Probability of earthquake occurrence estimated from results of rock fracture experiments

The hazard rate, the number of fracture occurrences per unit time, which has been obtained from laboratory experiments of rock fracture, is obtained for the earth's crust by analysing the statistical distribution of geodetically-observed ultimate strain. The associated hazard function has two coefficients, A and B, to be determined. Comparison of the coefficients obtained by the results of rock-fracture experiments with the geodetically determined ones discloses that B is independent of the size-effect. It is therefore concluded that, if A is estimated from the statistics of the geodetically observed ultimate strain and B is obtained from fracture experiments of rock forming a local part of the crust, the probability of a local large-scale earthquake occurrence can be estimated.     

Probability of earthquake occurrence as obtained from a Weibull distribution analysis of crustal strain

Probability of a large-scale earthquake occurrence is estimated from crustal strain geodetically detected over an earthquake area. The Weibull distribution function, which is widely applied to quality-control research, is made use of in this paper in the probabilistic treatments of crustal strain.Using the table of ultimate strain presented by Rikitake (1974), a Weibull model representing a statistical distribution of crustal-rupture occurrence time is determined on the assumption that the crust is strained with a constant speed. In the case of the South Kanto District, the associated probability-density function has a maximum at about 84 years after the time when the strain energy accumulation starts.     

Global strain rates in western to central Himalayas and their implications in seismic hazard assessment

The Himalayas has experienced varying rates of earthquake occurrence in the past in its seismo-tectonically distinguished segments which may be attributed to different physical processes of accumulation of stress and its release, and due diligence is required for its inclusion for working out the seismic hazard. The present paper intends to revisit the various earthquake occurrence models applied to Himalayas and examines it in the light of recent damaging earthquakes in Himalayan belt. Due to discordant seismicity of Himalayas, three types of regions have been considered to estimate larger return period events. The regions selected are (1) the North-West Himalayan Fold and Thrust Belt which is seismically very active, (2) the Garhwal Himalaya which has never experienced large earthquake although sufficient stress exists and (3) the Nepal region which is very seismically active region due to unlocked rupture and frequently experienced large earthquake events. The seismicity parameters have been revisited using two earthquake recurrence models namely constant seismicity and constant moment release. For constant moment release model, the strain rates have been derived from global strain rate model and are converted into seismic moment of earthquake events considering the geometry of the finite source and the rates being consumed fully by the contemporary seismicity. Probability of earthquake occurrence with time has been estimated for each region using both models and compared assuming Poissonian distribution. The results show that seismicity for North-West region is observed to be relatively less when estimated using constant seismicity model which implies that either the occupied accumulated stress is not being unconfined in the form of earthquakes or the compiled earthquake catalogue is insufficient. Similar trend has been observed for seismic gap area but with lesser difference reported from both methods. However, for the Nepal region, the estimated seismicity by the two methods has been found to be relatively less when estimated using constant moment release model which implies that in the Nepal region, accumulated strain is releasing in the form of large earthquake occurrence event. The partial release in second event of May 2015 of similar size shows that the physical process is trying to release the energy with large earthquake event. If it would have been in other regions like that of seismic gap region, the fault may not have released the energy and may be inviting even bigger event in future. It is, therefore, necessary to look into the seismicity from strain rates also for its due interpretation in terms of predicting the seismic hazard in various segments of Himalayas.     

Time varying seismicity in Greece: Hurst's analysis and Monte Carlo simulation applied to a new earthquake catalogue for Greece

Hurst's rescaled range analysis is a useful tool in the examination of a time series and is designed to measure memory content and determine its fractal texture. This study applies the Hurst method to a new earthquake catalogue for Greece. The study also adopts Monte Carlo simulations to provide a statistical test underpinning the Hurst analyses. Together these reveal basic temporal fractal characteristics in the earthquake occurrence time-histories' memory. Three regions are considered, approximately: all of Greece and some surrounding areas, and the sub-zones of the Hellenic Arc and the Gulf of Corinth. Three temporal textures are considered: elapsed time between earthquakes, strain energy release, and earthquake frequency. The elapsed temporal textures for the zone whole Greece indicate distinct characteristics in chronological order and possess long memory. These belong to the class non-random pattern. However, these characteristics generally disappear when the sub-zones are considered and become random patterns. The Monte Carlo simulations support this. Therefore, memoryless statistical seismic hazard estimates may not be suitable for whole Greece but could be useful for the sub-zones. The strain energy release temporal textures for whole Greece and for the sub-zones, no matter that these seem to possess long memory at first analysis, are all random patterns. In other words, the Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that these patterns are much more likely to happen by chance. The seismic frequency textures for whole Greece and for the sub-zones suggest long memory, however, only the texture for the Hellenic Arc zone (M_S ≥ 5.0) and that for whole Greece (M_S ≥ 4.0) approach demonstrable non-random patterns. Except for these, other patterns happen by chance.     

