热带气旋闪电活动特征研究综述

针对热带气旋（tropical cyclone,TC）闪电已有研究,首先从闪电活动分布特征、眼壁闪电爆发对TC强度和路径的指示、外雨带闪电活动与雨带对流结构的关系三个方面进行了总结;其次从动力一微物理方面对TC闪电的形成原因和特征机理进行了梳理;最后提出当前研究中存在的两个关键问题,并对后续研究内容进行了展望。基于地基和空基相结合的综合闪电探测得到的闪电属性特征参量,有望建立一个明确的、具有代表性的闪电活动一TC强度变化关系。利用沿海地区架设的三维闪电定位系统结合地基双偏振霄达,针对登陆台风强对流过程开展的综合观测研究,将有助于推进闪电观测资料在台风中小尺度强对流监测、预警和资料同化中的应用。     

西北太平洋环境风垂直切变和热带气旋移动对涡旋内对流非对称分布影响的特征分析

热带气旋（TC）预报特别是强度预报是当今大气科学研究和业务预报的重点、难点问题,TC环流内部的对流系统对气旋的结构和强度变化有着十分重要的影响。利用FY-2C/2E黑体亮温（TBB）资料和NCEP分析资料,研究了2005-2012年西北太平洋热带气旋外雨带区的对流非对称分布特征,及其与环境风垂直切变和TC移动的关系。分析发现,整层风垂直切变的方向与TBB一波非对称大值区关于方位角的分布有很好的对应关系。在弱整层风垂直切变条件下（<5 m/s）,TC移动引起的非对称摩擦效应会使对流易出现在移动方向的右前象限。在中强整层风垂直切变条件下（>5 m/s）,风切变成为影响对流非对称分布的主要因子,TC外螺旋雨带区的对流集中于顺风切方向及其左侧,对流偏离顺切变左侧的程度一方面受到TC内逆时针环流的影响,另一方面与风垂直切变的强度有关：对于发展阶段的TC,当风垂直切变增强时,一波非对称分布更加显著,切变越强,TC强度越大,外雨带区的对流越偏离顺风切左侧;对于消亡阶段的TC,风垂直切变的影响作用并不明显。     

内核及外围尺度与热带气旋强度关系的初步研究

基于日本气象厅（JMA）区域谱模式（RSM）20 km分辨率的再分析资料,计算并统计了2001—2007年西北太平洋热带气旋逐6小时（共2 174个样本）的内核及外围尺度特征,初步分析了内核及外围尺度分别与热带气旋强度变化的关系。结果表明,外围尺度的增大（减小）有利于热带气旋的增强（减弱）;内核区较大（最大风速半径大于120 km）时,内核区的收缩（放大）有利于热带气旋的增强（减弱）;对于较小（最大风速半径不足120 km）内核区的热带气旋,其内核区的收缩（放大）反而易使热带气旋减弱（增强）。      

热带气旋强度与结构研究新进展

主要回顾热带气旋(TC)强度与结构变化的研究发展近况。以往热带气旋的理论研究认为在给定的大气和海洋热状况下,存在着一个TC所能达到的最大可能强度(MPI)。但实际上,海洋生成的热带气旋达到的最大强度普遍要比由MPI理论计算得到最大强度要低。近几年的研究表明,存在着内部和外部的不利因子通过对TC结构的改变来阻碍其加强,从而限制TC的强度。以往认为在诸多因子中,垂直风切变产生的内核区非对称结构与眼墙区下方海水上涌造成的海面冷却是制约TC达到MPI的主要因子。最新的研究进一步指出,产生TC非对称性的中尺度过程对其强度与结构的变化至关重要。中尺度过程包含有对流耦合的涡旋Rossby波、内外圈螺旋雨带、嵌于TC环流内的中尺度涡旋。外部的环境气流也是通过这些眼墙的中尺度过程影响到TC的强度与结构变化。     

