Lake and catchment response to Holocene environmental change: spatial variability along a climate gradient in southwest Greenland

The Kangerlussuaq area of southwest Greenland is a lake-rich landscape that covers a climate gradient: a more maritime, cooler and wetter coastal zone contrasts with a dry, continental interior. Radiocarbon-dated sediment sequences (covering ~11,200?C8,300?cal?year) from paired lakes at the coast and the head of the fjord were analysed for lithostratigraphic variables (organic-matter content, bulk density, Ti, Ca). Minerogenic and carbon accumulation rates from the four lakes were compared to determine catchment and lake response to Holocene climatic variability. Catchment erosion at the coast was dominated by cryonival processes, with considerable sediment production due to the limited vegetation cover and exposed rock faces. Input of minerogenic sediment at one site (AT4) was high (>1?gDW?cm^?2?year^?1) during the period 5,800?C4,000?cal?year BP, perhaps reflecting intensification of cryogenic processes on northeast-facing slopes and rapid delivery to the lake. This period of erosional activity was not observed at the nearby, higher elevation site (AT1) due to the lower catchment relief; instead, there was an abrupt decline in carbon and minerogenic accumulation rates at ~5,800?cal?year BP. Sediment accumulation rates at the inland sites were much lower (<0.005?gDW?cm^?2?year^?1) reflecting greater catchment stability (more extensive vegetation cover), lower relief and substantially lower precipitation, but synchronous increases in mineral accumulation rates from ~1,200 to 1,000?cal?year BP may reflect wind erosion associated with regional cooling and local aridity. Carbon-accumulation-rate profiles were similar at the two inland sites, with higher-than-average accumulation (~6?C8?g?C?m^?2?year^?1) during the early Holocene and a subsequent decline after ~6,000?cal?year BP. At the inland lakes, both mineral and carbon accumulation rates exhibited a stronger link to climate, driven by trends in effective precipitation and regional aeolian activity. Catchment differences (relief, altitude) lead to more individualistic records in both erosion history and lake productivity at the coast.     

Permafrost response to climate change in the Northern Tien Shan

This paper presents the results of long-term studies on the response of mountain permafrost in the Northern Tien Shan to changes in climate. Significant warming has been observed in the region over the past 70 years. Records from the high-elevation weather stations Tuyuksu-1(3,450 m a.s.l.) and Mynzhylki(3,017 m a.s.l.) indicate a warming trend of 0.02 °C/a in the mean annual air temperature during this period. Permafrost temperatures have increased at a rate of about 0.01 °C/a over the 40-year observation period. The effects of local factors, including slope aspect, tectonic faulting, snow cover, and human activities, on the distribution of temperature and thickness of permafrost are discussed in the paper.     

On climate variability in Northeast of Brazil

The time-series (annual period and dry- and wet-season) of eight climatic variables were analysed to ascertain the existence of climate variability in Northeast of Brazil. Results indicated generally increasing trends in most of these variables (statistically significant at p<0.01 or <0.05) by Mann–Kendall test. However, relative humidity and rainfall presented decreasing behavior. The study showed that most of the stations studied are going through a process of environmental dryness. The results also suggest that the historical trends may be related to climate variability in Northeast of Brazil, which affects both semi-arid and coastal part of the region.     

Seasonal characters of regional vegetation activity in response to climate change in West China in recent 20 years

Using NDVI data of NOAA-AVHRR in recent 20 years and the temperature and precipitation data of West China, the vegetation activity is discussed by adopting the EOF and REOF decomposed functions. Results show that the overall increasing trend of vegetation activity in different seasons reflects an advanced and prolonged growth period of vegetation under the circumstance of climate warming, but the vegetation evolvement has much inconsistency between different regions and seasons. There are four notable regions, eight sub-areas for vegetation evolvement in spring and summer, and nine sub-areas in autumn. The vegetation activity in most sub-areas is increasing. The most notable region is represented by Lhaze station on the Tibetan Plateau. Two other marked stations are represented by Altay station in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region and Pengshui station in Sichuan Province. But the time series analysis of NDVI makes clear that the trends of the other two sub-areas, Turpan station in Xinjiang and Huashan station in Shaanxi Province, are descending. It is an important reason for vegetation evolvement that temperature ascends in most of the regions and descends in the east region in some seasons. But another important reason for vegetation evolvement is that precipitation is ascending in the west and descending in the east of the region.     

