罗源湾海域台风风暴潮数值模拟研究

本文以福建罗源湾海域为重点研究区域,结合台风风暴潮数值模式,对不同强度、不同方向台风引起的风暴潮增（减） 水规律进行了数值模拟研究。通过对影响罗源湾海域的历史台风分析,确定了影响该区域的两种典型台风路径,即东南-西北移动 （NW-SE） 和南-北移动 （N-S） 路径。文中结果表明：在两种典型路径台风到达罗源湾海域时,罗源湾内的风暴增水达到极值,在超强台风 （中心气压及最大风速：945 hPa,55 km/h） 作用下,NW-SE 和 N-S 路径下增水极值分别为3.9 m 和 3.67 m。随着两种典型台风路径从湾外向湾内平移,湾内不同岸段的风暴增水表现出不同的规律：北岸和西岸增水逐渐增大且在典型台风路径过湾顶向西平移约 15 km 处达到最大;湾内南岸区域增水逐渐减小且在台风路径过湾口向湾外平移约 15 km 处达到最大;湾口站点增水极值随路径平移无明显变化。对于 N-S 典型路径方向,台风中心过罗源湾后有明显减水现象,且越靠近湾内的站点减水程度越大,超强台风作用下湾内西北角站点减水达 2.80m,而 NW-SE 路径的台风风暴减水现象不明显。     

青岛沿海风暴潮分析

利用“青岛海军验潮站”(青岛大港1号码头)1949~2003年潮汐资料,采用统计风暴高潮位≥510cm出现频数的方法,对青岛沿海风暴潮进行统计分析。结果表明:诱发青岛沿海显著风暴高潮位的天气系统都是台风,集中出现在8月下旬~9月上旬,阴历初三至初五、十五至十八两个天文大潮时段。     

北海市沿岸风暴潮预报方法研究

根据1965-2008年共77个热带气旋影响的北海站过程最大增水资料,采用两种方法进行后报结果研究,结果表明:经验预报方法的计算值与左路台风的实测值拟合较好,但是,当实测值≤70 cm时,其计算值大于左路台风的实测值,当实测值＞70 cm时,其计算值小于左路台风的实测值;数值预报方法的计算值与左路台风的实测值拟合较好,但是,无论左路台风(实测值＞ 70 em)或中路台风,数值预报方法的计算值都小于实测值,而其它两路台风没有呈现规律性变化;两种预报方法结果检验,得出无论右路台风、中路台风、左路台风(实测值≤70 cm)或左路台风(实测值＞70cm)的风暴过程最大增水预报,经验预报方法计算结果均较好,尤其是对左路台风(实测值≤70 cm)的风暴潮预报.     

天津沿海1105号台风风暴潮过程分析

1105号强热带风暴"米雷"于6月26日21时10分在山东省荣成市沿海登陆。"米雷"给天津沿海造成了一次较强的台风风暴潮过程,此次增水过程并不是由偏东大风引起,而是由强热带风暴的路径及登陆时间起决定性因素。通过对此次过程的总结分析,目的在于总结此类过程的预报经验,提高预报准确度。     

一次强台风引发的沧州沿海风暴潮过程及成因分析

文章利用沧州海洋站观测资料对本次台风风暴潮过程进行分析,发现天文高潮时沧州沿海出现了远超警戒潮位的高潮位,而后"达维"中心带来的东北大风使沧州沿海风暴增水值达到最大。对建国以来6次北上影响沧州的致灾台风进行了路径相似分析,获取影响台风风暴潮强度的重要因素,可为研究本地区台风风暴潮规律,提高预警报准确度,减少风暴潮灾害带来的损失提供经验和参考。     

Results from a detailed aeromagnetic survey across the northeast Newfoundland margin,Part I: Spreading anomalies and relationship between magnetic anomalies and the ocean-continent boundary

A detailed aeromagnetic survey carried out across the northeast Newfoundland margin clearly shows the presence of sea floor spreading anomalies 25 to 34. Correlation of these anomalies with synthetic profiles shows an increase in the rate of spreading soon after anomaly 27 time. Three fracture zones can be identified by dislocations in the magnetic anomalies; their positions are confirmed on the depth to basement map of this region. An eastward extension of the southernmost fracture zone at latitude 49 N matches well with the Faraday Fracture Zone across the Mid Atlantic Ridge, and with a basement ridge known as Pastouret Ridge mapped off Goban Spur. By combining the present survey data with the previously collected shipborne measurements, we have also traced the westward continuation of the Charlie-Gibbs Fracture Zone under the Newfoundland shelf.A large amplitude magnetic anomaly lies along the margin and separates two zones with different magnetic characteristics: long wavelength small amplitude anomalies on the landward side, and quasi lineated anomalies on the seaward side. Seismic data compilations show that this large anomaly coincides with the ocean-continent boundary at most places north of Flemish Cap. Modelling of the magnetic anomalies indicate that the large amplitude anomaly is caused by the juxtaposition of highly magnetized oceanic crust against weakly magnetized continental crust; this situation is similar to that observed across the Goban Spur margin, which is a conjugate of the Flemish Cap margin. The presence of highly magnetized oceanic crust landward of anomaly 34 and within the Cretaceous Magnetic Quiet Zone is attested to by the presence of similar large amplitude anomalies south of the Flemish Cap and Goban Spur regions, but these do not mark the ocean-continent transition.     

