用三性法讨论美国西部8级大震的预测

三性分布由25年、倍25年和25年的黄金分割点组成,美国西部4次8级大震符合三性分布的某些时间点。按此分布,我们预测在2017年前后美国西部可能发生8级地震。     

用美国西部强震记录讨论厚覆盖土层峰值加速度的放大效应

以美国西部强震观测数据资料为基础,分别建立基岩和厚土层上的峰值加速度衰减规律,探讨厚土层对基岩峰值加速度的放大作用.结论为:平均而言,对美国西部这样的厚土层峰值加速度放大作用不大.但基岩峰值加速度越大,厚土层放大作用越小;震中距越远,厚土层放大作用越大.     

用非传统方法回顾性讨论2008年3月21日新疆于田7.3级地震的预测

2008年3月21日新疆于田7.3级地震(35.6°N,81.6°E)可用以下非传统方法作预测. (1) 35度天文构造痕带.这个带的天文背景是地球自转时低纬鼓起和高纬下缩,其交界带为35度纬带.另外月亮引潮力的长期项也是35度带以南鼓起,以北下缩.     

中国西部地震动衰减关系的适用性分析——以部分新疆地震为例

本文利用新疆地区丰富的烈度等震线资料和1985年乌恰7.1级地震的余震、1997伽师4次6级地震和2005年乌什6.2级地震的加速度记录,对中国西部地震烈度和地震动反应谱衰减关系的适用性进行了分析.结果表明,中国西部地震动衰减关系对新疆地区的适用性较好.其中加速度反应谱的相关系数达到0.94.     

用远震体波宽频带记录分析1993年10月2日中国新疆南部Mb6．2地震的震源过程

远震体波宽频带记录可以用来研究震源参数和破裂过程。利用宽频带地震记录的Ｐ波振幅，可以找到一种较方便地得到一次中强地震的震源机制解的计算方法。１９９３年１０月２日中国新疆南部Ｍｂ６．２地震是一个较为复杂的事件，利用宽频带波形资料和本文提出的一种简化的计算震源两个子事件相对位置的方法分析后认为，这次事件实质上是两次破裂的结果。Ｍｂ６．２地震事件发生前约２．３秒，有另一个小地震事件发生，两个事件之间的相对距离约为５．５ｋｍ，沿破裂面接走向以顺时针方向计，小地震事件相对于主破裂之间的方位是２９５°。对于以上提出的两种算法的结果，我们进行了宽频带地震波形正演拟合检验，证明了算法的有效性。新疆是个多地震地区，本文以新疆南部这次Ｍｂ６．２地震为中心，对方圆２００ｋｍ范围内的历史地震序列作了分析，并对这次地震的构造意义进行了讨论。     

关于“用单元降刚法探索中国大陆强震远距离跳迁及主体活动区域转移”的讨论——横向各向同性“杀伤单元”才是更好的途径

《地球物理学报》第55卷第1期的"用单元降刚法探索中国大陆强震远距离跳迁及主体活动区域转移"一文提出用减小剪切模量的方法模拟地震断层错动的效应,这种处理虽然可以模拟压扭性走滑断层错动时的剪应力降低,但会导致垂直于断层的正应力也剧烈变化,因此这种简单的减小弹性模量的方法并不合理.本文探讨了一种更好的方法--横向各向同性"杀伤单元",利用该方法模拟断层滑动效应得到了较为合理的结果,与Okada解析解吻合较好,能够正确反映断层滑动时的应力变化.     