中国西部近20a区域植被活动的季节特征及其对气候变化的响应

1 Introduction As a body of ecosystem, vegetation influences energy balance, climatic, hydrologic and biochemical cycles. Simultaneously it is also influenced by the above-mentioned factors. Therefore, vegetation activity is a perfect sensitivity guidelin…     

River response to variations of periglacial climate in mid-latitude Europe

The Last Glaciation was characterised by considerable changes in climate. Many European river basins reacted to these changes by initial incision and subsequent pattern change. Earlier research explained this by the time lag of vegetation development after a climatic change, which considerably affected the sediment load. However, since some river basins react differently, or do not react at all, this model needs to be refined. This paper deals with the fluvial evolution of several rivers in northern and central Europe during the Last Glaciation, and two of them, the Weiße Elster river in the Leipzig area and the Spree river in the Niederlausitz (Germany), are discussed in more detail. The vegetation cover on the floodplain, in combination with the presence of frozen ground, which affects the discharge characteristics, largely determines the river type. Nevertheless, when the sequences are compared, not only synchronous changes in fluvial development may be observed, but also distinct differences in fluvial development. By analysing the different rivers in their varying geomorphological settings, it appears that grain size, basin configuration and catchment size are important parameters also, which can determine whether a threshold is exceeded or not.     

长江上游全新世特大洪水对西南 季风变化的响应

利用24次全新世特大洪水序列与川渝地区近两千年的洪灾史料,对长江上游特大洪水事件和气候变化的响应机制进行了分析。从长江上游特大洪水序列与阿拉伯海记录的西南季风气候变化对比分析来看,特大洪水事件与西南季风变化具有很好的响应关系,特大洪水事件多发生于西南季风较弱的阶段,这些阶段以西南季风气候快速变化为特征,是气候剧烈波动期或气候的转型期。与北大西洋、贵州董歌洞石笋所记录的气候变化比较,特大洪水有的与全新世气候突变一致,有的则不一致,可能特大洪水事件更多表现为地方事件。与文献记载的历史洪灾事件相比,长江上游低频高量级的特大洪水事件对西南季风的变化具有更好的响应关系,而高频低量级的洪灾事件具有更高的随机性,由于历史文献记载的洪水量级差异较大,如果将他们笼统地放在一起分析,可能会掩盖洪水事件对气候变化响应机制。     

Evidence of urban-induced precipitation variability in arid climate regimes

The study employs a 108-year precipitation historical data record, global climate observing network observations and satellite data to identify possible anomalies in rainfall in and around two major arid urban areas, Phoenix, Arizona and Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. The analysis reveals that during the monsoon season, locations in northeastern suburbs and exurbs of the Phoenix metropolitan area have experienced statistically significant increases in mean precipitation of 12–14% from a pre-urban (1895–1949) to post-urban (1950–2003) period. Further analysis of satellite-based rainfall rates suggests the existence of the anomaly region (AR) over a 7-year period. The anomaly cannot simply be attributed to maximum topographic relief and is hypothesized to be related to urban-topographic interactions and possibly irrigation moisture. Temperature records suggest that Riyadh has experienced an adjustment in mean temperature in response to the growth of urban surfaces (e.g. the so-called urban heat island effect). While ground-based precipitation records also indicate an upward trend in mean and total precipitation in and around Riyadh in the last 10–15 years, it is difficult to attribute the increase to urbanization because other less urbanized stations in Saudi Arabia also show a similar increase. Recent satellite-based precipitation estimates indicate an AR 50–100 km north of Riyadh, but this study is not robust enough to conclusively link it to urbanization although certain climate-regime attributes suggests that it might be.     

Grassland productivity in an alpine environment in response to climate change

Situated in a climatically stressful environment, alpine grassland is sensitive to subtle climate changes in its productivity. We remedy the current deficiency in studying grassland productivity by taking the integrated effect of all relevant factors into consideration. The relative importance of temperature, rainfall and evaporation to the alpine grassland productivity in western China was determined through analysis of their relationship with the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) between 1981 and 2000. Climate warming stimulated grassland productivity in the 1980s, but hampered it in the 1990s. Temperature is more important than rainfall to grassland productivity early in the growing season. However, their relative importance is reversed late in the growing season. Monthly summer month rainfall modified by maximum monthly temperature is a good predictor of alpine grassland productivity at 62.0 per cent. However, the best predictor is water deficiency, which is able to improve the estimation accuracy to 78.3 per cent. Hence, the impact of temperature on grassland productivity is better studied indirectly through evaporation.     