西北太平洋热带气旋快速加强过程中的水汽特征分析

利用NCEP的1°(纬度)×1°(经度)全球最终分析资料和JTWC(Joint Typhoon Warning Center)最佳路径资料,对2002~2011年西北太平洋热带气旋(TC)非减弱阶段快速加强(Rapid Intensification,RI)和缓慢加强及强度稳定(Non-RI)过程中,TC环境场及其内部各区域水汽分布和输送特征进行统计分析,揭示水汽因子对TC随后24 h强度变化的影响,为TC强度突变的趋势预报提供依据。结果表明:对流层低层900 h Pa层半径3~10纬距区域平均相对湿度(RH_3-10)能明显区分RI与Non-RI过程,说明西北太平洋TC强度变化对水汽的敏感高度较大西洋更接近洋面;RI初始时刻的RH_3-10显著大于Non-RI,而水平水汽通量(F_all)则弱于Non-RI,说明RI开始时刻TC环境表现为高水汽含量和较小的水汽输送,而随着RI过程TC内强对流发展对水汽的消耗,水汽含量明显减小故水汽通量则出现增强;RI和Non-RI过程水汽因子的分布和输送在TC内核区和外雨带差异明显,初始时刻RI过程净水汽获得区域大于Non-RI。相关性分析同样表明,适宜的相对湿度和水汽通量是非减弱阶段RI的有效潜势预报因子。     

热带气旋(TC)环流内对流核数、TBB特征与TC强度关系统的计合成分析

基于JTWC(the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)最大风速半径及热带气旋(TC)尺度资料、上海台风研究所台风最佳路径资料以及日本静止气象卫星M1TR红外IR1 TBB资料,针对2001—2010年期间经过台湾再次登陆大陆的13个TC个例,采用对流云-层云分类技术以及统计合成分析方法,探析TC环流内对流核数与TC强度之间可能存在的对应关系,结果表明:(1) 整个TC环流内对流核总数、外雨带内对流核总数及内核区域内对流核密度基本上都随着TC强度的增加(减弱)而增加(减少),同时,外雨带内对流核总数大于内核区域内对流核总数,且后者与TC强度之间的对应关系相对不明显,而内核区域内对流密度大于外雨带内对流核密度,且前者较后者与TC强度对应关系更为明显。(2) 外雨带内对流核总数、内核区域内对流核密度与TC强度之间的对应关系受TC结构影响很小,但对于TC登陆位置存在一定程度的敏感性。(3) TC内核区域内TBB平均值基本上随着TC强度的增加(减弱)而降低(升高),且这种对应关系对于TC登陆时间以及登陆位置存在一定程度的敏感性,同时,外雨带内TBB平均值与整个TC范围内TBB平均值接近,二者均明显高于同期内核区域内TBB平均值,且前二者与TC强度之间的对应关系相对不明显。(4) 基于对流核与基于TBB的统计合成分析结果两者之间具有很好的互补性,二者结合使用可以更全面反映出TC雨带与TC强度之间可能存在的对应关系。      

西北太平洋热带气旋的闪电活动、雷达反射率和冰散射信号特征分析

利用热带测雨卫星(TRMM)携带的测雨雷达(PR)、闪电成像仪(LIS)和微波辐射计(TMI)的同步探测资料,选取1998-2008年登陆中国的46个热带气旋,分析了其不同强度阶段的闪电活动、雷达反射率和冰散射信号的分布特征,以及闪电的发生与雷达反射率和冰散射信号之间的关系.结果发现:强度较弱的热带气旋平均闪电次数相对较高;当强度达到强热带风暴阶段后,强度越强,闪电数量反而越少.热带气旋强度不同,闪电的空间分布也有差别,热带风暴、强台风和超强台风阶段眼壁区闪电密度最大,而其他阶段则在外雨带区密度最大.热带气旋大部分区域被层云和弱对流降水控制,0℃层以上雷达反射率迅速减小,冰散射信号也普遍较弱.虽然热带气旋的眼壁区对流活动最强.但相比于外面带却较不易发生闪电.在同等大小的雷达反射率下,闪电更易发生在台风和强热带风暴阶段,超强台风阶段发生闪电阈值最高.由于闪电的发生与软雹、冰晶和过冷水等微物理参量以及上升气流速度紧密相关,因此闪电资料可以提供关于热带气旋不同区域的微物理过程和动力过程信息.     