考虑溢流条件下的核电厂址风暴潮模拟与研究

基于ADCIRC建立了三门湾风暴潮模型,模型模拟结果与实测数据吻合较好。以可能最大热带气旋参数为基础构建了多种假想台风路径来计算三门核电厂址处的可能最大风暴潮增水。结果表明,NW向登陆且距离核电厂址左侧为R(最大风速半径)时的假想台风使得三门核电厂址处的增水达到最大,风暴潮增水最大值为4.58 m。将可能最大风暴潮增水叠加天文高潮位进行计算,厂址前沿处水位达到了7.75 m,而三门湾顶附近的最高水位已经达到9 m,超出了三门湾沿岸海堤高程。将三门湾沿岸陆地依照高程概化为计算区域进行漫堤计算,当天文高潮位叠加可能最大风暴潮水位时,三门湾沿岸会发生漫堤溢流现象,淹没范围最严重的区域出现在湾顶处,最大淹没面积达到了120 km2。此时厂址前沿最高潮位为7.25 m,与不溢流相比下降了0.50 m。本研究可为三门核电厂址的安全防护提供科学依据。     

On the possible generation of low-frequency microseisms by internal waves in the ocean

The conditions under which the interaction between internal waves and the rough bottom topography may be the reason for synchronous fluctuations of pressure at the bottom have been studied. Disturbances of the depth are assumed to be small compared with the mean depth of the ocean, and the Väisälä-Brunt frequency is constant. It is shown that synchronous fluctuations of pressure exist with a frequency equal to that of internal waves. The amplitude of pulsations can be approximately an order lower than the amplitude of fluctuations generated by standing surface waves. However, local maxima can exist in the low-frequency minimum of the spectrum of microseisms (in the range of 20–1000 s).Translated by Mikhail M. Trufanov.     

亚洲南部地区海陆分布对亚洲冬季风影响的数值试验

利用美国国家大气研究中心研制的第三代公共气候模式CCM3/NCAR,设计了一系列数值试验,研究非洲大陆、印度半岛、中南半岛与其周围的阿拉伯海、印度洋和孟加拉湾及南海海陆交叉分布对亚洲冬季风环流形成的重要作用.试验结果表明:亚洲南部地区的阿拉伯海、孟加拉湾和南海冬季风及其越赤道气流的存在与非洲大陆-阿拉伯海-印度半岛-孟加拉湾-中南半岛-南海的海陆热力差异有关;并且冬季热带地区北风分量的产生也与次行星尺度海陆热力差有关,同时这些次行星尺度海陆热力差也对副热带和高纬度冬季风形成有明显作用.试验结果也表明中南半岛不仅对临近的冬季风有局地的影响,对冬季风的传播也有重要的作用,中南半岛的存在减弱了流向孟加拉湾和印度的冬季偏东风气流,使部分气流在南海转向,形成了南海冬季风;另外,非洲陆地、印度半岛和中南半岛的存在都能对其高空的副热带急流产生重要的影响,尤其是印度半岛和中南半岛的存在对高原南支副热带急流的维持有重要的作用;另外也讨论了这些陆地与海洋间的热力差对冬季地面气温和降水的影响.     

舟山渔港风暴潮模拟分析

渔港风暴潮研究对防灾减灾具有重要意义。本文构建了舟山海域嵌套网格的风暴潮模型,经天文潮与风暴潮实测资料验证效果良好。设计5个方向共14条台风路径,计算了2017年8月8-12日大潮期12～17级台风下舟山渔港的风暴潮位。结果表明,由于向岸风作用南侧SE向比北侧E向登陆台风所造成的最高风暴潮位高35.7%,差值可达82 cm;对于两端通海的舟山渔港,南侧0.5R处登陆的SE向台风,风向与东口门朝向一致而跟渔港走向斜交,有利于水体进入并滞留,此时风暴潮位最高。南侧12级台风下ESE、SE、SSE发生漫堤,而北侧登陆台风无漫堤风险,沉降等原因造成海堤防台能力两头低于中段;数值试验显示,若在小干岛东侧设置丁坝,可将17级台风作用下的漫堤概率由26.23%减为10.66%。     

