Application of importance sampling method in sliding failure simulation of caisson breakwaters

It is assumed that the storm wave takes place once a year during the design period, and N histories of storm waves are generated on the basis of wave spectrum corresponding to the N-year design period. The responses of the breakwater to the N histories of storm waves in the N-year design period are calculated by mass-spring-dashpot mode and taken as a set of samples. The failure probability of caisson breakwaters during the design period of N years is obtained by the statistical analysis of many sets of samples. It is the key issue to improve the efficiency of the common Monte Carlo simulation method in the failure probability estimation of caisson breakwaters in the complete life cycle. In this paper, the kernel method of importance sampling, which can greatly increase the efficiency of failure probability calculation of caisson breakwaters, is proposed to estimate the failure probability of caisson breakwaters in the complete life cycle. The effectiveness of the kernel method is investigated by an example. It is indicated that the calculation efficiency of the kernel method is over 10 times the common Monte Carlo simulation method.     

Dynamic Stability Analysis of Caisson Breakwater in Lifetime Considering the Annual Frequency of Severe Storm

In the dynamic stability analysis of a caisson breakwater, most of current studies pay attention to the motion characteristics of caisson breakwaters under a single periodical breaking wave excitation. And in the lifetime stability analysis of caisson breakwater, it is assumed that the caisson breakwater suffers storm wave excitation once annually in the design lifetime. However, the number of annual severe storm occurrence is a random variable. In this paper, a series of random waves are generated by the Wen Sheng-chang wave spectrum, and the histories of successive and long-term random wave forces are built up by using the improved Goda wave force model. It is assumed that the number of annual severe storm occurrence is in the Poisson distribution over the 50-year design lifetime, and the history of random wave excitation is generated for each storm by the wave spectrum. The response histories of the caisson breakwater to the random waves over 50-year design lifetime are calculated and taken as a set of samples. On the basis of the Monte Carlo simulation technique, a large number of samples can be obtained, and the probability assessment of the safety of the breakwater during the complete design lifetime is obtained by statistical analysis of a large number of samples. Finally, the procedure of probability assessment of the breakwater safety is illustrated by an example.     

Dynamic Stability Analysis of Caisson Breakwater in Lifetime Considering the Annual Frequency of Severe Storm

In the dynamic stability analysis of a caisson breakwater, most of current studies pay attention to the motion characteristics of caisson breakwaters under a single periodical breaking wave excitation. And in the lifetime stability analysis of caisson breakwater, it is assumed that the caisson breakwater suffers storm wave excitation once annually in the design lifetime. However, the number of annual severe storm occurrence is a random variable. In this paper, a series of random waves are generated by the Wen Sheng-chang wave spectrum, and the histories of successive and long-term random wave forces are built up by using the improved Goda wave force model. It is assumed that the number of annual severe storm occurrence is in the Poisson distribution over the 50-year design lifetime, and the history of random wave excitation is generated for each storm by the wave spectrum. The response histories of the caisson breakwater to the random waves over 50-year design lifetime are calculated and taken as a set of samples. On the basis of the Monte Carlo simulation technique, a large number of samples can be obtained, and the probability assessment of the safety of the breakwater during the complete design lifetime is obtained by statistical analysis of a large number of samples. Finally, the procedure of probability assessment of the breakwater safety is illustrated by an example.     

基于海浪谱的沉箱式防波堤动力分析方法

利用海浪谱JONSWAP谱生成随机波浪,并结合改进的波浪力时程模型生成一个连续的、持续时间相对较长的随机波浪力作用过程。假设五十年设计基准期内防波堤每年遭受一次风暴,利用波浪谱随机生成五十次风暴波浪作用过程,对防波堤五十年设计基准期的响应过程进行一次随机模拟,以此作为一个样本。经过对大量随机模拟产生的样本进行统计分析,实现对防波堤整个设计基准期内的安全度进行概率评估。最后,通过算例对该方法的应用进行了演示。     

A Probabilistic Method for Motion Analysis of Caisson Breakwaters

1 .IntroductionInrecent years ,especiallyfrom1994 when aninternational conference on breakwater design washeldinJapan,muchresearchonthe dynamic analysis of caisson breakwaters has been done ,and manyimportant progresses have been made .Oumeraci and Korten…     