Gravitational potential as a source of earthquake energy

Some degree of tectonic stress within the earth originates from gravity acting upon density structures. The work performed by this “gravitational tectonics stress” must have formerly existed as gravitational potential energy contained in the stress-causing density structure.According to the elastic rebound theory (Reid, 1910), the energy of earthquakes comes from an elastic strain field built up by fairly continuous elastic deformation in the period between events. For earthquakes resulting from gravitational tectonic stress, the elastic rebound theory requires the transfer of energy from the gravitational potential of the density structures into an elastic strain field prior to the event.An alternate theory involves partial gravitational collapse of the stress-causing density structures. The earthquake energy comes directly from a net decrease in gravitational potential energy. The gravitational potential energy released at the time of the earthquake is split between the energy released by the earthquake, including work done in the fault zone and an increase in stored elastic strain energy. The stress associated with this elastic strain field should oppose further fault slip.     

Seismic hazard map of Coimbatore using subsurface fault rupture

This study presents the future seismic hazard map of Coimbatore city, India, by considering rupture phenomenon. Seismotectonic map for Coimbatore has been generated using past earthquakes and seismic sources within 300 km radius around the city. The region experienced a largest earthquake of moment magnitude 6.3 in 1900. Available earthquakes are divided into two categories: one includes events having moment magnitude of 5.0 and above, i.e., damaging earthquakes in the region and the other includes the remaining, i.e., minor earthquakes. Subsurface rupture character of the region has been established by considering the damaging earthquakes and total length of seismic source. Magnitudes of each source are estimated by assuming the subsurface rupture length in terms of percentage of total length of sources and matched with reported earthquake. Estimated magnitudes match well with the reported earthquakes for a RLD of 5.2% of the total length of source. Zone of influence circles is also marked in the seismotectonic map by considering subsurface rupture length of fault associated with these earthquakes. As earthquakes relive strain energy that builds up on faults, it is assumed that all the earthquakes close to damaging earthquake have released the entire strain energy and it would take some time for the rebuilding of strain energy to cause a similar earthquake in the same location/fault. Area free from influence circles has potential for future earthquake, if there is seismogenic source and minor earthquake in the last 20 years. Based on this rupture phenomenon, eight probable locations have been identified and these locations might have the potential for the future earthquakes. Characteristic earthquake moment magnitude (M _w ) of 6.4 is estimated for the seismic study area considering seismic sources close to probable zones and 15% increased regional rupture character. The city is divided into several grid points at spacing of 0.01° and the peak ground acceleration (PGA) due to each probable earthquake is calculated at every grid point in city by using the regional attenuation model. The maximum of all these eight PGAs is taken for each grid point and the final PGA map is arrived. This map is compared to the PGA map developed based on the conventional deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) approach. The probable future rupture earthquakes gave less PGA than that of DSHA approach. The occurrence of any earthquake may be expected in near future in these eight zones, as these eight places have been experiencing minor earthquakes and are located in well-defined seismogenic sources.     

Aftershock sequences of two great Sumatran earthquakes of 2004 and 2005 and simulation of the minor tsunami generated on September 12, 2007 in the Indian Ocean and its effect