典型海湾风暴潮特征数值模拟与研究

铁山港海湾是一个遭受风暴潮灾害影响较为严重的半封闭型海湾,基于有限元海洋数学模型ADCIRC (Advanced Circulation Model)研究了1409号"威马逊"台风期间铁山港海湾的风暴潮特征及非线性作用。结果表明:当考虑天文潮与风暴潮之间的相互作用时,风暴潮水位的计算结果更加准确,只考虑纯台风影响时,计算结果会低估风暴潮增水值,高估减水值,对预报结果造成较大的误差。海湾内部的增水要远大于湾外,但是减水值则相差不大。通过对天文潮和风暴潮非线性作用的影响因子进行分析,风应力的浅水效应可以忽略,但底摩擦项和对流项影响较大。在海湾内部对流项占主导地位,与天文潮的耦合作用也较强;而在湾外,底摩擦项占优势,耦合作用在海湾内外都较强。天文潮与风暴潮相互作用产生的非线性水位在湾顶处最大可达0.94 m,出现在风暴潮最大减水时刻,风暴潮增水发生后有所减弱,非线性水位表现出从湾外向湾内递增的规律。     

Propagation of the Southwest Indian Ridge at the Rodrigues Triple Junction

The analysis of multibeam bathymetric data of the Southwest Indian Ridge(SWIR) domain between the triple junction traces from 68° E to theRodrigues Triple Junction (RTJ; 70° E) reveals the evolution of thisridge since magnetic anomaly 4 (8 Ma). Image processing has been used toshow that the horizontal component of strain due to a network of normal stepfaults increases dramatically between 69°30 E and the RTJ. Thisarea close to the RTJ is characterized by a deep graben at the foot of thetriple junction trace on the African plate and by a narrow fault-boundedridge that joins an offset of the trace on the Antarctic plate. In thatarea, spreading is primarily amagmatic and dominated by tectonic extensionprocesses. To the west of 69°30 E, some lobate bathymetricfeatures atop of a large topographic high suggest volcanic constructions.Between 68°10 E and 69°25 E the southern flank of theSWIR domain is wider than the northern one and is characterized by a series of 7 en echelon bathymetric highs similar in size,shape and orientation to the one centred at 69°30E near the present-day triple junction. Their en echelon organization along the triple junction trace on the Antarctic plate and the typical lack of conjugated parts on the northern flank show that these bathymetric highs have been shifted to the south by successive northward relocalisations of the SWIR rifting zone. This evolution results in the asymmetric spreading of the SWIR in the survey area. The off-axis bathymetric highs connect to the offsets of the triple junction trace on the Antarctic plate when the Southeast Indian Ridges lightly lengthenstoward the northwest and the triple junction is relocated to the north. We propose that the SWIR lengthens toward the northeast with two propagation modes: 1) a continuous and progressive propagation with distributed deformation in preexisting crust of the Central Indian Ridge, 2) a discontinuous propagation with focusing of the deformation in a rift zone when the triple junction migrates rapidly to the north. The modes of propagation of the SWIR are related to different localisation and distribution of strain which are in turn controlled by changes of the triple junction configurations due to propagation, recession or a symmetric spreading on the Central and Southeast Indian Ridges.     

Theoretical models of the height of the atmospheric boundary layer and turbulent entrainment at its upper boundary

The planetary boundary layer (PBL), which directly interacts with the underlying surface, differs significantly in its nature from the low-turbulent stably stratified free atmosphere. Fluctuations of the Earth’s surface heat balance immediately affect the PBL and assimilate there owing to the effective mechanism of turbulent heat transfer. In this case the upper boundary of the PBL plays the role of a cover, preventing the direct penetration of thermal effects and contaminants into an overlying atmospheric layer. In view of this, air pollution is especially dangerous when associated with shallow PBL. In addition, local peculiarities of climate change are mainly determined by the PBL height due to the high sensitivity of thin stably stratified PBLs to the thermal effects. Deep convective PBLs are not very sensitive to weak thermal effects, but they significantly affect the formation of convective cloudiness and the climate system as a whole by means of the turbulent entrainment of the thermal energy, humidity, aerosols, and other admixtures through the upper boundary. The PBL height and turbulent entrainment must be calculated when simulating and forecasting air pollution, abnormal frosts and heat, and other hazardous phenomena. In this paper we discuss the state-of-the-art knowledge in the area of PBL height simulation and suggest a new model of turbulent entrainment for convective PBLs.     

浙江海门站风暴潮增水特征及其预报

台州湾地区是浙江省风暴潮灾害重灾区之一,海门站位于浙江台州湾口门处.本文分析1950-2004年间对浙江造成重大影响的台风风暴潮过程,了解海门站台风风暴增水特征,并结合实际预报工作初步探讨海门站风暴潮预报方法和预报着眼点.     