Tritium hydrology of the Mississippi River basin

In the early 1960s, the US Geological Survey began routinely analysing river water samples for tritium concentrations at locations within the Mississippi River basin. The sites included the main stem of the Mississippi River (at Luling Ferry, Louisiana), and three of its major tributaries, the Ohio River (at Markland Dam, Kentucky), the upper Missouri River (at Nebraska City, Nebraska) and the Arkansas River (near Van Buren, Arkansas). The measurements cover the period during the peak of the bomb‐produced tritium transient when tritium concentrations in precipitation rose above natural levels by two to three orders of magnitude. Using measurements of tritium concentrations in precipitation, a tritium input function was established for the river basins above the Ohio River, Missouri River and Arkansas River sampling locations. Owing to the extent of the basin above the Luling Ferry site, no input function was developed for that location. The input functions for the Ohio and Missouri Rivers were then used in a two‐component mixing model to estimate residence times of water within these two basins. (The Arkansas River was not modelled because of extremely large yearly variations in flow during the peak of the tritium transient.) The two components used were: (i) recent precipitation (prompt outflow) and (ii) waters derived from the long‐term groundwater reservoir of the basin. The tritium concentration of the second component is a function of the atmospheric input and the residence times of the groundwaters within the basin. Using yearly time periods, the parameters of the model were varied until a best fit was obtained between modelled and measured tritium data. The results from the model indicate that about 40% of the flow in the Ohio River was from prompt outflow, as compared with 10% for the Missouri River. Mean residence times of 10 years were calculated for the groundwater component of the Ohio River versus 4 years for the Missouri River. The mass flux of tritium through the Mississippi Basin and its tributaries was calculated during the years that tritium measurements were made. The cumulative fluxes, calculated in grams of ³H were: (i) 160 g for the Ohio (1961–1986), (ii) 98 g for the upper Missouri (1963–1997), (iii) 30 g for the Arkansas (1961–1997) and (iv) 780 g for the Mississippi (1961–1997). Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Tritium balance in macro‐scale river basins analysed through distributed hydrological modelling

The recession of bomb tritium in river discharge of large basins indicates a contribution of slowly moving water. For an appropriate interpretation it is necessary to consider different runoff components (e.g. direct runoff and ground water components) and varying residence times of tritium in these components. The spatially distributed catchment model (tracer aided catchment model, distributed; TAC^D) and a tritium balance model (TRIBIL) were combined to model process‐based tritium balances in a large German river basin (Weser 46 240 km²) and seven embedded sub‐basins. The hydrological model (monthly time step, 2 × 2 km²) estimated the three major runoff components: direct runoff, fast‐moving and slow‐moving ground water for the period of 1950 to 1999. The model incorporated topography, land use, geomorphology, geology and hydro‐meteorological data. The results for the different basins indicated a contribution of direct runoff of 30–50% and varying amounts for fast and slow ground water components. Combining these results with the TRIBIL model allowed us to estimate the residence time of the components. Mean residence times of 8 to 14 years were found for the fast ground water component, 21 to 93 years for the slow ground water component and 14 to 50 years for an overall mean residence time within these basins. Balance calculations for the Weser basin indicate an over‐estimation of loss of tritium through evapotranspiration (more than 60%) and decay (10%). About 28% were carried in stream‐flow where direct runoff contributed about 12% and ground water runoff 13% in relation to precipitation input over the studied 50‐year period. Neighbouring basins and nuclear power plants contributed about 1% each over this time period. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Environmental isotope study on hydrodynamics of Lake Naini,Uttar Pradesh,India

Environmental isotopes (δ¹⁸O, δD and ³H) were used to understand the hydrodynamics of Lake Naini in the State of Uttar Pradesh, India. The data was correlated with the in situ physico‐chemical parameters, namely temperature, electrical conductivity and dissolved oxygen. The analysis of the data shows that Lake Naini is a warm monomictic lake [i.e. in a year, the lake is stratified during the summer months (March/April to October/November) and well mixed during the remaining months]. The presence of a centrally submerged ridge inhibits the mixing of deeper waters of the lake's two sub‐basins, and they exhibit differential behaviour. The rates of change of isotopic composition of hypolimnion and epilimnion waters of the lake indicate that the water retention time of the lake is very short, and the two have independent inflow components. A few groundwater inflow points to the lake are inferred along the existing fractures, fault planes and dykes. In addition to poor vertical mixing of the lake due to the temperature‐induced seasonal stratification, the lake also shows poor horizontal mixing at certain locations of the lake. The lake–groundwater system appears to be a flow‐through type. Also, a tritium and water‐balance model was developed to estimate the water retention time of well‐mixed and hydrologically steady state lakes. The model assumes a piston flow of groundwater contributing to the lake. The developed model was verified for (a) Finger Lakes, New York; (b) Lake Neusiedlersee, Austria; and (c) Blue Lake, Australia based on literature data. The predicted water retention times of the lakes were close to those reported or calculated from the hydrological parameters given in the references. On application of this model to Lake Naini, a water retention time of ～2 years and age of groundwater contributing to the lake ～14 years is obtained. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Active faults and seismogenic models for the Urumqi city,Xinjiang Autonomous Region,China