Regional climate gradients in precipitation and temperature in response to climate teleconnections in the Greater Everglades ecosystem of South Florida

Precipitation and temperature in Florida responds to climate teleconnections from both the Pacific and Atlantic regions. In this region south of Lake Okeechobee, encompassing NWS Climate Divisions 5, 6, and 7, modern movement of surface waters are managed by the South Florida Water Management District and the US Army Corps of Engineers for flood control, water supply, and Everglades restoration within the constraints of the climatic variability of precipitation and evaporation. Despite relatively narrow, low-relief, but multi-purposed land separating the Atlantic Ocean from the Gulf of Mexico, South Florida has patterns of precipitation and temperature that vary substantially on spatial scales of 10¹–10² km. Here we explore statistically significant linkages to precipitation and temperature that vary seasonally and over small spatial scales with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Over the period from 1952 to 2005, ENSO teleconnections exhibited the strongest influence on seasonal precipitation. The Multivariate ENSO Index was positively correlated with winter (dry season) precipitation and explained up to 34 % of dry season precipitation variability along the southwest Florida coast. The AMO was the most influential of these teleconnections during the summer (wet season), with significant positive correlations to South Florida precipitation. These relationships with modern climate parameters have implications for paleoclimatological and paleoecological reconstructions, and future climate predictions from the Greater Everglades system.     

能源消费CO_2排放研究综述

气候变化已成为当前国际社会所关注的热点问题,而CO2排放是影响全球变暖的主要因素。本文基于多学科视角,综合运用文献资料法、对比分析法,梳理了CO2排放的估算方法、排放强度、排放绩效、排放影响因素和未来排放模拟方法的研究进展,分析了存在的主要问题,并展望了下一步的研究重点与方向。结果表明,CO2排放研究发展迅速并且成果丰富,CO2排放是不同因素众多变量之间相互作用、相互依赖的一个综合复杂的系统工程;多学科融合框架下地理与空间因素重视不足,研究尺度以全球化、国际化为主,多尺度研究逐步凸显并开始关注尺度效应,但省级、城市尺度的面板研究仍匮乏;面板数据逐步受到关注,动态分析对比评价仍待完善。未来研究在变量选取上应更加全面细化,尝试多尺度综合分析,逐步凸显城市碳排放研究,需更加关注理论结合本地化实践,运用系统的思维和方法掌握差异化趋势研究。     

应对气候变化的城市规划实施效应评估研究

伴随气候变化与快速城市化,超大城市与城市群高温、暴雨、雾霾极端灾害事件频繁,生态环境问题愈加突出。应对气候变化的城市规划是缓解与适应极端事件的重要手段,它通过优化土地利用、空间结构、道路交通和生态绿化,减缓气候变化与极端事件影响。论文总结了城市规划实施对气候与环境的影响机制,及其实施效应的评估方法,由此将应对气候变化的城市规划问题归结为极端事件指标、经济可行性、区域适用性等多被控变量、多目标、多约束最优化问题的求解。为此亟需基于气候环境与社会经济的协同作用,开展超大城市和城市群的气候变化影响和适应研究,改进应对气候变化城市规划实施效应的评估手段,构建包含城市规划实施效应的区域气候模式系统和多尺度综合评估体系,以实现气候环境最优及社会经济代价最小的绿色智慧韧性发展策略。     

Vegetation greenness modeling in response to climate change for Northeast Thailand

In Northeast Thailand, the climate change has resulted in erratic rainfall and tem- perature patterns. The region has experienced both periods of drought and seasonal floods with the increasing severity. This study investigated the seasonal variation of vegetation greenness based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index （NDVI） in major land cover types in the region. An assessment of the relationship between climate patterns and vegeta- tion conditions observed from NDVI was made. NDVI data were collected from year 2001 to 2009 using multi-temporal Terra MODIS Vegetation Indices Product （MOD13Q1）. NDVI pro- files were developed to measure vegetation dynamics and variation according to land cover types. Meteorological information, i.e. rainfall and temperature, for a 30 year time span from 1980 to 2009 was analyzed for their patterns. Furthermore, the data taken from the period of 2001-2009, were digitally encoded into GIS database and the spatial patterns of monthly rainfall and temperature maps were generated based on kriging technique. The results showed a decreasing trend in NDVI values for both deciduous and evergreen forests. The highest productivity and biomass were observed in dry evergreen forests and the lowest in paddy fields. Temperature was found to be increasing slightly from 1980 to 2009 while no significant trends in rainfall amounts were observed. In dry evergreen forest, NDVI was not correlated with rainfall but was significant negatively correlated with temperature. These re- sults indicated that the overall productivity in dry evergreen forest was affected by increasing temperatures. A vegetation greenness model was developed from correlations between NDVI and meteorological data using linear regression. The model could be used to observe the change in vegetation greenness and dynamics affected by temperature and rainfall.     