Analysis of the Voyager storm

We analyse the wind and wave conditions present in the Mediterranean Sea at the time and location when the cruise ship Voyager was reportedly hit by one or more big waves and suffered substantial damage. The analysis is done using wind and wave modelling supported by satellite and buoy wind and wave data. Granted the hindcast of the storm, we also analyse the local conditions for the possibility of freak waves.     

广东省风暴潮时空分布特征及重点城市风暴潮风险研究

收集、整理、分析1949年以来广东省10个典型验潮站的近500站次台风风暴潮过程,开展了广东省台风风暴潮和超警戒风暴潮时空分布特征研究。结果表明:广东省台风风暴潮主要发生时间为7—9月,其中7月最多、9月次之,雷州半岛东岸无论发生次数还是强度都明显偏多、偏强,其次为阳江;风暴潮灾害则主要发生在7—10月,以7月最多;风暴潮灾害频发区依次为珠江口、雷州半岛东岸、阳江和汕头,风暴潮灾害严重区依次为汕头、阳江和雷州半岛东岸,阳江和雷州半岛东岸为风暴潮灾害频发区和严重区。选取受台风风暴潮影响频繁和严重的典型区域阳江市。利用业务化的台风风暴潮模式开展了不同等级台风影响下阳江市的最大风暴潮风险研究,中心最低气压为970hPa的台风在最有利路径下产生的风暴潮为185cm,约20a一遇,940hPa的台风产生的风暴潮为310cm,约为500a一遇。     

1014“暹芭”期间浙北海域风暴潮特征分析

主要针对2010年度的1014号台风“暹芭”和本年度的首次全国性的强冷空气共同影响下的风暴潮进行分析,结合天气形势,分析其特征,总结浙北海域出现超警戒水位的风暴潮原因,并从调和分析着手,具体分析风暴潮的非线形耦合作用,解释风暴潮具有周期性特征和出现最大增水出现时刻,并简单介绍此次过程我台的监测预报服务工作和灾情的调查等...     

琼州海峡海口站近岸风暴增水概率风险分析

基于海口站1976~1997年逐时潮位和逐日最大风速资料,利用阿基米德Copula函数构建海口年最大增水与相应日期最大风速的联合概率分布模型。结果表明:1)广义极值分布可作为海口站年最大增水和相应日期最大风速的边缘分布。两个序列之间存在强正相关关系,G-H Copula函数更适用于作为海口站年最大增水和相应日期的最大风速联合概率分布的连接函数。2)两变量联合作用的同频率增水高度设计值与增水的单变量边缘分布设计值之间的相对差值约为7.5%。3)条件概率1(P(Y≥y|X≥x))中同频率的年最大增水和相应风速的遭遇概率介于78.2%~80.9%,条件概率2(P(Y≥y|X≤x))中同频率的年最大增水和相应风速两者的遭遇概率小于4.8%。     

吕宋海峡内波传播演化的数值模拟

吕宋海峡生成的内波在往南海西部传播的过程中,具有明显的二维辐射特征,这是传统的一维KdV模式无法刻画的.基于弱二维的KP方程,并结合南中国海吕宋海峡附近内孤立波的观测资料,模拟了潮成内波的演化特征.数值结果较好地反应了内孤立波的二维特征.相比于一维的KdV方程,KP在内孤立波的仿真反演方面具有更大的优势.     

洋中脊分段性及其拓展和叠接机制

各种扩张速率下的洋中脊被转换断层和非转换断层分成许多段(长10到100km不等),而且这种岩浆活动和构造的分段特性在大西洋中脊表现特别明显。洋脊分段特征可以划分为4级。其中,转换断层是1级间断,其错断洋脊距离大于30km,其长度可达1000km左右,存在寿命可达10Ma。相邻转换断层之间的距离间隔也与扩张速率有关：扩张速率最慢处的距离间隔小于200km,中速一快速扩张脊为600～1000km,扩张速率大于140mm／a的脊段上未发现转换断层,总体上转换断层间距随扩张速率而增加。叠接拓展中心、斜向剪切带、火山间隔和横向断错等分别为2～4级间断,出现在两条转换断层之间,使洋中脊错断距离逐渐减少。2～4级区段的洋中脊长度也越来越小,存在的寿命也越来越短,直至4级区段的洋中脊长度一般小于10km,存在寿命为10^2～10^4a。这种分段性无论在超快速、快速、中速、慢速扩张脊,还是超慢速扩张脊都存在,其分段机制都与洋中脊拓展、叠接、跃迁(或废弃)、死亡过程密切相关,而拓展、叠接过程又受多种动力要素控制。正是洋中脊分段的动力机制控制了中央裂谷的存在与否。