We present the seismic energy, strain energy, frequency–magnitude relation (b-value) and decay rate of aftershocks (p-value) for the aftershock sequences of the Andaman–Sumatra earthquakes of December 26, 2004 (M _w 9.3) and March 28, 2005 (M _w 8.7). The energy released in aftershocks of 2004 and 2005 earthquake was 0.135 and 0.365% of the energy of the respective mainshocks, while the strain release in aftershocks was 39 and 71% for the two earthquakes, respectively. The b-value and p-value indicate normal value of about 1. All these parameters are in normal range and indicate normal stress patterns and mechanical properties of the medium. Only the strain release in aftershocks was considerable. The fourth largest earthquake in this region since 2004 occurred in September 2007 off the southern coast of Island of Sumatra, generating a relatively minor tsunami as indicated by sea level gauges. The maximum wave amplitude as registered by the Padang, tide gauge, north of the earthquake epicenter was about 60 cm. TUNAMI-N2 model was used to investigate ability of the model to capture the minor tsunami and its effect on the eastern Indian Coast. A close comparison of the observed and simulated tsunami generation, propagation and wave height at tide gauge locations showed that the model was able to capture the minor tsunami phases. The directivity map shows that the maximum tsunami energy was in the southwest direction from the strike of the fault. Since the path of the tsunami for Indian coastlines is oblique, there were no impacts along the Indian coastlines except near the coast of epicentral region.     

The elliptic stress thermal field prior to <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>S</Subscript> 7.3 Yutian,and <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>S</Subscript> 8.0 Wenchuan earthquakes in China in 2008

Some thermal infrared anomalies on the earth’s surface are omens of stronger earthquakes, and have a close relationship with the stress fields. Satellite-based remote sensing is an important means of monitoring and researching this phenomenon. The M _S 7.3 Yutian earthquake in Xinjiang on March 20, 2008 and the M _S 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan on May 12, 2008 both happened in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, China, with epicenters more than 2,000 km apart. The two events, however, were a production of an identical stress field in different developing phases. Prior to the M _S 7.3 Yutian earthquake, a large-scale abnormal temperature rise not only covered the epicenter of the forthcoming Yutian earthquake, but also arrived at the epicenter of the farther Wenchuan earthquake. The revolving elliptic stress thermal field reflecting earthquake gestation moved from the west to the east of the Wenchuan epicenter at the time of the Yutian event occurrence. The rotation of the calefactive ellipses and belts prior to the two strong events agreed with the stress field, the focal mechanism, and modality and mechanism property of the ruptures in the crustal surface induced by the events. It should be a reflection of the partial mantle uprush and rotation.     

Evaluation of a seismic quiescence pattern in southeastern sicily

Southeastern Sicily experienced a very peculiar seismic activity in historic times, with a long series of ruinous earthquakes. A last large event, with magnitude probably in excess of 7.5, occurred on Jan., 11, 1693, totally destroying the city of Catania and killing 60,000 people. Only a few moderate events were reported since then, and a seismic gap issue has been proposed on this basis. A close scrutiny of the available data further shows that all significant seismic activity ceased after year 1850, suggesting one of the largest quiescence patterns ever encountered. This is examined together with the complex tectonic setting of the region, characterized by a wrenching mechanism with most significant seismicity located in its northern graben structure. An attempt to ascertain the imminence and the size of a future earthquake through commonly accepted empirical relations based on size and duration of the quiescence pattern did not provide any feasible result. A precision levelling survey which we recently completed yielded a relative subsidence of ~ 3 mm/yr, consistent with an aseismic slip on the northern graben structure at a rate of ~ 15 mm/yr. Comparing these results with sedimentological and tidal data suggests that the area is undergoing an accelerated deformation process; this issue is further supported by Rikitake's ultimate strain statistics. If the imminence of a damaging (M = 5.4) event is strongly favoured by Weibull statistics applied to the time series of occurrence of large events, the accumulated strain does not appear sufficient for a large earthquake (M 7.0). Within the limits of reliability of present semi-empirical approaches we conclude that the available evidence is consistent with the occurrence of a moderate-to-large (M 6.0) event in the near future. Several questions regarding the application of simple models to real (and complex) tectonic settings remain nevertheless unanswered.     