气候变率影响下博茨瓦纳河流流量的时空变化

The fourth assessment report of the IPCC highlights that the global average surface temperature is projected to increase by 1.8 to 4.0℃ by the year 2100 compared to current climate. Given that climate is the most important driver of the hydrological cycle, the rise in temperature could cause changes in occurrence patterns of extreme hydrologic events like streamflow droughts. An increase in frequency and severity of these events could pose seri-ous challenges for sustainable management of water resources particular in arid regions. However, the understanding of water resources dynamics and the possible impacts of climate change on these dynamics is hindered by uncertainties in climate change models and com-plex hydrological responses of streams and catchments to climatic changes. Therefore ob-servational evidence of streamflow dynamics at the local scale could play a crucial role in addressing these uncertainties and achieving a fuller reconciliation between model-based scenarios and ground truth. This paper determines spatial and temporal changes in stream-flow volumes and their association with climatic factors based on the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and ANOVA to determine possible changes in streamflow over the years and their relation to climatic factors. Streamflow is generally stochastic highlighting the im-portance of factoring in temporal flow variability in water resources planning. There is no clear evidence that changes in climatic variables are related to streamflow behaviour.     

Radiation climate variability in Svalbard: surface and satellite observations

This paper performs a climatological investigation of the surface radiation budget (SRB) in Svalbard, on the basis of the Norwegian Polar Institute's radiation measurements from Ny-Ålesund (1981-1997) and the NASA/Langley Surface Radiation Budget Dataset (1983-1991). The radiation climate is related to meteorological conditions and surface properties, and compared to surface radiation fluxes measured from space. The natural variability of the short-wave and long-wave radiation fluxes in Ny-Ålesund is generally governed by the large annual variation in the incoming light with polar night and polar day conditions, the large changes of surface albedo - especially during spring - and the atmospheric circulation with frequent cyclone passages during winter with alternating periods of warm, humid maritime air from the south and cold, dry Arctic air from the north.
Comparison with the satellite derived surface radiation fluxes shows that NyÅlesund is to a large extent influenced by the "ocean" climate to the west of Svalbard during the summer and autumn, but has a more "continental" radiation climate representative of the more central parts of the island during winter and spring. Ny-Ålesund is located in a fiord on the north-west coast of Svalbard, where the ocean cloud cover and the Arctic sea fog play an important role during the summer. During the winter and spring, however, the fiords are frozen and the drift ice covers a large extent of the surrounding ocean.     

三江源区径流演变及其对气候变化的响应(英文)

Runoff at the three time scales(non-flooding season,flooding season and annual period) was simulated and tested from 1958 to 2005 at Tangnaihai(Yellow River Source Region:YeSR),Zhimenda(Yangtze River Source Region:YaSR) and Changdu(Lancang River Source Region:LcSR) by hydrological modeling,trend detection and comparative analysis.Also,future runoff variations from 2010 to 2039 at the three outlets were analyzed in A1B and B1 scenarios of CSIRO and NCAR climate model and the impact of climate change was tested.The results showed that the annual and non-flooding season runoff decreased significantly in YeSR,which decreased the water discharge to the midstream and downstream of the Yellow River,and intensified the water shortage in the Yellow River Basin,but the other two regions were not statistically significant in the last 48 years.Compared with the runoff in baseline(1990s),the runoff in YeSR would decrease in the following 30 years(2010-2039),especially in the non-flooding season.Thus the water shortage in the midstream and downstream of the Yellow River Basin would be serious continuously.The runoff in YaSR would increase,especially in the flooding season,thus the flood control situation would be severe.The runoff in LcSR would also be greater than the current runoff,and the annual and flooding season runoff would not change significantly,while the runoff variation in the non-flooding season is uncertain.It would increase significantly in the B1 scenario of CSIRO model but decrease significantly in B1 scenario of NCAR model.Furthermore,the most sensitive region to climate change is YaSR,followed by YeSR and LcSR.     