Risk Assessment for Tuzla Naval Base Breakwater

1 .IntroductionTurkeywasstruckbytwomajorearthquakeeventsonAugust 1 7thandNovember 1 2th ,1 999,namedIzmit (Mw=7.4 )andD櫣ｚｃｅ (Mw=7.2 )earthquakes,respectively .ThestationsoperatedbytheGeneralDirectorateofDisasterAffairs,theKandilliObservatoryandEarthquakeResearchInstituteofIstanbulTechnicalUniversitymeasuredatleast 2 7stronggroundmotionsfortheIzmitearthquakewithin 2 0 0kmofthefault.AsignificantsegmentofthefaultrupturedintheareabetweenthewestofGolcukandtheeastofLakeSapanca .Inthesou…     

防波堤的人工神经网络Monte Carlo法可靠性分析

防波堤建设费用巨大,且一旦遭到破坏,后果甚为严重,因此,如何准确地计算防波堤的可靠性意义重大.随着人工神经网络理论的快速发展,人工神经网络方法在结构可靠性分析中的应用逐渐得到重视.基于神经网络的Monte Carlo法计算直立式防波堤的可靠性,概率意义明确.以秦皇岛典型直立堤为算例,采用基于神经网络的Monte Carlo法对直立式防波堤进行可靠性分析时,将直立堤滑动破坏和倾覆破坏的极限状态方程中的所有参数均作为变量处理,并将计算结果与Monte Carlo模拟的直接抽样法、重要抽样法以及独立变量JC法的计算结果进行对比.结果表明:基于神经网络的Monte Carlo法和Monte Carlo模拟的直接抽样法、重要抽样法计算结果相近,而比独立变量JC法的计算结果略低.     

Vibrating-Rocking Motion of Caisson Breakwater Under Breaking Wave Impact

The possible motions of a caisson breakwater under dynamic load excitation include vibrating, vibrating-sliding and vibrating-rocking motions. The models of vibrating motion and vibrating-sliding motion have been proposed in an early paper. In this paper, a model of vibrating-rocking motion of caisson breakwaters under breaking wave impact is presented, which can be used to simulate the histories of vibrating-rocking motion of caisson breakwaters. The effect of rocking motion on the displacement, rotation, sliding force and overturning moment of breakwaters is investigated. In case the overturning moment exceeds the stability moment of a caisson, the caisson may only rock. The caisson overturns only in case the rocking angle exceeds the critical angle. It is shown that the sliding force and overturning moment of breakwaters can be reduced effectively due to the rocking motion. It is proposed that some rocking motion should be allowed in breakwater design.     

Vibrating-Sliding Motion of Caisson Breakwaters Under Various Breaking Wave Impact Forces

Sliding is one of the principal failure types of caisson breakwaters and is an essential content of stability examination in caisson breakwater design. Herein, the mass-spring-dashpot model of caisson-base system is used to simulate the vi-brating-sliding motion of the caisson under various types of breaking wave impact forces, i.e., single peak impact force, double peak impact force, and shock-damping oscillation impact force. The effects of various breaking wave impacts and the sliding motion on the dynamic response behaviors of caisson breakwaters are investigated and the calculation of relevant system parameters is discussed. It is shown that the dynamic responses of the caisson are significantly different under different types of breaking wave impact forces even when the amplitudes of impact forces are equal. The amplitude of dynamic response of the caisson is lower under single peak impact excitation than that under double peak impact or shock-damping oscillation impact excitation. Though the disp     

近破波作用下沉箱式防波堤运动特性的模型实验研究

对近破波作用下沉箱式防波堤的运动特性进行了模型实验研究。实验中测量了沉箱模型与基床的摩擦系数、基床刚度和阻尼系数;不同水位情况下作用于沉箱模型上的近破波波压力时程;近破波作用下沉箱模型的位移和转角响应时程等,并与数学模型计算结果进行了比较分析。实验结果表明,若沉箱的滑移力大于沉箱与基床间的摩擦力,在连续波浪作用下,沉箱将连续出现间歇式滑移运动,数学模型可较好地模拟这一运动过程。     

Determining the stability of vertical breakwaters against sliding based on individual sliding distances during a storm