Earthquake source nucleation as self organization process

The theory of an earthquake source nucleation is discussed. Based on the assumption that self organization of damage process takes place in the zone of an earthquake source nucleation the theory incorporates the damage rheology framework of Lyakhovsky et al. and the approach of phenomenology theory of second-order phase transition. Namely, the free energy governing the process of an earthquake source nucleation depends on two collective variables α and φ in addition to the strain tensor ε_ij. The variable α quantifies the fracture of the medium and the variable φ quantifies the interaction effect of cracks. The region Ω_S is associated with a potential source of an earthquake if the damage variable α exceeds the critical value α_cr⁽¹⁾ inside Ω_S. The important feature of a potential source is that interaction of fractures causes acceleration of damage process inside the region of potential source and the material should lose stability primarily in this region. Interaction of fractures results also in occurrence of a residual stress caused by nonuniformity of fracture density. The appearance and development of the potential source result in increase of intensity of damage process not only in the region of potential source but also in a certain neighborhood of the last. It is compatible with such observed effects as acceleration of seismic energy release and growth of correlation length of weak seismicity before large earthquake. Transition of potential source to the stage of avalanche-unstable fracturing is associated with instability generated by explosive increase of interaction of fractures when the damage variable α exceeds the second critical value α_cr⁽²⁾ inside Ω_S.     

Influence of strong motion characteristics on permanent displacement of slopes

Landslides triggered by moderate to major earthquakes are a recognized seismic hazard. Arias Intensity (I _a) is a key intensity measure of the ground motion, but significant duration is widely used to define strong motion duration. We calculate Newmark’s displacements using earthquake records bracketing a broad range of Arias Intensity and significant duration employing Newmark’s rigid block method and a number of yield accelerations. Total landslide displacement increases with the increase in the energy content of the ground motion (I _a) above a threshold. Such threshold may be expressed as a function of yield acceleration of the slope regardless of the ground motion characteristics. Newmark displacement decreases with increasing duration for earthquakes with similar energy content. The wide scatter in the results converges when using formal dimensional analysis. Self-similar symmetry may facilitate the assessment of the performance of slopes during earthquakes. The mathematical framework for probabilistic determination of landslides displacement may be a useful aid to estimate the likelihood of landslide hazards provided that the geotechnical properties of the slopes are known.     

Intra-plate seismicity gap along the Median Tectonic Line and oblique plate convergence in southwest Japan

The intra-plate seismicity map for southwest Japan, based on fairly complete historical data for the past four hundred years, reveals an inverse correlation between the seismic activity along the island arc and the slip-rate along the Median Tectonic Line during the Late Quaternary. In the eastern part, the tectonic line is geologically inactive but regional historic seismicity has been high. The intra-plate seismic activity is probably related with the well developed mosaic-like conjugate system of strike-slip faults there. Conversely, the historic seismicity has been low in the western part, especially low in an area along the most geologically active segment of the Median Tectonic Line. Since no creep movement has been found there, energy greater than that of the Mino-Owari earthquake of 1891 (M = 8.0) seems to be stored in this seismicity gap. The difference in seismic released energy between the two regions for the last four hundred years would be balanced by the strain energy accumulated in the seismic gap. The fairly uniform strain release is conformable to the idea, proposed on the basis of the trend of maximum compression axes, that the Philippine Sea plate is dragging southwest Japan southwestward along the Nankai trough.     

Process Analysis of In-situ Strain during the Ms8.0 Wenchuan Earthquake—Data from the Stress Monitoring Station at Shandan

Abstract: There were huge life and property losses during the Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake on May 12, 2008. Strain fluctuation curves were completely recorded at stress observatory stations in the Qinghai-Tibet plateau and its surroundings in the process of the earthquake. This paper introduces the geological background of the Wenchuan earthquake and the profile of in-situ stress monitoring stations. In particular, data of 174 earthquakes (Ms4.0-Ms8.5) were processed and analyzed with various methods, which were recorded at the Shandan station from August 2007 to December 2008. The results were compared with other seismic data, and further analyses were done for the recoded strain seismic waves, co-seismic strain stepovers, pre-earthquake strain valleys, Earth’s free oscillations before and after the earthquake and their physical implications. During the Wenchuan earthquake, the strainmeter recorded a huge extensional strain of 70 seconds, which shows that the Wenchuan earthquake is a rupture process predominated by thrusting. Significant precursory strain anomalies were detected 48 hours, 30 hours, 8 hours and 37 minutes before the earthquake. The anomalies are very high and their forms are very similar to that of the main shock. Similar anomalies can also be found in strain curves of other shocks greater than Ms7.0, indicating that such anomalies are prevalent before a great earthquake. In this paper, it is shown that medium aftershocks (Ms5.5-6.0) can also cause Earth’s free oscillations. Study of free oscillations is of great significance to understand the internal structure of the Earth and focal mechanisms of earthquakes and to recognize slow shocks, thus providing a scientific basis for the prevention and treatment of geological disasters and the prediction of future earthquakes.     

