Decision support for climate change adaptation planning in the US: why it needs a coordinated internet-based practitioners’ network

Decision support resources are emerging across the United States to address the adaptation and mitigation challenges associated with climate variability and change. In theory, climate-related decision support identifies the need to move beyond the linear dissemination of information from experts to decision-makers. Interviews with researchers and federal program managers, however, show that in practice there are still wide gaps between the development of climate science and its application. Lessons learned in two example cases of decision support experiments are discussed to highlight some of the on-going challenges in applying climate science, e.g. defining decision support, involving decision-makers, and determining effectiveness. The published literature also shows these reoccurring challenges but emphasizes more collaboration between science and decision-makers as this improves the relevance, compatibility, and accessibility of climate science information and can increase users’ receptiveness. This article proposes that the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) can help the development of decision support resources, in one way, by coordinating an Internet-based practitioners’ network. A coordinated network could provide opportunities for climate-related decision support practitioners to build collaborative partnerships, share lessons-learned, provide feedback to the USGCRP, and thereby assist the transition of science into decision-making processes to better address adaptation planning.     

Climate change and food stress in Russia: what if the market transforms as it did during the past century?

It is expected that a warmer climate would be beneficial for agriculture in high latitudes. However, this general tendency is not necessarily true for all northern countries, as a short growing period is not the only factor limiting agriculture. For Russia, our model shows that the remarkable increase in potential yield in central and northern-forested regions would not compensate for a sharp drop in yields due to increasing frequency of droughts in the currently most productive southern European regions. If this scenario is indeed realized, the majority of Russian regions will continue to rely on import of agricultural products from a few regions with the best soils, and a system of interregional grain trade will remain critical for food security. However, the basic rules of interregional food market have varied widely over the past century. We have attempted an analysis of the potential impact of these basic rules on regional food security by describing four basic historical market scenarios and applying these scenarios to our results for climate change impact on agriculture in the 2020s and 2070s. We show that the current system, if it continues, would bring the worst results. We also show that the traditionally effective planned adaptation measures would help little in future climate conditions if the current market system were still in place.     

Is it time to abolish company car benefits? An analysis of transport behaviour in Germany and implications for climate change

Company cars have received considerable attention because of their partial tax-exemption and the changes in travel behaviour they stimulate, including car model choices, distances driven, and car ownership patterns. This paper is the first to present evidence on actual transport behaviour change, based on mobility and fuel diaries, and comparing a sample of 624 company cars and 9328 private cars in Germany. Analysis confirms that company cars belong to the more heavily motorized car segments (with an average 97?kW, as opposed to 79?kW of private cars), and are driven more than private cars (24,672?km per year, compared to 12,828?km per year for private cars). Company car benefits also increase average household vehicle numbers by 25%. Results show that it is imperative to distinguish company cars of company owners relative to those driven by employees, as negative externalities increase significantly where company cars are used by the latter. Abolishing company car benefits could significantly reduce emissions from passenger road transport and stimulate change in the country’s automotive industries towards a lower-carbon path. As Germany is not currently on track to meet its climate mitigation targets, this would be a timely policy shift.

Key policy insights

• Company car benefits increase transport demand, car ownership, and average vehicle fleet engine power. These effects are particularly relevant for employees.

• Company cars have, in spite of their larger size and greater engine power, a (modestly) better fuel economy than private cars, possibly because they represent more recent and hence more efficient car models.

• A policy focus on vehicle fuel efficiency improvements will fail to reduce the German car fleet’s CO₂ emissions to a sustainable level.

• Abolishing company car benefits could yield a significant reduction in GHG emissions from passenger road transport.

• Company car subsidies are an out-dated mode of support for the fossil-fuel based automotive industry.