伏牛山地森林植被物候及其对气候变化的响应

研究植被物候是理解植被与气候关系的重要途径。在植被对气候变化响应的敏感地区,开展植被物候研究有助于揭示气候变化对植被的影响机制。基于2000-2015年MODIS EVI时间序列影像数据,利用Savitzky-Golay （S-G）滤波方法和动态阈值法提取伏牛山地2000-2015年森林植被物候参数,结合气温、降水数据,运用Man-Kendall趋势检验、Sen斜率、ANUSPLIN插值和相关性分析等方法,研究伏牛山地森林植被物候对气候要素（气温、降水）变化的响应。结果表明：① 伏牛山地森林植被生长季始期主要集中在第105~120 d,生长季末期主要集中在第285~315 d,生长季长度主要集中在165~195 d。从海拔梯度看,随海拔升高,生长季始期、末期和长度整体上分别呈显著推迟、提前及缩短趋势。② 生长季始期和生长季末期整体上呈推迟趋势,推迟的像元分别占森林植被的76.57%和83.81%。生长季长度整体呈延长趋势,延长的像元占比为61.21%。生长季始期变化特征主要是由该地区的春季气温降低所导致的。③ 研究区森林植被生长季始期与3月平均气温呈显著偏相关,且呈负相关的区域最多,即3月平均气温降低,导致生长季始期推迟;生长季末期与9月降水呈显著偏相关区域最多,且两者主要呈正相关,即9月降水增加,使生长季末期推迟。植被生长季长度由整个生长期的气温和降水来共同作用,对大多数的区域而言,8月的平均气温和降水与生长季长度的关系最为密切。     

极地冰川底部微生物多样性及对气候变化响应的研究概况及其前景

极地冰盖/冰川底部微生物的生命形态特征及其适应机制研究是当前最前沿的方向之一。越来越多的研究表明: 极地冰盖/冰川底部存在液态水和有机质, 可以为微生物生存提供生境。此外, 微生物参与冰盖/冰川底部地球化学风化过程, 对受气候变化驱使的环境变化尤为敏感。围绕着极地冰川底部微生物多样性及其对气候变化响应的研究主题, 重点介绍极地冰川底部微生物的生命形态特征、可能来源、所参与的地球化学反应机制以及与C、N循环的相互作用。旨在为未来关于冰川底部的研究提供参考。     

Spatiotemporal analysis of climate variability impacts on malaria prevalence in Ghana

There are conflicting results from research on the impacts of temperature and rainfall on malaria prevalence. As a result predicting malaria prevalence still remains a challenge. Generating relevant information on the role of temperature, rainfall, and humidity on malaria prevalence at different geographic scales is critical to efforts to combat the burden of prevalence. For better understanding of climate variability and the impacts on malaria prevalence, this study examined the varying spatial and seasonal distribution in malaria prevalence over time in Ghana. We used trajectory and time series analyses for temporal distribution and conducted GIS-based analyses of the spatial distribution of yearly malaria incidence and climate variables. We observed that the national annual malaria incidence has increased. Considerable inter-annual variations were also detected in the intensity of incidence across regions characterized with varying rainfall and temperature regimes. The results indicated that temperature and humidity have some association with malaria prevalence in Ghana. Although annual rainfall in the model was found to be less significant, there is evidence of rainfall as a predictor of malaria in Ghana. These findings show that public health resource allocations should focus on the areas with the highest malaria risk in Ghana.     

中国作物物候对气候变化的响应与适应研究进展

以气候变暖为主要特征的气候变化对作物物候产生了重要的影响,通常气温升高会导致作物生长速度加快,生育期缩短,从而造成作物产量下降,不利于农业发展。同时,作物物候变化可以直接或间接反映气候变化情况,对于气候变化具有重要的指示意义。作物物候的研究对于农业气象灾害的预防、农业生产管理水平的进步以及农业产量提高都极为关键。随着全球地表气温的持续升高,作物物候相关研究也越来越引起科学家的关注。论文结合作物物候的主要研究方法,综述了中国近几十年来小麦、玉米、水稻以及棉花、大豆等主要农作物的生育期变化特征以及主要的驱动因子,得到以下主要结论：①在研究方法上,统计分析方法应用最为普遍,其他几种方法都需要与统计分析方法相结合使用。另外,作物机理模型模拟方法易于操作、可行性强,在物候研究中应用也比较多。遥感反演方法对作物生育期的特征规律要求较高,一般主要关注作物返青期。②整体上,小麦全生育期主要呈缩短趋势,而玉米和水稻全生育期以延长趋势为主。③作物物候变化的驱动因子主要是气候变化和农业管理措施改变,其中,气候变化是主导驱动因子,对作物物候变化起决定作用,而调整农业管理措施,在一定程度上抵消气候变化对作物生育期的不利影响。作物物候对气候变化的响应和适应研究可以为农业生产适应气候变化提供重要的理论依据和对策。