We have studied the characteristics of the active faults and seismicity in the vicinity of Urumqi city, the capital of Xinjiang Autonomous Region, China, and have proposed a seismogenic model for the assessment of earthquake hazard in this area. Our work is based on an integrated analysis of data from investigations of active faults at the surface, deep seismic reflection soundings,seismic profiles from petroleum exploration, observations of temporal seismic stations, and the precise location of small earthquakes. We have made a comparative study of typical seismogenic structures in the frontal area of the North Tianshan Mountains, where Urumqi city is situated,and have revealed the primary features of the thrust-foldnappe structure there. We suggest that Urumqi city is comprised two zones of seismotectonics which are interpreted as thrust-nappe structures. The first is the thrust nappe of the North Tianshan Mountains in the west, consisting of the lower(root) thrust fault, middle detachment,and upper fold-uplift at the front. Faults active in the Pleistocene are present in the lower and upper parts of this structure, and the detachment in the middle spreads toward the north. In the future, M7 earthquakes may occur at the root thrust fault, while the seismic risk of frontal fold-uplift at the front will not exceed M6.5. The second structure is the western flank of the arc-like Bogda nappe in the east,which is also comprised a root thrust fault, middle detachment, and upper fold-uplift at the front, of which the nappe stretches toward the north; several active faults are also developed in it. The fault active in the Holocene is called the South Fukang fault. It is not in the urban area of Urumqi city. The other three faults are located in the urban area and were active in the late Pleistocene. In these cases,this section of the nappe structure near the city has an earthquake risk of M6.5–7. An earthquake M_S6.6, 60 km east to Urumqi city occurred along the structure in 1965.     

干旱区高山泥炭磁学特性研究

对干旱区高山—新疆阿尔泰山中段连续的泥炭沉积序列进行详细系统的磁学分析,获得泥炭沉积物中磁性矿物的类型、含量以及粒径大小等磁学特性,探讨了在富含大量有机质的氧化还原条件下磁性矿物的保存与变化机理.岩石磁学结果表明沉积物中亚铁磁性矿物的富集程度低,磁性较弱.主要含有磁铁矿、赤铁矿、顺磁性矿物以及大量的抗磁性矿物组分,并且证实泥炭沉积物中不可能含有生物成因的趋磁细菌.沉积物的磁性颗粒主要以细颗粒为主,但同时还存在粗颗粒成分.研究结果指示在泥炭表层酸性的亚氧环境中,亚铁磁性矿物在较短的时间内伴随着部分溶解和改造,导致沉积物磁性浓度的降低和粒径的减小,快速的沉积和埋藏之后,长期处于缺氧的碱性还原环境下,磁铁矿发生的变化很小或基本不会再次被改造.     

鄱阳湖湿地碟形湖-河流水稳定同位素变化特征及其指示意义

为深入认识鄱阳湖湿地区域水循环过程,于2019年1—12月在鄱阳湖国家级自然保护区对降水、河流水、主要碟形湖水进行系统采集,综合分析碟形湖-河流水稳定同位素的动态变化特征及其指示意义。结果表明,鄱阳湖湿地修河和赣江的同位素组成具有明显的季节性变化规律,4月河水同位素最为富集,5—7月逐渐贫化,之后呈现出不断富集的变化趋势,整体上与降水同位素的时间变化特性相似。在空间分布上,各段河水的同位素组成均具有相对稳定的沿程分布特征,赣江在修河汇入点上、下游的同位素特性在大多数月份没有呈现出明显变化。碟形湖水同位素的年内变化范围比河水大,并且相对富集。主要碟形湖水的δ²H-δ¹⁸O关系接近当地大气降水线,具有更小的蒸发线斜率以及系统性偏离的特征,反映碟形湖主要受到当地降水补给,经历了一定程度的蒸发作用。基于指数模型方法估算修河和赣江水体的平均滞留时间(mean residence time,MRT)分别为1.54和0.81年,赣江较短的MRT表明鄱阳湖流域具有不同水体组分相互快速转化的水力条件,修河上游柘林水库的调蓄作用导致其MRT明显大于赣江。通过假定...     

