −5 kPa, or pF 1.7), but overestimate substantially their water content for higher matric potentials. This discrepancy occurs irrespective of site-specific land use and cover, soil properties, and applied method. The disagreement limits our capacity to infer correctly subsurface hydrological behaviour, as illustrated through the analysis of long-term soil moisture and matric potential data from an experimental site in the tropical Andes. These findings imply that results reported in past research should be used with caution and that future research should focus on determining laboratory methods that allow obtaining a correct characterization of the WRC of Andosols. For the latter, a set of recommendations and future directions to solve the identified methodological issues is proposed.     

Simulation of surface runoff and sediment yield using the water erosion prediction project (WEPP) model: a study in Kaneli watershed,Himalaya, India / Simulation de ruissellement de surface et d'érosion à l'aide du modèle WEPP: cas du bassin versant de Kaneli,Himalaya, Inde

Abstract

The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model was calibrated and evaluated for estimation of runoff and sediment yield in the data-scarce conditions of the Indian Himalaya. The inputs derived from remote sensing and geographic information system technologies were combined in the WEPP modelling system to simulate surface runoff and sediment yield from the hilly Kaneli watershed. The model parameters were calibrated using measured data on runoff volumes and sediment yield. The calibrated model was validated by producing the monthly runoff and sediment yield simulations and comparing them with data that were not used in calibration. The model was also used to make surface runoff and sediment yield simulations for each of the individual watershed elements, comprising 18 hillslopes and seven channels, and the detailed monthly results for each are presented. Although, no field data on hillslope runoff and sediment yield are currently available for the validation of distributed results produced by the model, the present investigation has demonstrated clearly the applicability of the WEPP model in predicting hydrological variables in a data-scarce situation.