In this paper, the occurrence rate of caisson sliding of a vertical breakwater during a storm and the probabilistic distribution of the individual sliding distances are derived as functions of such important design variables as water depth, significant wave height, and caisson width. The expressions for various representative sliding distances such as the significant sliding distance are also derived. The derived statistical characteristics of individual sliding distances are then used for calculating the first passage probability of an allowable individual sliding distance during a storm. A method is also proposed to calculate the time-dependent first passage probability for the case where wave climate and mean water depth change with time. Finally, tentative design criteria for the allowable individual sliding distance are proposed. The proposed method is applied to fictitious breakwaters in different water depths near the Port of Hitachinaka in Japan. The time-dependent first passage probability is calculated for the next 50 years in which the wave height may increase due to climate change. The first passage probability increases as time elapses, as the water depth increases, and as the allowable individual sliding distance decreases. Comparison with a previous study that uses a performance-based design method shows that the allowable first passage probability should be in the range between 0.05 and 0.09. For the proposed method to be used in a practical design, however, more detailed study should be made to determine the allowable values of individual sliding distance, first passage probability, and representative sliding distance, by comparing with current design methods.     

软土地基沉箱防波堤失稳模式及稳定性分析方法

针对现阶段深水软黏土地基防波堤建设的设计理论和稳定性分析方法尚不成熟,结合实际工程,采用三维弹塑性有限元数值分析方法,研究在水平或竖直单一方向荷载以及复合加载条件下软黏土地基上沉箱防波堤的失稳模式,提出破坏包络线的稳定性判别方法。在波浪水平荷载作用下,深水软基上沉箱防波堤发生倾覆失稳破坏,失稳转动点为沉箱底面以下中轴线偏右的某点,不同于规范中规定的岩石或砂质地基沉箱倾覆转动点为其后踵点;在重力等竖向荷载作用下,沉箱的失稳模式为结构整体下陷,抛石基床及地基形成连贯的塑性区域,呈现较明显地冲剪破坏形式;在水平、竖向复合荷载作用下,软基上沉箱防波堤的破坏包络线由结构倾覆破坏线和地基承载力破坏线组成,包络线将荷载组合区分成稳定区、仅发生水平承载力不足倾覆破坏区、仅发生地基竖向承载力不足破坏区、同时发生水平承载力和地基竖向承载力不足破坏区4个区域。研究成果为深水软基沉箱防波堤建设提供参考和借鉴。     

An improved ‘Battjes’ method for predicting the probability of extreme waves

The Battjes method for predicting the 50 or 100-year design wave was developed to allow for the possibility that the highest wave in a 50 or 100 year period may occur during the second highest storm or even in lower storms. It uses the probability distribution of individual waves. It is first shown that a slightly different logical approach removes some of the problems encountered with the use of the method. It is then shown that it actually uses a different definition of return period to that used by the classic method because if two or more waves in a severe storm exceed H₅₀, then these are counted as separate events. A formula is developed which considers each storm as one event, but still takes account of the possibility of the highest wave in 50 years not coming from the most severe storm. Computation using this formula shows that it reduces H₅₀ by about 3% relative to the Battjes method.     

Calculation of Wave Pressure and Pressure Spectrum for Perforate-Pipe Breakwater

Standing waves are formed due to the reflection when waves meet vertical wall,thereforestrong structures are needed to keep the wall stability under the serious wave attack.For the improvementof the working condition and increase of the stability of the wall,the lower reflecting breakwaters have at-tracted close attention Reports mostly from Japanese researchers are often concerned with the wall ofcaisson equipped with open windows.In this paper a kind of hollow-pipe perforated breakwater is exam-ined which waves may partially perforate into the harbour basin.The wave in front of the wall can onlyform partial standing wave and wave force is reduced obviously.And the theoretical calculation of waveforce and analysis of wave force spectrum are all derived.Comparison between the results from theoreticalcalculation and hydraulic modeling shows reasonable agreement.     

深水工况下弧面胸墙沉箱堤的反射形态分析

为推广应用新型弧面胸墙沉箱堤,结合模型试验和数值模拟对比分析了深水工况下弧面胸墙沉箱堤和削角胸墙沉箱堤的反射形态。波面和波压的数值结果与试验数据吻合良好,验证了数值方法的有效性。反射系数表明,入射波浪在与弧面胸墙沉箱堤相互作用过程中的能量损耗最小,其反射强于削角胸墙沉箱堤。波面和流速包络图显示,两种堤型均在堤前形成了部分立波系统,腹点和节点以四分之一波长的距离增量交替出现,胸墙和直立部分产生的反射波存在相位差,导致初始腹点的位置向海侧偏移。弧面胸墙沉箱堤前叠合波的相位差影响最小,腹点包络高度最大,节点包络高度最小,反射效应最明显。两种堤型前中下层水流的周期平均速度均较小且对称,表明底床泥沙不会产生趋势性输移,但迎浪基床上方的环流系统可能引起局部冲刷。相对而言,弧面胸墙沉箱堤前的环流强度最弱,更有利于冲刷防护。     