西北太平洋热带气旋强度变化的统计特征

用中国气象局整编的1949-2003年共55年的《台风年鉴》和《热带气旋年鉴》资料,依据平均值与标准差的数学涵义,给出了TC突然增强、缓慢增强、强度稳定、缓慢减弱和突然减弱的标准,分析了西北太平洋热带气旋(TC)强度变化的年代际、年际、月际、日变化和区域分布的基本特征。结果表明:(1)1960年代以前,T℃的年平均增强或减弱幅度较小。(2)在TC出现较为频繁的夏秋季节,8月份TC强度变幅较小。TC在14时(北京时,下同)最易发展,20时最易减弱;08时TC增强速度最快,02时最慢;02时TC减弱速度最快, 20时最慢。(3)TC频数和增强TC频数的高值区位于海南岛以东的南海北部中国近海区域和菲律宾以东洋面,减弱类TC频数极值区在吕宋岛及其东部海域、海南岛以西的北部湾、广东沿岸。(4)TC突然增强不出现在30°N以北的中高纬地区和0—5°N的低纬地区。TC突然减弱多出现在125°E以西的中国近海大范围海域,在0～5°N的低纬地区基本不出现。     

热带气旋登陆前强度变化的统计特征分析

应用53 a(1949-2001年)西北太平洋热带气旋(TC)基本资料,分析登陆我国的TC登陆前强度变化的统计特征,包括TC登陆前48 h内强度变化特征、登陆前强度变化的年际、月际和日变化特征、登陆前强度变化与TC自身强度的关系以及TC登陆前的生命史特征等,还对登陆前迅速增强和减弱的TC分布特征进行了分析.主要结果有:...     

西北太平洋热带气旋尺度的气候特征研究

使用美国联合台风警报中心（Joint Typhoon Warning Center,简称JTWC）整编的2001-2006年的热带气旋（简称TC）资料,分析了TC尺度季节变化特征、区域分布情况,并讨论了TC尺度和强度的关系,初步探讨了西北太平洋热带气旋尺度的气候特征。研究结果表明：TC尺度有明显的季节变化特征,平均尺度在4月份最大,达到230．4km,2月份最小,为69．5km;TC尺度有明显的区域分布不均匀性,TC尺度出现最大值的区域位于28．6～29．5°N,131．1～133．0°E的海面上,而在123°E以东和12°N以南地区,TC尺度往往都在200km以下;对于不同强度的TC,其尺度与强度变幅有明显差异,热带风暴（TS）的24h尺度变幅最大,而台风（TY）的24h强度变幅最大;TC尺度和强度的相关性在不同路径下是有差异的,西北行、西行、北上型的TC尺度与强度呈显著的正相关,两者的相关系数达到了0．93以上,东北行和回旋型的TC尺度和强度的相关系数接近0．6,转向型TC的相关系数在0．85左右;此外,TC尺度和强度的相关性在其生命史的不同阶段也存在显著差异,在发展期,尺度和强度的相关性最好,其相关系数达到0．92,其他阶段相关性则减弱．     

Lightning Activity and Its Relationship with Typhoon Intensity and Vertical Wind Shear for Super Typhoon Haiyan(1330)