Analysis of Time of Occurrence of Earthquakes: A Functional Data Approach

There is no single method available for estimating the seismic risk in a given area, and as a result most studies are based on some statistical model. If we denote by Z the random variable that measures the maximum magnitude of earthquakes per unit time, the seismic risk of a value m is the probability that this value will be exceeded in the next time units, that is, R(m)=P(Z>m). Several approximations can be made by adjusting different theoretical distributions to the function R, assuming different distributions for the magnitude of earthquakes. A related method used to treat this problem is to consider the difference between the times of occurrence of consecutive earthquakes, or inter-event times. The hazard function, or failure rate function, of this variable measures the instantaneous risk of occurrence of a new earthquake, supposing that the last earthquake happened at time 0. In this paper, we will consider the estimation of the variable that measures the inter-event time and apply nonparametric techniques; that is, we do not consider any theoretical distribution. Moreover, because the stochastic process associated with this variable can sometimes be non-stationary, we condition each time by the previous ones. We then work with a multidimensional estimation, and consider each multidimensional variable as a functional datum. Functional data analysis deals with data consisting of curves or multidimensional variables. Nonparametric estimation can be applied to functional data, to describe the behavior of seismic zones and their associated instantaneous risk. The applications of estimation techniques are shown by applying them to two different regions and data catalogues: California and southern Spain.     

Evaluation and implications of seismic events in Garhwal-Kumaun region of Himalaya

The Garhwal-Kumaun region continues to accumulate the built-up of strain energy like the other regions of the Himalaya. But this sector unlike the other sectors is yet to release this accumulated strain energy which can be in the form of great earthquake. The region has sufficient strain energy to generate earthquake of M>8. The analysis of seven hundred ten local events recorded by ten station broad band network between August’07 to February’10 shows that most of the seismic events recorded in this region continue to occur from shallow depths (< 25 km). The evaluation of source parameters from p-wave spectral analysis indicates that the events have low stress drop values. The region continues to release energy in the form of smaller magnitude earthquakes. The epicentral location map indicates that Munsiari Thrust, which is located south of the Main Central Thrust is more active.     

A neuro-genetic approach for prediction of time dependent deformational characteristic of rock and its sensitivity analysis

The creep strain is proportional to the logarithm of the time under load, and is proportional to the stress and the temperature. At higher temperatures the creep rate falls off less rapidly with time, and the creep strain is proportional to a fractional power of time, with exponent increasing as the temperature increases and reaching a value ∼1/3 at temperatures, of about 0.5 T _m. At these temperatures the creep increases with stress according to a power greater than unity and possibly exponentially increases with temperature as (−U/kT), where U is an activation energy and k is Boltzman’s constant. There are different methods to determine the creep strain and the energy of Jog (B) such as by experimental methods and multivariate regression analysis etc. These methods are cumbersome and time consuming. In conjunction with statistics and conventional mathematical methods, a hybrid method can be developed that may prove a step forward in modeling geotechnical problems. In the present investigation, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) technique and Co-active neuro-fuzzy inference system (CANFIS) backed Genetic algorithm technique have been used for the prediction of creep strain and energy of Jog (B), and a comparative study has made between the two models.     

Seismotectonics of the 26 November 2005 Jiujiang-Ruichang, Jiangxi, Ms?5.7 Earthquake