     

In it for the money,the environment,or the community? Motives for being involved in community energy initiatives

Community energy initiatives can foster a sustainable energy transition by promoting sustainable energy behaviour in the communities in which they are embedded. This raises the question of what motivates people to become involved in these initiatives. We investigated the importance of financial, environmental, and communal motives for initiative involvement. We propose that communal motives (i.e., being involved in one’s local community) may be related to initiative involvement, as community energy initiatives not only aim to promote sustainable energy behaviour but also enable people to be involved in their community. Across three studies, respondents rated financial and environmental motives as more important than communal motives for their involvement in community energy initiatives. Yet, environmental and communal motives were uniquely related to initiative involvement, while financial motives were not. The discrepancy between which motives people rate as important and which motives actually relate to their initiative involvement suggests that financial motives are an overrated motive, while communal motives are an underrated motive for involvement in community energy initiatives. Our results suggest that targeting communal motives may be an additional way to enhance involvement in community energy initiatives and foster sustainable behaviour among people, who may not otherwise be interested in environmental protection.     

Why geoengineering is not a ‘global public good’, and why it is ethically misleading to frame it as one

In early policy work, climate engineering is often described as a global public good. This paper argues that the paradigm example of geoengineering—stratospheric sulfate injection (hereafter ‘SSI’)—does not fit the canonical technical definition of a global public good, and that more relaxed versions are unhelpful. More importantly, it claims that, regardless of the technicalities, the public good framing is seriously misleading, in part because it arbitrarily marginalizes ethical concerns. Both points suggest that more clarity is needed about the aims of geoengineering policy—and especially governance—and that this requires special attention to ethics.     

PPP Correction of the IPCC Emission Scenarios – Does it Matter?

Ian Castles and David Henderson have criticized IPCC’s Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) (IPCC: 2000, Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 595 pp. http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/index.htm) for using market exchange rates (MER) instead of purchasing power parities (PPP), when converting regional GDP into a common denominator. The consequence is that poor countries generally appear to be poorer than they actually are. An overstated income gap between the rich and poor countries in the base year gives rise to projections of too high economic growth in the poor countries, because the scenarios are constructed with the aim of reducing the income gap. Castles and Henderson claim that overstated economic growth means that greenhouse gas emissions are overstated as well. However, because closure of the emission-intensity gap between the rich and the poor parts of the world is another important driving force in the scenarios, we argue that the use of MER in the SRES scenarios has not caused an overestimation of the global emission growth because, as far as global emissions are concerned, the overstated income gap is effectively neutralized by the overstated emission-intensity gap.     

Changes in extreme daily mean temperatures in summer in eastern China during 1955–2000

Summary Statistical characteristics of extremely low and high daily mean temperatures in summer (June, July and August) in eastern China have been investigated. The extremely low temperatures are defined as those days with temperatures not exceeding the 10th percentile with respect to the reference period of 1961–90; similarly the extremely high temperatures are defined as those exceeding the 90th percentile. There are well-defined spatial structures in trends of the frequency of extremely low temperatures as well as of high temperature extremes. In the north region (i.e. northern and northeastern China) the linear trends of frequency of low and high temperature extremes are –1.09 and +1.23 days/10yr, respectively. For the southern portion of the study area, the trends are –1.32 and –2.32 days/10yr. Taking the study area as a whole, the linear trends are –0.76 days/10yr and +1.08 days/10yr, respectively. The changes of frequency of extreme temperatures are mainly related to the shift in the temperature means. There is a dominant anticyclonic pattern in the lower- to middle troposphere over East Asia in association with warmer conditions in the north region. For the south region there is a jump-like change in the summer mean temperature and the extreme temperature events in around 1976. The large-scale northwestern Pacific subtropical high plays an important role in the jump-like changes of the temperature extremes.     

Advances in Severe Convection Research and Operation in China

This article reviews the advances in severe convection research and operation in China during the past several decades.The favorable synoptic situations for severe convective weather(SCW),the major organization modes of severe convective storms(SCSs),the favorable environmental conditions and characteristics of weather radar echoes and satellite images of SCW and SCSs,and the forecasting and nowcasting techniques of SCW,are emphasized.As a whole,Chinese scientists have achieved a profound understanding of the synoptic patterns,organization,and evolution characteristics of SCW from radar and satellite observations,and the mechanisms of different types of convective weather in China.Specifically,in-depth understanding of the multiple types of convection triggers,along with the environmental conditions,structures and organization modes,and maintenance mechanisms of supercell storms and squall lines,has been obtained.The organization modes and climatological distributions of mesoscale convective systems and different types of SCW,and the multiscale characteristics and formation mechanisms of large hail,tornadoes,downbursts,and damaging convective wind gusts based on radar,satellite,and lightning observations,as well as the related features from damage surveys,are elucidated.In terms of operational applications,different types of identification and mesoanalysis techniques,and various forecasting and nowcasting techniques using methods such as the"ingredients-based"and deep learning algorithms,have been developed.As a result,the performance of operational SCW forecasts in China has been significantly improved.     

