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针对东海冲绳海槽地区的地震地质背景,对东海海域潜在的地震海啸进行了预研究. 假设了冲绳海槽在发生8.5级大地震,断层错距高达15 m的极端地震情况引发的海啸对中国东部沿海地区的影响. 初步数值模拟结果表明,该地震引发的海啸的最大初始波高为4.3 m,4小时左右传至浙江沿岸,近岸各处波高为1——2 m,其中局部地区波高为2.4 m;约7——8小时靠近上海海岸线(若震源在中冲绳海槽地区,海啸传到上海最快大约7小时),近岸波高约为1 m. 近岸区域地形变化复杂,海岛密布,局部地形条件可能会很大地影响实际各地点海啸波高,加上海啸在岸边爬高及港湾效应,估计波高还会升高. 给出了冲绳海槽南、中、北部发生潜在地震海啸的传播等时图. 笔者在东海设置了3个地震及海啸监测站,基于海啸模拟结果绘制了监测站处的海啸随时间演化曲线,分析了预研究成果对海啸预警可能发挥的作用. 相似文献
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采用球坐标系下非线性浅水波方程, 研究日本本州M9.0大地震引发的海啸对中国东南沿海的影响, 并计算了冲绳海槽构造带上3个不同段落可能发生潜在地震引发的海啸, 分析这些海啸与日本大海啸的浪高和走时关系. 结果表明, 日本地震海啸模拟结果与日本当地报道及中国东南沿海7个验潮站的报道结果相符. 冲绳海槽构造带中段可能发生的3次不同震级(M7.0, M7.5, M8.0)潜在地震引发的海啸到达中国东南沿海的时间比日本海啸提前约4个小时, 从震源区传播3个多小时即可到达华东沿海部分验潮站. 冲绳海槽M7.5潜在地震海啸在验潮站上计算的波高与日本海啸相当, 中冲绳海槽M8.0潜在地震海啸在大陈站的波高将超过0.9 m, 在坎门站波高将超过1.8 m. 北冲绳海槽的潜在地震海啸威胁主要集中在江苏盐城、 上海一带, 南冲绳海啸主要对台湾东北部和浙江沿海产生威胁. 本文对冲绳海槽构造带上潜在地震引发海啸的模拟结果, 可为中国东南沿海地区的防震减灾、 海啸预警提供有意义的参考. 相似文献
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海啸在冲绳海槽和东海浅水大陆架地形上产生和传播的数值模拟 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
运用数值模拟的方法对在冲绳海槽产生9.0级地震,并引发海啸的过程和海啸波在东海浅水大陆架地形上的传播过程进行研究.模拟的结果表明,数值模拟产生的波浪符合海啸波的特点,东海浅水大陆架适合海啸波的传播. 相似文献
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基于日本南海海槽地震活动性和历史海啸事件记载的分析,本文对日本南海海槽发生MW9.1罕遇地震情况下的海啸进行了数值模拟研究.结果表明:该地震可引发初始波幅约10 m的海啸,6个小时后传至浙江沿海,近岸各处波幅为1—2 m;8个小时后靠近上海海岸线,最大波幅约2 m,受地形影响局地爬高至近3 m;11个小时后抵达苏北黄海沿岸,预计波幅普遍在1 m左右.海啸的上岸高度与海岸附近的海深和海岸线的形态密切相关.我国近岸海域地形变化复杂,海湾众多,对海啸波有放大作用,该模拟结果可能比实际传播到近岸时偏小,因此综合评估日本海啸影响我国华东地区的规模m可达1—2级左右.一旦日本南海发生罕遇地震对我国的影响不容忽视,尤其遇上风暴潮与天文大潮叠加,则可能会造成一定程度的海啸灾害. 相似文献
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分析研究了南黄海和东海地区18口石油勘探钻井的井孔崩落特征,结合对琉球岛弧和冲绳海槽地区浅源地震震源机制解的分析,确认了南黄海地区与我国华北地区有类似的现代构造应力场特征;并得出东海地区的最大水平压应力方向为NEE-SWW,最小水平压应力方向为NNW-SSE,它们分别与冲绳海槽地区的最大和最小主压应力方向接近;东海地区地壳上层的水平差应力可能不强,这与该地区没什么地震活动的特点是一致的.根据应力场特征推断,我国东部地区并未受到菲律宾海板块俯冲的推挤作用,而是可能受到垂直于冲绳海槽走向的拉伸作用的影响. 相似文献
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分析了东海东南部地区5口3 000余米深、井径测井段千余米至两千米长的钻孔孔壁崩落特征,结合以前分析过的另外11口深钻孔的孔壁崩落特征,推断出东海地区的最大水平主压应力方向为NE-SW向,水平差应力不强.分析了冲绳海槽和琉球岛弧地区1977~1998年中心地震矩张量解的P,T轴方位分布.结果表明,冲绳海槽地区的P轴方向多为NE-SW向,与海槽延伸方向一致.海槽地区地震震源机制解的T轴方向为NE-SW向,与海槽延伸方向垂直.这些特征说明,菲律宾海板块对东海地区的水平作用并不是挤压,而是拉张.利用二维弹性有限元模拟法研究了东海地区现代应力场的成因.结果表明,东海地区应力场和台湾地区的强烈北西向挤压与琉球岛弧的弧后扩张有关.东海地区水平差应力不强可能是该地区强地震少的动力原因. 相似文献
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A Revised Evaluation of Tsunami Hazards along the Chinese Coast in View of the Tohoku-Oki Earthquake
Huimin Helen Jing Huai Zhang David A. Yuen Yaolin Shi 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2013,170(1-2):129-138
Japan’s 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake and the accompanying tsunami have reminded us of the potential tsunami hazards from the Manila and Ryukyu trenches to the South China and East China Seas. Statistics of historical seismic records from nearly the last 4 decades have shown that major earthquakes do not necessarily agree with the local Gutenberg-Richter relationship. The probability of a mega-earthquake may be higher than we have previously estimated. Furthermore, we noted that the percentages of tsunami-associated earthquakes are much higher in major events, and the earthquakes with magnitudes equal to or greater than 8.8 have all triggered tsunamis in the past approximately 100 years. We will emphasize the importance of a thorough study of possible tsunami scenarios for hazard mitigation. We focus on several hypothetical earthquake-induced tsunamis caused by M w 8.8 events along the Manila and Ryukyu trenches. We carried out numerical simulations based on shallow-water equations (SWE) to predict the tsunami dynamics in the South China and East China Seas. By analyzing the computed results we found that the height of the potential surge in China’s coastal area caused by earthquake-induced tsunamis may reach a couple of meters high. Our preliminary results show that tsunamis generated in the Manila and Ryukyu trenches could pose a significant threat to Chinese coastal cities such as Shanghai, Hong Kong and Macao. However, we did not find the highest tsunami wave at Taiwan, partially because it lies right on the extension of an assumed fault line. Furthermore, we put forward a multi-scale model with higher resolution, which enabled us to investigate the edge waves diffracted around Taiwan Island with a closer view. 相似文献