The 26 November 2005 Jiujiang-Ruichang, Jiangxi, Ms?5.7 earthquake occurred in a seismotectonic setting of moderate earthquake. The northwest-trending Xiangfan-Guangji fault (XFG) does not enter into the epicenter vicinity, but the northeast-trending Ruichang-Wuning fault (RWF) as a regional fault extends to the epicenter nearby, appearing as the Ruichang basin and its marginal faults. Tilting of the Ruichang Basin (RCB) in the Quaternary was controlled by the RCB southeast-marginal, buried fault (RSMBF). Shallow geophysical survey reveals that the RSMBF caused an offset of the reflection layers. Drill hole columnar section demonstrates that there are about 10–12?m displacement in the lower section of the middle-Pleistocene Series along the RSMBF, but no disruption is found in the upper section of the middle-Pleistocene Series. The RSMBF not only has activity in the Quaternary, but also coincides with the nodal plane I from the focal mechanism of the Jiujiang-Ruichang Ms?5.7 earthquake. This evidence, including aftershock distribution and isoseismic lines, strongly suggests that the RSMBF might be the seismogenic tectonics. The RWF is discontinuous at the surface, and consists of three en echelon Quaternary basins, which are the Ruichang, Fanzhen and Wuning basins. Three moderate earthquakes, the Fanzhen ML?4.9 earthquake, the Yejiapu ML?4.1 earthquake and the Jiujiang-Ruichang Ms?5.7 earthquake, have happened in the basins since 1995. The seismogenic tectonics of the Jiujiang-Ruichang Ms?5.7 earthquake is not isolated, but may be controlled by the RWF at depth, the slip of which causes the accumulation of energy for earthquake occurrence.     

Impacts of September 21, 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake on the characteristics of gully-type debris flows in central Taiwan

Debris flows are more frequent in central Taiwan, because of its mountainous geography. For example, many debris flows were induced by Typhoon Herb in 1996. The Chi-Chi earthquake with a magnitude of 7.3, which took place in 1999 in central Taiwan, induced many landslides in this region. Some landslides turned into debris flows when Typhoon Toraji struck Taiwan in 2001. This study investigates the characteristics of the gullies where debris flows have occurred for a comparison. Aerial photos of these regions dated in 1997 (before the earthquake) and 2001 (after the earthquake) are used to identify the occurrence of gully-type debris flows. A Geographic Information System (GIS) is applied to acquire hydrological and geomorphic characteristics: stream gradient, stream length, catchment gradient, catchment area, form factor, and geology unit of these gullies. These characteristics in different study regions are presented in a statistical approach. The study of how strong ground motion affects the debris flows occurrence is conducted. The characteristics of the debris flow gullies triggered by typhoons before and after the Chi-Chi earthquake are quantitatively compared. The analysis results show that a significant transformation in the characteristics was induced by the Chi-Chi earthquake. In general, the transformation points out a lower hydrological and geomorphic threshold to trigger debris flows after the Chi-Chi earthquake. The susceptibility of rock units to strong ground motion is also examined. The analysis of debris flow density and accumulated rainfall in regions of different ground motion also reveal that the rainfall threshold decreases after the Chi-Chi earthquake.     

悬臂抗滑桩加固边坡地震动力响应模型试验研究

为研究悬臂抗滑桩加固边坡的地震响应和抗滑桩桩身弯矩分布规律,利用北京工业大学结构实验室的大型振动台进行悬臂抗滑桩加固边坡模型的振动试验。在试验过程中,输入汶川地震重华镇波,记录边坡不同位置加速度的时程变化,并作对比分析,采集抗滑桩桩身的应变,用于分析桩身弯矩分布。结果表明,地震过程中边坡内部加速度自下而上逐渐放大,边坡顶部放大效果达到最大;悬臂抗滑桩的加固效应和桩间土体成拱作用使附近土体的动力响应受到限制;抗滑桩的嵌固端与悬臂部分分界面随着地震波的输入应变急剧增大,而悬臂部分随着高度增加应变减小,反映了悬臂抗滑桩弯矩的“凸”形分布规律。     

Seismic hazard evaluation for dams in northern Colorado, U.S.A.

A seismic hazard evaluation for three dams in the Rocky Mountains of northern Colorado is based on a study of the historical seismicity. To model earthquake occurrence as a random process utilizing a maximum likelihood method, the catalog must exhibit random space-time characteristics. This was achieved using a declustering procedure and correction for completeness of recording. On the basis of the resulting a- and b-values, probabilistic epicentral distances for a 2 × 10^–5 annual probability were calculated. For a random earthquake of magnitude M _L 6.0–6.5, this distance is 15 km. Suggested ground motion parameters were estimated using a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Critical peak horizontal accelerations at the dams are 0.22g if median values are assumed and 0.39g if variable attenuation and seismicity rates are taken into account. For structural analysis of the dams, synthetic acceleration time series were calculated to match the empirical response spectra. In addition, existing horizontal strong motion records from two Mammoth Lakes, California earthquakes were selected and scaled to fit the target horizontal acceleration response spectra.