A Chinese commitment to commit: can it break the negotiation stall?

Preparatory talks to the next round of negotiations seem to indicate that a comprehensive agreement to mitigate climate change will not be easily attainable, despite the intentions of the US administration and the high expectations surrounding the Copenhagen meeting. One key reason is to what extent fast growing economies, and especially China, should take actions to reduce their growth of emissions. This paper argues that a turning point for international negotiations on climate change could be achieved if China were to agree on carbon obligations in the future. Results from modelling work suggest that the optimal investment behaviour is to anticipate the implementation of a climate policy by roughly 10 years, and that thus future commitments—if credible—could lead to significantly earlier steps towards carbon mitigation. If fast growing economies, and foremost China, believe in the long term objective of global stabilization of carbon concentrations, it might be economically rationale to sign on future targets, provided developed countries take on immediate action. Such a provision could be beneficial for both the developing and developed world.     

The western Mediterranean climate: how will it respond to global warming?

The paper discusses the newly produced temperature and precipitation series from instrumental observations in the Western Mediterranean (WM) area, dating back to 1654. The two series had a continuous swing and unstable coupling passing from correlation to anti-correlation. Only after 1950 are they permanently anti-correlated with increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation. It is not clear how long this coupling will persist. The analysis of the correlation between the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and the WM temperature anomalies and their trends shows a certain variability from 1850 to 1950; later a strong coupling between NH and WM. Results suggest that the WM climate is approaching a turning point that might locally oppose the adverse effects of Global Warming.     

The Duststorm in China

ＴＨＥＤＵＳＴＳＴＯＲＭＩＮＣＨＩＮＡＺｈｕＦｕｋａｎｇ（朱福康）ａｎｄＺｈａｎｇＷｅｎｑｉａｎ（章文茜）ＩｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅｏｆＳｙｎｏｐｔｉｃａｎｄＤｙｎａｍｉｃＭｅｔｅｏｒｏｌｏｇｙＡＢＳＴＲＡＣＴＴｈｉｓｐａｐｅｒａｎａｌｙｚｅｓｔｈｅｇｅｏｇ...     

Trends in CO2 emissions in Israel—an international perspective

As a Party to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Israel conducts a periodical inventory of greenhouse gases emissions. These data allowed the generation of time series of CO₂ emissions per capita and per GDP for the period 1990–2004. It was found that CO₂ emissions per capita increased dramatically from 1990 to 2000, reflecting the rapid economic growth that was initiated by the massive immigration wave at the beginning of the nineties. These emissions remained stable between 2000 and 2004, reflecting the economic stagnation caused by the uprising in the Palestinian Territories, as well as stagnation in the global economy. CO₂ emissions per GDP (CO₂ intensity) remained stable along the whole reviewed period. This stability can be explained by a shift in electricity consumption from the industrial sector towards the commercial and the residential sectors, corresponding to an increase in the standard of living in the same period. A comparison was held with countries considered as developed for many years represented by the five largest economies (G-5) and recently developed countries (RDCs). Although Israel exhibits emission levels within the range of the G-5 countries, it does not fit the patterns demonstrated by these countries. Trends observed in Israel resemble these observed in other RDCs, such as Spain or Greece, confirming the classification of Israel in this category.     

Progress in Marine Meteorology Studies in China during 1999-2002

The progresses of marine meteorology studies achieved in China during the four year period from 1999 to 2002 are summarized in six directions: air-sea flux, marine meteorology in high latitudes, marine disasters, connection between ocean and weather/climate in China, remote sensing applications and new methodologies in marine meteorology. Compared to the previous ones, these studies adopted much more first-hand datasets, and more scientific issues were involved. As an exciting remark, there were so many contributions done by the young scientists. A brief statement about the research strategy of marine meteorology in China for the coming years is also given.     