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V. K. Gusiakov 《Seismic Instruments》2011,47(3):203-214
Re-evaluation of magnitude-geographical criterion of tsunami prediction is one of the main directions of improvement of the
tsunami warning service acting on the coast of the Russian Far East. The main directions of this work are a careful analysis
of the tsunami warnings issued by the service during the period of its operation (since 1958), determining of reasons for
false alarms and missed warnings, delineation of tsunamigenic areas threatening the Far East coast of Russia, optimal selection
of magnitude thresholds for each tsunamigenic zone, evaluation of the expected ratio between real/missed/false warnings, determination
of the degree of influence of other source parameters (focus depth, source mechanism), and evaluation of probability of occurrence
for nonseismic tsunamis. The present paper considers the results of operations for prediction of tsunamis from submarine earthquakes
that occurred in the Kuril-Kamchatka zone, Sea of Japan, and Sea of Okhotsk during the last 52 years. 相似文献
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应用重力资源估算东海冲绳海槽地壳厚度 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:2
利用东海地区的重力资源,并参考在该地区进行的地震测深结果,应用线性公式估算了研究区的地壳厚度,分析了研究区地壳结构特征,根据与中国东部地球物理场、地壳结构的对比,指出东海大陆架地区应是中国大陆的自然延伸,对冲绳海槽的地壳性质进行了探讨,指出冲绳海槽应该为东海大陆架的自然终结。 相似文献
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Tsunami is one of the most devastating natural coastal disasters. Most of large tsunamis are generated by submarine earthquakes occurring in subduction zones. Tsunamis can also be triggered by volcano eruptions and large landslides. There are many records about "sea-overflow" in Chinese ancient books, which are not proved to be tsunamis. Tectonics and historical records analysis are import to forecast and prevention of tsunami. Consider the tectonic environment of the China sea, the possibility of huge damage caused by the offshore tsunami is very small. And the impact of the ocean tsunami on the Bohai sea, the Yellow sea, and the East China sea is also small. But in the South China Sea, the Manila subduction zone has been identified as a high hazardous tsunamigenic earthquake source region. No earthquake larger than MW7.6 has been recorded in the past 100a in this region, suggesting a high probability for larger earthquakes in the future. If a tsunamigenic earthquake were to occur in this region in the near future, a tragedy with the magnitude similar to the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami could repeat itself. In this paper, based on tectonics and historical records analysis, we have demonstrated that potential for a strong future earthquake along the Manila subduction zone is real. Using a numerical model, we have also shown that most countries in the South China Sea will be affected by the tsunamis generated by the future earthquake. For China, it implies that the maximum wave height over 4.0 meter on China mainland, especially the Pearl River Estuary. But the island, local relief maybe influence the maximum wave. But it takes nearly 3 hours to attack China mainland, if there is the operational tsunami warning system in place in this region, should be greatly reduced losses. And the simulated results are conformable to historical records. It indicates that the tsunami hazards from Manila trench to China mainland worthy of our attention and prevention. 相似文献
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Preliminary numerical simulation of potential earthquake-induced tsunami in East China Sea 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
In this paper,we present a numerical simulation of the propagation of a tsunami in the East China Sea,which might be induced by a hypothetical M8.5 earthquake in Okinawa Trough. Our results show that the initial maxi-mum wave height of tsunami could reach as high as 4.3 m for the hypothetical earthquake. It would take 3.5~4 hours for the tsunami to propagate to the coast of Zhejiang Province,and 7~8 hours to the near-shore of Shanghai. The peak tsunami height could be up to about 2 m in the coast of Zhejiang Province. Based on the numerical ex-periments,we plot the arrival time contours of tsunami in East China Sea and time history curves on the three ob-servational stations,and discussed the significance of the pre-analysis. 相似文献