Long-term Circulation and Eutrophication Model for Tolo Harbour,Hong Kong

Since the early 1980s excessive discharges of organic waste into Tolo Harbour have created serious problems through nutrient enrichment. A number of eutrophication related problems have been reported which incurred financial losses of billions of dollars and serious ecological imbalance. This work addresses the development, verification and application of a water quality model to synthesize the available large database of water quality and to study water quality management issues of Tolo Harbour. Since detrimental water quality problems usually occur during summer when there is stratification and the water temperature is high, the tidally-averaged hydrodynamics and the relative contribution of gravitational circulation and tidal exchanges in Tolo Harbour have been studied. Gravitational circulation is found to be the dominant mixing process for most of the year, accounting for 70 percent of the mixing. A simple and tractable predictive two-layer mass transport and diagenetic dynamic eutrophication model has been developed. The model computes daily variation of key water quality variables in the water column: algal biomass, dissolved oxygen, organic-nitrogen, ammonium-nitrogen, nitrate-nitrogen, and carboneous oxygen demand. In addition, to study the response and impact of the seabed to the overall eutrophication process a sediment sub-model is developed. The diagenetic sediment sub-model computes explicitly the amount of nutrient recycled and the sediment oxygen demand exerted on the water column. The calibrated model has been validated against a 20 year water quality data base under a wide range of hydro-meteorological and environmental conditions. Both spatial and seasonal variation of observed water quality variables are reproduced. The verified model shows that a significant reduction of total nitrogen loading would be required to meet the water quality objectives, with a recovery time of three months for water column and more than two years for sediment.     

Isotopic time series partitioning of streamflow components under regional climate change in the Urumqi River,northwest China

ABSTRACT

We investigated the isotopic composition of the Urumqi River and documented seasonal variability attributable to the mixing of various flow sources. Next, we applied these isotopic signals to partition the sources and studied their temporal variability in summer. The isotope hydrology separation results indicated that groundwater is the dominant streamflow source (approximately 62.7%) in the Urumqi River. Precipitation is an important source for the Urumqi River; approximately 19.1–20.7% of the runoff came from precipitation during summer and early autumn. In summer, approximately 21.1% of the runoff is derived from glacial meltwater. In summer, with the increasing distance to the glacier front, groundwater accounts for a larger and larger percentage of the river water, and the contributions of precipitation and glacial meltwater gradually diminish. Throughout 2012, the proportions of precipitation and glacial meltwater in the streamflow were 17.6% and 14.7%, respectively, and only 5% of the streamflow was derived from snowmelt.

Editor Z. W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor not assigned     

Analyzing Effects of Shrub Canopy on Throughfall and Phreatic Water Using Water Isotopes,Western China

Alpine shrub Quercus aquifolioides was selected to study the effects of shrub canopy on throughfall and phreatic water by analyzing the isotopic time series of precipitation, canopy throughfall and phreatic water and examining correlations among these series in Wolong Nature Reserve, Western China. Based on analysis of precipitation data in 2003, the local meteoric water line during the rainy season was δD = 8.28 × δ¹⁸O + 8.93, and the primary precipitation moisture in this region originated from the Pacific Ocean in the summer. Stable isotope analysis showed that the main supply of throughfall and phreatic water was from precipitation, and the shrub canopy has an important effect on the processes of rainwater transmuted into throughfall and phreatic water. Moreover, the differences of δD and δ¹⁸O values between rainwater and throughfall were relevant to rainfall. Due to interception of the shrub canopy, there had a response hysteresis of phreatic water to the various rainfall events, which was mostly 2 days, except that this hysteresis was ≤1 day when rainfall was >15 mm/day.