The rainfall regime in Lisbon in the last 150 years

The first decades of the rainfall series of Lisbon have been digitized recently allowing a long-term assessment of the rainfall regime for 150 years of uninterrupted, i.e., the first assessment for the longest continuous precipitation time series in western Iberia. This data has been monitored continuously at the D. Luís observatory having started to be published in 1864 in the Observatory's log books (Annals). We use an approach based on different characteristics of rain spells that has been proved to be satisfactory for the analysis of the different parameters related to the rainfall regime in that part of the world. Thus, a rain spell is defined as a series of consecutive days with a measured daily rainfall equal or higher than 1.0 mm. Each rain spell is preceded and followed by at least one dry day. For each rain spell, its duration, its yield (RSY), and its average intensity (RSI) was calculated. Additionally, the total number of rain spells in each year was also considered. Dryness was analyzed using the dry days since last rain approach. Besides the evaluation over the entire 150-year period available, we have also looked into three equally spaced sub-periods. Lisbon reveals large inter-annual and intra-annual variability and both have increased considerably in the last decades. The large intra-annual variability is demonstrated by both; a very large range of annual rainfall percentage accumulated at any given date and by a very large range of dates on which a certain rainfall percentage was accumulated. Again, both metrics increased in the last decades. Parallel to the increase in the uncertainty, a very significant net increase is noticed in the annual totals since the 1960s compared to the first half of the previous century. The increase is mainly due to more intense events which are reflected by higher RSY and RSI values in the last 50 years.     

Variability and trends in daily minimum and maximum temperatures and in the diurnal temperature range in Lithuania,Latvia and Estonia in 1951–2010

Spatial distribution and trends in mean and absolute maximum and minimum temperatures and in the diurnal temperature range were analysed at 47 stations in the eastern Baltic region (Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia) during 1951–2010. Dependence of the studied variables on geographical factors (latitude, the Baltic Sea, land elevation) is discussed. Statistically significant increasing trends in maximum and minimum temperatures were detected for March, April, July, August and annual values. At the majority of stations, the increase was detected also in February and May in case of maximum temperature and in January and May in case of minimum temperature. Warming was slightly higher in the northern part of the study area, i.e. in Estonia. Trends in the diurnal temperature range differ seasonally. The highest increasing trend revealed in April and, at some stations, also in May, July and August. Negative and mostly insignificant changes have occurred in January, February, March and June. The annual temperature range has not changed.     

Changes in the rainfall–streamflow regimes related to climate change in a small catchment in Northern Italy

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Climate change has become an important issue for scientific community, for its numerous impacts, especially on agriculture and environment. To shed light on...     

Progress in Predictability Studies in China （2003-2006）

Since the last International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics General Assembly(2003),predictability studies in China have made significant progress.For dynamic forecasts,two novel approaches of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation and nonlinear local Lyapunov exponents were proposed to cope with the predictability problems of weather and climate,which are superior to the corresponding linear theory.A possible mechanism for the"spring predictability barrier"phenomenon for the El Ni(?)o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)was provided based on a theoretical model.To improve the forecast skill of an intermediate coupled ENSO model,a new initialization scheme was developed,and its applicability was illustrated by hindcast experiments.Using the reconstruction phase space theory and the spatio-temporal series predictive method, Chinese scientists also proposed a new approach to improve dynamical extended range(monthly)prediction and successfully applied it to the monthly-scale predictability of short-term climate variations.In statistical forecasts,it was found that the effects of sea surface temperature on precipitation in China have obvious spatial and temporal distribution features,and that summer precipitation patterns over east China are closely related to the northern atmospheric circulation.For ensemble forecasts,a new initial perturbation method was used to forecast heavy rain in Guangdong and Fujian Provinces on 8 June 1998.Additionally, the ensemble forecast approach was also used for the prediction of a tropical typhoons.A new downscaling model consisting of dynamical and statistical methods was provided to improve the prediction of the monthly mean precipitation.This new downsealing model showed a relatively higher score than the issued operational forecast.