Super Typhoon Haiyan(1330), which occurred in 2013, is the most powerful typhoon during landfall in the meteorological record. In this study, the temporal and spatial distributions of lightning activity of Haiyan were analyzed by using the lightning data from the World Wide Lightning Location Network,typhoon intensity and position data from the China Meteorological Administration, and horizontal wind data from the ECMWF. Three distinct regions were identified in the spatial distribution of daily average lightning density, with the maxima in the inner core and the minima in the inner rainband. The lightning density in the intensifying stage of Haiyan was greater than that in its weakening stage. During the time when the typhoon intensity measured with maximum sustained wind speed was between 32.7 and 41.4 m s-1, the storm had the largest lightning density in the inner core, compared with other intensity stages.In contrast to earlier typhoon studies, the eyewall lightning burst out three times. The first two eyewall lightning outbreaks occurred during the period of rapid intensification and before the maximum intensity of the storm, suggesting that the eyewall lightning activity could be used to identify the change in tropical cyclone intensity. The flashes frequently occurred in the inner core, and in the outer rainbands with the black body temperature below 220 K. Combined with the ECMWF wind data, the influences of vertical wind shear(VWS) on the azimuthal distribution of flashes were also analyzed, showing that strong VWS produced downshear left asymmetry of lightning activity in the inner core and downshear right asymmetry in the rainbands.     

Lightning activity and its relationship with typhoon intensity and vertical wind shear for Super Typhoon Haiyan (1330)

Super Typhoon Haiyan (1330), which occurred in 2013, is the most powerful typhoon during landfall in the meteorological record. In this study, the temporal and spatial distributions of lightning activity of Haiyan were analyzed by using the lightning data from the World Wide Lightning Location Network, typhoon intensity and position data from the China Meteorological Administration, and horizontal wind data from the ECMWF. Three distinct regions were identified in the spatial distribution of daily average lightning density, with the maxima in the inner core and the minima in the inner rainband. The lightning density in the intensifying stage of Haiyan was greater than that in its weakening stage. During the time when the typhoon intensity measured with maximum sustained wind speed was between 32.7 and 41.4 ms^?1, the storm had the largest lightning density in the inner core, compared with other intensity stages. In contrast to earlier typhoon studies, the eyewall lightning burst out three times. The first two eyewall lightning outbreaks occurred during the period of rapid intensification and before the maximum intensity of the storm, suggesting that the eyewall lightning activity could be used to identify the change in tropical cyclone intensity. The flashes frequently occurred in the inner core, and in the outer rainbands with the black body temperature below 220 K. Combined with the ECMWF wind data, the influences of vertical wind shear (VWS) on the azimuthal distribution of flashes were also analyzed, showing that strong VWS produced downshear left asymmetry of lightning activity in the inner core and downshear right asymmetry in the rainbands.     

0709号超强台风圣帕(Sepat)的闪电活动特征

利用全球闪电定位网 (WWLLN) 获取的闪电定位资料和中国气象局 (CMA) 提供的台风定位资料, 分析了2007年第9号超强台风圣帕的闪电时空演变特征。分析结果表明: 在热带低压至强热带风暴时期, 台风中心闪电活动频繁, 外围闪电少; 台风成熟时期, 呈现明显的三圈结构; 减弱消散时期, 中心闪电骤减, 几乎为零, 外围闪电密度远远超过中心闪电密度。眼壁闪电和台风总闪电存在阶段性变化。在台风中心最大风速急剧增大的阶段, 眼壁上的闪电两次爆发, 而在第二次眼壁闪电爆发后的两个小时, 中心风速达到最大值, 表明闪电活动有可能对台风增强有指示意义。台风眼壁置换是台风强度发生变化的一个转折点, 也是台风闪电活动发生变化的一个转折点, 从台风眼壁置换开始, 眼壁上闪电数接近于零。闪电次数跟云顶亮温存在显著性相关。结合热带测雨计划任务卫星 (TRMM) 上装载的闪电成像仪 (LIS) 和微波辐射计 (TMI) 资料, 进一步对比分析了台风闪电与强对流区域的关系, 发现闪电易发生在修正极化亮温低于225 K的深对流系统中, 但并不是所有的深对流中都能探测到闪电的发生。WWLLN和LIS探测到闪电发生区域基本一致。     