Dynamic response and sliding distance of composite breakwaters under breaking and non-breaking wave attack

Over the last 15 years improved awareness of wave impact induced failures has focused attention on the need to account for the dynamic response of maritime structures to wave impact load. In this work a non-linear model is introduced that allows evaluating the effective design load and the potential sliding of caisson breakwater subject to both pulsating and impulsive wave loads. The caisson dynamics is modelled using a time-step numerical method to solve numerically the equations of motion for a rigid body founded on multiple non-linear springs having both horizontal and vertical stiffness. The model is first shown to correctly describe the dynamics of caisson breakwaters subject to wave attack, including nonlinear features of wave–structure–soil interaction. Predictions of sliding distances by the new method are then compared with measurements from physical model tests, showing very good agreement with observations. The model succeeds in describing the physics that stands behind the process and is fast, accurate and flexible enough to be suitable for performance design of caisson breakwaters.     

Nonlinear crest distribution for shallow water Stokes waves

This article concerns the calculation of nonlinear crest distribution for shallow water Stokes waves. The calculations have been carried out by incorporating a second order nonlinear wave model into an asymptotic analysis method. This is a new approach to the calculation of wave crest distribution, and, as all of the calculations are performed in the probability domain, avoids the need for long time-domain simulations. The accuracy and efficiency of this new approach for calculating the wave crest distribution are validated by comparing the results predicted using it with those predicted by using the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method, by using a previous Transformed Rayleigh method, by using some existing wave crest distribution formulas, and by using the measured surface elevation data at the Poseidon platform in the Japan Sea.     

Numerical Simulation on Oscillation-Sliding-Uplift Rock Coupled Motion of Caisson Breakwater Under Wave Excitation

Corresponding to the sliding and the overturning failure, the elementary motion modes of caisson breakwater include the horizontal-rotational oscillation coupled motion, the horizontal sliding-rotational oscillation coupled motion, the horizontal vibrating-uplift rocking coupled motion, and the horizontal sliding-uplift rocking coupled motion. The motion mode of a caisson will transform from one to another depending on the wave forces and the motion behaviors of the caisson. The numerical models of four motion modes of caisson are developed, and the numerical simulation procedure for joint motion process of various modes of caisson breakwater under wave excitation is presented and tested by a physical model experiment . It is concluded that the simulation procedure is reliable and can be applied to the dynamic stability analysis of caisson breakwaters.     

Numerical Simulation on Oscillation-Sliding-Uplift Rock Coupled Motion of Caisson Breakwater Under Wave Excitation

Corresponding to the sliding and the overturning failure, the elementary motion modes of caisson breakwater include the horizontal-rotational oscillation coupled motion, the horizontal sliding-rotational oscillation coupled motion, the horizontal vibrating-uplift rocking coupled motion, and the horizontal sliding- uplift rocking coupled motion. The motion mode of a caisson will transform from one to another depending on the wave forces and the motion behaviors of the caisson. The numerical models of four motion modes of caisson are developed, and the numerical simulation procedure for joint motion process of various modes of caisson breakwater under wave excitation is presented and tested by a physical model experiment. It is concluded that the simulation procedure is reliable and can be applied to the dynamic stability analysis of caisson breakwaters.     

沉箱式防波堤静力与动力稳定性设计体型分析

将沉箱式防波堤滑移和倾覆稳定性设计方法分为三类：静力设计方法、不允许沉箱出现滑移和摇摆角的动力设计方法、控制沉箱滑移量和摇摆角的动力设计方法。建立了满足给定抗滑和抗倾安全系数条件下，按静力设计方法确定沉箱尺度的控制方程，研究了波浪条件和安全系数取值对沉箱长宽比的影响。通过动力数值计算分析了沉箱长宽比对沉箱滑移量和摇摆角的影响，并与传统静力设计理论进行了比较，讨论了控制沉箱滑移量和摇摆角的动力设计方法的可行性。