STATISTICAL AND COMPOSITE ANALYSIS OF RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE NUMBER OF CONVECTIVE CORES AND THE CHARACTERISTICS OF TBB WITHIN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CIRCULATION AND ITS INTENSITY

Based on the data(including radius of maximum winds) from the JTWC(Joint Typhoon Warning Center),the tropical cyclones(TCs) radii of the outermost closed isobar, TCs best tracks from Shanghai Typhoon Institute and the Black Body Temperature(TBB) of the Japanese geostationary meteorological satellite M1 TR IR1, and combining13 tropical cyclones which landed in China again after visiting the island of Taiwan during the period from 2001 to2010, we analyzed the relationship between the number of convective cores within TC circulation and the intensity of TC with the method of convective-stratiform technique(CST) and statistical and composite analysis. The results are shown as follows:(1) The number of convective cores in the entire TC circulation is well corresponding with the outer spiral rainbands and the density of convective cores in the inner core area increases(decreases) generally with increasing(decreasing) TC intensity. At the same time, the number of convective cores within the outer spiral rainbands is more than that within the inner core and does not change much with the TC intensity. However, the density of convective cores within the outer spiral rainbands is lower than that within the inner core.(2) The relationship described above is sensitive to landing location to some extent but not sensitive to the structure of TC.(3) The average value of TBB in the inner core area increases(decreases) generally with increasing(decreasing) of TC intensity, which is also sensitive to landing situation to some extent. At the same time, the average value of TBB within the outer spiral rainbands is close to that within the entire TC circulation, and both of them are more than that within the inner core. However, they do not reflect TC intensity change significantly.(4) The results of statistical composite based on convective cores and TBB are complementary with each other, so a combination of both can reflect the relationship between TC rainbands and TC intensity much better.     

Lightning Activity and Precipitation Characteristics of Typhoon Molave （2009） Around Its Landfall

Cloud-to-ground （CG） lightning data,storm intensity and track data,and the data from a Doppler radar and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission （TRMM） satellite,are used to analyze the temporal and spatial characteristics of lightning activity in Typhoon Molave （0906） during different periods of its landfall （pre-landfall,landfall,and post-landfall）.Parameters retrieved from the radar and the satellite are used to compare precipitation structures of the inner and outer rainbands of the typhoon,and to investigate possible causes of the different lightning characteristics.The results indicate that lightning activity was stronger in the outer rainbands than in the eyewall and inner rainbands.Lightning mainly occurred to the left （rather than ＂right＂ as in previous studies of US cases） of the moving typhoon,indicating a significant spatial asymmetry.The maximum lightning frequency in the tropical cyclone （TC） eyewall region was ahead of that in the whole TC region,and the outbreaks of eyewall lightning might indicate deepening of the cyclone.Stronger lightning in the outer rainbands is found to be associated with stronger updraft,higher concentrations of rain droplets and large ice particles at elevated mixed-phase levels,and the higher and broader convective clouds in the outer rainbands.Due to the contribution of large cloud nuclei,lightning intensity in the outer rainbands has a strong positive correlation with radar reflectivity.The ratio of positive CG lightning in the outer rainbands reached its maximum 1 h prior to occurrence of the maximum typhoon intensity at 2000 Beijing Time （BT） 18 July 2009.During the pre-landfall period （0300 BT 18 July-0050 BT 19 July）,the typhoon gradually weakened,but strong lightning still appeared.After the typhoon made landfall at 0050 BT 19 July,CG lightning density rapidly decreased,but the ratio of positive lightning increased.Notably,after the landfall of the outer rainbands at 2325 BT 18 July （approximately 1.5 h prior to the landfall of the TC）,significantly higher ice particle density derived from the TRMM data was observed in the outer rainbands,which,together with strengthened convection resulted from the local surface roughness effect,might have caused the enhanced lightning in the outer rainbands around the landfall of Molave.     

Sensitivity of Quasi-Periodic Outer Rainband Activity of Tropical Cyclones to the Surface Entropy Flux

The influence of outer-core surface entropy fluxes （SEFs） on tropical cyclone （TC） outer rainband activity is investigated in this study with a fully compressible,nonhydrostatic model.A control simulation and two sensitivity experiments with the outer-core SEF artificially increased and decreased by 20% respectively were conducted to examine the quasi-periodic outer rainband behavior.Larger negative horizontal advection due to the greater radial wind and the positive contribution by asymmetric eddies leads to a longer period of outer-rainband activity in the SEF-enhanced experiment.The well-developed outer rainbands in the control and SEF-reduced simulations significantly limit the TC intensity,whereas such an intensity suppression influence is not pronounced in the SEF-enhanced experiment.As diabatic heating in outer rainbands strengthens the outer-core tangential wind,the quasi-periodic activity of outer rainbands contributes to the quasi-periodic variations of the inner-core size of the TCs.     

PRELIMINARY RESEARCH ON THE RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN THE INNER CORE SIZE AND OUTER SIZE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES AND THEIR INTENSITY

Based on the Regional Spectral Model (RSM) re-analysis data from Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) with a horizontal resolution of 20 km and a time interval of 6 h, this study works on the outer and inner core size of 2174 samples of tropical cyclones (TCs) occurring over the western North Pacific between 2001 and 2007. Some conclusions have been drawn on the basis of preliminary analysis of the TC inner core size and outer size and their relationship with TC intensity. First, the outer size increase (decrease) helps TCs intensify (weaken). Second, the enlargement (shrinking) of the inner core size helps TCs intensify (weaken) if TCs have a large inner core (with radius of maximum winds larger than 120 km). Contrarily, when TCs have small inner core (with radius of maximum winds smaller than 120 km), the enlargement (shrinking) of the inner core is good for weakening (intensifying) of TCs.     

热带气旋影响下深圳地区闪电特征研究

研究热带气旋影响下广东省深圳地区的闪电特征及规律。利用2012—2019年西北太平洋热带气旋历史数据,筛选出2012—2019年距离深圳市国家气象基本站1 000 km内的热带气旋,按热带气旋强度等级进行分组。并利用同时期深圳地区闪电、温度观测数据,研究不同等级热带气旋在不同距离、方位角情况下,深圳地区的闪电特征。发现热带气旋影响下深圳地区闪电年际差异很大,一年中7月和8月深圳地区闪电活动最活跃。热带气旋对深圳地区闪电活动影响大的距离大多为400 km以外,即深圳处于热带气旋的外围雨带。总体上在台风季,TD、TS、STS较易引发深圳地区的闪电,尤其是当TS位于福建地区,距离深圳400～600 km时,极易给深圳地区带来闪电影响。研究结果可为深圳地区的防台减灾工作提供科技参考。     

西北太平洋迅速加强热带气旋的统计特征和识别预报试验

利用2000—2014年热带气旋(TC)最佳路径、最终分析资料和静止卫星红外云顶亮温(TBB)资料,对比分析了西北太平洋(WNP),以及南海(SCS)的迅速加强(RI),与非迅速加强(non-RI)TC样本的环境背景和TBB统计特征,其中non-RI样本细分为不同的强度变化率即:缓慢加强(SI),强度稳定、缓慢减弱和迅速减弱等。结果表明,相对于SI,WNP海域的RI样本处于海表温度较高、海洋上层热容量较大、最大可能强度较大、高层辐散较强、风垂直切变(VWS)较弱和高层纬向风(U200)偏东分量较大等环境背景条件下;SCS海域的RI样本较易发生在VWS较弱的环境背景条件下。此外,相对于non-RI,支持RI发展的有利条件还包括中低层相对湿度较大、高层环境温度较低等。RI样本通常具备的TBB特征为TC内核的对流云覆盖率较大、TBB平均值相对较小。采用K最近邻分类算法进行RI预报试验,交叉检验结果表明,该方法对RI样本有一定的识别预报能力,RI样本概括率达到74.2%,技巧评分达到0.717。